Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: With both phone and online EURef polls th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: With both phone and online EURef polls the trend has been away from REMAIN
Whatever is driving this, and there have been many theories, the trend with each mode in the PB EURef polling averages has been the same – away from REMAIN.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Edit: And my first First for ages.
New civil service code for EU Referendum vote. Out Ministers cannot be provided with "briefing or speech material" on this matter
The Liz Line
Re SC, it is a Red state so there should be a higher turnout for the GOP by about 20%, all else being equal.
I genuinely want to hear a fair debate from both sides...not going to happen is it.
Good news, lets hope the trend continues - I just wish I had more faith in polling period…
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
But that doesn't explain it all.
I mean online polls overstated Labour to a greater degree than phone polls. Are they now, also, overstating Leave?
"I'd love to give you a detailed response on this, but the Government has blocked our access to the data. Anyone would think they are scared of what we might discover...."
I had read that young british people with pakistan or bangladesh roots had higher than average levels of unemployment?
Telephone pollsters have a combined centre right/right vote of c.50%, online at c.55%.
So which is the correct figure? Nobody knows. I wouldn't be at all surprised though if Conservatives and UKIP made up about 60% of those who actually go out and vote on June 23rd. I think there's an enthusiasm gap between right and left on this issue.
Then again you have an ex-Chancellor and would in all probability have an ex-PM, if she were alive today, saying the opposite.
You also having serving ministers who are familiar with the impact of EU law in social, welfare, employment, justice and education policy who are all convinced of the case to Leave.
That means Bedfordshire has four Leave (Fuller, Selous, Dorries, Hopkins) to two Remain (Shuker, and Burt).
As such people these days have the ability to decide whether or not to answer the phone based on what the number is. I, and most people I know will not answer any 08- numbers or caller withheld/not available numbers. Increasingly a lot of people may not even answer a number they don't recognise.
It is easy to see how being unable to reach these people could seriously skew the rules of phone polling.
This is not to say that internet polling doesn't have its own problems but I am just highlighting one particular fault with phone polling which I think is potentially very serious.
Still calling it for Remain by 15 percentage points.
On this issue I think it's almost the reverse
Immigration is the issue that many Brexiteers think will tip the balance their way. But just as Ukip found last year, they’re misreading the polls.
There is a very familiar gap between the number who view immigration as the most important issue facing the country and those who view it as important to their household’s well-being.
At the general election, 51% thought immigration was the key issue facing Britain but only 21% believed it mattered most to their lives.
Unsurprisingly, immigration was not a major factor in the contest.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/02/23/remain-will-win-easily-boris-will-be-irrelevant-and-immigration-will-barely-register-in-voters-choice/#more-20620
As Cameron explained yesterday in the HoC, the government has an agreed policy - 'Remain'.....
..... Seriously older folk are very wary of the sales calls and sift out numbers and use BT services to block and divert etc.
I never answer calls unless I know who they are.
The silent majority will vote against whichever side is the most shrill and fanatical.
Over a third (34%) of @UKLabour members have voted for the Green party at some point.
@eldergill @UKLabour of those who voted for JC in September 40% have ever voted LibDem, 37% Green. The Green number in particular is high
Answering dozens of very varied questions from all shades of political opinion he was totally in command of all the facts and figures.
It is difficult to think of any leader in modern times who has delivered such an impressive performance.
If and when he resigns as Prime Minister he will be a great loss to the HoC it has to be said, irrespective of one's personal political persuasion.
When the pollsters get the Referendum wrong as well, we can point them to this thread.
Unless we vote Leave, there will be plenty of water under the bridge before Cameron goes, and Osborne has already got enough MPs behind him to be sure of making the final.
I think (though I may be generalising from my own position) there are plenty of Tory members who will vote Leave but will be happy enough to vote for a Remainer.
Depending on the tenor of the referendum debate, there may also be membership resignations from Leavers, which will affect the arithmetic.
To my mind, the more interesting question now is whether Osborne might be starting to prefer Boris as his opponent. Boris's stardust owes quite a lot to never having been in power (over most of the country; arguably over London too) and thus being unsullied by the decisions of office. That will change.
2) On supply and demand, if wages need to rise to attract curry chefs, so be it.
3) If that means that the price of a curry is going to rise, again, so be it.
4) Employment rates among Bengali women are still very low. Might that be a place to start looking?
Yes maybe we will get Muslims to become atheists
From a broader political viewpoint, Osborne and Javid become the government choice for next PM vs. Boris & Gove as the opposition. Come 2020, the electorate will already effectively have seen the election and won't be bothered voting for the massive, huge leap leftwards the Comrades want.
Win Win for Tories on either referendum result.
The cold-calling industry has much to answer for.
My mobile gets them or spurious accident ones every few days. It's really annoying.
So who exactly are phone pollsters still reaching? Younger people who don't have mobile phones, and pensioners who blithely answer every landline call? Those must be two rapidly shrinking groups of the population.
I think we'd be talking a 3-4% swing rather than a 10% swing as feeling on this is so visceral.
But, what the hell do I know? No-one really knows what's going to happen.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/feb/21/gop-sets-another-turnout-record-democrats-numbers-/
Trump is on 68 delegates now, he won one more than forecast in NH, Flamingo Kid goes down one. A big win in the right PR state becomes almost winner takes all.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-primaries/270310-trump-wins-additional-nh-delegate
Overnight Remain tightened from 1.53/1.54 to 1.46/1.47. Gamblers were presumably impressed by the Prime Minister yesterday, though for the life of me I can't see why one good day in Parliament makes much difference.
Rocket science at the time.
Some people showing their true colours. I actually don't hold somebody being In or Out against them, i.e. Gove out, Ken Clarke In, but some are just showing how much of a politician they really are.
I'd be really pissed if she'd been a noisy Brexiteer and that influenced my vote.
It could mean that, since we are a member and likely to remain one and since it plays such an important part in the governance of this country, it makes sense to make the best of it and work with it and try to get the best out of it. I expect that in a lot of cases such an approach (a) is more agreeable; and (b) may well be more effective. It's essentially an instrumentalist approach. An acceptance of reality. It is probably the best argument Remain has though it is a very passive argument at its heart.
The other could be people actually becoming more positive about it, both in principle and practice. Love, if you will.
It would be interesting to know how many of those choosing Remain are doing so for the first rather than the second reason.
I find it interesting that so many of the Ministers in the Justice Department have come out for Leave. When you are dealing with the actual nitty gritty of laws perhaps you are inclined to take a less rosy-eyed view? Who knows? The FCO and Defence are dealing with big picture, foreign, collective stuff where multinational and internal co-operation makes a lot of sense. When you're dealing with more domestic matters then dealing with the EU must feel much more like interference.
The benchmark for these things is the Lady Alba - Bad Romance spoof during the Scottish independence referendum which was genuinely brilliant.
However, it might well be fatal to Cameron, even if he wins.
"We'd been planning it for ages and had packed everything into boxes.
"We just thought it would be easier to wait."
A strong case to be made on many hot button issues.