If Cameron doesn't sack Gove IDS and Grayling it'll show enormous weakness. We saw today the impossibility of their positions. "Are you saying the Prime Minister is being dishonest?" "Don't you believe him when he says this is a good deal for Britain" and it'll only get worse.
Think How Mourinho and Guardiola are destabilising United and City and it gives some idea of the shambles that'll be going on in government
You're looking well Rog, been tanning yourself I see.
I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro
That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.
How on earth can you call the next hundred years?
One close referendum a second potentially makes, a second landslide referendum tends to settle the issue for good
It really doesn't. If the fundamentals change, and public opinion clamours for a referendum way above 50% for any serious and sustained period of time, then we'll eventually have a referendum even if we vote in June to Remain by 20% and in a second referendum in 10 years later by 90%.
There is no such thing as an issue closing down for good. There just isn't.
What it will do is massively raise the threshold and require a serious and overwhelming case for a third, probably at a distant point in the future but no means certainly.
I thought everyone was saying the party wouldn't be split afterwards. Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?
Is a silly headline, here's what Cameron has said in the Sunday Times
When reports broke that Michael Gove, one of his closest friends in politics, would back Brexit, Cameron dismissed the news as “not a surprise”. But he now admits he was hurt by the move.
“Obviously I am sad about it because he is a close friend and a very close colleague,” he said, before adding that Gove “will remain both of those things”.
Asked if it might affect their friendship, he said: “I very much hope not.”
Cameron also vowed not to axe ministers who have defied him in his next reshuffle. “My thoughts are nowhere near reshuffles. What I can say is that no one will be at any disadvantage by choosing to campaign in a particular way,” he said.
“I want as many ministers and MPs to support the cause that I think is right but people have thought about these things very carefully and we are all going to respect each other and the choices we make, and no one will suffer disadvantage for a decision to go one way or the other way.”
Wasn't Osborne saying to ministers "you can campaign to leave or you can have a career"? Someone should ask Cameron if he knew anything about that.
As other people reported at the time, it was said in jest and Osborne also has been working hard with the Leavers to try and keep the party united post referendum.
Must be an outlier - the "deal" was worse than that between Darth Vader and Lando in The Empire Strikes Back!
This is true, but it's too complicated for the voters to work this out for themselves and the people they trust the most are telling them the opposite.
As I don't have an insight into or care for the internal politicking of the Tory party, it seems to me to on the face of it reasonable if Cameron were to axe all those who campaign for Out from his Cabinet. I agree with their stance, but it is in effect saying Cameron is wrong about a fundamental issue for the country, even though they are being polite about it. He'd be entitled to sack them in those circumstances.
Now, that might not be a good idea as far as party unity goes, and in fact the opposite was stated to be the plan in the past few weeks - that is, Eurosceptics would be promoted, or at least retained - but I don't see why it would be a betrayal by Cameron either.
I completely disagree. This should be considered a conscience free vote and unlike in the Labour party were those who "rebelled" on a free vote were then suddenly facing calls for sackings or deselection, for us Tories free should mean free. This is more important than Cameron, Gove or Boris and people should have a free and respectful campaign.
If Gove were to come out and say "Cameron is a liar" then he should be sacked but as long as it is respectful then it is a free vote.
This is possibly the best-written Out piece I have ever read. It is articles like this and Hannan that make me seriously think twice about how I'm going to vote.
If Cameron doesn't sack Gove IDS and Grayling it'll show enormous weakness. We saw today the impossibility of their positions. "Are you saying the Prime Minister is being dishonest?" "Don't you believe him when he says this is a good deal for Britain" and it'll only get worse.
Think How Mourinho and Guardiola are destabilising United and City and it gives some idea of the shambles that'll be going on in government
You're looking well Rog, been tanning yourself I see.
I recall a trilogy of books, the name of which escapes me, which involved a near future fleet of ships getting accidentally sent back in time to WW2 - the present day setting featured in essence a global war against Islamic extremism, and the standard operating procedure of the western powers had become to kill the enemy then sew them up in pigskins to further humiliate them, or something to that effect.
It also featured Prince Harry as a badass veteran SAS commando, meeting his young grandparents. It wasn't very good though.
I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro
That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.
How on earth can you call the next hundred years?
Humanity will be obsolete by 2040 in any case...
Oh good, so humanity ceases just before I collect my pension, that will solve retirement plans! Or we will have merged with robots in the singularity!
It won't cease to exist. It will just be obsolete. It could still be used as food or fuel. Hope this helps with your retirement planning.
