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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The problem is they believed their own propaganda about winning the election. The view from Camden, Islington and Hackney was that everything was set fair for a Labour victory of one sort or another. Of course the opinion polls assisted with that delusion.
    SeanT said:

    Labour is having a breakdown, a kind of self harming sociopathic episode. See here -

    (Apologies for the expletives, but they are in the original and I cannot asterisk them away) -

    @m_maclennan
    Strong words, but well expressed on why those strong words are used– Dear Tory voter: I can call you a cunt if I want http://www.thestepfordstudent.co.uk/dear-tory-voter-i-can-call-you-a-cunt-if-i-want/

    And check the comments below this Guardian article on Lord Sugar quitting Labour



    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/may/11/alan-sugar-resigns-from-labour-party-over-shift-to-left#comments

    "Alan Sugar, along with right wing media and the right wing voting public are all a bunch of illiterate, tight fisted scum"

    "Who gives a shit what that barrow-boy thinks or does?"

    "He's really true too his working class roots. Another piece of excrement like Green who has only one interest in life. More money."

    and my favourite

    "Greedy capitalist kicking his comrades when already down on the floor. Always knew you big business types would try to destroy Labour from within if you did not have your way.

    We will be back in 2020 and the traditional Labour heartlands and working people of Britain will then apologise for how they let down labour this election,"

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    edited May 2015
    SeanT said:

    Labour is having a breakdown, a kind of self harming sociopathic episode. See here -

    (Apologies for the expletives, but they are in the original and I cannot asterisk them away) -

    @m_maclennan
    Strong words, but well expressed on why those strong words are used– Dear Tory voter: I can call you a cunt if I want http://www.thestepfordstudent.co.uk/dear-tory-voter-i-can-call-you-a-cunt-if-i-want/

    And check the comments below this Guardian article on Lord Sugar quitting Labour



    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/may/11/alan-sugar-resigns-from-labour-party-over-shift-to-left#comments

    "Alan Sugar, along with right wing media and the right wing voting public are all a bunch of illiterate, tight fisted scum"

    "Who gives a shit what that barrow-boy thinks or does?"

    "He's really true too his working class roots. Another piece of excrement like Green who has only one interest in life. More money."

    and my favourite

    "Greedy capitalist kicking his comrades when already down on the floor. Always knew you big business types would try to destroy Labour from within if you did not have your way.

    We will be back in 2020 and the traditional Labour heartlands and working people of Britain will then apologise for how they let down labour this election,"

    It's very entertaining. Here's a few more - just from Rebecca Roache who wrote THAT blogpost on de-friending all Tories:

    https://twitter.com/matthaig1/status/596593823725264896

    https://twitter.com/rebecca_roache/status/596539428178403328

    https://twitter.com/valerieoriordan/status/596555391619735552
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    AndyJS said:

    One thing that may have puzzled voters in Middle England is the left's obsession with "food banks". Many people will have been asking themselves why people need to go to food banks when they receive relatively generous welfare benefit payments.

    I would like to see an objective non-partisan analysis of food banks, their growth and who uses them. And why.

    I recognise the Left's answer is "welfare cuts", but I think there might be more to it than that.
    Spiked did a good article on foodbanks here: http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/food-banks-time-for-a-bit-of-perspective/16902#.VVD-PBBwbqA

    Banging on about foodbanks appeals only to the already converted. The rest of us are just bewildered. It was never going to gain a swing voter.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Dair said:

    calum said:


    When I say low 20's that's where the constituency vote is headed. I'd agree that the regional list vote could indeed drop below 20%, unfortunately for SLAB the regional split on their vote could be quiet brutal to their chances under the AMS system. I don't think SLAB SLID and SCUP have focused on how painful Holyrood 2016 get as they get caught in a SNP, Greens and UKIP pincer movement for regional seats.

    From memory, the per seat requirement on the Scottish List works out about 8.5% per seat.

    If SLAB score 15% on the List nationally then in the HIghlands and North East they could be below 8.5% and get no seats.. They will struggle to get three seats in Glasgow, West and Central, two is almost certain. They will get 1 seat in Lothian, Mid and Fife, Lothian, South.

    I'm making that 10 seats as the floor. From 33.
    I think the SNP surge has a bit more to run and will likely level out at 55%, as long as the guys in Westminster behave themselves, hopefully this support will hold up until next year. The Greens have a good chance of getting into the top 3 parties.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited May 2015

    It's clear that Cameron is trying to do three things with his reshuffle:

    (1) Continue the modernisation pitch, by promoting strong female and ethnic minority Conservative talent and thus diversifying the look and feel of his government
    (2) Bring the Right on board
    (3) Cement George Osborne's position

    So far, he seems to have done a pretty good job on all three counts.

    And in the process drive fairness and social awareness ultimately taking any space a labour party will want to claim as its own. As long as DC takes immediate control of the agenda by the time labour have anything like a credible story they will be too late. Indeed the internal discord in labour between left and right could well be leading to a comprehensive split and the dissolution of labour as we know it
    Yes. The biggest problem the Conservatives have is that they are seen as heartless and uncaring about social injustice. T

    The good news is that the parliamentary party recognises this, and how their opponents use it to damage them.

    If Cameron can (at least) neutralise this caricature of them by the Left amongst most floating voters (a big if) then a similar victory in GE2020 is perfectly possible.
    This describes Cameron's detoxification programme leading up to 2010, which was then wrecked by Lansley, IDS, and to a lesser extent by Gove. Let us see how it plays out this time. Declaring war on the BBC and human rights is not a promising start.

  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    I'm guessing Ed and Nick aren't going to be forced into un-resigning?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    AndyJS said:

    One thing that may have puzzled voters in Middle England is the left's obsession with "food banks". Many people will have been asking themselves why people need to go to food banks when they receive relatively generous welfare benefit payments.

    I would like to see an objective non-partisan analysis of food banks, their growth and who uses them. And why.

    I recognise the Left's answer is "welfare cuts", but I think there might be more to it than that.
    Spiked did a good article on foodbanks here: http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/food-banks-time-for-a-bit-of-perspective/16902#.VVD-PBBwbqA

    Banging on about foodbanks appeals only to the already converted. The rest of us are just bewildered. It was never going to gain a swing voter.
    Thanks. Will take a look.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    PS. Message for the Left: all that sub-human bile and abuse you throw at Cameron and the Conservatives make me think they must be doing something right, to annoy you so much.

    Keep it up. You might firm up all the floating UKIP voters in the Conservative column for good.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    edited May 2015
    Freggles said:

    AndyJS said:

    One thing that may have puzzled voters in Middle England is the left's obsession with "food banks". Many people will have been asking themselves why people need to go to food banks when they receive relatively generous welfare benefit payments.

