The result is a bit odd because all the parties were saying Labour would lose a significant number of votes to UKIP, including Labour themselves. Why were they all wrong?
"Corbyn to leave post of Labour Leader in 2020" on offer at 7/1 from Hills looks like a value bet if you're prepared to wait four and a half years for your money. As ever DYOR.
I think I can get a better return on my money over the next 4 years in other ways.
So you claim to be able to beat a 700% return over the next 4.5 years ...... Wow, I'd love to share your investing techniques!
I was thinking that. Other than picking Apple and Google in a time machine...
I have made the majority of my income from being a professional gambler for over 10 years. So in short the answer is yes. I never lock my bankroll for that long, even for 7/1.
Was Labour 54.8% UKIP 20.6% in May so that suggests UKIP up a bit, Labour virtually unchanged
That would have to be regarded as pretty poor from UKIP.
Indeed but it looks like the Muslim vote came out for Labour UKIP did not make big enough inroads into white working class
Apparently the constituency is 56,000 white British and 14,000 Asian British. At the very least it looks like UKIP failed to inspire the WWC vote, some of which - at least - stuck with Labour. A good night for Jezza, a poir one for UKIP and those eho want an electable Labour party, and a great one for the Tories.
Turnout in The Asian British community is no usually very different to the white population.
Maybe, just maybe, the kippers are not as popular with the northern WWC as some on here would have, and maybe the same people are not so keen on bombing.
I have said on here many times that to win in traditional Labour seats UKIP is going to have to tack left. Its leadership is going to find that very hard given their bone dry politics.
I have also commented to that effect. UKIP need to take the anti-immigrant, protectionist, populist WWC vote. They need to show that they are the party of the working class. Not necessarily socialist, but for the little man.
The result is a bit odd because all the parties were saying Labour would lose a significant number of votes to UKIP, including Labour themselves. Why were they all wrong?
They were all wrong in May too. Maybe elections are just different these days.
George Eaton @georgeeaton 1m1 minute ago Labour source hears that Oldham vote share up since May (from 55%)
So if that really happens, would that be Corbyn's credit since hundreds of posts in PB alluded that any reduction in Labour vote would have been due to him.
"Corbyn to leave post of Labour Leader in 2020" on offer at 7/1 from Hills looks like a value bet if you're prepared to wait four and a half years for your money. As ever DYOR.
I think I can get a better return on my money over the next 4 years in other ways.
So you claim to be able to beat a 700% return over the next 4.5 years ...... Wow, I'd love to share your investing techniques!
PfP - in investments you look at expected returns. For you to get your 700% expected return, you'd have to be 100% certain on your bet coming home.
The result is a bit odd because all the parties were saying Labour would lose a significant number of votes to UKIP, including Labour themselves. Why were they all wrong?
Never believe a source on how badly Labour or Corbyn is doing, if it's name is Simon Danzcuk.
The result is a bit odd because all the parties were saying Labour would lose a significant number of votes to UKIP, including Labour themselves. Why were they all wrong?
They were all wrong in May too. Maybe elections are just different these days.
George Eaton @georgeeaton 1m1 minute ago Labour source hears that Oldham vote share up since May (from 55%)
So if that really happens, would that be Corbyn's credit since hundreds of posts in PB alluded that any reduction in Labour vote would have been due to him.
It was due to the ingenious tactical voting by the Tories in the constituency to ensure Corybn's future.
George Eaton @georgeeaton 1m1 minute ago Labour source hears that Oldham vote share up since May (from 55%)
So if that really happens, would that be Corbyn's credit since hundreds of posts in PB alluded that any reduction in Labour vote would have been due to him.
This undoubtedly a very good result for him. But not as good as it is for the Tories.
The result is a bit odd because all the parties were saying Labour would lose a significant number of votes to UKIP, including Labour themselves. Why were they all wrong?
Postal votes in particular but the result reflects most polls showing little change from the election
George Eaton @georgeeaton 1m1 minute ago Labour source hears that Oldham vote share up since May (from 55%)
So if that really happens, would that be Corbyn's credit since hundreds of posts in PB alluded that any reduction in Labour vote would have been due to him.
It was due to the ingenious tactical voting by the Tories in the constituency to ensure Corybn's future.
So long as five or six hundred have stuck with them...
"Corbyn to leave post of Labour Leader in 2020" on offer at 7/1 from Hills looks like a value bet if you're prepared to wait four and a half years for your money. As ever DYOR.
I think I can get a better return on my money over the next 4 years in other ways.
So you claim to be able to beat a 700% return over the next 4.5 years ...... Wow, I'd love to share your investing techniques!
PfP - in investments you look at expected returns. For you to get your 700% expected return, you'd have to be 100% certain on your bet coming home.
You're missing the point - FrancisUrquhart claimed to be able "to get a better return over the next 4 years in other ways" There's no reference here to the risk element, it's a straight unqualified claim as regards the return he claims able to obtain. I simply asked how, as I would like a piece of that part of that particular action!
George Eaton @georgeeaton 1m1 minute ago Labour source hears that Oldham vote share up since May (from 55%)
So if that really happens, would that be Corbyn's credit since hundreds of posts in PB alluded that any reduction in Labour vote would have been due to him.
