Yeah he did after the GE, look back to the last parliament
What does anything in the last Parliament have to do with election pledges made this election?
You do realise people don't have a Tardis and that election pledges made in a campaign for this Parliament are for the forthcoming Parliament not the last one.
So you're mad at a politician because he honoured his pledge in full but doesn't have a time machine?
I'm not mad at anybody, I'll repeat the facts so you can keep up.
I stood against Elphicke and reminded him that he had previously voted against a referendum, he bizarrely denied it and claimed to be a firm Outer. Now he's come out in favour of In.
I appreciate you don't do comprehension, but it can all be verified.
Maybe to you but the reality is millions of jobs in the EU depend on our consumption of their goods. The day we vote to leave will also be the day that the CEOs of BMW, Daimler and VW break down Mrs Merkel's door and demand a free trade deal with us.
...unless they can get a better deal with China.
That is why the relative numbers are more important than the absolute.
Are you really claiming the UK is BMW's largest market?
If that was possible then they would have done it already in addition to exporting cars to the UK.
You're not very good at this business stuff are you.
Scott is entirely right that they hold both the Aces and the bigger stack as you need to look in percentage times. You should always look at costs and revenues in percentages not nominal terms.
And with that, I shall retire from the fray
You're still almost certainly wrong that trade barriers will be put up though. Even though we export more to them than they do to us, a trade war suits nobody. A deal would be in everyone's best interest. The only risk is if the French or others decide to cut off their nose to spite their face.
Yeah he did after the GE, look back to the last parliament
What does anything in the last Parliament have to do with election pledges made this election?
You do realise people don't have a Tardis and that election pledges made in a campaign for this Parliament are for the forthcoming Parliament not the last one.
So you're mad at a politician because he honoured his pledge in full but doesn't have a time machine?
I'm not mad at anybody, I'll repeat the facts so you can keep up.
I stood against Elphicke and reminded him that he had previously voted against a referendum, he bizarrely denied it and claimed to be a firm Outer. Now he's come out in favour of In.
I appreciate you don't do comprehension, but it can all be verified.
Its irrelevant though. He voted for a referendum, that is all that matters.
Scott is entirely right that they hold both the Aces and the bigger stack as you need to look in percentage times. You should always look at costs and revenues in percentages not nominal terms.
This argument over BMW walking away / not walking we away etc is very tiresome. Nobody will want to surrender a profitable market, so stay in or come out arrangements will be made. BMW will still.flog us cars & British business will still have to make stuff to eu regs.
That raises an interesting dynamic. What happens when we manufacture goods for the rest of the World markets ignoring EU regs
I believe we need to meet EU regs even if the export is not for the EU. But this is a tad moot since globally standards like FCC/CE standards are being standardised and would apply in any scenario.
The point getting missed is that manufacturing is only a small part of our economy and manufacturing for export to the EU is an even smaller part. Services are the vast bulk of our economy. Yet even local Services that have nothing to do with EU trade have to follow EU regs on entirely domestic issues that have zero to do with what the EU should be doing. Out we can write our own rules on those and that applies to far more of the economy than tinkering at the edges of global standards does.
That raises an interesting dynamic. What happens when we manufacture goods for the rest of the World markets ignoring EU regs
We won't. There will increasingly be acceptance of EU regs in other markets (as there already is, for that matter).
Whatever happens, we are virtually certain to continue to be subject to, or to benefit from (depending on how you look at it) EU type-approval standards. It would be so completely bonkers to go to all the trouble and complexity of setting up our own competing standards that it's just not going to happen.
Manufactured goods in general are almost irrelevant to the Leave/Remain question. In all conceivable options, there will be no tariffs and we'll stick to EU rules.
One exception: the only potential issue in that respect is about customs documentation. This is as important, perhaps more important for some industries, than tariffs are, as a potential barrier to trade. In some of the more extreme Leave scenarios, we might not have customs-free trade with our EU friends. That could be really quite damaging.
The EU, especially Jerry, sells a lot more to us than we do to them. The U.K. will hold the whip hand in negotiations with the EU post-liberation.
My point about a trade war was that it would certainly not be the UK holding the whip hand, given the relative size of the markets as we have now agreed
Yeah he did after the GE, look back to the last parliament
What does anything in the last Parliament have to do with election pledges made this election?
You do realise people don't have a Tardis and that election pledges made in a campaign for this Parliament are for the forthcoming Parliament not the last one.
So you're mad at a politician because he honoured his pledge in full but doesn't have a time machine?
I'm not mad at anybody, I'll repeat the facts so you can keep up.
I stood against Elphicke and reminded him that he had previously voted against a referendum, he bizarrely denied it and claimed to be a firm Outer. Now he's come out in favour of In.
I appreciate you don't do comprehension, but it can all be verified.
Its irrelevant though. He voted for a referendum, that is all that matters.
He voted for one AFTER the GE, before the GE he voted AGAINST.
Read it a couple of times until you understand it.
This argument over BMW walking away / not walking we away etc is very tiresome. Nobody will want to surrender a profitable market, so stay in or come out arrangements will be made. BMW will still.flog us cars & British business will still have to make stuff to eu regs.