    Generally because of sanctions which operate on a 'gotcha' system. Miss a signing on appointment because you had a job interview? Goodbye benefits. Brother dies and funeral is on danger day as job centre appointment? Too bad.
    Any evidence of that apart from rumour and innuendo..... Both the examples given above would automatically be reversed on appeal with it noted against the advisor who issued the sanction unless they can show that that information wasn't given to them early enough...
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    SeanT said:

    Labour is having a breakdown, a kind of self harming sociopathic episode. See here -

    (Apologies for the expletives, but they are in the original and I cannot asterisk them away) -

    @m_maclennan
    Strong words, but well expressed on why those strong words are used– Dear Tory voter: I can call you a cunt if I want http://www.thestepfordstudent.co.uk/dear-tory-voter-i-can-call-you-a-cunt-if-i-want/

    And check the comments below this Guardian article on Lord Sugar quitting Labour



    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/may/11/alan-sugar-resigns-from-labour-party-over-shift-to-left#comments

    "Alan Sugar, along with right wing media and the right wing voting public are all a bunch of illiterate, tight fisted scum"

    "Who gives a shit what that barrow-boy thinks or does?"

    "He's really true too his working class roots. Another piece of excrement like Green who has only one interest in life. More money."

    and my favourite

    "Greedy capitalist kicking his comrades when already down on the floor. Always knew you big business types would try to destroy Labour from within if you did not have your way.

    We will be back in 2020 and the traditional Labour heartlands and working people of Britain will then apologise for how they let down labour this election,"

    Wow from working class hero to "Scum", in just a few short hours!

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @Casino_Royale Secret Tories?? Well with friends like her, no wonder! :open_mouth:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    It's clear that Cameron is trying to do three things with his reshuffle:

    (1) Continue the modernisation pitch, by promoting strong female and ethnic minority Conservative talent and thus diversifying the look and feel of his government
    (2) Bring the Right on board
    (3) Cement George Osborne's position

    So far, he seems to have done a pretty good job on all three counts.

    And in the process drive fairness and social awareness ultimately taking any space a labour party will want to claim as its own. As long as DC takes immediate control of the agenda by the time labour have anything like a credible story they will be too late. Indeed the internal discord in labour between left and right could well be leading to a comprehensive split and the dissolution of labour as we know it
    Yes. The biggest problem the Conservatives have is that they are seen as heartless and uncaring about social injustice. T

    The good news is that the parliamentary party recognises this, and how their opponents use it to damage them.

    If Cameron can (at least) neutralise this caricature of them by the Left amongst most floating voters (a big if) then a similar victory in GE2020 is perfectly possible.
    This describes Cameron's detoxification programme leading up to 2010, which was then wrecked by Lansley, IDS, and to a lesser extent by Gove. Let us see how it plays out this time. Declaring war on the BBC and human rights is not a promising start.

    No. Conservative modernisation does not mean abandoning all Conservative policy and Conservative reforms.

    It means finding Conservative answers to the challenges of social justice, and adopting a tone and language that demonstrates they genuinely care and have their hearts in the right place.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited May 2015
    LucyJones said:

    I'm guessing Ed and Nick aren't going to be forced into un-resigning?


    Don't know. But I bet there are some Lefties on here who wish they could do some un-posting.

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    calum said:

    Dair said:

    calum said:


    When I say low 20's that's where the constituency vote is headed. I'd agree that the regional list vote could indeed drop below 20%, unfortunately for SLAB the regional split on their vote could be quiet brutal to their chances under the AMS system. I don't think SLAB SLID and SCUP have focused on how painful Holyrood 2016 get as they get caught in a SNP, Greens and UKIP pincer movement for regional seats.

    From memory, the per seat requirement on the Scottish List works out about 8.5% per seat.

    If SLAB score 15% on the List nationally then in the HIghlands and North East they could be below 8.5% and get no seats.. They will struggle to get three seats in Glasgow, West and Central, two is almost certain. They will get 1 seat in Lothian, Mid and Fife, Lothian, South.

    I'm making that 10 seats as the floor. From 33.
    I think the SNP surge has a bit more to run and will likely level out at 55%, as long as the guys in Westminster behave themselves, hopefully this support will hold up until next year. The Greens have a good chance of getting into the top 3 parties.
    If the Greens pitch it right they could score a lot of votes off Labour, if there is a significant SNP to Green List Tactical vote, Labour could really squeal. The more I hear Labour squealing the happier I feel.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    @ Casino Royale and SeanT:

    I remember the words sung to the tune of the red flag:

    "The working class can kiss my arse,
    I've got the foreman's job at last!"

    The politics of aspiration...
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    SeanT and Casino_Royale,

    What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be to be British. I had always thought the accusation of being unpatriotic was an unfair smear from those on the hard right, as all the Labour voters I know in real life are very proud of their country. But many of these people seem to be openly attacking this country and its people. If they express this view in pubs and bars, it doesn't surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    edited May 2015

    Just reading comments from Tim Farron on the BBC news website. He says the Tories fought their election campaign negatively based on fear.

    Bloody hypocrite, did he not hear or himself participate in the Tory "baby-eaters, cuts and poverty" scare stories the Lib Dems put about on a daily basis, including from the Leader of the party who presumably was still harbouring hopes of getting back into bed with Cameron et al in Coalition V2.0?

    Or is that guff not "fear" because it was, in their leftie minds, actually true?

    Fearmongering you say :D ?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wG6Jm5aOWN0

    *Cough* Lib Dems *Cough*
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Freggles Wrong, If you give your adviser at the JobCentre an email with advance notice you have an interview then they will simply move your signing on appointment
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Plato said:

    @Casino_Royale Secret Tories?? Well with friends like her, no wonder! :open_mouth:

    She's clearly someone deeply insecure about her own beliefs and principles and can't handle an opposing point of view that challenges them.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    It's clear that Cameron is trying to do three things with his reshuffle:

    (1) Continue the modernisation pitch, by promoting strong female and ethnic minority Conservative talent and thus diversifying the look and feel of his government
    (2) Bring the Right on board
    (3) Cement George Osborne's position

    So far, he seems to have done a pretty good job on all three counts.

    And in the process drive fairness and social awareness ultimately taking any space a labour party will want to claim as its own. As long as DC takes immediate control of the agenda by the time labour have anything like a credible story they will be too late. Indeed the internal discord in labour between left and right could well be leading to a comprehensive split and the dissolution of labour as we know it
    Yes. The biggest problem the Conservatives have is that they are seen as heartless and uncaring about social injustice. T

    The good news is that the parliamentary party recognises this, and how their opponents use it to damage them.

    If Cameron can (at least) neutralise this caricature of them by the Left amongst most floating voters (a big if) then a similar victory in GE2020 is perfectly possible.
    This describes Cameron's detoxification programme leading up to 2010, which was then wrecked by Lansley, IDS, and to a lesser extent by Gove. Let us see how it plays out this time. Declaring war on the BBC and human rights is not a promising start.

    Nobody is declaring war on the BBC or human rights. We are looking at how to lessen the burden of the licence fee and its draconian enforcement, and improving human rights law so it is better rooted in the British context.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    JEO said:

    SeanT and Casino_Royale,

    What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be to be British. I had always thought the accusation of being unpatriotic was an unfair smear from those on the hard right, as all the Labour voters I know in real life are very proud of their country. But many of these people seem to be openly attacking this country and its people. If they express this view in pubs and bars, it doesn't surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.

