According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.
Leave could still win then if it wins over the 19% who still don't know, the odds favour Remain but even now Remain is still under 50%
When has anyone won all the undecided. Split it in half and you get 57-42
Yes but undecideds can sometimes go one way or the other, even if not universally, this poll was taken entirely today after the deal was announced, Cameron has clearly got a bounce from the deal but there is a long way to go yet
But it is a phone poll which have been coming up with some leads bigger than this!
In South Carolina the last pre-election polls had Bush on 9-14. Now the consensus is about 6-7. This is no doubt the source of the much-noted late deciders
In South Carolina the last pre-election polls had Bush on 9-14. Now the consensus is about 6-7. This is no doubt the source of the much-noted late deciders
I don't what you mean.
Surely Bush will now come into to 6.6!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.
Leave could still win then if it wins over the 19% who still don't know, the odds favour Remain but even now Remain is still under 50%
When has anyone won all the undecided. Split it in half and you get 57-42
Yes but undecideds can sometimes go one way or the other, even if not universally, this poll was taken entirely today after the deal was announced, Cameron has clearly got a bounce from the deal but there is a long way to go yet
But it is a phone poll which have been coming up with some leads bigger than this!
Too close for comfort for Trump. If Kasich and Bush and Carson drop out (or are merely seen to be lost causes - Bush is indeed possibly 5th), most of their votes will probably go to the other two.
Too close for comfort for Trump. If Kasich and Bush and Carson drop out (or are merely seen to be lost causes - Bush is indeed possibly 5th), most of their votes will probably go to the other two.
Too close for comfort for Trump. If Kasich and Bush and Carson drop out (or are merely seen to be lost causes - Bush is indeed possibly 5th), most of their votes will probably go to the other two.
Trump's almost certain to win Nevada in a few days so Super Tuesday will become a referendum on his candidacy. Unless either Rubio or Cruz does something amazing on that day then it's hard to see past Trump.
So far the results are very good for Trump, however there are no reports from the Spartanburg area, one of the big 3 population areas for S.C. and the most conservative.
The previous GOP primary in South Carolina in 2012 saw 603,770 votes cast in total. Might be helpful in trying to work out how things are going tonight.
So far the results are very good for Trump, however there are no reports from the Spartanburgh area, one of the big 3 population areas for S.C. and the most conservative.
Is this the beginning of a shy Trumpeter phenomenon? Voters telling pollsters they like the traditional candidates on specific issues but still willing to vote for Trump. This might particularly apply once we start getting more transfers and people are forced to make a choice.
TROUBLED Prestwick Airport, owned by the Scottish Government, has been involved in negotiations with Donald Trump in an effort to return it to profit – at the same time as senior SNP figures have been calling for the US presidential candidate to be banned from the UK, Scotland on Sunday can reveal.
Too close for comfort for Trump. If Kasich and Bush and Carson drop out (or are merely seen to be lost causes - Bush is indeed possibly 5th), most of their votes will probably go to the other two.
Cruz is second preference for GOP voters, so it will probably end up a Trump v Cruz battle in the end which Trump surely wins
Too close for comfort for Trump. If Kasich and Bush and Carson drop out (or are merely seen to be lost causes - Bush is indeed possibly 5th), most of their votes will probably go to the other two.
Cruz is second preference for GOP voters, so it will probably end up a Trump v Cruz battle in the end which Trump surely wins
So far the results are very good for Trump, however there are no reports from the Spartanburg area, one of the big 3 population areas for S.C. and the most conservative.
Too close for comfort for Trump. If Kasich and Bush and Carson drop out (or are merely seen to be lost causes - Bush is indeed possibly 5th), most of their votes will probably go to the other two.
Cruz is second preference for GOP voters, so it will probably end up a Trump v Cruz battle in the end which Trump surely wins
Too close for comfort for Trump. If Kasich and Bush and Carson drop out (or are merely seen to be lost causes - Bush is indeed possibly 5th), most of their votes will probably go to the other two.
Cruz is second preference for GOP voters, so it will probably end up a Trump v Cruz battle in the end which Trump surely wins
The strategy is, surely, to lay Rubio.