So we become food or fuel for robots then, that pretty much means we cease to exist on any definition. Though this seems like yet another of the armagaddon theories which have done the rounds for generations, who knows what will happen, we could even become part android ourselves!
As I don't have an insight into or care for the internal politicking of the Tory party, it seems to me to on the face of it reasonable if Cameron were to axe all those who campaign for Out from his Cabinet. I agree with their stance, but it is in effect saying Cameron is wrong about a fundamental issue for the country, even though they are being polite about it. He'd be entitled to sack them in those circumstances.
Now, that might not be a good idea as far as party unity goes, and in fact the opposite was stated to be the plan in the past few weeks - that is, Eurosceptics would be promoted, or at least retained - but I don't see why it would be a betrayal by Cameron either.
I completely disagree. This should be considered a conscience free vote and unlike in the Labour party were those who "rebelled" on a free vote were then suddenly facing calls for sackings or deselection, for us Tories free should mean free. This is more important than Cameron, Gove or Boris and people should have a free and respectful campaign.
If Gove were to come out and say "Cameron is a liar" then he should be sacked but as long as it is respectful then it is a free vote.
I thought everyone was saying the party wouldn't be split afterwards. Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?
Is a silly headline, here's what Cameron has said in the Sunday Times
When reports broke that Michael Gove, one of his closest friends in politics, would back Brexit, Cameron dismissed the news as “not a surprise”. But he now admits he was hurt by the move.
“Obviously I am sad about it because he is a close friend and a very close colleague,” he said, before adding that Gove “will remain both of those things”.
Asked if it might affect their friendship, he said: “I very much hope not.”
Cameron also vowed not to axe ministers who have defied him in his next reshuffle. “My thoughts are nowhere near reshuffles. What I can say is that no one will be at any disadvantage by choosing to campaign in a particular way,” he said.
“I want as many ministers and MPs to support the cause that I think is right but people have thought about these things very carefully and we are all going to respect each other and the choices we make, and no one will suffer disadvantage for a decision to go one way or the other way.”
Wasn't Osborne saying to ministers "you can campaign to leave or you can have a career"? Someone should ask Cameron if he knew anything about that.
As other people reported at the time, it was said in jest and Osborne also has been working hard with the Leavers to try and keep the party united post referendum.
This is possibly the best-written Out piece I have ever read. It is articles like this and Hannan that make me seriously think twice about how I'm going to vote.
He's a class act.
Gove, Hoey, Field, Carswell. If they keep putting those four forward and keep the more manic sceptics behind closer doors, they could look very credible.
I thought everyone was saying the party wouldn't be split afterwards. Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?
Is a silly headline, here's what Cameron has said in the Sunday Times
When reports broke that Michael Gove, one of his closest friends in politics, would back Brexit, Cameron dismissed the news as “not a surprise”. But he now admits he was hurt by the move.
“Obviously I am sad about it because he is a close friend and a very close colleague,” he said, before adding that Gove “will remain both of those things”.
Asked if it might affect their friendship, he said: “I very much hope not.”
Cameron also vowed not to axe ministers who have defied him in his next reshuffle. “My thoughts are nowhere near reshuffles. What I can say is that no one will be at any disadvantage by choosing to campaign in a particular way,” he said.
“I want as many ministers and MPs to support the cause that I think is right but people have thought about these things very carefully and we are all going to respect each other and the choices we make, and no one will suffer disadvantage for a decision to go one way or the other way.”
Wasn't Osborne saying to ministers "you can campaign to leave or you can have a career"? Someone should ask Cameron if he knew anything about that.
Osborne also has been working hard with the Leavers to try and keep the party united post referendum.
Like Cromwell trying hard to get some Presbyterian MPs to return after Pride's Purge. We know how well that worked. Could be too late?
Edit: Just trying to mix up the historical references.
Boris has been hugely diminished by this. If he had a principled position, like Gove he would have declared it by now. His opportunism and calculation are just so obvious it's almost embarrassing, though not in any way surprising.
I thought everyone was saying the party wouldn't be split afterwards. Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?
Is a silly headline, here's what Cameron has said in the Sunday Times
When reports broke that Michael Gove, one of his closest friends in politics, would back Brexit, Cameron dismissed the news as “not a surprise”. But he now admits he was hurt by the move.
“Obviously I am sad about it because he is a close friend and a very close colleague,” he said, before adding that Gove “will remain both of those things”.
Asked if it might affect their friendship, he said: “I very much hope not.”