    It's not really a surprise. George Orwell was writing in the 1940s about how British lefties disliked their own country.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Now that Farage has won this election for the Tories, who do Kippers think he'll win the next one for?
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    HYUFD said:

    Calum Many Scottish Tories will vote Labour at Holyrood with their first vote and Tory on the list to try and stop Sturgeon getting another majority and potentially another referendum. At Holyrood the battle will be Labour v SNP, not Labour v Tory as it was at Westminster, outside of the more Tory borders

    I think the mainstream party negativity and the SNP feel good factor will likely push the SNP surge up to around 55%, whether this can be maintained will be interesting. I think the last poll I saw indicated that 95% of Westminster SNP supporters were intending to vote SNP next year. Given these levels of support and the ground resources the SNP have, I think the tactical Tory voters will really struggle to combat the SNP tsunami. They might save the odd SLAB constituency seat but due to the vagaries of the AMS system this could end up hurting SLAB's chances at a regional level, the law of unintended consequences in action.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    Dair said:

    calum said:

    Dair said:

    calum said:


    When I say low 20's that's where the constituency vote is headed. I'd agree that the regional list vote could indeed drop below 20%, unfortunately for SLAB the regional split on their vote could be quiet brutal to their chances under the AMS system. I don't think SLAB SLID and SCUP have focused on how painful Holyrood 2016 get as they get caught in a SNP, Greens and UKIP pincer movement for regional seats.

    From memory, the per seat requirement on the Scottish List works out about 8.5% per seat.

    If SLAB score 15% on the List nationally then in the HIghlands and North East they could be below 8.5% and get no seats.. They will struggle to get three seats in Glasgow, West and Central, two is almost certain. They will get 1 seat in Lothian, Mid and Fife, Lothian, South.

    I'm making that 10 seats as the floor. From 33.
    I think the SNP surge has a bit more to run and will likely level out at 55%, as long as the guys in Westminster behave themselves, hopefully this support will hold up until next year. The Greens have a good chance of getting into the top 3 parties.
    If the Greens pitch it right they could score a lot of votes off Labour, if there is a significant SNP to Green List Tactical vote, Labour could really squeal. The more I hear Labour squealing the happier I feel.
    And the smaller they get the less point there is for LDs and Tories to vote tactically for them rather than for their own parties (or each other and/or UKIP, actually).

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    BigG By 2020 Cameron will no longer be leader and the aftermath of EU ref will be very significant
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    What gets me about these rabid Tory haters is that they all have names which sound posh as feck and are from parts of the country where a garage costs more than my house.

    I'm a bona fide knuckle-scraper from a pit village in the valleys but I can see both sides of the argument. These posh Harriet's and Charlotte double-barrelled luvvies are unrepentant in their prejudices. Weird.

    The two most militant Tory-haters in the business I work for were both educated in Oxford. Smart, lovely, clever and worldly boys. They just hate Tories.

    They will listen to nothing balancing that I say. Nothing. I don't get it.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    eek said:

    Freggles said:

    AndyJS said:

    One thing that may have puzzled voters in Middle England is the left's obsession with "food banks". Many people will have been asking themselves why people need to go to food banks when they receive relatively generous welfare benefit payments.

    Generally because of sanctions which operate on a 'gotcha' system. Miss a signing on appointment because you had a job interview? Goodbye benefits. Brother dies and funeral is on danger day as job centre appointment? Too bad.
    Any evidence of that apart from rumour and innuendo..... Both the examples given above would automatically be reversed on appeal with it noted against the advisor who issued the sanction unless they can show that that information wasn't given to them early enough...
    One problem is that it takes a while to restart benefits, so casual work (or zero hours contracts) mean the recipient either doesn't take the job or works on the black economy.


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    JEO said:

    SeanT and Casino_Royale,

    What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be to be British. I had always thought the accusation of being unpatriotic was an unfair smear from those on the hard right, as all the Labour voters I know in real life are very proud of their country. But many of these people seem to be openly attacking this country and its people. If they express this view in pubs and bars, it doesn't surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.

    Now is the chance to truly and radically reform the governance of this nation, and change its political centre of gravity for good, so that such people (the hyper anglo-hating Left-wing activists) never get their hands on the reigns of power again.

    When the Left do regain power again (which they will) I want it to be by a Leftist party that's a patriotic liberal social-democratic party. In the English reforming radical tradition.

    Not a highly unionised, metropolitan sneering elite party, focussed mainly on social engineering, that is led by people who hold this nation and its voters in borderline contempt.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Calum There will be Tory tactical voting for Labour on the constituency list and UKIP will also likely win a seat or 2, the SNP will certainly be comfortably ahead, but it is not certain they will get another majority
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651

    PS. Message for the Left: all that sub-human bile and abuse you throw at Cameron and the Conservatives make me think they must be doing something right, to annoy you so much.

    Keep it up. You might firm up all the floating UKIP voters in the Conservative column for good.

    See? You know that hurling abuse at people doesn't make them inclined to vote for you. So why keep hurling abuse at Kippers? "You might firm up all the floating Ukip voters in the Ukip column for good".
    (I don't mean you. Just a general observation from a former Tory voter, who is now a Ukip supporter).
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :smiley:

    LucyJones said:

    I'm guessing Ed and Nick aren't going to be forced into un-resigning?


    Don't know. But I bet there are some Lefties on here who wish they could do some un-posting.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    Carnyx Scottish Tories can vote Labour first in the Central belt and Lothian etc and Tory on the list. If the SNP only lose a handful of seats they lose their majority, Labour almost certainly only held Edinburgh South at the general election because of Tory tactical voting
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    HYUFD said:

    BigG By 2020 Cameron will no longer be leader and the aftermath of EU ref will be very significant

    Yes - he will by then have resolved the referendum once and for all and will pass on a conservative party that will have transformed the country and whoever is leader then will see a substantial increase in their majority. Labour will not have recovered by then even if, and its a big if, they haven't split into two parties.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,596
    Freggles said:

    Chameleon said:

    Just out of interest, are any of you keen to see some maps of the result? I'm planning to do a Green v UKIP and Con v Lab ones (w/ gradient , e.g. 5, 10, 15, 20, 30%+ each a different colour). Does anyone have any special requests?

    Green seats where the Tories beat Labour by less than the Greens got, same for a UKIP either way.
    In other words, in which seats were the two smaller parties decisive
    Not this old chestnut again. In every seat, I would imagine, the non-voters would vastly outnumber Greens + UKIP and so be the decisive factor.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Just reading comments from Tim Farron on the BBC news website. He says the Tories fought their election campaign negatively based on fear.

    Bloody hypocrite, did he not hear or himself participate in the Tory "baby-eaters, cuts and poverty" scare stories the Lib Dems put about on a daily basis, including from the Leader of the party who presumably was still harbouring hopes of getting back into bed with Cameron et al in Coalition V2.0?

    Or is that guff not "fear" because it was, in their leftie minds, actually true?

    Fearmongering you say :D ?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wG6Jm5aOWN0

    *Cough* Lib Dems *Cough*
    Oh I do like that.

    Self-immolation from the Norwegian Blues.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:

    JEO said:

    SeanT and Casino_Royale,

    What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be to be British. I had always thought the accusation of being unpatriotic was an unfair smear from those on the hard right, as all the Labour voters I know in real life are very proud of their country. But many of these people seem to be openly attacking this country and its people. If they express this view in pubs and bars, it doesn't surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.

    It's not really a surprise. George Orwell was writing in the 1940s about how British lefties disliked their own country.
    A bit hyperbolic! There are some intellectuals like that. But the majority of the crowds dancing in the street at VE day were in the polling booths voting Labour the same summer.

