politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage’s “unresignation” makes him and his party look stupi
Comments
-
Newsnight — a must watch tonight for those interesting in polling...0
-
Such a load of bull. Take the minimum wage. Now fully part of the centre ground furniture, originally opposed in apocalyptic terms by the right.OblitusSumMe said:
That's the difference between the Left and the Right in the UK. The ablest leaders on the right have been able to win public debate and implement policy in office that has moved the centre ground of political debate further to the right. The ablest leaders on the left have been able to convince their party that they should give up on moving the centre ground in favour of simply occupying office.Casino_Royale said:I am looking forward to the Conservatives sufficiently moving the centre of gravity of political debate in this country such that next time it is fought on different, and far more sensible, ground.
0 -
OblitusSumMe said:
That's the difference between the Left and the Right in the UK. The ablest leaders on the right have been able to win public debate and implement policy in office that has moved the centre ground of political debate further to the right. The ablest leaders on the left have been able to convince their party that they should give up on moving the centre ground in favour of simply occupying office.Casino_Royale said:I am looking forward to the Conservatives sufficiently moving the centre of gravity of political debate in this country such that next time it is fought on different, and far more sensible, ground.
I'd say that on the whole it's becoming less tribal. This in theory while all it will do is increase volatility, in practice it will aid the fiscal right (& to a lesser extent the social centre-left) as those who currently vote Conservative currently do so because they believe in it/favours their pocket, however the tribal left still vote Labour in massive numbers (wasn't there one poll (however accurate it is) that showed that a humungous amount of people's primary reason for voting Labour was that it was 'traditional'?) and if they put their heads up and are convinced that the Conservatives may offer a decent future - that represents a massive problem for Labour.AndyJS said:
That's correct. The electorate does seem to be becoming more volatile so a big swing back to Labour isn't impossible in certain circumstances.HYUFD said:AndyJS There was a swing in the marginals above UNS this election, no reason there could not be a swingback larger than UNS if the circumstances are right, especially given the marginals are the focus of most campaigning
Yep, agree totally.JEO said:
That will be a massive loss if Carswell leaves UKIP. I don't agree with him on everything but he's clearly a man of substance and principle. What sort of unprofessional organisation doesn't even tell their MPs that their leader is walking back his resignation before they publicly announce it? For goodness sake, it's this sort of amateurishness that shows they need a more sophisticated leader than Farage the showman.Scott_P said:@RobDotHutton: Carswell Unendorses Farage Unresignation. Includes chase down stairs, and Carswell refusing to say he's still in UKIP http://t.co/SvYafkLnPa
0 -
Can we confirm that Nick Palmer will not be standing again?0
-
Why do losing parties gain members? Traditional British support for the underdog? I see that the Lib Dems have now got over 9000 new members since Thursday - that is more than 20% increase, Labour have also put on more than 20,000 - Unite members joining as individuals so as to take part in the leadership election?0
-
I'm sure it won't. But like most things UKIP do, it's very amusing. Queen Victoria was a devotee of the Farage Imperative. Always pissing herself laughing as she was, in fact, not unamusedSeanT said:
You're deluded if you think this is gonna seriously damage UKIP. Farage is beloved by his supporters and voters. He is quietly popular with some *potential* kippers too, even as he is loathed and feared by Tories and Labourites.dyedwoolie said:4 million Kippers now demanding they be allowed to unvote for the clown party
What will damage UKIP, is if the Tories, with a majority, swing hard right, seizing the kipper vote. But this is unlikely.
And the big drivers of UKIP success - mass EU immigration, Labour WWC self hatred - show no signs of abating.0 -
So pleasing not to have to set an alarm for 10.30 every night for the rollercoast of the daily YouGov!0
-
Amazing: Labour's internal polls had the party up to 7 points lower for years compared to the public polls.0
-
Anyone else a Reginald Perrin fan? I am, and this Farage comeback is very Perrin-esque.. should have waded into the sea at Dover then came back as Martin Rogers or somesuch for the full effect0
-
Farage is in danger of the whole UKIP insurgency collapsing if he doesn't handle things carefully right now. A smart leader would reach out to Carswell, apologise for not informing him privately, listen carefully to his criticisms, and readjust his form of leadership. Perhaps he could publicly announce that he might have made one or two mistakes during the campaign on some of the more inflammatory issues, and will seek to present more of a UKIP team to the electorate over the next parliament. What he actually needs is to stop UKIP being such a one man band, mainstream the party's appeal and sort out the organisational management of the party.
Somehow I doubt he will do this, however. Farage enjoys being in the limelight, and he's good at it, so he will fall into the mindset of thinking that's all that is needed.0 -
I think Carswell might do something silly here. Not defect back to the Tories (too fantastic) but perhaps resign from UKIP and sit as an independent. He could claim he needs freedom from the shackles of party affiliation in order to articulate his vision of a free-trade, pro-immigration Britain. If he does go down this road, then I suspect the HIV stuff started it; the resignation-that-never-was concluded it.0
-
AndyJS said:
Amazing: Labour's internal polls had the party up to 7 points lower for years compared to the public polls.
Who the hell was polling for them and why were they putting crap out for public consumption.?
0 -
This is not a good sign.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep, also says a lot about what he wants out of the 'renegotiation'. Sweet FA.AndyJS said:
That's probably Cameron's "I've just won so I can do what I like" moment.Richard_Tyndall said:I see Cameron has left the Europhile Lidington as Europe Minister.