Cameron also vowed not to axe ministers who have defied him in his next reshuffle. “My thoughts are nowhere near reshuffles. What I can say is that no one will be at any disadvantage by choosing to campaign in a particular way,” he said.
“I want as many ministers and MPs to support the cause that I think is right but people have thought about these things very carefully and we are all going to respect each other and the choices we make, and no one will suffer disadvantage for a decision to go one way or the other way.”
Wasn't Osborne saying to ministers "you can campaign to leave or you can have a career"? Someone should ask Cameron if he knew anything about that.
As other people reported at the time, it was said in jest and Osborne also has been working hard with the Leavers to try and keep the party united post referendum.
Boris has been hugely diminished by this. If he had a principled position, like Gove he would have declared it by now. His opportunism and calculation are just so obvious it's almost embarrassing, though not in any way surprising.
He's pushed back his declaration to 10pm tomorrow evening now, if the Sunday Times is to be believed.
I thought everyone was saying the party wouldn't be split afterwards. Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?
Is a silly headline, here's what Cameron has said in the Sunday Times
When reports broke that Michael Gove, one of his closest friends in politics, would back Brexit, Cameron dismissed the news as “not a surprise”. But he now admits he was hurt by the move.
“Obviously I am sad about it because he is a close friend and a very close colleague,” he said, before adding that Gove “will remain both of those things”.
Asked if it might affect their friendship, he said: “I very much hope not.”
Cameron also vowed not to axe ministers who have defied him in his next reshuffle. “My thoughts are nowhere near reshuffles. What I can say is that no one will be at any disadvantage by choosing to campaign in a particular way,” he said.
“I want as many ministers and MPs to support the cause that I think is right but people have thought about these things very carefully and we are all going to respect each other and the choices we make, and no one will suffer disadvantage for a decision to go one way or the other way.”
Wasn't Osborne saying to ministers "you can campaign to leave or you can have a career"? Someone should ask Cameron if he knew anything about that.
As other people reported at the time, it was said in jest and Osborne also has been working hard with the Leavers to try and keep the party united post referendum.
Can you link the bit about it being in jest? I struggle to believe that. Sounds like a real underlying threat to it.
I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.
Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro
That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.
How on earth can you call the next hundred years?
One close referendum a second potentially makes, a second landslide referendum tends to settle the issue for good
It really doesn't. If the fundamentals change, and public opinion clamours for a referendum way above 50% for any serious and sustained period of time, then we'll eventually have a referendum even if we vote in June to Remain by 20% and in a second referendum in 10 years later by 90%.
There is no such thing as an issue closing down for good. There just isn't.
What it will do is massively raise the threshold and require a serious and overwhelming case for a third, probably at a distant point in the future but no means certainly.
What fundamentals, the public would have endorsed an EU which has a significant degree of influence over most aspects of government policy regardless of the minor concessions Cameron has achieved. Yes, it is possible of course the public could change its mind again completely but unlikely, if anything the younger generation is more pro EU than the older generation. The one issue there is overwhelming opposition to is the Euro, that I accept could be a gamechanger though I cannot see any PM ever recommending membership
As I don't have an insight into or care for the internal politicking of the Tory party, it seems to me to on the face of it reasonable if Cameron were to axe all those who campaign for Out from his Cabinet. I agree with their stance, but it is in effect saying Cameron is wrong about a fundamental issue for the country, even though they are being polite about it. He'd be entitled to sack them in those circumstances.
Now, that might not be a good idea as far as party unity goes, and in fact the opposite was stated to be the plan in the past few weeks - that is, Eurosceptics would be promoted, or at least retained - but I don't see why it would be a betrayal by Cameron either.
I completely disagree. This should be considered a conscience free vote and unlike in the Labour party were those who "rebelled" on a free vote were then suddenly facing calls for sackings or deselection, for us Tories free should mean free. This is more important than Cameron, Gove or Boris and people should have a free and respectful campaign.
If Gove were to come out and say "Cameron is a liar" then he should be sacked but as long as it is respectful then it is a free vote.
I'm not saying he should be sacked. Just that it wouldn't be a grand betrayal (it could easily be suggested a united Cabinet would be a better option all around). If they remain respectful, as they are attempting, I've no doubt nothing of the sort will happen for the reasons you suggest.
Boris has been hugely diminished by this. If he had a principled position, like Gove he would have declared it by now. His opportunism and calculation are just so obvious it's almost embarrassing, though not in any way surprising.
He's pushed back his declaration to 10pm tomorrow evening now, if the Sunday Times is to be believed.
At this rate, he will be announcing his decision on the 24th June...
