politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post EU deal referendum poll has REMAIN with 15% lead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post EU deal referendum poll has REMAIN with 15% lead
There is no recent Survation EU phone polling to compare it to so it is hard to judge the impact. We do know that phone polls have been showing much bigger leads for IN than online ones.
Comments
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Great news for Dave0
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I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?0 -
Must be an outlier - the "deal" was worse than that between Darth Vader and Lando in The Empire Strikes Back!0
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Says a traitorous pigdog boooer!!!TheScreamingEagles said:Great news for Dave
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Louise Mensch ✔ @LouiseMensch
Conor Burns MP declares for #Brexit. Conor was Margaret Thatcher's very close friend. #VoteLeave https://twitter.com/conorburns_mp/status/700974684595163136 …0 -
Pretty certain it will settle it for 15 years. Ultimately Europe will face some amjor challenges, whether we are in the EU or not. "A generation" maybe not.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?0 -
LEAVE = British and proud!SquareRoot said:
Says a traitorous pigdog boooer!!!TheScreamingEagles said:Great news for Dave
REMAIN = Traitor Pig-Dogs!0 -
Wonder is poll will help Boris to stop getting a splintered arse on that fence?0
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Sunday Times front page:
Cameron declares war on rebels
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/10 -
An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the EuroTheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?0 -
Times says no10 lobbying Boris...if they are briefing I presume like the eu deal it is in the bag already.0
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will there be anything out of SC until midnight?
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unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro
That is where the FO will try to take us next, if they win. Rely on it0 -
It would settle the matter for a generation, albeit an Alex Salmond 'generation' of indeterminate duration. However, 5 years is too short IMHO.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?0 -
Fox calls NV for Clinton.
Cant see Trump not winning SC.0 -
Just wait until Tusk starts altering the terms of the agreement...Sunil_Prasannan said:Must be an outlier - the "deal" was worse than that between Darth Vader and Lando in The Empire Strikes Back!
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Personally I cannot see Remain winning by more than 52%-48% and with 80% opposed to the Euro there is no chance we join that. For example I would join the No campaign if this was a referendum on the Euro but I am prepared to back the Remain campaign when the issue is membership of the EU as a wholerunnymede said:unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro
That is where the FO will try to take us next, if they win. Rely on it0 -
For those predicting the Tories splitting etc
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701166442515972096
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/7011670681719234560 -
According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.
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Trump at 1.06 on BF.0
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Do you have a link?FrancisUrquhart said:According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.
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Yep,until cameron goes after them .TheScreamingEagles said:For those predicting the Tories splitting etc
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701166442515972096
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/7011670681719234560 -
Osborne is looking like a big big winner from all this. Does Boris attach himself to a losing cause, or does he do for his leadership hopes like May ?0
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A curious headline - surely they've declared war on him by rebelling in the first place? I know it's all polite and 'he fought as hard as he could' at the moment, but though justified in sticking to principle, that's still them openly declaring he got a crap deal and is telling us it is good. Is there more in the actual text to support that interpretation in the headline?Tykejohnno said:Sunday Times front page:
Cameron declares war on rebels
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/10 -
Not within five years - too tight a timescale for (1) the EU to renege, (2) a government to not just kick up stink but to schedule a new vote and (3) for that vote to happen. Court cases and the like take years to decide. It'd also depend where the U-turn was.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
The biggest loophole is that the deal hasn't amended the treaties. I'd expect a government that was faced with the ECJ striking down the agreement as incompatible with the governing treaties (if it does), to first push for a full treaty revision before going nuclear.0 -
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3456429/Gove-Boris-EXPOSED-secret-EU-plot-Pair-snapped-Johnson-home-eve-Cabinet-rebel-s-exit.htmlTheScreamingEagles said:
Do you have a link?FrancisUrquhart said:According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.
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Another referendum will be held if the fundamentals change, and there is a clamour for one.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
That would require a major economic meltdown and migration crisis on top, probably.
I'd say within 10 years, not 5 years. I certainly don't think you could call "a generation".0 -
Thank youFrancisUrquhart said:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3456429/Gove-Boris-EXPOSED-secret-EU-plot-Pair-snapped-Johnson-home-eve-Cabinet-rebel-s-exit.htmlTheScreamingEagles said:
Do you have a link?FrancisUrquhart said:According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.