0 -
'beloved'? You are suffering from North Korean levels of indoctrination. Or is it Branch Davidian.SeanT said:
You're deluded if you think this is gonna seriously damage UKIP. Farage is beloved by his supporters and voters. He is quietly popular with some *potential* kippers too, even as he is loathed and feared by Tories and Labourites.dyedwoolie said:4 million Kippers now demanding they be allowed to unvote for the clown party
What will damage UKIP, is if the Tories, with a majority, swing hard right, seizing the kipper vote. But this is unlikely.
And the big drivers of UKIP success - mass EU immigration, Labour WWC self hatred - show no signs of abating.
EU immigration is being driven by a mass of new jobs being created.0 -
Casino_Royale said:
This is not a good sign.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep, also says a lot about what he wants out of the 'renegotiation'. Sweet FA.AndyJS said:
That's probably Cameron's "I've just won so I can do what I like" moment.Richard_Tyndall said:I see Cameron has left the Europhile Lidington as Europe Minister.
It is not. But lets see what he comes up with first.0 -
Yet UKIP's goal is to win a referendum where they need to reach out beyond Kippers and potential Kippers. 50% of the electorate in fact. And they need to do this within 18 months apparently. They need to sort themselves out pronto, given the vast array of interests aligned against them.SeanT said:
You're deluded if you think this is gonna seriously damage UKIP. Farage is beloved by his supporters and voters. He is quietly popular with some *potential* kippers too, even as he is loathed and feared by Tories and Labourites.dyedwoolie said:4 million Kippers now demanding they be allowed to unvote for the clown party
What will damage UKIP, is if the Tories, with a majority, swing hard right, seizing the kipper vote. But this is unlikely.
And the big drivers of UKIP success - mass EU immigration, Labour WWC self hatred - show no signs of abating.
0 -
NP is usually more circumspect than he was the other weej. He seemed very confident of success. He's been doing the game a long time. Sometimes the worst canvasser is the candidate.john_zims said:'SquareRoot
'Well that ties in with Nick Palmer "overegging" his canvas returns.. and IIRC that Soubry had given up. Why that was posted is a mystery, but not as mysterious as the IIRC failed Labour candidate IOS and his marvellous Labour ground game that was going to win it for Labour.'
He never met any Tory voters, Soubry and & the Lib Dems had given up,Soubry couldn't even be arsed to debate with him at the university nothing was going to change anything over the past two years, budgets etc.would make no difference,Lib Dems defecting en masse to the Labour party and the campaign wouldn't change any voters minds.
Just a question of how big his majority was going to be.
My numbers were completely at odds to his.0 -
Colin Cowpatisam said:Anyone else a Reginald Perrin fan? I am, and this Farage comeback is very Perrin-esque.. should have waded into the sea at Dover then came back as Martin Rogers or somesuch for the full effect
0 -
Peter Kellner of YouGov on Newsnight just said they got the IndyRef spot on.
Really?0 -
https://twitter.com/ryan_murton/status/597876702224744448Stark_Dawning said:I think Carswell might do something silly here. Not defect back to the Tories (too fantastic) but perhaps resign from UKIP and sit as an independent. He could claim he needs freedom from the shackles of party affiliation in order to articulate his vision of a free-trade, pro-immigration Britain. If he does go down this road, then I suspect the HIV stuff started it; the resignation-that-never-was concluded it.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/5978779871455518720 -
I don't know how serious they were but someone on here was suggesting yesterday that lots of anti Lib Dems might be joining the party to make sure they elect the most useless leader.slade said:Why do losing parties gain members? Traditional British support for the underdog? I see that the Lib Dems have now got over 9000 new members since Thursday - that is more than 20% increase, Labour have also put on more than 20,000 - Unite members joining as individuals so as to take part in the leadership election?
0 -
Can we get these published weekly on pb.com over the next 5 years rather than the mainstream pollsters please?AndyJS said:Amazing: Labour's internal polls had the party up to 7 points lower for years compared to the public polls.
0 -
The Lib Dems are feeling the advantage of buyers remorse; people didn't really want them to be destroyed (I nearly joined!). The Labour party surge is probably is probably Unite members, as you say.slade said:Why do losing parties gain members? Traditional British support for the underdog? I see that the Lib Dems have now got over 9000 new members since Thursday - that is more than 20% increase, Labour have also put on more than 20,000 - Unite members joining as individuals so as to take part in the leadership election?
0 -
It really is very worrying. I hope Cameron doesn't try to surf his win to trample over the eurosceptic wing of his party. He could have at least appointed a moderate.Casino_Royale said:
This is not a good sign.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep, also says a lot about what he wants out of the 'renegotiation'. Sweet FA.AndyJS said:
That's probably Cameron's "I've just won so I can do what I like" moment.Richard_Tyndall said:I see Cameron has left the Europhile Lidington as Europe Minister.
0 -
I was YouGoved today...Mortimer said:So pleasing not to have to set an alarm for 10.30 every night for the rollercoast of the daily YouGov!
BTW: Congratulations on your triumph in the prediction contest.
0 -
Indeed.Chameleon said:Casino_Royale said:
This is not a good sign.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep, also says a lot about what he wants out of the 'renegotiation'. Sweet FA.AndyJS said:
That's probably Cameron's "I've just won so I can do what I like" moment.Richard_Tyndall said:I see Cameron has left the Europhile Lidington as Europe Minister.
