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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON moves to 9% lead in first GE2020 poll.

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  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    HYUFD said:

    Financier All polls showed voters believed the Tories represented the wealthy elite best but they could also won the economy better than Mliband and Balls

    After the performance of the polls, are you relying on them for evidence - you would be laughed out of court.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Mrs Bercow has been having an affair with his Cousin
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911


    Sorry if I didn't explain. In the London borough of Sutton their are 2 constituencies. Sutton &Cheam and Carhalton and Wallington.
    S&C was given 40/40 status by CCHQ. That status was for the 40 most marginal Tory seats they needed to retain and the 40 seats that they were targeting. These seats got huge support and additional resource. C&W was a standalone seat which had to look after itself. That became crucial. Sutton&Cheam was visited by every single cabinet minister including Osbourne 3 times,May twice and Borisisited 4 times during the camp campaign.
    Reigate and Banstead adopted a third of the S&C constituency and sent over 40 people on polling day itself even though Crispin Blunt had an election to win himself. So I suppose what I am saying is that the victory was a real hard fight in what I decribe as the LibDems Fuehrerbunker.
    OK thanks, I understand. Saaaarf o' the river...

    Having never lived in a marginal constituency I have no experience of these shenanigans! Never been canvassed, generally we get 1 leaflet from each party if we're lucky

    Although I thought the general consensus was that the campaign makes only very little difference? Maybe GOTV is important
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Get well soon JackW. Never nice to hear when someone is ill, so all the best.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    JackW said:

    Good Evening PBers

    Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.

    That time has come.

    Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.

    In the recent parlance of PB :

    JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.

    God speed sir.


    Best ARSE on PB.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    kle4 said:

    Were it not necessary for them to stake out their corners for the leadership battle ahead, I'd advise the senior labour figures to keep their mouths shut for quite some time - if they seem to good at laying out why Labour lost and the focus was wrong this soon, it makes them look like they knew it was going to be a disaster and did nothing about it.

    But of course they do need to get out there, can't just have non-leadership hopefuls conducting the post mortem in public.

    It is all a bit..

    7 May: Ed's a great leader with great policies

    9 MayL Ed was crap, and had rubbish policies

    Uh?

    Doesn't say much for their judgement really..
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Mrs Bercow has been having an affair with his Cousin

    ?????!!!!

    Really?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    scotslass said:

    Apologies I misread and exagerated the SNP total. They only have 60.2 per cent on Survation sub sample not 62 per cent!


    SNP 60.2% : Lab 12.6% : Con 12.2% : LD 3.9% : UKIP 3.7% : Grn 1.6%

    I was promised a Tory surge :(
    Mundell would still hang on. Like a effing limpet that man.

    The Tories had best hope he doesn't decide to retire - your guys ran him close, and they won't want to risk losing whatever incumbency bonus he has.
    A Labout vote of 7718 on the 7th May 2015 says that in 2020 (if there are still Scottish elections for Westminster) that Mundell is gone.
    Hey, it wasn't me who described the man as a limpet, you may well be right, one should think it would be hard for the Tories to move forwards or Labour go backwards in 2020, but who can say, this election was weird enough.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    @JackW - Best of luck, we'll miss your ARSE around here!
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    Mrs Bercow has been having an affair with his Cousin

    Really?!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978

    Mrs Bercow has been having an affair with his Cousin

    ?????!!!!

    Really?
    Yes. See the front page of tomorrow's Mail on Sunday
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    In England the Con + UKIP figure was 55%. Still 51% with Scotland and Wales as I said earlier.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Mrs Bercow has been having an affair with his Cousin

    Ooh blimey - that was kept under wraps.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036

    Mrs Bercow has been having an affair with his Cousin

    WHAT??
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    Mrs Bercow has been having an affair with his Cousin

    Rather interesting timing a few days after the election.. someone had that saved up
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    kle4 said:

    Were it not necessary for them to stake out their corners for the leadership battle ahead, I'd advise the senior labour figures to keep their mouths shut for quite some time - if they seem to good at laying out why Labour lost and the focus was wrong this soon, it makes them look like they knew it was going to be a disaster and did nothing about it.