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I know Conor very well - solid EUsceptic.Tykejohnno said:Louise Mensch ✔ @LouiseMensch
Conor Burns MP declares for #Brexit. Conor was Margaret Thatcher's very close friend. #VoteLeave https://twitter.com/conorburns_mp/status/700974684595163136 …0 -
I think that is wishful thinking.Casino_Royale said:
Another referendum will be held if the fundamentals change, and there is a clamour for one.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
That would require a major economic meltdown and migration crisis on top, probably.
I'd say within 10 years, not 5 years. I certainly don't think you could call "a generation".0 -
If Dave says:
LEAVE = The Rebels
then:
REMAIN = The Galactic Empire0 -
So, what do we think they're promising Boris. Foreign Sec?0
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First paragraph says 'Cameron ignites fresh civil war...'Tykejohnno said:Sunday Times front page:
Cameron declares war on rebels
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1
From which we can confidently conclude that Cameron has NOT ignited any civil war. Any media spouting usually means the opposite.
Remarkably the PM has pointed out a home truth. Joining the EEA as an alternative to the EU and remaining in the single market will also entail free movement of workers.
I won't waste my breath pointing out Norway again.
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Mayor of Brussels?Gravitation said:So, what do we think they're promising Boris. Foreign Sec?
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The pressure on Boris tonight will be absolutely overwhelming.FrancisUrquhart said:Times says no10 lobbying Boris...if they are briefing I presume like the eu deal it is in the bag already.
I think Dave will say, offer or do virtually anything to stop him declaring for Leave.0 -
It seems more likely that allies in the camps of both sides will make the serious attacks, and then the Senior Tories will be asked if they agree, invited to join in as it were. So Farage will call Cameron an idiotic liar, and IDS will be asked what he thinks about that. Cameron will be asked if IDS is implicitly calling him an idiot liar as well given he agrees the deal is not a good one.Tykejohnno said:
Yep,until cameron goes after them .TheScreamingEagles said:For those predicting the Tories splitting etc
htps://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701166442515972096
htps://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701167068171923456
It will be interesting to see how well both try to sidestep the implied attacks without seeming to criticise each other
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Leave could still win then if it wins over the 19% who still don't know, the odds favour Remain but even now Remain is still under 50%FrancisUrquhart said:According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.
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Boris wouldn't go for that...it's hard work. How about Boris island airport?Gravitation said:So, what do we think they're promising Boris. Foreign Sec?
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That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.HYUFD said:
An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the EuroTheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
How on earth can you call the next hundred years?0 -
Could the EU gain a new island out of this?Casino_Royale said:
The pressure on Boris tonight will be absolutely overwhelming.FrancisUrquhart said:Times says no10 lobbying Boris...if they are briefing I presume like the eu deal it is in the bag already.
I think Dave will say, offer or do virtually anything to stop him declaring for Leave.0 -
Humanity will be obsolete by 2040 in any case...Casino_Royale said:
That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.HYUFD said:
An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the EuroTheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
How on earth can you call the next hundred years?0 -
What's wishful thinking?Pulpstar said:
I think that is wishful thinking.Casino_Royale said:
Another referendum will be held if the fundamentals change, and there is a clamour for one.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
That would require a major economic meltdown and migration crisis on top, probably.
I'd say within 10 years, not 5 years. I certainly don't think you could call "a generation".0 -
CBS GOP early SC exit poll Terrorism the most important issue for voters, bodes well for Trump
https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/7011659318007480330 -
Leave = Be-LeaversSunil_Prasannan said:
LEAVE = British and proud!SquareRoot said:
Says a traitorous pigdog boooer!!!TheScreamingEagles said:Great news for Dave
REMAIN = Traitor Pig-Dogs!
