Think if all the PBers that were going to vote Ukip under a new leader but now will have to stick with their old party! #missedopportunity
For all the stick Farage is getting for being reinstated at the behest of the money men )and I think he should stay out) I have seen little criticism of Ed Balls alleged grubby attempt to get back in.
If he had won Thanet South by 1 vote and UKIP had got 8% you would have been happy for him to stay?
Basically unless Carswell wanted the job, it was going to be a non MP, so Farage's reason for stepping down (not being in Westminster) was bogus.. as it stands he is the best man for the job, and he is in he job
Rejoice!
The issue is one of credibility. He set a condition he'd resign by if he failed - and he failed. If he'd won South Thanet by 1 vote then that would have been a success not a failure.
The mistake was saying he'd resign if he didn't win in the first place. But once said, he should honour his pledges.
So even though it is worse for UKIP, he should resign to keep other parties supporters happy? OK
Anyway, he did resign, but they didn't accept it
Everyone's happy!
So if I resign from my job and my boss does not accept it, then I have to stay? As I said down thread he thought he was a certainty to win. After his loss he said he was a man of his word. Does resigning for 4 days mean he has kept his word?
He offered his resignation, that's what you do.. they didn't accept it.. he is still UKIP leader get over it
I was worried when he resigned because it is such a big loss, now I can see the other parties supporters agreed w me
You might say "If I ever cheat on my wife I will tell her, and offer to leave" She might say "I still want you to stay" Do you leave anyway even though both sides would rather you didn't because of what other people might think?
I won my only (admittedly small) bet on the election; did anyone else hav a 100% record?
I think I definitely won the anagram election. I haven't seen any others, but Weird Amid Bland was clearly awesome. And my Election Day special (just in case anyone missed it: Scottish National Party = I train total sycophants) was clearly another triumph!
Brilliant Anagrams!
My favourite one for Shirley Williams was "I twirl aimlessly" perhaps you had to be in the SDP in the eighties to appreciate it.
I'm very pleased we have new leaders coming; I'll have a chance to do all the election contenders!
'We don't like the result, so lets change the voting system'.
In a parallel universe, the Conservative Government wants to redraw boundaries and reduce the number of seats, presumably because it doesn't like the results of the old system.
What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be to be British. I had always thought the accusation of being unpatriotic was an unfair smear from those on the hard right, as all the Labour voters I know in real life are very proud of their country. But many of these people seem to be openly attacking this country and its people. If they express this view in pubs and bars, it doesn't surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.
It's not really a surprise. George Orwell was writing in the 1940s about how British lefties disliked their own country.
A bit hyperbolic! There are some intellectuals like that. But the majority of the crowds dancing in the street at VE day were in the polling booths voting Labour the same summer.
But no-one doubted Clement Attlees patriotism having been wounded in action himself. Incidentally, not only would he kiss a Tory - he married one.
Nothing unpatriotic about being left wing, but it is often loyalty and devotion to a different facet of Britishness than the facets that aristocrats are loyal to.
I've been told on here that you can't judge many of those on the centre-right online, as representative of all those on the right. Yet the odd twitter, or Guardians' comments section now represents the views of everyone on the centre -left?
calum If the SNP lose just 5 seats to Labour at the constituency level but hold the same number of regional lists seats they lose their majority by 1 seat. Now the SNP hold power at Holyrood and have most Scottish seats at Westminster they will also begin to be judged on their own record
But the SNP HAVE been in power for one and almost another full term - that's ample time to be judged by their record. By their fruits shall ye know them.
What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be t surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.
It's not really a surprise. George Orwell was writing in the 1940s about how British lefties disliked their own country.
A bit hyperbolic! There are some intellectuals like that. But the majority of the crowds dancing in the street at VE day were in the polling booths voting Labour the same summer.
But no-one doubted Clement Attlees patriotism having been wounded in action himself. Incidentally, not only would he kiss a Tory - he married one.
Nothing unpatriotic about being left wing, but it is often loyalty and devotion to a different facet of Britishness than the facets that aristocrats are loyal to.
But this new breed of Lefties are unashamed in their revulsion at most of their fellow Brits. They positively revel in it. "Voters are scum", "c*nts", etc.
Makes them feel posher and smarter, I guess.
That is a new phenomenon, and not a very happy one, I'd suggest, for Labour's electoral prospects, if this derangement continues.
Bollocks! Orwell wrote his comments in the 30's; Nye Bevan famously decribed Tories as "lower than vermin". Or the hatred of Maggie shown in the eighties at the poll tax riots. There is nothing new in invective.
I (politely) disagree, again. Back in the day, the spleen was directed at politicians and maybe their close supporters, donors, etc.
Now the venom is expectorated everywhere, even (especially?) at humble voters. These new guys are happy to abuse and insult average working class Brits, and quite violently, too.
Of course the echo chamber effect of the Internet magnifies and makes it all worse: the horriblest voices are surely a minority but they seem like a majority because they are the most noticeable.
There was a message on here about a shop that wanted Tory voters to identify themselves so he could add a 10% "tax".
I thought it was a joke. Turns out the guy (shop in Lewes) really meant his anger - but only one person had so far admitted to being a Tory after they had paid.
This must be discriminatory and illegal, surely?
Wouldn't it fall under trading law that you can't charge more than the advertised price?
What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be to be British. I had always thought the accusation of being unpatriotic was an unfair smear from those on the hard right, as all the Labour voters I know in real life are very proud of their country. But many of these people seem to be openly attacking this country and its people. If they express this view in pubs and bars, it doesn't surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.
It's not really a surprise. George Orwell was writing in the 1940s about how British lefties disliked their own country.
Long before that, WS Gilbert in the Mikado:
"Then the idiot who praises, with enthusiastic tone, All centuries but this, and every country but his own;"
What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be to be British. I had always thought the accusation of being unpatriotic was an unfair smear from those on the hard right, as all the Labour voters I know in real life are very proud of their country. But many of these people seem to be openly attacking this country and its people. If they express this view in pubs and bars, it doesn't surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.
It's not really a surprise. George Orwell was writing in the 1940s about how British lefties disliked their own country.