I recall a trilogy of books, the name of which escapes me, which involved a near future fleet of ships getting accidentally sent back in time to WW2 - the present day setting featured in essence a global war against Islamic extremism, and the standard operating procedure of the western powers had become to kill the enemy then sew them up in pigskins to further humiliate them, or something to that effect.
It also featured Prince Harry as a badass veteran SAS commando, meeting his young grandparents. It wasn't very good though.
I thought everyone was saying the party wouldn't be split afterwards. Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?
Is a silly headline, here's what Cameron has said in the Sunday Times
When reports broke that Michael Gove, one of his closest friends in politics, would back Brexit, Cameron dismissed the news as “not a surprise”. But he now admits he was hurt by the move.
“Obviously I am sad about it because he is a close friend and a very close colleague,” he said, before adding that Gove “will remain both of those things”.
Asked if it might affect their friendship, he said: “I very much hope not.”
Cameron also vowed not to axe ministers who have defied him in his next reshuffle. “My thoughts are nowhere near reshuffles. What I can say is that no one will be at any disadvantage by choosing to campaign in a particular way,” he said.
“I want as many ministers and MPs to support the cause that I think is right but people have thought about these things very carefully and we are all going to respect each other and the choices we make, and no one will suffer disadvantage for a decision to go one way or the other way.”
Wasn't Osborne saying to ministers "you can campaign to leave or you can have a career"? Someone should ask Cameron if he knew anything about that.
As other people reported at the time, it was said in jest and Osborne also has been working hard with the Leavers to try and keep the party united post referendum.
Was it a Julius Caesar/pirates type joke?
It's more like what I do to my staff
"Would you mind finishing this report/project for me, I can't be arsed, which reminds me, we've got to schedule your annual appraisal soon"
This is possibly the best-written Out piece I have ever read. It is articles like this and Hannan that make me seriously think twice about how I'm going to vote.
He's a class act.
Gove, Hoey, Field, Carswell. If they keep putting those four forward and keep the more manic sceptics behind closer doors, they could look very credible.
Gove, Hoey, Field, Carswell vs Farage, Bone, Galloway, etc ... I know which grouping I find more credible.
I honestly think if GO get chosen to be the official Leave campaign that will add about 5% to the Remain vote.
Poor old Chris Grayling will very soon acquire the epithet 'beleaguered'. He's just been interviewed by Laura K and to describe him as looking uncomfortable would hardly do it justice
Boris has been hugely diminished by this. If he had a principled position, like Gove he would have declared it by now. His opportunism and calculation are just so obvious it's almost embarrassing, though not in any way surprising.
He's pushed back his declaration to 10pm tomorrow evening now, if the Sunday Times is to be believed.
At this rate, he will be announcing his decision on the 24th June...
Veterans for Britain @VeteransBritain We believe the PM is wrong and EU m'ship makes us less safe. UK is shackled to supranational EU defence policy. We have a historic choice.
Boris has been hugely diminished by this. If he had a principled position, like Gove he would have declared it by now. His opportunism and calculation are just so obvious it's almost embarrassing, though not in any way surprising.
He's pushed back his declaration to 10pm tomorrow evening now, if the Sunday Times is to be believed.
That sounds like he'll be spilling the beans in his Torygraph column. I wonder if they are paying him a bonus for the exclusive.
Boris has been hugely diminished by this. If he had a principled position, like Gove he would have declared it by now. His opportunism and calculation are just so obvious it's almost embarrassing, though not in any way surprising.
He's pushed back his declaration to 10pm tomorrow evening now, if the Sunday Times is to be believed.
That sounds like he'll be spilling the beans in his Torygraph column. I wonder if they are paying him a bonus for the exclusive.
If it's announced in his column then that could make sense and would excuse a delay. Though that would imply a Leave vote to me, the Torygraph wouldn't pay a bonus for a Remain column I suspect.
Boris has been hugely diminished by this. If he had a principled position, like Gove he would have declared it by now. His opportunism and calculation are just so obvious it's almost embarrassing, though not in any way surprising.
He's pushed back his declaration to 10pm tomorrow evening now, if the Sunday Times is to be believed.
At this rate, he will be announcing his decision on the 24th June...
LOL!
At this point leaving it until the last day would actually be his best move. He'd set himself up as the undecided swing voter listening to the arguments on both sides. It keeps him in the news and makes it easier to back the winning side.
I thought everyone was saying the party wouldn't be split afterwards. Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?
Is a silly headline, here's what Cameron has said in the Sunday Times
When reports broke that Michael Gove, one of his closest friends in politics, would back Brexit, Cameron dismissed the news as “not a surprise”. But he now admits he was hurt by the move.
