AndyJS There was a swing in the marginals above UNS this election, no reason there could not be a swingback larger than UNS if the circumstances are right, especially given the marginals are the focus of most campaigning
'Labour's election pollster says public polls "showed a much more favourable position for Labour than we were finding in our internal data" both before the campaign and during it.'
Enjoy your lefty, love in bashing while it lasts. Labour lost the last two elections because of terrible, terrible, terrible leadership choices. Provided it doesn't make another terrible choice I fully expect the political gravity to return shortly to the centre progressives, i.e. Labour.
Not without Scotland it won't. And Scotland is not coming back to Labour, there is no logical reason for this to happen.
And you were TEN points behind the Tories in England. And UKIP is gobbling up your WWC core.
If the Tories don't implode over the EUref, then Labour will find it very very hard to get a majority in 2020. Best hope is a plurality. And if the Tories time the next economic boomlet right, you will lose again.
Given that the last elections labour won they would have won without Scotland why do you say that?
That was pre-UKIP (as well as pre-indyref). I do believe the political topography has fundamentally altered, for Labour, and not to their advantage.
Of course in time "a" Labour party will govern again, but it may take 10 years, or even 15, not 5, and that Labour party might be considerably more rightwing than the one we see today. And who knows, it might have a different name and constitution. It may, for instance, absorb the leftwing LDs, if that party entirely dies.
All is changed.
I don't think it's in the British electorate's DNA to welcome a Conservative government. Any time the Labour Party even pays lip service to sanity and credibility it gets elected. The electorate place a considerably lower credibility bar to left-wing politicians. All they have to do is find a leader even half-attractive and present a programme which is even half-coherent. Unfortunately, for most of the last forty years, this has proved entirely beyond them.* But there's no reason they can't do so in 2020, especially rid of the rules which give one third of the votes to Len McCluskey.
*With the exception of Jim Callaghan, who would have fitted the bill entirely but came to power in a time and situation almost anyone would have struggled to win from.
< 2. On the lsit vote, on current performance, again, SLAB are going down to about a quarter of the vote - whereas the Tories have a pretty solid core vote of about a sixth. But don't forget the LDs and UKIP will be squeezing each a little, and the Tories will find it more worthwhile to vote for their own. The Greens and SSP will also be hitting Labour, and I think our PBer colleagues are right in suspecting that a SNP constituency-Green list vote will be a significant factor.
SLAB were on 26% of the List vote IN 2011.
They aren't going down to 25%. They are going down FROM 25% perhaps to less than 15%.
If that's the case the 'Pouter tactical voting wheels will often be better off urging Labour voters to vote tactically for the Tories ... doesn't really compute, does it?
'Labour's election pollster says public polls "showed a much more favourable position for Labour than we were finding in our internal data" both before the campaign and during it.'
"The main difference between our polls and the newspaper polls is that we don't ask the voting intention first... we first ask respondents to think about the country, the economy, their top issues, the parties and the leaders. We think it gets them closer to their ballot box mindset."
Pulpstar Not if they get more powers, especially something appraching FFA. As I set out below I would not rule out a Labour return in 2020 either, especially if the LDs also see a mini revival and there is a return of Labour tactical voting in Tory-LD marginals
@SeanT - I had a well-known right wing thriller writer wish death on me online merely because I am a leftie.
As I said, the commenters below the line have always been nuts.
I would not have published that feisty remark in, say, a Telegraph blog.
There's nothing new in the self-righteous nonsense some on the left indulge in. It's been the same for as long as I can remember. Same with the vitriol. It has its roots in direct confrontation with the state. We now know the police in the 70s and 80s were often violent liars, but back then the activist left and trade unionists were routinely physically assaulted and harrassed, and nothing happened. It fostered a violence of language and outlook that is unfortunately still with us today.
Enjoy your lefty, love in bashing while it lasts. Labour lost the last two elections because of terrible, terrible, terrible leadership choices. Provided it doesn't make another terrible choice I fully expect the political gravity to return shortly to the centre progressives, i.e. Labour.
With the right leader (and no one can doubt Liz Kendall's ambition!) Labour can make a quick comeback. While 100 seats are needed for a majority, 50-60 would put The Tories on the opposition benches. Very do-able, particularly if the LDs make a recovery too. Remember: when Labour gain seats, so do the Lib dems (and vice versa). It has been true for decades.
Come on comrades! There is work to be done!
This election had a lot of fairly half-hearted Tory voters. The last 5 years were OK, not great, for many people. Combined with the leadership factor this put a lot of crosses in Con boxes. This election was 2001 rather than 1992, with Ed Miliband as William Hague. The difference is that Tony Blair had a 180 seat majority, not 6 seats.
You confuse me. I can't work out whom you support or why!