A bit hyperbolic! There are some intellectuals like that. But the majority of the crowds dancing in the street at VE day were in the polling booths voting Labour the same summer.
But no-one doubted Clement Attlees patriotism having been wounded in action himself. Incidentally, not only would he kiss a Tory - he married one.
Nothing unpatriotic about being left wing, but it is often loyalty and devotion to a different facet of Britishness than the facets that aristocrats are loyal to.
I've been told on here that you can't judge many of those on the centre-right online, as representative of all those on the right. Yet the odd twitter, or Guardians' comments section now represents the views of everyone on the centre -left?
That's fair
The posts on here about voters and Labour the day before the GE when the polls were moving Labour's way were a sight to see.
TP The Canadian general election of 1993 could give the Tories nightmares. In 1988 Brian Mulroney's Tories won 43% and 169/295 seats. At the 1993 election the Canadian Tories won 2 seats and 16%, the UKIP like Reform Party 52 seats and 18% http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993
What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be t surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.
It's not really a surprise. George Orwell was writing in the 1940s about how British lefties disliked their own country.
A bit hyperbolic! There are some intellectuals like that. But the majority of the crowds dancing in the street at VE day were in the polling booths voting Labour the same summer.
But no-one doubted Clement Attlees patriotism having been wounded in action himself. Incidentally, not only would he kiss a Tory - he married one.
Nothing unpatriotic about being left wing, but it is often loyalty and devotion to a different facet of Britishness than the facets that aristocrats are loyal to.
But this new breed of Lefties are unashamed in their revulsion at most of their fellow Brits. They positively revel in it. "Voters are scum", "c*nts", etc.
Makes them feel posher and smarter, I guess.
That is a new phenomenon, and not a very happy one, I'd suggest, for Labour's electoral prospects, if this derangement continues.
Bollocks! Orwell wrote his comments in the 30's; Nye Bevan famously decribed Tories as "lower than vermin". Or the hatred of Maggie shown in the eighties at the poll tax riots. There is nothing new in invective.
I (politely) disagree, again. Back in the day, the spleen was directed at politicians and maybe their close supporters, donors, etc.
Now the venom is expectorated everywhere, even (especially?) at humble voters. These new guys are happy to abuse and insult average working class Brits, and quite violently, too.
Of course the echo chamber effect of the Internet magnifies and makes it all worse: the horriblest voices are surely a minority but they seem like a majority because they are the most noticeable.
There was a message on here about a shop that wanted Tory voters to identify themselves so he could add a 10% "tax".
I thought it was a joke. Turns out the guy (shop in Lewes) really meant his anger - but only one person had so far admitted to being a Tory after they had paid.
This must be discriminatory and illegal, surely?
Wouldn't it fall under trading law that you can't charge more than the advertised price?
Haven't they advertised the new price with the sign?
Presumably comments on the Guido, Telegraph and Mail sites, and on here, are representative of right wingers.
Shudder. It's bad enough to read such bile without the thought it is representative of people in general, so I hope not. PB Tories aren't really like that, generally - they're just exuberant right now.
Labour going backwards after tacking to the left for their first term in opposition? Third parties seizing chunks of the Labour vote? I'll stick with 1983.
Enjoy your lefty, love in bashing while it lasts. Labour lost the last two elections because of terrible, terrible, terrible leadership choices. Provided it doesn't make another terrible choice I fully expect the political gravity to return shortly to the centre progressives, i.e. Labour.
Dream on!
Labour are finished in Scotland and are struggling in their heartlands. By 2025 all you will have left are the champagne socialists and corrupt areas like Tower Hamlets.
Enjoy your lefty, love in bashing while it lasts. Labour lost the last two elections because of terrible, terrible, terrible leadership choices. Provided it doesn't make another terrible choice I fully expect the political gravity to return shortly to the centre progressives, i.e. Labour.
Not without Scotland it won't. And Scotland is not coming back to Labour, there is no logical reason for this to happen.
And you were TEN points behind the Tories in England. And UKIP is gobbling up your WWC core.
If the Tories don't implode over the EUref, then Labour will find it very very hard to get a majority in 2020. Best hope is a plurality. And if the Tories time the next economic boomlet right, you will lose again.
Given that the last elections labour won they would have won without Scotland why do you say that?
I think Ireland in the late 1800s is our best guide as to what will happen in UK General Elections in Scotland now tbh.
RIC are poised and waiting.
And unlike Ireland, I don't think it would take 40 years of SNP dithering to get a more radical alternative break through.
Having said that, I am relatively confident the SNP won't dither, have their strategy in place and the Second Referendum will be between 2017 and 2019.
I won my only (admittedly small) bet on the election; did anyone else hav a 100% record?
I think I definitely won the anagram election. I haven't seen any others, but Weird Amid Bland was clearly awesome. And my Election Day special (just in case anyone missed it: Scottish National Party = I train total sycophants) was clearly another triumph!
Brilliant Anagrams!
My favourite one for Shirley Williams was "I twirl aimlessly" perhaps you had to be in the SDP in the eighties to appreciate it.
A couple of my favourites are George Best, go get beers, and every ladies dreamboat David Ginola, vagina dildo
Labour going backwards after tacking to the left for their first term in opposition? Third parties seizing chunks of the Labour vote? I'll stick with 1983.
Does anyone else think that, despite the FTPA, 2019 might be value?
Why? If the government gets through to 2019, what is to stop it lasting the extra year? Presumably the dip at 2017 and 18 is in case the referendum goes disastrously wrong and somehow brings down the government. Is there a significant event planned for 2019?
I won my only (admittedly small) bet on the election; did anyone else hav a 100% record?
I think I definitely won the anagram election. I haven't seen any others, but Weird Amid Bland was clearly awesome. And my Election Day special (just in case anyone missed it: Scottish National Party = I train total sycophants) was clearly another triumph!
I only made two bets but won both. Seems silly to call it a 100% record when it's so small though.
I won my only (admittedly small) bet on the election; did anyone else hav a 100% record?
I think I definitely won the anagram election. I haven't seen any others, but Weird Amid Bland was clearly awesome. And my Election Day special (just in case anyone missed it: Scottish National Party = I train total sycophants) was clearly another triumph!