“Obviously I am sad about it because he is a close friend and a very close colleague,” he said, before adding that Gove “will remain both of those things”.
Asked if it might affect their friendship, he said: “I very much hope not.”
Cameron also vowed not to axe ministers who have defied him in his next reshuffle. “My thoughts are nowhere near reshuffles. What I can say is that no one will be at any disadvantage by choosing to campaign in a particular way,” he said.
“I want as many ministers and MPs to support the cause that I think is right but people have thought about these things very carefully and we are all going to respect each other and the choices we make, and no one will suffer disadvantage for a decision to go one way or the other way.”
Wasn't Osborne saying to ministers "you can campaign to leave or you can have a career"? Someone should ask Cameron if he knew anything about that.
As other people reported at the time, it was said in jest and Osborne also has been working hard with the Leavers to try and keep the party united post referendum.
Can you link the bit about it being in jest? I struggle to believe that. Sounds like a real underlying threat to it.
Suddenly the referendum all that bit more real isn't it?
I still very much wish that the REMAIN option was a bit more pro-EU than it is... Even the very word "remain" is a grudging kind of word... But, hey, we are where we are and people like myself have just got to stop moaning, deal with the fact that closer integration is off the menu and do our best with the cards that have been dealt. So I've just made my first small donation to Britain Stronger in Europe. I feel better for it.
They seem pretty convinced it's a done deal with Boris and he's joining the Outers. If as we all think his principles extend as far as his leadership ambitions this seems like a rather foolish move.
Boris has been hugely diminished by this. If he had a principled position, like Gove he would have declared it by now. His opportunism and calculation are just so obvious it's almost embarrassing, though not in any way surprising.
I think thats unfair. I could imagine Johnson was planning to back Remain from a genuine in with reform perspective. Then saw how bad the early draft was and felt unsure as it didn't go far enough. Then it got even worse. Now he really thinks Leave is better but because he's had to come to that conclusion so rapidly wants to hear all the arguments before concluding.
Just my thoughts. I like to give everyone fair hearing!!
Boris has been hugely diminished by this. If he had a principled position, like Gove he would have declared it by now. His opportunism and calculation are just so obvious it's almost embarrassing, though not in any way surprising.
He's pushed back his declaration to 10pm tomorrow evening now, if the Sunday Times is to be believed.
That sounds like he'll be spilling the beans in his Torygraph column. I wonder if they are paying him a bonus for the exclusive.
If it's announced in his column then that could make sense and would excuse a delay. Though that would imply a Leave vote to me, the Torygraph wouldn't pay a bonus for a Remain column I suspect.
Career-wise - and that Boris's only interest here - Leave is his best shot at becoming PM, so I imagine that's where he'll end up. But the delay looks so bad. If Gove could make a principled decision as soon as he was able, why couldn't Boris? He will be targeted by Cameron, Osborne, May and others in a way the other, conviction-led Tory outers won't be; especially if there has been any kind of negotiating.
If GO shat the bed last night, Boris has for sure missed the boat today.
They are now reporting he may not even decide until Monday.
He's got a Telegraph column on Monday, I wonder if he'll announce his decision there?
Politically, Boris simply cannot afford to wait that long.
Every hour he delays, his credibility goes down.
He should have declared last night with Gove.
That might go down as a major historical might-have-been.
Boris is a wordsmith, Gove has set the bar high today with his statement, I think Boris is trying to oneup him
He'd better get typing.
I knew someone who worked at the Spectator/Telegraph, he was always legendary for being late/doing it last minute with his copy, but on the flip side, it never needed any work by the sub editors
Boris has been hugely diminished by this. If he had a principled position, like Gove he would have declared it by now. His opportunism and calculation are just so obvious it's almost embarrassing, though not in any way surprising.
He's pushed back his declaration to 10pm tomorrow evening now, if the Sunday Times is to be believed.
That sounds like he'll be spilling the beans in his Torygraph column. I wonder if they are paying him a bonus for the exclusive.
If it's announced in his column then that could make sense and would excuse a delay. Though that would imply a Leave vote to me, the Torygraph wouldn't pay a bonus for a Remain column I suspect.
Career-wise - and that Boris's only interest here - Leave is his best shot at becoming PM, so I imagine that's where he'll end up. But the delay looks so bad. If Gove could make a principled decision as soon as he was able, why couldn't Boris? He will be targeted by Cameron, Osborne, May and others in a way the other, conviction-led Tory outers won't be; especially if there has been any kind of negotiating.