Casino- I think our good Doctor Fox is a pragmatist who rather likes to see good governance but enjoys the cut and thrust of political debate. Very hard to pidgeonhole this sort.
Enjoy your lefty, love in bashing while it lasts. Labour lost the last two elections because of terrible, terrible, terrible leadership choices. Provided it doesn't make another terrible choice I fully expect the political gravity to return shortly to the centre progressives, i.e. Labour.
With the right leader (and no one can doubt Liz Kendall's ambition!) Labour can make a quick comeback. While 100 seats are needed for a majority, 50-60 would put The Tories on the opposition benches. Very do-able, particularly if the LDs make a recovery too. Remember: when Labour gain seats, so do the Lib dems (and vice versa). It has been true for decades.
Come on comrades! There is work to be done!
This election had a lot of fairly half-hearted Tory voters. The last 5 years were OK, not great, for many people. Combined with the leadership factor this put a lot of crosses in Con boxes. This election was 2001 rather than 1992, with Ed Miliband as William Hague. The difference is that Tony Blair had a 180 seat majority, not 6 seats.
I can't work out whom you support or why!
If only I could achieve such enigmatic quality - sadly, people hardly ever accuse me of being a Labour supporter thesedays, despite all those predictions of Labour victory, certainly not compared to those who accuse me of being Tory.
Happens to us all. It was suggested I might be a Kipper abuse throwing Tory earlier on here, or at least not understand why that was a problem with some Tories.
< 2. On the lsit vote, on current performance, again, SLAB are going down to about a quarter of the vote - whereas the Tories have a pretty solid core vote of about a sixth. But don't forget the LDs and UKIP will be squeezing each a little, and the Tories will find it more worthwhile to vote for their own. The Greens and SSP will also be hitting Labour, and I think our PBer colleagues are right in suspecting that a SNP constituency-Green list vote will be a significant factor.
SLAB were on 26% of the List vote IN 2011.
They aren't going down to 25%. They are going down FROM 25% perhaps to less than 15%.
If that's the case the 'Pouter tactical voting wheels will often be better off urging Labour voters to vote tactically for the Tories ... doesn't really compute, does it?
I think 25% might be Labour's core vote, like 16% is tory core vote in Scotland. I don't see much more fall in the immediate future.
There was a message on here about a shop that wanted Tory voters to identify themselves so he could add a 10% "tax".
I thought it was a joke. Turns out the guy (shop in Lewes) really meant his anger - but only one person had so far admitted to being a Tory after they had paid.
This must be discriminatory and illegal, surely?
Probably, until the HRA is scrapped, when it's OK.
Similar lefty garbage to that about foodbanks. You say HRA being scrapped, but you don't say HRA being scrapped and replaced by a British Bill of Human Rights. Do you really think that there won't be reasonable rights laid out in our bill?
Memo to self - start using smilies so people know what is meant to be a joke or not.
PS Nice to be classed as a leftie again. As a Lib Dem who thinks governments should balance the books, I am classed as a rabid right-winger in some circles.
I was thinking I should have used they instead of you!
Enjoy your lefty, love in bashing while it lasts. Labour lost the last two elections because of terrible, terrible, terrible leadership choices. Provided it doesn't make another terrible choice I fully expect the political gravity to return shortly to the centre progressives, i.e. Labour.
With the right leader (and no one can doubt Liz Kendall's ambition!) Labour can make a quick comeback. While 100 seats are needed for a majority, 50-60 would put The Tories on the opposition benches. Very do-able, particularly if the LDs make a recovery too. Remember: when Labour gain seats, so do the Lib dems (and vice versa). It has been true for decades.
Come on comrades! There is work to be done!
This election had a lot of fairly half-hearted Tory voters. The last 5 years were OK, not great, for many people. Combined with the leadership factor this put a lot of crosses in Con boxes. This election was 2001 rather than 1992, with Ed Miliband as William Hague. The difference is that Tony Blair had a 180 seat majority, not 6 seats.
You confuse me. I can't work out whom you support or why!
Casino- I think our good Doctor Fox is a pragmatist who rather likes to see good governance but enjoys the cut and thrust of political debate. Very hard to pidgeonhole this sort.
'Labour's election pollster says public polls "showed a much more favourable position for Labour than we were finding in our internal data" both before the campaign and during it.'
"The main difference between our polls and the newspaper polls is that we don't ask the voting intention first... we first ask respondents to think about the country, the economy, their top issues, the parties and the leaders. We think it gets them closer to their ballot box mindset."
Now that is very interesting. It might prove to be Labour's most useful contribution over the last 5 years.
Dair In Kirckaldy in 2011 for instance the SNP won 45% Labour 44% the Tories 7%. In Aberdeen Central the SNP won 40%, Labour 37%, the Tories 12%. Both seats Tory tactical voting could win
'Labour's election pollster says public polls "showed a much more favourable position for Labour than we were finding in our internal data" both before the campaign and during it.'
