SeanT, Pulpstar Yes Newsnight good on polling, Survation apparently had a poll on Wed night 37-31 Tory they did not publish. Kellner also had some interesting thoughts
I mentioned that Survation poll a few days ago...the serious question has to be asked why...why didn't they publish? Also, why did the telephone pollsters adjust their models in the final week?
We still would have said Survation was an outlier and the telephone pollsters were still out, but still questions need to be asked.
But the bottom line is both Messina / Crosby and Labour's lots had a much better idea of the reality of the situation, and the rest of these pollsters are left looking rather stupid.
Someone on Wikipedia (not me!) has put the Survation poll in the table of 2015 polls - so when was it published?
Harriet Harman cheered after telling Labour MPs not to listen to Mandelson apparently
The tories will be delighted hearing that..
Yes. Early signs are that the Labour leadership contest is going to be fascinatingly and risibly misguided. The only guy who talked sense - Jarvis - has withdrawn.
I have touchingly high hopes Labour will choose the wrong answer to the wrong question posed at the wrong time.
I have every faith that Labour are going to do what the Tories did after 1997 and what Labour did after 79.. id est waste at least 10 yrs in denial.
Its very hard when you have campaigned for policies ABCD to accept that they were all wrong and that policies EFGH are the right course.. easier said than done and it needs a clear out of most of the old guard.. There are too many old guard people in the Labour party with links to the unions to affect sudden and real change IMHO.. I'll believe it when I see it..
PT Unless EU ref is a massive In vote or an Out UKIP will likely get a boost from it
There's no evidence for that.
There's a silly argument being made that its happened in Scotland but that's just not true. The Scottish SNP vote surged 4 years ago and has barely changed since.
2011 Holyrood SNP share 45.4% 2014 Indy Referendum Yes share 44.7% 2015 General Election SNP share 50%
Remarkably stable throughout. The surge happened four years ago, not last year. The last few months has been playing catch up and only swung another 4% (which isn't that surprising in a FPTP environment).
@SeanT - Rather bravely, I have nominated The Ice Twins as the next book to be read by the book club here of which I'm a member here in deepest true-blue Sussex.
Standards are exacting, and not many authors survive unscathed.
I shall report back in due course, but I'm taking a big reputational risk..
With regard to canvass returns in Broxtowe, I believe Nick has said there was some kind of detectable change in the last couple of days or so, when people who had said they would vote labour, when asked again, became more hesitant. No doubt he will correct me if this is wrong.
The labour party's private pollster was on TV earlier saying their methods are different to news pollsters and, in his opinion, more likely to winkle out a true reflection.
Nick Sutton @suttonnick · Tuesday's Guardian front page: PM hops on the fast-track to EU referendum in 2016 #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
30 years tykejohnno, a horrible day for all football fans, much sympathy and respect to all Bradford fans,
Almost unnoticed the same day a 15 year old lad attending a match for the first time died during the riot at Birmingham v Leeds.
One thing we have got right in the last 30 years is safety at football.
Thanks for that Nigel and your right on the poor lad who died during the Birminghan/leeds game, condolence to his family on this sad day.
I attended the 30th anniversary today in centenary square in Bradford,very moving,especially when all the names were read out with a bell sound after every name.
I was at that Birmingham game, standing on the old Spion Kop that ran all the way down one side of St Andrews. The Leeds fans went beserk. I have never seen anything like it. They were charged time after time by mounted police, but kept on throwing whatever they could st whoever they could. They ended up fighting each other. And we all just watched, feeling completely safe but maybe only 70 or 80 yards away. We then walked home through Digbeth to Balsall Heath with no hint of danger. Only heard about the death when we got home, but of course it was the terrible fire that dominated all the TV and radio stations, and the papers the next day. It felt like the end of football. And Heysel and Hillsbrough were still to come.
I'm a Chelsea fan, first game was Easter 1963, I played every week and went to games when I could, after a permanent injury in 1978 I went to every game home and away until about 1986. I was at St Andrews at a night game when we lost 5-1, it was chaos that night. Some of the sights I saw were appalling during that time, there seemed to be a riot at Chelsea games every other week, London derbies were particularly bad.
It is so much better now I feel safe taking my grandsons to matches, the authorities have done very well in making it safe, particularly when you see what is going on around Europe.
Three of your Chelsea legends of the 1970 cup final (Ron harris/peter bonetti,can't remember the other ;-) ) were given great reception at half time Chelsea v Bradford FA cup match this season,biggest cheers came from the Bradford fans for the three greats.
Amongst the relatively narrow range of the populous that are on this forum this situation with Farage may look stupid but its not about this forum, its about UKIPs voter base.
In all honesty I don't see it as having any mammoth impact any more than any other calamity that befalls the party. UKIP voters seem to like Nigel and they give him a fair amount of slack.
If UKIP were going to flat on their gubs at the ballot box it was likely to at a GE when theres no time for a protest vote. Their percentage of the vote was pretty solid, they have potential coming out of their ears if they can harness it.
On another note, Labour leader market. Is Burnham a bad 2nd favourite? At this point, I think so. If you could eliminate him confidently the market becomes much more interesting. Then again, Labour gave the crown to Brown and then voted in Ed, two net vote losers if ever there were any so god knows.
As for Umunna mysteriously sprouting a girlfriend, just what is he trying to prove?
Harriet Harman cheered after telling Labour MPs not to listen to Mandelson apparently
The tories will be delighted hearing that..
LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA....
They had a Labour MP on R5 this afternoon and he said yes we must listen, and the presenter oh a straight answer to a question...then starting banging on about ZHC and foodbanks and the evil Tories when asked about Labour leadership / direction of Labour party.
1992 on steroids then....or at least that was how I described it when amongst friends on Thursday night. I pretty much got Scotland spot on apart from the 3 border seats, and could have easily been 1 had DCT and BRS flipped around. It was quite clear that any theory that Russell Brown had a personal vote in D&G was shot down in flames with his 3rd place finish....rather he was the beneficiary of plenty of SNP tactical voting in both 2005 and 2010.
I wish I could say the same for my predictions in England and Wales, although the overall patter - striking Labour outperformance in London and underperformance in the white working class areas / outperformance in urban areas v suburban / rural came as no surprise. As much as I hate to admit it as one of the very few centre-right voters in England that is very pro-SNP, the Tory scare stories about them more than did their work sadly. Whilst the SNP vote in Scotland was one of hope, the England and Wales Tory vote was one of fear.....therein lies a huge difference.
It seems that we get one of these type of unexpected election results every 20-25 years - witness 1945 (Labour understated) and the 3 Tory understatements of 1970, 1992 and now 2015. And look at how poorly Labour fared in 1950, the Tories in February 1974 and 1997 did.
And its 1992 on steroids in another way.......no doubt we'll have a Tory honeymoon until the summer recess. But the great economic turning point at the end of September this year that runs through to the end of January 2020 will be an absolute death knell to the Tories longer term.....pride comes before the fall as they say. That will lay waste to any reputation that Cameron and Osborne have currently for sound economic stewardship.....even though there are gaping holes in that story - terrible balance of payments / current account position and a deficit running at 5-6% of GDP when it was said in 2010 that the budget would be back in balance by now.
I am looking forward to the Conservatives sufficiently moving the centre of gravity of political debate in this country such that next time it is fought on different, and far more sensible, ground.
That's the difference between the Left and the Right in the UK. The ablest leaders on the right have been able to win public debate and implement policy in office that has moved the centre ground of political debate further to the right. The ablest leaders on the left have been able to convince their party that they should give up on moving the centre ground in favour of simply occupying office.
Such a load of bull. Take the minimum wage. Now fully part of the centre ground furniture, originally opposed in apocalyptic terms by the right.
Look at the poor buggers losing their jobs at the post firm today. Because they're on zero hours contracts they have lost their jobs instantly, making a mockery of the law on notice periods for redundancy. Similarly for the delivery firm at Christmas where the workers were self-employed so will get nothing as they are at the back of the queue for insolvency payouts, behind the parent company for the firm who lent it money.
The centre ground in employment relations has shifted further to the right despite the minimum wage.
Kind of confused as to what the difference is between that and the tens of thousands of consultants who can all lose their jobs at a moments notice. It has ever been thus.
My understanding was that consultants are able to charge a higher rate which allows them to cope with a less reliable supply of work.
