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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post EU deal referendum poll has REMAIN with 15% lead

SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited February 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post EU deal referendum poll has REMAIN with 15% lead

There is no recent Survation EU phone polling to compare it to so it is hard to judge the impact. We do know that phone polls have been showing much bigger leads for IN than online ones.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    Great news for Dave
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    edited February 2016
    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,300
    Must be an outlier - the "deal" was worse than that between Darth Vader and Lando in The Empire Strikes Back!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Great news for Dave

    Says a traitorous pigdog boooer!!!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Louise Mensch ✔ @LouiseMensch
    Conor Burns MP declares for #Brexit. Conor was Margaret Thatcher's very close friend. #VoteLeave https://twitter.com/conorburns_mp/status/700974684595163136 …
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    Pretty certain it will settle it for 15 years. Ultimately Europe will face some amjor challenges, whether we are in the EU or not. "A generation" maybe not.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,300
    SquareRoot said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Great news for Dave

    Says a traitorous pigdog boooer!!!
    LEAVE = British and proud!
    REMAIN = Traitor Pig-Dogs!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    Wonder is poll will help Boris to stop getting a splintered arse on that fence?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Sunday Times front page:
    Cameron declares war on rebels

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    Times says no10 lobbying Boris...if they are briefing I presume like the eu deal it is in the bag already.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    will there be anything out of SC until midnight?
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro

    That is where the FO will try to take us next, if they win. Rely on it
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    It would settle the matter for a generation, albeit an Alex Salmond 'generation' of indeterminate duration. However, 5 years is too short IMHO.
  • YossariansChildYossariansChild Posts: 536
    Fox calls NV for Clinton.

    Cant see Trump not winning SC.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Must be an outlier - the "deal" was worse than that between Darth Vader and Lando in The Empire Strikes Back!

    Just wait until Tusk starts altering the terms of the agreement...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    runnymede said:

    unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro

    That is where the FO will try to take us next, if they win. Rely on it

    Personally I cannot see Remain winning by more than 52%-48% and with 80% opposed to the Euro there is no chance we join that. For example I would join the No campaign if this was a referendum on the Euro but I am prepared to back the Remain campaign when the issue is membership of the EU as a whole
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    For those predicting the Tories splitting etc

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701166442515972096

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701167068171923456
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump at 1.06 on BF.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.

    Do you have a link?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For those predicting the Tories splitting etc

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701166442515972096

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701167068171923456

    Yep,until cameron goes after them .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Osborne is looking like a big big winner from all this. Does Boris attach himself to a losing cause, or does he do for his leadership hopes like May ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    Tykejohnno said:

    Sunday Times front page:
    Cameron declares war on rebels

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1

    A curious headline - surely they've declared war on him by rebelling in the first place? I know it's all polite and 'he fought as hard as he could' at the moment, but though justified in sticking to principle, that's still them openly declaring he got a crap deal and is telling us it is good. Is there more in the actual text to support that interpretation in the headline?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,357
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    Not within five years - too tight a timescale for (1) the EU to renege, (2) a government to not just kick up stink but to schedule a new vote and (3) for that vote to happen. Court cases and the like take years to decide. It'd also depend where the U-turn was.

    The biggest loophole is that the deal hasn't amended the treaties. I'd expect a government that was faced with the ECJ striking down the agreement as incompatible with the governing treaties (if it does), to first push for a full treaty revision before going nuclear.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.

    Do you have a link?
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3456429/Gove-Boris-EXPOSED-secret-EU-plot-Pair-snapped-Johnson-home-eve-Cabinet-rebel-s-exit.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,856
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    Another referendum will be held if the fundamentals change, and there is a clamour for one.

    That would require a major economic meltdown and migration crisis on top, probably.

    I'd say within 10 years, not 5 years. I certainly don't think you could call "a generation".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.