    But no-one doubted Clement Attlees patriotism having been wounded in action himself. Incidentally, not only would he kiss a Tory - he married one.

    Nothing unpatriotic about being left wing, but it is often loyalty and devotion to a different facet of Britishness than the facets that aristocrats are loyal to.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Just noticed Shadsy's year of next election odds..

    2015 - 50/1
    2016 - 16/1
    2017 - 5/1
    2018 - 8/1
    2019 - 12/1
    2020 - 1/2

    Does anyone else think that, despite the FTPA, 2019 might be value?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SunPolitics: Bercow exclusive: Sally cheated for a year http://t.co/SsWoGNrJDO http://t.co/7CiFpwW558
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    No 10 website updated - Baroness Stowell now deleted from "also attending Cabinet".

    The power of PB!!!

    It has also been amended to show that Greg Hands is NOT a full cabinet member (but will attend).

    Updated list - which now looks correct!

    https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Interesting article in The Spectator about "Virtue SIgnalling" - i.e. showing how "good" you are by the hate and contempt you express for certain things. I think this is what a lot of the current leftie whining is about, at least in part:

    "It’s noticeable how often virtue signalling consists of saying you hate things. It is camouflage. The emphasis on hate distracts from the fact you are really saying how good you are. If you were frank and said, ‘I care about the environment more than most people do’ or ‘I care about the poor more than others’, your vanity and self-aggrandisement would be obvious, as it is with Whole Foods. Anger and outrage disguise your boastfulness...
    ...
    Twitter lends itself very well to virtue signalling, since it is much easier to express anger and scorn in 140 characters than to make a reasoned argument. Russell Brand is perhaps the ultimate incarnation of modern virtue signalling. He is bursting with anger and outrage. My goodness he must be good!"
    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9501282/hating-the-daily-mail-is-a-substitute-for-doing-good/

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    eek said:

    Freggles said:

    AndyJS said:

    One thing that may have puzzled voters in Middle England is the left's obsession with "food banks". Many people will have been asking themselves why people need to go to food banks when they receive relatively generous welfare benefit payments.

    Generally because of sanctions which operate on a 'gotcha' system. Miss a signing on appointment because you had a job interview? Goodbye benefits. Brother dies and funeral is on danger day as job centre appointment? Too bad.
    Any evidence of that apart from rumour and innuendo..... Both the examples given above would automatically be reversed on appeal with it noted against the advisor who issued the sanction unless they can show that that information wasn't given to them early enough...
    But whilst waiting for that appeal they lose their benefits right?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    BigG Any of the Labour potential leaders mentioned would be a big improvement on Miliband, if the EU referendum produces a narrow In with Cameron leading the In campaign alongside Labour and the LDs eurosceptic Tories could move to UKIP in significant numbers
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JGForsyth: If Carswell became an independent, would he need to fight a by-election under the Carswell doctrine? If so, could we see Farage v Carswell?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    It's clear that Cameron is trying to do three things with his reshuffle:

    (1) Continue the modernisation pitch, by promoting strong female and ethnic minority Conservative talent and thus diversifying the look and feel of his government
    (2) Bring the Right on board
    (3) Cement George Osborne's position

    So far, he seems to have done a pretty good job on all three counts.

    And in the process drive fairness and social awareness ultimately taking any space a labour party will want to claim as its own. As long as DC takes immediate control of the agenda by the time labour have anything like a credible story they will be too late. Indeed the internal discord in labour between left and right could well be leading to a comprehensive split and the dissolution of labour as we know it
    Yes. The biggest problem the Conservatives have is that they are seen as heartless and uncaring about social injustice. T

    The good news is that the parliamentary party recognises this, and how their opponents use it to damage them.

    If Cameron can (at least) neutralise this caricature of them by the Left amongst most floating voters (a big if) then a similar victory in GE2020 is perfectly possible.
    Social Justice hopefully means trying to ensure that the average voter can share the benefits of economic growth; as opposed to "social justice" where students from rich homes angrily check each others' privilege.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    calum If the SNP lose just 5 seats to Labour at the constituency level but hold the same number of regional lists seats they lose their majority by 1 seat. Now the SNP hold power at Holyrood and have most Scottish seats at Westminster they will also begin to be judged on their own record
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LBC: Harriet Harman says Labour won't apologise for overspending as it would be insincere http://t.co/NHbSPq7AWf http://t.co/uI3kFuhkhS

    The new leader (if they pick the right one) will apologise for overspending in the opening line of their acceptance speech
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    HYUFD said:

    Calum Many Scottish Tories will vote Labour at Holyrood with their first vote and Tory on the list to try and stop Sturgeon getting another majority and potentially another referendum. At Holyrood the battle will be Labour v SNP, not Labour v Tory as it was at Westminster, outside of the more Tory borders

    Labour supporters wont get of their arse for the Holyrood election.

  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    AndyJS said:

    JEO said:

    SeanT and Casino_Royale,

    What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be to be British. I had always thought the accusation of being unpatriotic was an unfair smear from those on the hard right, as all the Labour voters I know in real life are very proud of their country. But many of these people seem to be openly attacking this country and its people. If they express this view in pubs and bars, it doesn't surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.

    It's not really a surprise. George Orwell was writing in the 1940s about how British lefties disliked their own country.
    A bit hyperbolic! There are some intellectuals like that. But the majority of the crowds dancing in the street at VE day were in the polling booths voting Labour the same summer.

    But no-one doubted Clement Attlees patriotism having been wounded in action himself. Incidentally, not only would he kiss a Tory - he married one.

    Nothing unpatriotic about being left wing, but it is often loyalty and devotion to a different facet of Britishness than the facets that aristocrats are loyal to.
    Many of the individuals on social media are openly saying they are ashamed to be British, that the British are selfish or racist, or that they hate this country. That's not being loyal to a different facet of Britishness, that's being downright unpatriotic.

    As I said, most of the left-wing individuals I know in real life are very patriotic.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    MikeL said:

    No 10 website updated - Baroness Stowell now deleted from "also attending Cabinet".

    The power of PB!!!

    It has also been amended to show that Greg Hands is NOT a full cabinet member (but will attend).

    Updated list - which now looks correct!

    https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

    Undeniable proof Dave reads PB!
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Oooh, and as I type:

    David Cameron ‏@David_Cameron 1m1 minute ago
    Grant Shapps is the Minister of State at the Department for International Development.

    Demotion, no?

    Smart move by Dave. Grant can save the taxpayer some money as he jets around the world in his private plane.

    “Everyone needs a hobby. Mine’s flying. But buying and maintaining an aircraft (and this is my second machine) isn’t cheap! But I just hate to rent… So I took out my pocket-book and bought a plane."

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tory-election-guru-grant-shapps-5379086
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    JEO said:

    SeanT and Casino_Royale,

    What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be to be British. I had always thought the accusation of being unpatriotic was an unfair smear from those on the hard right, as all the Labour voters I know in real life are very proud of their country. But many of these people seem to be openly attacking this country and its people. If they express this view in pubs and bars, it doesn't surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.

    It's not really a surprise. George Orwell was writing in the 1940s about how British lefties disliked their own country.
    A bit hyperbolic! There are some intellectuals like that. But the majority of the crowds dancing in the street at VE day were in the polling booths voting Labour the same summer.

