One feature of the election night coverage I hated as an orienteer was the Hexagonal dots for each of the parties. Its such an artificial construct, and leads to a horribly contorted map of Britain - I wish they coloured in the constituencies in line with their actual position on a map of the Britain. The latter was actually much better, as it clearly showed the 'atomisation' of the electoral map with Labour now just an urban party of England along with its South Wales heartland and a few honourable exceptions eg Ynys Mon, Clwyd South.
Of the 8 Lib Dem victories, 2 of them (Clegg and Mulholland) were only due to Tories voting tactically Lib Dem - the Tory vote in Lib Dem Labour marginals has finally woken up to the realities of FPTP and voted tactically for the first time. The relatively small falls of Jo Swinson and Crockart in Edinburgh W were also clearly aided by Tory tactical voting. This may help any future Lib Dem revival where the Tories don't stand a chance in future. The other 6 Lib Dem victories were all because there was enough of a majority to cushion the swing against them.
Personally I don't think Farron will be the answer to the Lib Dems problems. Whilst undoubtedly he's a great campaigner, I think he lacks the necessary gravitas to launch a root and branch reform of the party. I would have thought that Norman Lamb would be the better long term choice as far as they are concerned.
The LD's won't be getting those tactical Tory votes if they pick Farron, will they?
I would honestly make the LD spread next time at something like 10-12 - and that's only high because of the possibility of a major shock to the system. Where on earth are they going to make gains?
Be careful, Farron wants to drop the 'Democrat' bit doesn't he? Could give a free option to snides
One feature of the election night coverage I hated as an orienteer was the Hexagonal dots for each of the parties. Its such an artificial construct, and leads to a horribly contorted map of Britain - I wish they coloured in the constituencies in line with their actual position on a map of the Britain. The latter was actually much better, as it clearly showed the 'atomisation' of the electoral map with Labour now just an urban party of England along with its South Wales heartland and a few honourable exceptions eg Ynys Mon, Clwyd South.
They should have at least had them side-by-side, so we can see how geographical area translates (roughly) into population distribution. I like the idea of equal-sized constituencies on the map to show the true balance of seats, otherwise it'd always look like a Tory landslide (not saying I wouldn't enjoy that!)
Fox Yesterdays news? Chuka was only elected in 2010
TheApocalypse Chuka is also favoured by Blairites, has emphasised the need for Labour to recapture the language of aspiration and is Mandelson's favoured candidate
Rod Grimond won 6 seats in 1959, in 9 in 1964 and 12 in 1966, Steel won 11 in 1979, 23 in 1983 and 22 in 1987
hunchman The main 'root and branch' reform the party needs to do is to run as far away from the Coalition as possible and try and win back some Labour tactical votes in Tory-LD marginals
Without Grimond they would probably have gone down to 3 or something....
One feature of the election night coverage I hated as an orienteer was the Hexagonal dots for each of the parties. Its such an artificial construct, and leads to a horribly contorted map of Britain - I wish they coloured in the constituencies in line with their actual position on a map of the Britain. The latter was actually much better, as it clearly showed the 'atomisation' of the electoral map with Labour now just an urban party of England along with its South Wales heartland and a few honourable exceptions eg Ynys Mon, Clwyd South.
Of the 8 Lib Dem victories, 2 of them (Clegg and Mulholland) were only due to Tories voting tactically Lib Dem - the Tory vote in Lib Dem Labour marginals has finally woken up to the realities of FPTP and voted tactically for the first time. The relatively small falls of Jo Swinson and Crockart in Edinburgh W were also clearly aided by Tory tactical voting. This may help any future Lib Dem revival where the Tories don't stand a chance in future. The other 6 Lib Dem victories were all because there was enough of a majority to cushion the swing against them.
Personally I don't think Farron will be the answer to the Lib Dems problems. Whilst undoubtedly he's a great campaigner, I think he lacks the necessary gravitas to launch a root and branch reform of the party. I would have thought that Norman Lamb would be the better long term choice as far as they are concerned.
The trouble with Norman Lamb is that he is a continuity Clegg candidate. LDs only hope is to get back the tactical votes of those on the centre-left - the protest vote has well and truly gone to UKIP. Farron, is lefty enough to get that vote back. Tories will not vote LD in large enough numbers tactically, to keep the party surviving in the long-term in the way the centre-left did for years.
But tacking back left is only going to work if the Tories implode (which they might). Otherwise the LD's will be up against loads of first-time incumbents in their former seats, and elsewhere the lefty space is already occupied by the Greens.
Where is the great hostility to Liz Kendall? I've certainly not seen it....
From Chuka, Yvette and Andy, I expect.
No one likes to realise that that they are yesterdays news.
I like the fact that while they are all dodging questions about standing, Liz was forthright about setting out her stall. Nothing wrong with ambition and aspiration.
Indeed. Which is why she worries. Yet I suspect she will lose. The Guardianista are screeching in their hatred of her Blairiness.
I think the party wants to move on from Blairites vs Brownites. Both the namesakes are gone from politics.
But while Liz may lose a few votes for being pragmatic rather than ideological, she will gain others for the same reason.
She has the chromosome advantage too, both the Lab 2010 and 2015 intake are more female, and I think that these new guard want to take power.
Just on Lord Sugar's quitting of Labour today, his letter confirms that senior members of the Labour party knew his intention to quit for many months...