    Do you have a link?
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3456429/Gove-Boris-EXPOSED-secret-EU-plot-Pair-snapped-Johnson-home-eve-Cabinet-rebel-s-exit.html
    Thank you
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,856
    Tykejohnno said:

    Louise Mensch ✔ @LouiseMensch
    Conor Burns MP declares for #Brexit. Conor was Margaret Thatcher's very close friend. #VoteLeave https://twitter.com/conorburns_mp/status/700974684595163136 …

    I know Conor very well - solid EUsceptic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    Another referendum will be held if the fundamentals change, and there is a clamour for one.

    That would require a major economic meltdown and migration crisis on top, probably.

    I'd say within 10 years, not 5 years. I certainly don't think you could call "a generation".
    I think that is wishful thinking.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,300
    If Dave says:

    LEAVE = The Rebels

    then:

    REMAIN = The Galactic Empire
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    So, what do we think they're promising Boris. Foreign Sec?
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Tykejohnno said:

    Sunday Times front page:
    Cameron declares war on rebels

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1

    First paragraph says 'Cameron ignites fresh civil war...'
    From which we can confidently conclude that Cameron has NOT ignited any civil war. Any media spouting usually means the opposite.
    Remarkably the PM has pointed out a home truth. Joining the EEA as an alternative to the EU and remaining in the single market will also entail free movement of workers.
    I won't waste my breath pointing out Norway again.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,300
    Gravitation said:

    So, what do we think they're promising Boris. Foreign Sec?

    Mayor of Brussels? :lol:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,856
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Times says no10 lobbying Boris...if they are briefing I presume like the eu deal it is in the bag already.

    The pressure on Boris tonight will be absolutely overwhelming.

    I think Dave will say, offer or do virtually anything to stop him declaring for Leave.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    Tykejohnno said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For those predicting the Tories splitting etc

    htps://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701166442515972096

    htps://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701167068171923456

    Yep,until cameron goes after them .
    It seems more likely that allies in the camps of both sides will make the serious attacks, and then the Senior Tories will be asked if they agree, invited to join in as it were. So Farage will call Cameron an idiotic liar, and IDS will be asked what he thinks about that. Cameron will be asked if IDS is implicitly calling him an idiot liar as well given he agrees the deal is not a good one.

    It will be interesting to see how well both try to sidestep the implied attacks without seeming to criticise each other
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.

    Leave could still win then if it wins over the 19% who still don't know, the odds favour Remain but even now Remain is still under 50%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited February 2016
    Gravitation said:

    So, what do we think they're promising Boris. Foreign Sec?

    Boris wouldn't go for that...it's hard work. How about Boris island airport?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,856
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro
    That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.

    How on earth can you call the next hundred years?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    edited February 2016
    Casino_Royale said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Times says no10 lobbying Boris...if they are briefing I presume like the eu deal it is in the bag already.

    The pressure on Boris tonight will be absolutely overwhelming.

    I think Dave will say, offer or do virtually anything to stop him declaring for Leave.
    Could the EU gain a new island out of this?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro
    That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.

    How on earth can you call the next hundred years?
    Humanity will be obsolete by 2040 in any case...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,856
    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    Another referendum will be held if the fundamentals change, and there is a clamour for one.

    That would require a major economic meltdown and migration crisis on top, probably.

    I'd say within 10 years, not 5 years. I certainly don't think you could call "a generation".
    I think that is wishful thinking.
    What's wishful thinking?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    CBS GOP early SC exit poll Terrorism the most important issue for voters, bodes well for Trump
    https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/701165931800748033
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,196
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    SquareRoot said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Great news for Dave

    Says a traitorous pigdog boooer!!!
    LEAVE = British and proud!
    REMAIN = Traitor Pig-Dogs!
    Leave = Be-Leavers
    Remain = Remainders
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "58% of the NV Dem vote in Clinton 52.1% Sanders 47.8%"

    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/20/politics/south-carolina-nevada-live-updates/index.html
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Tim Montgomerie ن ✔ @montie
    I underestimated @LouiseMensch. She really has put her beliefs before loyalty to Cameron. I apologise to her https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/701168376576614400 …

    Louise Mensch ✔ @LouiseMensch
    "Hey @david_cameron your bullshit "deal" is only temporary" says @JunckerEU helpfully (after one day) #Brexit https://twitter.com/Mina_Andreeva/status/700821002679357440 …

    Louise Mensch ✔ @LouiseMensch
    Hashtag #Refugees Hashtag #UKinEU no thanks to rapist males of fighting age bussed in from safe Turkey #Brexit https://twitter.com/EP_President/status/700365620391624705 …
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Looks like Nevada has been called for Clinton.