That raises an interesting dynamic. What happens when we manufacture goods for the rest of the World markets ignoring EU regs
We wouldn't do that though, the gain would be for companies who don't export or do business only with the US or China. If the goods are going to be sold globally then they will comply globally. It's domestic service providers that have the biggest win IMO.
Mr. D, as early as this? Are you in the US/Canada?
Yes, so feel somewhat guilty voting, although I may be back next year. Im 80% leave, my main worry is losing the ability to get a job easily in Europe if I so wanted. Although even with a visa I suppose it would still be relatively straightforward.
Scott is entirely right that they hold both the Aces and the bigger stack as you need to look in percentage times. You should always look at costs and revenues in percentages not nominal terms.
And with that, I shall retire from the fray
Battered , bruised and punch drunk.
One drink can do all that? I'll have what he's having!
The EU, especially Jerry, sells a lot more to us than we do to them. The U.K. will hold the whip hand in negotiations with the EU post-liberation.
My point about a trade war was that it would certainly not be the UK holding the whip hand, given the relative size of the markets as we have now agreed
Our huge trade deficit with the EU supports literally millions of jobs on the continent, if you can't see that then I'm really not sure what to say.
That raises an interesting dynamic. What happens when we manufacture goods for the rest of the World markets ignoring EU regs
We won't. There will increasingly be acceptance of EU regs in other markets (as there already is, for that matter).
Whatever happens, we are virtually certain to continue to be subject to, or to benefit from (depending on how you look at it) EU type-approval standards. It would be so completely bonkers to go to all the trouble and complexity of setting up our own competing standards that it's just not going to happen.
Manufactured goods in general are almost irrelevant to the Leave/Remain question. In all conceivable options, there will be no tariffs and we'll stick to EU rules.
On exception: the only potential issue in that respect is about customs documentation. This is as important, perhaps more important for some industries, than tariffs are, as a potential barrier to trade. In some of the more extreme Leave scenarios, we might not have customs-free trade with our EU friends. That could be really quite damaging.
Of course many if these regs are not EU regs. They are international regs decided by organisations above the EU. The big difference for us would be that unlike St the moment where the EU has our voting rights on these bodies we would have the voting right ourselves.
Good poll for Cruz in Texas, probably not a decisive enough lead though to make big difference.
Cruz 37, Trump 29
The Donald coming in on BF POTUS market.
Reckon that would be about a 100/50 split in delegates? Rubio at 15% might cross the 20% qualification threshold in one or two districts but that'd be it.
Good poll for Cruz in Texas, probably not a decisive enough lead though to make big difference.
Cruz 37, Trump 29
The Donald coming in on BF POTUS market.
Reckon that would be about a 100/50 split in delegates? Rubio at 15% might cross the 20% qualification threshold in one or two districts but that'd be it.
I've got 90:60, but wouldn't be surprised by your figures.
3x48 hour junior doctor strikes coming up I see... wonder how this will interact with the referendum campaign. Obviously not correlated, but probably one of the few domestic political issues that can't just be buried beneath endless EU debates, and possibly puts Cameron on the wrong side of public opinion on a second issue which may in turn undermine his "trustedness" on the Remain argument (I realise many here don't necessarily see the doctors as being on the right side of this dispute but their public support still appears strong).
I see the keyboard warriors are still out in force..every one of them would have got a better deal than Cameron..even ones cat would have done better..ya gorra larf.
I see the keyboard warriors are still out in force..every one of them would have got a better deal than Cameron..even ones cat would have done better..ya gorra larf.
Yeah he did after the GE, look back to the last parliament
What does anything in the last Parliament have to do with election pledges made this election?
You do realise people don't have a Tardis and that election pledges made in a campaign for this Parliament are for the forthcoming Parliament not the last one.
So you're mad at a politician because he honoured his pledge in full but doesn't have a time machine?
I'm not mad at anybody, I'll repeat the facts so you can keep up.
I stood against Elphicke and reminded him that he had previously voted against a referendum, he bizarrely denied it and claimed to be a firm Outer. Now he's come out in favour of In.
I appreciate you don't do comprehension, but it can all be verified.
Its irrelevant though. He voted for a referendum, that is all that matters.
He voted for one AFTER the GE, before the GE he voted AGAINST.
Read it a couple of times until you understand it.
What he did before the referendum has zero bearing or relevance to any pledges he made during it. Only what he did AFTER matters.
I see the keyboard warriors are still out in force..every one of them would have got a better deal than Cameron..even ones cat would have done better..ya gorra larf.
Mr Meeks claimed recently there was a Leave plant on here, I'm outing him as Scott_P
I'm happy to listen to decent arguments for Remain, but these ones are just scaremongering and farcical.
Here are some:
1. Although modest, actually the negotiated deal codifies specifically the non-ever closer union relationship between the EU and the UK.
2. We need to think carefully whether we will have more or less negotiating power inside the EU or outside it. For example, if up for discussion amongst EU members was the issue of hipster beard trimmer regulations, whereby only hipster beard trimmers which complied with those regulations could be sold within the EU, would we prefer to be within the EU helping to formulate those regulations, or would we be happy to receive a copy of those regulations and all our hipster beard trimmer manufacturers would have to conform to them if we wanted to sell them within the EU?