At the back of my head during the campaign when we had Balls or Miliband I think rebutting that business were coming out for Tory's, I'm sure I had them pointing to Lord Sugar as one well known supporter... yet in private they would have known....
I am looking forward to the Conservatives sufficiently moving the centre of gravity of political debate in this country such that next time it is fought on different, and far more sensible, ground.
That's the difference between the Left and the Right in the UK. The ablest leaders on the right have been able to win public debate and implement policy in office that has moved the centre ground of political debate further to the right. The ablest leaders on the left have been able to convince their party that they should give up on moving the centre ground in favour of simply occupying office.
Such a load of bull. Take the minimum wage. Now fully part of the centre ground furniture, originally opposed in apocalyptic terms by the right.
Look at the poor buggers losing their jobs at the post firm today. Because they're on zero hours contracts they have lost their jobs instantly, making a mockery of the law on notice periods for redundancy. Similarly for the delivery firm at Christmas where the workers were self-employed so will get nothing as they are at the back of the queue for insolvency payouts, behind the parent company for the firm who lent it money.
The centre ground in employment relations has shifted further to the right despite the minimum wage.
Kind of confused as to what the difference is between that and the tens of thousands of consultants who can all lose their jobs at a moments notice. It has ever been thus.
My understanding was that consultants are able to charge a higher rate which allows them to cope with a less reliable supply of work.
I've heard some people in Labour and the Unions say that contract staff should not be allowed to be employed on lower rates than permanent staff. Now if it was the other way round, that contractors could not be employed on higher rates than permies, they would get all the votes of permanent IT staff.
One feature of the election night coverage I hated as an orienteer was the Hexagonal dots for each of the parties. Its such an artificial construct, and leads to a horribly contorted map of Britain - I wish they coloured in the constituencies in line with their actual position on a map of the Britain. The latter was actually much better, as it clearly showed the 'atomisation' of the electoral map with Labour now just an urban party of England along with its South Wales heartland and a few honourable exceptions eg Ynys Mon, Clwyd South.
Of the 8 Lib Dem victories, 2 of them (Clegg and Mulholland) were only due to Tories voting tactically Lib Dem - the Tory vote in Lib Dem Labour marginals has finally woken up to the realities of FPTP and voted tactically for the first time. The relatively small falls of Jo Swinson and Crockart in Edinburgh W were also clearly aided by Tory tactical voting. This may help any future Lib Dem revival where the Tories don't stand a chance in future. The other 6 Lib Dem victories were all because there was enough of a majority to cushion the swing against them.
Personally I don't think Farron will be the answer to the Lib Dems problems. Whilst undoubtedly he's a great campaigner, I think he lacks the necessary gravitas to launch a root and branch reform of the party. I would have thought that Norman Lamb would be the better long term choice as far as they are concerned.
The LD's won't be getting those tactical Tory votes if they pick Farron, will they?
I would honestly make the LD spread next time at something like 10-12 - and that's only high because of the possibility of a major shock to the system. Where on earth are they going to make gains?
If the Tories become very unpopular then I could see the Lib Dems gaining back the likes of Hazel Grove, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Bath where there has never been a desire to return a Labour MP whilst having a social conscience that would make them inconceivable gains by UKIP.
Rod Grimond won 6 seats in 1959, in 9 in 1964 and 12 in 1966, Steel won 11 in 1979, 23 in 1983 and 22 in 1987
hunchman The main 'root and branch' reform the party needs to do is to run as far away from the Coalition as possible and try and win back some Labour tactical votes in Tory-LD marginals
The main thing the Lib Dems needed to do, and which ALL the other minor parties did at the election was make clear their prefferred partner after the GE.
They were neither fish nor fowl when it came to it.
I remember that 2005 election well. It brought peak LD, with a hefty anti-war vote. Tony Blair lost 47 seats, but only 33 to Michael Howard. Don't forget that the Tories backed the war too.
It is unusual for a GE to change more than 50-60 seats. The only one that I remember over 100 was 1997, even in 1983 only 60 or so seats swapped. David Cameron gained 97 in 2010 to set the scene for gaining 25 this time. It is funny how some critics consider the first a failure, though they do seem noticeably quieter on the subject now.
I think Oona King lost her seat that election (sadly) to none other than George Galloway. Glad that man is gone from parliament again.
Tbf to Cameron, he apparently had to have one of the largest swings in history in order to get a majority in 2010. Astoundingly little progress got made in terms of seats in 2001, and 2005.
Just on Lord Sugar's quitting of Labour today, his letter confirms that senior members of the Labour party knew his intention to quit for many months...
At the back of my head during the campaign when we had Balls or Miliband I think rebutting that business were coming out for Tory's, I'm sure I had them pointing to Lord Sugar as one well known supporter... yet in private they would have known....
Fox Yesterdays news? Chuka was only elected in 2010
TheApocalypse Chuka is also favoured by Blairites, has emphasised the need for Labour to recapture the language of aspiration and is Mandelson's favoured candidate
Being Mandelsons chosen candidate is an albatross about his neck.
hunchman Labour could pick up the suburban middle class vote, UKIP will continue to do well with the wwc
Interesting you mention Vale of Clwyd, did some phoning there the Monday before polling day (Jamie Davis is a friend of a friend) and not a bad reaction and so it proved
Fox Yesterdays news? Chuka was only elected in 2010
TheApocalypse Chuka is also favoured by Blairites, has emphasised the need for Labour to recapture the language of aspiration and is Mandelson's favoured candidate
Being Mandelsons chosen candidate is an albatross about his neck.
