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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post EU deal referendum poll has REMAIN with 15% lead

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  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Best guess

    1 . Trump 34
    2. Cruz 26
    3. Rubio 18






    I can't make a projection with a Trump lead of just 2-4% in exit polls.
  • Speedy said:

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/primary-caucus-results/south-carolina

    Men
    Trump 34
    Cruz 24
    Rubio 23
    Kasich 6
    Carson 6
    Bush 6

    Women
    Cruz 27
    Trump 26
    Rubio 25
    Kasich 9
    Carson 7
    Bush 7

    stjohn said:

    Cruz is now favourite in the "Without Trump" SC GOP market.

    I think ~1.7 is about right. Has his nose in front.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    CBS Exit Poll

    Trump 31
    Cruz 27
    Rubio 23
    Carson 7
    Kasich 6
    Bush 6
  • Speedy said:

    Best guess

    1 . Trump 34
    2. Cruz 26
    3. Rubio 18






    I can't make a projection with a Trump lead of just 2-4% in exit polls.
    I think i'll be wrong on the numbers but not the order.

    Rubio is definitely 3rd. So its between Cruz and Trump. Trump wins by 8.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Trump, Cruz, Rubio in that order CNN projects, no figures yet
    https://twitter.com/tobyharnden/status/701195110537674752?lang=en-gb
  • Wow. My £20 at Cruz at 24 looks a good value loser.

    Cruz looks like value.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    CNN Exit poll

    Trump 30
    Cruz 25.5
    Rubio 23
    Kasich 7
    Bush 7
    Carson 6.5
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Speedy said:

    CBS Exit Poll

    Trump 31
    Cruz 27
    Rubio 23
    Carson 7
    Kasich 6
    Bush 6

    So after your hysterics of the last hour, Trump still wins anyway!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    I think Boris must now make the Final 2.

    You need 33.4% of MPs to make Final 2.

    If MPs split 70 IN : 30 OUT then:

    Boris surely gets at least 2/3 of the Out MPs = (2/3) * 30 = 20% of grand total.

    So he then needs another 13.4% of grand total = 13.4/70 = 19% of IN MPs.

    That looks very comfortable for him.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,890
    edited February 2016
    That poll is fairly close. But more money being put up to lay Cruz. Now over £100 available at 20.0 and at 21.0. £57 at 22.0.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.

    Leave could still win then if it wins over the 19% who still don't know, the odds favour Remain but even now Remain is still under 50%
    When has anyone won all the undecided. Split it in half and you get 57-42
    Yes but undecideds can sometimes go one way or the other, even if not universally, this poll was taken entirely today after the deal was announced, Cameron has clearly got a bounce from the deal but there is a long way to go yet
    But it is a phone poll which have been coming up with some leads bigger than this!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    I will wait for at least 15% before I can call S.C.

    Trump leading by 4% in the Exit polls is no guarantee for me.
  • stjohn said:

    That poll is fairly close. But more money being put up to lay Cruz. Now over £100 available at 20.0 and at 21.0. £57 at 22.0.

    You're an idiot not to cover Cruz off at those prices, unless you are working on a very fine margin on Trump.
  • HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    CBS Exit Poll

    Trump 31
    Cruz 27
    Rubio 23
    Carson 7
    Kasich 6
    Bush 6

    So after your hysterics of the last hour, Trump still wins anyway!
    Ah but Rubio's successful 3-5-3 strategy is the REAL victory!
  • Best guess

    1 . Trump 34
    2. Cruz 26
    3. Rubio 18






    @cough@ not that shabby based on exits.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,674
    In South Carolina the last pre-election polls had Bush on 9-14. Now the consensus is about 6-7. This is no doubt the source of the much-noted late deciders
  • How long till actual results?

    3-4 hours?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What are the chances of Bush and Carson throwing in the towel tonight?
  • HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    CBS Exit Poll

    Trump 31
    Cruz 27
    Rubio 23
    Carson 7
    Kasich 6
    Bush 6

    So after your hysterics of the last hour, Trump still wins anyway!
    Ah but Rubio's successful 3-5-3 strategy is the REAL victory!
    Betfair certainly seem to think so.
  • EPG said:

    In South Carolina the last pre-election polls had Bush on 9-14. Now the consensus is about 6-7. This is no doubt the source of the much-noted late deciders

    I don't what you mean.

    Surely Bush will now come into to 6.6!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.