Brilliant Anagrams!
My favourite one for Shirley Williams was "I twirl aimlessly" perhaps you had to be in the SDP in the eighties to appreciate it.
A couple of my favourites are George Best, go get beers, and every ladies dreamboat David Ginola, vagina dildo
I think Ireland in the late 1800s is our best guide as to what will happen in UK General Elections in Scotland now tbh.
RIC are poised and waiting.
And unlike Ireland, I don't think it would take 40 years of SNP dithering to get a more radical alternative break through.
Having said that, I am relatively confident the SNP won't dither, have their strategy in place and the Second Referendum will be between 2017 and 2019.
And if it is a No (suspend your disbelief for a moment), will we have one every three years until it is a Yes?
To win the next election on the current boundaries Labour needs a swing in England & Wales just 0.9% less than the one Blair achieved in 1997. 9.4% vs 10.3%. (Assumes Labour won't win back any Scottish seats from the SNP).
I look forward to when we've voted slightly in favour of staying in the EU, let's say by around 10%, and a new female UKIP leader, let's call her Nikki Trout, storms to victory in the ensuing GE with 620/650 seats. Surely the EU will give her everything she wants?
Carnyx Scottish Tories can vote Labour first in the Central belt and Lothian etc and Tory on the list. If the SNP only lose a handful of seats they lose their majority, Labour almost certainly only held Edinburgh South at the general election because of Tory tactical voting
Hmm, thanks. The problems I have with that are
1.On current performance the SNP would clean out even more of the constituency seats - coming close to 50% of seats on that alone. As antifrank pointed out for last week's election, tactical voting can only have a pretty marginal effect.
2. On the lsit vote, on current performance, again, SLAB are going down to about a quarter of the vote - whereas the Tories have a pretty solid core vote of about a sixth. But don't forget the LDs and UKIP will be squeezing each a little, and the Tories will find it more worthwhile to vote for their own. The Greens and SSP will also be hitting Labour, and I think our PBer colleagues are right in suspecting that a SNP constituency-Green list vote will be a significant factor.
In any case, we have a year of politics to get through, and it's not just the SNP who are the incumbents. So too are the Tories, in another but very real sense.
BTW I've seen a different analysis of Edinburgh South from another Pber that woudl differ from you, but myself I can't really judge.
Does anyone else think that, despite the FTPA, 2019 might be value?
Why? If the government gets through to 2019, what is to stop it lasting the extra year? Presumably the dip at 2017 and 18 is in case the referendum goes disastrously wrong and somehow brings down the government. Is there a significant event planned for 2019?
Best news the party could have had.. No wonder the others are angry
His resignation was rejected... He didn't unresign
Myself, I am not angry, It's a pathetic joke really isn't it?
I remember when you used to say you would tell it like it was rather than spin.
I do tell it as it is
He offered his resignation and it wasn't accepted. That's how it is
Why did he accept the rejection of his resignation - he could have resigned anyway.
Or he could have gone back through the leadership election process to establish legitimacy.
What he did will now undermine him for a long time. Everytime he says something, other politicians won't have to reply to it - they can just say they are waiting for Farage to change his mind again.
Enjoy your lefty, love in bashing while it lasts. Labour lost the last two elections because of terrible, terrible, terrible leadership choices. Provided it doesn't make another terrible choice I fully expect the political gravity to return shortly to the centre progressives, i.e. Labour.
Not without Scotland it won't. And Scotland is not coming back to Labour, there is no logical reason for this to happen.
And you were TEN points behind the Tories in England. And UKIP is gobbling up your WWC core.
If the Tories don't implode over the EUref, then Labour will find it very very hard to get a majority in 2020. Best hope is a plurality. And if the Tories time the next economic boomlet right, you will lose again.
Given that the last elections labour won they would have won without Scotland why do you say that?
Because "middle England" is utterly terrified of the SNP ! Not everyone in Nuneaton backed them at the bookies
That is Labour's problem, the SNP are visible in parliament, and it worries alot of English people.
What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be t surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.
It's not really a surprise. George Orwell was writing in the 1940s about how British lefties disliked their own country.
Nothing unpatriotic about being left wing, but it is often loyalty and devotion to a different facet of Britishness than the facets that aristocrats are loyal to.
But this new breed of Lefties are unashamed in their revulsion at most of their fellow Brits. They positively revel in it. "Voters are scum", "c*nts", etc.
Makes them feel posher and smarter, I guess.
That is a new phenomenon, and not a very happy one, I'd suggest, for Labour's electoral prospects, if this derangement continues.
Bollocks! Orwell wrote his comments in the 30's; Nye Bevan famously decribed Tories as "lower than vermin". Or the hatred of Maggie shown in the eighties at the poll tax riots. There is nothing new in invective.
I (politely) disagree, again. Back in the day, the spleen was directed at politicians and maybe their close supporters, donors, etc.
Now the venom is expectorated everywhere, even (especially?) at humble voters. These new guys are happy to abuse and insult average working class Brits, and quite violently, too.
Of course the echo chamber effect of the Internet magnifies and makes it all worse: the horriblest voices are surely a minority but they seem like a majority because they are the most noticeable.
There was a message on here about a shop that wanted Tory voters to identify themselves so he could add a 10% "tax".
I thought it was a joke. Turns out the guy (shop in Lewes) really meant his anger - but only one person had so far admitted to being a Tory after they had paid.
This must be discriminatory and illegal, surely?
Wouldn't it fall under trading law that you can't charge more than the advertised price?
Haven't they advertised the new price with the sign?
If the product is advertised at price X. Does the board outside really cut the mustard? IANAL but I guess it wouldn't. Whatever, it has got the store a load of free publicity.
Carnyx Indeed, I have no doubt the SNP will top the poll, but there will be no insurgency next year it will be about whether they can hold their majority
Haven't they advertised the new price with the sign?
Yes. But in any case under contract law the advertised price is merely an "invitation to treat" and does not bind the vendor, it can be withdrawn or increased at any time.