Chuka is the one candidate I've not backed or laid yet...
The Prosecco tasted very sweet indeed when the likes of Dougie Alexander, Jim Murphy, Margaret Curran and everyone in SLAB with the exception of Ian Murray came crashing down!
On more substantial matters, I have good news and bad news.
The good news is that my GE2015 betting account has been approved by Higher Authority, and my Licence to Carry Out Political Betting has been, as I expected, extended without demur.
The bad news is that there is disturbing talk of a Milbandesque raid on my profits, a sort of windfall tax, diverting them from the good use I had pencilled in - the Nabavi Claret Fund - to more mundane purposes. I've tried to argue that this will damage incentives and act as a brake on entrepreneurial zeal, but so far without success.
Consider yourself lucky to live in a social democracy. I toil under a Communist yoke: from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.
SeanT - from a thread of yesterday. I had a vague recollection that my April prediction was very bearish for LDs, but am pretty shocked myself that it was in any way accurate elsewhere.
I was helping out in a Tory/LD marginal, and could see the wind was blowing. Where I live is safe blue, but I'd been having lots of conversations with solid Labour voters who were turned towards Green by EdM. Strangely, I was also seeing direct L-C converts or L-UKIP in working class pals. Not a single person I know was going to vote LD (I'm in my late 20s, last time ALL my uni pals voted LD for one reason, and ALL my school mates voted LD for another).
I wish I could claim some clairvoyance for the result (Midlands was key to the calculation re swing seats - and I'm a West Brom supporter, perhaps that is the only way to explain it). Downright finger in the air luck. I did once have a serious pollster startup discussion with a techie mate, though....
Ta for the info!
Whatever the explanation, your prediction was eerily prescient. Sincere Congratulations. You are an Official PB Soothsayer.
Thanks! Not sure I can handle the pressure of being a soothsayer, though!
One feature of the election night coverage I hated as an orienteer was the Hexagonal dots for each of the parties. Its such an artificial construct, and leads to a horribly contorted map of Britain - I wish they coloured in the constituencies in line with their actual position on a map of the Britain. The latter was actually much better, as it clearly showed the 'atomisation' of the electoral map with Labour now just an urban party of England along with its South Wales heartland and a few honourable exceptions eg Ynys Mon, Clwyd South.
Of the 8 Lib Dem victories, 2 of them (Clegg and Mulholland) were only due to Tories voting tactically Lib Dem - the Tory vote in Lib Dem Labour marginals has finally woken up to the realities of FPTP and voted tactically for the first time. The relatively small falls of Jo Swinson and Crockart in Edinburgh W were also clearly aided by Tory tactical voting. This may help any future Lib Dem revival where the Tories don't stand a chance in future. The other 6 Lib Dem victories were all because there was enough of a majority to cushion the swing against them.
Personally I don't think Farron will be the answer to the Lib Dems problems. Whilst undoubtedly he's a great campaigner, I think he lacks the necessary gravitas to launch a root and branch reform of the party. I would have thought that Norman Lamb would be the better long term choice as far as they are concerned.
The LD's won't be getting those tactical Tory votes if they pick Farron, will they?
I would honestly make the LD spread next time at something like 10-12 - and that's only high because of the possibility of a major shock to the system. Where on earth are they going to make gains?
Politically I am closer to Lamb than Fallon, but I shall be going for the latter, and as a party member I do have a vote.
Fallon is undoubtably energetic, and will put in the miles around the country on the stump.
Harriet Harman cheered after telling Labour MPs not to listen to Mandelson apparently
The tories will be delighted hearing that..
Yes. Early signs are that the Labour leadership contest is going to be fascinatingly and risibly misguided. The only guy who talked sense - Jarvis - has withdrawn.
I have touchingly high hopes Labour will choose the wrong answer to the wrong question posed at the wrong time.
I have every faith that Labour are going to do what the Tories did after 1997 and what Labour did after 79.. id est waste at least 10 yrs in denial.
Its very hard when you have campaigned for policies ABCD to accept that they were all wrong and that policies EFGH are the right course.. easier said than done and it needs a clear out of most of the old guard.. There are too many old guard people in the Labour party with links to the unions to affect sudden and real change IMHO.. I'll believe it when I see it..
Wonderfully, I think you could be right.
Jarvis was a worry, but he's gone.
Liz Kendall is slightly anxiety inducing, but there is great hostility to her, thank God.
Yvette is a modest concern, mildly likeable but a tad robotic. Zero charisma, Tristram could be a new Blair, with all that means, so he has no chance with Labourites.
Yet I reckon they will go for Burnham or Chuka. Billy Elliot versus a young Johnny Mathis.
Burnham? Cooper?
Burnham: Chief Secretary to the Treasury - June 2007 – January 2008 Cooper: Chief Secretary to the Treasury - January 2008 – June 2009
Just what do those dates remind you of? And Coopers real name is Mrs Balls.
BTW their predecessor at CS to T was Stephen Timms and he has the largest majority of any socialist on the planet.
Rod Grimond won 6 seats in 1959, in 9 in 1964 and 12 in 1966, Steel won 11 in 1979, 23 in 1983 and 22 in 1987
hunchman The main 'root and branch' reform the party needs to do is to run as far away from the Coalition as possible and try and win back some Labour tactical votes in Tory-LD marginals
The main thing the Lib Dems needed to do, and which ALL the other minor parties did at the election was make clear their prefferred partner after the GE.
