Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
Get well soon Jack! We missed you and your ARSE last summer.
Such a valuable organ does occasionally need a spot of refurbishment.
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
Very best wishes Jack. Few would have thought you underestimated the Conservatives!
Your ARSE was slapped about and spat upon by those disbelievers in its contents.
I do look forward to the day when we can examine your ARSE once again in the run up to 2020.
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
Wishing you all the best for a speedy recovery.
Bad timing though, I heard a Tory majority government will sell off the NHS to the highest bidder and a million nurses will be replaced by fatcat bankers who will be tasked with slaughtering all first born
It shows that UKIP failed at strategy. Again. PR is the work of Satan.
Mr. Eagles, ah. I wonder if the London count will be as slack as last time.
Miss Plato, was a bit surprised by that.
It's Farage and the senior UKIP politicians who are now calling for the UK to import an Immigrant European Electoral System.
Go figure.
Like I said you are an insular little bigot who can't see beyond the borders of a backwards looking protectionist little bloc. PR was first proposed by the Revolutionary Americans in the 18th century and STV was invented by an Englishman. The first list system was also invented by an American.
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
All the best Jack You can leave triumphant and vindicated. Your ARSE has blown the opposition from the pitch.
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
Best wishes Jack. PB will be a lesser place without you and I hope your health does improve enough for you to return at some point in the future (and of course for you to enjoy many more years of being right. :-) )
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
On a more serious note, Survation do seem to be trying really hard to create a reputation as the pollster than was secretly right.
That makes me doubt their credibility far more than the pollsters who immediately said 'we got it wrong and we'll look at why that was, and how we can put it right.' This new poll that Survation have come out with is an online poll -- so it's not even using the fancy new methodology.
We'll all be very suspicious of all the polls, but I think there's a good case for taking anything that comes out of Survation with especial scepticism.
Yeah, that whole blog post about how they were secretly right all along, but didn't want to publish it. Give me a break.
Publish and be damned, as they say in the press.
It seems that all the pollsters were so scared of being wrong they all came up with a dead heat cop-out together. The academic post mortems on the polling will be interesting to read and keep a few postgrad students in work for a year or two!
Leanne Wood and PC generally must be wondering what they've done wrong.
They see the SNP carrying all before them but in Wales they don't gain Ynys Monn from Labour and they don't gain Ceredigon from the LibDems.
Meanwhile the Conservatives make three Welsh gains and UKIP picks up disaffected LAbour supporters in the Valley and north-east Wales.
Leanne Wood is a republican and to the left of Labour, so often she is fishing in the same pool. Ynys Mon Council is composed mainly of two sets of independents who are unpredictable and the council was put into administration by the Welsh Government.
The PC candidate for Ceredigion, had a mixed history and as student had likened English immigrants to Wales as similar to Nazis and refused to apologise for that remark. In the street he was totally unable to explain how he/PC would achieve their policies set out in his literature. PC knew that they were losing as they had canvassers out on election day.
The LD MP, Mark Williams, has been an extremely good constituency MP and has built up a strong incumbency. He is a very quiet man, a bit of a rebel and lives with his family in the constituency - Ceredigion is very conservative (small c) and likes the status quo and being fussed over by their MP>
Plaid should be getting members of their party - like Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond to help with their strategy. They're getting way too much basic stuff wrong and to be honest all the really need to do is ask and the SNP would send them a team (probably paid for by the SNP) to sort out their strategic planning.
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
You wouldn't have thought that if the LDs held one seat in London it would be Carshalton & Wallington. Also that Ceredigion now has one of the biggest majorities of any LD seat.
Not sure if you saw my post downthread but you of all people are best placed to answer! Tory in C&W did relatively crap, could /should have won (?)
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
Why did the tories up against LDs in Carshalton and Wallingotn (and also Southport) do so relatively badly?
Actually surprised the LDs held these 2 seats,. If the tory in C&W had done similarly to the tory performance in Twickenham (+7%) or even Kingston and Surbiton (+2.7%) , C&W would have gone blue. C&W tory lost >5% on 2010, Southport tory lost nearly 8% and lost by < 3 %
LDs night could easily have been even worse. Is Mark Senior about to explain?
Cable was not standing in Southport...