    But no-one doubted Clement Attlees patriotism having been wounded in action himself. Incidentally, not only would he kiss a Tory - he married one.

    Nothing unpatriotic about being left wing, but it is often loyalty and devotion to a different facet of Britishness than the facets that aristocrats are loyal to.
    But this new breed of Lefties are unashamed in their revulsion at most of their fellow Brits. They positively revel in it. "Voters are scum", "c*nts", etc.

    Makes them feel posher and smarter, I guess.

    That is a new phenomenon, and not a very happy one, I'd suggest, for Labour's electoral prospects, if this derangement continues.
    Bollocks! Orwell wrote his comments in the 30's; Nye Bevan famously decribed Tories as "lower than vermin". Or the hatred of Maggie shown in the eighties at the poll tax riots. There is nothing new in invective.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    LucyJones said:

    Interesting article in The Spectator about "Virtue SIgnalling" - i.e. showing how "good" you are by the hate and contempt you express for certain things. I think this is what a lot of the current leftie whining is about, at least in part:

    "It’s noticeable how often virtue signalling consists of saying you hate things. It is camouflage. The emphasis on hate distracts from the fact you are really saying how good you are. If you were frank and said, ‘I care about the environment more than most people do’ or ‘I care about the poor more than others’, your vanity and self-aggrandisement would be obvious, as it is with Whole Foods. Anger and outrage disguise your boastfulness...
    ...
    Twitter lends itself very well to virtue signalling, since it is much easier to express anger and scorn in 140 characters than to make a reasoned argument. Russell Brand is perhaps the ultimate incarnation of modern virtue signalling. He is bursting with anger and outrage. My goodness he must be good!"
    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9501282/hating-the-daily-mail-is-a-substitute-for-doing-good/

    They like to call it "punching up" whereby privileged people denounce each others' privilege.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    edited May 2015
    JEO said:

    AndyJS said:

    JEO said:

    SeanT and Casino_Royale,

    What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be to be British. I had always thought the accusation of being unpatriotic was an unfair smear from those on the hard right, as all the Labour voters I know in real life are very proud of their country. But many of these people seem to be openly attacking this country and its people. If they express this view in pubs and bars, it doesn't surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.

    It's not really a surprise. George Orwell was writing in the 1940s about how British lefties disliked their own country.
    A bit hyperbolic! There are some intellectuals like that. But the majority of the crowds dancing in the street at VE day were in the polling booths voting Labour the same summer.

    But no-one doubted Clement Attlees patriotism having been wounded in action himself. Incidentally, not only would he kiss a Tory - he married one.

    Nothing unpatriotic about being left wing, but it is often loyalty and devotion to a different facet of Britishness than the facets that aristocrats are loyal to.
    Many of the individuals on social media are openly saying they are ashamed to be British, that the British are selfish or racist, or that they hate this country. That's not being loyal to a different facet of Britishness, that's being downright unpatriotic.

    As I said, most of the left-wing individuals I know in real life are very patriotic.
    I have to be honest; if Weird Ed were PM now, I'd be feeling ashamed of this country.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    HYUFD said:

    BigG Any of the Labour potential leaders mentioned would be a big improvement on Miliband, if the EU referendum produces a narrow In with Cameron leading the In campaign alongside Labour and the LDs eurosceptic Tories could move to UKIP in significant numbers

    Its not going to happen There will be a vote and the result will be final. The idea that the matter will continue ad infinitum is unrealistic as there will not be another referendum
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,913
    Quite amusing how David Lammy and Angela Eagle's declaration that they have been sounding out support has seen them lengthen in the betting odds.

    New Labour leader in about january is my guess. I did think Chuka or Reeves, but Chuka or any female MP I think is right now.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JEO said:

    AndyJS said:

    JEO said:

    SeanT and Casino_Royale,

    What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be to be British. I had always thought the accusation of being unpatriotic was an unfair smear from those on the hard right, as all the Labour voters I know in real life are very proud of their country. But many of these people seem to be openly attacking this country and its people. If they express this view in pubs and bars, it doesn't surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.

    It's not really a surprise. George Orwell was writing in the 1940s about how British lefties disliked their own country.
    A bit hyperbolic! There are some intellectuals like that. But the majority of the crowds dancing in the street at VE day were in the polling booths voting Labour the same summer.

    But no-one doubted Clement Attlees patriotism having been wounded in action himself. Incidentally, not only would he kiss a Tory - he married one.

    Nothing unpatriotic about being left wing, but it is often loyalty and devotion to a different facet of Britishness than the facets that aristocrats are loyal to.
    Many of the individuals on social media are openly saying they are ashamed to be British, that the British are selfish or racist, or that they hate this country. That's not being loyal to a different facet of Britishness, that's being downright unpatriotic.

    As I said, most of the left-wing individuals I know in real life are very patriotic.
    Dave was the most astute assessor of twitter with his quote "Too many tweets make a twat!"
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Omnium said:

    isam said:

    Some perspective

    My GE Betting
    Stake 4461.62
    Return 1759.03
    Profit -2682.59
    ROI -60%

    Last weeks football betting
    Stake 68409.59
    Return 74595.91
    Profit 6186.32
    ROI 9%




    How can you even compare the glorious intellectual flights of fancy, daring dashes on hunches, and hopeless belief backing that is the glorious art of political betting with the downbeat, mindless, and frankly subhuman pursuit of football! Go and stand in a corner immediately!

    Isam, what particular football markets do you bet on?

    I mostly back horses these days.
    Goalscorer and bookings markets

    My friends run a tipping site called @raceclear, they do well, give them a try its free
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    On farage,I think it's the best outcome for ukip of farage staying on,ukip will need his X factor for the In/out EU referendum.

    Just think of the second coming of salmond meant to the SNP,for me,farage is up with salmond as two politicians who stand out in British politics.

    Remember my friends,the support the SNP got after the in/out referendum loss and even if the EU referendum is lost,all those out voters will be angry/frustrated,just as they were in Scotland ;-)

    UKIP surge post 2017 EU referendum ?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    There's a very similar article from Libby Purvis in The Times today - it's excellent if you missed it http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4436336.ece
    LucyJones said:

    Interesting article in The Spectator about "Virtue SIgnalling" - i.e. showing how "good" you are by the hate and contempt you express for certain things. I think this is what a lot of the current leftie whining is about, at least in part:

    "It’s noticeable how often virtue signalling consists of saying you hate things. It is camouflage. The emphasis on hate distracts from the fact you are really saying how good you are. If you were frank and said, ‘I care about the environment more than most people do’ or ‘I care about the poor more than others’, your vanity and self-aggrandisement would be obvious, as it is with Whole Foods. Anger and outrage disguise your boastfulness...
    ...
    Twitter lends itself very well to virtue signalling, since it is much easier to express anger and scorn in 140 characters than to make a reasoned argument. Russell Brand is perhaps the ultimate incarnation of modern virtue signalling. He is bursting with anger and outrage. My goodness he must be good!"
    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9501282/hating-the-daily-mail-is-a-substitute-for-doing-good/

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Tykejohnno Not only possible but likely I would say
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    BigG As Tykejohnno says just look at what has happened in Scotland
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    HYUFD said:

    BigG Any of the Labour potential leaders mentioned would be a big improvement on Miliband, if the EU referendum produces a narrow In with Cameron leading the In campaign alongside Labour and the LDs eurosceptic Tories could move to UKIP in significant numbers

    Its not going to happen There will be a vote and the result will be final. The idea that the matter will continue ad infinitum is unrealistic as there will not be another referendum
    There are an awful lot of MPs who have waited decades for a referendum if they perceive that Dave is not playing straight they are not going to roll over and accept the result of an in vote.

