Was Labour 54.8% UKIP 20.6% in May so that suggests UKIP up a bit, Labour virtually unchanged
That would have to be regarded as pretty poor from UKIP.
Indeed but it looks like the Muslim vote came out for Labour UKIP did not make big enough inroads into white working class
Apparently the constituency is 56,000 white British and 14,000 Asian British. At the very least it looks like UKIP failed to inspire the WWC vote, some of which - at least - stuck with Labour. A good night for Jezza, a poir one for UKIP and those eho want an electable Labour party, and a great one for the Tories.
While Corbyn remaining in place might seem like it should hurt in the long run, with his low approvals and so on, generally accepted wisdom was still that Labour would take a hit here. If they haven't, as seems the case, will we have to revise our view that he will inevitably do as poorly in future as has been predicted, particularly when he will likely be competing against Osborne, May or Johnson? He has, after all, just demonstrated he has a lot more support in the PLP that some think (if not in the shadow cabinet), the members are with him, the polls aren't great but haven't collapsed, and the Tories will in future have a new leader, possible economic troubles and Europe to contend with, and his personal ratings are so low they can only go up from here.
Now I still think Corbyn is not the sort of person the UK would vote for en masse. But clearly people will still consider Labour as much as they would before right now, so if he is a major drag, it might not be apparent except at a GE, when the binary Con-Lab choice will once again come up? Other votes if people hate the Tories or like the Labour brand enough, or both, without the personal worry of Corbyn himself, may not be as problematic. So..Khan safe then?
Well, it's looking like I've called this pretty wrong. Big questions for UKIP if it really is a 7k+ majority, though - I thought they'd hit on the right strategy. I suspect they still have, given the state of the Labour Party, but they've got a fair way further to go than I expected.
It will tell Corbyn that he is doing the right thing and not to change.
Which is great for the Tories.
It suggests what most polls are suggesting, other than Comres, that Labour is on 30% or so nationally and have made no progress since May under Corbyn but have not collapsed either as the most pessimistic forecasts had predicted, Corbyn has not won over any Tories or UKIP voters but he has held onto the vast majority of those who voted for Ed Miliband
Which is precisely what I said in the summer, that Corbyn is a low risk low reward candidate, he won't lose or gain many votes despite the screaming from the right or the left.
Indeed, Corbyn is shoring up the Labour base and the ethnic Muslim vote but turning off swing voters who voted for Cameron, hence little change since the election
Labour had a very good candidate. UKIP? Not so much.
The Bangladeshi and Pakistani communities love Corbyn - and will have voted en masse for him. Labour seats that don't have such a solid block of south Asian votes to rely on should still be of much more concern.
"Corbyn to leave post of Labour Leader in 2020" on offer at 7/1 from Hills looks like a value bet if you're prepared to wait four and a half years for your money. As ever DYOR.
Was Labour 54.8% UKIP 20.6% in May so that suggests UKIP up a bit, Labour virtually unchanged
That would have to be regarded as pretty poor from UKIP.
Indeed but it looks like the Muslim vote came out for Labour UKIP did not make big enough inroads into white working class
Apparently the constituency is 56,000 white British and 14,000 Asian British. At the very least it looks like UKIP failed to inspire the WWC vote, some of which - at least - stuck with Labour. A good night for Jezza, a poir one for UKIP and those eho want an electable Labour party, and a great one for the Tories.
Turnout in The Asian British community is no usually very different to the white population.
Maybe, just maybe, the kippers are not as popular with the northern WWC as some on here would have, and maybe the same people are not so keen on bombing.
@SebastianEPayne: #Ukip sources say Labour has carried out an “extraordinary" postal vote operation in #OldhamWest - “I’ve never seen anything like it”
"Corbyn to leave post of Labour Leader in 2020" on offer at 7/1 from Hills looks like a value bet if you're prepared to wait four and a half years for your money. As ever DYOR.
I think I can get a better return on my money over the next 4 years in other ways.
Was Labour 54.8% UKIP 20.6% in May so that suggests UKIP up a bit, Labour virtually unchanged
That would have to be regarded as pretty poor from UKIP.
Indeed but it looks like the Muslim vote came out for Labour UKIP did not make big enough inroads into white working class
Apparently the constituency is 56,000 white British and 14,000 Asian British. At the very least it looks like UKIP failed to inspire the WWC vote, some of which - at least - stuck with Labour. A good night for Jezza, a poir one for UKIP and those eho want an electable Labour party, and a great one for the Tories.
Turnout in The Asian British community is no usually very different to the white population.