"The main difference between our polls and the newspaper polls is that we don't ask the voting intention first... we first ask respondents to think about the country, the economy, their top issues, the parties and the leaders. We think it gets them closer to their ballot box mindset."
Now that is very interesting. It might prove to be Labour's most useful contribution over the last 5 years.
< 2. On the lsit vote, on current performance, again, SLAB are going down to about a quarter of the vote - whereas the Tories have a pretty solid core vote of about a sixth. But don't forget the LDs and UKIP will be squeezing each a little, and the Tories will find it more worthwhile to vote for their own. The Greens and SSP will also be hitting Labour, and I think our PBer colleagues are right in suspecting that a SNP constituency-Green list vote will be a significant factor.
SLAB were on 26% of the List vote IN 2011.
They aren't going down to 25%. They are going down FROM 25% perhaps to less than 15%.
If that's the case the 'Pouter tactical voting wheels will often be better off urging Labour voters to vote tactically for the Tories ... doesn't really compute, does it?
One thing computes.
Labour are finished in Scotland.
Why? Do you think the SNP are going to win all the seats for ever and ever?
There was a message on here about a shop that wanted Tory voters to identify themselves so he could add a 10% "tax".
I thought it was a joke. Turns out the guy (shop in Lewes) really meant his anger - but only one person had so far admitted to being a Tory after they had paid.
This must be discriminatory and illegal, surely?
Probably, until the HRA is scrapped, when it's OK.
Similar lefty garbage to that about foodbanks. You say HRA being scrapped, but you don't say HRA being scrapped and replaced by a British Bill of Human Rights. Do you really think that there won't be reasonable rights laid out in our bill?
Memo to self - start using smilies so people know what is meant to be a joke or not.
PS Nice to be classed as a leftie again. As a Lib Dem who thinks governments should balance the books, I am classed as a rabid right-winger in some circles.
I was thinking I should have used they instead of you!
'Labour's election pollster says public polls "showed a much more favourable position for Labour than we were finding in our internal data" both before the campaign and during it.'
"The main difference between our polls and the newspaper polls is that we don't ask the voting intention first... we first ask respondents to think about the country, the economy, their top issues, the parties and the leaders. We think it gets them closer to their ballot box mindset."
Sounds a better proposition than the Lib Dem private polling request to "think how amazing your local Liberal Democrat candidate is and how s/he is always thinking about how s/he can help you"
Dair In Kirckaldy in 2011 for instance the SNP won 45% Labour 44% the Tories 7%. In Aberdeen Central the SNP won 40%, Labour 37%, the Tories 12%. Both seats Tory tactical voting could win
'Labour's election pollster says public polls "showed a much more favourable position for Labour than we were finding in our internal data" both before the campaign and during it.'
@RobDotHutton: Carswell Unendorses Farage Unresignation. Includes chase down stairs, and Carswell refusing to say he's still in UKIP http://t.co/SvYafkLnPa
< 2. On the lsit vote, on current performance, again, SLAB are going down to about a quarter of the vote - whereas the Tories have a pretty solid core vote of about a sixth. But don't forget the LDs and UKIP will be squeezing each a little, and the Tories will find it more worthwhile to vote for their own. The Greens and SSP will also be hitting Labour, and I think our PBer colleagues are right in suspecting that a SNP constituency-Green list vote will be a significant factor.
SLAB were on 26% of the List vote IN 2011.
They aren't going down to 25%. They are going down FROM 25% perhaps to less than 15%.
If that's the case the 'Pouter tactical voting wheels will often be better off urging Labour voters to vote tactically for the Tories ... doesn't really compute, does it?
One thing computes.
Labour are finished in Scotland.
Why? Do you think the SNP are going to win all the seats for ever and ever?
No, they will move to competing with the Tories and the Greens.
Dair Yes it is, that was the last Holyrood result and Tories will be more likely to vote tactically in a Labour v SNP battle where there is no risk of electing a Labour government
I can get £7.28 (10 Euros I presume) on UKIP most seats online.
Now 250/1
LDs on the same. It is at least as possible for a Farronite LD party to do to Labour what Labour did to the Liberals in the 1920's, particularly if Labour choose the wrong leader.
Dair In Kirckaldy in 2011 for instance the SNP won 45% Labour 44% the Tories 7%. In Aberdeen Central the SNP won 40%, Labour 37%, the Tories 12%. Both seats Tory tactical voting could win
Why would Sottish Tories vote SLAB? Just swapping one kicking for another.
To win the next election on the current boundaries Labour needs a swing in England & Wales just 0.9% less than the one Blair achieved in 1997. 9.4% vs 10.3%. (Assumes Labour won't win back any Scottish seats from the SNP).
