politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON moves to 9% lead in first GE2020 poll.
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Do you remember what happened when Preston North End sacked Darren Ferguson? Manchester United recalled the players they had loan there. Nothing personal, of course.AnneJGP said:Re. Stephen Kinnock MP (to whom my congratulations, this is not aimed at his circumstances, I'm merely carrying the principle to its logical conclusion).
Are there any 'conflict of interest' regulations that deal with close personal relationships with foreign government officials?
Suppose one were in high office & taking despatch boxes home to where a foreign gov. official has free access?
The very end of that line would be quite beneficial - PM of one country married to PM of another should make for very good relations between the countries (as long as the personal relationship stayed OK).0 -
I see the poster formally known as AudreyAnne in another guise was banned again on FPT.
Come on guys. She was almost pitch perfect on the predictions - this is getting silly.0 -
Dave can't win.
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Same day as Holyrood/LondonMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, isn't the Welsh Assembly before Holyrood? I think I heard Farage saying he reckoned UKIP could make advances there.
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Labour numpty on Sky calling for 'new' New Labour...0
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Just shows that the UK needs to import a continental European electoral system.isam said:
Such a shame Farage would never support such a move.
Oh he wants such an immigrant European system?
Strange.0 -
The council are a total clusterf##k down there....I have some friends who live there and more than likely voted Lucas back in, but say it is just a disaster zone.RobD said:Greens have been hammered in Brighton and Hove, down 10 seats.
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Yes UKIP got lots of second places in Welsh Labour seats and could get a lot of list seats that would displace current Cons, LDs and Plaid.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, isn't the Welsh Assembly before Holyrood? I think I heard Farage saying he reckoned UKIP could make advances there.
One quirk of the GE, is that in Ceredigion none of the 6 candidates lost their deposit.0 -
What Thursday night told the Kippers is where they're strongest - now they can target effectively.
Without this - they'd have no idea bar anecdotes.Dair said:
Just shows that the UK needs to import a continental European electoral system.isam said:
Such a shame Farage would never support such a move.
Oh he wants such an immigrant European system?
Strange.0 -
Mr. Dair, no.
It shows that UKIP failed at strategy. Again. PR is the work of Satan.
Mr. Eagles, ah. I wonder if the London count will be as slack as last time.
Miss Plato, was a bit surprised by that.0 -
It seems like several commenters just disappear without explanation, or without the ability to explain what's happened. It does not seem like the best way to moderate an online forum.Plato said:I see the poster formally known as AudreyAnne in another guise was banned again on FPT.
Come on guys. She was almost pitch perfect on the predictions - this is getting silly.0 -
Are YouGov doing a poll tonight?0
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Emily came running with me and a few club mates a few weeks ago,she looked better on TV than in her running kit,but she was very professional especially with retakes of the filming. We all had a good morning out, and free lunch on her BBC expense account.RobD said:
Yeah, she was not happy!FrancisUrquhart said:
Emily Maitlis was ready for breaking down when the coverage started.JonCisBack said:
Have they sacked Andrew Marr yet? He was virtually in tears as the Scottish results came in. Embarrassing stuff.FrancisUrquhart said:Has the official wake finished yet on BBC News?
BBC were total crap all night, I gave up like many others. SKY pretty good on a low budget!
(Apols I have no doubt this has all been discussed on here, but I was out of action most of Friday and wife ill in bed all day today so looking after 3 children!)
I had both on + PB and obviously PB was #1, but Sky was much better than BBC.
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Polls already? Thought we'd have a week or so off but like the politics junkies we are we'll soon start poring over rolling averages and sub-samples.
At least we have finally, finally seen the last of posters repeatedly saying EICIPM0 -
Panelbase, 2015's Angus Reid.FrancisUrquhart said:Early in...front page of tomorrow's Guardian...
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/unnamed1-330x440.jpg
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It's 34 Cons and 34 Labs - we don't need a poll to tell us what they'd say
The_Apocalypse said:Are YouGov doing a poll tonight?
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Plaid have never got their strategy right. Wood is personable and telegenic but she's also a republican. The SNP avoid "reasons not to vote SNP". They spent decades as Liberal Democrats and only shifted to Social Democracy in the last 10 years with the Liberal Democrats well entrenched and happy enough to capture the lefties.another_richard said:Leanne Wood and PC generally must be wondering what they've done wrong.
They see the SNP carrying all before them but in Wales they don't gain Ynys Monn from Labour and they don't gain Ceredigon from the LibDems.