Remain = Remainders0 -
"58% of the NV Dem vote in Clinton 52.1% Sanders 47.8%"
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/20/politics/south-carolina-nevada-live-updates/index.html0 -
Tim Montgomerie ن ✔ @montie
I underestimated @LouiseMensch. She really has put her beliefs before loyalty to Cameron. I apologise to her https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/701168376576614400 …
Louise Mensch ✔ @LouiseMensch
"Hey @david_cameron your bullshit "deal" is only temporary" says @JunckerEU helpfully (after one day) #Brexit https://twitter.com/Mina_Andreeva/status/700821002679357440 …
Louise Mensch ✔ @LouiseMensch
Hashtag #Refugees Hashtag #UKinEU no thanks to rapist males of fighting age bussed in from safe Turkey #Brexit https://twitter.com/EP_President/status/700365620391624705 …0 -
Looks like Nevada has been called for Clinton.
Currently 52.2 - 47.7 ahead with 67.4% in
Most of the remaining from Clark county so would expect the gap to widen at the end.0 -
Kill them with pigs' blood dipped bullets!HYUFD said:CBS GOP early SC exit poll Terrorism the most important issue for voters, bodes well for Trump
https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/7011659318007480330 -
Gosh I was worried until I saw who wrote that.Tykejohnno said:
Yep,until cameron goes after them .TheScreamingEagles said:For those predicting the Tories splitting etc
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701166442515972096
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/7011670681719234560 -
Imagine writing that sentence 12 months ago. The SC voters say terrorism is the most important issue, so they're likely to punish the candidate from the dynasty that 'kept America safe' and vote for the billionaire who's never held elected office.HYUFD said:CBS GOP early SC exit poll Terrorism the most important issue for voters, bodes well for Trump
https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/7011659318007480330 -
Bit harsh on Hammond given he like all those holding the Great Offices of State have sided with Cameron on this one. I assume he's a team player though.Gravitation said:So, what do we think they're promising Boris. Foreign Sec?
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Huntsman, is that you..??RodCrosby said:
Humanity will be obsolete by 2040 in any case...Casino_Royale said:
That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.HYUFD said:
An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the EuroTheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
How on earth can you call the next hundred years?0 -
CNN now calls Nevada for Clinton with 66% in, 52% Clinton 47% Sanders
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/nv/Dem0 -
Sanders needs a 9.3% lead in the remainder. Not going to happen....Gravitation said:Looks like Nevada has been called for Clinton.
Currently 52.2 - 47.7 ahead with 67.4% in
Most of the remaining from Clark county so would expect the gap to widen at the end.
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I think Boris would go for the expenses-paid worldwide travel that it offers.FrancisUrquhart said:
Boris wouldn't go for that...it's hard work. How about Boris island airport?Gravitation said:So, what do we think they're promising Boris. Foreign Sec?
Plus it keeps Boris out of the country a lot making leadership plotting much more difficult.
Plus it would be a bit hilarious having Boris as our representative to the world.0 -
How's your team done.flightpath01 said:
Gosh I was worried until I saw who wrote that.Tykejohnno said:
Yep,until cameron goes after them .TheScreamingEagles said:For those predicting the Tories splitting etc
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701166442515972096
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/7011670681719234560 -
No, the median forecast of scientists.Casino_Royale said:
Huntsman, is that you..??RodCrosby said:
Humanity will be obsolete by 2040 in any case...Casino_Royale said:
That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.HYUFD said:
An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the EuroTheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
How on earth can you call the next hundred years?0 -
Yes, he knows his market!RodCrosby said:
Kill them with pigs' blood dipped bullets!HYUFD said:CBS GOP early SC exit poll Terrorism the most important issue for voters, bodes well for Trump
https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/7011659318007480330 -
When has anyone won all the undecided. Split it in half and you get 57-42HYUFD said:
Leave could still win then if it wins over the 19% who still don't know, the odds favour Remain but even now Remain is still under 50%FrancisUrquhart said:According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.
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Yes, looks that waywilliamglenn said:
Imagine writing that sentence 12 months ago. The SC voters say terrorism is the most important issue, so they're likely to punish the candidate from the dynasty that 'kept America safe' and vote for the billionaire who's never held elected office.HYUFD said:CBS GOP early SC exit poll Terrorism the most important issue for voters, bodes well for Trump
https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/7011659318007480330 -
I'm not quite sure what you mean: extinct, or redundant?RodCrosby said:
No, the median forecast of scientists.Casino_Royale said:
Huntsman, is that you..??RodCrosby said:
Humanity will be obsolete by 2040 in any case...Casino_Royale said:
That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.HYUFD said:
An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the EuroTheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
How on earth can you call the next hundred years?