Who's the Blair in the Labour leadership election?
Liz Kendall. The ambition and vision of Blair, before Tony went over to the dark side to become (in)Vader.
Btw. Well done for your spot. I think you were the first on this board to bring our attention to her.
We shall see if it is a good tip when the race is over!
It is possible that her ambition is just a little bit too naked, but give me Liz Kendall's directness rather than Chuka's pretended coyness.
@RobDotHutton: Carswell Unendorses Farage Unresignation. Includes chase down stairs, and Carswell refusing to say he's still in UKIP http://t.co/SvYafkLnPa
Oh.
Please, please, please, please, please.
Not even a need for a by-election, he can continue to stand for the platform he was elected under as he wouldn't be taking another Whip.
< 2. On the lsit vote, on current performance, again, SLAB are going down to about a quarter of the vote - whereas the Tories have a pretty solid core vote of about a sixth. But don't forget the LDs and UKIP will be squeezing each a little, and the Tories will find it more worthwhile to vote for their own. The Greens and SSP will also be hitting Labour, and I think our PBer colleagues are right in suspecting that a SNP constituency-Green list vote will be a significant factor.
SLAB were on 26% of the List vote IN 2011.
They aren't going down to 25%. They are going down FROM 25% perhaps to less than 15%.
If that's the case the 'Pouter tactical voting wheels will often be better off urging Labour voters to vote tactically for the Tories ... doesn't really compute, does it?
One thing computes.
Labour are finished in Scotland.
Why? Do you think the SNP are going to win all the seats for ever and ever?
There's a difference between thinking they're going to hold most of their seats next time and thinking their going to win all the seats for ever and ever. The first is quite likely, the second not so.
Dair Yes it is, that was the last Holyrood result and Tories will be more likely to vote tactically in a Labour v SNP battle where there is no risk of electing a Labour government
So, let's get this straight.
You think the starting point to consider tactical voting in the 2016 Holyrood election is the state of the parties at Holyrood 2011?
It is hard to imagine you are making that claim with a straight face. You are trying to persuade me that it is legitimate to assume there have been no changes to Holyrood voting intention between 2011 and now?
< 2. On the lsit vote, on current performance, again, SLAB are going down to about a quarter of the vote - whereas the Tories have a pretty solid core vote of about a sixth. But don't forget the LDs and UKIP will be squeezing each a little, and the Tories will find it more worthwhile to vote for their own. The Greens and SSP will also be hitting Labour, and I think our PBer colleagues are right in suspecting that a SNP constituency-Green list vote will be a significant factor.
SLAB were on 26% of the List vote IN 2011.
They aren't going down to 25%. They are going down FROM 25% perhaps to less than 15%.
If that's the case the 'Pouter tactical voting wheels will often be better off urging Labour voters to vote tactically for the Tories ... doesn't really compute, does it?
One thing computes.
Labour are finished in Scotland.
Why? Do you think the SNP are going to win all the seats for ever and ever?
No, they will move to competing with the Tories and the Greens.
I would pmsl if the Tories came second at Holyrood next year! Are there any betting markets on it yet?
Will UKIP lose any Short Money if Carswell goes 'independent'? Would Farage be able find a convenient Polish neo nazi to be a stand in? Will Carswell resign and stand again, er because Farage did not resign and stand again?
Dair In Kirckaldy in 2011 for instance the SNP won 45% Labour 44% the Tories 7%. In Aberdeen Central the SNP won 40%, Labour 37%, the Tories 12%. Both seats Tory tactical voting could win
To win the next election on the current boundaries Labour needs a swing in England & Wales just 0.9% less than the one Blair achieved in 1997. 9.4% vs 10.3%. (Assumes Labour won't win back any Scottish seats from the SNP).
Who's the Blair in the Labour leadership election?
Liz Kendall. The ambition and vision of Blair, before Tony went over to the dark side to become (in)Vader.
Btw. Well done for your spot. I think you were the first on this board to bring our attention to her.
We shall see if it is a good tip when the race is over!
It is possible that her ambition is just a little bit too naked, but give me Liz Kendall's directness rather than Chuka's pretended coyness.
It's a great tip already, I'm laying Liz on Betfair right now
Backing that crucial contender in any leadership election "The field"
@RobDotHutton: Carswell Unendorses Farage Unresignation. Includes chase down stairs, and Carswell refusing to say he's still in UKIP http://t.co/SvYafkLnPa
That will be a massive loss if Carswell leaves UKIP. I don't agree with him on everything but he's clearly a man of substance and principle. What sort of unprofessional organisation doesn't even tell their MPs that their leader is walking back his resignation before they publicly announce it? For goodness sake, it's this sort of amateurishness that shows they need a more sophisticated leader than Farage the showman.