I can explain a bit about C&W. Sutton and Cheam got 40/40 status which C&W didn't. Also the Tories were up against the most efficient LD machine in the country with Sutton. 45 LD cllrs and 2 LD MPs had turned it into a LD one party state. 300 LD deliverers in their network and lit going out every month. With Burstow taken out now the watertight control they have had has now been broken. There is a council byelection in June so we can judge a little more then. Remember Sutton is the only tier 1 LibDem held authority in the country.
FPT I don't see either Stella Creasey or Chuka Umunna as leadership material. John Cruddas excepted, no one who's based in London has a clue how to win over Middle England and Wales.
Frank Field would be amazing, but I understand he's hated - hardly surprising for someone who talks sense in the Labour party.
Oh, and apropos of nothing, I think Diane Abbot would make a great Speaker of the HOC.
A good rule of thumb for winning an election now is to run against London, like running against Washington.
I think you may be right. If one good thing comes from this result I hope it's that some of the centre-left luvvies realise that their cultural imperialism won't work. The thing is new labour was amazingly London centric and won 3 elections. Perhaps a Blairite approach winning key marginals and keeping the fingers crossed that the heartlands don't find an alternative might work. Otherwise blue labour is probably the way to go.
I quite liked the Dan Jarvis piece in the New Statesman. Seems like an MP who isn't afraid of the public and actually listens to them rather than what advisers tell him the focus groups are saying. What does he believe? That's less clear at the moment.
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
Hope it all goes well. I think people would be amused and surprised if they knew who you were!
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
All my very best for a speedy recovery. I've only been here a few weeks but will already miss your contributions.
Leanne Wood and PC generally must be wondering what they've done wrong.
They see the SNP carrying all before them but in Wales they don't gain Ynys Monn from Labour and they don't gain Ceredigon from the LibDems.
Meanwhile the Conservatives make three Welsh gains and UKIP picks up disaffected LAbour supporters in the Valley and north-east Wales.
Leanne Wood is a republican and to the left of Labour, so often she is fishing in the same pool. Ynys Mon Council is composed mainly of two sets of independents who are unpredictable and the council was put into administration by the Welsh Government.
The PC candidate for Ceredigion, had a mixed history and as student had likened English immigrants to Wales as similar to Nazis and refused to apologise for that remark. In the street he was totally unable to explain how he/PC would achieve their policies set out in his literature. PC knew that they were losing as they had canvassers out on election day.
The LD MP, Mark Williams, has been an extremely good constituency MP and has built up a strong incumbency. He is a very quiet man, a bit of a rebel and lives with his family in the constituency - Ceredigion is very conservative (small c) and likes the status quo and being fussed over by their MP>
Plaid should be getting members of their party - like Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond to help with their strategy. They're getting way too much basic stuff wrong and to be honest all the really need to do is ask and the SNP would send them a team (probably paid for by the SNP) to sort out their strategic planning.
Does it involve a sense of humour bypass and a crash course in balancing several chips on their shoulders, plus in-depth training for saturating social media with hyper-sensitive victim culture themed postings?
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
Jack, we all hope you will be back,you have been steadfast in your predictions,and proved right. Best of luck, and best wishes.
In spite of our superior ground operation and the tremendous efforts of members and candidates, Thursday was a devastating result for Labour. Ed Miliband had put his finger on one of the biggest issues of our time: the need for prosperity to extend beyond the top 1%. He had grown in stature over the campaign. The Tories were seen as out of touch and for the few. Yet they ended up with a majority. We won 100 fewer seats than them: our worst election performance in almost three decades.
Ed was too hard on himself in assuming all the responsibility for the scale of our defeat; all of us on the front line are implicated. So, as the dust settles, on the result it’s time to confront things which, in retrospect, we should have done years ago. As a political family, we are in shock, but must channel our disappointment into the work of rebuilding and renewal. That starts with having an honest look in the mirror and asking : why did we lose?
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
Best wishes
Yes... best wishes Jack.W GLYSP (Good Luck You Smart Punter)
Why has the BBC news main item since lunchtime been "Sturgeon bursting with pride"?
1) Is this news?
2) Has nothing else happened in the world?
Amusing more than annoying but still
They're in denial. I'd quite like to see the BBC wound up, but actually it's more amusing to watch them pretend that they are politically neutral.
I imagine when the shock of the result finally wears off, they will be crapping themselves at the thought of what's about to happen to their budget.
How popular would a 50% cut in the telly tax be, it's one of the most regressive taxes out there?
Yep you were right - awful result for the BBC. The license fee may well be scrapped... it's exactly the sort of thing that middle class lefties love and actually punishes very tight up working class.
