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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post EU deal referendum poll has REMAIN with 15% lead

There is no recent Survation EU phone polling to compare it to so it is hard to judge the impact. We do know that phone polls have been showing much bigger leads for IN than online ones.
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Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.
We could see another referendum within five years?
Or am I talking bollocks?
Conor Burns MP declares for #Brexit. Conor was Margaret Thatcher's very close friend. #VoteLeave https://twitter.com/conorburns_mp/status/700974684595163136 …
REMAIN = Traitor Pig-Dogs!
Cameron declares war on rebels
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1
That is where the FO will try to take us next, if they win. Rely on it
Cant see Trump not winning SC.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701166442515972096
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701167068171923456
The biggest loophole is that the deal hasn't amended the treaties. I'd expect a government that was faced with the ECJ striking down the agreement as incompatible with the governing treaties (if it does), to first push for a full treaty revision before going nuclear.
That would require a major economic meltdown and migration crisis on top, probably.
I'd say within 10 years, not 5 years. I certainly don't think you could call "a generation".
LEAVE = The Rebels
then:
REMAIN = The Galactic Empire
From which we can confidently conclude that Cameron has NOT ignited any civil war. Any media spouting usually means the opposite.
Remarkably the PM has pointed out a home truth. Joining the EEA as an alternative to the EU and remaining in the single market will also entail free movement of workers.
I won't waste my breath pointing out Norway again.
I think Dave will say, offer or do virtually anything to stop him declaring for Leave.
It will be interesting to see how well both try to sidestep the implied attacks without seeming to criticise each other
How on earth can you call the next hundred years?
https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/701165931800748033
Remain = Remainders
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/20/politics/south-carolina-nevada-live-updates/index.html
I underestimated @LouiseMensch. She really has put her beliefs before loyalty to Cameron. I apologise to her https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/701168376576614400 …
Louise Mensch ✔ @LouiseMensch
"Hey @david_cameron your bullshit "deal" is only temporary" says @JunckerEU helpfully (after one day) #Brexit https://twitter.com/Mina_Andreeva/status/700821002679357440 …
Louise Mensch ✔ @LouiseMensch
Hashtag #Refugees Hashtag #UKinEU no thanks to rapist males of fighting age bussed in from safe Turkey #Brexit https://twitter.com/EP_President/status/700365620391624705 …
Currently 52.2 - 47.7 ahead with 67.4% in
Most of the remaining from Clark county so would expect the gap to widen at the end.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/nv/Dem
Plus it keeps Boris out of the country a lot making leadership plotting much more difficult.
Plus it would be a bit hilarious having Boris as our representative to the world.
The latter meaning, presumably, cybernetics doing everything? (which might lead to the extinction?)
It also featured Prince Harry as a badass veteran SAS commando, meeting his young grandparents. It wasn't very good though.
When reports broke that Michael Gove, one of his closest friends in politics, would back Brexit, Cameron dismissed the news as “not a surprise”. But he now admits he was hurt by the move.
“Obviously I am sad about it because he is a close friend and a very close colleague,” he said, before adding that Gove “will remain both of those things”.
Asked if it might affect their friendship, he said: “I very much hope not.”
Cameron also vowed not to axe ministers who have defied him in his next reshuffle. “My thoughts are nowhere near reshuffles. What I can say is that no one will be at any disadvantage by choosing to campaign in a particular way,” he said.
“I want as many ministers and MPs to support the cause that I think is right but people have thought about these things very carefully and we are all going to respect each other and the choices we make, and no one will suffer disadvantage for a decision to go one way or the other way.”
This is possibly the best-written Out piece I have ever read. It is articles like this and Hannan that make me seriously think twice about how I'm going to vote.
Now, would he do it by accident is a fair(er) question, even if one thinks the answer is a resounding no.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37077219
Survation phone poll for MoS carried out today
REMAIN 48%
LEAVE 33%
DK 19%
1) Remain wins
2) the FrancoGerman-desired treaty change in 2017/8/whatever does not trigger the 2011 act
3) Cameron remains PM until 2019
Under these circs, no referendum 2 before 2020...but that's election year, so no.
Afterwards? You'd need somebody - Corbyn, Cameron's successor to invent a case for a referendum and get it thru the House. Possible, but you'd need another year, so that takes us up to mid 2021.
So it's *possible* to have a referendum 2 within 5 years, but it'd be tight.
Of course, if any of the assumptions are wrong, results will differ: DYOR
In da panic, dey tryta pull da plug.
Now, that might not be a good idea as far as party unity goes, and in fact the opposite was stated to be the plan in the past few weeks - that is, Eurosceptics would be promoted, or at least retained - but I don't see why it would be a betrayal by Cameron either.
35% of those polled by Survation for today's MoS #EYRef phone survey say they think Cameron did well. 30% say badly
Maybe the same. Maybe not. Dunno.
Think How Mourinho and Guardiola are destabilising United and City and it gives some idea of the shambles that'll be going on in government