AndyJS There was a swing in the marginals above UNS this election, no reason there could not be a swingback larger than UNS if the circumstances are right, especially given the marginals are the focus of most campaigning
That's correct. The electorate does seem to be becoming more volatile so a big swing back to Labour isn't impossible in certain circumstances.
Think if all the PBers that were going to vote Ukip under a new leader but now will have to stick with their old party! #missedopportunity
For all the stick Farage is getting for being reinstated at the behest of the money men )and I think he should stay out) I have seen little criticism of Ed Balls alleged grubby attempt to get back in.
If he had won Thanet South by 1 vote and UKIP had got 8% you would have been happy for him to stay?
Basically unless Carswell wanted the job, it was going to be a non MP, so Farage's reason for stepping down (not being in Westminster) was bogus.. as it stands he is the best man for the job, and he is in he job
Rejoice!
The issue is one of credibility. He set a condition he'd resign by if he failed - and he failed. If he'd won South Thanet by 1 vote then that would have been a success not a failure.
The mistake was saying he'd resign if he didn't win in the first place. But once said, he should honour his pledges.
So even though it is worse for UKIP, he should resign to keep other parties supporters happy? OK
Anyway, he did resign, but they didn't accept it
Everyone's happy!
Though he made clear in his "resignation speech" that he didn't want to go.
Either way I'm amused that 12%, no new seats and only one of the defectors is considered a win now. Before the election we were being told that the vote share would at least be high teens and there would be a number of seats. Looks like both expectations were undershot. Rather than rewriting history to make that look like a success a reflection on what went wrong seems more credible if the party was intending to be serious.
"Before the election we were being told that the vote share would at least be high teens "
Who is rewriting history?
Are you claiming that no Kippers here weren't claiming there'd be a share in that high?
I distinctly recall a few people suggesting at least 16-18% as a vote share. No link though, but just off memory.
EDIT: I definitely DO NOT recall any Kipper (or others) suggesting a share in the single digits, so any comparisons of what was achieved against that don't work.
Dair Even at the 2015 general election in Aberdeen South for instance the SNP won 42%, Labour 27%, Tories 23%, so Labour and the Tories combined make 50%
Cobblers to your bollocks. ! Cameron has plainly said we do not want to be part of any ever closer union. 'Not want'. Given the Euro and Eurozone, that is the way the EU is going. We have to negotiate around that. 'That' being the non single market - the closer financial and political union. Being in the EEA is one option, but really as far as the single market and movement of labour it will not make much difference to us compared to now. But you come close to grasping the point. The EU is there even without us. A changing EU. It is not going to go away. Even the Euro, much to my amazement is not going to go away. We need renegotiation, we need a referendum. Inevitably there will be much hysteria on the way. Clearly it has started now.
So you accept what I said then. The Single Market is only one small part of the EU and we would be far better off out and just part of the EEA trading bloc. Only Europhiles like yourself are still trying to convince us there would be no difference between the two.
And as to negotiation it was always going to be and always will be bollocks. Right now Cameron is going on about repealing the HRA - which would mean leaving the ECHR. Which is funny given that the EU as a whole is currently in the latter stages of joining the ECHR in its own right which will just bring us straight back to where we are now.
I have said on various occasions that being in the EEA would not bother me. I've also said it would not make much difference but keep us out of the political stuff. I've said it above. I repeat - Cameron does not want closer union, very few Brits do. We are not in the euro and not likely to be. All of this means negotiations. Its likely we can get to stay in and be outside of the political and monetary bit. ie just like in the EEA bit with some say. Either way - the EU is still there and we will be in the single market. In or Out thats what European trade means The ECHR has nothing to do with the EU.
Wrong. The EU is the final stages of becoming a signatory to the ECHR in its own right. At that point all members will be bound by the convention whether they are independently members or not. You have been told this often enough over the last year and still ignore it as you appear to ignore anything that does not conform with your warped world view.
Will UKIP lose any Short Money if Carswell goes 'independent'? Would Farage be able find a convenient Polish neo nazi to be a stand in? Will Carswell resign and stand again, er because Farage did not resign and stand again?
@RobDotHutton: Carswell Unendorses Farage Unresignation. Includes chase down stairs, and Carswell refusing to say he's still in UKIP http://t.co/SvYafkLnPa
That will be a massive loss if Carswell leaves UKIP. I don't agree with him on everything but he's clearly a man of substance and principle. What sort of unprofessional organisation doesn't even tell their MPs that their leader is walking back his resignation before they publicly announce it? For goodness sake, it's this sort of amateurishness that shows they need a more sophisticated leader than Farage the showman.