    Currently 52.2 - 47.7 ahead with 67.4% in

    Most of the remaining from Clark county so would expect the gap to widen at the end.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    HYUFD said:

    CBS GOP early SC exit poll Terrorism the most important issue for voters, bodes well for Trump
    https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/701165931800748033

    Kill them with pigs' blood dipped bullets!
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Tykejohnno said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For those predicting the Tories splitting etc

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701166442515972096

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701167068171923456

    Yep,until cameron goes after them .
    Gosh I was worried until I saw who wrote that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    HYUFD said:

    CBS GOP early SC exit poll Terrorism the most important issue for voters, bodes well for Trump
    https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/701165931800748033

    Imagine writing that sentence 12 months ago. The SC voters say terrorism is the most important issue, so they're likely to punish the candidate from the dynasty that 'kept America safe' and vote for the billionaire who's never held elected office.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    Gravitation said:

    So, what do we think they're promising Boris. Foreign Sec?

    Bit harsh on Hammond given he like all those holding the Great Offices of State have sided with Cameron on this one. I assume he's a team player though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,856
    RodCrosby said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro
    That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.

    How on earth can you call the next hundred years?
    Humanity will be obsolete by 2040 in any case...
    Huntsman, is that you..??
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    CNN now calls Nevada for Clinton with 66% in, 52% Clinton 47% Sanders
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/nv/Dem
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Gravitation said:

    Looks like Nevada has been called for Clinton.

    Currently 52.2 - 47.7 ahead with 67.4% in

    Most of the remaining from Clark county so would expect the gap to widen at the end.

    Sanders needs a 9.3% lead in the remainder. Not going to happen....
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Gravitation said:

    So, what do we think they're promising Boris. Foreign Sec?

    Boris wouldn't go for that...it's hard work. How about Boris island airport?
    I think Boris would go for the expenses-paid worldwide travel that it offers.

    Plus it keeps Boris out of the country a lot making leadership plotting much more difficult.

    Plus it would be a bit hilarious having Boris as our representative to the world.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    flightpath01 said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For those predicting the Tories splitting etc

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701166442515972096

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/701167068171923456

    Yep,until cameron goes after them .
    Gosh I was worried until I saw who wrote that.
    How's your team done.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Casino_Royale said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro
    That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.

    How on earth can you call the next hundred years?
    Humanity will be obsolete by 2040 in any case...
    Huntsman, is that you..??
    No, the median forecast of scientists.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    RodCrosby said:

    HYUFD said:

    CBS GOP early SC exit poll Terrorism the most important issue for voters, bodes well for Trump
    https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/701165931800748033

    Kill them with pigs' blood dipped bullets!
    Yes, he knows his market!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,274
    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.

    Leave could still win then if it wins over the 19% who still don't know, the odds favour Remain but even now Remain is still under 50%
    When has anyone won all the undecided. Split it in half and you get 57-42
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    CBS GOP early SC exit poll Terrorism the most important issue for voters, bodes well for Trump
    https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/701165931800748033

    Imagine writing that sentence 12 months ago. The SC voters say terrorism is the most important issue, so they're likely to punish the candidate from the dynasty that 'kept America safe' and vote for the billionaire who's never held elected office.
    Yes, looks that way
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,856
    RodCrosby said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro
    That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.

    How on earth can you call the next hundred years?
    Humanity will be obsolete by 2040 in any case...
    Huntsman, is that you..??
    No, the median forecast of scientists.
    I'm not quite sure what you mean: extinct, or redundant?

    The latter meaning, presumably, cybernetics doing everything? (which might lead to the extinction?)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    RodCrosby said:

    HYUFD said:

    CBS GOP early SC exit poll Terrorism the most important issue for voters, bodes well for Trump
    https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/701165931800748033

    Kill them with pigs' blood dipped bullets!
    I recall a trilogy of books, the name of which escapes me, which involved a near future fleet of ships getting accidentally sent back in time to WW2 - the present day setting featured in essence a global war against Islamic extremism, and the standard operating procedure of the western powers had become to kill the enemy then sew them up in pigskins to further humiliate them, or something to that effect.

