Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.
That is one way to look at it - ae
It's a geographic election. Trump will win ov.
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillary
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. Without Obama on the ticket Dem turnout will be lower. Ohio and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida all go Trump he wins.
No, w
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
She's never had to face someon
That is one way to look at it
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Re
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillary
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. Without Obama on the ticket Dem turnout will be lower. Ohio and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida all go Trump he wins.
No, wrong. Hispanics despise Trump and would vote for Satan if he was on the ballot against him, women will also vote for Hillary over Trump, though Trump will win white men by a large m
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)
Nevada, the Hispanic vote goes for Clinton, Pennsylvania even voted for John Kerry, Ohio is Clinton country, Virginia is increasingly a suburb of Democratic DC
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nominee
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353 DEM 46.6% 185
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly win
Says who?
Punters judging by their implied odds.
Ignore them. The last DEM to win an election after 2 (or more) previous terms was almost 70 years ago, and he was a new incumbent...
Only one non-incumbent DEM has achieved it. Van Buren in 1836, and he at least was Veep.
It's the GOP's to lose.
Yes, well looks like they are quite willing to lose it!!! If Rubio or Kascih were GOP nominee the GOP would almost certainly win, Trump or Cruz offers the Dems a get out of jail free card! Bush Snr also managed it for the GOP in 1988
You forget Clinton, who cancels any toxicity in the GOP candidate.
She trumps Trump in that department!
Besides, candidates are shown to have negligible impact on the fundamentals of the cycle...
Or looked at the other way Trump cancels any toxicity in Clinton, his unfavourables are just as bad if not worse. In 1968 Bobby Kennedy would likely have beaten Nixon, Nixon was able to beat Humphrey so that does not necessarily follow
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nominee
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353 DEM 46.6% 185
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly win
Says who?
The polls. Rubio leads Clinton by 4.7% in the RCP poll average, Clinton leads Trump by 2.8%. Rubio and Sanders are tied, Sanders leads Trump by 7.8% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
If all you needed was the polls, you wouldn't need PB and its successful contrarian pundits now, would you?
Indeed but until the evidence changes I will go on the evidence we have, delightful though these arguments are
Polls at this stage are not evidence of anything - except perhaps too many polls...
There are only 55 polls that matter - 50 states and 5 territories
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nominee
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353 DEM 46.6% 185
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly win
Says who?
The polls. Rubio leads Clinton by 4.7% in the RCP poll average, Clinton leads Trump by 2.8%. Rubio and Sanders are tied, Sanders leads Trump by 7.8% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
If all you needed was the polls, you wouldn't need PB and its successful contrarian pundits now, would you?
Indeed but until the evidence changes I will go on the evidence we have, delightful though these arguments are
Polls at this stage are not evidence of anything - except perhaps too many polls...
At this stage in 2012 Obama was beating Romney, in 2008 he was beating McCain, in 2004 Bush was beating Kerry, in 2000 Bush was beating Gore. They are not infallible, as 1980 showed but they cannot be dismissed either
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.
That is one way to look at it - ae
It's a geographic election. Trump will win ov.
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillary
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. Without Obama on the ticket Dem turnout will be lower. Ohio and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida all go Trump he wins.
No, w
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
She's never had to face someon
That is one way to look at it
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Re
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillary
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. Without Obama on the ticket Dem turnout will be lower. Ohio and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida all go Trump he wins.
No, wrong. Hispanics despise Trump and would vote for Satan if he was on the ballot against him, women will also vote for Hillary over Trump, though Trump will win white men by a large m
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)
Nevada, the Hispanic vote goes for Clinton, Pennsylvania even voted for John Kerry, Ohio is Clinton country, Virginia is increasingly a suburb of Democratic DC
Ohio is Kasich country. Which is why he'll be high up the VP list.
I'm making a speech to Atlanta and them I'm going to Nevada, I would like to thank my family, i have a great family, Ivanka to have her baby in S.C., we have a wonderful lieutenant government, i will take him anytime over the the governor because we won.