3. Last year, as @Charles is keen to point out, we won a lawsuit which prevented the ECB repatriating all euro-denominated clearing institutions back to the Eurozone as it violated the principle of the single market. If we were outside the EU do we think we could win that lawsuit?
4. Is the alternative going to be transformationally better? Will EEA/EFTA solve the eg. sovereignty or border control issues we currently have with the EU? I think not, especially of course the border control issues.
Now of course, there is a school of thought on here (you know who you are) who think the leaders of the EU meet regularly in a nearby volcano, each stroking their own EU-regulated Siamese cat, all plotting the downfall of the UK and the destruction of its institutions. I have no answer to these people, save to say it seems unlikely. However, if you agree with them: vote Leave.
Good poll for Cruz in Texas, probably not a decisive enough lead though to make big difference.
Cruz 37, Trump 29
The Donald coming in on BF POTUS market.
Reckon that would be about a 100/50 split in delegates? Rubio at 15% might cross the 20% qualification threshold in one or two districts but that'd be it.
I've got 90:60, but wouldn't be surprised by your figures.
Even if we go with the bigger lead at 100:50, Cruz's home state would only just cancel out Trump's win in S Carolina. It is pretty much game over now, isn't it as long as Rubio and Cruz are both in the field (and probably even if one withdraws, which isn't likely any time soon).
Good poll for Cruz in Texas, probably not a decisive enough lead though to make big difference.
Cruz 37, Trump 29
The Donald coming in on BF POTUS market.
Reckon that would be about a 100/50 split in delegates? Rubio at 15% might cross the 20% qualification threshold in one or two districts but that'd be it.
Cruz looks the most likely to hold his own state against the Donald, he's probably going to kill Rubio's chances in Florida though.
The EU, especially Jerry, sells a lot more to us than we do to them. The U.K. will hold the whip hand in negotiations with the EU post-liberation.
My point about a trade war was that it would certainly not be the UK holding the whip hand, given the relative size of the markets as we have now agreed
Except for the facts that we have full employment and would have a new ability to open up other markets while the EU is mired with chronic unemployment and will have no more new abilities than it already had.
So realistically honest negotiations suit everyone.
There will be some interesting contortions when the budget has to be puffed up whilst simultaneously reminding us how in hock we are to the benevolent shoppers of Germany.
I see the keyboard warriors are still out in force..every one of them would have got a better deal than Cameron..even ones cat would have done better..ya gorra larf.
Neville Chamberlain could have got a better deal than Dave. Cameron is a national embarrassment who should join his hero Blair on the lucrative phoney lecture circuit.
MD Quite right.. it would be better if there was great deal more discussion and a lot less carping.. and chest beating..It is like arriving at your local pub at ten minutes to closing time to find all the customers are rolling drunk..and incoherent..except to themselves..
Good poll for Cruz in Texas, probably not a decisive enough lead though to make big difference.
Cruz 37, Trump 29
The Donald coming in on BF POTUS market.
Reckon that would be about a 100/50 split in delegates? Rubio at 15% might cross the 20% qualification threshold in one or two districts but that'd be it.
Cruz looks the most likely to hold his own state against the Donald, he's probably going to kill Rubio's chances in Florida though.
If you can't win your own state you shouldn't be in the race.
Problems for Cruz are:
1. Florida isn't until March 15, so a lot of delegates have gone if Rubio waits until then before withdrawing; 2. Rubio's vote won't necessarily transfer directly to the ultra-conservative Cruz anyway and with Trump at 38% nationally, he wouldn't need all that many of them (and Kasich's) to hit 50%.
Mr Meeks claimed recently there was a Leave plant on here, I'm outing him as Scott_P
I'm happy to listen to decent arguments for Remain, but these ones are just scaremongering and farcical.
Here are some:
1. Although modest, actually the negotiated deal codifies specifically the non-ever closer union relationship between the EU and the UK.
2. We need to think carefully whether we will have more or less negotiating power inside the EU or outside it. For example, if up for discussion amongst EU members was the issue of hipster beard trimmer regulations, whereby only hipster beard trimmers which complied with those regulations could be sold within the EU, would we prefer to be within the EU helping to formulate those regulations, or would we be happy to receive a copy of those regulations and all our hipster beard trimmer manufacturers would have to conform to them if we wanted to sell them within the EU?
3. Last year, as @Charles is keen to point out, we won a lawsuit which prevented the ECB repatriating all euro-denominated clearing institutions back to the Eurozone as it violated the principle of the single market. If we were outside the EU do we think we could win that lawsuit?
4. Is the alternative going to be transformationally better? Will EEA/EFTA solve the eg. sovereignty or border control issues we currently have with the EU? I think not, especially of course the border control issues.
Now of course, there is a school of thought on here (you know who you are) who think the leaders of the EU meet regularly in a nearby volcano, each stroking their own EU-regulated Siamese cat, all plotting the downfall of the UK and the destruction of its institutions. I have no answer to these people, save to say it seems unlikely. However, if you agree with them: vote Leave.