It is not. But lets see what he comes up with first.0 -
I recall he stated strongly that he wasn't going to defect from the Tories.isam said:
https://twitter.com/ryan_murton/status/597876702224744448Stark_Dawning said:I think Carswell might do something silly here. Not defect back to the Tories (too fantastic) but perhaps resign from UKIP and sit as an independent. He could claim he needs freedom from the shackles of party affiliation in order to articulate his vision of a free-trade, pro-immigration Britain. If he does go down this road, then I suspect the HIV stuff started it; the resignation-that-never-was concluded it.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/5978779871455518720 -
Extremely low phone response rate 9%... there is no chance of getting a random sample.Casino_Royale said:
Can we get these published weekly on pb.com over the next 5 years rather than the mainstream pollsters please?AndyJS said:Amazing: Labour's internal polls had the party up to 7 points lower for years compared to the public polls.
0 -
SeanT, Pulpstar, AndyJS Yes Newsnight good on polling, Survation apparently had a poll on Wed night 37-31 Tory they did not publish. Kellner also had some interesting thoughts0
-
If Carswell quits UKIP before he is sworn in, does that count as zero seats for betting purposes???0
-
Thanks for that Nigel and your right on the poor lad who died during the Birminghan/leeds game, condolence to his family on this sad day.nigel4england said:
30 years tykejohnno, a horrible day for all football fans, much sympathy and respect to all Bradford fans,Tykejohnno said:Nick Sutton @suttonnick ·
Tuesday's Guardian front page:
PM hops on the fast-track to EU referendum in 2016
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
Almost unnoticed the same day a 15 year old lad attending a match for the first time died during the riot at Birmingham v Leeds.
One thing we have got right in the last 30 years is safety at football.
I attended the 30th anniversary today in centenary square in Bradford,very moving,especially when all the names were read out with a bell sound after every name.
0 -
ScottP They had a final poll 52-48 No and an 'exit poll' I think 54-46 No0
-
Minimum wage is so low it does not matter and it doesn't apply to the vast numbers of illegal immigrant workers who are the real drivers of low wages. Typically New Labour smoke and mirrors.Jonathan said:
Such a load of bull. Take the minimum wage. Now fully part of the centre ground furniture, originally opposed in apocalyptic terms by the right.OblitusSumMe said:
That's the difference between the Left and the Right in the UK. The ablest leaders on the right have been able to win public debate and implement policy in office that has moved the centre ground of political debate further to the right. The ablest leaders on the left have been able to convince their party that they should give up on moving the centre ground in favour of simply occupying office.Casino_Royale said:I am looking forward to the Conservatives sufficiently moving the centre of gravity of political debate in this country such that next time it is fought on different, and far more sensible, ground.
0 -
Nigel has already said he has no intention of leading UKIP into another General Election.I think he will resign as leader after the European referendum and that is the deal which will be put to Carswell and others to keep them on board.The referendum is the event Nigel has been waiting for throughout his political life and he will be asked to concentrate on this while others build the rest of the political offering in the meantime and gain further experience.I really hope Carswell stays on board because he has a huge contribution to make.Latest tweets from him suggests he won't be jumping .0
-
Farage's antics today have seriously damaged that prospect. Worse, they have come on the day when Carswell was starting to set out a reasoned and logical argument for reaching out to the rest of the country. Very bad day for Eurosceptics IMHO.JEO said:
Yet UKIP's goal is to win a referendum where they need to reach out beyond Kippers and potential Kippers. 50% of the electorate in fact. And they need to do this within 18 months apparently. They need to sort themselves out pronto, given the vast array of interests aligned against them.SeanT said:
You're deluded if you think this is gonna seriously damage UKIP. Farage is beloved by his supporters and voters. He is quietly popular with some *potential* kippers too, even as he is loathed and feared by Tories and Labourites.dyedwoolie said:4 million Kippers now demanding they be allowed to unvote for the clown party
What will damage UKIP, is if the Tories, with a majority, swing hard right, seizing the kipper vote. But this is unlikely.
And the big drivers of UKIP success - mass EU immigration, Labour WWC self hatred - show no signs of abating.0 -
Chris Cook referred to 'GQR' http://www.gqrr.com/politicsSquareRoot said:AndyJS said:Amazing: Labour's internal polls had the party up to 7 points lower for years compared to the public polls.
Who the hell was polling for them and why were they putting crap out for public consumption.?0 -
I mentioned that Survation poll a few days ago...the serious question has to be asked why...why didn't they publish? Also, why did the telephone pollsters adjust their models in the final week?HYUFD said:SeanT, Pulpstar Yes Newsnight good on polling, Survation apparently had a poll on Wed night 37-31 Tory they did not publish. Kellner also had some interesting thoughts
We still would have said Survation was an outlier and the telephone pollsters were still out, but still questions need to be asked.
But the bottom line is both Messina / Crosby and Labour's lots had a much better idea of the reality of the situation, and the rest of these pollsters are left looking rather stupid.0 -
Okay how about gay marriage. Would not have happened without civil partnerships, which undeniably moved the centre ground.FalseFlag said:
Minimum wage is so low it does not matter and it doesn't apply to the vast numbers of illegal immigrant workers who are the real drivers of low wages. Typically New Labour smoke and mirrors.Jonathan said:
Such a load of bull. Take the minimum wage. Now fully part of the centre ground furniture, originally opposed in apocalyptic terms by the right.OblitusSumMe said:
That's the difference between the Left and the Right in the UK. The ablest leaders on the right have been able to win public debate and implement policy in office that has moved the centre ground of political debate further to the right. The ablest leaders on the left have been able to convince their party that they should give up on moving the centre ground in favour of simply occupying office.Casino_Royale said:I am looking forward to the Conservatives sufficiently moving the centre of gravity of political debate in this country such that next time it is fought on different, and far more sensible, ground.