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nominee
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353 DEM 46.6% 185
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly win
Says who?
The polls. Rubio leads Clinton by 4.7% in the RCP poll average, Clinton leads Trump by 2.8%. Rubio and Sanders are tied, Sanders leads Trump by 7.8% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
If all you needed was the polls, you wouldn't need PB and its successful contrarian pundits now, would you?
Indeed but until the evidence changes I will go on the evidence we have, delightful though these arguments are
Polls at this stage are not evidence of anything - except perhaps too many polls...
At this stage in 2012 Obama was beating Romney, in 2008 he was beating McCain, in 2004 Bush was beating Kerry, in 2000 Bush was beating Gore. They are not infallible, as 1980 showed but they cannot be dismissed either
Yawn. Ignore polls, except perhaps those that may confirm the fundamentals, as all of your examples do...
I'm making a speech to Atlanta and them I'm going to Nevada, I would like to thank my family, i have a great family, Ivanka to have her baby in S.C., we have a wonderful lieutenant government, i will take him anytime over the the governor because we won.
Now Melania and Ivanka talk.
He's at the Georgia World Trade Center tomorrow at 4pm. As I saw him a few days ago I'm not going.
I'm making a speech to Atlanta and them I'm going to Nevada, I would like to thank my family, i have a great family, Ivanka to have her baby in S.C., we have a wonderful lieutenant government, i will take him anytime over the the governor because we won.
Now Melania and Ivanka talk.
He's at the Georgia World Trade Center tomorrow at 4pm. As I saw him a few days ago I'm not going.
I don't think they like protesters at Trump rallies.
I'm making a speech to Atlanta and them I'm going to Nevada, I would like to thank my family, i have a great family, Ivanka to have her baby in S.C., we have a wonderful lieutenant government, i will take him anytime over the the governor because we won.
Now Melania and Ivanka talk.
He's at the Georgia World Trade Center tomorrow at 4pm. As I saw him a few days ago I'm not going.
I don't think they like protesters at Trump rallies.
I just sit there quietly at the back wearing my Obama t-shirt so nobody will notice me.
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nominee
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353 DEM 46.6% 185
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly win
Says who?
The polls. Rubio leads Clinton by 4.7% in the RCP poll average, Clinton leads Trump by 2.8%. Rubio and Sanders are tied, Sanders leads Trump by 7.8% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
If all you needed was the polls, you wouldn't need PB and its successful contrarian pundits now, would you?
Indeed but until the evidence changes I will go on the evidence we have, delightful though these arguments are
Polls at this stage are not evidence of anything - except perhaps too many polls...
At this stage in
Yawn. Ignore polls, except perhaps those that may confirm the fundamentals, as all of your examples do...
The fundamentals say GOP by a mile.
The fundamentals say a reformed GOP which reaches out to Hispanics in a US with a rising minority population could win, they also say a Republican party which reaches back to its comfort zone of the 1950s and attacks Hispanics and gay marriage and the modern world will not!
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353 DEM 46.6% 185
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly win
Says who?
The polls. Rubio leads Clinton by 4.7% in the RCP poll average, Clinton leads Trump by 2.8%. Rubio and Sanders are tied, Sanders leads Trump by 7.8% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
If all you needed was the polls, you wouldn't need PB and its successful contrarian pundits now, would you?
Indeed but until the evidence changes I will go on the evidence we have, delightful though these arguments are
Polls at this stage are not evidence of anything - except perhaps too many polls...
At this stage in 2012 Obama was beating Romney, in 2008 he was beating McCain, in 2004 Bush was beating Kerry, in 2000 Bush was beating Gore. They are not infallible, as 1980 showed but they cannot be dismissed either
Yawn. Ignore polls, except perhaps those that may confirm the fundamentals, as all of your examples do...
The fundamentals say GOP by a mile.
The fundamentals say a reformed GOP which reaches out to Hispanics in a US with a rising minority population could win, they also say a Republican party which reaches back to its comfort zone of the 1950s and attacks Hispanics and the modern world will not!