1. Its only symbolic. We will have new integration just from Eurozone passing laws for us, which we can do nothing about.
2. We havenmore negotiating power when we're not being blocked by French and other EU reservations, like what Mandy was at last international trade talks.
3. We would lose the lawsuit but could innovate round restrictions as we have done with US dollar market
4 A bilateral trade deal would mean a lot more sovereignty. Even in the EEA we'd avoid 91% of regulation and be outside ECJ.
Yeah he did after the GE, look back to the last parliament
What does anything in the last Parliament have to do with election pledges made this election?
You do realise people don't have a Tardis and that election pledges made in a campaign for this Parliament are for the forthcoming Parliament not the last one.
So you're mad at a politician because he honoured his pledge in full but doesn't have a time machine?
I'm not mad at anybody, I'll repeat the facts so you can keep up.
I stood against Elphicke and reminded him that he had previously voted against a referendum, he bizarrely denied it and claimed to be a firm Outer. Now he's come out in favour of In.
I appreciate you don't do comprehension, but it can all be verified.
Its irrelevant though. He voted for a referendum, that is all that matters.
He voted for one AFTER the GE, before the GE he voted AGAINST.
Read it a couple of times until you understand it.
What he did before the referendum has zero bearing or relevance to any pledges he made during it. Only what he did AFTER matters.
@Philip_Thompson - I know you haven't made a final decision yet and, I just wanted to say, I'm delighted you're seriously considering joining us Leavers.
I look forward to, hopefully, campaigning together with you.
The EU, especially Jerry, sells a lot more to us than we do to them.
Scott_P:
No, they really don't
Yes, they don't. I'll try again, and type slowly...
What percentage of UK exports goes to the EU? Clue, it's a big number. We sell them lots of our stuff
What percentage of EU exports come to the UK? Clue, it's not a big number. They don't sell us lots of stuff
The EU, does not sell us a lot more to us than we do to them. We are a small EU customer. They are a huge UK customer.
Sorry if this is too complicated for some
I confess I hadn't thought of it like that before, and clearly nor had a lot of other esteemed posters who don't understand the point you are making. (Although you aren't trying very hard to explain it, and I suspect you are enjoying it...)
Take Austria as a random example
The proportion of their exports which go to the UK - i.e. the ones which may be affected by Brexit - is pretty small. All other Austrian exports are unaffected.
But for Britain, the relevant figure is ALSO the proportion which could be affected by Brexit not just what we export to Austria
So Austria is much less affected by Brexit than we are.
Repeat for all other EU nations.
Ergo, Britain is much more affected by Brexit than any other EU country. The comparison of British exports to the EU and total EU exports to Britain is far less relevant.
hmmm. But I still think the absolute figure for German exports to the UK is big enough for them to care at least a bit that trade should continue to flourish
Yeah he did after the GE, look back to the last parliament
What does anything in the last Parliament have to do with election pledges made this election?
You do realise people don't have a Tardis and that election pledges made in a campaign for this Parliament are for the forthcoming Parliament not the last one.
So you're mad at a politician because he honoured his pledge in full but doesn't have a time machine?
I'm not mad at anybody, I'll repeat the facts so you can keep up.
I stood against Elphicke and reminded him that he had previously voted against a referendum, he bizarrely denied it and claimed to be a firm Outer. Now he's come out in favour of In.
I appreciate you don't do comprehension, but it can all be verified.
Its irrelevant though. He voted for a referendum, that is all that matters.
He voted for one AFTER the GE, before the GE he voted AGAINST.
Read it a couple of times until you understand it.
What he did before the referendum has zero bearing or relevance to any pledges he made during it. Only what he did AFTER matters.
So he did what you wanted after. Job done.
Great stuff Mr Thompson!
Indeed. Had he pledged to vote for a referendum in the 2010 campaign then voting against in the 2010-15 Parliament would have been relevant. But that isn't what you've written. He made a pledge and honoured it and that is all we can ask from our politicians.
3x48 hour junior doctor strikes coming up I see... wonder how this will interact with the referendum campaign. Obviously not correlated, but probably one of the few domestic political issues that can't just be buried beneath endless EU debates, and possibly puts Cameron on the wrong side of public opinion on a second issue which may in turn undermine his "trustedness" on the Remain argument (I realise many here don't necessarily see the doctors as being on the right side of this dispute but their public support still appears strong).
Yep... The general public see an attack by evil tories on the NHS. Those with a bit more of a clue see another pointless reorganisation being implemented incompetently... Either way it will impact the remain vote if leave becomes an anti-government or anti-politician vote
Mr Meeks claimed recently there was a Leave plant on here, I'm outing him as Scott_P
I'm happy to listen to decent arguments for Remain, but these ones are just scaremongering and farcical.
Here are some:
1. Although modest, actually the negotiated deal codifies specifically the non-ever closer union relationship between the EU and the UK.
2. We need to think carefully whether we will have more or less negotiating power inside the EU or outside it. For example, if up for discussion amongst EU members was the issue of hipster beard trimmer regulations, whereby only hipster beard trimmers which complied with those regulations could be sold within the EU, would we prefer to be within the EU helping to formulate those regulations, or would we be happy to receive a copy of those regulations and all our hipster beard trimmer manufacturers would have to conform to them if we wanted to sell them within the EU?