    Leave could still win then if it wins over the 19% who still don't know, the odds favour Remain but even now Remain is still under 50%
    When has anyone won all the undecided. Split it in half and you get 57-42
    Yes but undecideds can sometimes go one way or the other, even if not universally, this poll was taken entirely today after the deal was announced, Cameron has clearly got a bounce from the deal but there is a long way to go yet
    But it is a phone poll which have been coming up with some leads bigger than this!
    Yes, we will need an online poll to be sure
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Too close for comfort for Trump. If Kasich and Bush and Carson drop out (or are merely seen to be lost causes - Bush is indeed possibly 5th), most of their votes will probably go to the other two.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    What are the chances of Bush and Carson throwing in the towel tonight?

    Carson zero, if he beats Bush.
    Bush almost 100%.
  • So with Bush only on 7% he could be last. Pfft.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,890
    SC: Rubio last matched at 9.0. Cruz last matched at 21.0 and available at 24.0.

    ???
  • Too close for comfort for Trump. If Kasich and Bush and Carson drop out (or are merely seen to be lost causes - Bush is indeed possibly 5th), most of their votes will probably go to the other two.

    Transfers are never as clear cut as people think.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    I think we got votes:

    http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/south-carolina-gop-primary/

    Trump 35
    Cruz 21
    Rubio 18
    Bush 15
    Carson 5
    Kasich 4

    With less than 1%, actually only a single Columbia precinct.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2016

    Wow. My £20 at Cruz at 24 looks a good value loser.

    Cruz looks like value.

    Not a bad bet that. I had some myself @24

    Wait until the votes are counted though!

    Exit polls. Salt. Take. Pinch.

    With.

    A.
  • Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    What are the chances of Bush and Carson throwing in the towel tonight?

    Carson zero, if he beats Bush.
    Bush almost 100%.
    Why would Bush go before Florida?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,674
    LOL
    ABC News is reporting from a precinct in which the Top 3 order was Rubio, Kasich, Bush
    Must have been a country club
  • How long till actual results?

    3-4 hours?

    An hour for an indication, two for the winner, three for second place (probably).
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    CNN with 1% in

    Trump 36
    Cruz 21
    Rubio 18
    Bush 16
    Carson 5
    Kasich 5

    If that was the final result, it would reflect opinion polls and Trump will be very happy, best case for him.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Is there any evidence that Boris even has leadership aspirations?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    What are the chances of Bush and Carson throwing in the towel tonight?

    Bush high. The backers have turned the taps off...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    Boris has moved Betfair significantly.

    IN was 1.37 earlier this evening.

    Now IN is 1.44.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    What are the chances of Bush and Carson throwing in the towel tonight?

    Carson zero, if he beats Bush.
    Bush almost 100%.
    Why would Bush go before Florida?
    Money and Self-Respect.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944

    Too close for comfort for Trump. If Kasich and Bush and Carson drop out (or are merely seen to be lost causes - Bush is indeed possibly 5th), most of their votes will probably go to the other two.

    Trump's almost certain to win Nevada in a few days so Super Tuesday will become a referendum on his candidacy. Unless either Rubio or Cruz does something amazing on that day then it's hard to see past Trump.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    edited February 2016
    BORIS NOW FAVOURITE TO BE NEXT CON LEADER:

    Boris 3.75
    Osborne 4.3
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    So far the results are very good for Trump, however there are no reports from the Spartanburg area, one of the big 3 population areas for S.C. and the most conservative.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2016
    The previous GOP primary in South Carolina in 2012 saw 603,770 votes cast in total. Might be helpful in trying to work out how things are going tonight.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/storylines-watch-todays-south-carolina-republican-primary/story?id=37073967
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump 1.04
  • Bush and his backers spent nearly 14 million on TV ads, Rubio 12 million and Trump? Trump spent less than 2 million.

    Has there ever been, per $ spent, a worse candidate than Jeb!?

    http://morningconsult.com/2016/02/who-spent-the-most-in-s-c-and-nevada/
  • MP_SE said:

    Is there any evidence that Boris even has leadership aspirations?

    Well if the ball happened to come loose out of the back of the scrum...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Rubio 9
    Cruz 22
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2016
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    What are the chances of Bush and Carson throwing in the towel tonight?

    Bush high. The backers have turned the taps off...
    I would guess he's likely to endorse Rubio.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    Speedy said:

    So far the results are very good for Trump, however there are no reports from the Spartanburgh area, one of the big 3 population areas for S.C. and the most conservative.