It would be interesting if you were liable for breach of contract if you paid the lower price and were subsequently found to have voted Conservative. Presumably ballot secrecy would ensure you cannot be found to have voted one way with any degree of certainty.
Enjoy your lefty, love in bashing while it lasts. Labour lost the last two elections because of terrible, terrible, terrible leadership choices. Provided it doesn't make another terrible choice I fully expect the political gravity to return shortly to the centre progressives, i.e. Labour.
With the right leader (and no one can doubt Liz Kendall's ambition!) Labour can make a quick comeback. While 100 seats are needed for a majority, 50-60 would put The Tories on the opposition benches. Very do-able, particularly if the LDs make a recovery too. Remember: when Labour gain seats, so do the Lib dems (and vice versa). It has been true for decades.
Come on comrades! There is work to be done!
This election had a lot of fairly half-hearted Tory voters. The last 5 years were OK, not great, for many people. Combined with the leadership factor this put a lot of crosses in Con boxes. This election was 2001 rather than 1992, with Ed Miliband as William Hague. The difference is that Tony Blair had a 180 seat majority, not 6 seats.
Does anyone else think that, despite the FTPA, 2019 might be value?
Why? If the government gets through to 2019, what is to stop it lasting the extra year? Presumably the dip at 2017 and 18 is in case the referendum goes disastrously wrong and somehow brings down the government. Is there a significant event planned for 2019?
Because I can anticipate circumstances where it might well be lower than that in the next four years, in which case it makes some sense as a trading bet. What if Dave stands down halfway through 2018?
Not sure how useful it is to use PPP. Everything in China is cheaper than in the West, but that doesn't mean most of them can afford to go on holiday in the West or buy Western currency.
What most surprises me about many of the comments from left-wing activists on social media is how ashamed many of them seem to be to be British. I had always thought the accusation of being unpatriotic was an unfair smear from those on the hard right, as all the Labour voters I know in real life are very proud of their country. But many of these people seem to be openly attacking this country and its people. If they express this view in pubs and bars, it doesn't surprise me that so many working class voters ticked the UKIP box.
It's not really a surprise. George Orwell was writing in the 1940s about how British lefties disliked their own country.
A bit hyperbolic! There are some intellectuals like that. But the majority of the crowds dancing in the street at VE day were in the polling booths voting Labour the same summer.
But no-one doubted Clement Attlees patriotism having been wounded in action himself. Incidentally, not only would he kiss a Tory - he married one.
Nothing unpatriotic about being left wing, but it is often loyalty and devotion to a different facet of Britishness than the facets that aristocrats are loyal to.
I've been told on here that you can't judge many of those on the centre-right online, as representative of all those on the right. Yet the odd twitter, or Guardians' comments section now represents the views of everyone on the centre -left?
But there is a difference. No esteemed Tory philosopher would write something like that Rebecca Roache bilge, where she equates Tories with racists and says she can never be friends with them, as they are inherently morally inferior. Yet she is a respected philosopher at Royal Holloway. What do her conservative students think?
Comments below the line have always been nuts, on both sides. But the Labour hatred and vitriol now comes from apparently sensible people: the intelligentsia, even. The syphilis has spread to the brain.
Terminal stage, as I understand.
No, Tory philosophers and film makers might express or retweet different kinds of vitriol.
There are fools and morons on all parts of the political spectrum. I've had a well known right wing novelist wish death on me on the web merely because I am a leftie.
Obviously it won't happen, but the most hilarious outcome at Holyrood would be the Tories somehow getting the highest vote - we'd all be so confused what on earth the Scots were telling us.
Does anyone else think that, despite the FTPA, 2019 might be value?
Why? If the government gets through to 2019, what is to stop it lasting the extra year? Presumably the dip at 2017 and 18 is in case the referendum goes disastrously wrong and somehow brings down the government. Is there a significant event planned for 2019?
By-elections and defections, I guess.
Mind you 1/2 looks massive but unbackable.
Taking the 1-2 now is a bet on interest rates staying low for 5 years. Also too much of an opportunity cost. Could go wrong too ^^;
Cobblers to your bollocks. ! Cameron has plainly said we do not want to be part of any ever closer union. 'Not want'. Given the Euro and Eurozone, that is the way the EU is going. We have to negotiate around that. 'That' being the non single market - the closer financial and political union. Being in the EEA is one option, but really as far as the single market and movement of labour it will not make much difference to us compared to now. But you come close to grasping the point. The EU is there even without us. A changing EU. It is not going to go away. Even the Euro, much to my amazement is not going to go away. We need renegotiation, we need a referendum. Inevitably there will be much hysteria on the way. Clearly it has started now.
So you accept what I said then. The Single Market is only one small part of the EU and we would be far better off out and just part of the EEA trading bloc. Only Europhiles like yourself are still trying to convince us there would be no difference between the two.
And as to negotiation it was always going to be and always will be bollocks. Right now Cameron is going on about repealing the HRA - which would mean leaving the ECHR. Which is funny given that the EU as a whole is currently in the latter stages of joining the ECHR in its own right which will just bring us straight back to where we are now.
I have said on various occasions that being in the EEA would not bother me. I've also said it would not make much difference but keep us out of the political stuff. I've said it above. I repeat - Cameron does not want closer union, very few Brits do. We are not in the euro and not likely to be. All of this means negotiations. Its likely we can get to stay in and be outside of the political and monetary bit. ie just like in the EEA bit with some say. Either way - the EU is still there and we will be in the single market. In or Out thats what European trade means The ECHR has nothing to do with the EU.
Tissue Price Miliband actually increased Labour's share of the vote slightly to around 30%and won slightly more MPs than Kinnock did in 1987, about 230, had they held their Scottish seats they would have had 270 odd, same as 1992. In 2001 Hague got 160 odd seats, in 1983 Foot won 27% and around 200 seats
To win the next election on the current boundaries Labour needs a swing in England & Wales just 0.9% less than the one Blair achieved in 1997. 9.4% vs 10.3%. (Assumes Labour won't win back any Scottish seats from the SNP).
I think Ireland in the late 1800s is our best guide as to what will happen in UK General Elections in Scotland now tbh.
RIC are poised and waiting.