    The EU is not going away and it will need to integrate further. There is a very strong case as to why the EU will never allow a two speed solution with the UK on the outside.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2015
    Chameleon said:

    Just out of interest, are any of you keen to see some maps of the result? I'm planning to do a Green v UKIP and Con v Lab ones in a bit (w/ gradient , e.g. 5, 10, 15, 20, 30%+ lead each a different colour). Does anyone have any special requests/ suggestions?

    (They will be this quality: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/2015UKElectionMap.svg)

    I would be interested in a UKIP map in 5% bands or even 2.5% bands. A cursory look at the figures to me looks as if the UKIP vote was often over 10% but rarely over 20%. I would be interested in the Geography of this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Ehahem But unionist Tories will and they want to stop a Sturgeon majority
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Omnium said:

    Quite amusing how David Lammy and Angela Eagle's declaration that they have been sounding out support has seen them lengthen in the betting odds.

    New Labour leader in about january is my guess. I did think Chuka or Reeves, but Chuka or any female MP I think is right now.

    For labour to have any hope of recovering they must elect a leader from 2010 (non of the old guard) but also need to detach the union influence. Furthermore they need to have business and aspirational friendly policies. In reality is this even possible with the in fighting that is inevitable.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    JEO said:

    SeanT and Casino_Royale,

    What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be to be British. I had always thought the accusation of being unpatriotic was an unfair smear from those on the hard right, as all the Labour voters I know in real life are very proud of their country. But many of these people seem to be openly attacking this country and its people. If they express this view in pubs and bars, it doesn't surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.

    It's not really a surprise. George Orwell was writing in the 1940s about how British lefties disliked their own country.
    A bit hyperbolic! There are some intellectuals like that. But the majority of the crowds dancing in the street at VE day were in the polling booths voting Labour the same summer.

    But no-one doubted Clement Attlees patriotism having been wounded in action himself. Incidentally, not only would he kiss a Tory - he married one.

    Nothing unpatriotic about being left wing, but it is often loyalty and devotion to a different facet of Britishness than the facets that aristocrats are loyal to.
    But this new breed of Lefties are unashamed in their revulsion at most of their fellow Brits. They positively revel in it. "Voters are scum", "c*nts", etc.

    Makes them feel posher and smarter, I guess.

    That is a new phenomenon, and not a very happy one, I'd suggest, for Labour's electoral prospects, if this derangement continues.
    Bollocks! Orwell wrote his comments in the 30's; Nye Bevan famously decribed Tories as "lower than vermin". Or the hatred of Maggie shown in the eighties at the poll tax riots. There is nothing new in invective.

    I (politely) disagree, again. Back in the day, the spleen was directed at politicians and maybe their close supporters, donors, etc.

    Now the venom is expectorated everywhere, even (especially?) at humble voters. These new guys are happy to abuse and insult average working class Brits, and quite violently, too.

    Of course the echo chamber effect of the Internet magnifies and makes it all worse: the horriblest voices are surely a minority but they seem like a majority because they are the most noticeable.


    There was a message on here about a shop that wanted Tory voters to identify themselves so he could add a 10% "tax".

    I thought it was a joke. Turns out the guy (shop in Lewes) really meant his anger - but only one person had so far admitted to being a Tory after they had paid.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2015
    Betting Post

    Paddy Power have gone 500/1 on UKIP to win the most seats at the next
    General Election. That's nuts.
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    JEO said:

    SeanT and Casino_Royale,

    What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be to be British. I had always thought the accusation of being unpatriotic was an unfair smear from those on the hard right, as all the Labour voters I know in real life are very proud of their country. But many of these people seem to be openly attacking this country and its people. If they express this view in pubs and bars, it doesn't surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.

    It's not really a surprise. George Orwell was writing in the 1940s about how British lefties disliked their own country.
    A bit hyperbolic! There are some intellectuals like that. But the majority of the crowds dancing in the street at VE day were in the polling booths voting Labour the same summer.

    But no-one doubted Clement Attlees patriotism having been wounded in action himself. Incidentally, not only would he kiss a Tory - he married one.

    Nothing unpatriotic about being left wing, but it is often loyalty and devotion to a different facet of Britishness than the facets that aristocrats are loyal to.
    But this new breed of Lefties are unashamed in their revulsion at most of their fellow Brits. They positively revel in it. "Voters are scum", "c*nts", etc.

    Makes them feel posher and smarter, I guess.

    That is a new phenomenon, and not a very happy one, I'd suggest, for Labour's electoral prospects, if this derangement continues.
    Bollocks! Orwell wrote his comments in the 30's; Nye Bevan famously decribed Tories as "lower than vermin". Or the hatred of Maggie shown in the eighties at the poll tax riots. There is nothing new in invective.

    I (politely) disagree, again. Back in the day, the spleen was directed at politicians and maybe their close supporters, donors, etc.

    Now the venom is expectorated everywhere, even (especially?) at humble voters. These new guys are happy to abuse and insult average working class Brits, and quite violently, too.

    Of course the echo chamber effect of the Internet magnifies and makes it all worse: the horriblest voices are surely a minority but they seem like a majority because they are the most noticeable.


    There was a message on here about a shop that wanted Tory voters to identify themselves so he could add a 10% "tax".

    I thought it was a joke. Turns out the guy (shop in Lewes) really meant his anger - but only one person had so far admitted to being a Tory after they had paid.

    This must be discriminatory and illegal, surely?
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    Omnium said:

    Quite amusing how David Lammy and Angela Eagle's declaration that they have been sounding out support has seen them lengthen in the betting odds.

    New Labour leader in about january is my guess. I did think Chuka or Reeves, but Chuka or any female MP I think is right now.

    Personally I wouldn't put any money on a female leader.

    If any party feels the need all female shortlists it says one of two things (possibly both)

    a) we dont believe our women have sufficient merit to be selected if they have to run against a man

    or

    b) we believe are selection electorate are too sexist to select a woman regardless of her merits.

    If that is the case for mere ppc selection it will be doubly so for leader selection

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    I think Ireland in the late 1800s is our best guide as to what will happen in UK General Elections in Scotland now tbh.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    I won my only (admittedly small) bet on the election; did anyone else hav a 100% record? ;)

    I think I definitely won the anagram election. I haven't seen any others, but Weird Amid Bland was clearly awesome. And my Election Day special (just in case anyone missed it: Scottish National Party = I train total sycophants) was clearly another triumph!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited May 2015

    AndyJS said:

    JEO said:

    SeanT and Casino_Royale,

    What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be to be British. I had always thought the accusation of being unpatriotic was an unfair smear from those on the hard right, as all the Labour voters I know in real life are very proud of their country. But many of these people seem to be openly attacking this country and its people. If they express this view in pubs and bars, it doesn't surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.