If GO shat the bed last night, Boris has for sure missed the boat today.
They are now reporting he may not even decide until Monday.
He's got a Telegraph column on Monday, I wonder if he'll announce his decision there?
Politically, Boris simply cannot afford to wait that long.
Every hour he delays, his credibility goes down.
He should have declared last night with Gove.
That might go down as a major historical might-have-been.
Boris is a wordsmith, Gove has set the bar high today with his statement, I think Boris is trying to oneup him
He'd better get typing.
I knew someone who worked at the Spectator/Telegraph, he was always legendary for being late/doing it last minute with his copy, but on the flip side, it never needed any work by the sub editors
He's airing himself as a future PM now. Ain't about being a journalist anymore.
Boris has been hugely diminished by this. If he had a principled position, like Gove he would have declared it by now. His opportunism and calculation are just so obvious it's almost embarrassing, though not in any way surprising.
He's pushed back his declaration to 10pm tomorrow evening now, if the Sunday Times is to be believed.
That sounds like he'll be spilling the beans in his Torygraph column. I wonder if they are paying him a bonus for the exclusive.
If it's announced in his column then that could make sense and would excuse a delay. Though that would imply a Leave vote to me, the Torygraph wouldn't pay a bonus for a Remain column I suspect.
Career-wise - and that Boris's only interest here - Leave is his best shot at becoming PM, so I imagine that's where he'll end up. But the delay looks so bad. If Gove could make a principled decision as soon as he was able, why couldn't Boris? He will be targeted by Cameron, Osborne, May and others in a way the other, conviction-led Tory outers won't be; especially if there has been any kind of negotiating.
May is a definite lay.
(applies own mindbleach)
Nah, she might still get it.
She might be the Not Osborne candidate, she has no enemies in the parliamentary party.
She's held a job that had become a political graveyard. The Tories want to radiate security and competence against Corbyn in 2020.
They seem pretty convinced it's a done deal with Boris and he's joining the Outers. If as we all think his principles extend as far as his leadership ambitions this seems like a rather foolish move.
Not so. If Boris backs LEAVE he gets a high profile, something he has lacked since returning to parliament. If LEAVE wins he becomes PM within weeks. If REMAIN wins Tory activists will make him leader in preference to Osborne as an act of revenge on the REMAINers. If Boris backs REMAIN he becomes a great big disappoinment, his profile diminishes and his leadership prospects crash.
They seem pretty convinced it's a done deal with Boris and he's joining the Outers. If as we all think his principles extend as far as his leadership ambitions this seems like a rather foolish move.
No, it makes sense. If Leave wins Boris is a shoe-in to replace Dave sometime this year. If it loses, the Tories will still want an Outer as their next leader. The problem Boris has created for himself is the obvious calculation and clear lack of principle - in contrast to Gove, for example.
They seem pretty convinced it's a done deal with Boris and he's joining the Outers. If as we all think his principles extend as far as his leadership ambitions this seems like a rather foolish move.
Not so. If Boris backs LEAVE he gets a high profile, something he has lacked since returning to parliament. If LEAVE wins he becomes PM within weeks. If REMAIN wins Tory activists will make him leader in preference to Osborne as an act of revenge on the REMAINers. If Boris backs REMAIN he becomes a great big disappoinment, his profile diminishes and his leadership prospects crash.
This is based on the assumption that the Tory membership is still majority Eurosceptic, or Eurosceptic enough for this to be a defining issue.
I'm back, and I see the first leaks from the S.C Exit poll:
daveweigel @daveweigel 55m55 minutes ago daveweigel Retweeted Shushannah Walshe In early SC exit poll, 3/4 of GOP voters favor a temporary ban on Muslims entering the country.
Boris has been hugely diminished by this. If he had a principled position, like Gove he would have declared it by now. His opportunism and calculation are just so obvious it's almost embarrassing, though not in any way surprising.
He's pushed back his declaration to 10pm tomorrow evening now, if the Sunday Times is to be believed.
That sounds like he'll be spilling the beans in his Torygraph column. I wonder if they are paying him a bonus for the exclusive.
If it's announced in his column then that could make sense and would excuse a delay. Though that would imply a Leave vote to me, the Torygraph wouldn't pay a bonus for a Remain column I suspect.
Career-wise - and that Boris's only interest here - Leave is his best shot at becoming PM, so I imagine that's where he'll end up. But the delay looks so bad. If Gove could make a principled decision as soon as he was able, why couldn't Boris? He will be targeted by Cameron, Osborne, May and others in a way the other, conviction-led Tory outers won't be; especially if there has been any kind of negotiating.
