That's a brave call from Peston! Hope it turns out to be true.
@rcs1000 The following article date of the start of the collapse of the Euro as 2016.202 isn't the 20th August as you've stated but the 13th / 14th March (0.202 x 366 is around 74 days into 2016):
They seem pretty convinced it's a done deal with Boris and he's joining the Outers. If as we all think his principles extend as far as his leadership ambitions this seems like a rather foolish move.
Not so. If Boris backs LEAVE he gets a high profile, something he has lacked since returning to parliament. If LEAVE wins he becomes PM within weeks. If REMAIN wins Tory activists will make him leader in preference to Osborne as an act of revenge on the REMAINers. If Boris backs REMAIN he becomes a great big disappoinment, his profile diminishes and his leadership prospects crash.
Spot on. But his lack of principle has been thoroughly exposed. He's sat on the fence and calculated what works best for him, as others have declared on the basis of sincerely-held belief.
That's true, but what can you do? Gove is a better man but he has said he does not want to be leader and I believe him.
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convinced
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
Who's the third? Must be Max.
BTW given that my mum and dad were already resident in blighty before I was born, chances are high that I was conceived here
Yes Max.
As someone posted on PB years ago, it doesn't matter where you were born, or what your passport stays. Being British/English is a state of mind.
I can't think of anything more British than train spotting.
I think that might have been me. Certainly I have said in the past that some of the most English people I have ever met are neither white nor born in this country.
Very Conservative 40 Somewhat Conservative 42 Moderate 17 Liberal 1
Bad numbers for Trump.
Who ran the most unfair campaign
Trump 41 Cruz 33 Rubio 7 Bush 7 Kasich 3
Bad news for Trump and Cruz.
Important issues
Terrorism 32 Economy 28 Government Spending 27 Immigration 10
Bad news for Trump
Experience 48 Outsider 46
Bad news for Trump.
Do religious beliefs matter for your candidate
A great deal 45 Somewhat 32 Not much 11 Not at all 11
Bad news for Trump.
Scheisse.
The polls haven't closed, but based on the part of the exit polls that have been published Trump has lost.
If seems Trump wins only on days that Sanders wins.
No real evidence for that at all, voters are saying they want a ban on Muslims entering the country and terrorism is the most important issue and you are already saying Trump has lost before polls have even closed, CALM DOWN!!!!
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convinced
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
There are more than three ethnic minority voters here.
Murali has a Sri Lankan Tamil background for instance, have a feeling he is in the "In" camp.
And Ms Apocalypse.
My bad
For all the accusations of a PB "hive mind", there's quite a lot of diversity here. The age and education and economic demographics are rather disproportionate compared to the UK as a whole, and the party preferences are a bit out of whack, but it's not homogeneous.
Tim Alberta @TimAlberta 1h1 hour ago CNN says South Carolina exit polls show 73% of GOP voters self-identified evangelicals. Up from 65% in 2012. Wow.
Evan Siegfried @evansiegfried 30m30 minutes ago Exit polls showing Rubio being the candidate of choice of late deciders in South Carolina. #SCPrimary #SCforMarco
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convinced
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
Who's the third? Must be Max.
BTW given that my mum and dad were already resident in blighty before I was born, chances are high that I was conceived here
Yes Max.
As someone posted on PB years ago, it doesn't matter where you were born, or what your passport stays. Being British/English is a state of mind.
I can't think of anything more British than train spotting.
I think that might have been me. Certainly I have said in the past that some of the most English people I have ever met are neither white nor born in this country.
I thought it was you, but didn't want to misquote you.
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convinced
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
There are more than three ethnic minority voters here.
Murali has a Sri Lankan Tamil background for instance, have a feeling he is in the "In" camp.
And Ms Apocalypse.
My bad
For all the accusations of a PB "hive mind", there's quite a lot of diversity here. The age and education and economic demographics are rather disproportionate compared to the UK as a whole, and the party preferences are a bit out of whack, but it's not homogeneous.
I'd agree with that. The poster I most identify with is Southam Observer - which may very well upset him, given he's Labour and I am so very not.