3. Last year, as @Charles is keen to point out, we won a lawsuit which prevented the ECB repatriating all euro-denominated clearing institutions back to the Eurozone as it violated the principle of the single market. If we were outside the EU do we think we could win that lawsuit?
4. Is the alternative going to be transformationally better? Will EEA/EFTA solve the eg. sovereignty or border control issues we currently have with the EU? I think not, especially of course the border control issues.
Now of course, there is a school of thought on here (you know who you are) who think the leaders of the EU meet regularly in a nearby volcano, each stroking their own EU-regulated Siamese cat, all plotting the downfall of the UK and the destruction of its institutions. I have no answer to these people, save to say it seems unlikely. However, if you agree with them: vote Leave.
1. Its only symbolic. We will have new integration just from Eurozone passing laws for us, which we can do nothing about.
2. We havenmore negotiating power when we're not being blocked by French and other EU reservations, like what Mandy was at last international trade talks.
3. We would lose the lawsuit but could innovate round restrictions as we have done with US dollar market
4 A bilateral trade deal would mean a lot more sovereignty. Even in the EEA we'd avoid 91% of regulation and be outside ECJ.
Bad negotiation, yes I get it, with 28 members it's almost certain everyone will be disappointed.
But talking about trading with the EU, I still don't see why we would prefer to have no influence in the regulations, rather than some, however inexpertly negotiated.
3x48 hour junior doctor strikes coming up I see... wonder how this will interact with the referendum campaign. Obviously not correlated, but probably one of the few domestic political issues that can't just be buried beneath endless EU debates, and possibly puts Cameron on the wrong side of public opinion on a second issue which may in turn undermine his "trustedness" on the Remain argument (I realise many here don't necessarily see the doctors as being on the right side of this dispute but their public support still appears strong).
Yep... The general public see an attack by evil tories on the NHS. Those with a bit more of a clue see another pointless reorganisation being implemented incompetently... Either way it will impact the remain vote if leave becomes an anti-government or anti-politician vote
I'd put this as a known unknown as it could also hurt the leave vote if TUC campaigns to "stay in the EU to save worker's rights from the evil Tories" work. Of course that is one of the main reasons I would vote leave, so we could have Tory versions of workers rights rather than socialist European ones.
Good poll for Cruz in Texas, probably not a decisive enough lead though to make big difference.
Cruz 37, Trump 29
The Donald coming in on BF POTUS market.
Reckon that would be about a 100/50 split in delegates? Rubio at 15% might cross the 20% qualification threshold in one or two districts but that'd be it.
I've got 90:60, but wouldn't be surprised by your figures.
Even if we go with the bigger lead at 100:50, Cruz's home state would only just cancel out Trump's win in S Carolina. It is pretty much game over now, isn't it as long as Rubio and Cruz are both in the field (and probably even if one withdraws, which isn't likely any time soon).
We need a few more polls, specifically in AL and TN, but at this juncture it looks like Trump will come out of Super Tuesday with at least a 2:1 dominance over Cruz, with Rubio a very distant third...
3x48 hour junior doctor strikes coming up I see... wonder how this will interact with the referendum campaign. Obviously not correlated, but probably one of the few domestic political issues that can't just be buried beneath endless EU debates, and possibly puts Cameron on the wrong side of public opinion on a second issue which may in turn undermine his "trustedness" on the Remain argument (I realise many here don't necessarily see the doctors as being on the right side of this dispute but their public support still appears strong).
Yep... The general public see an attack by evil tories on the NHS. Those with a bit more of a clue see another pointless reorganisation being implemented incompetently... Either way it will impact the remain vote if leave becomes an anti-government or anti-politician vote
The Doctors need to be careful. They have had support but 48 hour strikes could quickly evaporate that support. I do not see it having any effect on the referendum
Some bad news for those awaiting the Nevada caucus GOP results, they start at night and they last 2-4 hours. So first results come in at 3 AM and most caucus sites finish at 5 AM London time, if there are any entrance polls then they should come out at 1 AM, also turnout was 1.9% in 2012 and it took 3 days to finish counting the votes.
3x48 hour junior doctor strikes coming up I see... wonder how this will interact with the referendum campaign. Obviously not correlated, but probably one of the few domestic political issues that can't just be buried beneath endless EU debates, and possibly puts Cameron on the wrong side of public opinion on a second issue which may in turn undermine his "trustedness" on the Remain argument (I realise many here don't necessarily see the doctors as being on the right side of this dispute but their public support still appears strong).
Yep... The general public see an attack by evil tories on the NHS. Those with a bit more of a clue see another pointless reorganisation being implemented incompetently... Either way it will impact the remain vote if leave becomes an anti-government or anti-politician vote
The Doctors need to be careful. They have had support but 48 hour strikes could quickly evaporate that support. I do not see it having any effect on the referendum
I suppose if it's a choice between just rolling over, or trying to fight, giving the chance of possibly winning, or possibly becoming unpopular and then having to roll over there's not a whole lot of downside in having a go. It will be interesting to see if the public actually support doctors, or just support the idea of supporting doctors until it affects their quality of life.