Meanwhile the Conservatives make three Welsh gains and UKIP picks up disaffected LAbour supporters in the Valley and north-east Wales.
Wales also has the problem of its natural wealth having run out many decades ago and its wealth filched since then. It's economically as weak as any third world toilet and only propped up on UK money.0 -
More gazing into the results supplement...
Why did the tories up against LDs in Carshalton and Wallingotn (and also Southport) do so relatively badly?
Actually surprised the LDs held these 2 seats,. If the tory in C&W had done similarly to the tory performance in Twickenham (+7%) or even Kingston and Surbiton (+2.7%) , C&W would have gone blue. C&W tory lost >5% on 2010, Southport tory lost nearly 8% and lost by < 3 %
LDs night could easily have been even worse. Is Mark Senior about to explain?0 -
Did that ever get broadcast?jayfdee said:
Emily came running with me and a few club mates a few weeks ago,she looked better on TV than in her running kit,but she was very professional especially with retakes of the filming. We all had a good morning out, and free lunch on her BBC expense account.RobD said:
Yeah, she was not happy!FrancisUrquhart said:
Emily Maitlis was ready for breaking down when the coverage started.JonCisBack said:
Have they sacked Andrew Marr yet? He was virtually in tears as the Scottish results came in. Embarrassing stuff.FrancisUrquhart said:Has the official wake finished yet on BBC News?
BBC were total crap all night, I gave up like many others. SKY pretty good on a low budget!
(Apols I have no doubt this has all been discussed on here, but I was out of action most of Friday and wife ill in bed all day today so looking after 3 children!)
I had both on + PB and obviously PB was #1, but Sky was much better than BBC.
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You are such a little European that you can only think in terms of that bloc. PR is used in many countries around the world including Commonwealth countries. And yes Farage supports the move to PR.Dair said:
Just shows that the UK needs to import a continental European electoral system.isam said:
Such a shame Farage would never support such a move.
Oh he wants such an immigrant European system?
Strange.0 -
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It would be nice to see some markets. Lib Dem extinction market, Orkney and Zetland Constituencies, maybe opposition markets and Green range.TheScreamingEagles said:To be honest, I want to see more Scotland polling, Holyrood next year is the next major polling event/alongside the London Mayoral election.
But I don't see why the bookies create early political markets - isn't that where all the killings happen? Don't really get that from a business point of view. I doubt all the deluded Kippers covered the losses on SLAB and Scottish Constituency bets.0 -
This isn't the Survation they held back from publishing on Election Day?
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When are we expecting crossover?0
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Mr. kle4, New Labour Strikes Back.0
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Newer LabourRodCrosby said:Labour numpty on Sky calling for 'new' New Labour...
New Labour with a vengeance
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Fizzy water which tastes like shit, makes you go a little mad then gives you a headache, which is no good for you? Sounds about right...MonikerDiCanio said:
(having said that I had two cans on friday to keep me going)0 -
Cable was not standing in Southport...JonCisBack said:More gazing into the results supplement...
Why did the tories up against LDs in Carshalton and Wallingotn (and also Southport) do so relatively badly?
Actually surprised the LDs held these 2 seats,. If the tory in C&W had done similarly to the tory performance in Twickenham (+7%) or even Kingston and Surbiton (+2.7%) , C&W would have gone blue. C&W tory lost >5% on 2010, Southport tory lost nearly 8% and lost by < 3 %
LDs night could easily have been even worse. Is Mark Senior about to explain?0 -
Anyone know if Paddy has eaten his hat yet?
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Like AveryLP. Surely we'll have a return of the Yellow Boxes and the glorious George Osborne (most popular heir-to-a-baronetcy in the realm) avatar.JEO said:
It seems like several commenters just disappear without explanation, or without the ability to explain what's happened. It does not seem like the best way to moderate an online forum.Plato said:I see the poster formally known as AudreyAnne in another guise was banned again on FPT.
Come on guys. She was almost pitch perfect on the predictions - this is getting silly.0 -
LOL!!Plato said:It's 34 Cons and 34 Labs - we don't need a poll to tell us what they'd say
The_Apocalypse said:Are YouGov doing a poll tonight?
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Their on-message 1997 intake:Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, New Labour Strikes Back.