The latter meaning, presumably, cybernetics doing everything? (which might lead to the extinction?)0 -
I recall a trilogy of books, the name of which escapes me, which involved a near future fleet of ships getting accidentally sent back in time to WW2 - the present day setting featured in essence a global war against Islamic extremism, and the standard operating procedure of the western powers had become to kill the enemy then sew them up in pigskins to further humiliate them, or something to that effect.RodCrosby said:
Kill them with pigs' blood dipped bullets!HYUFD said:CBS GOP early SC exit poll Terrorism the most important issue for voters, bodes well for Trump
https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/701165931800748033
It also featured Prince Harry as a badass veteran SAS commando, meeting his young grandparents. It wasn't very good though.0 -
You know, if we had an elected ceremonial head of state, Boris might be the man for the job.Gravitation said:
I think Boris would go for the expenses-paid worldwide travel that it offers.FrancisUrquhart said:
Boris wouldn't go for that...it's hard work. How about Boris island airport?Gravitation said:So, what do we think they're promising Boris. Foreign Sec?
Plus it keeps Boris out of the country a lot making leadership plotting much more difficult.
Plus it would be a bit hilarious having Boris as our representative to the world.0 -
I thought everyone was saying the party wouldn't be split afterwards. Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?Tykejohnno said:Sunday Times front page:
Cameron declares war on rebels
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/10 -
One close referendum a second potentially makes, a second landslide referendum tends to settle the issue for goodCasino_Royale said:
That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.HYUFD said:
An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the EuroTheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
How on earth can you call the next hundred years?0 -
Yes please don't. You will be wrong again as you were on the last thread.flightpath01 said:
First paragraph says 'Cameron ignites fresh civil war...'Tykejohnno said:Sunday Times front page:
Cameron declares war on rebels
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1
From which we can confidently conclude that Cameron has NOT ignited any civil war. Any media spouting usually means the opposite.
Remarkably the PM has pointed out a home truth. Joining the EEA as an alternative to the EU and remaining in the single market will also entail free movement of workers.
I won't waste my breath pointing out Norway again.0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularityCasino_Royale said:
I'm not quite sure what you mean: extinct, or redundant?RodCrosby said:
No, the median forecast of scientists.Casino_Royale said:
Huntsman, is that you..??RodCrosby said:
Humanity will be obsolete by 2040 in any case...Casino_Royale said:
That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.HYUFD said:
An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the EuroTheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
How on earth can you call the next hundred years?
The latter meaning, presumably, cybernetics doing everything? (which might lead to the extinction?)0 -
Is a silly headline, here's what Cameron has said in the Sunday TimesRichard_Tyndall said:
I thought everyone was saying the party wouldn't be split afterwards. Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?Tykejohnno said:Sunday Times front page:
Cameron declares war on rebels
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1
When reports broke that Michael Gove, one of his closest friends in politics, would back Brexit, Cameron dismissed the news as “not a surprise”. But he now admits he was hurt by the move.
“Obviously I am sad about it because he is a close friend and a very close colleague,” he said, before adding that Gove “will remain both of those things”.
Asked if it might affect their friendship, he said: “I very much hope not.”
Cameron also vowed not to axe ministers who have defied him in his next reshuffle. “My thoughts are nowhere near reshuffles. What I can say is that no one will be at any disadvantage by choosing to campaign in a particular way,” he said.