In any case if Cruz were to win with Rubio third that confirms it is a Trump v Cruz battle and effectively kills off Rubio
But it would look something like Cruz 26, Trump 24, Rubio 20, Bush 10, Kasich 10, Carson 10 Rubio could wait for Bush to drop out and stake his claim on the non-psycho path
In any case if Cruz were to win with Rubio third that confirms it is a Trump v Cruz battle and effectively kills off Rubio
But it would look something like Cruz 26, Trump 24, Rubio 20, Bush 10, Kasich 10, Carson 10 Rubio could wait for Bush to drop out and stake his claim on the non-psycho path
Thats Marco "ban abortion even for rape victims" Rubio??
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convinced
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
Who's the third? Must be Max.
BTW given that my mum and dad were already resident in blighty before I was born, chances are high that I was conceived here
Yes Max.
As someone posted on PB years ago, it doesn't matter where you were born, or what your passport stays. Being British/English is a state of mind.
I can't think of anything more British than train spotting.
Sunil's newly-added routes for 2016 (carrying on the 2015 campaign!):
Feb 19th - Chester to Liverpool James Street via Birkenhead, AND Liverpool Lime Street to James Street (clockwise) Feb 12th - Alderley Edge to Cheadle Hulme, AND Manchester Piccadilly to Ashton-under-Lyne (Metrolink) Feb 5th - Nottingham Station to Hucknall (NET trams) Jan 24th - Manningtree to Harwich Town Jan 17th - Ashford to Eastbourne via Hastings Jan 11th - Overton (Hants.) to Salisbury Jan 8th - Kidsgrove to Manchester Piccadilly via Macclesfield
I'm not quite sure what he expected Cameron to do. A better deal might have led to less Outers, but it would still have been a very large number regardless of what he brought back. So it's not that Cameron called the split wrongly, it's just that he's not minimized the split as much as he had hoped he could, and that makes staying on indefinitely even if he wins not an option. Which Cameron probably already knew, hence why despite some people thinking him staying on in 2020 would have been a good idea, he ruled it out ages ago and hasn't changed his mind.
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convinced
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
Who's the third? Must be Max.
BTW given that my mum and dad were already resident in blighty before I was born, chances are high that I was conceived here
Yes Max.
As someone posted on PB years ago, it doesn't matter where you were born, or what your passport stays. Being British/English is a state of mind.
I can't think of anything more British than train spotting.
I think that might have been me. Certainly I have said in the past that some of the most English people I have ever met are neither white nor born in this country.
I thought it was you, but didn't want to misquote you.
I stand by it very strongly.
As an example even after the number of years a lot of us have interacted on here and the many many tens of thousands of words we have exchanged would defy anyone to say who was and wasn't non British or non white if they hadn't made it overtly clear either by telling people or, in Sunil's and Murali's case making it clear through their names.
Considering he's already announced he's retiring this Parliament that's not exactly "news".
Until some weeks ago,I wouldn't have posted this sh!t,I respected cameron,now I can't stand the man,he just turned out to be a Europhile liar who has kept up the bull for the last 40 years.
In any case if Cruz were to win with Rubio third that confirms it is a Trump v Cruz battle and effectively kills off Rubio
But it would look something like Cruz 26, Trump 24, Rubio 20, Bush 10, Kasich 10, Carson 10 Rubio could wait for Bush to drop out and stake his claim on the non-psycho path
Thats Marco "ban abortion even for rape victims" Rubio??
Correct Marco "Tea Party" Rubio is now the mainstream of the US Republican Party This is why despite Democrat despair in the last two years, they were always slight favourites
The polls haven't closed, but based on the part of the exit polls that have been published Trump has lost.
If seems Trump wins only on days that Sanders wins.
So the grand ride for both of them may be coming to an end soon, at least as genuine contenders? Despite already tiring of the campaign, that almost makes me a little sad.
In any case if Cruz were to win with Rubio third that confirms it is a Trump v Cruz battle and effectively kills off Rubio
But it would look something like Cruz 26, Trump 24, Rubio 20, Bush 10, Kasich 10, Carson 10 Rubio could wait for Bush to drop out and stake his claim on the non-psycho path
Osborne will have no choice but to go after Boris now. That could be interesting.