    Is this the beginning of a shy Trumpeter phenomenon? Voters telling pollsters they like the traditional candidates on specific issues but still willing to vote for Trump. This might particularly apply once we start getting more transfers and people are forced to make a choice.
  • Awkward

    TROUBLED Prestwick Airport, owned by the Scottish Government, has been involved in ­negotiations with Donald Trump in an effort to return it to profit – at the same time as senior SNP figures have been calling for the US presidential candidate to be banned from the UK, Scotland on Sunday can reveal.

    http://www.scotsman.com/business/snp-accused-of-hypocrisy-over-prestwick-links-with-donald-trump-1-4035207#ixzz40l0YXF7h
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    Trump 1.04

    I would not be popping the champagne yet if I were Trump.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944

    Has there ever been, per $ spent, a worse candidate than Jeb!?

    http://morningconsult.com/2016/02/who-spent-the-most-in-s-c-and-nevada/

    Michael Bloomberg is said to be considering running for that record.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Exit poll shows a near-tie for first place among women, but Trump clearly the winner with men.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    What are the chances of Bush and Carson throwing in the towel tonight?

    Bush high. The backers have turned the taps off...
    I would guess he's likely to endorse Rubio.
    He hates Rubio, that's not very likely.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736

    Too close for comfort for Trump. If Kasich and Bush and Carson drop out (or are merely seen to be lost causes - Bush is indeed possibly 5th), most of their votes will probably go to the other two.

    Cruz is second preference for GOP voters, so it will probably end up a Trump v Cruz battle in the end which Trump surely wins
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Among veterans (35% of electorate)
    Trump 35
    Rubio 25
    Cruz 23
    Jeb 7
  • HYUFD said:

    Too close for comfort for Trump. If Kasich and Bush and Carson drop out (or are merely seen to be lost causes - Bush is indeed possibly 5th), most of their votes will probably go to the other two.

    Cruz is second preference for GOP voters, so it will probably end up a Trump v Cruz battle in the end which Trump surely wins
    The strategy is, surely, to lay Rubio.

    But my pockets aren't deep enough.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    HYUFD said:

    Among veterans (35% of electorate)
    Trump 35
    Rubio 25
    Cruz 23
    Jeb 7

    Somewhere Jeb! is holding his head in his hands, saying, "I don't get it..."
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    The very conservative upper state is starting to come in, Trump's lead should start to fall, if not then he wins.

    Indeed his lead is dropping.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Speedy said:

    So far the results are very good for Trump, however there are no reports from the Spartanburg area, one of the big 3 population areas for S.C. and the most conservative.

    SCGOPprimary exit poll:
    Upstate (30%)
    Trump 28%
    Cruz 25%
    Rubio 22%

    Midlands (23%):
    Trump 34
    Rubio 28
    Cruz 23

    LC (18%):
    Trump 28
    Rubio 28
  • Has there ever been, per $ spent, a worse candidate than Jeb!?

    http://morningconsult.com/2016/02/who-spent-the-most-in-s-c-and-nevada/

    Michael Bloomberg is said to be considering running for that record.
    Ha. Very true.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    NBC calling it for Trump, obvious call.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Sam SteinVerified account ‏@samsteinhp 2m2 minutes ago
    MSNBC projects Trump will win.

    WOW

    With less than 1%?
  • Incidentally it was clear Kasich was goigng to come second in NH when he won counties there unlike the others - I expect the same (for Cruz) in SC.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,674
    ABC calls it for Trump
  • NBC / ABC project Trump win. Never in doubt.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Trump 1.04

    I would not be popping the champagne yet if I were Trump.
    1.03 ?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Everyone projects a Trump victory.
    I'm surprised
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736

    HYUFD said:

    Among veterans (35% of electorate)
    Trump 35
    Rubio 25
    Cruz 23
    Jeb 7

    Somewhere Jeb! is holding his head in his hands, saying, "I don't get it..."
    I think he drops out in the next few days
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736

    HYUFD said:

    Too close for comfort for Trump. If Kasich and Bush and Carson drop out (or are merely seen to be lost causes - Bush is indeed possibly 5th), most of their votes will probably go to the other two.

    Cruz is second preference for GOP voters, so it will probably end up a Trump v Cruz battle in the end which Trump surely wins
    The strategy is, surely, to lay Rubio.

    But my pockets aren't deep enough.
    Yes, sounds sensible
  • Can Rubio get traction from this? Or is it Trump v. Cruz all the way?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Can Rubio get traction from this? Or is it Trump v. Cruz all the way?

    The media will declare Rubio the winner for coming a strong 3rd.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Too close for comfort for Trump. If Kasich and Bush and Carson drop out (or are merely seen to be lost causes - Bush is indeed possibly 5th), most of their votes will probably go to the other two.

    Cruz is second preference for GOP voters, so it will probably end up a Trump v Cruz battle in the end which Trump surely wins
    The strategy is, surely, to lay Rubio.

    But my pockets aren't deep enough.
    Yes, sounds sensible
    Wait - Rubio will come out this looking like a winner. For some unfathomable reason.

    Lay him then.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    OK now I'm calling it for Trump, Spartanburg is coming in and Trump leads there by 10.