The best the BBC can hope for is for it to go up with inflation. Could be a forlorn hope though.
I would not under-estimate the Value of the BBC to the remaining attachment Scotland has to the Union (not BBC Scotland but the BBC as a concept).
I believe the first post I made online about the Independence debate was how I would GREATLY miss both the BBC and Team GB (technically there is no reason why either could not continue post Independence).
Why did the tories up against LDs in Carshalton and Wallingotn (and also Southport) do so relatively badly?
Actually surprised the LDs held these 2 seats,. If the tory in C&W had done similarly to the tory performance in Twickenham (+7%) or even Kingston and Surbiton (+2.7%) , C&W would have gone blue. C&W tory lost >5% on 2010, Southport tory lost nearly 8% and lost by < 3 %
LDs night could easily have been even worse. Is Mark Senior about to explain?
Cable was not standing in Southport...
I can explain a bit about C&W. Sutton and Cheam got 40/40 status which C&W didn't. Also the Tories were up against the most efficient LD machine in the country with Sutton. 45 LD cllrs and 2 LD MPs had turned it into a LD one party state. 300 LD deliverers in their network and lit going out every month. With Burstow taken out now the watertight control they have had has now been broken. There is a council byelection in June so we can judge a little more then. Remember Sutton is the only tier 1 LibDem held authority in the country.
Why did the tories up against LDs in Carshalton and Wallingotn (and also Southport) do so relatively badly?
Actually surprised the LDs held these 2 seats,. If the tory in C&W had done similarly to the tory performance in Twickenham (+7%) or even Kingston and Surbiton (+2.7%) , C&W would have gone blue. C&W tory lost >5% on 2010, Southport tory lost nearly 8% and lost by < 3 %
LDs night could easily have been even worse. Is Mark Senior about to explain?
Michael Gove reportedly to be the new Justice Secretary.
Eesh. But glad Grayling is gone.
Hmmmm....I wonder how many lawyers he can piss off in the next 5 years?
Fewer than Grayling managed.
Sure? Grayling is an idiot, who I get the feeling accidentally pisses people off by just not understanding. Gove on the other hand, does have a canny knack for it, like he really enjoys having a good dust up. You really felt it was like Christmas had come early for him when the blob kicked off.
This is the confession of a political journalist. I get paid to know about politics, to explain politics and yes, to predict politics. On this general election, I failed. I got it wrong. I didn’t see this result coming.
The same is true of a lot of people, but that’s neither excuse nor justification. My job is to tell the people who read me things that will leave them better-informed about the subject at hand. And I didn’t do that job as well as I could have done.
That makes me sad, but happy too. I hope you’ll allow me a minute to explain some of that, and to apologise.
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
I wish you all the best and hope that you get well soon. A PB devoid of your ARSE will be a worse PB.
Very best wishes Jack ..... without any doubt you have been one of the most enjoyable and enduring posters on PB.com as well as one of its great strengths throughout the years. I and many others will miss you enormously.
In spite of our superior ground operation and the tremendous efforts of members and candidates, Thursday was a devastating result for Labour. Ed Miliband had put his finger on one of the biggest issues of our time: the need for prosperity to extend beyond the top 1%. He had grown in stature over the campaign. The Tories were seen as out of touch and for the few. Yet they ended up with a majority. We won 100 fewer seats than them: our worst election performance in almost three decades.
Ed was too hard on himself in assuming all the responsibility for the scale of our defeat; all of us on the front line are implicated. So, as the dust settles, on the result it’s time to confront things which, in retrospect, we should have done years ago. As a political family, we are in shock, but must channel our disappointment into the work of rebuilding and renewal. That starts with having an honest look in the mirror and asking : why did we lose?
Chuka is still delusional: "The Tories were seen as out of touch and for the few." So why did more people for for them. Until people like Chuka get real and not believe their own propaganda, they will continue to fail.
Just listened to a labour blogger on Sky who said their activists were all fired up by Ed and that labour do need to undertake a review and find policies that are new but still fire up the activists. I would imagine that for labour to become electable they need to move to the centre ground and aspiration and no doubt that would not fire their activists. Are we possibly witnessing the end of labour as a party
Something for the people demonstrating in Whitehall to consider:
In Great Britain the combined Conservative and UKIP share was 50.66%, 15,188,670 votes out of a total of 29,980,107.