    It's not really a surprise. George Orwell was writing in the 1940s about how British lefties disliked their own country.
    A bit hyperbolic! There are some intellectuals like that. But the majority of the crowds dancing in the street at VE day were in the polling booths voting Labour the same summer.

    But no-one doubted Clement Attlees patriotism having been wounded in action himself. Incidentally, not only would he kiss a Tory - he married one.

    Nothing unpatriotic about being left wing, but it is often loyalty and devotion to a different facet of Britishness than the facets that aristocrats are loyal to.
    A great summary.

    I've been told on here that you can't judge many of those on the centre-right online, as representative of all those on the right. Yet the odd twitter, or Guardians' comments section now represents the views of everyone on the centre -left?

    It must be because we haven't had any stories of mass divisions within Labour (yet) so people have to assert that randoms on social media are some how evidence for it....
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    On farage,I think it's the best outcome for ukip of farage staying on,ukip will need his X factor for the In/out EU referendum.

    Just think of the second coming of salmond meant to the SNP,for me,farage is up with salmond as two politicians who stand out in British politics.

    Remember my friends,the support the SNP got after the in/out referendum loss and even if the EU referendum is lost,all those out voters will be angry/frustrated,just as they were in Scotland ;-)

    UKIP surge post 2017 EU referendum ?

    No. There just isn't the passion, nor the justified feeling that the system is fundamentally broken. In will win easily and UKIP will fade away.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    No 10 website updated - Baroness Stowell now deleted from "also attending Cabinet".

    The power of PB!!!

    It has also been amended to show that Greg Hands is NOT a full cabinet member (but will attend).

    Updated list - which now looks correct!

    https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

    Undeniable proof Dave reads PB!
    Now after a busy few days....time for a spot of Candy Crush....ahhh Chillax....
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Leftie whinge off on BBC1.

    'We don't like the result, so lets change the voting system'.
  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    edited May 2015
    Even on mumsnet, the big discussion before the GE was...tactical voting. Now it is so mainstream, it seems daft not to introduce a system of PR. Then everybody's vote would count, not just the priviliged 20%. An anorak site like this one should coalesce round a good system, and then it should be introduced.

    I've no idea why a referendun should be required. Was there a referendum when women were given the vote? When the voting age was reduced from 21 to 18?

    Referenda don't seem to be part of good govt. They are no more than an excuse for not doing what you don't want to do.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    MP_SE said:

    HYUFD said:

    BigG Any of the Labour potential leaders mentioned would be a big improvement on Miliband, if the EU referendum produces a narrow In with Cameron leading the In campaign alongside Labour and the LDs eurosceptic Tories could move to UKIP in significant numbers

    Its not going to happen There will be a vote and the result will be final. The idea that the matter will continue ad infinitum is unrealistic as there will not be another referendum
    There are an awful lot of MPs who have waited decades for a referendum if they perceive that Dave is not playing straight they are not going to roll over and accept the result of an in vote.

    The EU is not going away and it will need to integrate further. There is a very strong case as to why the EU will never allow a two speed solution with the UK on the outside.
    I don't doubt there will be 'lively' debate from both sides but once the referendum is concluded that is it. I do not buy into the argument that there will be further referendums.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Betting Post

    Paddy Power have gone 500/1 on UKIP to win the most seats at the next
    General Election. That's nuts.
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats
    LOL, they're only 250/1 SNP. WTF?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    edited May 2015

    Betting Post

    Paddy Power have gone 500/1 on UKIP to win the most seats at the next
    General Election. That's nuts.
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats
    I've piled on for a max bet on that.

    When the EU referendum gets narrowly lost by 3%....
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    RobD said:

    There was a message on here about a shop that wanted Tory voters to identify themselves so he could add a 10% "tax".

    I thought it was a joke. Turns out the guy (shop in Lewes) really meant his anger - but only one person had so far admitted to being a Tory after they had paid.

    This must be discriminatory and illegal, surely?
    The story...

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/10/garden-centre-owners-10-tax-for-tory-voters-sign-goes-viral

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    No 10 website updated - Baroness Stowell now deleted from "also attending Cabinet".

    The power of PB!!!

    It has also been amended to show that Greg Hands is NOT a full cabinet member (but will attend).

    Updated list - which now looks correct!

    https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

    Undeniable proof Dave reads PB!
    Now after a busy few days....time for a spot of Candy Crush....ahhh Chillax....
    If anyone has deserved a couple of rounds of Candy Crush, it's Call Me Dave.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Betting Post

    Paddy Power have gone 500/1 on UKIP to win the most seats at the next
    General Election. That's nuts.
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats
    LOL, they're only 250/1 SNP. WTF?
    The SNP could annexe us.. Amusing that that's considered more likely than UKIP!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Betting Post

    Paddy Power have gone 500/1 on UKIP to win the most seats at the next
    General Election. That's nuts.
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats
    I've piled on for a max bet on that.

    When the EU referendum gets narrowly lost by 3%....
    72p ?

    Can't really understand shadsy's 8/11 on the Tories either. Yes, there are risks, but they're decent favourites from here. I think 1983 is actually a better parallel than 1992 for the 2015 result.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Think if all the PBers that were going to vote Ukip under a new leader but now will have to stick with their old party! #missedopportunity

    For all the stick Farage is getting for being reinstated at the behest of the money men )and I think he should stay out) I have seen little criticism of Ed Balls alleged grubby attempt to get back in.
    If he had won Thanet South by 1 vote and UKIP had got 8% you would have been happy for him to stay?

    Basically unless Carswell wanted the job, it was going to be a non MP, so Farage's reason for stepping down (not being in Westminster) was bogus.. as it stands he is the best man for the job, and he is in he job

    Rejoice!
    The issue is one of credibility. He set a condition he'd resign by if he failed - and he failed. If he'd won South Thanet by 1 vote then that would have been a success not a failure.

    The mistake was saying he'd resign if he didn't win in the first place. But once said, he should honour his pledges.
    So even though it is worse for UKIP, he should resign to keep other parties supporters happy? OK

    Anyway, he did resign, but they didn't accept it

    Everyone's happy!
    Though he made clear in his "resignation speech" that he didn't want to go.

    Either way I'm amused that 12%, no new seats and only one of the defectors is considered a win now. Before the election we were being told that the vote share would at least be high teens and there would be a number of seats. Looks like both expectations were undershot. Rather than rewriting history to make that look like a success a reflection on what went wrong seems more credible if the party was intending to be serious.
    "Before the election we were being told that the vote share would at least be high teens "

    Who is rewriting history?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Betting Post

    Paddy Power have gone 500/1 on UKIP to win the most seats at the next
    General Election. That's nuts.
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats
    LOL, they're only 250/1 SNP. WTF?
    Hah lol 25 million to 1 more likely.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    watford30 said:

    Leftie whinge off on BBC1.

    'We don't like the result, so lets change the voting system'.

    The wake still going on at the old flat earth society......I caught a couple of hours R5 this afternoon and it was Labour, Labour, Labour, Labour, oh such and such as been appointed to cabinet, Labour, Labour, Labour...