Think if all the PBers that were going to vote Ukip under a new leader but now will have to stick with their old party! #missedopportunity
For all the stick Farage is getting for being reinstated at the behest of the money men )and I think he should stay out) I have seen little criticism of Ed Balls alleged grubby attempt to get back in.
If he had won Thanet South by 1 vote and UKIP had got 8% you would have been happy for him to stay?
Basically unless Carswell wanted the job, it was going to be a non MP, so Farage's reason for stepping down (not being in Westminster) was bogus.. as it stands he is the best man for the job, and he is in he job
Rejoice!
The issue is one of credibility. He set a condition he'd resign by if he failed - and he failed. If he'd won South Thanet by 1 vote then that would have been a success not a failure.
The mistake was saying he'd resign if he didn't win in the first place. But once said, he should honour his pledges.
So even though it is worse for UKIP, he should resign to keep other parties supporters happy? OK
Anyway, he did resign, but they didn't accept it
Everyone's happy!
Though he made clear in his "resignation speech" that he didn't want to go.
Either way I'm amused that 12%, no new seats and only one of the defectors is considered a win now. Before the election we were being told that the vote share would at least be high teens and there would be a number of seats. Looks like both expectations were undershot. Rather than rewriting history to make that look like a success a reflection on what went wrong seems more credible if the party was intending to be serious.
"Before the election we were being told that the vote share would at least be high teens "
Who is rewriting history?
Are you claiming that no Kippers here weren't claiming there'd be a share in that high?
I distinctly recall a few people suggesting at least 16-18% as a vote share. No link though, but just off memory.
I am sure some people claimed all sorts of things, but to pretend the standard claim was high teens is just bullshit
What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be to be British. I had always thought the accusation of being unpatriotic was an unfair smear from those on the hard right, as all the Labour voters I know in real life are very proud of their country. But many of these people seem to be openly attacking this country and its people. If they express this view in pubs and bars, it doesn't surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.
Now is the chance to truly and radically reform the governance of this nation, and change its political centre of gravity for good, so that such people (the hyper anglo-hating Left-wing activists) never get their hands on the reigns of power again.
When the Left do regain power again (which they will) I want it to be by a Leftist party that's a patriotic liberal social-democratic party. In the English reforming radical tradition.
Not a highly unionised, metropolitan sneering elite party, focussed mainly on social engineering, that is led by people who hold this nation and its voters in borderline contempt.
Very well said. The pity about the current Labour Party it seems to me is that it has lost touch with the best of its own history and traditions and with the best of British liberal reforming and radical traditions.
Hence the cul de sac of a sort of Top Trumps identity politics, an internationalism which seems to value foreigners over those in these islands and a slavish corporatist sucking up to the rich and powerful which seems to me to exemplify the worst of New Labour.
For all Mandelson's bile, New Labour was only successful because it had enough money from the City to spend like mad without having to tax the middle classes. Once the money ran out, what - really - did New Labour amount to?
Neither Brown nor Mandelson had the answer. Nor did EdM. Does anyone else in Labour? Do they even know what questions they should be asking?
'Labour's election pollster says public polls "showed a much more favourable position for Labour than we were finding in our internal data" both before the campaign and during it.'
That matches the story that Labour had really bad internal polling, but decided not to tell any of the ground troops or other campaign staff.
Awesome decision...
Well that ties in with Nick Palmer "overegging" his canvas returns.. and IIRC that Soubry had given up. Why that was posted is a mystery, but not as mysterious as the IIRC failed Labour candidate IOS and his marvellous Labour ground game that was going to win it for Labour.
'Labour's election pollster says public polls "showed a much more favourable position for Labour than we were finding in our internal data" both before the campaign and during it.'
That matches the story that Labour had really bad internal polling, but decided not to tell any of the ground troops or other campaign staff.
Awesome decision...
Well that ties in with Nick Palmer "overegging" his canvas returns.. and IIRC that Soubry had given up. Why that was posted is a mystery, but not as mysterious as the IIRC failed Labour candidate IOS and his marvellous Labour ground game that was going to win it for Labour.
The only thing that doesn't add up...
#1 - Labour crapped themselves when postal votes started to come in and hence when Eddie met Russelly. LabourList said it was total panic.
#2 - They genuinely thought they had won on the night.
Now, either somebody didn't tell Kim Jong Ed how bad things were or somebody isn't quite telling the whole truth.
Think if all the PBers that were going to vote Ukip under a new leader but now will have to stick with their old party! #missedopportunity
For all the stick Farage is getting for being reinstated at the behest of the money men )and I think he should stay out) I have seen little criticism of Ed Balls alleged grubby attempt to get back in.
If he had won Thanet South by 1 vote and UKIP had got 8% you would have been happy for him to stay?
Basically unless Carswell wanted the job, it was going to be a non MP, so Farage's reason for stepping down (not being in Westminster) was bogus.. as it stands he is the best man for the job, and he is in he job
Rejoice!