@Philip_Thompson - I know you haven't made a final decision yet and, I just wanted to say, I'm delighted you're seriously considering joining us Leavers.
I look forward to, hopefully, campaigning together with you.
Thanks.
Other than the risk of this turning into a proxy referendum on immigration if Farage's mob has anything to do with it, I'm still concerned about this becoming a running sore 90's style within the Tories and don't see any plausible path to a Leave victory unless a swathe of left-wing voters can be convinced.
However I think so long as this isn't a proxy referendum on migration that I should vote how I believe and forget about those concerns and am currently leaning Leave which is totally new and weird. Genuinely torn though which makes me sympathetic with MPs who are attacked here for being disingenuous for appearing so themselves.
I see the keyboard warriors are still out in force..every one of them would have got a better deal than Cameron..even ones cat would have done better..ya gorra larf.
Neville Chamberlain could have got a better deal than Dave. Cameron is a national embarrassment who should join his hero Blair on the lucrative phoney lecture circuit.
Why is it that the only comments that Leavers can make are insults?
Norway implements less than 10% of the EU's regulations (it isn't even compelled to do that much) and chooses for itself on everything else. So how is that resigning sovereignty?
If it wants to sell anything in the EU, the products have to comply with EU regs they can't write.
We sell quite a lot of stuff to the EU...
If we want to sell anything to the USA, the products have to comply with USA regs we can't write.
I run a small business that does no international trade. Yet I need to observe a whole swathe of European regulations that have nothing to do with trade. If we were in the EEA we could decide on those laws ourselves.
But WOULD we adopt our own measures? Your small business might only trade domestically, but thousands of others will trade with the EU. The demand for UK law to coincide with EU standards would be deafening. And even if it wasn't, companies would mostly choose to adopt EU standards for ease and convenience. And anything imported to the UK from the EU would be of a common EU standard, so our consumers would continue to be used to products meeting EU standards.
For selling into Europe we will need to comply with EU regulations.
But for other stuff we wouldn't - both trade and general.
So - to pick a silly example - we could sell milk in pints and potatoes in pounds if we wanted to
Bad negotiation, yes I get it, with 28 members it's almost certain everyone will be disappointed.
But talking about trading with the EU, I still don't see why we would prefer to have no influence in the regulations, rather than some, however inexpertly negotiated.
We wouldn't have no influence. For those regulations that are negotiated at an international level we would have far more influence than we do now. For those regulations that are formulated and negotiated at an EU level concerning the single market - the only ones where the EEA agreement would apply - we would still have full participation in the instigation and formulation.
At the briefing in Brussels, Mr Schinas, a former Greek MEP, said: 'Thank you for repeating that we are bureaucrats in our faces.
‘I have told you repeatedly that we do not like that term for the European civil service, for the many thousands of colleagues who work for the institutions. We do not think bureaucrat is the way to describe our job.
'Each time you will use the term bureaucrat, I will answer back that we are civil servants working for the interests of all 28 member states.'
Norway implements less than 10% of the EU's regulations (it isn't even compelled to do that much) and chooses for itself on everything else. So how is that resigning sovereignty?
If it wants to sell anything in the EU, the products have to comply with EU regs they can't write.
We sell quite a lot of stuff to the EU...
If we want to sell anything to the USA, the products have to comply with USA regs we can't write.
I run a small business that does no international trade. Yet I need to observe a whole swathe of European regulations that have nothing to do with trade. If we were in the EEA we could decide on those laws ourselves.
But WOULD we adopt our own measures? Your small business might only trade domestically, but thousands of others will trade with the EU. The demand for UK law to coincide with EU standards would be deafening. And even if it wasn't, companies would mostly choose to adopt EU standards for ease and convenience. And anything imported to the UK from the EU would be of a common EU standard, so our consumers would continue to be used to products meeting EU standards.
For selling into Europe we will need to comply with EU regulations.
But for other stuff we wouldn't - both trade and general.
So - to pick a silly example - we could sell milk in pints and potatoes in pounds if we wanted to
I'm pretty sure I buy a 4 pint bottle of milk and a quarter pounder burger already.
BTW the proposed LSE/Deutsche Borse merger is probably more relevant to the UK's position as a financial centre than the referendum (which I think will result in a Remain vote).
Mind you, for reasons that I'm sure @Charles will understand, I very much hope that DB's current Chief Executive does not take a prominent position in any merged entity.
Agreed!
I'm always suspicious of Goldman Sachs alumni, although I suspect you have a clearer view on Carsten's weaknesses* than I do!
Have they said where the primary listing would be? I'd very much hope it will be in London...!
I am struggling trying to understand your position Mr. Thompson. Are you saying that you will vote based on the people or on the issues?
Both. If this is a proxy referendum on getting rid of migrants and leaving the EEA altogether to facilitate that then I will not just vote but possibly campaign against that. If that nastiness wins it will harm the country.
If this is a referendum on regaining sovereignty whole keeping European free trade then I am quite pleased with that.
Getting rid of migrants?
Get a grip man ffs
It's what I see quite regularly from BNP, UKIP and GO supporters. I'm not voting for any of that bunch.