May is a definite lay.
(applies own mindbleach)
Nah, she might still get it.
She might be the Not Osborne candidate, she has no enemies in the parliamentary party.
She's held a job that had become a political graveyard. The Tories want to radiate security and competence against Corbyn in 2020.
She fits the bill.
No No No ... No.
NO.
No. No. No. No. No.
A thousand times No.
NO!
May has shot her bolt. Totally. The non-Osborne candidate will not be a welching Leaver. She has a very small base in the parliamentary party. She will not get anything from the 110+ MPs who'll vote Leave, and there'll be slim pickings among the Remainers who don't go for Osborne.
She'll get knocked out in the 1st or 2nd round of voting.
I say that as someone who's been backing her very heavily for months.
I'm back, and I see the first leaks from the S.C Exit poll:
daveweigel @daveweigel 55m55 minutes ago daveweigel Retweeted Shushannah Walshe In early SC exit poll, 3/4 of GOP voters favor a temporary ban on Muslims entering the country.
That policy has gone down a storm with the Grand Old Party. It's like Lynton and the Scots.
They seem pretty convinced it's a done deal with Boris and he's joining the Outers. If as we all think his principles extend as far as his leadership ambitions this seems like a rather foolish move.
No, it makes sense. If Leave wins Boris is a shoe-in to replace Dave sometime this year. If it loses, the Tories will still want an Outer as their next leader. The problem Boris has created for himself is the obvious calculation and clear lack of principle - in contrast to Gove, for example.
They seem pretty convinced it's a done deal with Boris and he's joining the Outers. If as we all think his principles extend as far as his leadership ambitions this seems like a rather foolish move.
Not so. If Boris backs LEAVE he gets a high profile, something he has lacked since returning to parliament. If LEAVE wins he becomes PM within weeks. If REMAIN wins Tory activists will make him leader in preference to Osborne as an act of revenge on the REMAINers. If Boris backs REMAIN he becomes a great big disappoinment, his profile diminishes and his leadership prospects crash.
Spot on. But his lack of principle has been thoroughly exposed. He's sat on the fence and calculated what works best for him, as others have declared on the basis of sincerely-held belief.
That's nonsense. Gove's communique was respectful and polite. He pointed out the obvious, though in prose that will always be beyond my feeble powers.
Given that Remain are going to win, Gove is (again, obviously) putting country before party and career. Whichever side you're on you have to respect that. Boris on the other hand....*shakes head*
I'm back, and I see the first leaks from the S.C Exit poll:
daveweigel @daveweigel 55m55 minutes ago daveweigel Retweeted Shushannah Walshe In early SC exit poll, 3/4 of GOP voters favor a temporary ban on Muslims entering the country.
That policy has gone down a storm with the Grand Old Party. It's like Lynton and the Scots.
Sir Lynton and the SNP.
The Tories are Pro Scotland and the Tory campaign was anti SNP, not anti Scotland.
They seem pretty convinced it's a done deal with Boris and he's joining the Outers. If as we all think his principles extend as far as his leadership ambitions this seems like a rather foolish move.
No, it makes sense. If Leave wins Boris is a shoe-in to replace Dave sometime this year. If it loses, the Tories will still want an Outer as their next leader. The problem Boris has created for himself is the obvious calculation and clear lack of principle - in contrast to Gove, for example.
From a betting perspective, Boris must be a 75% chance to replace Dave if he effectively leads Leave and Leave wins.
I assume Dave has 80% of resigning if Leave win.
Leave only has a 30% chance of winning.
So back Boris at anything above 9/2 for Tory leader if he does declare?
They seem pretty convinced it's a done deal with Boris and he's joining the Outers. If as we all think his principles extend as far as his leadership ambitions this seems like a rather foolish move.
No, it makes sense. If Leave wins Boris is a shoe-in to replace Dave sometime this year. If it loses, the Tories will still want an Outer as their next leader. The problem Boris has created for himself is the obvious calculation and clear lack of principle - in contrast to Gove, for example.
Comments
There is no such thing as an issue closing down for good. There just isn't.
What it will do is massively raise the threshold and require a serious and overwhelming case for a third, probably at a distant point in the future but no means certainly.
Cannot imagine any scenario where the FT would recommend Leave, so I doubt it makes much difference.
What does that mean? You already have a HUGE position on Trump?
And a very very good book, I might add.
If Gove were to come out and say "Cameron is a liar" then he should be sacked but as long as it is respectful then it is a free vote.