Mr Tyndall... I'm not a Eupophile. Grow a bit of realism from somewhere .#
We created the ECHR. We are a signatory to it. We are bound by it irrespective of any HRA or EU treaty. UK citizens have always been able to appeal to it. It is a different organisation to the EU. You have the warped view. All UK govts have been willing members of the ECHR since its founding. This govt want to repeal the HRA and create a Bill of Rights which actually incorporates all the ECHR texts. It will then allow parliament to be final arbiter of UK law. Good. It is far from clear that this is in any way incompatible with EU rules. The govt believes not. It would be hard to argue that any UK withdrawal from the convention if it happened would be a breach of these values in itself – particularly given the commitment to enshrine the convention's texts in domestic law. My understanding is the UK has a veto over EU accession to the convention and logic says it would use it. Last December the Court of Justice of the EU ruled that the draft agreement on the accession of the EU to the ECHR was not compatible with EU law! Has it changed?
Harriet Harman cheered after telling Labour MPs not to listen to Mandelson apparently
The tories will be delighted hearing that..
Yes. Early signs are that the Labour leadership contest is going to be fascinatingly and risibly misguided. The only guy who talked sense - Jarvis - has withdrawn.
I have touchingly high hopes Labour will choose the wrong answer to the wrong question posed at the wrong time.
I have every faith that Labour are going to do what the Tories did after 1997 and what Labour did after 79.. id est waste at least 10 yrs in denial.
Its very hard when you have campaigned for policies ABCD to accept that they were all wrong and that policies EFGH are the right course.. easier said than done and it needs a clear out of most of the old guard.. There are too many old guard people in the Labour party with links to the unions to affect sudden and real change IMHO.. I'll believe it when I see it..
So the King o' the water was right to rule himself out until 2021 then.
An interesting number would be the majority in each seat a party won, summed, divided by the number of seats that party won. This would give a sense of the number of votes 'wasted' in each seat they won. Where's Andy when you need him
With regard to canvass returns in Broxtowe, I believe Nick has said there was some kind of detectable change in the last couple of days or so, when people who had said they would vote labour, when asked again, became more hesitant. No doubt he will correct me if this is wrong.
The labour party's private pollster was on TV earlier saying their methods are different to news pollsters and, in his opinion, more likely to winkle out a true reflection.
Naaah. He said he overegged his canvas returns.. I think he knew he was done for , but couldn't admit it. Not sure who said Soubry had given up.. I'd like to find out if it was NP as it was utter bollocks.
Harriet Harman cheered after telling Labour MPs not to listen to Mandelson apparently
The tories will be delighted hearing that..
LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA....
They had a Labour MP on R5 this afternoon and he said yes we must listen, and the presenter oh a straight answer to a question...then starting banging on about ZHC and foodbanks and the evil Tories when asked about Labour leadership / direction of Labour party.
Step down from evil baby-eating Tories. Progress...
On more substantial matters, I have good news and bad news.
The good news is that my GE2015 betting account has been approved by Higher Authority, and my Licence to Carry Out Political Betting has been, as I expected, extended without demur.
The bad news is that there is disturbing talk of a Milbandesque raid on my profits, a sort of windfall tax, diverting them from the good use I had pencilled in - the Nabavi Claret Fund - to more mundane purposes. I've tried to argue that this will damage incentives and act as a brake on entrepreneurial zeal, but so far without success.
Amusing images of new SNP MPs trying to buy a travelcard for the tube on newsnight
Although London City Airport is actually on the DLR, but they probably changed at Bank or Tower Gateway for the District line (Monument or Tower Hill).
4 million Kippers now demanding they be allowed to unvote for the clown party
You're deluded if you think this is gonna seriously damage UKIP. Farage is beloved by his supporters and voters. He is quietly popular with some *potential* kippers too, even as he is loathed and feared by Tories and Labourites.
What will damage UKIP, is if the Tories, with a majority, swing hard right, seizing the kipper vote. But this is unlikely.
And the big drivers of UKIP success - mass EU immigration, Labour WWC self hatred - show no signs of abating.
Even the Tories swinging hard right won't seize the Kipper vote since the Kipper vote is a protest vote. It doesn't matter how hard right the Tories go it will never be enough.
What will soften the Kipper vote is the opposite, if the Tories can manage the economy etc well and through sensible running of the country give people something to believe in then they may not feel the need to protest anymore.
Though I expect the return to two party politics to continue next time - we were supposed to have witnessed the death of two party politics already but despite the seven party debates etc the two party share of the vote increased by 2.2% this time (even after SNP surge). In England the two party share increased by 4.9%
I think that misunderstands two key factors.
Firstly that many of those who voted UKIP did not come from the Tory party in the fist place so there is no reason for them to return to them.
Secondly those of us who did come from the Tory party left because of Cameron and have hardened our view of him since leaving. He cannot insult huge numbers of people and then just expect them to flock back. The Tory party may well get back some of those who left but it won't happen as long as Cameron or his ilk are in charge.
How's that a misunderstanding. It agrees with what I was saying which is that I wouldn't expect a return from Kippers. The Tories could swing to the hard right and I doubt they'd pick up any significant vote as a result as people who'd rather protest than make a choice last week won't take any change as being far enough.
I expect a general hardening of the two party vote (as there was this time) but that will come from all minor parties, not just UKIP.
Can we confirm that Nick Palmer will not be standing again?
"I don’t expect to be standing for Parliament again – unless something unexpected arises, I think it makes sense to focus on my job as Director of Policy of Cruelty Free International, the organisation that works to phase out experiments on animals around the world."
Can we confirm that Nick Palmer will not be standing again?
"I don’t expect to be standing for Parliament again – unless something unexpected arises, I think it makes sense to focus on my job as Director of Policy of Cruelty Free International, the organisation that works to phase out experiments on animals around the world."
On more substantial matters, I have good news and bad news.
The good news is that my GE2015 betting account has been approved by Higher Authority, and my Licence to Carry Out Political Betting has been, as I expected, extended without demur.
The bad news is that there is disturbing talk of a Milbandesque raid on my profits, a sort of windfall tax, diverting them from the good use I had pencilled in - the Nabavi Claret Fund - to more mundane purposes. I've tried to argue that this will damage incentives and acts as a brake on entrepreneurial zeal, but so far without success.
'Labour's election pollster says public polls "showed a much more favourable position for Labour than we were finding in our internal data" both before the campaign and during it.'
That matches the story that Labour had really bad internal polling, but decided not to tell any of the ground troops or other campaign staff.
Awesome decision...
There is a simply rule with anything IT-related. Garbage in, garbage out.
I shared my experience of being canvassed earlier on this site. I live in one of the most marginal constituencies in the country (Warrington South) and in one of the most Labour wards of that constituency. Last year for better words a gang of about a dozen men in red rosettes flocked to the estate and started knocking on all the doors. They were very forceful and clearly expected to be told we were Labour voters. I took great pleasure in telling them I'm Tory, just as I do in telling Jehovah's that I'm an atheist ... but that was visibly a shock to the system. I don't think I was the first Tory to be canvassed, but I suspect I was more unique in that group to admit to being so.
I think Labour fully expected to win here - they were predicted to. Instead the swing was TO the Tories and away from Labour.
If you go to people's doors forcefully expecting and almost forcing people to say they're Labour to you then they either won't say or will tell you want you want to be told. If you want to know the truth, you need to listen more and be more polite and softer.
I try to be as soft and as indirect as possible. The use of the candidate name first, then the party. My pitch would be along the lines of, "can we rely on your support at the election?". At this point your supporters are usually fairly clear. You have the more shy people who support you but dont really like giving out information to a stranger.
You have the perpetually undecided. A long time ago i worked out how to tease information out of undecided.
"Can we rely on your support?" "undecided at the moment" "Do you normally vote" "oh yes" "have you ever considered voting for us in the past?" "no" "sorry to bother you, have a nice evening"
Canvassing isnt about converting people (though it happens, and quite frequently), its about accurate date collection. If you collect the wrong information you are going to do nothing but agitate your opposition on election day when you annoy them to see if theyve gone out and vote.
With regard to canvass returns in Broxtowe, I believe Nick has said there was some kind of detectable change in the last couple of days or so, when people who had said they would vote labour, when asked again, became more hesitant. No doubt he will correct me if this is wrong.
The labour party's private pollster was on TV earlier saying their methods are different to news pollsters and, in his opinion, more likely to winkle out a true reflection.
Naaah. He said he overegged his canvas returns.. I think he knew he was done for , but couldn't admit it. Not sure who said Soubry had given up.. I'd like to find out if it was NP as it was utter bollocks.
NPXXMP said Soubry had given up a couple of times. Lost respect for him for that, its one thing to overegg what you're doing but outright lying about an opponent on a site where people are looking for info on making bets is very disingenuous.
I hope not too many regulars lost money on backing Nick based on what he wrote.
On more substantial matters, I have good news and bad news.
The good news is that my GE2015 betting account has been approved by Higher Authority, and my Licence to Carry Out Political Betting has been, as I expected, extended without demur.