And unlike Ireland, I don't think it would take 40 years of SNP dithering to get a more radical alternative break through.
Having said that, I am relatively confident the SNP won't dither, have their strategy in place and the Second Referendum will be between 2017 and 2019.
And if it is a No (suspend your disbelief for a moment), will we have one every three years until it is a Yes?
Don't see why not. It's an important issue and people's attitudes change.
Has no other impact despite the ridiculous claims of "uncertainty" given that all through the process the Scottish and UK economies have continued to (roughly) shadow each other.
Carnyx Indeed, I have no doubt the SNP will top the poll, but there will be no insurgency next year it will be about whether they can hold their majority
The SNP have a Conservative Gov't to rail against - probably for over a decade. The remaining few % for independence can be whipped up no worries. Scotland will be independent before 2024 I reckon.
Enjoy your lefty, love in bashing while it lasts. Labour lost the last two elections because of terrible, terrible, terrible leadership choices. Provided it doesn't make another terrible choice I fully expect the political gravity to return shortly to the centre progressives, i.e. Labour.
Labour under a different leader but with the same Lefty policies as Miliband would have met the same fate.
SeanT I think after another 3 years of public service cuts most voters will be relatively weary, so provided Labour can get a more aspirational message combined with investment in public services as Blair managed they might at least manage a deal with perhaps a semi revived LDs, especially if the Tories are divided after a narrow In EU vote
Carnyx Indeed, I have no doubt the SNP will top the poll, but there will be no insurgency next year it will be about whether they can hold their majority
The SNP have a Conservative Gov't to rail against - probably for over a decade. The remaining few % for independence can be whipped up no worries. Scotland will be independent before 2024 I reckon.
< 2. On the lsit vote, on current performance, again, SLAB are going down to about a quarter of the vote - whereas the Tories have a pretty solid core vote of about a sixth. But don't forget the LDs and UKIP will be squeezing each a little, and the Tories will find it more worthwhile to vote for their own. The Greens and SSP will also be hitting Labour, and I think our PBer colleagues are right in suspecting that a SNP constituency-Green list vote will be a significant factor.
SLAB were on 26% of the List vote IN 2011.
They aren't going down to 25%. They are going down FROM 25% perhaps to less than 15%.
Best news the party could have had.. No wonder the others are angry
His resignation was rejected... He didn't unresign
Myself, I am not angry, It's a pathetic joke really isn't it?
I remember when you used to say you would tell it like it was rather than spin.
I do tell it as it is
He offered his resignation and it wasn't accepted. That's how it is
Why did he accept the rejection of his resignation - he could have resigned anyway.
Or he could have gone back through the leadership election process to establish legitimacy.
What he did will now undermine him for a long time. Everytime he says something, other politicians won't have to reply to it - they can just say they are waiting for Farage to change his mind again.
No what has happened is non Kippers were happy he had resigned because it made UKIP less of a threat and are now annoyed that he is back because its better for UKIP
Use as many words as you like to try and sound reasonable and make a case otherwise, but that's the truth
To win the next election on the current boundaries Labour needs a swing in England & Wales just 0.9% less than the one Blair achieved in 1997. 9.4% vs 10.3%. (Assumes Labour won't win back any Scottish seats from the SNP).
Who's the Blair in the Labour leadership election?
To win the next election on the current boundaries Labour needs a swing in England & Wales just 0.9% less than the one Blair achieved in 1997. 9.4% vs 10.3%. (Assumes Labour won't win back any Scottish seats from the SNP).
Who's the Blair in the Labour leadership election?
Mr. Observer, a legitimate point, except that Cameron's won two elections and he and Osborne have the trust (at least more than Labour) of the electorate. Raising doubts about someone's suitability for the job is a blunter attack line when they've just been returned to office with more votes, more seats and (perhaps uniquely) moved from coalition to outright majority.
Of course. I was merely pointing out the stupidity of Mr Bond's original post about Liz Kendall being a no hoper because she had not run a company.
Where did I "post about Liz Kendall being a no hoper because she had not run a company"?
Dair There are seats around Edinburgh in particular where tactical voting could come into play, it certainly saved Labour Edinburgh South
I did say hardly any. SNP need 65/73 List seats to have a Majority regardless of the List. Adjusting for the GE result, hey start well above this level of performance. Tactical voting would have to win seats with 45% SNP votes.
45% targets for tactical voting is extremely unrealistic.
Best news the party could have had.. No wonder the others are angry
His resignation was rejected... He didn't unresign
Myself, I am not angry, It's a pathetic joke really isn't it?
I remember when you used to say you would tell it like it was rather than spin.
I do tell it as it is
He offered his resignation and it wasn't accepted. That's how it is
Why did he accept the rejection of his resignation - he could have resigned anyway.
Or he could have gone back through the leadership election process to establish legitimacy.
What he did will now undermine him for a long time. Everytime he says something, other politicians won't have to reply to it - they can just say they are waiting for Farage to change his mind again.
No what has happened is non Kippers were happy he had resigned because it made UKIP less of a threat and are now annoyed that he is back because its better for UKIP
Use as many words as you like to try and sound reasonable and make a case otherwise, but that's the truth
I'm not sure I agree. I think UKIP have reached a peak with Nigel; there's no-one left who hasn't formed an opinion on him. I think Suzanne Evans or Paul Nuttal could have tapped new seams without alienating the support they already have.
I don't think this is a BAD move. They'll still probably do just as well in the Euros. But I don't think it's a good move to win new ground at the GE in 5 years' time.
To win the next election on the current boundaries Labour needs a swing in England & Wales just 0.9% less than the one Blair achieved in 1997. 9.4% vs 10.3%. (Assumes Labour won't win back any Scottish seats from the SNP).
Who's the Blair in the Labour leadership election?
Liz Kendall. The ambition and vision of Blair, before Tony went over to the dark side to become (in)Vader.
The SNP could annexe us.. Amusing that that's considered more likely than UKIP!
You are omitting the possibility that the SNP put up candidates in rUK in the next UKGE to further their social policies ...
the SNP become a Unionist party ? I'll vote for you if you do :-)
Oh, I don't believe it will happen - those odds are about right I suspect, so you needn't worry (though I wonder about the situation if Labour don't extract their collective digit from their proctodaeum asap: there might be an opening for a local franchise ...).