    Now I see why the networks called it that early.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Fox News has now projected Trump has won the South Carolina primary as well
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Well I panic laid £130 of Trump @ 2.36 earlier but bought it all back at 2.4

    And backed him £!00 at 7 and laid it at 6.8 (My book is big enough on Trump Pres as it is)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    Speedy said:

    Can Rubio get traction from this? Or is it Trump v. Cruz all the way?

    The media will declare Rubio the winner for coming a strong 3rd.
    He'll be the comeback kid after 5th place in New Hampshire.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Too close for comfort for Trump. If Kasich and Bush and Carson drop out (or are merely seen to be lost causes - Bush is indeed possibly 5th), most of their votes will probably go to the other two.

    Cruz is second preference for GOP voters, so it will probably end up a Trump v Cruz battle in the end which Trump surely wins
    The strategy is, surely, to lay Rubio.

    But my pockets aren't deep enough.
    Yes, sounds sensible
    Wait - Rubio will come out this looking like a winner. For some unfathomable reason.

    Lay him then.
    True, an even better strategy
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Can Rubio get traction from this? Or is it Trump v. Cruz all the way?

    Cruz was a no-hoper from the start. Baggage and Math totally against him.

    Rubio the robot was the best hope. Slightly better chance than Bob Hope...

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump 1.01

    Is it 50-0?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Shy Trump in the exit polls I reckon LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Shy Trumpers ahaha this is the Tory strategy on steroids/.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Is Cruz clearly 2nd? Betfair thinks so - Rubio is 3 on the "without Trump" market.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    Is Cruz clearly 2nd? Betfair thinks so - Rubio is 3 on the "without Trump" market.

    Would not want to call 2nd at this stage.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Is Cruz clearly 2nd? Betfair thinks so - Rubio is 3 on the "without Trump" market.

    Nothing for 2nd in this game.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Shy Trump in the exit polls I reckon LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

    Indeed I think the Exit Polls had Trump too low.
    This doesn't look like Trump 30, it looks a bit like the opinion polls.
  • Is Cruz clearly 2nd? Betfair thinks so - Rubio is 3 on the "without Trump" market.

    I think the reason for that is that Rubio's team has been spinning that 3rd would be a great victory for him... So they clearly think he's coming 3rd.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    edited February 2016
    Trump Pres at 6.6 looks enourmous. I'm chock full tho
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    edited February 2016
    RodCrosby said:

    Is Cruz clearly 2nd? Betfair thinks so - Rubio is 3 on the "without Trump" market.

    Nothing for 2nd in this game.
    Relevant for betting - Betfair has a "winner not counting Trump" market, with Cruz on 1.33 and Rubio on 3.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2016
    RodCrosby said:

    Trump 1.01

    Is it 50-0?

    I laid about £4000 @ 1.01 a few mins ago.

    It's not a 1.01 shot.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Rudio suddenly down to 1.05!
  • Best guess

    1 . Trump 34
    2. Cruz 26
    3. Rubio 18






    As I said before the exits (though might have understated Trump's margin.)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    What are the chances of Bush and Carson throwing in the towel tonight?

    Bush high. The backers have turned the taps off...
    I would guess he's likely to endorse Rubio.
    He hates Rubio, that's not very likely.
    Who would he endorse?
  • Rudio suddenly down to 1.05!

    Lack of liquidity.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Shy Trump in the exit polls I reckon LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

    Indeed I think the Exit Polls had Trump too low.
    This doesn't look like Trump 30, it looks a bit like the opinion polls.
    The exits did not include absentee voters, including some of the military, who likely favoured Trump
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587

    Rudio suddenly down to 1.05!

    Lack of liquidity.
    Yes - potentially some pennies to be made as it bounces around, but barely worth bothering.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    What are the chances of Bush and Carson throwing in the towel tonight?

    Bush high. The backers have turned the taps off...
    I would guess he's likely to endorse Rubio.
    He hates Rubio, that's not very likely.
    Who would he endorse?
    Kasich.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    What are the chances of Bush and Carson throwing in the towel tonight?

    Bush high. The backers have turned the taps off...
    I would guess he's likely to endorse Rubio.
    He hates Rubio, that's not very likely.
    Who would he endorse?
    Kasich?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Well I panic laid £130 of Trump @ 2.36 earlier but bought it all back at 2.4

    And backed him £!00 at 7 and laid it at 6.8 (My book is big enough on Trump Pres as it is)

    I panic traded too. Shtoopid.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    CNN 5% in and projects Trump has won South Carolina as well
    32.2% Trump
    22.4% Rubio
    20.9% Cruz
    10.6% Bush
    8.0% Kasich
    6.0% Carson
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/sc/Rep
This discussion has been closed.