Guff, that's not fundamentals. That's special pleading/wishful thinking...
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.
That is one way to look at it - ae
It's a geographic election. Trump will win ov.
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillary
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. Without Obama on the ticket Dem turnout will be lower. Ohio and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida all go Trump he wins.
No, w
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
She's never had to face someon
That is one way to look at it
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Re
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillary
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. W
No, wrong. Hispanics despise Trump and would vote for Satan if he was on the ballot against him, women will also vote for Hillary over Trump, though Trump will win white men by a large m
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)
Nevada, the Hispanic vote goes for Clinton, Pennsylvania even voted for John Kerry, Ohio is Clinton country, Virginia is increasingly a suburb of Democratic DC
Ohio is Kasich country. Which is why he'll be high up the VP list.
Even if Clinton lost Ohio she still wins with Nevada and Virginia
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353 DEM 46.6% 185
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly win
Says who?
The polls. Rubio leads Cli
If all y
Indeed but until the evidence changes I will go on the evidence we have, delightful though these arguments are
Polls at this stage are not evidence of anything - except perhaps too many polls...
At this stage in 2012 Obama was beatin
Yawn. Ignore polls, except perhaps those that may confirm the fundamentals, as all of your examples do...
The fundamentals say GOP by a mile.
The fundamentals say a reformed GOP which reaches out to Hispanics in a US with a rising minority population could win, they also say a Republican party which reaches back to its comfort zone of the 1950s and attacks Hispanics and the modern world will not!
Guff, that's not fundamentals. That's special pleading/wishful thinking...
Nope, that is your wishful thinking, Romney won the highest share of the white vote since 1988 in 2012 and still lost. Trump could win an even higher share and also lose because well over a third of the electorate is minority and the GOP is not making the inroads they need into that vote to win, indeed Trump could even take them backwards with the Hispanic vote
Reagan, Morning in america, assuming the mantle of leardership, reagan, reagan, reagan, who are we, 21st century, Tim Scott, 21st century, immigrants, Nicky Haley, 21st century, my father was a bartender from Cuba, we are a nation, we are a nation, 21st century, 21st century, 21st century, limited government, join us, we are down to 3, unify our country, MarcoRubio.com, 60 years ago from Cuba, my parents.
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.
That is one way to look at it - ae
It's a geographic election. Trump will win ov.
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillary
No, w
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
She's never had to face someon
That is one way to look at it
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Re
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillary
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. W
No, wrong. Hispanics despise Trump and would vote for Satan if he was on the ballot against him, women will also vote for Hillary over Trump, though Trump will win white men by a large m
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)
Nevada, the Hispanic vote goes for Clinton, Pennsylvania even voted for John Kerry, Ohio is Clinton country, Virginia is increasingly a suburb of Democratic DC
Ohio is Kasich country. Which is why he'll be high up the VP list.
Even if Clinton lost Ohio she still wins with Nevada and Virginia
If Kasich stays in until Ohio, he could probably block Trump and let Rubio win it.
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.
That is one way to look at it - ae
It's a geographic election. Trump will win ov.
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillary
No, w
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
She's never had to face someon
That is one way to look at it
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Re
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillary
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. W
No,
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)
Nevada, the Hispanic vote goes for Clinton, Pennsylvania even voted for John Kerry, Ohio is Clinton country, Virginia is increasingly a suburb of Democratic DC
Ohio is Kasich country. Which is why he'll be high up the VP list.
Even if Clinton lost Ohio she still wins with Nevada and Virginia
If Kasich stays in until Ohio, he could probably block Trump and let Rubio win it.
If anything I would have thought Kasich staying in helps Trump
Reagan, Morning in america, assuming the mantle of leardership, reagan, reagan, reagan, who are we, 21st century, Tim Scott, 21st century, immigrants, Nicky Haley, 21st century, my father was a bartender from Cuba, we are a nation, we are a nation, 21st century, 21st century, 21st century, limited government, join us, we are down to 3, unify our country, MarcoRubio.com, 60 years ago from Cuba, my parents.