One thing that hasn't been discussed much in the media is that turnout only increased by 1%. It looks like a lot of potential Labour voters didn't bother to vote.
If the SNP repeat their success and can perhaps get over 50% in some of the regional votes SLAB, SLID and SCUP could get squeezed for regional seats by the SNP, Greens and UKIP.
Were it not necessary for them to stake out their corners for the leadership battle ahead, I'd advise the senior labour figures to keep their mouths shut for quite some time - if they seem to good at laying out why Labour lost and the focus was wrong this soon, it makes them look like they knew it was going to be a disaster and did nothing about it.
But of course they do need to get out there, can't just have non-leadership hopefuls conducting the post mortem in public.
Something for the people demonstrating in Whitehall to consider:
In Great Britain the combined Conservative and UKIP share was 50.66%, 15,188,670 votes out of a total of 29,980,107.
One thing that hasn't been discussed much in the media is that turnout only increased by 1%. It looks like a lot of potential Labour voters didn't bother to vote.
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
Jack, I wish you all the best, and I hope we get to see a lot more of your ARSE's wisdom in the near future.
My best wishes to you and those around you.
Sir, I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability."
Survation say Conservatives have a 9% lead, do they? Given that this is a company that have admitted not publishing a poll because it didn't give the result they thought it should, is there any reason to take a blind bit of notice of anything they say? For all we know they could have another poll showing Labour in front but don't want to publish it because "it doesn't feel right".
Why did the tories up against LDs in Carshalton and Wallingotn (and also Southport) do so relatively badly?
Actually surprised the LDs held these 2 seats,. If the tory in C&W had done similarly to the tory performance in Twickenham (+7%) or even Kingston and Surbiton (+2.7%) , C&W would have gone blue. C&W tory lost >5% on 2010, Southport tory lost nearly 8% and lost by < 3 %
LDs night could easily have been even worse. Is Mark Senior about to explain?
Cable was not standing in Southport...
I can explain a bit about C&W. Sutton and Cheam got 40/40 status which C&W didn't. Also the Tories were up against the most efficient LD machine in the country with Sutton. 45 LD cllrs and 2 LD MPs had turned it into a LD one party state. 300 LD deliverers in their network and lit going out every month. With Burstow taken out now the watertight control they have had has now been broken. There is a council byelection in June so we can judge a little more then. Remember Sutton is the only tier 1 LibDem held authority in the country.
Why did the tories up against LDs in Carshalton and Wallingotn (and also Southport) do so relatively badly?
Actually surprised the LDs held these 2 seats,. If the tory in C&W had done similarly to the tory performance in Twickenham (+7%) or even Kingston and Surbiton (+2.7%) , C&W would have gone blue. C&W tory lost >5% on 2010, Southport tory lost nearly 8% and lost by < 3 %
LDs night could easily have been even worse. Is Mark Senior about to explain?
Cable was not standing in Southport...
Um...but LDs lost S&C?
Sorry if I am misunderstanding...
Will have to google 40:40 status!
Sorry if I didn't explain. In the London borough of Sutton their are 2 constituencies. Sutton &Cheam and Carhalton and Wallington. S&C was given 40/40 status by CCHQ. That status was for the 40 most marginal Tory seats they needed to retain and the 40 seats that they were targeting. These seats got huge support and additional resource. C&W was a standalone seat which had to look after itself. That became crucial. Sutton&Cheam was visited by every single cabinet minister including Osbourne 3 times,May twice and Borisisited 4 times during the camp campaign. Reigate and Banstead adopted a third of the S&C constituency and sent over 40 people on polling day itself even though Crispin Blunt had an election to win himself. So I suppose what I am saying is that the victory was a real hard fight in what I decribe as the LibDems Fuehrerbunker.
It shows that UKIP failed at strategy. Again. PR is the work of Satan.
Mr. Eagles, ah. I wonder if the London count will be as slack as last time.
Miss Plato, was a bit surprised by that.
It's Farage and the senior UKIP politicians who are now calling for the UK to import an Immigrant European Electoral System.
Go figure.
Like I said you are an insular little bigot who can't see beyond the borders of a backwards looking protectionist little bloc. PR was first proposed by the Revolutionary Americans in the 18th century and STV was invented by an Englishman. The first list system was also invented by an American.
So not a European System at all.
PR is a continental system. FPTP or its spinoff AV is an English speaking standard in the UK, Canada, USA and Australia.