0 -
I think he'd still be an MP, much like the Sinn Fein members.SandyRentool said:If Carswell quits UKIP before he is sworn in, does that count as zero seats for betting purposes???
0 -
Actually I thought that one reason TSE was favourable to Carswell as opposed to Reckless was because the former had not made such statements.Stark_Dawning said:
I recall he stated strongly that he wasn't going to defect from the Tories.isam said:
https://twitter.com/ryan_murton/status/597876702224744448Stark_Dawning said:I think Carswell might do something silly here. Not defect back to the Tories (too fantastic) but perhaps resign from UKIP and sit as an independent. He could claim he needs freedom from the shackles of party affiliation in order to articulate his vision of a free-trade, pro-immigration Britain. If he does go down this road, then I suspect the HIV stuff started it; the resignation-that-never-was concluded it.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/5978779871455518720 -
On topic, it's a process story about a minor party, I doubt the voters will care.0
-
-
The SNP didn't have to deal with ever increasing English immigration into Scotland. That will finish the Better Off Out cause long term if it's not slowed.SeanT said:
Noooooooo. UKIP are the SNP circa 1978. UKIP have always been the SNP. From joke to irritant to threat to.....JEO said:
Yet UKIP's goal is to win a referendum where they need to reach out beyond Kippers and potential Kippers. 50% of the electorate in fact. And they need to do this within 18 months apparently. They need to sort themselves out pronto, given the vast array of interests aligned against them.SeanT said:
You're deluded if you think this is gonna seriously damage UKIP. Farage is beloved by his supporters and voters. He is quietly popular with some *potential* kippers too, even as he is loathed and feared by Tories and Labourites.dyedwoolie said:4 million Kippers now demanding they be allowed to unvote for the clown party
What will damage UKIP, is if the Tories, with a majority, swing hard right, seizing the kipper vote. But this is unlikely.
And the big drivers of UKIP success - mass EU immigration, Labour WWC self hatred - show no signs of abating.
I am pretty sure they will lose the upcoming referendum on the EU. But will this finish them off? Hell no. It will fire them up. Lots of those people who voted OUT might switch to UKIP in anger. See what happened to the Nats this year.
Losing a referendum would be the best possible result for UKIP as a political force. Meanwhile, EU immigration will continue.
If UKIP can sort out their party management and weed out the nutters they could easily replace the LDs as THE third protest party - if they haven't already - and maybe, in time, follow the Nats into major party status.0 -
ty never heard of them.. they must be good """Carola said:
Chris Cook referred to 'GQR' http://www.gqrr.com/politicsSquareRoot said:AndyJS said:Amazing: Labour's internal polls had the party up to 7 points lower for years compared to the public polls.
Who the hell was polling for them and why were they putting crap out for public consumption.?0 -
Even the Tories swinging hard right won't seize the Kipper vote since the Kipper vote is a protest vote. It doesn't matter how hard right the Tories go it will never be enough.SeanT said:
You're deluded if you think this is gonna seriously damage UKIP. Farage is beloved by his supporters and voters. He is quietly popular with some *potential* kippers too, even as he is loathed and feared by Tories and Labourites.dyedwoolie said:4 million Kippers now demanding they be allowed to unvote for the clown party
What will damage UKIP, is if the Tories, with a majority, swing hard right, seizing the kipper vote. But this is unlikely.
And the big drivers of UKIP success - mass EU immigration, Labour WWC self hatred - show no signs of abating.
What will soften the Kipper vote is the opposite, if the Tories can manage the economy etc well and through sensible running of the country give people something to believe in then they may not feel the need to protest anymore.
Though I expect the return to two party politics to continue next time - we were supposed to have witnessed the death of two party politics already but despite the seven party debates etc the two party share of the vote increased by 2.2% this time (even after SNP surge). In England the two party share increased by 4.9%0 -
I was at that Birmingham game, standing on the old Spion Kop that ran all the way down one side of St Andrews. The Leeds fans went beserk. I have never seen anything like it. They were charged time after time by mounted police, but kept on throwing whatever they could st whoever they could. They ended up fighting each other. And we all just watched, feeling completely safe but maybe only 70 or 80 yards away. We then walked home through Digbeth to Balsall Heath with no hint of danger. Only heard about the death when we got home, but of course it was the terrible fire that dominated all the TV and radio stations, and the papers the next day. It felt like the end of football. And Heysel and Hillsbrough were still to come.Tykejohnno said:
Thanks for that Nigel and your right on the poor lad who died during the Birminghan/leeds game, condolence to his family on this sad day.nigel4england said:
30 years tykejohnno, a horrible day for all football fans, much sympathy and respect to all Bradford fans,Tykejohnno said:Nick Sutton @suttonnick ·
Tuesday's Guardian front page:
PM hops on the fast-track to EU referendum in 2016
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
Almost unnoticed the same day a 15 year old lad attending a match for the first time died during the riot at Birmingham v Leeds.
One thing we have got right in the last 30 years is safety at football.
I attended the 30th anniversary today in centenary square in Bradford,very moving,especially when all the names were read out with a bell sound after every name.
0 -
Labour leadership: Out of the declared candidates, I'm currently favouring Liz.
Liz v Priti in 2020. Game on!0 -
If you have a physical paper slip for UKIP 0 seats... keep it.SandyRentool said:If Carswell quits UKIP before he is sworn in, does that count as zero seats for betting purposes???