Attack of the clones...0 -
Yes, they've pretty much tried to ban cars from the city, with the result that it takes an hour to drive the last couple of miles on the A23 almost any time of day so people don't make the trip any more.. Also they had loads of issues with bin collections. Or more accurately a lack of bin collections.FrancisUrquhart said:
The council are a total clusterf##k down there....I have some friends who live there and more than likely voted Lucas back in, but say it is just a disaster zone.RobD said:Greens have been hammered in Brighton and Hove, down 10 seats.
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New Labour 2: Triangulate harder...JonCisBack said:
Newer LabourRodCrosby said:Labour numpty on Sky calling for 'new' New Labour...
New Labour with a vengeance0 -
Bet the house on #SexySocialismTheScreamingEagles said:To be honest, I want to see more Scotland polling, Holyrood next year is the next major polling event/alongside the London Mayoral election.
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Yes we were on Newsnight,about a month ago, she wanted an interview in Farron country, about 3 hours of filming condensed down to about 1 minute.FrancisUrquhart said:
Did that ever get broadcast?jayfdee said:
Emily came running with me and a few club mates a few weeks ago,she looked better on TV than in her running kit,but she was very professional especially with retakes of the filming. We all had a good morning out, and free lunch on her BBC expense account.RobD said:
Yeah, she was not happy!FrancisUrquhart said:
Emily Maitlis was ready for breaking down when the coverage started.JonCisBack said:
Have they sacked Andrew Marr yet? He was virtually in tears as the Scottish results came in. Embarrassing stuff.FrancisUrquhart said:Has the official wake finished yet on BBC News?
BBC were total crap all night, I gave up like many others. SKY pretty good on a low budget!
(Apols I have no doubt this has all been discussed on here, but I was out of action most of Friday and wife ill in bed all day today so looking after 3 children!)
I had both on + PB and obviously PB was #1, but Sky was much better than BBC.
She has undoubted stamina,doing an all nighter and still looking good, however she had a stupid whippet dog running with us,which in this part of the world is not good.
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YouGov if you want to. The Lady's NOT for gov'ing!The_Apocalypse said:Are YouGov doing a poll tonight?
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Mr. C, but will the next leader be A New Dope?0
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How very ungallant of you to say so.jayfdee said:
Emily came running with me and a few club mates a few weeks ago,she looked better on TV than in her running kit,but she was very professional especially with retakes of the filming. We all had a good morning out, and free lunch on her BBC expense account.RobD said:
Yeah, she was not happy!FrancisUrquhart said:
Emily Maitlis was ready for breaking down when the coverage started.JonCisBack said:
Have they sacked Andrew Marr yet? He was virtually in tears as the Scottish results came in. Embarrassing stuff.FrancisUrquhart said:Has the official wake finished yet on BBC News?
BBC were total crap all night, I gave up like many others. SKY pretty good on a low budget!
(Apols I have no doubt this has all been discussed on here, but I was out of action most of Friday and wife ill in bed all day today so looking after 3 children!)
I had both on + PB and obviously PB was #1, but Sky was much better than BBC.
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Why has the BBC news main item since lunchtime been "Sturgeon bursting with pride"?
1) Is this news?
2) Has nothing else happened in the world?
Amusing more than annoying but still0 -
Xtreme Labour - a UNITE offshoot to the youth0
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Actually, thinking about it Callum and antifrank could probably afford some private Scotland polling right now0
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Nah, that's YouGov!acf2310 said:
Panelbase, 2015's Angus Reid.FrancisUrquhart said:Early in...front page of tomorrow's Guardian...
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/unnamed1-330x440.jpg0 -
They're in denial. I'd quite like to see the BBC wound up, but actually it's more amusing to watch them pretend that they are politically neutral.JonCisBack said:Why has the BBC news main item since lunchtime been "Sturgeon bursting with pride"?
1) Is this news?
2) Has nothing else happened in the world?
Amusing more than annoying but still0 -
SURVATION
Only a sub sample but this has the SNP at 62 per cent. I shall repeat that 62 per cent!0 -
New Labour MAXkle4 said:Xtreme Labour - a UNITE offshoot to the youth
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If she is still bursting after all this time, that may well be news, sounds very uncomfortable.JonCisBack said:Why has the BBC news main item since lunchtime been "Sturgeon bursting with pride"?
1) Is this news?
2) Has nothing else happened in the world?
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UKIP did gain Thanet council. I'm assuming they'll be more sensible than their Green 'counterparts' in Brighton!0
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Has anyone had the Green Deposits bet settled yet on Betfair?0
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It's like a parallel world post 7th May re polling - after thousands of posts and hundreds of threads - we're laughing with gallows humour at them all now.