They were neither fish nor fowl when it came to it.
A VERY good point. Had not even noticed, but bang on.
But tacking back left is only going to work if the Tories implode (which they might). Otherwise the LD's will be up against loads of first-time incumbents in their former seats, and elsewhere the lefty space is already occupied by the Greens.
They are properly screwed.
The Greens are relatively new to the lefty space though, and a Farron leadership could change their position - particularly since it could be argued, that as second-placers in the South West they are the only potential challengers to the Conservatives. The Greens have not got a shot at getting those South West seats. Farron's task will be in these kinds of seats, to unite the centre-left vote - it was the collapse of that tactical vote that really killed the LDs in these seats. This why I don't necessarily think it's key that the Tories 'implode', but I think by 2020 they'll be a lot more unpopular than they are now - with the issues of another recession, interest rates, Scotland, austerity, EU ref, the reaction towards BBC policy, whether the new leader is electable etc.
Fox Yesterdays news? Chuka was only elected in 2010
TheApocalypse Chuka is also favoured by Blairites, has emphasised the need for Labour to recapture the language of aspiration and is Mandelson's favoured candidate
Chuka is favoured by Blairites? Mandelson's favourite candidate? Turns out PLP members clapping Harman's anti-Mandelson message may just be a blessing in disguise!
On more substantial matters, I have good news and bad news.
The good news is that my GE2015 betting account has been approved by Higher Authority, and my Licence to Carry Out Political Betting has been, as I expected, extended without demur.
The bad news is that there is disturbing talk of a Milbandesque raid on my profits, a sort of windfall tax, diverting them from the good use I had pencilled in - the Nabavi Claret Fund - to more mundane purposes. I've tried to argue that this will damage incentives and act as a brake on entrepreneurial zeal, but so far without success.
If Miliband had pledged to make Paddy Power freeze all their prices for the next 5 years, he might even have been blessed with the Tissue Price X.
Rod Grimond won 6 seats in 1959, in 9 in 1964 and 12 in 1966, Steel won 11 in 1979, 23 in 1983 and 22 in 1987
hunchman The main 'root and branch' reform the party needs to do is to run as far away from the Coalition as possible and try and win back some Labour tactical votes in Tory-LD marginals
Without Grimond they would probably have gone down to 3 or something....
Rod a massive credit to you for the election results. You're the only serious punter I can think of who both predicted so firmly both a Hung Parliament in 2010 and a Tory lead and possible majority in 2015.
I thought you were just being contrarian, but you've been proven correct both times now, well done! How many long need to pass before you can start to predict 2020?
One feature of the election night coverage I hated as an orienteer was the Hexagonal dots for each of the parties. Its such an artificial construct, and leads to a horribly contorted map of Britain - I wish they coloured in the constituencies in line with their actual position on a map of the Britain. The latter was actually much better, as it clearly showed the 'atomisation' of the electoral map with Labour now just an urban party of England along with its South Wales heartland and a few honourable exceptions eg Ynys Mon, Clwyd South.
Of the 8 Lib Dem victories, 2 of them (Clegg and Mulholland) were only due to Tories voting tactically Lib Dem - the Tory vote in Lib Dem Labour marginals has finally woken up to the realities of FPTP and voted tactically for the first time. The relatively small falls of Jo Swinson and Crockart in Edinburgh W were also clearly aided by Tory tactical voting. This may help any future Lib Dem revival where the Tories don't stand a chance in future. The other 6 Lib Dem victories were all because there was enough of a majority to cushion the swing against them.
Personally I don't think Farron will be the answer to the Lib Dems problems. Whilst undoubtedly he's a great campaigner, I think he lacks the necessary gravitas to launch a root and branch reform of the party. I would have thought that Norman Lamb would be the better long term choice as far as they are concerned.
The LD's won't be getting those tactical Tory votes if they pick Farron, will they?
I would honestly make the LD spread next time at something like 10-12 - and that's only high because of the possibility of a major shock to the system. Where on earth are they going to make gains?
Politically I am closer to Lamb than Fallon, but I shall be going for the latter, and as a party member I do have a vote.
Fallon is undoubtably energetic, and will put in the miles around the country on the stump.
He is the man for these times.
Any thoughts on the prices? I was minded to lay Farron at anything 2/5 or shorter.
Also, won't his evangelical Christianity be something of a hurdle in the wider party?
Survation bloke talking BS on Newsnight...he said the inquiry wont find anything wrog with methodology / sampling, oh we just didn't pick up late swing.
BUT BUT BUT ICM were polling into the GE day itself, and YouGov repolled people after they voted (I believe 20,000 people)....and what did they report....neck and neck..in fact ICM late polling had the trend going the other way, in favour of Labour.
Survation bloke talking BS on Newsnight...he said the inquiry wont find anything wrog with methodology / sampling, oh we just didn't pick up late swing.
BUT BUT BUT ICM were polling into the GE day itself, and YouGov repolled people after they voted (I believe 20,000 people)....and what did they report....neck and neck..
Given so much voting nowadays is postal voting, how could late swing apply to that?
'Rod Grimond won 6 seats in 1959, in 9 in 1964 and 12 in 1966, Steel won 11 in 1979, 23 in 1983 and 22 in 1987
hunchman The main 'root and branch' reform the party needs to do is to run as far away from the Coalition as possible and try and win back some Labour tactical votes in Tory-LD marginals'
So from 6 to 11 seats in 20 years and then a further 11 seats eight years later aided by the partial break up of the Labour party, but essentially within a two party system .