0 -
Harriet Harman cheered after telling Labour MPs not to listen to Mandelson apparently0
-
Baby Boomer Blair, product of the 60s.Jonathan said:
Okay how about gay marriage. Would not have happened without civil partnerships, which undeniably moved the centre ground.FalseFlag said:
Minimum wage is so low it does not matter and it doesn't apply to the vast numbers of illegal immigrant workers who are the real drivers of low wages. Typically New Labour smoke and mirrors.Jonathan said:
Such a load of bull. Take the minimum wage. Now fully part of the centre ground furniture, originally opposed in apocalyptic terms by the right.OblitusSumMe said:
That's the difference between the Left and the Right in the UK. The ablest leaders on the right have been able to win public debate and implement policy in office that has moved the centre ground of political debate further to the right. The ablest leaders on the left have been able to convince their party that they should give up on moving the centre ground in favour of simply occupying office.Casino_Royale said:I am looking forward to the Conservatives sufficiently moving the centre of gravity of political debate in this country such that next time it is fought on different, and far more sensible, ground.
New left ideas originated in the 20s to 30s with Franz Boas, Herbert Marcuse and the rest of the Frankfurt School, Sigmund Freud, George Lukacs and sex education in Hungary, Trotsky etc.
Ideas have consequences. Politicians follow the zeitgeist, even Thatcher and the Chicago school.0 -
Newsnight: "Harman cheered after telling PLP not to listen to Mandelson..."0
-
Stella launching a bid on Newsnight ?0
-
The Eurosceptics need to aim for much more than 51% of the voters too. You will never win all of your target audience, this is why Labour only got 31% from infamously targeting 35%Richard_Tyndall said:
Farage's antics today have seriously damaged that prospect. Worse, they have come on the day when Carswell was starting to set out a reasoned and logical argument for reaching out to the rest of the country. Very bad day for Eurosceptics IMHO.JEO said:
Yet UKIP's goal is to win a referendum where they need to reach out beyond Kippers and potential Kippers. 50% of the electorate in fact. And they need to do this within 18 months apparently. They need to sort themselves out pronto, given the vast array of interests aligned against them.SeanT said:
You're deluded if you think this is gonna seriously damage UKIP. Farage is beloved by his supporters and voters. He is quietly popular with some *potential* kippers too, even as he is loathed and feared by Tories and Labourites.dyedwoolie said:4 million Kippers now demanding they be allowed to unvote for the clown party
What will damage UKIP, is if the Tories, with a majority, swing hard right, seizing the kipper vote. But this is unlikely.
And the big drivers of UKIP success - mass EU immigration, Labour WWC self hatred - show no signs of abating.
To win 51% sceptics need to aim for targeting at least 60% or more as they won't hoover up all swing voters at the margins if they just go for 51%.0 -
I find it hard to understand. Canvassing is not a science, but when youve done enough it and you tally up your constituency wide information, you can spot the trend.Scott_P said:
That matches the story that Labour had really bad internal polling, but decided not to tell any of the ground troops or other campaign staff.Carola said:'Labour's election pollster says public polls "showed a much more favourable position for Labour than we were finding in our internal data" both before the campaign and during it.'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32606713
Awesome decision...
It might be that Labour's IT system prevents their local workers from accessing constituency wide information, though it would seem ludicrous to do so.
Keeping an iron grip on information from outside their own constituency is probably a good idea. The sheer scale of the data will indicate what was happening.0 -
No it would have happened. Look across the globe, there has been a step-change in acceptance of gays as equals to everyone else. Preventing their marriage is a lost argument globally and not just in the UK.Jonathan said:
Okay how about gay marriage. Would not have happened without civil partnerships, which undeniably moved the centre ground.FalseFlag said:
Minimum wage is so low it does not matter and it doesn't apply to the vast numbers of illegal immigrant workers who are the real drivers of low wages. Typically New Labour smoke and mirrors.Jonathan said:
Such a load of bull. Take the minimum wage. Now fully part of the centre ground furniture, originally opposed in apocalyptic terms by the right.OblitusSumMe said:
That's the difference between the Left and the Right in the UK. The ablest leaders on the right have been able to win public debate and implement policy in office that has moved the centre ground of political debate further to the right. The ablest leaders on the left have been able to convince their party that they should give up on moving the centre ground in favour of simply occupying office.Casino_Royale said:I am looking forward to the Conservatives sufficiently moving the centre of gravity of political debate in this country such that next time it is fought on different, and far more sensible, ground.
0 -
I think that misunderstands two key factors.Philip_Thompson said:
Even the Tories swinging hard right won't seize the Kipper vote since the Kipper vote is a protest vote. It doesn't matter how hard right the Tories go it will never be enough.SeanT said:
You're deluded if you think this is gonna seriously damage UKIP. Farage is beloved by his supporters and voters. He is quietly popular with some *potential* kippers too, even as he is loathed and feared by Tories and Labourites.dyedwoolie said:4 million Kippers now demanding they be allowed to unvote for the clown party
What will damage UKIP, is if the Tories, with a majority, swing hard right, seizing the kipper vote. But this is unlikely.
And the big drivers of UKIP success - mass EU immigration, Labour WWC self hatred - show no signs of abating.
What will soften the Kipper vote is the opposite, if the Tories can manage the economy etc well and through sensible running of the country give people something to believe in then they may not feel the need to protest anymore.
Though I expect the return to two party politics to continue next time - we were supposed to have witnessed the death of two party politics already but despite the seven party debates etc the two party share of the vote increased by 2.2% this time (even after SNP surge). In England the two party share increased by 4.9%
Firstly that many of those who voted UKIP did not come from the Tory party in the fist place so there is no reason for them to return to them.