The bad news is that there is disturbing talk of a Milbandesque raid on my profits, a sort of windfall tax, diverting them from the good use I had pencilled in - the Nabavi Claret Fund - to more mundane purposes. I've tried to argue that this will damage incentives and acts as a brake on entrepreneurial zeal, but so far without success.
On more substantial matters, I have good news and bad news.
The good news is that my GE2015 betting account has been approved by Higher Authority, and my Licence to Carry Out Political Betting has been, as I expected, extended without demur.
The bad news is that there is disturbing talk of a Milbandesque raid on my profits, a sort of windfall tax, diverting them from the good use I had pencilled in - the Nabavi Claret Fund - to more mundane purposes. I've tried to argue that this will damage incentives and acts as a brake on entrepreneurial zeal, but so far without success.
You need to off-shore some of this betting.
Not sure that would work. There's a General Anti-Avoidance Rule which is strictly enforced.
There is a simply rule with anything IT-related. Garbage in, garbage out.
I shared my experience of being canvassed earlier on this site. I live in one of the most marginal constituencies in the country (Warrington South) and in one of the most Labour wards of that constituency. Last year for better words a gang of about a dozen men in red rosettes flocked to the estate and started knocking on all the doors. They were very forceful and clearly expected to be told we were Labour voters. I took great pleasure in telling them I'm Tory, just as I do in telling Jehovah's that I'm an atheist ... but that was visibly a shock to the system. I don't think I was the first Tory to be canvassed, but I suspect I was more unique in that group to admit to being so.
I think Labour fully expected to win here - they were predicted to. Instead the swing was TO the Tories and away from Labour.
If you go to people's doors forcefully expecting and almost forcing people to say they're Labour to you then they either won't say or will tell you want you want to be told. If you want to know the truth, you need to listen more and be more polite and softer.
I try to be as soft and as indirect as possible. The use of the candidate name first, then the party. My pitch would be along the lines of, "can we rely on your support at the election?". At this point your supporters are usually fairly clear. You have the more shy people who support you but dont really like giving out information to a stranger.
You have the perpetually undecided. A long time ago i worked out how to tease information out of undecided.
"Can we rely on your support?" "undecided at the moment" "Do you normally vote" "oh yes" "have you ever considered voting for us in the past?" "no" "sorry to bother you, have a nice evening"
Canvassing isnt about converting people (though it happens, and quite frequently), its about accurate date collection. If you collect the wrong information you are going to do nothing but agitate your opposition on election day when you annoy them to see if theyve gone out and vote.
Exactly. The way the canvassers spoke to me wasn't like that. Yes they asked some similar questions but their whole behaviour clearly expected the "right" answers. I suspect in that environment many would say what they wanted to hear to close the door.
Can we confirm that Nick Palmer will not be standing again?
"I don’t expect to be standing for Parliament again – unless something unexpected arises, I think it makes sense to focus on my job as Director of Policy of Cruelty Free International, the organisation that works to phase out experiments on animals around the world."
One feature of the result for me was just how many of the Tory constituencies have similar majorities to 1987 in the Tory heartlands. Back in 1987 the Tories had an extra 45 seats producing a majority of just over 100 - then the Tories still had 10 seats in Scotland (an extra 9) but look where the extra 36 seats were in England on an equivalent 650 member parliament - extra seats like Lewisham East / Lewisham West / Eltham / Edmonton / Enfield North / Ilford North that are beyond reach now, as well as seats like Bristol W, Wolverhampton SW, Leeds NE, Leeds NW, Bradford W, Birmingham Edgbaston / Northfield / Hall Green / Selly Oak that they simply can't reach now. A striking illumination on the changes that have occurred in Britain over the past 28 years.
One thing I was happy about with the result was the failure of the Labour retreads (with a huge exception for Nick P in Broxtowe of course). Only Rob Marris in Wolverhampton SW and Joan Ryan in Enfield North were succesful. All the Tory retreads in 2001 fared disastrously from memory. Once you've lost on your own patch, its better to move on, however painful that may be for the individuals involved, even though that did nothing to help the likes of David Rendel in Somerton & Frome.
The guy next to Stella is talking some real sense, Labour should really listen to him .
Some of the time but then he veered into saying that Labour should redefine what "aspiration" meant so that it did not just mean material things. So he's yet again telling people what they should want and how they should live rather than bloody well listening to what THEY want.
Honestly Labour just needs to shut up and listen. To us. Stop bossing us around. Stop talking to yourselves. Even Stella was on about listening to her activists. The poor bloody voter was scarcely given a look in.
The guy next to Stella is talking some real sense, Labour should really listen to him .
Some of the time but then he veered into saying that Labour should redefine what "aspiration" meant so that it did not just mean material things. So he's yet again telling people what they should want and how they should live rather than bloody well listening to what THEY want.
Honestly Labour just needs to shut up and listen. To us. Stop bossing us around. Stop talking to yourselves. Even Stella was on about listening to her activists. The poor bloody voter was scarcely given a look in.
I don't know, it suits me rather well if Labour continue going as they are .
The guy next to Stella is talking some real sense, Labour should really listen to him .
Some of the time but then he veered into saying that Labour should redefine what "aspiration" meant so that it did not just mean material things. So he's yet again telling people what they should want and how they should live rather than bloody well listening to what THEY want.
Honestly Labour just needs to shut up and listen. To us. Stop bossing us around. Stop talking to yourselves. Even Stella was on about listening to her activists. The poor bloody voter was scarcely given a look in.
Oblitus The only leaders who have significantly shifted the centre ground in Britain since the war are Attlee and Thatcher. Cameron, after all, was initially proclaimed as the 'heir to Blair' and in many ways has governed on those lines
Its hard to believe that people could be so wrong headed. Atlee came to power right after the war in the first election in a decade. The 'centre ground' was created by the war and Beveridge. Blair promised reforms of Welfare, Pensions, Health and Education. He failed totally. Welfare for instance rocketed. It was in that context that Cameron pointed out the irony of he himself being the 'heir to Blair'. In actually tackling these issues he succeeded.
PhilipThompson Even so add 5% to 13% and you get 18% for UKIP in 2020, more than the LDs got in 1992 and 1997 and getting to FN territory in 2002 and 2012
With regard to canvass returns in Broxtowe, I believe Nick has said there was some kind of detectable change in the last couple of days or so, when people who had said they would vote labour, when asked again, became more hesitant. No doubt he will correct me if this is wrong.
The labour party's private pollster was on TV earlier saying their methods are different to news pollsters and, in his opinion, more likely to winkle out a true reflection.
Naaah. He said he overegged his canvas returns.. I think he knew he was done for , but couldn't admit it. Not sure who said Soubry had given up.. I'd like to find out if it was NP as it was utter bollocks.
NPXXMP said Soubry had given up a couple of times. Lost respect for him for that, its one thing to overegg what you're doing but outright lying about an opponent on a site where people are looking for info on making bets is very disingenuous.
I hope not too many regulars lost money on backing Nick based on what he wrote.
Well as I have and will continue to point out NPXMP said several times on the site that he never posted anything he knew not to be true on PB.. Perhaps that was limited to when he was an MP ..
I never believed that crap about Soubry having given up. She would have and did fight like hell It must have irked NPXMP that Soubry wouldn't debate with him.. Why should she? I could have made efforts to find out the true position on the ground but in the end I was happy with the £40 that NP is donating to LUPUS UK..
Another feature of this election for me was how the meltdown in the Lib Dem vote went all ways, obviously UKIP picked up a good chunk of it, with the Tories, Greens and Labour picking up roughly a third each of the residual share left from the Lib Dem to UKIP switch. This demonstated why the Cleggasm in 2010 failed to endure after the 1st debate....as soon as the Lib Dems got into the lead in a few opinion polls in 2010 (seems longer than 5 years ago doesn't it!) the extra scrutiny that came with examination of their policies, and many voters concluded that their policies didn't fit with their own personal views, be it they had gripes with Labour and the Tories which made them switch to the Lib Dems in the first place. Hence the Cleggasm was never going to endure given the irreconcilable differences between voters considering the Lib Dems at the peak of the surge.
The guy next to Stella is talking some real sense, Labour should really listen to him .
Some of the time but then he veered into saying that Labour should redefine what "aspiration" meant so that it did not just mean material things. So he's yet again telling people what they should want and how they should live rather than bloody well listening to what THEY want.
Honestly Labour just needs to shut up and listen. To us. Stop bossing us around. Stop talking to yourselves. Even Stella was on about listening to her activists. The poor bloody voter was scarcely given a look in.
I never believed that crap about Soubry having given up. She would have and did fight like hell It must have irked NPXMP that Soubry wouldn't debate with him..