It was due to the ingenious tactical voting by the Tories in the constituency to ensure Corybn's future.
So long as five or six hundred have stuck with them...
George Eaton @georgeeaton 1m1 minute ago Labour source hears that Oldham vote share up since May (from 55%)
So if that really happens, would that be Corbyn's credit since hundreds of posts in PB alluded that any reduction in Labour vote would have been due to him.
David Herdson publicly wrote on PB that if Labour got more than 55% in the by-election in Oldham he will eat Lord Ashdown's hat, we are all awaiting eagerly to see it, don't forget to post the photographic evidence on PB Mr. Herdson.
Fabulous result - and so huge that really UKIP grumbling about postal votes is irrelevant. They are a busted flush.
I did think turnout would be respectable - for some reason it was at a national average level of 60% even at the GE when everyone knew it was a walkover, and after weeks of intensive campaigning it looked likely to be decent even in December.
BTW, probably reported earlier, but a Standard poll today puts Khan 6 points ahead.
Clearly so, but judging by his acceptance speech the winner is an excellent local candidate and must have got fairly strong support from other communities too.
Fabulous result - and so huge that really UKIP grumbling about postal votes is irrelevant. They are a busted flush.
I did think turnout would be respectable - for some reason it was at a national average level of 60% even at the GE when everyone knew it was a walkover, and after weeks of intensive campaigning it looked likely to be decent even in December.
BTW, probably reported earlier, but a Standard poll today puts Khan 6 points ahead.
Looking at how Labour won all the asian votes and increased their turnout too, Khan is now the favourite in London.
Clearly so, but judging by his acceptance speech the winner is an excellent local candidate and must have got fairly strong support from other communities too.
Indeed, but we don't want to see Tower Hamlets' voting practices going national, do we?
Fabulous result - and so huge that really UKIP grumbling about postal votes is irrelevant. They are a busted flush.
I did think turnout would be respectable - for some reason it was at a national average level of 60% even at the GE when everyone knew it was a walkover, and after weeks of intensive campaigning it looked likely to be decent even in December.
BTW, probably reported earlier, but a Standard poll today puts Khan 6 points ahead.
Looking at how Labour won all the asian votes and increased their turnout too, Khan is now the favourite in London.
Yeah, thanks for pointing that out. I just reinvested my betfair winnings from Oldham, taking the evens bet on Khan.
I hope Tissue Price wasn't on the other side of that bet...
Fabulous result - and so huge that really UKIP grumbling about postal votes is irrelevant. They are a busted flush.
I did think turnout would be respectable - for some reason it was at a national average level of 60% even at the GE when everyone knew it was a walkover, and after weeks of intensive campaigning it looked likely to be decent even in December.
BTW, probably reported earlier, but a Standard poll today puts Khan 6 points ahead.
Couple more years of Jihadi Jez and McIRA will definately see you back in power. Keep up the good work.
A major blow for the PB wisdom index.Could it be PB has become unrepresentative of public opinion?
Did anyone got the result right?
Even I with my final prediction of Labour 50, UKIP 30 was way off, the result was closer to my initial prediction of Labour 55-65 though. And David Herdson will now have to eat Lord Ashdowns hat.
Comments
Remain is value at 1/2 or above.
Let's see if Corbyn can do better tonight.
I simply asked how, as I would like a piece of that part of that particular action!
(Next week: when did servers start using the phrase "you alright?" to mean "would you like me to serve you?")
UKIP - 6487
LD - 1024
CON - 2596
GRN - 249
LAB - 17209? Didn't hear the last figure....
UKIP 23
Very impressive from Labour. Esp. McMahon. Good call to not have Corbyn there much...
Do you still have my email? let me know the address and I shall get it in the post.
-£20 UKIP
+£37.5 Turnout
+£40.83 Lib Dem deposit
+£20 Tories vs Lib Dem
-£10 Tories overs.
Labour vote share up to 62.2% (+7.4%) since May - very good result.
Best result for Labour in Oldham on record.
Hilary Benn is toast.
I did think turnout would be respectable - for some reason it was at a national average level of 60% even at the GE when everyone knew it was a walkover, and after weeks of intensive campaigning it looked likely to be decent even in December.
BTW, probably reported earlier, but a Standard poll today puts Khan 6 points ahead.
Other personal details, including names and email addresses may also have been stolen from more than 650,000 people.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35002951
Not least because McMahon seems to be a good bloke, and should be an MP.
Remember that, when EUREF comes about.
Labour gets a very promising addition to its ranks. The Tories get to keep Jezza.
I have word from an impeccable source that Farage should call it a day and resign....
#justsayin
I hope Tissue Price wasn't on the other side of that bet...
I think we're witnessing a polarisation. Labour piling up votes where they don't need them. Probably Tories too. Marginals will be the key, as always.
Amazing that bookies had it so close when the result was so emphatic, and predictable really.
Even I with my final prediction of Labour 50, UKIP 30 was way off, the result was closer to my initial prediction of Labour 55-65 though.
And David Herdson will now have to eat Lord Ashdowns hat.
They went forward in Oldham and Newham.
It's the same pattern established by Miliband.