That's exactly what I posted last night except I said 2022.
Yep the EU could recommend a cull of everyone in the square mile and the FT would still support it
Edit: Just trying to mix up the historical references.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DQsG3TKQ0I
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/mp-khalid-mahmood-campaigns-convince-10392837#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Tories (on all sides) are very impressed with him over the last 36 hours.
Yes, he's not exactly The Sex, but he'd be up against Corbyn.
Gove beats Corbyn.
"Would you mind finishing this report/project for me, I can't be arsed, which reminds me, we've got to schedule your annual appraisal soon"
I usually get told to get stuffed.
I honestly think if GO get chosen to be the official Leave campaign that will add about 5% to the Remain vote.
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
We believe the PM is wrong and EU m'ship makes us less safe. UK is shackled to supranational EU defence policy. We have a historic choice.
If you're going to talk about Grassroots Out, please call them Grassroots Out, not GO.
When people type GO, I read it as George Osborne, and I really don't want images of George shitting the bed thank you.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/578322915768299520
Every hour he delays, his credibility goes down.
He should have declared last night with Gove.
That might go down as a major historical might-have-been.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/625413698652405761?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
I still very much wish that the REMAIN option was a bit more pro-EU than it is... Even the very word "remain" is a grudging kind of word... But, hey, we are where we are and people like myself have just got to stop moaning, deal with the fact that closer integration is off the menu and do our best with the cards that have been dealt. So I've just made my first small donation to Britain Stronger in Europe.
Just my thoughts. I like to give everyone fair hearing!!
Cruz 28
(BF)
(applies own mindbleach)
No Tory MP who declares s/he will vote IN is winning the leadership election, no matter how able. #Brexit https://twitter.com/KeechA13/status/701180770078089216 …
Our louise very feisty tonight.
He needs to smarten up his act pronto.
She might be the Not Osborne candidate, she has no enemies in the parliamentary party.
She's held a job that had become a political graveyard. The Tories want to radiate security and competence against Corbyn in 2020.
She fits the bill.
BTW given that my mum and dad were already resident in blighty before I was born, chances are high that I was conceived here
I feel a blogpost coming on.
As someone posted on PB years ago, it doesn't matter where you were born, or what your passport stays. Being British/English is a state of mind.
I can't think of anything more British than train spotting.
daveweigel @daveweigel 55m55 minutes ago
daveweigel Retweeted Shushannah Walshe
In early SC exit poll, 3/4 of GOP voters favor a temporary ban on Muslims entering the country.
NO.
No. No. No. No. No.
A thousand times No.
NO!
May has shot her bolt. Totally. The non-Osborne candidate will not be a welching Leaver. She has a very small base in the parliamentary party. She will not get anything from the 110+ MPs who'll vote Leave, and there'll be slim pickings among the Remainers who don't go for Osborne.
She'll get knocked out in the 1st or 2nd round of voting.
I say that as someone who's been backing her very heavily for months.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/701179712303972352
How does he know.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/701071095059849216
Given that Remain are going to win, Gove is (again, obviously) putting country before party and career. Whichever side you're on you have to respect that. Boris on the other hand....*shakes head*
Hillary/Sanders -£750
Rubio £3.4k
Trump £8.6k
Bloomberg £11.3k
Everyone else £6k+ (Ryan & Romney +£silly)
GOP
Cruz +£4.3k
Everyone else +-£0
The Tories are Pro Scotland and the Tory campaign was anti SNP, not anti Scotland.
I assume Dave has 80% of resigning if Leave win.
Leave only has a 30% chance of winning.
So back Boris at anything above 9/2 for Tory leader if he does declare?
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37077219
Very Conservative 40
Somewhat Conservative 42
Moderate 17
Liberal 1
Bad numbers for Trump.
Who ran the most unfair campaign
Trump 41
Cruz 33
Rubio 7
Bush 7
Kasich 3
Bad news for Trump and Cruz.
Important issues
Terrorism 32
Economy 28
Government Spending 27
Immigration 10
Bad news for Trump
Experience 48
Outsider 46
Bad news for Trump.
Do religious beliefs matter for your candidate
A great deal 45
Somewhat 32
Not much 11
Not at all 11
Bad news for Trump.
Most egotistical "journalist" in the country. I can't stand him.
Cruz 31
Trump 27
Rubio 25
Best candidate to handle the Supreme Court nomination
Cruz 30
Trump 26
Rubio 21
It looks like Cruz and Rubio are going to win S.C. , Google Trends was correct.