I don't know if it irked him, exactly, but my immediate reaction was: what a waste of time those hustings are. The only people who turn up are existing supporters of candidates. Her time would have been far better spent on actual campaigning.
The Tory MP for Montgomeryshire, Glyn Davies, received one more vote than was probably intended:
"Mr Davies wrote on his Facebook page: “One voter decided to draw a detailed representation of a penis instead of a cross in my box on one ballot paper.
“Amazingly, because it was neatly drawn within the confines of the box the returning officer deemed it a valid vote. I’m not sure the artist meant it to count, but I am grateful. If I knew who it was, I would like to thank him ( or her) personally.”
Mr Tyndall... I'm not a Eupophile. Grow a bit of realism from somewhere .#
We created the ECHR. We are a signatory to it. We are bound by it irrespective of any HRA or EU treaty. UK citizens have always been able to appeal to it. It is a different organisation to the EU. You have the warped view. All UK govts have been willing members of the ECHR since its founding. This govt want to repeal the HRA and create a Bill of Rights which actually incorporates all the ECHR texts. It will then allow parliament to be final arbiter of UK law. Good. It is far from clear that this is in any way incompatible with EU rules. The govt believes not. It would be hard to argue that any UK withdrawal from the convention if it happened would be a breach of these values in itself – particularly given the commitment to enshrine the convention's texts in domestic law. My understanding is the UK has a veto over EU accession to the convention and logic says it would use it. Last December the Court of Justice of the EU ruled that the draft agreement on the accession of the EU to the ECHR was not compatible with EU law! Has it changed?
1. By ECHR I was referring to the European Court of Human Rights not the Convention and yes the proposal is to withdraw from that - or rather to ignore their rulings henceforth.
2. Whatever the ECJ may say the EU is required by law to accede to the European Convention on Human Rights because it is written into article 6 of the Treaty for the European Union. If they do not accede they are in breach of their own treaty obligations.
3. The UK has no veto over EU accession because it is part of the treaty we signed up to.
So again, no matter what we might do in withdrawing from the court, when the EU accedes, as they will eventually because it is a treaty requirement, we will be back where we are as I am damn sure no lawyer is going to ignore the fact their client will be entitled as an EU citizen to appeal to the court.
The Tory MP for Montgomeryshire, Glyn Davies, received one more vote than voters probably intended:
"Mr Davies wrote on his Facebook page: “One voter decided to draw a detailed representation of a penis instead of a cross in my box on one ballot paper.
“Amazingly, because it was neatly drawn within the confines of the box the returning officer deemed it a valid vote. I’m not sure the artist meant it to count, but I am grateful. If I knew who it was, I would like to thank him ( or her) personally.”
Amongst the relatively narrow range of the populous that are on this forum this situation with Farage may look stupid but its not about this forum, its about UKIPs voter base.
In all honesty I don't see it as having any mammoth impact any more than any other calamity that befalls the party. UKIP voters seem to like Nigel and they give him a fair amount of slack.
If UKIP were going to flat on their gubs at the ballot box it was likely to at a GE when theres no time for a protest vote. Their percentage of the vote was pretty solid, they have potential coming out of their ears if they can harness it.
On another note, Labour leader market. Is Burnham a bad 2nd favourite? At this point, I think so. If you could eliminate him confidently the market becomes much more interesting. Then again, Labour gave the crown to Brown and then voted in Ed, two net vote losers if ever there were any so god knows.
As for Umunna mysteriously sprouting a girlfriend, just what is he trying to prove?
@MikeSmithson - you were polled by Labour's internal pollster!
The main difference between our polls and the newspaper polls is that we don’t ask the voting intention first. As Politicalbetting.com’s Mike Smithson found out when he accidentally participated in our only telephone poll of the last 4 years, we first ask respondents to think about the country, the economy, their top issues, the parties and the leaders. We think it gets them closer to their ballot box mindset.
The other encouraGing thing is that labour clearly thinks this is the bottom. Things can't get any worse. Wrong. See 1983. England utterly rejected labour. And now labour does not have Scotland to fall back on. Or Wales.
Mr Tyndall... I'm not a Eupophile. Grow a bit of realism from somewhere .#
We created the ECHR. We are a signatory to it. We are bound by it irrespective of any HRA or EU treaty. UK citizens have always been able to appeal to it. It is a different organisation to the EU. You have the warped view. All UK govts have been willing members of the ECHR since its founding. This govt want to repeal the HRA and create a Bill of Rights which actually incorporates all the ECHR texts. It will then allow parliament to be final arbiter of UK law. Good. It is far from clear that this is in any way incompatible with EU rules. The govt believes not. It would be hard to argue that any UK withdrawal from the convention if it happened would be a breach of these values in itself – particularly given the commitment to enshrine the convention's texts in domestic law. My understanding is the UK has a veto over EU accession to the convention and logic says it would use it. Last December the Court of Justice of the EU ruled that the draft agreement on the accession of the EU to the ECHR was not compatible with EU law! Has it changed?
1. By ECHR I was referring to the European Court of Human Rights not the Convention and yes the proposal is to withdraw from that - or rather to ignore their rulings henceforth.
2. Whatever the ECJ may say the EU is required by law to accede to the European Convention on Human Rights because it is written into article 6 of the Treaty for the European Union. If they do not accede they are in breach of their own treaty obligations.
3. The UK has no veto over EU accession because it is part of the treaty we signed up to.
So again, no matter what we might do in withdrawing from the court, when the EU accedes, as they will eventually because it is a treaty requirement, we will be back where we are as I am damn sure no lawyer is going to ignore the fact their client will be entitled as an EU citizen to appeal to the court.
It is my understanding that would only apply to EU rules and regulations not national ones.
I never believed that crap about Soubry having given up. She would have and did fight like hell It must have irked NPXMP that Soubry wouldn't debate with him..
I don't know if it irked him, exactly, but my immediate reaction was: what a waste of time those hustings are. The only people who turn up are existing supporters of candidates. Her time would have been far better spent on actual campaigning.
It's certainly an argument, but misses the fact that local media and bloggers often turn up and report the proceedings.
Harriet Harman cheered after telling Labour MPs not to listen to Mandelson apparently
The tories will be delighted hearing that..
Yes. Early signs are that the Labour leadership contest is going to be fascinatingly and risibly misguided. The only guy who talked sense - Jarvis - has withdrawn.
I have touchingly high hopes Labour will choose the wrong answer to the wrong question posed at the wrong time.
I have every faith that Labour are going to do what the Tories did after 1997 and what Labour did after 79.. id est waste at least 10 yrs in denial.
Its very hard when you have campaigned for policies ABCD to accept that they were all wrong and that policies EFGH are the right course.. easier said than done and it needs a clear out of most of the old guard.. There are too many old guard people in the Labour party with links to the unions to affect sudden and real change IMHO.. I'll believe it when I see it..
So the King o' the water was right to rule himself out until 2021 then.
If DM bottled it against Brown, he's hardly likely to abandon the behind-the-lines chateau till the optimum moment.
I never believed that crap about Soubry having given up. She would have and did fight like hell It must have irked NPXMP that Soubry wouldn't debate with him..
I don't know if it irked him, exactly, but my immediate reaction was: what a waste of time those hustings are. The only people who turn up are existing supporters of candidates. Her time would have been far better spent on actual campaigning.
It's certainly an argument, but misses the fact that local media and bloggers often turn up and report the proceedings.
Maybe, but who takes any notice? Real voters hardly know there's an election on. Undecided voters won't be following local bloggers.
One of the few seats that didn't conform to the pattern in England and Wales that I expected was Penistone & Stocksbridge..... Labour had a 4% swing in its favour here....anyone know why? It was one of Labour's best performances in a WWC heartland.
Anthony Calvert who was defeated by Ed Balls in 2010 must be feeling particularly sick, and made no progress in Wakefield, rather a slight 1% reverse for the Tories there.
Of the 10 Tories who lost their seats to Labour, a lot of them must be feeling pretty sick as well, a lot of them put anything between 2,000 and 4,000 on their vote relative to 2010 yet still lost.
Labour's result in Wales hasn't received the scrutiny that I thought it would in amongst the carnage - the defeat in Gower can be explained by plenty of wealthy English retirees on the Gower peninsula changing the demographics of the seat, now moving in line with their couple of Pembrokeshire seats. I was still shocked that Ruane lost in the Vale of Clywd and the Labour failure in Cardiff North summed up their night in the prinicipality.
Where is the great hostility to Liz Kendall? I've certainly not seen it....
From Chuka, Yvette and Andy, I expect.
No one likes to realise that that they are yesterdays news.
I like the fact that while they are all dodging questions about standing, Liz was forthright about setting out her stall. Nothing wrong with ambition and aspiration.
There is a simply rule with anything IT-related. Garbage in, garbage out.