    But of course they do need to get out there, can't just have non-leadership hopefuls conducting the post mortem in public.

    It is all a bit..

    7 May: Ed's a great leader with great policies

    9 MayL Ed was crap, and had rubbish policies

    Uh?

    Doesn't say much for their judgement really..
    Actually its sillier than that. Pundits and backbenchers and grandees may be saying that, but so far some of them and the senior team are saying

    7 May: Ed's a great leader with great policies

    9 May: Ed was a great leader with crap policies/great policies but needed more great ones
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Best wishes JackW.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    Financier said:

    Plato said:

    And Chuka speaks theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/labours-first-step-to-regaining-power-is-to-recognise-the-mistakes-we-made

    In spite of our superior ground operation and the tremendous efforts of members and candidates, Thursday was a devastating result for Labour. Ed Miliband had put his finger on one of the biggest issues of our time: the need for prosperity to extend beyond the top 1%. He had grown in stature over the campaign. The Tories were seen as out of touch and for the few. Yet they ended up with a majority. We won 100 fewer seats than them: our worst election performance in almost three decades.

    Ed was too hard on himself in assuming all the responsibility for the scale of our defeat; all of us on the front line are implicated. So, as the dust settles, on the result it’s time to confront things which, in retrospect, we should have done years ago. As a political family, we are in shock, but must channel our disappointment into the work of rebuilding and renewal. That starts with having an honest look in the mirror and asking : why did we lose?
    Chuka is still delusional: "The Tories were seen as out of touch and for the few." So why did more people for for them. Until people like Chuka get real and not believe their own propaganda, they will continue to fail.

    Has Chuka ever been outside of inner London in his life ?

    Well perhaps to a Labour Conference and I bet he thinks those are better now that they're not being held in Blackpool.

    He's certainly never been outside his inner London Labour echo chamber in his life.
  • heseltineheseltine Posts: 50

    Mrs Bercow has been having an affair with his Cousin

    So the destruction of the Bercows begins....there will be more to come
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Size matters after all?

    Mrs Bercow has been having an affair with his Cousin

    ?????!!!!

    Really?
    Yes. See the front page of tomorrow's Mail on Sunday
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Message for Mr. Eagles.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited May 2015

    Mrs Bercow has been having an affair with his Cousin

    ?????!!!!

    Really?
    Yes. See the front page of tomorrow's Mail on Sunday
    Wow - I've just seen it. I feel sorry for Bercow (John).
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Well this is the start of a clear campaign to ditch Bercow.
  • JEO said:

    Plato said:

    I see the poster formally known as AudreyAnne in another guise was banned again on FPT.

    Come on guys. She was almost pitch perfect on the predictions - this is getting silly.

    It seems like several commenters just disappear without explanation, or without the ability to explain what's happened. It does not seem like the best way to moderate an online forum.
    I disappeared for a long time, but it was due to a change of job and circumstances

    i doubt anyone missed me :)

    Although I did try and post something useful about Thanet S during the election-by the way UKIP did very well in the Council seats!!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Mrs Bercow has been having an affair with his Cousin

    Really - I thought she was still seeing the fitness instructor?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    Liam Byrne: ‘I’m afraid there is no money.’ The letter I will regret for ever

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/liam-byrne-apology-letter-there-is-no-money-labour-general-election

    Would have been more helpful BEFORE the vote!
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    scotslass said:

    Oops

    Sorry I misread the tables yet again. The final figure was SNP 66 PER CENT , TORY 13.6, LABOUR 11.6 LIBERAL 2.7.

    Only a sub sample but the way of the world and of Scotland.

    Why would anyone in Scotland vote Labour again unless you are a die hard Loyalist? And Loyalism has been dying off for years.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    He's back.

    Tony Blair tells Labour: return to the centre ground to win again

    Former PM says party has to be ‘for ambition and aspiration as well as compassion and care’

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/09/tony-blair-labour-return-centre-ground-general-election-defeat

    No acknowledgement that New Labour and/or Blairism's neglect of its traditional supporters, on the assumption the latter had nowhere else to go, was a factor in the decline in turnout and the rise of Ukip.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Haven't they just. I wonder what else is in the locked filing cabinet behind a toilet door marked Beware of the Leopard?