All Tories need to play the ball not the man.
All their actions show that George and Boris are interested in one thing only - being the next PM. As they have shown, they'll do whatever they believe is necessary to achieve that.
Very good news for Con chances of winning GE 2020.
This should guarantee that someone like Fox can't win the leadership.
Choosing Fox would be like the Tories saying we want to give Corbyn a fair chance of winning.
Indeed.
You need 33.4% of the MPs' votes to get into the Final 2.
If Boris backs Remain then almost everyone on the Out side is voter unfriendly - yet if MPs vote on "EU lines" there would be a very good chance of one of them making the Final 2. That person may very well win as per IDS.
But with Boris on the Out side he mops up a large amount of the Out MPs which then means nobody else on the Out side has any chance of making the Final 2.
Con odds of winning GE 2020 have just increased very substantially.
Very good news for Con chances of winning GE 2020.
This should guarantee that someone like Fox can't win the leadership.
Choosing Fox would be like the Tories saying we want to give Corbyn a fair chance of winning.
Indeed.
You need 33.4% of the MPs' votes to get into the Final 2.
If Boris backs Remain then almost everyone on the Out side is voter unfriendly - yet if MPs vote on "EU lines" there would be a very good chance of one of them making the Final 2. That person may very well win as per IDS.
But with Boris on the Out side he mops up a large amount of the Out MPs which then means nobody else on the Out side has any chance of making the Final 2.
Con odds of winning GE 2020 have just increased very substantially.
Although I don't rate Brois very highly, he is 9:1 the best Con leadership candidate on the "out" side. As I've said before that won't swing the member/public vote, but may help him in the MPs' ballot.
What do we know about Conservative MPs and their attitude toward Boris? Will he make the final two even as an Outer? I always think of the sceptics as roundheads and maybe they are too grave of countenance to countenance him as leader; I assume they are happy to take principle over popularity
Trump has probably lost, but we don't know who won.
Knowing my luck, he'll have narrowly won, but with both Rubio/Cruz snapping at his heels guaranteeing I fail to win on primary market and have big exposure on nominee market too!
Trump has probably lost, but we don't know who won.
Knowing my luck, he'll have narrowly won, but with both Rubio/Cruz snapping at his heels guaranteeing I fail to win on primary market and have big exposure on nominee market too!
Is there a God?
Pulps and I got smashed by a third place performance in Iowa that was somehow a victory. Lightening as they say...
What do we know about Conservative MPs and their attitude toward Boris? Will he make the final two even as an Outer? I always think of the sceptics as roundheads and maybe they are too grave of countenance to countenance him as leader; I assume they are happy to take principle over popularity
Corbyn being Labour leader gives them much freer rein as they know there is literally no-one who could lose to him. Why go for a conviction-free opportunist like Boris when you could ensure a principled Tory is the next PM?
Anyone would bave thought that this is conservative v conservative but it is much wider involving all political parties, business, trade unions and others and the narrative will quite quickly move onto including all these groups. If Boris goes for leave I cannot imagine the City will be impressed
How can Trump be losing on those numbers? Trump must have won.
True all the other things, the values, the religion, the late deciders all points to a Trump loss. The topline figures look like Trump will sneak a win, but a 29-26 margin is too close.
Comments
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/701084443889381377
Murali has a Sri Lankan Tamil background for instance, have a feeling he is in the "In" camp.
And Ms Apocalypse.
@rcs1000 The following article date of the start of the collapse of the Euro as 2016.202 isn't the 20th August as you've stated but the 13th / 14th March (0.202 x 366 is around 74 days into 2016):
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/euro/is-the-pending-euro-collapse-on-target-from-our-2011-forecast-of-2016-202/
I think Armstrong has stated that the final collapse and breakup of the Euro should be in the 2018 / 2019 timeframe - we shall see on that one.
If seems Trump wins only on days that Sanders wins.