Secondly those of us who did come from the Tory party left because of Cameron and have hardened our view of him since leaving. He cannot insult huge numbers of people and then just expect them to flock back. The Tory party may well get back some of those who left but it won't happen as long as Cameron or his ilk are in charge.0 -
Indeed. I'm sure he's not about to resign, but the way he's described how awful the Tories were before he left I actually lost some respect for him, as it made his denials about leaving beforehand, and defenses of the party, that of a man who was either lying then or lying now about how bad they were, as if they were like he says, he would have left long before he did.Stark_Dawning said:
I recall he stated strongly that he wasn't going to defect from the Tories.isam said:
https://twitter.com/ryan_murton/status/597876702224744448Stark_Dawning said:I think Carswell might do something silly here. Not defect back to the Tories (too fantastic) but perhaps resign from UKIP and sit as an independent. He could claim he needs freedom from the shackles of party affiliation in order to articulate his vision of a free-trade, pro-immigration Britain. If he does go down this road, then I suspect the HIV stuff started it; the resignation-that-never-was concluded it.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/5978779871455518720 -
I thought there was something slightly aristocratic about Stella Creasy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stella_Creasy0 -
Stella rules herself out!0
-
Creasy not standing...
Going for Deputy, apparently0 -
Stella Creasy just said not running for leader on Newsnight, but may consider Deputy.0
-
Stella may run for deputy, however...0
-
Look at the poor buggers losing their jobs at the post firm today. Because they're on zero hours contracts they have lost their jobs instantly, making a mockery of the law on notice periods for redundancy. Similarly for the delivery firm at Christmas where the workers were self-employed so will get nothing as they are at the back of the queue for insolvency payouts, behind the parent company for the firm who lent it money.Jonathan said:
Such a load of bull. Take the minimum wage. Now fully part of the centre ground furniture, originally opposed in apocalyptic terms by the right.OblitusSumMe said:
That's the difference between the Left and the Right in the UK. The ablest leaders on the right have been able to win public debate and implement policy in office that has moved the centre ground of political debate further to the right. The ablest leaders on the left have been able to convince their party that they should give up on moving the centre ground in favour of simply occupying office.Casino_Royale said:I am looking forward to the Conservatives sufficiently moving the centre of gravity of political debate in this country such that next time it is fought on different, and far more sensible, ground.
The centre ground in employment relations has shifted further to the right despite the minimum wage.0 -
This is why I have a hatred for some of the leeds fans which I call scum.SouthamObserver said:
I was at that Birmingham game, standing on the old Spion Kop that ran all the way down one side of St Andrews. The Leeds fans went beserk. I have never seen anything like it. They were charged time after time by mounted police, but kept on throwing whatever they could st whoever they could. They ended up fighting each other. And we all just watched, feeling completely safe but maybe only 70 or 80 yards away. We then walked home through Digbeth to Balsall Heath with no hint of danger. Only heard about the death when we got home, but of course it was the terrible fire that dominated all the TV and radio stations, and the papers the next day. It felt like the end of football. And Heysel and Hillsbrough were still to come.Tykejohnno said:
Thanks for that Nigel and your right on the poor lad who died during the Birminghan/leeds game, condolence to his family on this sad day.nigel4england said:
30 years tykejohnno, a horrible day for all football fans, much sympathy and respect to all Bradford fans,Tykejohnno said:Nick Sutton @suttonnick ·
Tuesday's Guardian front page:
PM hops on the fast-track to EU referendum in 2016
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
Almost unnoticed the same day a 15 year old lad attending a match for the first time died during the riot at Birmingham v Leeds.
One thing we have got right in the last 30 years is safety at football.
I attended the 30th anniversary today in centenary square in Bradford,very moving,especially when all the names were read out with a bell sound after every name.
The season after I was at odsal stadium, Bradford city v leeds and yet another riot from the leeds fans after going one nil down.
Remember setting the chip van on fire leeds fans ,so soon after the Bradford fire disaster you scum.
0 -
Now she looks OKfoxinsoxuk said:Stella Creasy just said not running for leader on Newsnight, but may consider Deputy.
0 -
Wiki helpfully points out she is related to Polly Toynbee, through the Earl of Carlisle, no less.AndyJS said:I thought there was something slightly aristocratic about Stella Creasy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stella_Creasy0 -
Watford30 Harman is not going to be leader though is she, and Chuka is Mandelson's favoured candidate0
-
Not quite.Richard_Tyndall said:
Actually I thought that one reason TSE was favourable to Carswell as opposed to Reckless was because the former had not made such statements.Stark_Dawning said:
I recall he stated strongly that he wasn't going to defect from the Tories.isam said:
https://twitter.com/ryan_murton/status/597876702224744448Stark_Dawning said:I think Carswell might do something silly here. Not defect back to the Tories (too fantastic) but perhaps resign from UKIP and sit as an independent. He could claim he needs freedom from the shackles of party affiliation in order to articulate his vision of a free-trade, pro-immigration Britain. If he does go down this road, then I suspect the HIV stuff started it; the resignation-that-never-was concluded it.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/597877987145551872
Carswell wasn't asked about defecting, Reckless was asked shortly before defecting if he was and he said no.
I don't have an issue with him lying to the whips, as that's what defectors do, it was the timing of the defection of Reckless, which was designed to destabilise the Tory conference that irked me so.
Which was greatly ironic, as the days leading up to the UKIP conference, Farage et al, had whinged and moaned that the Tories had tried to overshadow UKIP's conference by recalling Parliament to discuss military action against Islamic State.