But my pockets aren't deep enough.
Yes, sounds sensible
Wait - Rubio will come out this looking like a winner. For some unfathomable reason.
Too close for comfort for Trump. If Kasich and Bush and Carson drop out (or are merely seen to be lost causes - Bush is indeed possibly 5th), most of their votes will probably go to the other two.
Cruz is second preference for GOP voters, so it will probably end up a Trump v Cruz battle in the end which Trump surely wins
The strategy is, surely, to lay Rubio.
But my pockets aren't deep enough.
Yes, sounds sensible
Wait - Rubio will come out this looking like a winner. For some unfathomable reason.
Comments
Trump 31
Cruz 27
Rubio 23
Carson 7
Kasich 6
Bush 6
https://twitter.com/JayCostTWS/status/701195339735420928
Rubio is definitely 3rd. So its between Cruz and Trump. Trump wins by 8.
https://twitter.com/tobyharnden/status/701195110537674752?lang=en-gb
Cruz looks like value.
Trump 30
Cruz 25.5
Rubio 23
Kasich 7
Bush 7
Carson 6.5
You need 33.4% of MPs to make Final 2.
If MPs split 70 IN : 30 OUT then:
Boris surely gets at least 2/3 of the Out MPs = (2/3) * 30 = 20% of grand total.
So he then needs another 13.4% of grand total = 13.4/70 = 19% of IN MPs.
That looks very comfortable for him.
Trump leading by 4% in the Exit polls is no guarantee for me.
Trump 30%
Cruz 25-26%
Rubio 23%
Kasich 7%
Bush 7%
Carson 6-7%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/SC/Rep
3-4 hours?
Surely Bush will now come into to 6.6!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bush almost 100%.
???
http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/south-carolina-gop-primary/
Trump 35
Cruz 21
Rubio 18
Bush 15
Carson 5
Kasich 4
With less than 1%, actually only a single Columbia precinct.
Wait until the votes are counted though!
Exit polls. Salt. Take. Pinch.
With.
A.
ABC News is reporting from a precinct in which the Top 3 order was Rubio, Kasich, Bush
Must have been a country club
Trump 36
Cruz 21
Rubio 18
Bush 16
Carson 5
Kasich 5
If that was the final result, it would reflect opinion polls and Trump will be very happy, best case for him.
IN was 1.37 earlier this evening.
Now IN is 1.44.
Boris 3.75
Osborne 4.3
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/storylines-watch-todays-south-carolina-republican-primary/story?id=37073967
Has there ever been, per $ spent, a worse candidate than Jeb!?
http://morningconsult.com/2016/02/who-spent-the-most-in-s-c-and-nevada/
Cruz 22
TROUBLED Prestwick Airport, owned by the Scottish Government, has been involved in negotiations with Donald Trump in an effort to return it to profit – at the same time as senior SNP figures have been calling for the US presidential candidate to be banned from the UK, Scotland on Sunday can reveal.
http://www.scotsman.com/business/snp-accused-of-hypocrisy-over-prestwick-links-with-donald-trump-1-4035207#ixzz40l0YXF7h
Trump 35
Rubio 25
Cruz 23
Jeb 7
But my pockets aren't deep enough.
Indeed his lead is dropping.
Upstate (30%)
Trump 28%
Cruz 25%
Rubio 22%
Midlands (23%):
Trump 34
Rubio 28
Cruz 23
LC (18%):
Trump 28
Rubio 28
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/feb/20/nevada-south-carolina-live-results-primary-caucuses
two very different information sources.
MSNBC projects Trump will win.
WOW
With less than 1%?
I'm surprised
Lay him then.
Now I see why the networks called it that early.
And backed him £!00 at 7 and laid it at 6.8 (My book is big enough on Trump Pres as it is)
Rubio the robot was the best hope. Slightly better chance than Bob Hope...
Is it 50-0?
This doesn't look like Trump 30, it looks a bit like the opinion polls.
It's not a 1.01 shot.
32.2% Trump
22.4% Rubio
20.9% Cruz
10.6% Bush
8.0% Kasich
6.0% Carson
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/sc/Rep