Yes I think we know the Rubio speech off by heart by now, it works well when he can recite it unchallenged, rather less well when he has to think on his feet as the NH debate showed
GOOOD bless the great state of S.C, we made history, our volunteers, we defied the pundits, let me praise Jeb Bush, he ran a campaign based on substance, he didn't go to the gutter, we give our best to the Bush family, I want to thank my team Jeff Dunkan Mark Sanford ect ect ect ect ect ect ect and all 7 of their kids and the 500 pastors that endorsed me, Iowa, N.H, S.C, we don't know the results, we are tied for second, we defied expectations, screaming youth across the potomac are scared (Rubio), a moment of silence for Scalia, I attended his funeral, I knew him well for 20 years, Reagan and Scalia, underscores the stakes, 2 branches at stake, no washington power brokers, we the people , this election will be a referendum on the supreme court, Sanders Hillary socialists, constitution abortion guns bible, they said we will never win and we defied expectations, false and nasty attacks against us, everyone was against us, S.C gave us a remarkable result, Iowa, N.H. S.C, 1st conservatives unite behind us, i;m the only strong conservative in the race, we our the only ones that have beaten Trump, that's why he attacks me, I congratulate him, i say to america, Trump will lose against the democrats, i will have a strong contrast, volunteers, TedCruz.org .
Cruz: Life, guns, flat tax, abolish IRS, only one candidate, amnesty, only one, ethanol and won Iowa, I will rebuilt the military, stand up for Israel, utterly destroy ISIS, together we secure the borders, make america safe, I give you my word, i will appoint constitutionalists, I will fight with every breath, liberties blesses to inherit, we fight, we love our children we will not give up, Nevada, Super Tuesday, Iowa, N.H, S.C have given a choice, no washington dealmakers, stand together with principled constitutional conservative.
It's still possible that Cruz may take second place, he's only 900 votes behind Rubio and in the counties still to be completed he's beating Rubio, he might close it by another 250 votes by York county and then close it by 10, 20, 30 votes here and there in each of the smaller counties.
The close contest between Rubio and Cruz for 2nd place reminds me of the statistical equation that
If candidate A has a votes, and if candidate B has b votes, and if the votes are mixed up and counted one by one in a random order, there is a probability of (a-b)/(a+b) that A will be ahead of B throughout the entire count.
It's still possible that Cruz may take second place, he's only 900 votes behind Rubio and in the counties still to be completed he's beating Rubio, he might close it by another 250 votes by York county and then close it by 10, 20, 30 votes here and there in each of the smaller counties.
Unlikely - Rubio's been between 800-1000 votes ahead for well over an hour.
It reminds me of the time when Bill Clinton used to pledge that he would get the USA into the 21st Century, and then Rory Bremner (as Clinton) pointed out that we would get there anyway.
Steve Kornacki @SteveKornacki 3h3 hours ago Trump becomes the fourth Republican since 1980 to lose Iowa, then win both NH and SC. The others were Reagan '80, Bush '88 and McCain '08.
That sums it up.
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict 9m9 minutes ago Projection: Donald Trump has won all 50 South Carolina delegates.
The close contest between Rubio and Cruz for 2nd place reminds me of the statistical equation that
If candidate A has a votes, and if candidate B has b votes, and if the votes are mixed up and counted one by one in a random order, there is a probability of (a-b)/(a+b) that A will be ahead of B throughout the entire count.
I think there needs to be a modulus in there or something. Otheriwse there would be a negative probability of B had one more vote than A
Just got an email from Stronger In - "This is what we are up against - Nigel Farage and George Galloway" not a lot of ball playing going on!
Dangerous... risks their team getting complacent.... and a reply email with pictures of McMao, Eddy Izzard and Gerry Adams... and if they are really unlucky, Emma Thompson
Just got an email from Stronger In - "This is what we are up against - Nigel Farage and George Galloway" not a lot of ball playing going on!