Carswell on the other hand, chose a time that wouldn't damage the Tory party too much, he said if he defected later, it would have clashed with the Indyref/Conference season.0 -
There is a simply rule with anything IT-related. Garbage in, garbage out.notme said:
I find it hard to understand. Canvassing is not a science, but when youve done enough it and you tally up your constituency wide information, you can spot the trend.Scott_P said:
That matches the story that Labour had really bad internal polling, but decided not to tell any of the ground troops or other campaign staff.Carola said:'Labour's election pollster says public polls "showed a much more favourable position for Labour than we were finding in our internal data" both before the campaign and during it.'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32606713
Awesome decision...
It might be that Labour's IT system prevents their local workers from accessing constituency wide information, though it would seem ludicrous to do so.
Keeping an iron grip on information from outside their own constituency is probably a good idea. The sheer scale of the data will indicate what was happening.
I shared my experience of being canvassed earlier on this site. I live in one of the most marginal constituencies in the country (Warrington South) and in one of the most Labour wards of that constituency. Last year for better words a gang of about a dozen men in red rosettes flocked to the estate and started knocking on all the doors. They were very forceful and clearly expected to be told we were Labour voters. I took great pleasure in telling them I'm Tory, just as I do in telling Jehovah's that I'm an atheist ... but that was visibly a shock to the system. I don't think I was the first Tory to be canvassed, but I suspect I was more unique in that group to admit to being so.
I think Labour fully expected to win here - they were predicted to. Instead the swing was TO the Tories and away from Labour.
If you go to people's doors forcefully expecting and almost forcing people to say they're Labour to you then they either won't say or will tell you want you want to be told. If you want to know the truth, you need to listen more and be more polite and softer.0 -
Nothing will convince you that you were wrongStark_Dawning said:
I recall he stated strongly that he wasn't going to defect from the Tories.isam said:
https://twitter.com/ryan_murton/status/597876702224744448Stark_Dawning said:I think Carswell might do something silly here. Not defect back to the Tories (too fantastic) but perhaps resign from UKIP and sit as an independent. He could claim he needs freedom from the shackles of party affiliation in order to articulate his vision of a free-trade, pro-immigration Britain. If he does go down this road, then I suspect the HIV stuff started it; the resignation-that-never-was concluded it.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/597877987145551872
Fair enough0 -
Rachel / Stella Dream Ticket????Sunil_Prasannan said:
Now she looks OKfoxinsoxuk said:Stella Creasy just said not running for leader on Newsnight, but may consider Deputy.
0 -
Just wondering if it was strategically sound not to tell your own troops what the state of play was re the polls. If it was me and I found out after, I would have been fecking angry. Dissembling to your own troops...
0 -
Kind of confused as to what the difference is between that and the tens of thousands of consultants who can all lose their jobs at a moments notice. It has ever been thus.OblitusSumMe said:
Look at the poor buggers losing their jobs at the post firm today. Because they're on zero hours contracts they have lost their jobs instantly, making a mockery of the law on notice periods for redundancy. Similarly for the delivery firm at Christmas where the workers were self-employed so will get nothing as they are at the back of the queue for insolvency payouts, behind the parent company for the firm who lent it money.Jonathan said:
Such a load of bull. Take the minimum wage. Now fully part of the centre ground furniture, originally opposed in apocalyptic terms by the right.OblitusSumMe said:
That's the difference between the Left and the Right in the UK. The ablest leaders on the right have been able to win public debate and implement policy in office that has moved the centre ground of political debate further to the right. The ablest leaders on the left have been able to convince their party that they should give up on moving the centre ground in favour of simply occupying office.Casino_Royale said:I am looking forward to the Conservatives sufficiently moving the centre of gravity of political debate in this country such that next time it is fought on different, and far more sensible, ground.
The centre ground in employment relations has shifted further to the right despite the minimum wage.0 -
The tories will be delighted hearing that..HYUFD said:Harriet Harman cheered after telling Labour MPs not to listen to Mandelson apparently
0 -
Stella out. But can someone explain what happens if Kendall or another woman wins leader?0
-
FU Indeed, a full reexamination of polling methods and an inquest needs to be undertaken0
-
The old joke - What is the difference between Staff and Contract? Three weeks notice.Richard_Tyndall said:
Kind of confused as to what the difference is between that and the tens of thousands of consultants who can all lose their jobs at a moments notice. It has ever been thus.OblitusSumMe said:
Look at the poor buggers losing their jobs at the post firm today. Because they're on zero hours contracts they have lost their jobs instantly, making a mockery of the law on notice periods for redundancy. Similarly for the delivery firm at Christmas where the workers were self-employed so will get nothing as they are at the back of the queue for insolvency payouts, behind the parent company for the firm who lent it money.Jonathan said:
Such a load of bull. Take the minimum wage. Now fully part of the centre ground furniture, originally opposed in apocalyptic terms by the right.OblitusSumMe said:
That's the difference between the Left and the Right in the UK. The ablest leaders on the right have been able to win public debate and implement policy in office that has moved the centre ground of political debate further to the right. The ablest leaders on the left have been able to convince their party that they should give up on moving the centre ground in favour of simply occupying office.Casino_Royale said:I am looking forward to the Conservatives sufficiently moving the centre of gravity of political debate in this country such that next time it is fought on different, and far more sensible, ground.