Gives the scale of the mountain they have to climb.
There was no late swing. There's just been a Tory lead for months that's been undetected. I'm convinced of this. There is no way it was really level between Con and Lab, and suddenly on polling day a seven-point swing towards the Tories occurred.
Harriet Harman cheered after telling Labour MPs not to listen to Mandelson apparently
The tories will be delighted hearing that..
time.
I have every faith that Labour are going to do what the Tories did after 1997 and what .
Wonderfully, I think you could be right.
Jarvis was a worry, but he's gone.
Liz Kendall is slightly anxiety inducing, but there is great hostility to her, thank God.
Yvette is a modest concern, mildly likeable but a tad robotic. Zero charisma, Tristram could be a new Blair, with all that means, so he has no chance with Labourites.
Yet I reckon they will go for Burnham or Chuka. Billy Elliot versus a young Johnny Mathis.
Burnham? Cooper?
Burnham: Chief Secretary to the Treasury - June 2007 – January 2008 Cooper: Chief Secretary to the Treasury - January 2008 – June 2009
Just what do those dates remind you of? And Coopers real name is Mrs Balls.
BTW their predecessor at CS to T was Stephen Timms and he has the largest majority of any socialist on the planet.
I do not see Cooper standing.
Would her suffering what some call ME be a liability?
One feature of the election night coverage I hated as an orienteer was the Hexagonal dots for each of the parties. Its such an artificial construct, and leads to a horribly contorted map of Britain - I wish they coloured in the constituencies in line with their actual position on a map of the Britain. The latter was actually much better, as it clearly showed the 'atomisation' of the electoral map with Labour now just an urban party of England along with its South Wales heartland and a few honourable exceptions eg Ynys Mon, Clwyd South.
Of the 8 Lib Dem victories, 2 of them (Clegg and Mulholland) were only due to Tories voting tactically Lib Dem - the Tory vote in Lib Dem Labour marginals has finally woken up to the realities of FPTP and voted tactically for the first time. The relatively small falls of Jo Swinson and Crockart in Edinburgh W were also clearly aided by Tory tactical voting. This may help any future Lib Dem revival where the Tories don't stand a chance in future. The other 6 Lib Dem victories were all because there was enough of a majority to cushion the swing against them.
Personally I don't think Farron will be the answer to the Lib Dems problems. Whilst undoubtedly he's a great campaigner, I think he lacks the necessary gravitas to launch a root and branch reform of the party. I would have thought that Norman Lamb would be the better long term choice as far as they are concerned.
The LD's won't be getting those tactical Tory votes if they pick Farron, will they?
I would honestly make the LD spread next time at something like 10-12 - and that's only high because of the possibility of a major shock to the system. Where on earth are they going to make gains?
Politically I am closer to Lamb than Fallon, but I shall be going for the latter, and as a party member I do have a vote.
Fallon is undoubtably energetic, and will put in the miles around the country on the stump.
He is the man for these times.
Any thoughts on the prices? I was minded to lay Farron at anything 2/5 or shorter.
Also, won't his evangelical Christianity be something of a hurdle in the wider party?
Didn't Jesus wear sandals and have a beard? I do not envy Farron his job of washing their feet.
Kellner also not being straight. He poo poo that anybody knew...but again there was several leaks from CCHQ, that
a) Tories were ahead Jan, b) they were pulling ahead Feb / March c) 2 days before the GE, there was a specific leak reported by the Guardian that said Crosby is telling Tory high command 306+.
Remember IOS / Compuetor2 constantly taking the piss out of Crosby for the telling insiders that cross over had occurred and Tories were pulling away.
One feature of the election night coverage I hated as an orienteer was the Hexagonal dots for each of the parties. Its such an artificial construct, and leads to a horribly contorted map of Britain - I wish they coloured in the constituencies in line with their actual position on a map of the Britain. The latter was actually much better, as it clearly showed the 'atomisation' of the electoral map with Labour now just an urban party of England along with its South Wales heartland and a few honourable exceptions eg Ynys Mon, Clwyd South.
Personally I don't think Farron will be the answer to the Lib Dems problems. Whilst undoubtedly he's a great campaigner, I think he lacks the necessary gravitas to launch a root and branch reform of the party. I would have thought that Norman Lamb would be the better long term choice as far as they are concerned.
The LD's won't be getting those tactical Tory votes if they pick Farron, will they?
I would honestly make the LD spread next time at something like 10-12 - and that's only high because of the possibility of a major shock to the system. Where on earth are they going to make gains?
Politically I am closer to Lamb than Fallon, but I shall be going for the latter, and as a party member I do have a vote.
Fallon is undoubtably energetic, and will put in the miles around the country on the stump.
He is the man for these times.
Any thoughts on the prices? I was minded to lay Farron at anything 2/5 or shorter.
Also, won't his evangelical Christianity be something of a hurdle in the wider party?
His odds are too short for me, but he is clearly the favourite, so probably about right. I would buy if he went to 2 or more.
I am a Christian myself (though not evangelical) so it is not a problem to me. LDs are fairly tolerant of eccentricity. It does give him a certain socially conservative basis to match more left wing economic views, which together with his northern roots could do well regaining kippers, particularly if the euro-ref puts that issue to bed.