    It also featured Prince Harry as a badass veteran SAS commando, meeting his young grandparents. It wasn't very good though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Gravitation said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Gravitation said:

    So, what do we think they're promising Boris. Foreign Sec?

    Boris wouldn't go for that...it's hard work. How about Boris island airport?
    I think Boris would go for the expenses-paid worldwide travel that it offers.

    Plus it keeps Boris out of the country a lot making leadership plotting much more difficult.

    Plus it would be a bit hilarious having Boris as our representative to the world.
    You know, if we had an elected ceremonial head of state, Boris might be the man for the job.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,486
    Tykejohnno said:

    Sunday Times front page:
    Cameron declares war on rebels

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1

    I thought everyone was saying the party wouldn't be split afterwards. Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro
    That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.

    How on earth can you call the next hundred years?
    One close referendum a second potentially makes, a second landslide referendum tends to settle the issue for good
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,486
    flightpath01 said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Sunday Times front page:
    Cameron declares war on rebels

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1

    First paragraph says 'Cameron ignites fresh civil war...'
    From which we can confidently conclude that Cameron has NOT ignited any civil war. Any media spouting usually means the opposite.
    Remarkably the PM has pointed out a home truth. Joining the EEA as an alternative to the EU and remaining in the single market will also entail free movement of workers.
    I won't waste my breath pointing out Norway again.
    Yes please don't. You will be wrong again as you were on the last thread.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Casino_Royale said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro
    That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.

    How on earth can you call the next hundred years?
    Humanity will be obsolete by 2040 in any case...
    Huntsman, is that you..??
    No, the median forecast of scientists.
    I'm not quite sure what you mean: extinct, or redundant?

    The latter meaning, presumably, cybernetics doing everything? (which might lead to the extinction?)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/701169295376699392
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Sunday Times front page:
    Cameron declares war on rebels

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1

    I thought everyone was saying the party wouldn't be split afterwards. Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?
    Is a silly headline, here's what Cameron has said in the Sunday Times

    When reports broke that Michael Gove, one of his closest friends in politics, would back Brexit, Cameron dismissed the news as “not a surprise”. But he now admits he was hurt by the move.

    “Obviously I am sad about it because he is a close friend and a very close colleague,” he said, before adding that Gove “will remain both of those things”.

    Asked if it might affect their friendship, he said: “I very much hope not.”

    Cameron also vowed not to axe ministers who have defied him in his next reshuffle. “My thoughts are nowhere near reshuffles. What I can say is that no one will be at any disadvantage by choosing to campaign in a particular way,” he said.

    “I want as many ministers and MPs to support the cause that I think is right but people have thought about these things very carefully and we are all going to respect each other and the choices we make, and no one will suffer disadvantage for a decision to go one way or the other way.”
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Gove really is persuasive: http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/michael-gove-why-im-backing-leave/

    This is possibly the best-written Out piece I have ever read. It is articles like this and Hannan that make me seriously think twice about how I'm going to vote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    RodCrosby said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro
    That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.

    How on earth can you call the next hundred years?
    Humanity will be obsolete by 2040 in any case...
    Oh good, so humanity ceases just before I collect my pension, that will solve retirement plans! Or we will have merged with robots in the singularity!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Sunday Times front page:
    Cameron declares war on rebels

    ttps://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1

    Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?
    Of course he bloody doesn't, he's the Tory PM, why would he want to destroy the party.

    Now, would he do it by accident is a fair(er) question, even if one thinks the answer is a resounding no.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,274
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    flightpath01 said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Sunday Times front page:
    Cameron declares war on rebels

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1

    First paragraph says 'Cameron ignites fresh civil war...'
    From which we can confidently conclude that Cameron has NOT ignited any civil war. Any media spouting usually means the opposite.
    Remarkably the PM has pointed out a home truth. Joining the EEA as an alternative to the EU and remaining in the single market will also entail free movement of workers.
    I won't waste my breath pointing out Norway again.
    Yes please don't. You will be wrong again as you were on the last thread.
    Can you clarify that any alternative allows the restriction of free movement. It is really important
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,357
    This seems to imply that Trump has done well in SC but really, why release the subsidiary data without the top lines?