I shared my experience of being canvassed earlier on this site. I live in one of the most marginal constituencies in the country (Warrington South) and in one of the most Labour wards of that constituency. Last year for better words a gang of about a dozen men in red rosettes flocked to the estate and started knocking on all the doors. They were very forceful and clearly expected to be told we were Labour voters. I took great pleasure in telling them I'm Tory, just as I do in telling Jehovah's that I'm an atheist ... but that was visibly a shock to the system. I don't think I was the first Tory to be canvassed, but I suspect I was more unique in that group to admit to being so.
I think Labour fully expected to win here - they were predicted to. Instead the swing was TO the Tories and away from Labour.
If you go to people's doors forcefully expecting and almost forcing people to say they're Labour to you then they either won't say or will tell you want you want to be told. If you want to know the truth, you need to listen more and be more polite and softer.
I try to be as soft and as indirect as possible. The use of the candidate name first, then the party. My pitch would be along the lines of, "can we rely on your support at the election?". At this point your supporters are usually fairly clear. You have the more shy people who support you but dont really like giving out information to a stranger.
You have the perpetually undecided. A long time ago i worked out how to tease information out of undecided.
"Can we rely on your support?" "undecided at the moment" "Do you normally vote" "oh yes" "have you ever considered voting for us in the past?" "no" "sorry to bother you, have a nice evening"
Canvassing isnt about converting people (though it happens, and quite frequently), its about accurate date collection. If you collect the wrong information you are going to do nothing but agitate your opposition on election day when you annoy them to see if theyve gone out and vote.
Exactly. The way the canvassers spoke to me wasn't like that. Yes they asked some similar questions but their whole behaviour clearly expected the "right" answers. I suspect in that environment many would say what they wanted to hear to close the door.
And, with that attitude, many of the canvassers would hear what they wanted to hear regardless of the answer.
Amongst the relatively narrow range of the populous that are on this forum this situation with Farage may look stupid but its not about this forum, its about UKIPs voter base.
In all honesty I don't see it as having any mammoth impact any more than any other calamity that befalls the party. UKIP voters seem to like Nigel and they give him a fair amount of slack.
If UKIP were going to flat on their gubs at the ballot box it was likely to at a GE when theres no time for a protest vote. Their percentage of the vote was pretty solid, they have potential coming out of their ears if they can harness it.
On another note, Labour leader market. Is Burnham a bad 2nd favourite? At this point, I think so. If you could eliminate him confidently the market becomes much more interesting. Then again, Labour gave the crown to Brown and then voted in Ed, two net vote losers if ever there were any so god knows.
As for Umunna mysteriously sprouting a girlfriend, just what is he trying to prove?
Didn't he used to go out with Luciana Berger?
Yes, he did. Chuka thinks so much of himself, I'm not quite sure what these other women are seeing. I don't know why though some aren't seeing the significance that in 2010, Labour's own parliamentary party, and members didn't vote for Ed Miliband. For all the talk on how Labour's members prefer someone 'like them', rather than someone electable, they actually voted for David Miliband - someone widely seen as a Blairite candidate - over Ed Miliband, someone much more closer to their politics. Even on Brown, I think he ended up getting the job by default through more than a decade of political maneuvering, rather than the avid endorsement of Labour's members.
I also don't think there was any other real leadership rival in the party; the Miliband brothers were relatively early in their parliamentary careers, especially Ed Miliband, as was Ed Balls. There's an argument they shouldn't have gotten rid of Blair, but I'm not too sure after Iraq, and following that the global financial crisis (had he stayed on) that he would have won 2010 anyway. In 2005, looking back on it - I was 11 at the time and felt like a fairly dull election - that Blair won simply because this country wasn't electing Michael Howard to be PM.
SeanT - from a thread of yesterday. I had a vague recollection that my April prediction was very bearish for LDs, but am pretty shocked myself that it was in any way accurate elsewhere.
I was helping out in a Tory/LD marginal, and could see the wind was blowing. Where I live is safe blue, but I'd been having lots of conversations with solid Labour voters who were turned towards Green by EdM. Strangely, I was also seeing direct L-C converts or L-UKIP in working class pals. Not a single person I know was going to vote LD (I'm in my late 20s, last time ALL my uni pals voted LD for one reason, and ALL my school mates voted LD for another).
I wish I could claim some clairvoyance for the result (Midlands was key to the calculation re swing seats - and I'm a West Brom supporter, perhaps that is the only way to explain it). Downright finger in the air luck. I did once have a serious pollster startup discussion with a techie mate, though....
hunchman I voted for Paul Uppal in Wolverhampton SW in 2010 but voted in Tunbridge Wells this year, clearly he needed my vote back
Wolverhampton SW has been moving leftward for a long time now, just like a lot of other compact urban seats that the Tories used to be able to win going back. And its not just confined to Britain, its been a feature of democratic politics right around the western world with the increasing urban / suburban and rural divide. The East Midlands was a classic example - swings to Labour in Leicester and Nottingham where they piled up votes, and swings to the Tories outside the East Midlands cities....with the honourable exception of Derby North, typically adding to the inefficiency of the Labour vote this time.
As for where Labour go from here - they're caught in a couple of massive squeezes:
1) English and Scottish nationalism and 2) the perennial problem of the liberal metropolitan elite vs social conservatism of the WWC.
The next 5 years will be fascinating for them. Whilst the global sovereign debt crisis should more than do to the Tories, its very much up for debate where my predicted catastrophic decline in the Tory vote will go. If UKIP play their cards right, it could go to them. One thing is for sure though...we'll see an increasing polarisation between left and right which has always historically been a hallmark of troubled times.
Where is the great hostility to Liz Kendall? I've certainly not seen it....
From Chuka, Yvette and Andy, I expect.
No one likes to realise that that they are yesterdays news.
I like the fact that while they are all dodging questions about standing, Liz was forthright about setting out her stall. Nothing wrong with ambition and aspiration.
I don't understand all the criticisms of her ambition. It's bloody weird.
If it's from her other leadership rivals, then that's not too worrying. It shows they feel deeply threatened by her. I have no idea why Umunna is actually being considered a potential leader by anyone. He was one of Ed Miliband's most fervent supporters, and is clearly associated with Ed Milibandism. Given Miliband took the party backwards at this GE, you have to wonder why anyone would want more of the same.
There is a simply rule with anything IT-related. Garbage in, garbage out.
I shared my experience of being canvassed earlier on this site. I live in one of the most margiy were predicted to. Instead the swing was TO the Tories and away from Labour.
If you go to people's doors forcefully expecting and almost forcing people to say they're Labour to you then they either won't say or will tell you want you want to be told. If you want to know the truth, you need to listen more and be more polite and softer.
I try to be as soft and as indirect as possible. The use of the candidate name first, then the party. My pitch would be along the lines of, "can we rely on your support at the election?". At this point your supporters are usually fairly clear. You have the more shy people who support you but dont really like giving out information to a stranger.
You have the perpetually undecided. A long time ago i worked out how to tease information out of undecided.
"Can we rely on your support?" "undecided at the moment" "Do you normally vote" "oh yes" "have you ever considered voting for us in the past?" "no" "sorry to bother you, have a nice evening"
Canvassing isnt about converting people (though it happens, and quite frequently), its about accurate date collection. If you collect the wrong information you are going to do nothing but agitate your opposition on election day when you annoy them to see if theyve gone out and vote.
Exactly. The way the canvassers spoke to me wasn't like that. Yes they asked some similar questions but their whole behaviour clearly expected the "right" answers. I suspect in that environment many would say what they wanted to hear to close the door.
And, with that attitude, many of the canvassers would hear what they wanted to hear regardless of the answer.
I do wish canvassers were told that their job is not to convert, or to preach, but merely to divine information. I also use the 'can we count on your support' line, and find it helps to be quick and to the point until the householder begins a conversation - if they do, they're either supporters, waverers towards you (and perhaps asking for a little convincing) or just weirdly political (and probably avid readers of PB).
I learned canvassing in 05. That was a tough year to be a Tory.
SeanT - from a thread of yesterday. I had a vague recollection that my April prediction was very bearish for LDs, but am pretty shocked myself that it was in any way accurate elsewhere.
I was helping out in a Tory/LD marginal, and could see the wind was blowing. Where I live is safe blue, but I'd been having lots of conversations with solid Labour voters who were turned towards Green by EdM. Strangely, I was also seeing direct L-C converts or L-UKIP in working class pals. Not a single person I know was going to vote LD (I'm in my late 20s, last time ALL my uni pals voted LD for one reason, and ALL my school mates voted LD for another).
I wish I could claim some clairvoyance for the result (Midlands was key to the calculation re swing seats - and I'm a West Brom supporter, perhaps that is the only way to explain it). Downright finger in the air luck. I did once have a serious pollster startup discussion with a techie mate, though....