Dearie me, I can't recall a bigger upset in credibility for a sector as this.
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Leanne Wood is a republican and to the left of Labour, so often she is fishing in the same pool. Ynys Mon Council is composed mainly of two sets of independents who are unpredictable and the council was put into administration by the Welsh Government.another_richard said:Leanne Wood and PC generally must be wondering what they've done wrong.
They see the SNP carrying all before them but in Wales they don't gain Ynys Monn from Labour and they don't gain Ceredigon from the LibDems.
Meanwhile the Conservatives make three Welsh gains and UKIP picks up disaffected LAbour supporters in the Valley and north-east Wales.
The PC candidate for Ceredigion, had a mixed history and as student had likened English immigrants to Wales as similar to Nazis and refused to apologise for that remark. In the street he was totally unable to explain how he/PC would achieve their policies set out in his literature. PC knew that they were losing as they had canvassers out on election day.
The LD MP, Mark Williams, has been an extremely good constituency MP and has built up a strong incumbency. He is a very quiet man, a bit of a rebel and lives with his family in the constituency - Ceredigion is very conservative (small c) and likes the status quo and being fussed over by their MP>0 -
My recollection is that poster was rude to OGH. Anyone doing that on someone's blog should expect to be banned.Plato said:I see the poster formally known as AudreyAnne in another guise was banned again on FPT.
Come on guys. She was almost pitch perfect on the predictions - this is getting silly.0 -
I just sincerely hope that neither YouGov nor another company does a daily online poll again this time.
Then again, YouGov and Peter Kellner must be laughing all the way to the bank after getting the contract from The Sun0 -
It's Farage and the senior UKIP politicians who are now calling for the UK to import an Immigrant European Electoral System.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dair, no.
It shows that UKIP failed at strategy. Again. PR is the work of Satan.
Mr. Eagles, ah. I wonder if the London count will be as slack as last time.
Miss Plato, was a bit surprised by that.
Go figure.0 -
Mr. Alistair, Mr. Calum's probably got his own island and/or castle now after that tipping performance.0
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I imagine when the shock of the result finally wears off, they will be crapping themselves at the thought of what's about to happen to their budget.tlg86 said:
They're in denial. I'd quite like to see the BBC wound up, but actually it's more amusing to watch them pretend that they are politically neutral.JonCisBack said:Why has the BBC news main item since lunchtime been "Sturgeon bursting with pride"?
1) Is this news?
2) Has nothing else happened in the world?
Amusing more than annoying but still
How popular would a 50% cut in the telly tax be, it's one of the most regressive taxes out there?0 -
Dair Farage backed AV in 2011 and has said he would consider PR0
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Mr. Dair, Farage is entitled to be completely wrong. It's a free society, despite what might deface war memorials.0
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That got the direction of travel right at least though I believe.RobD said:
1992?Plato said:It's like a parallel world post 7th May re polling - after thousands of posts and hundreds of threads - we're laughing with gallows humour at them all now.
Dearie me, I can't recall a bigger upset in credibility for a sector as this.0 -
On a more serious note, Survation do seem to be trying really hard to create a reputation as the pollster than was secretly right.
That makes me doubt their credibility far more than the pollsters who immediately said 'we got it wrong and we'll look at why that was, and how we can put it right.' This new poll that Survation have come out with is an online poll -- so it's not even using the fancy new methodology.
We'll all be very suspicious of all the polls, but I think there's a good case for taking anything that comes out of Survation with especial scepticism.0 -
Apologies I misread and exagerated the SNP total. They only have 60.2 per cent on Survation sub sample not 62 per cent!
SNP 60.2% : Lab 12.6% : Con 12.2% : LD 3.9% : UKIP 3.7% : Grn 1.6%0 -
CON might be further ahead in reality than this poll you know. The opposition is all in a state right now. The shy Tories may not even be gone.0
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Y'know wot? Those initials should be carved in stone.FrancisUrquhart said:What would Basil think....EICIPM?
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And #AngrySalmond - very often very funny indeed. And with a good charitable aim too.Alistair said:
Bet the house on #SexySocialismTheScreamingEagles said:To be honest, I want to see more Scotland polling, Holyrood next year is the next major polling event/alongside the London Mayoral election.
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Why on earth has she been banned again?Plato said:I see the poster formally known as AudreyAnne in another guise was banned again on FPT.