Maybe, just maybe, the kippers are not as popular with the northern WWC as some on here would have, and maybe the same people are not so keen on bombing.
I have said on here many times that to win in traditional Labour seats UKIP is going to have to tack left. Its leadership is going to find that very hard given their bone dry politics.
@SebastianEPayne: #Ukip sources say Labour has carried out an “extraordinary" postal vote operation in #OldhamWest - “I’ve never seen anything like it”
Was Labour 54.8% UKIP 20.6% in May so that suggests UKIP up a bit, Labour virtually unchanged
That would have to be regarded as pretty poor from UKIP.
Indeed but it looks like the Muslim vote came out for Labour UKIP did not make big enough inroads into white working class
Apparently the constituency is 56,000 white British and 14,000 Asian British. At the very least it looks like UKIP failed to inspire the WWC vote, some of which - at least - stuck with Labour. A good night for Jezza, a poir one for UKIP and those eho want an electable Labour party, and a great one for the Tories.
Turnout in The Asian British community is no usually very different to the white population.
Maybe, just maybe, the kippers are not as popular with the northern WWC as some on here would have, and maybe the same people are not so keen on bombing.
We still don't know the outcome but if it is true that Labour have done very well, it shows all the gossip is worthless. As I have said, many times before, find out the canvass returns from more than one party. The parties leak like a sieve at election time. Then estimate turnout to recalibrate share.
OK, I'll bite.
a) How does one find out the canvass returns? b) how does one estimate turnout? c) how does one use the turnout estimates to recalibrate share?
Great
Visit the saddo political websites, just google them. Activists gossip amongst themselves. If you belong to a political party, ask if anyone has been to constituency, or if they know a local activist. If not, e-mail local activists, say you are helping and ask how is it going.
You can't estimate turnout beyond what is normal in that type of election. This was by-election so, 40% is about right.
Recalibrate. So, Labour said less people were voting for them. But less people were voting for all parties as turnout down. If GE turnout 60% and by-election 40% simply divide 40/60, two thirds.
I happen to know a Labour bloke who gives lots of info around the country. He's often right. UKIP boast so that's easy and you know when they are lying. You do have to do some digging but politicians/activists love to talk.
Was Labour 54.8% UKIP 20.6% in May so that suggests UKIP up a bit, Labour virtually unchanged
That would have to be regarded as pretty poor from UKIP.
Indeed but it looks like the Muslim vote came out for Labour UKIP did not make big enough inroads into white working class
Apparently the constituency is 56,000 white British and 14,000 Asian British. At the very least it looks like UKIP failed to inspire the WWC vote, some of which - at least - stuck with Labour. A good night for Jezza, a poir one for UKIP and those eho want an electable Labour party, and a great one for the Tories.
Turnout in The Asian British community is no usually very different to the white population.
Maybe, just maybe, the kippers are not as popular with the northern WWC as some on here would have, and maybe the same people are not so keen on bombing.
@SebastianEPayne: #Ukip sources say Labour has carried out an “extraordinary" postal vote operation in #OldhamWest - “I’ve never seen anything like it”
Corbyn only went up at the beginning of the campaign. Was supposed to go last Friday and it was cancelled at last minute. McDonnell went during the last weekend.
"Corbyn to leave post of Labour Leader in 2020" on offer at 7/1 from Hills looks like a value bet if you're prepared to wait four and a half years for your money. As ever DYOR.
I think I can get a better return on my money over the next 4 years in other ways.
So you claim to be able to beat a 700% return over the next 4.5 years ...... Wow, I'd love to share your investing techniques!
Corbyn only went up at the beginning of the campaign. Was supposed to go last Friday and it was cancelled at last minute. McDonnell went during the last weekend.
McMahon is frontbench material. Maybe not Corbyn's front bench but someone's frontbench
If I was Corbyn I would have raced to go to the Oldham count for the declaration, to gain as much credit for the result as possible.
You seemed to have mistaken Team Corbyn with a intelligent PR savvy operation.
Wasn't Corbyn told not to go? The local spin seems to be this is all about the candidate.
Corbyn couldn't visit Oldham because of the usual suspects conspiring over Syria . Since the Syrian vote was top news for at least a week and this election was framed by Corbyn's enemies as a referendum on Corbyn and his stance on Syria, this is a big victory for Corbyn.
"Corbyn to leave post of Labour Leader in 2020" on offer at 7/1 from Hills looks like a value bet if you're prepared to wait four and a half years for your money. As ever DYOR.
I think I can get a better return on my money over the next 4 years in other ways.
So you claim to be able to beat a 700% return over the next 4.5 years ...... Wow, I'd love to share your investing techniques!