@Lucy Jones - I understand you completely. I have never hurled abuse at Kippers.
You are speaking to someone who was backing them less than 2 months ago. I returned to the Conservative fold and am planning to rejoin the party later this week.
Haven't they advertised the new price with the sign?
Yes. But in any case under contract law the advertised price is merely an "invitation to treat" and does not bind the vendor, it can be withdrawn or increased at any time.
It would be interesting if you were liable for breach of contract if you paid the lower price and were subsequently found to have voted Conservative. Presumably ballot secrecy would ensure you cannot be found to have voted one way with any degree of certainty.
But there's more to it than the law of contract. s. 20 Consumer Protection Act 1987 makes misleading price advertising illegal.
Enjoy your lefty, love in bashing while it lasts. Labour lost the last two elections because of terrible, terrible, terrible leadership choices. Provided it doesn't make another terrible choice I fully expect the political gravity to return shortly to the centre progressives, i.e. Labour.
With the right leader (and no one can doubt Liz Kendall's ambition!) Labour can make a quick comeback. While 100 seats are needed for a majority, 50-60 would put The Tories on the opposition benches. Very do-able, particularly if the LDs make a recovery too. Remember: when Labour gain seats, so do the Lib dems (and vice versa). It has been true for decades.
Come on comrades! There is work to be done!
This election had a lot of fairly half-hearted Tory voters. The last 5 years were OK, not great, for many people. Combined with the leadership factor this put a lot of crosses in Con boxes. This election was 2001 rather than 1992, with Ed Miliband as William Hague. The difference is that Tony Blair had a 180 seat majority, not 6 seats.
You confuse me. I can't work out whom you support or why!
Best news the party could have had.. No wonder the others are angry
His resignation was rejected... He didn't unresign
Myself, I am not angry, It's a pathetic joke really isn't it?
I remember when you used to say you would tell it like it was rather than spin.
I do tell it as it is
He offered his resignation and it wasn't accepted. That's how it is
Why did he accept the rejection of his resignation - he could have resigned anyway.
Or he could have gone back through the leadership election process to establish legitimacy.
What he did will now undermine him for a long time. Everytime he says something, other politicians won't have to reply to it - they can just say they are waiting for Farage to change his mind again.
No what has happened is non Kippers were happy he had resigned because it made UKIP less of a threat and are now annoyed that he is back because its better for UKIP
Use as many words as you like to try and sound reasonable and make a case otherwise, but that's the truth
I'm not sure I agree. I think UKIP have reached a peak with Nigel; there's no-one left who hasn't formed an opinion on him. I think Suzanne Evans or Paul Nuttal could have tapped new seams without alienating the support they already have.
I don't think this is a BAD move. They'll still probably do just as well in the Euros. But I don't think it's a good move to win new ground at the GE in 5 years' time.
That was generally my feeling. In many ways I'm glad to see him stick around, but I feel the man has done as much as he can for UKIP. In a way becoming an MP then retiring as leader could in some ways have been an easing of the pressure on his shoulders in some ways, and he would have remained a key asset for the party, so its a shame he didn't win.
And one thing I liked a lot about the UKIP manifesto (which was the best laid out of the manifestos) was how each section was introduced by the other senior figures in the party, many of whom I even recognised, which I think reflects well on them as a party that has managed to grow the profile of some members, even if Farage remained the face and biggest asset.
Best news the party could have had.. No wonder the others are angry
His resignation was rejected... He didn't unresign
Myself, I am not angry, It's a pathetic joke really isn't it?
I remember when you used to say you would tell it like it was rather than spin.
I do tell it as it is
He offered his resignation and it wasn't accepted. That's how it is
Why did he accept the rejection of his resignation - he could have resigned anyway.
Or he could have gone back through the leadership election process to establish legitimacy.
What he did will now undermine him for a long time. Everytime he says something, other politicians won't have to reply to it - they can just say they are waiting for Farage to change his mind again.
No what has happened is non Kippers were happy he had resigned because it made UKIP less of a threat and are now annoyed that he is back because its better for UKIP
Use as many words as you like to try and sound reasonable and make a case otherwise, but that's the truth
True, isam. But they'd still rather he attempted to resign and came back than he'd just stuck it out. Surely some voters in Thanet wanted to decapitate UKIP after all.
< 2. On the lsit vote, on current performance, again, SLAB are going down to about a quarter of the vote - whereas the Tories have a pretty solid core vote of about a sixth. But don't forget the LDs and UKIP will be squeezing each a little, and the Tories will find it more worthwhile to vote for their own. The Greens and SSP will also be hitting Labour, and I think our PBer colleagues are right in suspecting that a SNP constituency-Green list vote will be a significant factor.
SLAB were on 26% of the List vote IN 2011.
They aren't going down to 25%. They are going down FROM 25% perhaps to less than 15%.
If that's the case the 'Pouter tactical voting wheels will often be better off urging Labour voters to vote tactically for the Tories ... doesn't really compute, does it?
Enjoy your lefty, love in bashing while it lasts. Labour lost the last two elections because of terrible, terrible, terrible leadership choices. Provided it doesn't make another terrible choice I fully expect the political gravity to return shortly to the centre progressives, i.e. Labour.
I haven't done any Lefty bashing. Plenty of my friends are Lefties. I've merely pointed out and chuckled at the mass hysteria online of certain elements of the Left.
I am looking forward to the Conservatives sufficiently moving the centre of gravity of political debate in this country such that next time it is fought on different, and far more sensible, ground.
Dair Depends on what powers Scotland gets and the result of EUref
But you know what is going to happen, it's all mapped out ahead.
Smith will be passed before the end of the year, it will be greeted with fanfare and the demand for more as mandated by the Scottish vote in 2015. The SNP will gain popularity for delivering Smith and gain popularity for wanting more.
Meanwhile you expect they will "struggle to defend their record" while they have maintained excellent approval ratings. You're possible Achilles heal is unlikely.