The centre ground in employment relations has shifted further to the right despite the minimum wage.0 -
PT Unless EU ref is a massive In vote or an Out UKIP will likely get a boost from it0
-
I'm a Chelsea fan, first game was Easter 1963, I played every week and went to games when I could, after a permanent injury in 1978 I went to every game home and away until about 1986. I was at St Andrews at a night game when we lost 5-1, it was chaos that night. Some of the sights I saw were appalling during that time, there seemed to be a riot at Chelsea games every other week, London derbies were particularly bad.SouthamObserver said:
I was at that Birmingham game, standing on the old Spion Kop that ran all the way down one side of St Andrews. The Leeds fans went beserk. I have never seen anything like it. They were charged time after time by mounted police, but kept on throwing whatever they could st whoever they could. They ended up fighting each other. And we all just watched, feeling completely safe but maybe only 70 or 80 yards away. We then walked home through Digbeth to Balsall Heath with no hint of danger. Only heard about the death when we got home, but of course it was the terrible fire that dominated all the TV and radio stations, and the papers the next day. It felt like the end of football. And Heysel and Hillsbrough were still to come.Tykejohnno said:
Thanks for that Nigel and your right on the poor lad who died during the Birminghan/leeds game, condolence to his family on this sad day.nigel4england said:
30 years tykejohnno, a horrible day for all football fans, much sympathy and respect to all Bradford fans,Tykejohnno said:Nick Sutton @suttonnick ·
Tuesday's Guardian front page:
PM hops on the fast-track to EU referendum in 2016
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
Almost unnoticed the same day a 15 year old lad attending a match for the first time died during the riot at Birmingham v Leeds.
One thing we have got right in the last 30 years is safety at football.
I attended the 30th anniversary today in centenary square in Bradford,very moving,especially when all the names were read out with a bell sound after every name.
It is so much better now I feel safe taking my grandsons to matches, the authorities have done very well in making it safe, particularly when you see what is going on around Europe.0 -
Indeed. So as I say Carswell had not been denying he would defect. He simply hadn't been asked.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not quite.Richard_Tyndall said:
Actually I thought that one reason TSE was favourable to Carswell as opposed to Reckless was because the former had not made such statements.Stark_Dawning said:
I recall he stated strongly that he wasn't going to defect from the Tories.isam said:
https://twitter.com/ryan_murton/status/597876702224744448Stark_Dawning said:I think Carswell might do something silly here. Not defect back to the Tories (too fantastic) but perhaps resign from UKIP and sit as an independent. He could claim he needs freedom from the shackles of party affiliation in order to articulate his vision of a free-trade, pro-immigration Britain. If he does go down this road, then I suspect the HIV stuff started it; the resignation-that-never-was concluded it.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/597877987145551872
Carswell wasn't asked about defecting, Reckless was asked shortly before defecting if he was and he said no.
I don't have an issue with him lying to the whips, as that's what defectors do, it was the timing of the defection of Reckless, which was designed to destabilise the Tory conference that irked me so.
Which was greatly ironic, as the days leading up to the UKIP conference, Farage et al, had whinged and moaned that the Tories had tried to overshadow UKIP's conference by recalling Parliament to discuss military action against Islamic State.
Carswell on the other hand, chose a time that wouldn't damage the Tory party too much, he said if he defected later, it would have clashed with the Indyref/Conference season.0 -
"I don’t expect to be standing for Parliament again – unless something unexpected arises, I think it makes sense to focus on my job as Director of Policy of Cruelty Free International, the organisation that works to phase out experiments on animals around the world."franklyn said:Can we confirm that Nick Palmer will not be standing again?
http://www.nickpalmer.org.uk/0 -
I volunteered and helped the party for the first time as I was worried we were going to lose. I expected to lose this seat and was motivated to avoid it. Not sure how many others felt the same.SquareRoot said:Just wondering if it was strategically sound not to tell your own troops what the state of play was re the polls. If it was me and I found out after, I would have been fecking angry. Dissembling to your own troops...
You don't want to shatter confidence, but you don't want people to be cocky or relax either. There is a balance of being an underdog that can win which helps motivate people I think.0 -
The guy next to Stella is talking some real sense, Labour should really listen to him
. 0 -
Labour NEC member suspended for backing Rahman.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/11/labour-christine-shawcroft-suspended-lutfur-rahman-tower-hamlets0 -
The issue of prisoners' votes will be an interesting test for this government.0
-
Is that a real job or a quango?rottenborough said:
"I don’t expect to be standing for Parliament again – unless something unexpected arises, I think it makes sense to focus on my job as Director of Policy of Cruelty Free International, the organisation that works to phase out experiments on animals around the world."franklyn said:Can we confirm that Nick Palmer will not be standing again?
http://www.nickpalmer.org.uk/0 -
This newsnight coverage is awful. I hate to call bias - but they're really attacking the Tories.0
-
One can dreamSandyRentool said:
Rachel / Stella Dream Ticket????Sunil_Prasannan said:
Now she looks OKfoxinsoxuk said:Stella Creasy just said not running for leader on Newsnight, but may consider Deputy.
0 -
SeanT Squareroot Mandy may win in the end, his favoured candidate is Chuka and I expect him to just edge out Yvette Cooper with Burnham and maybe Kendall battling it out for 3rd0
-
Yes, always a bad sign to listen to people who masterminded three elections in a row, two of them with thundering majorities.SquareRoot said:
The tories will be delighted hearing that..HYUFD said:Harriet Harman cheered after telling Labour MPs not to listen to Mandelson apparently
0 -
They could re-live their schooldays. They were at the same school at the same time. A comprehensive too...SandyRentool said:Labour leadership: Out of the declared candidates, I'm currently favouring Liz.
Liz v Priti in 2020. Game on!0 -
Amusing images of new SNP MPs trying to buy a travelcard for the tube on newsnight0
-
First day at school for young Mhairi xD0