The Prime Minister wasn’t the only one to call the split in his party wrongly but he will be its first casualty
John Rentoul @johnrentoul
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/david-cameron-is-finished-whatever-happens-in-the-eu-referendum-a6886361.html
The super blairite?
He says that Cameron is finished?
Fancy a bet on trump's winning margin?
Rubio 20
Cruz 24
I've bought £10 of Cruz at 24
Among respondents aware of the renegotiation, voting intention n=646 tighter Leave 35% (+2) Remain 43% (-5) and more undecided – 22% (+3).
CNN says South Carolina exit polls show 73% of GOP voters self-identified evangelicals. Up from 65% in 2012. Wow.
Evan Siegfried @evansiegfried 30m30 minutes ago
Exit polls showing Rubio being the candidate of choice of late deciders in South Carolina. #SCPrimary #SCforMarco
More evidence pointing to a Trump loss.
Angry with government
Trump 38
Cruz 28
Rubio 18
Carson 8
The only part that looks remotely like the opinion polls.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/701179712303972352
Rubio could wait for Bush to drop out and stake his claim on the non-psycho path
This should guarantee that someone like Fox can't win the leadership.
Late deciders
Rubio 30
Cruz 28
Trump 16
Kasich 11
They could be around 40-45%.
Feb 19th - Chester to Liverpool James Street via Birkenhead, AND Liverpool Lime Street to James Street (clockwise)
Feb 12th - Alderley Edge to Cheadle Hulme, AND Manchester Piccadilly to Ashton-under-Lyne (Metrolink)
Feb 5th - Nottingham Station to Hucknall (NET trams)
Jan 24th - Manningtree to Harwich Town
Jan 17th - Ashford to Eastbourne via Hastings
Jan 11th - Overton (Hants.) to Salisbury
Jan 8th - Kidsgrove to Manchester Piccadilly via Macclesfield
If true.
As an example even after the number of years a lot of us have interacted on here and the many many tens of thousands of words we have exchanged would defy anyone to say who was and wasn't non British or non white if they hadn't made it overtly clear either by telling people or, in Sunil's and Murali's case making it clear through their names.
Good riddance when the time come's.
Looks bad for Trump.
I advise you to cover up.
Marco "Tea Party" Rubio is now the mainstream of the US Republican Party
This is why despite Democrat despair in the last two years, they were always slight favourites
Trump has led the polls in SC consistently.
Trump 38
Cruz 28
Rubio 18
So Trump at least got 15%.
You need 33.4% of the MPs' votes to get into the Final 2.
If Boris backs Remain then almost everyone on the Out side is voter unfriendly - yet if MPs vote on "EU lines" there would be a very good chance of one of them making the Final 2. That person may very well win as per IDS.
But with Boris on the Out side he mops up a large amount of the Out MPs which then means nobody else on the Out side has any chance of making the Final 2.
Con odds of winning GE 2020 have just increased very substantially.
I've ditched £100 of liability on Trump on Republican nominee.
I've backed Marco with an extra £30 on Next President, so £350 up there.
I will "cash out" in an emergency for a £50 loss, rather than carry a £400 liability on Marco on nominee.
Rubio 30
Cruz 28
Trump 16
Trump has probably lost, but we don't know who won.
Is there a God?
I've covered Cruz since he's at 23/1.
The news is just bad for Trump from start to finish with the exit polls.
Here he loses them by 14%.
Here he wins it by 10?
Shares my values 38
Bring Change 29
Tells it like it is 16
Can win in November 15
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbsfL9bWEAAcs-v.jpg
You can get evens W/O Trump compared to 1.75 for Rubio, should be the other way round.
Men
Trump 34
Cruz 24
Rubio 23
Kasich 6
Carson 6
Bush 6
Women
Cruz 27
Trump 26
Rubio 25
Kasich 9
Carson 7
Bush 7
As you say £154 available to back Cruz at 20.0.
Nate Silver has both Cruz and Trump at 11% chance to win SC.
The topline figures look like Trump will sneak a win, but a 29-26 margin is too close.
1 . Trump 34
2. Cruz 26
3. Rubio 18
It's too close.