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37077219
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    Survation phone poll for MoS carried out today
    REMAIN 48%
    LEAVE 33%
    DK 19%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    Gravitation said:

    So, what do we think they're promising Boris. Foreign Sec?

    Governor of St Helena!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,358
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    OK, let's think it thru.Let's assume the following:

    1) Remain wins
    2) the FrancoGerman-desired treaty change in 2017/8/whatever does not trigger the 2011 act
    3) Cameron remains PM until 2019

    Under these circs, no referendum 2 before 2020...but that's election year, so no.

    Afterwards? You'd need somebody - Corbyn, Cameron's successor to invent a case for a referendum and get it thru the House. Possible, but you'd need another year, so that takes us up to mid 2021.

    So it's *possible* to have a referendum 2 within 5 years, but it'd be tight.

    Of course, if any of the assumptions are wrong, results will differ: DYOR
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,856
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Sunday Times front page:
    Cameron declares war on rebels

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1

    I thought everyone was saying the party wouldn't be split afterwards. Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?
    Is a silly headline, here's what Cameron has said in the Sunday Times

    When reports broke that Michael Gove, one of his closest friends in politics, would back Brexit, Cameron dismissed the news as “not a surprise”. But he now admits he was hurt by the move.

    “Obviously I am sad about it because he is a close friend and a very close colleague,” he said, before adding that Gove “will remain both of those things”.

    Asked if it might affect their friendship, he said: “I very much hope not.”

    Cameron also vowed not to axe ministers who have defied him in his next reshuffle. “My thoughts are nowhere near reshuffles. What I can say is that no one will be at any disadvantage by choosing to campaign in a particular way,” he said.

    “I want as many ministers and MPs to support the cause that I think is right but people have thought about these things very carefully and we are all going to respect each other and the choices we make, and no one will suffer disadvantage for a decision to go one way or the other way.”
    Just the media having fun. Take no notice.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    flightpath01 said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Sunday Times front page:
    Cameron declares war on rebels

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1

    First paragraph says 'Cameron ignites fresh civil war...'
    From which we can confidently conclude that Cameron has NOT ignited any civil war. Any media spouting usually means the opposite.
    Remarkably the PM has pointed out a home truth. Joining the EEA as an alternative to the EU and remaining in the single market will also entail free movement of workers.
    I won't waste my breath pointing out Norway again.
    Yes please don't. You will be wrong again as you were on the last thread.
    Can you clarify that any alternative allows the restriction of free movement. It is really important
    Yes a simple free-trade deal rather than being a part of any 'bloc' would allow the restriction of free movement.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    david_herdson said:

    This seems to imply that Trump has done well in SC but really, why release the subsidiary data without the top lines?

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37077219

    Polling hasn't closed.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Times says no10 lobbying Boris...if they are briefing I presume like the eu deal it is in the bag already.

    Doesn't he really have to come out for Leave now? It would be an absurd anti-climax if he went Remain.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Hurrah!
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    SeanT said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    Pretty certain it will settle it for 15 years. Ultimately Europe will face some amjor challenges, whether we are in the EU or not. "A generation" maybe not.
    It won't settle it for a year if the EU - or the EZ - does something drastic, in the face of mounting crises. Which is quite likely. Schengen collapsed in a matter of months.

    Realpolitk will take over, once the democratic politics are out of the way.
    We are not in the EZ in the event it collapses. We are not in Schengen in the event it collapses.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Wanderer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Times says no10 lobbying Boris...if they are briefing I presume like the eu deal it is in the bag already.