The issue is one of credibility. He set a condition he'd resign by if he failed - and he failed. If he'd won South Thanet by 1 vote then that would have been a success not a failure.
The mistake was saying he'd resign if he didn't win in the first place. But once said, he should honour his pledges.
So even though it is worse for UKIP, he should resign to keep other parties supporters happy? OK
Anyway, he did resign, but they didn't accept it
Everyone's happy!
Though he made clear in his "resignation speech" that he didn't want to go.
Either way I'm amused that 12%, no new seats and only one of the defectors is considered a win now. Before the election we were being told that the vote share would at least be high teens and there would be a number of seats. Looks like both expectations were undershot. Rather than rewriting history to make that look like a success a reflection on what went wrong seems more credible if the party was intending to be serious.
"Before the election we were being told that the vote share would at least be high teens "
Who is rewriting history?
Are you claiming that no Kippers here weren't claiming there'd be a share in that high?
I distinctly recall a few people suggesting at least 16-18% as a vote share. No link though, but just off memory.
EDIT: I definitely DO NOT recall any Kipper (or others) suggesting a share in the single digits, so any comparisons of what was achieved against that don't work.
I won about £500 off people on here suggesting UKIP would poll single digits, and they took odds on!
One even thought under 9% at Even money was value....
I am looking forward to the Conservatives sufficiently moving the centre of gravity of political debate in this country such that next time it is fought on different, and far more sensible, ground.
That's the difference between the Left and the Right in the UK. The ablest leaders on the right have been able to win public debate and implement policy in office that has moved the centre ground of political debate further to the right. The ablest leaders on the left have been able to convince their party that they should give up on moving the centre ground in favour of simply occupying office.
Think if all the PBers that were going to vote Ukip under a new leader but now will have to stick with their old party! #missedopportunity
For all the stick Farage is getting for being reinstated at the behest of the money men )and I think he should stay out) I have seen little criticism of Ed Balls alleged grubby attempt to get back in.
If he had won Thanet South by 1 vote and UKIP had got 8% you would have been happy for him to stay?
Basically unless Carswell wanted the job, it was going to be a non MP, so Farage's reason for stepping down (not being in Westminster) was bogus.. as it stands he is the best man for the job, and he is in he job
Rejoice!
The issue is one of credibility. He set a condition he'd resign by if he failed - and he failed. If he'd won South Thanet by 1 vote then that would have been a success not a failure.
The mistake was saying he'd resign if he didn't win in the first place. But once said, he should honour his pledges.
So even though it is worse for UKIP, he should resign to keep other parties supporters happy? OK
Anyway, he did resign, but they didn't accept it
Everyone's happy!
Though he made clear in his "resignation speech" that he didn't want to go.
Either way I'm amused that 12%, no new seats and only one of the defectors is considered a win now. Before the election we were being told that the vote share would at least be high teens and there would be a number of seats. Looks like both expectations were undershot. Rather than rewriting history to make that look like a success a reflection on what went wrong seems more credible if the party was intending to be serious.
"Before the election we were being told that the vote share would at least be high teens "
Who is rewriting history?
Are you claiming that no Kippers here weren't claiming there'd be a share in that high?
I distinctly recall a few people suggesting at least 16-18% as a vote share. No link though, but just off memory.
EDIT: I definitely DO NOT recall any Kipper (or others) suggesting a share in the single digits, so any comparisons of what was achieved against that don't work.
I for one most definitely did not proclaim high teens for Ukip, I said 10-12%.
There aren't that many of us, could only have been MikeL
Dair In Kirckaldy in 2011 for instance the SNP won 45% Labour 44% the Tories 7%. In Aberdeen Central the SNP won 40%, Labour 37%, the Tories 12%. Both seats Tory tactical voting could win
To win the next election on the current boundaries Labour needs a swing in England & Wales just 0.9% less than the one Blair achieved in 1997. 9.4% vs 10.3%. (Assumes Labour won't win back any Scottish seats from the SNP).
Who's the Blair in the Labour leadership election?
Liz Kendall. The ambition and vision of Blair, before Tony went over to the dark side to become (in)Vader.
Btw. Well done for your spot. I think you were the first on this board to bring our attention to her.
We shall see if it is a good tip when the race is over!
It is possible that her ambition is just a little bit too naked, but give me Liz Kendall's directness rather than Chuka's pretended coyness.
It's a great tip already, I'm laying Liz on Betfair right now
Backing that crucial contender in any leadership election "The field"
Particularly in longer contests a fresh face does better than the favourites. That is how Ed won, it is how Dave won, it is how Tony came to power, Major and Maggie too...
Experience is a two edged sword. As well as the weightiness it brings are a public history of unfortunate previous events. Chuka's Wikipedia and comments about trashy people, Andy's Stafford and PFI, Cooper's Balls etc.