Come on guys. She was almost pitch perfect on the predictions - this is getting silly.
She promised last thread not to be rude again - and made some reasonable criticisms of Mike's approach in a measured way. Some of which I even agree with.
Mike: you can't just go on banning people for no reason. If you need assistance moderating, then I'm sure that lots of people will volunteer.
But the fact that Audreyanne got support from both @SeanT and @malcolmg suggests that you may just have, possibly, got this one wrong.0 -
He's back.
Tony Blair tells Labour: return to the centre ground to win again
Former PM says party has to be ‘for ambition and aspiration as well as compassion and care’
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/09/tony-blair-labour-return-centre-ground-general-election-defeat0 -
Yeah, that whole blog post about how they were secretly right all along, but didn't want to publish it. Give me a break.acf2310 said:On a more serious note, Survation do seem to be trying really hard to create a reputation as the pollster than was secretly right.
That makes me doubt their credibility far more than the pollsters who immediately said 'we got it wrong and we'll look at why that was, and how we can put it right.' This new poll that Survation have come out with is an online poll -- so it's not even using the fancy new methodology.
We'll all be very suspicious of all the polls, but I think there's a good case for taking anything that comes out of Survation with especial scepticism.0 -
Blueberry In an EU referendum the Out campaign will be far more vocal and populist as Yes was, both will play the patriot card, In voters will be more silent as No voters were0
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Internet Poll - add 6 to the Tories.0
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Good Evening PBers
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.0 -
I hope the old Jacobite has a relaxing period of convalescence, and that his ARSE be maintained in all its glory until he returns.JackW said:Good Evening PBers
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.0 -
I know they don't want to be mean, but how are people like Blair praising Miliband's campaigning as brilliant whilst similarly trashing his message and policy focus?
"Ed was brilliant, simply brilliant...except for everything he said, which was wrong. But what a courageous and brilliant campaigner"0 -
Best wishes Jack.JackW said:Good Evening PBers
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.0 -
You wouldn't have thought that if the LDs held one seat in London it would be Carshalton & Wallington. Also that Ceredigion now has one of the biggest majorities of any LD seat.0
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Financier I would agree whoever ends up Labour leader will want to have a good team behind him, Chuka interestingly was a member of political think tank Compass, he is not averse to political thought0
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Best Wishes, Jack.JackW said:Good Evening PBers
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
Hurry back.0 -
I don't think the Survation 2010 vote proportions are what happened in the election. I think there was 10%+ Lab -> Con switchers and 15% Lab -> UKIP. I imagine Labour actually had the 30% of 2010 Lib Dems that the polls reported.0
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This is the UK. Scotland is the story.JonCisBack said:Why has the BBC news main item since lunchtime been "Sturgeon bursting with pride"?
1) Is this news?
2) Has nothing else happened in the world?
Amusing more than annoying but still0 -
Very best wishes to you Jack, I have learnt a lot from you and I am truly grateful.JackW said:Good Evening PBers
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.0 -
Mr. W, I'm sorry to hear that, but all things must come to an end*, and you did a damned sight better than the professionals. All hail the ARSE of JackW!
*Hopefully temporary, in this case.
Mr. Charles, if that's the case, I hope the ban can be temporary.0 -
Sky: Chris Leslie to be new shadow chancellor0
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Best wishes JackW.0
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Yep you were right - awful result for the BBC. The license fee may well be scrapped... it's exactly the sort of thing that middle class lefties love and actually punishes very tight up working class.Sandpit said:
I imagine when the shock of the result finally wears off, they will be crapping themselves at the thought of what's about to happen to their budget.tlg86 said:
They're in denial. I'd quite like to see the BBC wound up, but actually it's more amusing to watch them pretend that they are politically neutral.JonCisBack said:Why has the BBC news main item since lunchtime been "Sturgeon bursting with pride"?
1) Is this news?
2) Has nothing else happened in the world?
Amusing more than annoying but still
How popular would a 50% cut in the telly tax be, it's one of the most regressive taxes out there?
The best the BBC can hope for is for it to go up with inflation. Could be a forlorn hope though.0 -
Please accept my best wishes. [Edited to remove unintentional possibly offensive joke.]JackW said:Good Evening PBers
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.0 -
All the best wishes JackW, you utter legend.JackW said:Good Evening PBers
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.0 -
Amazing; Sky News says Labour hasn't got the exact procedure in place yet for their new leadership election rules. Haven't they had five years to do that?0