Ta for the info!
Whatever the explanation, your prediction was eerily prescient. Sincere Congratulations. You are an Official PB Soothsayer.
Thanks! Not sure I can handle the pressure of being a soothsayer, though!
SeanT - from a thread of yesterday. I had a vague recollection that my April prediction was very bearish for LDs, but am pretty shocked myself that it was in any way accurate elsewhere.
I was helping out in a Tory/LD marginal, and could see the wind was blowing. Where I live is safe blue, but I'd been having lots of conversations with solid Labour voters who were turned towards Green by EdM. Strangely, I was also seeing direct L-C converts or L-UKIP in working class pals. Not a single person I know was going to vote LD (I'm in my late 20s, last time ALL my uni pals voted LD for one reason, and ALL my school mates voted LD for another).
I wish I could claim some clairvoyance for the result (Midlands was key to the calculation re swing seats - and I'm a West Brom supporter, perhaps that is the only way to explain it). Downright finger in the air luck. I did once have a serious pollster startup discussion with a techie mate, though....
It is said that Lib Demmery was like chlamydia, popular amongst the young, and rife in a sixth form common room.
One feature of the election night coverage I hated as an orienteer was the Hexagonal dots for each of the parties. Its such an artificial construct, and leads to a horribly contorted map of Britain - I wish they coloured in the constituencies in line with their actual position on a map of the Britain. The latter was actually much better, as it clearly showed the 'atomisation' of the electoral map with Labour now just an urban party of England along with its South Wales heartland and a few honourable exceptions eg Ynys Mon, Clwyd South.
Of the 8 Lib Dem victories, 2 of them (Clegg and Mulholland) were only due to Tories voting tactically Lib Dem - the Tory vote in Lib Dem Labour marginals has finally woken up to the realities of FPTP and voted tactically for the first time. The relatively small falls of Jo Swinson and Crockart in Edinburgh W were also clearly aided by Tory tactical voting. This may help any future Lib Dem revival where the Tories don't stand a chance in future. The other 6 Lib Dem victories were all because there was enough of a majority to cushion the swing against them.
Personally I don't think Farron will be the answer to the Lib Dems problems. Whilst undoubtedly he's a great campaigner, I think he lacks the necessary gravitas to launch a root and branch reform of the party. I would have thought that Norman Lamb would be the better long term choice as far as they are concerned.
Where is the great hostility to Liz Kendall? I've certainly not seen it....
From Chuka, Yvette and Andy, I expect.
No one likes to realise that that they are yesterdays news.
I like the fact that while they are all dodging questions about standing, Liz was forthright about setting out her stall. Nothing wrong with ambition and aspiration.
Indeed. Which is why she worries. Yet I suspect she will lose. The Guardianista are screeching in their hatred of her Blairiness.
The membership have to want to win more than they want to demonstrate their ideological purity. It took the disaster of IDS before the Tory membership came to its senses. Labour clearly aren't there yet.
Edit: and the new system is nuts in terms of how little weight it puts on the opinions of MPs.
Mr Tyndall... I'm not a Eupophile. Grow a bit of realism from somewhere .
snip
1. By ECHR I was referring to the European Court of Human Rights not the Convention and yes the proposal is to withdraw from that - or rather to ignore their rulings henceforth.
2. Whatever the ECJ may say the EU is required by law to accede to the European Convention on Human Rights because it is written into article 6 of the Treaty for the European Union. If they do not accede they are in breach of their own treaty obligations.
3. The UK has no veto over EU accession because it is part of the treaty we signed up to.
So again, no matter what we might do in withdrawing from the court, when the EU accedes, as they will eventually because it is a treaty requirement, we will be back where we are as I am damn sure no lawyer is going to ignore the fact their client will be entitled as an EU citizen to appeal to the court.
It is my understanding that would only apply to EU rules and regulations not national ones.
''One of the steps contemplated by the draft Agreement was the obtaining of an opinion from the CJEU on whether the Agreement was compatible with the EU Treaties. And the CJEU’s firm “non” to that question will inevitably set back the process, if not lead to its complete derailment.''
Amongst the relatively narrow range of the populous that are on this forum this situation with Farage may look stupid but its not about this forum, its about UKIPs voter base.
As for Umunna mysteriously sprouting a girlfriend, just what is he trying to prove?
Didn't he used to go out with Luciana Berger?
Yes, he did. Chuka thinks so much of himself, I'm not quite sure what these other women are seeing. I don't know why though some aren't seeing the significance that in 2010, Labour's own parliamentary party, and members didn't vote for Ed Miliband. For all the talk on how Labour's members prefer someone 'like them', rather than someone electable, they actually voted for David Miliband - someone widely seen as a Blairite candidate - over Ed Miliband, someone much more closer to their politics. Even on Brown, I think he ended up getting the job by default through more than a decade of political maneuvering, rather than the avid endorsement of Labour's members.
I also don't think there was any other real leadership rival in the party; the Miliband brothers were relatively early in their parliamentary careers, especially Ed Miliband, as was Ed Balls. There's an argument they shouldn't have gotten rid of Blair, but I'm not too sure after Iraq, and following that the global financial crisis (had he stayed on) that he would have won 2010 anyway. In 2005, looking back on it - I was 11 at the time and felt like a fairly dull election - that Blair won simply because this country wasn't electing Michael Howard to be PM.
I remember that 2005 election well. It brought peak LD, with a hefty anti-war vote. Tony Blair lost 47 seats, but only 33 to Michael Howard. Don't forget that the Tories backed the war too.
It is unusual for a GE to change more than 50-60 seats. The only one that I remember over 100 was 1997, even in 1983 only 60 or so seats swapped. David Cameron gained 97 in 2010 to set the scene for gaining 25 this time. It is funny how some critics consider the first a failure, though they do seem noticeably quieter on the subject now.
One feature of the election night coverage I hated as an orienteer was the Hexagonal dots for each of the parties. Its such an artificial construct, and leads to a horribly contorted map of Britain - I wish they coloured in the constituencies in line with their actual position on a map of the Britain. The latter was actually much better, as it clearly showed the 'atomisation' of the electoral map with Labour now just an urban party of England along with its South Wales heartland and a few honourable exceptions eg Ynys Mon, Clwyd South.
Of the 8 Lib Dem victories, 2 of them (Clegg and Mulholland) were only due to Tories voting tactically Lib Dem - the Tory vote in Lib Dem Labour marginals has finally woken up to the realities of FPTP and voted tactically for the first time. The relatively small falls of Jo Swinson and Crockart in Edinburgh W were also clearly aided by Tory tactical voting. This may help any future Lib Dem revival where the Tories don't stand a chance in future. The other 6 Lib Dem victories were all because there was enough of a majority to cushion the swing against them.
Personally I don't think Farron will be the answer to the Lib Dems problems. Whilst undoubtedly he's a great campaigner, I think he lacks the necessary gravitas to launch a root and branch reform of the party. I would have thought that Norman Lamb would be the better long term choice as far as they are concerned.
Agree entirely. Farron would be a disaster (in a similar way, Cable would have been a disaster); far what is the point of having two parties fighting over a diminishing number of left of centre voters? Shame Danny lost. He would have been perfect.
One feature of the election night coverage I hated as an orienteer was the Hexagonal dots for each of the parties. Its such an artificial construct, and leads to a horribly contorted map of Britain - I wish they coloured in the constituencies in line with their actual position on a map of the Britain. The latter was actually much better, as it clearly showed the 'atomisation' of the electoral map with Labour now just an urban party of England along with its South Wales heartland and a few honourable exceptions eg Ynys Mon, Clwyd South.
Of the 8 Lib Dem victories, 2 of them (Clegg and Mulholland) were only due to Tories voting tactically Lib Dem - the Tory vote in Lib Dem Labour marginals has finally woken up to the realities of FPTP and voted tactically for the first time. The relatively small falls of Jo Swinson and Crockart in Edinburgh W were also clearly aided by Tory tactical voting. This may help any future Lib Dem revival where the Tories don't stand a chance in future. The other 6 Lib Dem victories were all because there was enough of a majority to cushion the swing against them.
Personally I don't think Farron will be the answer to the Lib Dems problems. Whilst undoubtedly he's a great campaigner, I think he lacks the necessary gravitas to launch a root and branch reform of the party. I would have thought that Norman Lamb would be the better long term choice as far as they are concerned.
One feature of the election night coverage I hated as an orienteer was the Hexagonal dots for each of the parties. Its such an artificial construct, and leads to a horribly contorted map of Britain - I wish they coloured in the constituencies in line with their actual position on a map of the Britain. The latter was actually much better, as it clearly showed the 'atomisation' of the electoral map with Labour now just an urban party of England along with its South Wales heartland and a few honourable exceptions eg Ynys Mon, Clwyd South.