'Remember IOS / Compuetor2 constantly taking the piss out of Crosby for the telling insiders that cross over had occurred and Tories were pulling away.'
Remember it well combined with a piss take of Rod Crosby's prediction models, no wonder they have done a runner.
Also surprised that nobody on Newsnight raised the point about a first question of 'Are you registered to vote'.
Cooper has been ill which is sad for her. For whatever reason she seems to me to have very little political bottle. She also has little political nouse, but that has nothing to do with health or spirit.
Fox Chuka has links to both Miliband, Compass (who he worked for) and Blairites
A man for all seasons? But what does he believe in other than himself?
Labour would go backwards under Chuka, his media performances are polished but vacuous and he consistently fails the third question test.
Kendall is a much more natural media performer, with a disarming style of actually answering a question. She will outperform him in any leadership debate.
Rod Grimond won 6 seats in 1959, in 9 in 1964 and 12 in 1966, Steel won 11 in 1979, 23 in 1983 and 22 in 1987
hunchman The main 'root and branch' reform the party needs to do is to run as far away from the Coalition as possible and try and win back some Labour tactical votes in Tory-LD marginals
The main thing the Lib Dems needed to do, and which ALL the other minor parties did at the election was make clear their prefferred partner after the GE.
They were neither fish nor fowl when it came to it.
Its hard to name anybody when you are wearing your underpants on your head with 2 pencils stuck up your nostrils going 'wibble wibble wibble'. All of which makes more sense than the LDs position over the previous 5 years.
The LDs are clearly not interested in coalition with anybody anytime anywhere ever again. They have no purpose in life. They do not want serious opposition or even half serious government. If they say now they prefer labour they will see themselves lose tory votes; if they say Tory they will lose labour votes. They are a nothing. What is their point? Furthermore it would be a strange electorate that did not notice this.
Let me say, I do find this sad compared to where things were in 2010. But its their bed and they have fallen out of it.
JohnZims I think Farron could get 20-30 seats if he goes back to a more centre left, social democratic party
Which seats? The crisis for whoever become LD leader is not just the lack of seats but the lack of second places. That will make recovering seats far tougher.
You know it is less likely than UKIP winning a majority....
Also have an EICIPM bet still open
Both for 2p.. sounds fair.
O/T, just looking through the previous Greek elections... if you want a barmy electoral system... in the first election in 2012, the ruling party had a swing against it of 15%, but still GAINED 17 seats in the parliament. LOL
Cooper has been ill which is sad for her. For whatever reason she seems to me to have very little political bottle. She also has little political nouse, but that has nothing to do with health or spirit.
I think that both members of that household are now wondering what to do next. Apart from anything else there will be a vote Cooper get Balls meme within the party.
There are going to be a fair few disappointed voters in the seat that Farage just fought and lost, how many tactically voted to keep him out in the hope that he would be a man of his word and resign?
You know it is less likely than UKIP winning a majority....
Also have an EICIPM bet still open
Both for 2p.. sounds fair.
O/T, just looking through the previous Greek elections... if you want a barmy electoral system... in the first election in 2012, the ruling party had a swing against it of 15%, but still GAINED 17 seats in the parliament. LOL
Not true. The ruling party was PASOK and they lost 119 seats. ND gained seats despite losing share as they overtook PASOK - but between the two parties there was a net loss of over 100 seats.
PT Seats like Lewes, Eastbourne, Bath, Twickenham etc where the LDs were second with significant Labour votes to squeeze. In Lewes for example the Tories won by 3% and Labour won 9%
Rod Grimond won 6 seats in 1959, in 9 in 1964 and 12 in 1966, Steel won 11 in 1979, 23 in 1983 and 22 in 1987
hunchman The main 'root and branch' reform the party needs to do is to run as far away from the Coalition as possible and try and win back some Labour tactical votes in Tory-LD marginals
Without Grimond they would probably have gone down to 3 or something....
Rod a massive credit to you for the election results. You're the only serious punter I can think of who both predicted so firmly both a Hung Parliament in 2010 and a Tory lead and possible majority in 2015.
I thought you were just being contrarian, but you've been proven correct both times now, well done! How many long need to pass before you can start to predict 2020?
Thank-you. A lot is down to luck, and a natural scepticism of the herd view.
A gut feeling, as an essentially non-partisan voter, and a recognition that the polls are not infallible. On the contrary, they are usually fallible - only the degree is in question...
The only real doubt I had was that a Con majority would be narrowly missed by virtue of the LibDems holding up much better than they did. Nobody's perfect. (^_-)
You know it is less likely than UKIP winning a majority....
Also have an EICIPM bet still open
Both for 2p.. sounds fair.
O/T, just looking through the previous Greek elections... if you want a barmy electoral system... in the first election in 2012, the ruling party had a swing against it of 15%, but still GAINED 17 seats in the parliament. LOL
Not true. The ruling party was PASOK and they lost 119 seats. ND gained seats despite losing share as they overtook PASOK - but between the two parties there was a net loss of over 100 seats.
Ah I meant the governing party after the election (or should I have said winners) - ND.
Fox Kendall may make a half decent deputy she is not really leadership material. Chuka could be PM in 5 years in my view, but I know it is not held by all
PT Seats like Lewes, Eastbourne, Bath, Twickenham etc where the LDs were second with significant Labour votes to squeeze. In Lewes for example the Tories won by 3% and Labour won 9%
If the LDs turn left they risk losing votes in places like those. Plus getting to 20-30 of those seats which will react well to any particular plan. The advantage the LDs used to have is a large platform of second places to start from.