That's right, you're not voting for any bunch.
On June 24th the bunch will be conservatives.
If Cameron loses a campaign based on anti migrant talk then he'll have to be replaced by a hardliner who is anti migrant.
If Cameron loses a campaign based on pro sovereignty talk then he'll have to be replaced by someone who is probably sovereignty.
If you don't see the difference between those I don't know how much clearer it can be made.
If we vote Leave there's a good chance Cameron will stand down, the Conservatives will elect a new leader who becomes PM. The chances of that govt deporting migrants is zero.
The chance of the new government imposing visa restrictions on new migrants and other European nations doing the same is not zero. It is a lot higher if that is the campaign argument that wins the referendum.
So you've backtracked on deporting migrants, thanks.
I never meant deporting migrants so sorry if you misinterpreted what I wrote to mean that.
Well you wrote
If this is a proxy referendum on getting rid of migrants
He's wrong- Malcolm told us Swinney would never settle!
usual Tory lies. I said not on the terms that were on offer, as predicted these have been altered to SNP position.
@FaisalIslam: Scottish Govt NOT got preferred method of adjusting block grant (per capita indexation), but claim to have "beaten HMT" as no cuts for 5 yrs
Turnout in Scotland could be disappointing because of the Holyrood election being held just a few weeks earlier. Even that only had a 50% turnout last time.
He's wrong- Malcolm told us Swinney would never settle!
usual Tory lies. I said not on the terms that were on offer, as predicted these have been altered to SNP position.
@FaisalIslam: Scottish Govt NOT got preferred method of adjusting block grant (per capita indexation), but claim to have "beaten HMT" as no cuts for 5 yrs
Well, they would say that, wouldn't they.....
That's pretty limp by the SNP. I wonder what their internal polling is saying.
The EU, especially Jerry, sells a lot more to us than we do to them.
Scott_P:
No, they really don't
Yes, they don't. I'll try again, and type slowly...
What percentage of UK exports goes to the EU? Clue, it's a big number. We sell them lots of our stuff
What percentage of EU exports come to the UK? Clue, it's not a big number. They don't sell us lots of stuff
The EU, does not sell us a lot more to us than we do to them. We are a small EU customer. They are a huge UK customer.
Sorry if this is too complicated for some
I confess I hadn't thought of it like that before, and clearly nor had a lot of other esteemed posters who don't understand the point you are making. (Although you aren't trying very hard to explain it, and I suspect you are enjoying it...)
Take Austria as a random example
The proportion of their exports which go to the UK - i.e. the ones which may be affected by Brexit - is pretty small. All other Austrian exports are unaffected.
But for Britain, the relevant figure is ALSO the proportion which could be affected by Brexit not just what we export to Austria
So Austria is much less affected by Brexit than we are.
Repeat for all other EU nations.
Ergo, Britain is much more affected by Brexit than any other EU country. The comparison of British exports to the EU and total EU exports to Britain is far less relevant.
hmmm. But I still think the absolute figure for German exports to the UK is big enough for them to care at least a bit that trade should continue to flourish
One aspect of these sums is that some of the EU27 may be very happy to negotiate a fairly open free trade agreement (Ireland, Germany, Netherlands) but others may be much less keen unless free movement continues, welfare rights etc (some of Eastern Europe). A free trade area could be blocked even if a majority of the EU wanted it. The negotiations and wheeler-dealing would just be beginning.
Comments
I stood against Elphicke and reminded him that he had previously voted against a referendum, he bizarrely denied it and claimed to be a firm Outer. Now he's come out in favour of In.
I appreciate you don't do comprehension, but it can all be verified.
You're not very good at this business stuff are you.
If anyone wants to work on it with me, let me know.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/112R0zDRQLC2cxE1op0TY-IBq_PTtcxpwgfbu87DI45w/edit?usp=sharing
The point getting missed is that manufacturing is only a small part of our economy and manufacturing for export to the EU is an even smaller part. Services are the vast bulk of our economy. Yet even local Services that have nothing to do with EU trade have to follow EU regs on entirely domestic issues that have zero to do with what the EU should be doing. Out we can write our own rules on those and that applies to far more of the economy than tinkering at the edges of global standards does.
Whatever happens, we are virtually certain to continue to be subject to, or to benefit from (depending on how you look at it) EU type-approval standards. It would be so completely bonkers to go to all the trouble and complexity of setting up our own competing standards that it's just not going to happen.
Manufactured goods in general are almost irrelevant to the Leave/Remain question. In all conceivable options, there will be no tariffs and we'll stick to EU rules.
One exception: the only potential issue in that respect is about customs documentation. This is as important, perhaps more important for some industries, than tariffs are, as a potential barrier to trade. In some of the more extreme Leave scenarios, we might not have customs-free trade with our EU friends. That could be really quite damaging.
This started here My point about a trade war was that it would certainly not be the UK holding the whip hand, given the relative size of the markets as we have now agreed
Read it a couple of times until you understand it.
If we can negotiate trade deals with the US, why not the EU? If the EU can make deals with Mexico, Colombia, Canada and South Korea, why not us?