Of the 8 Lib Dem victories, 2 of them (Clegg and Mulholland) were only due to Tories voting tactically Lib Dem - the Tory vote in Lib Dem Labour marginals has finally woken up to the realities of FPTP and voted tactically for the first time. The relatively small falls of Jo Swinson and Crockart in Edinburgh W were also clearly aided by Tory tactical voting. This may help any future Lib Dem revival where the Tories don't stand a chance in future. The other 6 Lib Dem victories were all because there was enough of a majority to cushion the swing against them.
Personally I don't think Farron will be the answer to the Lib Dems problems. Whilst undoubtedly he's a great campaigner, I think he lacks the necessary gravitas to launch a root and branch reform of the party. I would have thought that Norman Lamb would be the better long term choice as far as they are concerned.
The LD's won't be getting those tactical Tory votes if they pick Farron, will they?
I would honestly make the LD spread next time at something like 10-12 - and that's only high because of the possibility of a major shock to the system. Where on earth are they going to make gains?
One feature of the election night coverage I hated as an orienteer was the Hexagonal dots for each of the parties. Its such an artificial construct, and leads to a horribly contorted map of Britain - I wish they coloured in the constituencies in line with their actual position on a map of the Britain. The latter was actually much better, as it clearly showed the 'atomisation' of the electoral map with Labour now just an urban party of England along with its South Wales heartland and a few honourable exceptions eg Ynys Mon, Clwyd South.
Of the 8 Lib Dem victories, 2 of them (Clegg and Mulholland) were only due to Tories voting tactically Lib Dem - the Tory vote in Lib Dem Labour marginals has finally woken up to the realities of FPTP and voted tactically for the first time. The relatively small falls of Jo Swinson and Crockart in Edinburgh W were also clearly aided by Tory tactical voting. This may help any future Lib Dem revival where the Tories don't stand a chance in future. The other 6 Lib Dem victories were all because there was enough of a majority to cushion the swing against them.
Personally I don't think Farron will be the answer to the Lib Dems problems. Whilst undoubtedly he's a great campaigner, I think he lacks the necessary gravitas to launch a root and branch reform of the party. I would have thought that Norman Lamb would be the better long term choice as far as they are concerned.
The trouble with Norman Lamb is that he is a continuity Clegg candidate. LDs only hope is to get back the tactical votes of those on the centre-left - the protest vote has well and truly gone to UKIP. Farron, is lefty enough to get that vote back. Tories will not vote LD in large enough numbers tactically, to keep the party surviving in the long-term in the way the centre-left did for years.
Rod Grimond won 6 seats in 1959, in 9 in 1964 and 12 in 1966, Steel won 11 in 1979, 23 in 1983 and 22 in 1987
hunchman The main 'root and branch' reform the party needs to do is to run as far away from the Coalition as possible and try and win back some Labour tactical votes in Tory-LD marginals
I nearly forgot to mention - I discovered yesterday that one of my other half's brothers voted Tory. And on that bombshell - goodnight!
Not a very good Shy Tory!
I think I know why I voted Tory last Thursday.
I'm an extremely shy Tory.
I'm so painfully shy, in fact, that I found myself physically incapable of marking an 'X' in the Con box on my ballot paper.
Amazing changes in the Redbridge area demographically over the past 5 years by the looks of it - Gapes with a nigh on 20k majority in Ilford South which used to be one of the classic swing seats of London back in the 1970's, as well as Lee Scott coming undone.
Given how well Labour did, the Tories did very well only to lose a net of 2 seats in London. Does anybody know what factors led Tom Brake to hold on in Carshalton & Wallington? That was a real houdini act given the carnage for the Lib Dems everywhere else in London.
Watching Benefit street, it is on topic i promise. Here we have a Labour MP, who sounds relatively working class, not parachuted in. Yet he is completely out of his depth. You can see the sneer in his look, and that of his constituency office assistant (I assume it is, one of his staffers anyway).
He hasnt been to this street in the entire four years of being an MP. Not once. Thats quite sad that. And because the street is on the news he comes to it to 'deliver leaflets'.
He's all suited up, in 'member of parliament' mode. They see right through him.
Comments
Its very hard when you have campaigned for policies ABCD to accept that they were all wrong and that policies EFGH are the right course.. easier said than done and it needs a clear out of most of the old guard.. There are too many old guard people in the Labour party with links to the unions to affect sudden and real change IMHO.. I'll believe it when I see it..
There's a silly argument being made that its happened in Scotland but that's just not true. The Scottish SNP vote surged 4 years ago and has barely changed since.
2011 Holyrood SNP share 45.4%
2014 Indy Referendum Yes share 44.7%
2015 General Election SNP share 50%
Remarkably stable throughout. The surge happened four years ago, not last year. The last few months has been playing catch up and only swung another 4% (which isn't that surprising in a FPTP environment).
Standards are exacting, and not many authors survive unscathed.
I shall report back in due course, but I'm taking a big reputational risk..
The labour party's private pollster was on TV earlier saying their methods are different to news pollsters and, in his opinion, more likely to winkle out a true reflection.
I wonder why ;-)
In all honesty I don't see it as having any mammoth impact any more than any other calamity that befalls the party. UKIP voters seem to like Nigel and they give him a fair amount of slack.
If UKIP were going to flat on their gubs at the ballot box it was likely to at a GE when theres no time for a protest vote. Their percentage of the vote was pretty solid, they have potential coming out of their ears if they can harness it.
On another note, Labour leader market. Is Burnham a bad 2nd favourite? At this point, I think so. If you could eliminate him confidently the market becomes much more interesting. Then again, Labour gave the crown to Brown and then voted in Ed, two net vote losers if ever there were any so god knows.
As for Umunna mysteriously sprouting a girlfriend, just what is he trying to prove?
https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/597885390821969920
They had a Labour MP on R5 this afternoon and he said yes we must listen, and the presenter oh a straight answer to a question...then starting banging on about ZHC and foodbanks and the evil Tories when asked about Labour leadership / direction of Labour party.
I wish I could say the same for my predictions in England and Wales, although the overall patter - striking Labour outperformance in London and underperformance in the white working class areas / outperformance in urban areas v suburban / rural came as no surprise. As much as I hate to admit it as one of the very few centre-right voters in England that is very pro-SNP, the Tory scare stories about them more than did their work sadly. Whilst the SNP vote in Scotland was one of hope, the England and Wales Tory vote was one of fear.....therein lies a huge difference.
It seems that we get one of these type of unexpected election results every 20-25 years - witness 1945 (Labour understated) and the 3 Tory understatements of 1970, 1992 and now 2015. And look at how poorly Labour fared in 1950, the Tories in February 1974 and 1997 did.
And its 1992 on steroids in another way.......no doubt we'll have a Tory honeymoon until the summer recess. But the great economic turning point at the end of September this year that runs through to the end of January 2020 will be an absolute death knell to the Tories longer term.....pride comes before the fall as they say. That will lay waste to any reputation that Cameron and Osborne have currently for sound economic stewardship.....even though there are gaping holes in that story - terrible balance of payments / current account position and a deficit running at 5-6% of GDP when it was said in 2010 that the budget would be back in balance by now.
http://bit.ly/1IxpStD
We created the ECHR. We are a signatory to it. We are bound by it irrespective of any HRA or EU treaty. UK citizens have always been able to appeal to it.
It is a different organisation to the EU.
You have the warped view. All UK govts have been willing members of the ECHR since its founding.
This govt want to repeal the HRA and create a Bill of Rights which actually incorporates all the ECHR texts. It will then allow parliament to be final arbiter of UK law. Good.
It is far from clear that this is in any way incompatible with EU rules. The govt believes not. It would be hard to argue that any UK withdrawal from the convention if it happened would be a breach of these values in itself – particularly given the commitment to enshrine the convention's texts in domestic law. My understanding is the UK has a veto over EU accession to the convention and logic says it would use it.
Last December the Court of Justice of the EU ruled that the draft agreement on the accession of the EU to the ECHR was not compatible with EU law! Has it changed?
The good news is that my GE2015 betting account has been approved by Higher Authority, and my Licence to Carry Out Political Betting has been, as I expected, extended without demur.
The bad news is that there is disturbing talk of a Milbandesque raid on my profits, a sort of windfall tax, diverting them from the good use I had pencilled in - the Nabavi Claret Fund - to more mundane purposes. I've tried to argue that this will damage incentives and act as a brake on entrepreneurial zeal, but so far without success.
I expect a general hardening of the two party vote (as there was this time) but that will come from all minor parties, not just UKIP.