    Mrs Bercow has been having an affair with his Cousin

    Rather interesting timing a few days after the election.. someone had that saved up
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Bercow can be an arse, but I hear he's been a good speaker for backbenchers at least, so if this story is true one hopes personal troubles would not lead to him not fighting for the position again.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,081
    Evening All.
    First, best of luck to Jack W - hope we'll be hearing from you again before too long.

    Secondly, has anyone come across a downladable spreadsheet of general election results? I seem to recall the Guardian produced one last tie, but they don't seem to have done so again. London.gov has one for just Greater London, but I'd quite like to find one for the whole country.

    Thirdly, seventh in the prediction competition! Woohoo!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Things Can Only Get Better - 80s stylee :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OO9LloDSJo
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    He's back.

    Tony Blair tells Labour: return to the centre ground to win again

    Former PM says party has to be ‘for ambition and aspiration as well as compassion and care’

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/09/tony-blair-labour-return-centre-ground-general-election-defeat

    No acknowledgement that New Labour and/or Blairism's neglect of its traditional supporters, on the assumption the latter had nowhere else to go, was a factor in the decline in turnout and the rise of Ukip.
    THIS! It's why I've said going back to Blairism isn't the answer for the Labour party. It was also a factor in the SNP rise, too.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978

    Mrs Bercow has been having an affair with his Cousin

    ?????!!!!

    Really?
    Yes. See the front page of tomorrow's Mail on Sunday
    Wow - I've just seen it. I feel sorry for Bercow (John).
    I really should stop looking down on John Bercow for a few days.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited May 2015
    @JONCisBack

    'Has anyone got a link to the proposed 600 constituencies which were ditched? The boundary commissions link in Wikipedia is dead...'

    I think the new boundaries were only blocked for the 2015 election and will automatically kick in for 2020.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    Oops

    Sorry I misread the tables yet again. The final figure was SNP 66 PER CENT , TORY 13.6, LABOUR 11.6 LIBERAL 2.7.

    Only a sub sample but the way of the world and of Scotland.

    Why would anyone in Scotland vote Labour again unless you are a die hard Loyalist? And Loyalism has been dying off for years.
    With a similar view toward the LDs I imagine, do you imagine the future for Scotland is for the SNP vs the loyalist rump of the Tories to be the way of things, rather than SNP vs SLAB?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Blimey. Did not see that headline coming.

    I am not a Bercow fan (as I may have occasionally mentioned) but I do feel sorry for him over this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Well this is the start of a clear campaign to ditch Bercow.

    Technically the vote to change the rules on election of a Speaker was probably the start.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    RobD said:

    Liam Byrne: ‘I’m afraid there is no money.’ The letter I will regret for ever

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/liam-byrne-apology-letter-there-is-no-money-labour-general-election

    Would have been more helpful BEFORE the vote!
    That's a letter he could have done with writing about 5 years ago !
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    kle4 said:

    Well this is the start of a clear campaign to ditch Bercow.

    Technically the vote to change the rules on election of a Speaker was probably the start.
    yeah but now there's a tory majority, it's open season to remove him.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    RobD said:

    Liam Byrne: ‘I’m afraid there is no money.’ The letter I will regret for ever

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/liam-byrne-apology-letter-there-is-no-money-labour-general-election

    Would have been more helpful BEFORE the vote!
    He should have come out with that five years ago, would have been forgotten about by now. We all said at the time it would find its way into Cameron's pocket during the GE campaign, and so it came to pass.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Mrs Bercow has been having an affair with his Cousin

    ?????!!!!