Edited extra bit: Mr. D, one hopes you're enjoying your time in the colonies
I may swap Carson out for him, but he has incomplete polling data which could screw up the sheet.
Grrr! I wish there were only four viable candidates...
I'll get my coat........
So he did what you wanted after. Job done.
The cat would have been prepared to walk away.
1. Although modest, actually the negotiated deal codifies specifically the non-ever closer union relationship between the EU and the UK.
2. We need to think carefully whether we will have more or less negotiating power inside the EU or outside it. For example, if up for discussion amongst EU members was the issue of hipster beard trimmer regulations, whereby only hipster beard trimmers which complied with those regulations could be sold within the EU, would we prefer to be within the EU helping to formulate those regulations, or would we be happy to receive a copy of those regulations and all our hipster beard trimmer manufacturers would have to conform to them if we wanted to sell them within the EU?
3. Last year, as @Charles is keen to point out, we won a lawsuit which prevented the ECB repatriating all euro-denominated clearing institutions back to the Eurozone as it violated the principle of the single market. If we were outside the EU do we think we could win that lawsuit?
4. Is the alternative going to be transformationally better? Will EEA/EFTA solve the eg. sovereignty or border control issues we currently have with the EU? I think not, especially of course the border control issues.
Now of course, there is a school of thought on here (you know who you are) who think the leaders of the EU meet regularly in a nearby volcano, each stroking their own EU-regulated Siamese cat, all plotting the downfall of the UK and the destruction of its institutions. I have no answer to these people, save to say it seems unlikely. However, if you agree with them: vote Leave.
So realistically honest negotiations suit everyone.
Problems for Cruz are:
1. Florida isn't until March 15, so a lot of delegates have gone if Rubio waits until then before withdrawing;
2. Rubio's vote won't necessarily transfer directly to the ultra-conservative Cruz anyway and with Trump at 38% nationally, he wouldn't need all that many of them (and Kasich's) to hit 50%.
2. We havenmore negotiating power when we're not being blocked by French and other EU reservations, like what Mandy was at last international trade talks.
3. We would lose the lawsuit but could innovate round restrictions as we have done with US dollar market
4 A bilateral trade deal would mean a lot more sovereignty. Even in the EEA we'd avoid 91% of regulation and be outside ECJ.
@BBCsarahsmith: We have a deal! #fiscalframework just waiting for George @George_Osborne and @NicolaSturgeon to give us the details
I look forward to, hopefully, campaigning together with you.
Take Austria as a random example
The proportion of their exports which go to the UK - i.e. the ones which may be affected by Brexit - is pretty small. All other Austrian exports are unaffected.
But for Britain, the relevant figure is ALSO the proportion which could be affected by Brexit not just what we export to Austria
So Austria is much less affected by Brexit than we are.
Repeat for all other EU nations.
Ergo, Britain is much more affected by Brexit than any other EU country. The comparison of British exports to the EU and total EU exports to Britain is far less relevant.
hmmm. But I still think the absolute figure for German exports to the UK is big enough for them to care at least a bit that trade should continue to flourish
But talking about trading with the EU, I still don't see why we would prefer to have no influence in the regulations, rather than some, however inexpertly negotiated.
He has just come back to me with a very thoughtful and considered response as to why he is voting to Leave.
Thankfully my local MP is backing Leave as well.
As must the list of shame.
Google Sheet
So first results come in at 3 AM and most caucus sites finish at 5 AM London time, if there are any entrance polls then they should come out at 1 AM, also turnout was 1.9% in 2012 and it took 3 days to finish counting the votes.
#ElectionNerd
Cheeky little Monkees the lot of you ....
Any pb'ers in my area please do get in touch with me on vanilla if you wish to coordinate local Leave campaign efforts!
Other than the risk of this turning into a proxy referendum on immigration if Farage's mob has anything to do with it, I'm still concerned about this becoming a running sore 90's style within the Tories and don't see any plausible path to a Leave victory unless a swathe of left-wing voters can be convinced.
However I think so long as this isn't a proxy referendum on migration that I should vote how I believe and forget about those concerns and am currently leaning Leave which is totally new and weird. Genuinely torn though which makes me sympathetic with MPs who are attacked here for being disingenuous for appearing so themselves.
Thanks guys
But for other stuff we wouldn't - both trade and general.
So - to pick a silly example - we could sell milk in pints and potatoes in pounds if we wanted to
Though the metric system is far superior.
My EuroARSE will be making projections exclusively on PB
I'm always suspicious of Goldman Sachs alumni, although I suspect you have a clearer view on Carsten's weaknesses* than I do!
Have they said where the primary listing would be? I'd very much hope it will be in London...!
* And strengths, of course. Must be fair.
Well, they would say that, wouldn't they.....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-35641766
"Twitter users have described an "explosion" as well as "loads of dust"."
Ahem.
Germany would lose £30.4bn.
The UK would only lose out with Ireland, Malta and Cyprus
http://news.yahoo.com/migrant-refugee-flows-europe-top-100-000-2016-100804517.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3459977/Britain-left-powerless-weakened-EU-plans-allow-terrorists-Europe-unchecked-ease-holiday-traffic.html El Al must be killing themselves laughing!