But a record that will be judged is the Tories increasingly easy to attack welfare policies and failure on the economy which is not growing at the rate expected and earnings are still 10% down on 2008.
Then in April 2016, Nicola will stand on the brand new £1bn Queensferry Crossing and cut a ribbon celebrating another major project completed on time and under budget. You think the timing of the Southern was a co-incidence? You think it waited completed for 4 months for no reason?
Do you really think Holyrood 2016 will not be another landslide?
Enjoy your lefty, love in bashing while it lasts. Labour lost the last two elections because of terrible, terrible, terrible leadership choices. Provided it doesn't make another terrible choice I fully expect the political gravity to return shortly to the centre progressives, i.e. Labour.
With the right leader (and no one can doubt Liz Kendall's ambition!) Labour can make a quick comeback. While 100 seats are needed for a majority, 50-60 would put The Tories on the opposition benches. Very do-able, particularly if the LDs make a recovery too. Remember: when Labour gain seats, so do the Lib dems (and vice versa). It has been true for decades.
Come on comrades! There is work to be done!
This election had a lot of fairly half-hearted Tory voters. The last 5 years were OK, not great, for many people. Combined with the leadership factor this put a lot of crosses in Con boxes. This election was 2001 rather than 1992, with Ed Miliband as William Hague. The difference is that Tony Blair had a 180 seat majority, not 6 seats.
Fox- very, very astute post. There is no real appetite for the Tories, but to be honest, they deserved their victory.
Last year I emailed a group of my closest friends and said I would be voting Tory at the next election because the prospect of Ed Miliband as PM could set the Labour party back a generation. When push came to shove, I came back to the fold. But I am so relieved Ed is no longer leader.
You know if the Tories had fallen short by 10 seats or so, I am convinced that Ed would have carried on. The worst of all scenarios. I really do hope Ed leaves frontline politics too
Enjoy your lefty, love in bashing while it lasts. Labour lost the last two elections because of terrible, terrible, terrible leadership choices. Provided it doesn't make another terrible choice I fully expect the political gravity to return shortly to the centre progressives, i.e. Labour.
With the right leader (and no one can doubt Liz Kendall's ambition!) Labour can make a quick comeback. While 100 seats are needed for a majority, 50-60 would put The Tories on the opposition benches. Very do-able, particularly if the LDs make a recovery too. Remember: when Labour gain seats, so do the Lib dems (and vice versa). It has been true for decades.
Come on comrades! There is work to be done!
This election had a lot of fairly half-hearted Tory voters. The last 5 years were OK, not great, for many people. Combined with the leadership factor this put a lot of crosses in Con boxes. This election was 2001 rather than 1992, with Ed Miliband as William Hague. The difference is that Tony Blair had a 180 seat majority, not 6 seats.
I can't work out whom you support or why!
If only I could achieve such enigmatic quality - sadly, people hardly ever accuse me of being a Labour supporter thesedays, despite all those predictions of Labour victory, certainly not compared to those who accuse me of being Tory.
To win the next election on the current boundaries Labour needs a swing in England & Wales just 0.9% less than the one Blair achieved in 1997. 9.4% vs 10.3%. (Assumes Labour won't win back any Scottish seats from the SNP).
Who's the Blair in the Labour leadership election?
Liz Kendall. The ambition and vision of Blair, before Tony went over to the dark side to become (in)Vader.
Btw. Well done for your spot. I think you were the first on this board to bring our attention to her.
There was a message on here about a shop that wanted Tory voters to identify themselves so he could add a 10% "tax".
I thought it was a joke. Turns out the guy (shop in Lewes) really meant his anger - but only one person had so far admitted to being a Tory after they had paid.
This must be discriminatory and illegal, surely?
Probably, until the HRA is scrapped, when it's OK.
Similar lefty garbage to that about foodbanks. You say HRA being scrapped, but you don't say HRA being scrapped and replaced by a British Bill of Human Rights. Do you really think that there won't be reasonable rights laid out in our bill?
Memo to self - start using smilies so people know what is meant to be a joke or not.
PS Nice to be classed as a leftie again. As a Lib Dem who thinks governments should balance the books, I am classed as a rabid right-winger in some circles.
< 2. On the lsit vote, on current performance, again, SLAB are going down to about a quarter of the vote - whereas the Tories have a pretty solid core vote of about a sixth. But don't forget the LDs and UKIP will be squeezing each a little, and the Tories will find it more worthwhile to vote for their own. The Greens and SSP will also be hitting Labour, and I think our PBer colleagues are right in suspecting that a SNP constituency-Green list vote will be a significant factor.
SLAB were on 26% of the List vote IN 2011.
They aren't going down to 25%. They are going down FROM 25% perhaps to less than 15%.
If that's the case the 'Pouter tactical voting wheels will often be better off urging Labour voters to vote tactically for the Tories ... doesn't really compute, does it?
I think 25% might be Labour's core vote, like 16% is tory core vote in Scotland. I don't see much more fall in the immediate future.
Enjoy your lefty, love in bashing while it lasts. Labour lost the last two elections because of terrible, terrible, terrible leadership choices. Provided it doesn't make another terrible choice I fully expect the political gravity to return shortly to the centre progressives, i.e. Labour.
With the right leader (and no one can doubt Liz Kendall's ambition!) Labour can make a quick comeback. While 100 seats are needed for a majority, 50-60 would put The Tories on the opposition benches. Very do-able, particularly if the LDs make a recovery too. Remember: when Labour gain seats, so do the Lib dems (and vice versa). It has been true for decades.
Come on comrades! There is work to be done!
This election had a lot of fairly half-hearted Tory voters. The last 5 years were OK, not great, for many people. Combined with the leadership factor this put a lot of crosses in Con boxes. This election was 2001 rather than 1992, with Ed Miliband as William Hague. The difference is that Tony Blair had a 180 seat majority, not 6 seats.
Fox- very, very astute post. There is no real appetite for the Tories, but to be honest, they deserved their victory.
Last year I emailed a group of my closest friends and said I would be voting Tory at the next election because the prospect of Ed Miliband as PM could set the Labour party back a generation. When push came to shove, I came back to the fold. But I am so relieved Ed is no longer leader.