PT Seats like Lewes, Eastbourne, Bath, Twickenham etc where the LDs were second with significant Labour votes to squeeze. In Lewes for example the Tories won by 3% and Labour won 9%
If the LDs turn left they risk losing votes in places like those. Plus getting to 20-30 of those seats which will react well to any particular plan. The advantage the LDs used to have is a large platform of second places to start from.
It'll be very interesting to see if the LibDems stage any sort of recovery in the local elections next year.
It'll also be very interesting to see how UKIP builds its councillor (and council) base over the next few years.
Philip Thompson Well the LDs were pretty leftwing under Charles Kennedy and won all those seats, they lost them under Clegg when he was in coalition with the Tories
Pulpstar Scotland is going to get yet more powers, maybe even FFA, Labour should focus on England and Wales and maybe winning back a handful of seats from the SNP in 2020
Rod I don't see why, it may be more difficult but the Canadian Liberal Party won general elections in Canada even when Quebec nationalists won 50 seats. Labour may also be able to do a deal with the LDs. If the voters are fed up with the Tories and want a Labour PM they will elect a Labour PM and a Labour led or Labour government
There are going to be a fair few disappointed voters in the seat that Farage just fought and lost, how many tactically voted to keep him out in the hope that he would be a man of his word and resign?
On more substantial matters, I have good news and bad news.
The good news is that my GE2015 betting account has been approved by Higher Authority, and my Licence to Carry Out Political Betting has been, as I expected, extended without demur.
The bad news is that there is disturbing talk of a Milbandesque raid on my profits, a sort of windfall tax, diverting them from the good use I had pencilled in - the Nabavi Claret Fund - to more mundane purposes. I've tried to argue that this will damage incentives and act as a brake on entrepreneurial zeal, but so far without success.
Rod I don't see why, it may be more difficult but the Canadian Liberal Party won general elections in Canada even when Quebec nationalists won 50 seats. Labour may also be able to do a deal with the LDs
But weren't the Canadian Tories in disarray? I also suspect that Canada is a more egalitarian and modern society, with fewer people viewing the Quebecois question as equivalent to Sinn Fein SNP holding the country to ransom - as portrayed by the Tories and rightwing press here....
We'll need to see who Labour elect as leader before we can speculate fully on 2020, but the SNP are a huge problem for them now.
Labour must plan without Scotland. Scotland will be independent sooner or later. The English public were told and many accepted that they were like the plague. This after we begged them to remain within the Union.
Rod True, but who knows what will happen to the UK Tories post EU ref. Most Canadians were just as fed up with the Quebec nationalists demands as the English are with the Scots nats.
There are going to be a fair few disappointed voters in the seat that Farage just fought and lost, how many tactically voted to keep him out in the hope that he would be a man of his word and resign?
We'll need to see who Labour elect as leader before we can speculate fully on 2020, but the SNP are a huge problem for them now.
Labour must plan without Scotland. Scotland will be independent sooner or later. The English public were told and many accepted that they were like the plague. This after we begged them to remain within the Union.
Agreed. And the last time Labour were 100 seats behind (1987), it took them 10 years and a Blair to come back...
Labour will probably get another crap leader, because no-one with real ambition would want the job.
Surbiton I don't see why, Scotland is the only home nation ever to have endorsed the Union, what they want is more powers, not full independence, and Cameron is sensibly moving in that direction
Rod Not necessarily if they are largest party and Farron wins about 25-30 seats they only need to win about 70 seats and then do a deal with the LDs. The public mood is also volatile at the moment with higher than average swing in the marginals compared to UNS, that could be the same with swingback
Plaid are essentially a Welsh language preservation society, destined to be competitive in only 5 Westminster seats, but never at the same time, of course...
Rod Labour gained seats in England in 2015 and added a small increase in UK voteshare, if the public get fed up with the Tories in 2020 and Labour have an appealing enough leader and message they will elect Labour, simple
Rod No if Labour win 70 seats and the LDs 25-30 then Labour don't need to do a deal with the SNP for a majority, they could even add the Greens and SDLP to be sure
Rod Labour gained seats in England in 2015 and added a small increase in UK voteshare, if the public get fed up with the Tories in 2020 and Labour have an appealing enough leader and message they will elect Labour, simple
While simultaneously hiding the SNP elephant from English voters?
RodCrosby As I explained below if the LDs gain a few seats Labour can govern without the SNP in coalition with them even if they do not gain 100 seats. In any case by 2020 Scotland will have yet more powers and will be largely self-governing anyway, leaving Labour to focus on England and Wales while the Tories cope with the fall-out from EU ref, especially large for them if a narrow In, night
Comments
TheApocalypse Chuka is also favoured by Blairites, has emphasised the need for Labour to recapture the language of aspiration and is Mandelson's favoured candidate
They are properly screwed.
But while Liz may lose a few votes for being pragmatic rather than ideological, she will gain others for the same reason.
She has the chromosome advantage too, both the Lab 2010 and 2015 intake are more female, and I think that these new guard want to take power.
'I thought there was something slightly aristocratic about Stella Creasy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stella_Creasy'
Wiki entry also reveals that she has never had a job in the real world.
At the back of my head during the campaign when we had Balls or Miliband I think rebutting that business were coming out for Tory's, I'm sure I had them pointing to Lord Sugar as one well known supporter... yet in private they would have known....