Though the notion that the Tory majority would or should reform the system is laughable. There is literally no reason to drop our historical system.
BigG Tory activists were far more fired up by Hague and Howard than Cameron, Labour activists were more fired up by Brown and Miliband than Blair, when picking PM candidates perhaps sensible to find out who fires up activists and pick their opponent
In spite of our superior ground operation and the tremendous efforts of members and candidates, Thursday was a devastating result for Labour. Ed Miliband had put his finger on one of the biggest issues of our time: the need for prosperity to extend beyond the top 1%. He had grown in stature over the campaign. The Tories were seen as out of touch and for the few. Yet they ended up with a majority. We won 100 fewer seats than them: our worst election performance in almost three decades.
Ed was too hard on himself in assuming all the responsibility for the scale of our defeat; all of us on the front line are implicated. So, as the dust settles, on the result it’s time to confront things which, in retrospect, we should have done years ago. As a political family, we are in shock, but must channel our disappointment into the work of rebuilding and renewal. That starts with having an honest look in the mirror and asking : why did we lose?
Chuka is still delusional: "The Tories were seen as out of touch and for the few." So why did more people for for them. Until people like Chuka get real and not believe their own propaganda, they will continue to fail.
Chuka's right. The point he is making is that in spite of that the Tories still won. Looking at what people elsewhere are saying I'm surprised how little enthusiasm there seems to be for the Tories. Just a general Labour will f*** it up, can't trust Miliband and Balls, lesser of two evils sort of thing.
It is interesting that LAB have realised that aspiration and hope for the future is vital for each inhabitant of the UK. In Wales aspiration is not encouraged nor on the menu for most politicians - they prefer to feed at the trough and plead poverty.
Am just watching the VE70th concert on Horseguards. If those people 75 years ago did not have aspiration, hope, resolve and self-determination, may of us would not be here today.
Financier All polls showed voters believed the Tories represented the wealthy elite best but they could also won the economy better than Mliband and Balls
Only a sub sample but this has the SNP at 62 per cent. I shall repeat that 62 per cent!
In fairness it had 2015 recall at 54% SNP so in reality it's probably a high 50s outcome if weighted more accurately on a Scotland basis.
That's got to be evidence that people fib to pollsters...surely they can't have forgotten who they voted for already!
No, it just means the sample wasn't weighted for Scotland. They may be trying a new technique (as SNP specific weighting would be normal, or the other party's VI was just so poor in Scotland the UK wide weighting left an SNP overflow which is not good for Unionists.
Scotland is changed. And every vote changes it more. Always in favour of SNP.
Sorry I misread the tables yet again. The final figure was SNP 66 PER CENT , TORY 13.6, LABOUR 11.6 LIBERAL 2.7.
Only a sub sample but the way of the world and of Scotland.
Well politically this is an amazing result for the SNP. Anyone who can work out that 331 is more than half of 650 and is on the centre or centre-left in Scotland will be SNP or Scottish Green now. That's a pool of about 75% of the voters in Scotland*. Conservatives probably slightly understated (The tacticals etc will all head back now), certainly ahead of Labour I reckon.
*Scottish Labour will most likely be overwhelmingly made of the remainder that can't do this maths. There is simply no reason for them any more.
Comments
Ever.
And the best to Lady Jack W too.
Take Care. Px
Such a valuable organ does occasionally need a spot of refurbishment.
Your ARSE was slapped about and spat upon by those disbelievers in its contents.
I do look forward to the day when we can examine your ARSE once again in the run up to 2020.
No Green candidate almost definitely cost Con Chester and Wirral West.
Lab made 2 net gains from Con (10 gains, 8 losses). Without those two seats it would have been zero net gains.
Bad timing though, I heard a Tory majority government will sell off the NHS to the highest bidder and a million nurses will be replaced by fatcat bankers who will be tasked with slaughtering all first born
or something
So not a European System at all.
And if the polls have 55% SNP for FPTP then to get at least 20% Green vote on the list (which for the party means not actually saying that out loud).
You can leave triumphant and vindicated.
Your ARSE has blown the opposition from the pitch.
#LEGEND
All the very best and many thanks for your fabulous predictions in both 2005 & 2010.
Amazing how you put all those pollsters to shame.
Have any candidates declared yet? Or are we still at the rumours stage?
I hear Yvette Cooper has now got a househusband, so childcare no longer an issue.
BTW am I the only one to find her quite attractive in a slightly androgenous way?