You have the perpetually undecided. A long time ago i worked out how to tease information out of undecided.
"Can we rely on your support?"
"undecided at the moment"
"Do you normally vote"
"oh yes"
"have you ever considered voting for us in the past?"
"no"
"sorry to bother you, have a nice evening"
Canvassing isnt about converting people (though it happens, and quite frequently), its about accurate date collection. If you collect the wrong information you are going to do nothing but agitate your opposition on election day when you annoy them to see if theyve gone out and vote.
I hope not too many regulars lost money on backing Nick based on what he wrote.
Where all public sector workers end up, too useless for the first two sectors so they end up in the third.
One thing I was happy about with the result was the failure of the Labour retreads (with a huge exception for Nick P in Broxtowe of course). Only Rob Marris in Wolverhampton SW and Joan Ryan in Enfield North were succesful. All the Tory retreads in 2001 fared disastrously from memory. Once you've lost on your own patch, its better to move on, however painful that may be for the individuals involved, even though that did nothing to help the likes of David Rendel in Somerton & Frome.
Or something else?
Honestly Labour just needs to shut up and listen. To us. Stop bossing us around. Stop talking to yourselves. Even Stella was on about listening to her activists. The poor bloody voter was scarcely given a look in.
Atlee came to power right after the war in the first election in a decade. The 'centre ground' was created by the war and Beveridge.
Blair promised reforms of Welfare, Pensions, Health and Education. He failed totally. Welfare for instance rocketed. It was in that context that Cameron pointed out the irony of he himself being the 'heir to Blair'. In actually tackling these issues he succeeded.
I never believed that crap about Soubry having given up. She would have and did fight like hell It must have irked NPXMP that Soubry wouldn't debate with him.. Why should she? I could have made efforts to find out the true position on the ground but in the end I was happy with the £40 that NP is donating to LUPUS UK..
Mike/OGH, I've just sent you an email (at 11.37).
YouGov returns, then?
"Mr Davies wrote on his Facebook page: “One voter decided to draw a detailed representation of a penis instead of a cross in my box on one ballot paper.
“Amazingly, because it was neatly drawn within the confines of the box the returning officer deemed it a valid vote. I’m not sure the artist meant it to count, but I am grateful. If I knew who it was, I would like to thank him ( or her) personally.”
http://www.scotsman.com/news/odd/penis-drawn-on-ballot-paper-deemed-valid-vote-1-3767513
1. By ECHR I was referring to the European Court of Human Rights not the Convention and yes the proposal is to withdraw from that - or rather to ignore their rulings henceforth.
2. Whatever the ECJ may say the EU is required by law to accede to the European Convention on Human Rights because it is written into article 6 of the Treaty for the European Union. If they do not accede they are in breach of their own treaty obligations.
3. The UK has no veto over EU accession because it is part of the treaty we signed up to.
So again, no matter what we might do in withdrawing from the court, when the EU accedes, as they will eventually because it is a treaty requirement, we will be back where we are as I am damn sure no lawyer is going to ignore the fact their client will be entitled as an EU citizen to appeal to the court.
Didn't he used to go out with Luciana Berger?
It is quite bizarre that she has been suspended by the NEC and I haven’t
The main difference between our polls and the newspaper polls is that we don’t ask the voting intention first. As Politicalbetting.com’s Mike Smithson found out when he accidentally participated in our only telephone poll of the last 4 years, we first ask respondents to think about the country, the economy, their top issues, the parties and the leaders. We think it gets them closer to their ballot box mindset.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/late-swing-labours-private-polls-showed-tories-ahead-christmas
I'm an extremely shy Tory.
I'm so painfully shy, in fact, that I found myself physically incapable of marking an 'X' in the Con box on my ballot paper.
Anthony Calvert who was defeated by Ed Balls in 2010 must be feeling particularly sick, and made no progress in Wakefield, rather a slight 1% reverse for the Tories there.
Of the 10 Tories who lost their seats to Labour, a lot of them must be feeling pretty sick as well, a lot of them put anything between 2,000 and 4,000 on their vote relative to 2010 yet still lost.
Labour's result in Wales hasn't received the scrutiny that I thought it would in amongst the carnage - the defeat in Gower can be explained by plenty of wealthy English retirees on the Gower peninsula changing the demographics of the seat, now moving in line with their couple of Pembrokeshire seats. I was still shocked that Ruane lost in the Vale of Clywd and the Labour failure in Cardiff North summed up their night in the prinicipality.
No one likes to realise that that they are yesterdays news.
I like the fact that while they are all dodging questions about standing, Liz was forthright about setting out her stall. Nothing wrong with ambition and aspiration.
I also don't think there was any other real leadership rival in the party; the Miliband brothers were relatively early in their parliamentary careers, especially Ed Miliband, as was Ed Balls. There's an argument they shouldn't have gotten rid of Blair, but I'm not too sure after Iraq, and following that the global financial crisis (had he stayed on) that he would have won 2010 anyway. In 2005, looking back on it - I was 11 at the time and felt like a fairly dull election - that Blair won simply because this country wasn't electing Michael Howard to be PM.
I was helping out in a Tory/LD marginal, and could see the wind was blowing. Where I live is safe blue, but I'd been having lots of conversations with solid Labour voters who were turned towards Green by EdM. Strangely, I was also seeing direct L-C converts or L-UKIP in working class pals. Not a single person I know was going to vote LD (I'm in my late 20s, last time ALL my uni pals voted LD for one reason, and ALL my school mates voted LD for another).
I wish I could claim some clairvoyance for the result (Midlands was key to the calculation re swing seats - and I'm a West Brom supporter, perhaps that is the only way to explain it). Downright finger in the air luck. I did once have a serious pollster startup discussion with a techie mate, though....
As for where Labour go from here - they're caught in a couple of massive squeezes:
1) English and Scottish nationalism and 2) the perennial problem of the liberal metropolitan elite vs social conservatism of the WWC.
The next 5 years will be fascinating for them. Whilst the global sovereign debt crisis should more than do to the Tories, its very much up for debate where my predicted catastrophic decline in the Tory vote will go. If UKIP play their cards right, it could go to them. One thing is for sure though...we'll see an increasing polarisation between left and right which has always historically been a hallmark of troubled times.
If it's from her other leadership rivals, then that's not too worrying. It shows they feel deeply threatened by her. I have no idea why Umunna is actually being considered a potential leader by anyone. He was one of Ed Miliband's most fervent supporters, and is clearly associated with Ed Milibandism. Given Miliband took the party backwards at this GE, you have to wonder why anyone would want more of the same.
I learned canvassing in 05. That was a tough year to be a Tory.
Of the 8 Lib Dem victories, 2 of them (Clegg and Mulholland) were only due to Tories voting tactically Lib Dem - the Tory vote in Lib Dem Labour marginals has finally woken up to the realities of FPTP and voted tactically for the first time. The relatively small falls of Jo Swinson and Crockart in Edinburgh W were also clearly aided by Tory tactical voting. This may help any future Lib Dem revival where the Tories don't stand a chance in future. The other 6 Lib Dem victories were all because there was enough of a majority to cushion the swing against them.
Personally I don't think Farron will be the answer to the Lib Dems problems. Whilst undoubtedly he's a great campaigner, I think he lacks the necessary gravitas to launch a root and branch reform of the party. I would have thought that Norman Lamb would be the better long term choice as far as they are concerned.
Edit: and the new system is nuts in terms of how little weight it puts on the opinions of MPs.
''One of the steps contemplated by the draft Agreement was the obtaining of an opinion from the CJEU on whether the Agreement was compatible with the EU Treaties. And the CJEU’s firm “non” to that question will inevitably set back the process, if not lead to its complete derailment.''
It is unusual for a GE to change more than 50-60 seats. The only one that I remember over 100 was 1997, even in 1983 only 60 or so seats swapped. David Cameron gained 97 in 2010 to set the scene for gaining 25 this time. It is funny how some critics consider the first a failure, though they do seem noticeably quieter on the subject now.
I would honestly make the LD spread next time at something like 10-12 - and that's only high because of the possibility of a major shock to the system. Where on earth are they going to make gains?
hunchman The main 'root and branch' reform the party needs to do is to run as far away from the Coalition as possible and try and win back some Labour tactical votes in Tory-LD marginals
Given how well Labour did, the Tories did very well only to lose a net of 2 seats in London. Does anybody know what factors led Tom Brake to hold on in Carshalton & Wallington? That was a real houdini act given the carnage for the Lib Dems everywhere else in London.
He hasnt been to this street in the entire four years of being an MP. Not once. Thats quite sad that. And because the street is on the news he comes to it to 'deliver leaflets'.
He's all suited up, in 'member of parliament' mode. They see right through him.