    Bonus points for when you hear the presenter talk about "we"....
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Plato said:

    There's a very similar article from Libby Purvis in The Times today - it's excellent if you missed it http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4436336.ece

    LucyJones said:

    Interesting article in The Spectator about "Virtue SIgnalling" - i.e. showing how "good" you are by the hate and contempt you express for certain things. I think this is what a lot of the current leftie whining is about, at least in part:

    "It’s noticeable how often virtue signalling consists of saying you hate things. It is camouflage. The emphasis on hate distracts from the fact you are really saying how good you are. If you were frank and said, ‘I care about the environment more than most people do’ or ‘I care about the poor more than others’, your vanity and self-aggrandisement would be obvious, as it is with Whole Foods. Anger and outrage disguise your boastfulness...
    ...
    Twitter lends itself very well to virtue signalling, since it is much easier to express anger and scorn in 140 characters than to make a reasoned argument. Russell Brand is perhaps the ultimate incarnation of modern virtue signalling. He is bursting with anger and outrage. My goodness he must be good!"
    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9501282/hating-the-daily-mail-is-a-substitute-for-doing-good/

    Thanks for that.
    You've got to love: “Jesus said unto him, If thou wilt be perfect, go and sell that thou hast and give to the poor. But when the young man heard that saying, he went away sorrowful, for he had great possessions. So he went on Twitter instead and called Michael Gove a ‘vile reptilian evil tory scumbag’, and linked to a cartoon of Iain Duncan Smith stealing a paralysed woman’s wheelchair. And lo, he felt better and went for a £3.50 caramel macchiato with some mates from the BBC.”

  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,596
    RobD said:





    There was a message on here about a shop that wanted Tory voters to identify themselves so he could add a 10% "tax".

    I thought it was a joke. Turns out the guy (shop in Lewes) really meant his anger - but only one person had so far admitted to being a Tory after they had paid.

    This must be discriminatory and illegal, surely?
    Probably, until the HRA is scrapped, when it's OK.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Chameleon said:

    Just out of interest, are any of you keen to see some maps of the result? I'm planning to do a Green v UKIP and Con v Lab ones in a bit (w/ gradient , e.g. 5, 10, 15, 20, 30%+ lead each a different colour). Does anyone have any special requests/ suggestions?

    (They will be this quality: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/2015UKElectionMap.svg)

    I would be interested in a UKIP map in 5% bands or even 2.5% bands. A cursory look at the figures to me looks as if the UKIP vote was often over 10% but rarely over 20%. I would be interested in the Geography of this.
    Sure, will do.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Really it's a shop job - if anyone can get £20/£50 on @ 500/1 at a local Paddy Power I'll buy it off them for a 25% markup!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    Even on mumsnet, the big discussion before the GE was...tactical voting. Now it is so mainstream, it seems daft not to introduce a system of PR. Then everybody's vote would count, not just the priviliged 20%. An anorak site like this one should coalesce round a good system, and then it should be introduced.

    I've no idea why a referendun should be required. Was there a referendum when women were given the vote? When the voting age was reduced from 21 to 18?

    Referenda don't seem to be part of good govt. They are no more than an excuse for not doing what you don't want to do.

    There is precedent on having a referendum. we had one for AV, so why don't we need one for PR.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Pulpstar said:

    Betting Post

    Paddy Power have gone 500/1 on UKIP to win the most seats at the next
    General Election. That's nuts.
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats
    I've piled on for a max bet on that.

    When the EU referendum gets narrowly lost by 3%....
    72p ?

    Can't really understand shadsy's 8/11 on the Tories either. Yes, there are risks, but they're decent favourites from here. I think 1983 is actually a better parallel than 1992 for the result (if not the polling).
    Yup 72 pence. Our accounts must have the same "score"
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I won my only (admittedly small) bet on the election; did anyone else hav a 100% record? ;)

    I think I definitely won the anagram election. I haven't seen any others, but Weird Amid Bland was clearly awesome. And my Election Day special (just in case anyone missed it: Scottish National Party = I train total sycophants) was clearly another triumph!

    Brilliant Anagrams!

    My favourite one for Shirley Williams was "I twirl aimlessly" perhaps you had to be in the SDP in the eighties to appreciate it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    edited May 2015

    RobD said:





    There was a message on here about a shop that wanted Tory voters to identify themselves so he could add a 10% "tax".

    I thought it was a joke. Turns out the guy (shop in Lewes) really meant his anger - but only one person had so far admitted to being a Tory after they had paid.

    This must be discriminatory and illegal, surely?
    Probably, until the HRA is scrapped, when it's OK.
    Isn't the idea to simply have a British version, with our courts being the final arbiter? It'd still be illegal...
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    @Casino and @Seant

    Enjoy your lefty, love in bashing while it lasts. Labour lost the last two elections because of terrible, terrible, terrible leadership choices. Provided it doesn't make another terrible choice I fully expect the political gravity to return shortly to the centre progressives, i.e. Labour.


  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    RobD said:





    There was a message on here about a shop that wanted Tory voters to identify themselves so he could add a 10% "tax".

    I thought it was a joke. Turns out the guy (shop in Lewes) really meant his anger - but only one person had so far admitted to being a Tory after they had paid.

    This must be discriminatory and illegal, surely?
    Probably, until the HRA is scrapped, when it's OK.
    Similar lefty garbage to that about foodbanks. You say HRA being scrapped, but you don't say HRA being scrapped and replaced by a British Bill of Human Rights. Do you really think that there won't be reasonable rights laid out in our bill?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Betting Post

    Paddy Power have gone 500/1 on UKIP to win the most seats at the next
    General Election. That's nuts.
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats
    I've piled on for a max bet on that.

    When the EU referendum gets narrowly lost by 3%....
    72p ?

    Can't really understand shadsy's 8/11 on the Tories either. Yes, there are risks, but they're decent favourites from here. I think 1983 is actually a better parallel than 1992 for the result (if not the polling).
    Yup 72 pence. Our accounts must have the same "score"
    Sorry to disappoint, but I think it's €1 which I think is their minimum offer to everybody regardless of what the scoring says. ;)
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx Scottish Tories can vote Labour first in the Central belt and Lothian etc and Tory on the list. If the SNP only lose a handful of seats they lose their majority, Labour almost certainly only held Edinburgh South at the general election because of Tory tactical voting

    SNP Labour contests do not appear to be very open to tactical voting. The SNP is beyond the reach of tactical voting in most seats. The only likely ones where they might be challenged are also ones where it is generally very unclear whether the tactical vote should go to Liberals or Tories.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Just out of interest, are any of you keen to see some maps of the result? I'm planning to do a Green v UKIP and Con v Lab ones in a bit (w/ gradient , e.g. 5, 10, 15, 20, 30%+ lead each a different colour). Does anyone have any special requests/ suggestions?

    (They will be this quality: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/2015UKElectionMap.svg)

    I would be interested in a UKIP map in 5% bands or even 2.5% bands. A cursory look at the figures to me looks as if the UKIP vote was often over 10% but rarely over 20%. I would be interested in the Geography of this.
    Sure, will do.
    Greens in 2.5% bands would be interesting too, and perhaps also the LDs.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    Even on mumsnet, the big discussion before the GE was...tactical voting. Now it is so mainstream,

    You appear to be mistaking Mumsnet = the public at large....

This discussion has been closed.