“I want as many ministers and MPs to support the cause that I think is right but people have thought about these things very carefully and we are all going to respect each other and the choices we make, and no one will suffer disadvantage for a decision to go one way or the other way.”0 -
Gove really is persuasive: http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/michael-gove-why-im-backing-leave/
This is possibly the best-written Out piece I have ever read. It is articles like this and Hannan that make me seriously think twice about how I'm going to vote.0 -
Oh good, so humanity ceases just before I collect my pension, that will solve retirement plans! Or we will have merged with robots in the singularity!RodCrosby said:
Humanity will be obsolete by 2040 in any case...Casino_Royale said:
That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.HYUFD said:
An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the EuroTheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
How on earth can you call the next hundred years?0 -
Of course he bloody doesn't, he's the Tory PM, why would he want to destroy the party.Richard_Tyndall said:
Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?Tykejohnno said:Sunday Times front page:
Cameron declares war on rebels
ttps://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1
Now, would he do it by accident is a fair(er) question, even if one thinks the answer is a resounding no.0 -
Can you clarify that any alternative allows the restriction of free movement. It is really importantRichard_Tyndall said:
Yes please don't. You will be wrong again as you were on the last thread.flightpath01 said:
First paragraph says 'Cameron ignites fresh civil war...'Tykejohnno said:Sunday Times front page:
Cameron declares war on rebels
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1
From which we can confidently conclude that Cameron has NOT ignited any civil war. Any media spouting usually means the opposite.
Remarkably the PM has pointed out a home truth. Joining the EEA as an alternative to the EU and remaining in the single market will also entail free movement of workers.
I won't waste my breath pointing out Norway again.0 -
This seems to imply that Trump has done well in SC but really, why release the subsidiary data without the top lines?
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=370772190 -
0
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Governor of St Helena!Gravitation said:So, what do we think they're promising Boris. Foreign Sec?
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OK, let's think it thru.Let's assume the following:TheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
1) Remain wins
2) the FrancoGerman-desired treaty change in 2017/8/whatever does not trigger the 2011 act
3) Cameron remains PM until 2019
Under these circs, no referendum 2 before 2020...but that's election year, so no.
Afterwards? You'd need somebody - Corbyn, Cameron's successor to invent a case for a referendum and get it thru the House. Possible, but you'd need another year, so that takes us up to mid 2021.
So it's *possible* to have a referendum 2 within 5 years, but it'd be tight.
Of course, if any of the assumptions are wrong, results will differ: DYOR0 -
Just the media having fun. Take no notice.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a silly headline, here's what Cameron has said in the Sunday TimesRichard_Tyndall said:
I thought everyone was saying the party wouldn't be split afterwards. Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?Tykejohnno said:Sunday Times front page:
Cameron declares war on rebels
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1
When reports broke that Michael Gove, one of his closest friends in politics, would back Brexit, Cameron dismissed the news as “not a surprise”. But he now admits he was hurt by the move.
“Obviously I am sad about it because he is a close friend and a very close colleague,” he said, before adding that Gove “will remain both of those things”.
Asked if it might affect their friendship, he said: “I very much hope not.”
Cameron also vowed not to axe ministers who have defied him in his next reshuffle. “My thoughts are nowhere near reshuffles. What I can say is that no one will be at any disadvantage by choosing to campaign in a particular way,” he said.
“I want as many ministers and MPs to support the cause that I think is right but people have thought about these things very carefully and we are all going to respect each other and the choices we make, and no one will suffer disadvantage for a decision to go one way or the other way.”0 -
Yes a simple free-trade deal rather than being a part of any 'bloc' would allow the restriction of free movement.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you clarify that any alternative allows the restriction of free movement. It is really importantRichard_Tyndall said:
Yes please don't. You will be wrong again as you were on the last thread.flightpath01 said:
First paragraph says 'Cameron ignites fresh civil war...'Tykejohnno said:Sunday Times front page:
Cameron declares war on rebels
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1
From which we can confidently conclude that Cameron has NOT ignited any civil war. Any media spouting usually means the opposite.
Remarkably the PM has pointed out a home truth. Joining the EEA as an alternative to the EU and remaining in the single market will also entail free movement of workers.
I won't waste my breath pointing out Norway again.0 -
Polling hasn't closed.david_herdson said:This seems to imply that Trump has done well in SC but really, why release the subsidiary data without the top lines?
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=370772190 -
Doesn't he really have to come out for Leave now? It would be an absurd anti-climax if he went Remain.FrancisUrquhart said:Times says no10 lobbying Boris...if they are briefing I presume like the eu deal it is in the bag already.