I have backed Stella Creasy too, but not so heavily.
'Well that ties in with Nick Palmer "overegging" his canvas returns.. and IIRC that Soubry had given up. Why that was posted is a mystery, but not as mysterious as the IIRC failed Labour candidate IOS and his marvellous Labour ground game that was going to win it for Labour.'
He never met any Tory voters, Soubry and & the Lib Dems had given up,Soubry couldn't even be arsed to debate with him at the university nothing was going to change anything over the past two years, budgets etc.would make no difference,Lib Dems defecting en masse to the Labour party and the campaign wouldn't change any voters minds.
Just a question of how big his majority was going to be.
Oblitus The only leaders who have significantly shifted the centre ground in Britain since the war are Attlee and Thatcher. Cameron, after all, was initially proclaimed as the 'heir to Blair' and in many ways has governed on those lines
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32606713
*With the exception of Jim Callaghan, who would have fitted the bill entirely but came to power in a time and situation almost anyone would have struggled to win from.
Labour are finished in Scotland.
You've got to be joking !
Me!!!
Martin Green sacked!!!!!
Awesome decision...
Gutted as I had over 10.5 goals!
It is possible that her ambition is just a little bit too naked, but give me Liz Kendall's directness rather than Chuka's pretended coyness.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11598391/George-Zimmerman-shot-in-the-face-in-Florida.html
Please, please, please, please, please.
Not even a need for a by-election, he can continue to stand for the platform he was elected under as he wouldn't be taking another Whip.
You think the starting point to consider tactical voting in the 2016 Holyrood election is the state of the parties at Holyrood 2011?
It is hard to imagine you are making that claim with a straight face. You are trying to persuade me that it is legitimate to assume there have been no changes to Holyrood voting intention between 2011 and now?
Will Carswell resign and stand again, er because Farage did not resign and stand again?
Backing that crucial contender in any leadership election "The field"
I distinctly recall a few people suggesting at least 16-18% as a vote share. No link though, but just off memory.
EDIT: I definitely DO NOT recall any Kipper (or others) suggesting a share in the single digits, so any comparisons of what was achieved against that don't work.
No tweet from Loud Howard, must be a bad one for the Tories.
Wish I'd knocked you for that fiver now!
Hence the cul de sac of a sort of Top Trumps identity politics, an internationalism which seems to value foreigners over those in these islands and a slavish corporatist sucking up to the rich and powerful which seems to me to exemplify the worst of New Labour.
For all Mandelson's bile, New Labour was only successful because it had enough money from the City to spend like mad without having to tax the middle classes. Once the money ran out, what - really - did New Labour amount to?
Neither Brown nor Mandelson had the answer. Nor did EdM. Does anyone else in Labour? Do they even know what questions they should be asking?
Clacton voters might get a bit fed up with it all, they aren't all saddoes who live by "the polls" :P
But on a day of talented people making comebacks
K.Pietersen 326no...
#1 - Labour crapped themselves when postal votes started to come in and hence when Eddie met Russelly. LabourList said it was total panic.
#2 - They genuinely thought they had won on the night.
Now, either somebody didn't tell Kim Jong Ed how bad things were or somebody isn't quite telling the whole truth.
One even thought under 9% at Even money was value....
Kevin Pietersen told he won't be selected for England again, @Aggerscricket understands http://bbc.in/1IxurUN
@kiranstacey: Labour pollster: cross-over actually came last October. http://t.co/8Hl5NDqvYZ
There aren't that many of us, could only have been MikeL
Will it be 3 months? 6 months.?
Tuesday's Guardian front page:
PM hops on the fast-track to EU referendum in 2016
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
Experience is a two edged sword. As well as the weightiness it brings are a public history of unfortunate previous events. Chuka's Wikipedia and comments about trashy people, Andy's Stafford and PFI, Cooper's Balls etc.
I have backed Stella Creasy too, but not so heavily.
'Well that ties in with Nick Palmer "overegging" his canvas returns.. and IIRC that Soubry had given up. Why that was posted is a mystery, but not as mysterious as the IIRC failed Labour candidate IOS and his marvellous Labour ground game that was going to win it for Labour.'
He never met any Tory voters, Soubry and & the Lib Dems had given up,Soubry couldn't even be arsed to debate with him at the university nothing was going to change anything over the past two years, budgets etc.would make no difference,Lib Dems defecting en masse to the Labour party and the campaign wouldn't change any voters minds.
Just a question of how big his majority was going to be.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=11598385&cc=11574941
Almost unnoticed the same day a 15 year old lad attending a match for the first time died during the riot at Birmingham v Leeds.
One thing we have got right in the last 30 years is safety at football.
Tim
Tebow