    Doesn't he really have to come out for Leave now? It would be an absurd anti-climax if he went Remain.
    And end to his tory leadership hopes.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited February 2016
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Sunday Times front page:
    Cameron declares war on rebels

    I thought everyone was saying the party wouldn't be split afterwards. Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?
    Is a silly headline, here's what Cameron has said in the Sunday Times

    When reports broke that Michael Gove, one of his closest friends in politics, would back Brexit, Cameron dismissed the news as “not a surprise”. But he now admits he was hurt by the move.

    “Obviously I am sad about it because he is a close friend and a very close colleague,” he said, before adding that Gove “will remain both of those things”.

    Asked if it might affect their friendship, he said: “I very much hope not.”

    Cameron also vowed not to axe ministers who have defied him in his next reshuffle. “My thoughts are nowhere near reshuffles. What I can say is that no one will be at any disadvantage by choosing to campaign in a particular way,” he said.

    “I want as many ministers and MPs to support the cause that I think is right but people have thought about these things very carefully and we are all going to respect each other and the choices we make, and no one will suffer disadvantage for a decision to go one way or the other way.”
    Just the media having fun. Take no notice.
    Well quite.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,856
    RodCrosby said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro
    That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.

    How on earth can you call the next hundred years?
    Humanity will be obsolete by 2040 in any case...
    Huntsman, is that you..??
    No, the median forecast of scientists.
    I'm not quite sure what you mean: extinct, or redundant?

    The latter meaning, presumably, cybernetics doing everything? (which might lead to the extinction?)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity
    Ah, Skynet becomes sehlf ahwayeare.

    In da panic, dey tryta pull da plug.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    As I don't have an insight into or care for the internal politicking of the Tory party, it seems to me to on the face of it reasonable if Cameron were to axe all those who campaign for Out from his Cabinet. I agree with their stance, but it is in effect saying Cameron is wrong about a fundamental issue for the country, even though they are being polite about it. He'd be entitled to sack them in those circumstances.

    Now, that might not be a good idea as far as party unity goes, and in fact the opposite was stated to be the plan in the past few weeks - that is, Eurosceptics would be promoted, or at least retained - but I don't see why it would be a betrayal by Cameron either.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    35% of those polled by Survation for today's MoS #EYRef phone survey say they think Cameron did well. 30% say badly
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    I'm going to end up with a gargantuan bet on Trump lol
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    david_herdson said:

    This seems to imply that Trump has done well in SC but really, why release the subsidiary data without the top lines?

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37077219

    IIRC, in Iowa or NH, there was some legal reason given. They had a countdown to the numbers being released, then held back the headline figures until later.

    Maybe the same. Maybe not. Dunno.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,358
    Anyhoo, will not contribute overmuch tonight: am pleasantly pissed and watching the 2014 Robocop remake and it's a *lot* better than its rep suggests.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    HYUFD said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm spitballing ideas in my head for a thread, and could do with the thoughts of PBers.

    Let us imagine Remain win, and wins big, say by 20%, it might not settle it for a generation if the EU don't hold up their end of the bargain.

    We could see another referendum within five years?

    Or am I talking bollocks?

    An In win by 20% would settle it for a century, unless there was ever a possibility we joined the Euro
    That's a bit silly, HYUFD. A week is a long time in politics.

    How on earth can you call the next hundred years?
    Humanity will be obsolete by 2040 in any case...
    Oh good, so humanity ceases just before I collect my pension, that will solve retirement plans! Or we will have merged with robots in the singularity!
    It won't cease to exist. It will just be obsolete. It could still be used as food or fuel. Hope this helps with your retirement planning.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Wanderer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Times says no10 lobbying Boris...if they are briefing I presume like the eu deal it is in the bag already.

    Doesn't he really have to come out for Leave now? It would be an absurd anti-climax if he went Remain.
    If the FT are saying it supports staying in then is not the EU good for the city and does that not make it difficult for Boris to say leave?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    According to the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, 48 per cent of voters want to stay in the EU, with 33 in favour of leaving, and 19 per cent undecided. The first survey conducted since Mr Cameron’s marathon talks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday also found that 35 per cent believe he did well in the negotiations, against 30 per cent who say he did badly.