You know if the Tories had fallen short by 10 seats or so, I am convinced that Ed would have carried on. The worst of all scenarios. I really do hope Ed leaves frontline politics too
I would love to meet you and explore your views in more detail over a pint or two sometime.
Pulpstar Not if they get more powers, especially something appraching FFA. As I set out below I would not rule out a Labour return in 2020 either, especially if the LDs also see a mini revival and there is a return of Labour tactical voting in Tory-LD marginals
Comments
I was worried when he resigned because it is such a big loss, now I can see the other parties supporters agreed w me
You might say "If I ever cheat on my wife I will tell her, and offer to leave" She might say "I still want you to stay" Do you leave anyway even though both sides would rather you didn't because of what other people might think?
Forgot to mention Farage- Ale n fag reign
"Then the idiot who praises, with enthusiastic tone,
All centuries but this, and every country but his own;"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993
Better be quick tho....
Labour are finished in Scotland and are struggling in their heartlands. By 2025 all you will have left are the champagne socialists and corrupt areas like Tower Hamlets.
And unlike Ireland, I don't think it would take 40 years of SNP dithering to get a more radical alternative break through.
Having said that, I am relatively confident the SNP won't dither, have their strategy in place and the Second Referendum will be between 2017 and 2019.
He offered his resignation and it wasn't accepted. That's how it is
Viriginia Bottomley = I'm an evil tory bigot
An oldie, admittedly and not original
1.On current performance the SNP would clean out even more of the constituency seats - coming close to 50% of seats on that alone. As antifrank pointed out for last week's election, tactical voting can only have a pretty marginal effect.
2. On the lsit vote, on current performance, again, SLAB are going down to about a quarter of the vote - whereas the Tories have a pretty solid core vote of about a sixth. But don't forget the LDs and UKIP will be squeezing each a little, and the Tories will find it more worthwhile to vote for their own. The Greens and SSP will also be hitting Labour, and I think our PBer colleagues are right in suspecting that a SNP constituency-Green list vote will be a significant factor.
In any case, we have a year of politics to get through, and it's not just the SNP who are the incumbents. So too are the Tories, in another but very real sense.
BTW I've seen a different analysis of Edinburgh South from another Pber that woudl differ from you, but myself I can't really judge.
Mind you 1/2 looks massive but unbackable.
Why did he accept the rejection of his resignation - he could have resigned anyway.
Or he could have gone back through the leadership election process to establish legitimacy.
What he did will now undermine him for a long time. Everytime he says something, other politicians won't have to reply to it - they can just say they are waiting for Farage to change his mind again.
That is Labour's problem, the SNP are visible in parliament, and it worries alot of English people.
IANAL but I guess it wouldn't.
Whatever, it has got the store a load of free publicity.
It would be interesting if you were liable for breach of contract if you paid the lower price and were subsequently found to have voted Conservative. Presumably ballot secrecy would ensure you cannot be found to have voted one way with any degree of certainty.
Come on comrades! There is work to be done!
This election had a lot of fairly half-hearted Tory voters. The last 5 years were OK, not great, for many people. Combined with the leadership factor this put a lot of crosses in Con boxes. This election was 2001 rather than 1992, with Ed Miliband as William Hague. The difference is that Tony Blair had a 180 seat majority, not 6 seats.
Not sure how useful it is to use PPP. Everything in China is cheaper than in the West, but that doesn't mean most of them can afford to go on holiday in the West or buy Western currency.
You are omitting the possibility that the SNP put up candidates in rUK in the next UKGE to further their social policies ...
All of this means negotiations. Its likely we can get to stay in and be outside of the political and monetary bit. ie just like in the EEA bit with some say.
Either way - the EU is still there and we will be in the single market. In or Out thats what European trade means
The ECHR has nothing to do with the EU.
Has no other impact despite the ridiculous claims of "uncertainty" given that all through the process the Scottish and UK economies have continued to (roughly) shadow each other.
They aren't going down to 25%. They are going down FROM 25% perhaps to less than 15%.
Use as many words as you like to try and sound reasonable and make a case otherwise, but that's the truth
45% targets for tactical voting is extremely unrealistic.
I don't think this is a BAD move. They'll still probably do just as well in the Euros. But I don't think it's a good move to win new ground at the GE in 5 years' time.
Oh well, must go and tidy up, nighty night.
You are speaking to someone who was backing them less than 2 months ago. I returned to the Conservative fold and am planning to rejoin the party later this week.
And one thing I liked a lot about the UKIP manifesto (which was the best laid out of the manifestos) was how each section was introduced by the other senior figures in the party, many of whom I even recognised, which I think reflects well on them as a party that has managed to grow the profile of some members, even if Farage remained the face and biggest asset.
I am looking forward to the Conservatives sufficiently moving the centre of gravity of political debate in this country such that next time it is fought on different, and far more sensible, ground.
Smith will be passed before the end of the year, it will be greeted with fanfare and the demand for more as mandated by the Scottish vote in 2015. The SNP will gain popularity for delivering Smith and gain popularity for wanting more.
Meanwhile you expect they will "struggle to defend their record" while they have maintained excellent approval ratings. You're possible Achilles heal is unlikely.
But a record that will be judged is the Tories increasingly easy to attack welfare policies and failure on the economy which is not growing at the rate expected and earnings are still 10% down on 2008.
Then in April 2016, Nicola will stand on the brand new £1bn Queensferry Crossing and cut a ribbon celebrating another major project completed on time and under budget. You think the timing of the Southern was a co-incidence? You think it waited completed for 4 months for no reason?
Do you really think Holyrood 2016 will not be another landslide?
Really>
Last year I emailed a group of my closest friends and said I would be voting Tory at the next election because the prospect of Ed Miliband as PM could set the Labour party back a generation. When push came to shove, I came back to the fold. But I am so relieved Ed is no longer leader.
You know if the Tories had fallen short by 10 seats or so, I am convinced that Ed would have carried on. The worst of all scenarios. I really do hope Ed leaves frontline politics too
PS Nice to be classed as a leftie again. As a Lib Dem who thinks governments should balance the books, I am classed as a rabid right-winger in some circles.