There was no late swing. There's just been a Tory lead for months that's been undetected. I'm convinced of this. There is no way it was really level between Con and Lab, and suddenly on polling day a seven-point swing towards the Tories occurred.
ICM was showing about a 3% lead except for that very last one, where they may have got unlucky with their sample or panicked and gone with the herd. I think it's quite plausible that the underlying position was Con +3, then 2% of voters (1 Lab supporter in 15) swung Lab-Con on the day to get you to Con +7.
I missed The Lost Honour of Christopher Jefferies on it's first outing. [Away getting my teeth done...]
Caught up on YouTube in light of the BAFTAS [you'll need unblocker for episode one]
Sensationally good stuff. Jason Watkins was utterly brilliant, one of the most mesmerising performances I've seen in my lifetime.
Yes, the Mail is having a pop at the BAFTAS for being 'politically correct' (well, all that spleen they'd been saving up for a Miliband government needs an outlet...) and moaned that Benedict Cumberbatch should have won - but good though he is, he doesn't get close to Watkins - if ever a role was a 'performance of a lifetime'.....
Comments
'The death of Tory Scotland' (sic)
Con vote in Scotland"
2001 360,658
2005 369,388
2010 412,905
2015 434,097
Con vote total:
2001 8.3 M
2005 8.7 M
2010 10.7 M
2015 11.3 M
Lab Vote Total:
2001 10.7 M
2005 9.5 M
2010 8.6 M
2015 9.3 M
1992 25.6%
1997 17.5%
2001 15.6%
2005 15.8%
2010 16.7%
2015 14.9%