    Really?
    Yes. See the front page of tomorrow's Mail on Sunday
    Wow - I've just seen it. I feel sorry for Bercow (John).
    I really should stop looking down on John Bercow for a few days.
    :smiley:

    I'd probably be looking up at Bercow - when height was being given out I was on the toilet (I'm 5'0).
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    9% ahead it doesnt matter because its all different in the marginals. And the superior spatan warriors on the ground will GOTV.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015

    Mrs Bercow has been having an affair with his Cousin

    Eww. Convenient timing though, almost as if it was designed to weaken the chances of his re-election ;). Someone had this saved up.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    calum said:

    To be honest, I want to see more Scotland polling, Holyrood next year is the next major polling event/alongside the London Mayoral election.

    We also need someone to develop a seat calculator which works at a regional level, the best one I could find is :

    http://www.scotlandvotes.com/holyrood

    If the SNP repeat their success and can perhaps get over 50% in some of the regional votes SLAB, SLID and SCUP could get squeezed for regional seats by the SNP, Greens and UKIP.
    16% List gives Green a very, very good chance of Official Opposition.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/597139187066916864

    So is he looking for the sympathy vote to stay on, or a personal excuse to step down..?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    kle4 said:

    Well this is the start of a clear campaign to ditch Bercow.

    Technically the vote to change the rules on election of a Speaker was probably the start.
    yeah but now there's a tory majority, it's open season to remove him.
    He needs to rally those backbenchers again. This distraction is hardly what he needs. Although that he clearly despises Cameron is not great for the position really.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Things Can Only Get Better - 80s stylee :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OO9LloDSJo

    Yay, 80s videos again. Reminds me of what PB was like a few years ago.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Right - I'm off to bed with my sunburn - it's started to peel.

    Ewww.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Were it not necessary for them to stake out their corners for the leadership battle ahead, I'd advise the senior labour figures to keep their mouths shut for quite some time - if they seem to good at laying out why Labour lost and the focus was wrong this soon, it makes them look like they knew it was going to be a disaster and did nothing about it.

    But of course they do need to get out there, can't just have non-leadership hopefuls conducting the post mortem in public.

    It is all a bit..

    7 May: Ed's a great leader with great policies

    9 MayL Ed was crap, and had rubbish policies

    Uh?

    Doesn't say much for their judgement really..
    Actually its sillier than that. Pundits and backbenchers and grandees may be saying that, but so far some of them and the senior team are saying

    7 May: Ed's a great leader with great policies

    9 May: Ed was a great leader with crap policies/great policies but needed more great ones
    8 May: VICTORY OVER ED day (VE Day) :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    Wonder how long MoS have been sitting on that story?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Does anyone have the

    1) GB Wide share of the vote

    2) How well did Labour do in Cornwall in terms of increase in share of the vote

    Ta
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    JackW said:

    Good Evening PBers

    Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.

    That time has come.

    Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.

    In the recent parlance of PB :

    JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.

    My very best wishes Jack and hope to see you back again soon.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Dr. Prasannan, surely 8 May = Martin Day?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Blimey. Did not see that headline coming.

    I am not a Bercow fan (as I may have occasionally mentioned) but I do feel sorry for him over this.

    Agreed. No one should be humiliated like that.

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    scotslass said:

    Oops

    Sorry I misread the tables yet again. The final figure was SNP 66 PER CENT , TORY 13.6, LABOUR 11.6 LIBERAL 2.7.

    Only a sub sample but the way of the world and of Scotland.

    Well politically this is an amazing result for the SNP. Anyone who can work out that 331 is more than half of 650 and is on the centre or centre-left in Scotland will be SNP or Scottish Green now. That's a pool of about 75% of the voters in Scotland*. Conservatives probably slightly understated (The tacticals etc will all head back now), certainly ahead of Labour I reckon.

    *Scottish Labour will most likely be overwhelmingly made of the remainder that can't do this maths. There is simply no reason for them any more.
    SLAB will be hardcore Rangers Loyalists who don't abstain because Jim Murphy is a Catholic.