I was thinking that. Other than picking Apple and Google in a time machine...
If I were Corbyn I would have raced to go to the Oldham count for the declaration, to gain as much credit for the result as possible.
To be honest, a terrible result for moderate Labour supporters who want the party to have a chance at the next general election.
Even IDS got 2 years and had some reasonable local election results and no disastrous by-elections until Brent East when the Tories came third which triggered his ousting, I have always said Corbyn will be leader at least until 2017 and given Labour won Oldham even in 1983 it would have been an appalling result had they lost it
Of course the winning Labour candidate, Jim McMahon, backed Liz Kendall for leader so the Blairites could even claim this is their victory really not Corbyn's
"Corbyn to leave post of Labour Leader in 2020" on offer at 7/1 from Hills looks like a value bet if you're prepared to wait four and a half years for your money. As ever DYOR.
I think I can get a better return on my money over the next 4 years in other ways.
So you claim to be able to beat a 700% return over the next 4.5 years ...... Wow, I'd love to share your investing techniques!
PfP - in investments you look at expected returns. For you to get your 700% expected return, you'd have to be 100% certain on your bet coming home.
I agree. For pensioners, disabled and those proven to be out of country. That was the original objective.
Yep. UKIP are probably just trying to muddy the waters to obscure how poorly they've done but my point still stands, if you're too lazy to go out and vote you don't get to vote. Infirm and elderly and abroad fair enough.
"Corbyn to leave post of Labour Leader in 2020" on offer at 7/1 from Hills looks like a value bet if you're prepared to wait four and a half years for your money. As ever DYOR.
I think I can get a better return on my money over the next 4 years in other ways.
So you claim to be able to beat a 700% return over the next 4.5 years ...... Wow, I'd love to share your investing techniques!
I was thinking that. Other than picking Apple and Google in a time machine...
It seemed a perfectly sensible comment to me. If you're calculating the expected return on a bet, you can't just assume you're going to win it. There's value in the bet if the odds are longer than the true probability implies - but you'd need that reality gap to be pretty wide, to generate better expected returns than other things you could do with your money over the course of 4.5 years.
Comments
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVVzKOzWIAAB-Bo.jpg:large
Now I still think Corbyn is not the sort of person the UK would vote for en masse. But clearly people will still consider Labour as much as they would before right now, so if he is a major drag, it might not be apparent except at a GE, when the binary Con-Lab choice will once again come up? Other votes if people hate the Tories or like the Labour brand enough, or both, without the personal worry of Corbyn himself, may not be as problematic. So..Khan safe then?
Good night.
@britainelects:
Teme Valley (Malvern Hills) result:
CON: 63.8% (-8.4)
LAB: 22.9% (+22.9)
UKIP: 13.3% (-14.4)
15% SWING CON to LAB in out of touch Teme Valley too
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/ukip-van-playing-bing-crosbys-10546137
As ever DYOR.
Maybe, just maybe, the kippers are not as popular with the northern WWC as some on here would have, and maybe the same people are not so keen on bombing.
Having an extra MP conspiring against their own party.
Visit the saddo political websites, just google them. Activists gossip amongst themselves. If you belong to a political party, ask if anyone has been to constituency, or if they know a local activist. If not, e-mail local activists, say you are helping and ask how is it going.
You can't estimate turnout beyond what is normal in that type of election. This was by-election so, 40% is about right.
Recalibrate. So, Labour said less people were voting for them. But less people were voting for all parties as turnout down. If GE turnout 60% and by-election 40% simply divide 40/60, two thirds.
I happen to know a Labour bloke who gives lots of info around the country. He's often right. UKIP boast so that's easy and you know when they are lying. You do have to do some digging but politicians/activists love to talk.
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVV2GkwWcAA6cZx.jpg:large
He's a careerist, he'll do what will keep him from being deselected.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/672574511846395904
Terrible result for Benn of course.
Possibly declaration in about 10 minutes in Oldham West & Royton
Declaration coming?
I hope so.
McMahon is frontbench material.
And if they all voted by post so what? They weren't going to be persuaded by Ukip in the final week I doubt!
Tories laughing !
.
Since the Syrian vote was top news for at least a week and this election was framed by Corbyn's enemies as a referendum on Corbyn and his stance on Syria, this is a big victory for Corbyn.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/live-oldham-west-royton-election-10546128
Of course the winning Labour candidate, Jim McMahon, backed Liz Kendall for leader so the Blairites could even claim this is their victory really not Corbyn's
Labour source hears that Oldham vote share up since May (from 55%)
From Labour.