It seems that all the pollsters were so scared of being wrong they all came up with a dead heat cop-out together. The academic post mortems on the polling will be interesting to read and keep a few postgrad students in work for a year or two!
Eesh. But glad Grayling is gone.
Same in Southport..?
Sutton and Cheam got 40/40 status which C&W didn't. Also the Tories were up against the most efficient LD machine in the country with Sutton. 45 LD cllrs and 2 LD MPs had turned it into a LD one party state. 300 LD deliverers in their network and lit going out every month.
With Burstow taken out now the watertight control they have had has now been broken. There is a council byelection in June so we can judge a little more then.
Remember Sutton is the only tier 1 LibDem held authority in the country.
I quite liked the Dan Jarvis piece in the New Statesman. Seems like an MP who isn't afraid of the public and actually listens to them rather than what advisers tell him the focus groups are saying. What does he believe? That's less clear at the moment.
'Labour numpty on Sky calling for 'new' New Labour...'
Labour Lite ?
I know it's a long shot. But I wouldn't dismiss it as impossible.
@sarahwollaston: These 'protests' are a sickening insult to everyone who fought & died for our democracy http://t.co/yV5g9obd38
best wishes
Best of luck, and best wishes.
GLYSP (Good Luck You Smart Punter)
I believe the first post I made online about the Independence debate was how I would GREATLY miss both the BBC and Team GB (technically there is no reason why either could not continue post Independence).
Sorry if I am misunderstanding...
Will have to google 40:40 status!
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/liam-byrne-apology-letter-there-is-no-money-labour-general-election
Every blessing to you and your lady wife
I actually would laugh if that was there poll. They'll be desperate to have any Con lead.
LOL, that's brilliant Sunil
In Great Britain the combined Conservative and UKIP share was 50.66%, 15,188,670 votes out of a total of 29,980,107.
One thing that hasn't been discussed much in the media is that turnout only increased by 1%. It looks like a lot of potential Labour voters didn't bother to vote.
Sorry I misread the tables yet again. The final figure was SNP 66 PER CENT , TORY 13.6, LABOUR 11.6 LIBERAL 2.7.
Only a sub sample but the way of the world and of Scotland.
http://www.scotlandvotes.com/holyrood
If the SNP repeat their success and can perhaps get over 50% in some of the regional votes SLAB, SLID and SCUP could get squeezed for regional seats by the SNP, Greens and UKIP.
'Hope it all goes well. I think people would be amused and surprised if they knew who you were!'
Maybe, but if you read some of his authoritative comments from time to time on certain issues outside politics it's not too surprising.
But of course they do need to get out there, can't just have non-leadership hopefuls conducting the post mortem in public.
do keep up :-)
I wish you all the best, and I hope we get to see a lot more of your ARSE's wisdom in the near future.
My best wishes to you and those around you.
Sir, I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability."
S&C was given 40/40 status by CCHQ. That status was for the 40 most marginal Tory seats they needed to retain and the 40 seats that they were targeting. These seats got huge support and additional resource. C&W was a standalone seat which had to look after itself. That became crucial. Sutton&Cheam was visited by every single cabinet minister including Osbourne 3 times,May twice and Borisisited 4 times during the camp campaign.
Reigate and Banstead adopted a third of the S&C constituency and sent over 40 people on polling day itself even though Crispin Blunt had an election to win himself. So I suppose what I am saying is that the victory was a real hard fight in what I decribe as the LibDems Fuehrerbunker.
@charleshymas: #sundaytimes Blairite Liz Kendall becomes first to throw her hat into the ring of Labour leadership race
Though the notion that the Tory majority would or should reform the system is laughable. There is literally no reason to drop our historical system.
Would these be the boundaries which the tories will resurrect? Or will the process be done again with newer electoral roll data?
Chuka's right. The point he is making is that in spite of that the Tories still won. Looking at what people elsewhere are saying I'm surprised how little enthusiasm there seems to be for the Tories. Just a general Labour will f*** it up, can't trust Miliband and Balls, lesser of two evils sort of thing.
Am just watching the VE70th concert on Horseguards. If those people 75 years ago did not have aspiration, hope, resolve and self-determination, may of us would not be here today.
Scotland is changed. And every vote changes it more. Always in favour of SNP.
*Scottish Labour will most likely be overwhelmingly made of the remainder that can't do this maths. There is simply no reason for them any more.