Dangerous... risks their team getting complacent.... and a reply email with pictures of McMao, Eddy Izzard and Gerry Adams... and if they are really unlucky, Emma Thompson
True - but if they can turn a "Vote for Leave" into a "Vote for Nigel & George" they'll be happy enough....
If you vote ‘stay’ in the referendum, it means: The permanent supremacy of EU law We keep sending over £350 million every week to Brussels – 60 times more than we spend on the NHS Cancer Fund Permanent EU control of trade, human rights, and migration Your money will be spent on propping up the euro
If you vote ‘stay’ in the referendum, it means: The permanent supremacy of EU law We keep sending over £350 million every week to Brussels – 60 times more than we spend on the NHS Cancer Fund Permanent EU control of trade, human rights, and migration Your money will be spent on propping up the euro
How do they justify their final claim?
Part of the funds we pay to the EU goes to maintaining this monstrosity:
Likewise, we have established once and for all in international law that Britain's national security is the sole responsibility of the British Government – so, for instance, we will never be part of a European Army.
The changes will be legally binding in international law, and will be deposited at the UN.
the review by the Court of the validity of any Community measure in the light of fundamental rights must be considered to be the expression, in a community based on the rule of law, of a constitutional guarantee stemming from the EC Treaty as an autonomous legal system which is not to be prejudiced by an international agreement.
Just got an email from Stronger In - "This is what we are up against - Nigel Farage and George Galloway" not a lot of ball playing going on!
Dangerous... risks their team getting complacent.... and a reply email with pictures of McMao, Eddy Izzard and Gerry Adams... and if they are really unlucky, Emma Thompson
True - but if they can turn a "Vote for Leave" into a "Vote for Nigel & George" they'll be happy enough....
This is what political debate in the UK has descended to. Perhaps Simon Cowell can host election night broadcasts.
Just got an email from Stronger In - "This is what we are up against - Nigel Farage and George Galloway" not a lot of ball playing going on!
Dangerous... risks their team getting complacent.... and a reply email with pictures of McMao, Eddy Izzard and Gerry Adams... and if they are really unlucky, Emma Thompson
True - but if they can turn a "Vote for Leave" into a "Vote for Nigel & George" they'll be happy enough....
This is what political debate in the UK has descended to. Perhaps Simon Cowell can host election night broadcasts.
A lot of Leave is equally personal character attacks. Sauce for the goose...
Bitch of the day? @BBCWorldatOne Alan Johnson: "Let's be kind, they're not the six most astute politicians that I've ever met in the Cabinet" #tw2 pic.twitter.com/lwuqT9ep0d Retweeted by Nick Sutton
Comments
http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20150924/PC1603/150929585/1031/bush-says-he-x2019-ll-win-sc-primary-x2018-take-it-to-the-bank-x2019
Surely a recount is required...
Yawn...
Never make an assumption about debate winners until you see the voting intention.
He's unusually self aware for a politician.
On Trump and the GOP.
I'm making a speech to Atlanta and them I'm going to Nevada, I would like to thank my family, i have a great family, Ivanka to have her baby in S.C., we have a wonderful lieutenant government, i will take him anytime over the the governor because we won.
Now Melania and Ivanka talk.
The fundamentals say GOP by a mile.
He is just trolling the world now isn't he, lol
edit: Melania
"We are going to a plan that is so much better than Obamacare and so much less expensive."
I predict that he will declare victory.
"I'm Congratulating Donald Trump for winning, this is a 3 person race and I will win the nomination."
"Jeb Bush has many things to be proud of"
He's licking Jeb's behinds.
There he goes again.
Reagan, Morning in america, assuming the mantle of leardership, reagan, reagan, reagan, who are we, 21st century, Tim Scott, 21st century, immigrants, Nicky Haley, 21st century, my father was a bartender from Cuba, we are a nation, we are a nation, 21st century, 21st century, 21st century, limited government, join us, we are down to 3, unify our country, MarcoRubio.com, 60 years ago from Cuba, my parents.
Ted Cruz has not won a single county in SC today
More the cassette of the night.