    Leave could still win then if it wins over the 19% who still don't know, the odds favour Remain but even now Remain is still under 50%
    When has anyone won all the undecided. Split it in half and you get 57-42
    Yes but undecideds can sometimes go one way or the other, even if not universally, this poll was taken entirely today after the deal was announced, Cameron has clearly got a bounce from the deal but there is a long way to go yet
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Sunday Times front page:
    Cameron declares war on rebels

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1

    I thought everyone was saying the party wouldn't be split afterwards. Does Cameron actually want to destroy the Tory party?
    Is a silly headline, here's what Cameron has said in the Sunday Times

    When reports broke that Michael Gove, one of his closest friends in politics, would back Brexit, Cameron dismissed the news as “not a surprise”. But he now admits he was hurt by the move.

    “Obviously I am sad about it because he is a close friend and a very close colleague,” he said, before adding that Gove “will remain both of those things”.

    Asked if it might affect their friendship, he said: “I very much hope not.”

    Cameron also vowed not to axe ministers who have defied him in his next reshuffle. “My thoughts are nowhere near reshuffles. What I can say is that no one will be at any disadvantage by choosing to campaign in a particular way,” he said.

    “I want as many ministers and MPs to support the cause that I think is right but people have thought about these things very carefully and we are all going to respect each other and the choices we make, and no one will suffer disadvantage for a decision to go one way or the other way.”
    Wasn't Osborne saying to ministers "you can campaign to leave or you can have a career"? Someone should ask Cameron if he knew anything about that.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,486
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    flightpath01 said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Sunday Times front page:
    Cameron declares war on rebels

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701166029322457088/photo/1

    First paragraph says 'Cameron ignites fresh civil war...'
    From which we can confidently conclude that Cameron has NOT ignited any civil war. Any media spouting usually means the opposite.
    Remarkably the PM has pointed out a home truth. Joining the EEA as an alternative to the EU and remaining in the single market will also entail free movement of workers.
    I won't waste my breath pointing out Norway again.
    Yes please don't. You will be wrong again as you were on the last thread.
    Can you clarify that any alternative allows the restriction of free movement. It is really important
    My comment didn't refer to free movement. That is a none issue for me as I have made clear at every stage of this debate. It referred to Flightpath's idiotic comments about Norway on the previous thread.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Tykejohnno said:

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    35% of those polled by Survation for today's MoS #EYRef phone survey say they think Cameron did well. 30% say badly

    Dave is a shit negotiator, but he's a great salesman.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,782
    If Cameron doesn't sack Gove IDS and Grayling it'll show enormous weakness. We saw today the impossibility of their positions. "Are you saying the Prime Minister is being dishonest?" "Don't you believe him when he says this is a good deal for Britain" and it'll only get worse.

    Think How Mourinho and Guardiola are destabilising United and City and it gives some idea of the shambles that'll be going on in government
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    kle4 said:

    As I don't have an insight into or care for the internal politicking of the Tory party, it seems to me to on the face of it reasonable if Cameron were to axe all those who campaign for Out from his Cabinet. I agree with their stance, but it is in effect saying Cameron is wrong about a fundamental issue for the country, even though they are being polite about it. He'd be entitled to sack them in those circumstances.

    Now, that might not be a good idea as far as party unity goes, and in fact the opposite was stated to be the plan in the past few weeks - that is, Eurosceptics would be promoted, or at least retained - but I don't see why it would be a betrayal by Cameron either.

    Oh do stop talking bollox.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,300
    edited February 2016
    kle4 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    HYUFD said:

    CBS GOP early SC exit poll Terrorism the most important issue for voters, bodes well for Trump
    https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/701165931800748033

    Kill them with pigs' blood dipped bullets!
    I recall a trilogy of books, the name of which escapes me, which involved a near future fleet of ships getting accidentally sent back in time to WW2 - the present day setting featured in essence a global war against Islamic extremism, and the standard operating procedure of the western powers had become to kill the enemy then sew them up in pigskins to further humiliate them, or something to that effect.

    It also featured Prince Harry as a badass veteran SAS commando, meeting his young grandparents. It wasn't very good though.
    Shades of "The Final Countdown" where the US carrier "Nimitz" goes back in time to just before Pearl Harbor.
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