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Hurrah!0
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We are not in the EZ in the event it collapses. We are not in Schengen in the event it collapses.SeanT said:
It won't settle it for a year if the EU - or the EZ - does something drastic, in the face of mounting crises. Which is quite likely. Schengen collapsed in a matter of months.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Pretty certain it will settle it for 15 years. Ultimately Europe will face some amjor challenges, whether we are in the EU or not. "A generation" maybe not.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
Realpolitk will take over, once the democratic politics are out of the way.0 -
And end to his tory leadership hopes.Wanderer said:
Doesn't he really have to come out for Leave now? It would be an absurd anti-climax if he went Remain.FrancisUrquhart said:Times says no10 lobbying Boris...if they are briefing I presume like the eu deal it is in the bag already.
0 -
Well quite.Casino_Royale said:
Just the media having fun. Take no notice.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a silly headline, here's what Cameron has said in the Sunday TimesRichard_Tyndall said:
I thought everyone was saying the party wouldn't be split afterwards. Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?Tykejohnno said:Sunday Times front page:
Cameron declares war on rebels
When reports broke that Michael Gove, one of his closest friends in politics, would back Brexit, Cameron dismissed the news as “not a surprise”. But he now admits he was hurt by the move.
“Obviously I am sad about it because he is a close friend and a very close colleague,” he said, before adding that Gove “will remain both of those things”.
Asked if it might affect their friendship, he said: “I very much hope not.”
Cameron also vowed not to axe ministers who have defied him in his next reshuffle. “My thoughts are nowhere near reshuffles. What I can say is that no one will be at any disadvantage by choosing to campaign in a particular way,” he said.
“I want as many ministers and MPs to support the cause that I think is right but people have thought about these things very carefully and we are all going to respect each other and the choices we make, and no one will suffer disadvantage for a decision to go one way or the other way.”0 -
Ah, Skynet becomes sehlf ahwayeare.RodCrosby said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularityCasino_Royale said:
I'm not quite sure what you mean: extinct, or redundant?RodCrosby said:
No, the median forecast of scientists.Casino_Royale said:
Huntsman, is that you..??RodCrosby said:
Humanity will be obsolete by 2040 in any case...Casino_Royale said:
That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.HYUFD said:
An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the EuroTheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
How on earth can you call the next hundred years?
The latter meaning, presumably, cybernetics doing everything? (which might lead to the extinction?)
In da panic, dey tryta pull da plug.0 -
As I don't have an insight into or care for the internal politicking of the Tory party, it seems to me to on the face of it reasonable if Cameron were to axe all those who campaign for Out from his Cabinet. I agree with their stance, but it is in effect saying Cameron is wrong about a fundamental issue for the country, even though they are being polite about it. He'd be entitled to sack them in those circumstances.
Now, that might not be a good idea as far as party unity goes, and in fact the opposite was stated to be the plan in the past few weeks - that is, Eurosceptics would be promoted, or at least retained - but I don't see why it would be a betrayal by Cameron either.0 -
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
35% of those polled by Survation for today's MoS #EYRef phone survey say they think Cameron did well. 30% say badly0 -
I'm going to end up with a gargantuan bet on Trump lol0
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IIRC, in Iowa or NH, there was some legal reason given. They had a countdown to the numbers being released, then held back the headline figures until later.david_herdson said:This seems to imply that Trump has done well in SC but really, why release the subsidiary data without the top lines?
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37077219
Maybe the same. Maybe not. Dunno.0 -
Anyhoo, will not contribute overmuch tonight: am pleasantly pissed and watching the 2014 Robocop remake and it's a *lot* better than its rep suggests.0
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It won't cease to exist. It will just be obsolete. It could still be used as food or fuel. Hope this helps with your retirement planning.HYUFD said:
Oh good, so humanity ceases just before I collect my pension, that will solve retirement plans! Or we will have merged with robots in the singularity!RodCrosby said:
Humanity will be obsolete by 2040 in any case...Casino_Royale said:
That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.HYUFD said:
An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the EuroTheScreamingEagles said:I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
How on earth can you call the next hundred years?0 -
If the FT are saying it supports staying in then is not the EU good for the city and does that not make it difficult for Boris to say leave?Wanderer said:
Doesn't he really have to come out for Leave now? It would be an absurd anti-climax if he went Remain.FrancisUrquhart said:Times says no10 lobbying Boris...if they are briefing I presume like the eu deal it is in the bag already.