They don't call him Marco Roboto for nothing.
Example: S.C. Trump 33% of the vote, 100% of the delegates.
Audience member: "Yeah, spoiler alert."
GOOOD bless the great state of S.C, we made history, our volunteers, we defied the pundits, let me praise Jeb Bush, he ran a campaign based on substance, he didn't go to the gutter, we give our best to the Bush family, I want to thank my team Jeff Dunkan Mark Sanford ect ect ect ect ect ect ect and all 7 of their kids and the 500 pastors that endorsed me, Iowa, N.H, S.C, we don't know the results, we are tied for second, we defied expectations, screaming youth across the potomac are scared (Rubio), a moment of silence for Scalia, I attended his funeral, I knew him well for 20 years, Reagan and Scalia, underscores the stakes, 2 branches at stake, no washington power brokers, we the people , this election will be a referendum on the supreme court, Sanders Hillary socialists, constitution abortion guns bible, they said we will never win and we defied expectations, false and nasty attacks against us, everyone was against us, S.C gave us a remarkable result, Iowa, N.H. S.C, 1st conservatives unite behind us, i;m the only strong conservative in the race, we our the only ones that have beaten Trump, that's why he attacks me, I congratulate him, i say to america, Trump will lose against the democrats, i will have a strong contrast, volunteers, TedCruz.org .
This could work for Cruz/
https://mtc.cdn.vine.co/r/videos/9782DF1FEA1313021335768801280_5c74176cb39.5.0.16623677992623877266.mp4?versionId=PbXvX4T4y8TsfZJu8mT6lmlqylobnqYm
Life, guns, flat tax, abolish IRS, only one candidate, amnesty, only one, ethanol and won Iowa, I will rebuilt the military, stand up for Israel, utterly destroy ISIS, together we secure the borders, make america safe, I give you my word, i will appoint constitutionalists, I will fight with every breath, liberties blesses to inherit, we fight, we love our children we will not give up, Nevada, Super Tuesday, Iowa, N.H, S.C have given a choice, no washington dealmakers, stand together with principled constitutional conservative.
If candidate A has a votes,
and if candidate B has b votes,
and if the votes are mixed up and counted one by one in a random order,
there is a probability of (a-b)/(a+b)
that A will be ahead of B throughout the entire count.
Cruz has not won a single county in SC
It reminds me of the time when Bill Clinton used to pledge that he would get the USA into the 21st Century, and then Rory Bremner (as Clinton) pointed out that we would get there anyway.
Trump becomes the fourth Republican since 1980 to lose Iowa, then win both NH and SC. The others were Reagan '80, Bush '88 and McCain '08.
That sums it up.
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict 9m9 minutes ago
Projection: Donald Trump has won all 50 South Carolina delegates.
Goodnight.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html
Makes him look look oyunger than he is !
amy walter @amyewalter 3h3 hours ago
Once again, Trump’s winning across class/education/party/ideology/ religion lines. Going to be hard to stop. Yeah Trump only having a 19 point lead over Cruz in Florida and a 23 point lead over Rubio, with Bush at 4% .
We can start being sarcastic.
If you vote ‘stay’ in the referendum, it means:
The permanent supremacy of EU law
We keep sending over £350 million every week to Brussels – 60 times more than we spend on the NHS Cancer Fund
Permanent EU control of trade, human rights, and migration
Your money will be spent on propping up the euro
How do they justify their final claim?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35616946
http://c8.alamy.com/comp/AAE2K7/frankfurt-am-main-the-euro-monument-in-front-of-the-european-central-AAE2K7.jpg
Perhaps
https://twitter.com/BeataSzydlo/status/700804227753492480
New Thread New Thread
There is a lot more cross border commutting in Central Europe, so family benifits related issuus can be quite a tangle.
@BBCWorldatOne
Alan Johnson: "Let's be kind, they're not the six most astute politicians that I've ever met in the Cabinet" #tw2 pic.twitter.com/lwuqT9ep0d
Retweeted by Nick Sutton