Now if it was the other way round, that contractors could not be employed on higher rates than permies, they would get all the votes of permanent IT staff.
Good night all.
They were neither fish nor fowl when it came to it.
Tbf to Cameron, he apparently had to have one of the largest swings in history in order to get a majority in 2010. Astoundingly little progress got made in terms of seats in 2001, and 2005.
Interesting you mention Vale of Clwyd, did some phoning there the Monday before polling day (Jamie Davis is a friend of a friend) and not a bad reaction and so it proved
Excellent job with the prediction!
Fallon is undoubtably energetic, and will put in the miles around the country on the stump.
He is the man for these times.
Burnham: Chief Secretary to the Treasury - June 2007 – January 2008
Cooper: Chief Secretary to the Treasury - January 2008 – June 2009
Just what do those dates remind you of? And Coopers real name is Mrs Balls.
BTW their predecessor at CS to T was Stephen Timms and he has the largest majority of any socialist on the planet.
I do not see Cooper standing.
I thought you were just being contrarian, but you've been proven correct both times now, well done! How many long need to pass before you can start to predict 2020?
You can just imagine Mandelson and Blair pis*ing themselves laughing at that.
Also, won't his evangelical Christianity be something of a hurdle in the wider party?
BUT BUT BUT ICM were polling into the GE day itself, and YouGov repolled people after they voted (I believe 20,000 people)....and what did they report....neck and neck..in fact ICM late polling had the trend going the other way, in favour of Labour.
'Rod Grimond won 6 seats in 1959, in 9 in 1964 and 12 in 1966, Steel won 11 in 1979, 23 in 1983 and 22 in 1987
hunchman The main 'root and branch' reform the party needs to do is to run as far away from the Coalition as possible and try and win back some Labour tactical votes in Tory-LD marginals'
So from 6 to 11 seats in 20 years and then a further 11 seats eight years later aided by the partial break up of the Labour party, but essentially within a two party system .
Gives the scale of the mountain they have to climb.
Pulpstar Farron would be clear his choice is Labour
I do not envy Farron his job of washing their feet.
Ahh... its getting late.
a) Tories were ahead Jan,
b) they were pulling ahead Feb / March
c) 2 days before the GE, there was a specific leak reported by the Guardian that said Crosby is telling Tory high command 306+.
Remember IOS / Compuetor2 constantly taking the piss out of Crosby for the telling insiders that cross over had occurred and Tories were pulling away.
I am a Christian myself (though not evangelical) so it is not a problem to me. LDs are fairly tolerant of eccentricity. It does give him a certain socially conservative basis to match more left wing economic views, which together with his northern roots could do well regaining kippers, particularly if the euro-ref puts that issue to bed.
Harman's comments got applause, I suspect because there is a desire to move on from that factionalism. Split parties do not get elected.
07/01/2013 Single To Win
Ed Balls @ 7/2
Next Chancellor
Next Chancellor £50.00 Pending
'Remember IOS / Compuetor2 constantly taking the piss out of Crosby for the telling insiders that cross over had occurred and Tories were pulling away.'
Remember it well combined with a piss take of Rod Crosby's prediction models, no wonder they have done a runner.
Also surprised that nobody on Newsnight raised the point about a first question of 'Are you registered to vote'.
Cooper has been ill which is sad for her. For whatever reason she seems to me to have very little political bottle.
She also has little political nouse, but that has nothing to do with health or spirit.
Labour would go backwards under Chuka, his media performances are polished but vacuous and he consistently fails the third question test.
Kendall is a much more natural media performer, with a disarming style of actually answering a question. She will outperform him in any leadership debate.
The LDs are clearly not interested in coalition with anybody anytime anywhere ever again. They have no purpose in life. They do not want serious opposition or even half serious government. If they say now they prefer labour they will see themselves lose tory votes; if they say Tory they will lose labour votes. They are a nothing. What is their point? Furthermore it would be a strange electorate that did not notice this.
Let me say, I do find this sad compared to where things were in 2010. But its their bed and they have fallen out of it.
O/T, just looking through the previous Greek elections... if you want a barmy electoral system... in the first election in 2012, the ruling party had a swing against it of 15%, but still GAINED 17 seats in the parliament. LOL
A gut feeling, as an essentially non-partisan voter, and a recognition that the polls are not infallible. On the contrary, they are usually fallible - only the degree is in question...
I nailed my colours to the mast almost a year ago.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/
The only real doubt I had was that a Con majority would be narrowly missed by virtue of the LibDems holding up much better than they did. Nobody's perfect. (^_-)
It'll also be very interesting to see how UKIP builds its councillor (and council) base over the next few years.
Another 10 years at least.
Labour will probably get another crap leader, because no-one with real ambition would want the job.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/597933788346359808
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/597934151447240705
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/597933396283777024
Not looking good.
OK better try this one:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/597948732060073985
Interesting plan....
Cameron didn't have to worry about "Are you going to get into bed with the SNP?"
POO TORIES POO CAMERON IS POOPING FOREVER!! POO!! POOOO!! THE TORIES ARE MADE OF ACTUAL POO POO POO
https://twitter.com/TORY_POO
EDIT OK, Maybe not SFW.
Caught up on YouTube in light of the BAFTAS [you'll need unblocker for episode one]
Sensationally good stuff. Jason Watkins was utterly brilliant, one of the most mesmerising performances I've seen in my lifetime.