0 -
Yes but undecideds can sometimes go one way or the other, even if not universally, this poll was taken entirely today after the deal was announced, Cameron has clearly got a bounce from the deal but there is a long way to go yetBig_G_NorthWales said:
When has anyone won all the undecided. Split it in half and you get 57-42HYUFD said:
Leave could still win then if it wins over the 19% who still don't know, the odds favour Remain but even now Remain is still under 50%FrancisUrquhart said:According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.
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Wasn't Osborne saying to ministers "you can campaign to leave or you can have a career"? Someone should ask Cameron if he knew anything about that.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a silly headline, here's what Cameron has said in the Sunday TimesRichard_Tyndall said:
I thought everyone was saying the party wouldn't be split afterwards. Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?Tykejohnno said:Sunday Times front page:
Cameron declares war on rebels
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1
When reports broke that Michael Gove, one of his closest friends in politics, would back Brexit, Cameron dismissed the news as “not a surprise”. But he now admits he was hurt by the move.
“Obviously I am sad about it because he is a close friend and a very close colleague,” he said, before adding that Gove “will remain both of those things”.
Asked if it might affect their friendship, he said: “I very much hope not.”
Cameron also vowed not to axe ministers who have defied him in his next reshuffle. “My thoughts are nowhere near reshuffles. What I can say is that no one will be at any disadvantage by choosing to campaign in a particular way,” he said.
“I want as many ministers and MPs to support the cause that I think is right but people have thought about these things very carefully and we are all going to respect each other and the choices we make, and no one will suffer disadvantage for a decision to go one way or the other way.”0 -
My comment didn't refer to free movement. That is a none issue for me as I have made clear at every stage of this debate. It referred to Flightpath's idiotic comments about Norway on the previous thread.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you clarify that any alternative allows the restriction of free movement. It is really importantRichard_Tyndall said:
Yes please don't. You will be wrong again as you were on the last thread.flightpath01 said:
First paragraph says 'Cameron ignites fresh civil war...'Tykejohnno said:Sunday Times front page:
Cameron declares war on rebels
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1
From which we can confidently conclude that Cameron has NOT ignited any civil war. Any media spouting usually means the opposite.
Remarkably the PM has pointed out a home truth. Joining the EEA as an alternative to the EU and remaining in the single market will also entail free movement of workers.
I won't waste my breath pointing out Norway again.0 -
Dave is a shit negotiator, but he's a great salesman.Tykejohnno said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
35% of those polled by Survation for today's MoS #EYRef phone survey say they think Cameron did well. 30% say badly0 -
If Cameron doesn't sack Gove IDS and Grayling it'll show enormous weakness. We saw today the impossibility of their positions. "Are you saying the Prime Minister is being dishonest?" "Don't you believe him when he says this is a good deal for Britain" and it'll only get worse.
Think How Mourinho and Guardiola are destabilising United and City and it gives some idea of the shambles that'll be going on in government0 -
Oh do stop talking bollox.kle4 said:As I don't have an insight into or care for the internal politicking of the Tory party, it seems to me to on the face of it reasonable if Cameron were to axe all those who campaign for Out from his Cabinet. I agree with their stance, but it is in effect saying Cameron is wrong about a fundamental issue for the country, even though they are being polite about it. He'd be entitled to sack them in those circumstances.
Now, that might not be a good idea as far as party unity goes, and in fact the opposite was stated to be the plan in the past few weeks - that is, Eurosceptics would be promoted, or at least retained - but I don't see why it would be a betrayal by Cameron either.0 -
Shades of "The Final Countdown" where the US carrier "Nimitz" goes back in time to just before Pearl Harbor.kle4 said:
I recall a trilogy of books, the name of which escapes me, which involved a near future fleet of ships getting accidentally sent back in time to WW2 - the present day setting featured in essence a global war against Islamic extremism, and the standard operating procedure of the western powers had become to kill the enemy then sew them up in pigskins to further humiliate them, or something to that effect.RodCrosby said:
Kill them with pigs' blood dipped bullets!HYUFD said:CBS GOP early SC exit poll Terrorism the most important issue for voters, bodes well for Trump
https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/701165931800748033
It also featured Prince Harry as a badass veteran SAS commando, meeting his young grandparents. It wasn't very good though.0