    So you were right.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Does anyone have the

    1) GB Wide share of the vote

    2) How well did Labour do in Cornwall in terms of increase in share of the vote

    Ta

    GB shares:

    Con: 37.78%
    Lab: 31.18%
    UKIP: 12.88%
    LD: 8.06%
    SNP: 4.85%
    Greens: 3.84%
    PC: 0.61%
    Others: 0.80%
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone have the

    1) GB Wide share of the vote

    2) How well did Labour do in Cornwall in terms of increase in share of the vote

    Ta

    GB shares:

    Con: 37.78%
    Lab: 31.18%
    UKIP: 12.88%
    LD: 8.06%
    SNP: 4.85%
    Greens: 3.84%
    PC: 0.61%
    Others: 0.80%
    Thank you.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    scotslass said:

    Apologies I misread and exagerated the SNP total. They only have 60.2 per cent on Survation sub sample not 62 per cent!


    SNP 60.2% : Lab 12.6% : Con 12.2% : LD 3.9% : UKIP 3.7% : Grn 1.6%

    I was promised a Tory surge :(
    Mundell would still hang on. Like a effing limpet that man.

    The Tories had best hope he doesn't decide to retire - your guys ran him close, and they won't want to risk losing whatever incumbency bonus he has.
    A Labout vote of 7718 on the 7th May 2015 says that in 2020 (if there are still Scottish elections for Westminster) that Mundell is gone.
    Hey, it wasn't me who described the man as a limpet, you may well be right, one should think it would be hard for the Tories to move forwards or Labour go backwards in 2020, but who can say, this election was weird enough.
    I think that SLAB might have got in early with the "vote for us to get out the Tories with Lib Dem style "Winning Here" leaflets and broken bar charts. That probably actually secured some of their vote who went SNP everywhere and ONLY because it was a Tory holding the seat.

    Effectively Mundell survives because 7718 anti Tories were persuaded that Labour were the best chance to get rid of him and weren't engaged enough to know this was bullshit. There's no Loyalist vote there, no hardcore NI style proddy Unionists. Mundell is toast.

    IF and it remains a huge IF there is a 2020 Westminster election in Scotland.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    @JackW

    Best wishes, and I hope everything goes well. I think it is safe to say that PB will miss you.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Oh god yes. Some of us are on at 50/1

    @charleshymas: #sundaytimes Blairite Liz Kendall becomes first to throw her hat into the ring of Labour leadership race

    Tipped by me first, I believe ;-)

    Told you she is ambitious, now got a headstart on other candidates and particularly the female ones.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    AndyJS said:

    In England the Con + UKIP figure was 55%. Still 51% with Scotland and Wales as I said earlier.

    People keep repeating this to give the 37% Government some legitimacy. I don't think it is remotely true. Kippers took as many (if not more) from Labour as from Tory and I don't think there were any significant number of Kippers voting for UKIP to get continued Austerity.

    It's a completely bogus argument.


  • Plaid should be getting members of their party - like Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond to help with their strategy. They're getting way too much basic stuff wrong and to be honest all the really need to do is ask and the SNP would send them a team (probably paid for by the SNP) to sort out their strategic planning.

    DAIR
    Thats not a bad idea-would also help negate the idea that SNP are only interested in Scotland and couldn't care less about anyone else.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Financier said:

    Plato said:

    And Chuka speaks theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/labours-first-step-to-regaining-power-is-to-recognise-the-mistakes-we-made

    In spite of our superior ground operation and the tremendous efforts of members and candidates, Thursday was a devastating result for Labour. Ed Miliband had put his finger on one of the biggest issues of our time: the need for prosperity to extend beyond the top 1%. He had grown in stature over the campaign. The Tories were seen as out of touch and for the few. Yet they ended up with a majority. We won 100 fewer seats than them: our worst election performance in almost three decades.

    Ed was too hard on himself in assuming all the responsibility for the scale of our defeat; all of us on the front line are implicated. So, as the dust settles, on the result it’s time to confront things which, in retrospect, we should have done years ago. As a political family, we are in shock, but must channel our disappointment into the work of rebuilding and renewal. That starts with having an honest look in the mirror and asking : why did we lose?
    Chuka is still delusional: "The Tories were seen as out of touch and for the few." So why did more people for for them. Until people like Chuka get real and not believe their own propaganda, they will continue to fail.
    Chuka's right. The point he is making is that in spite of that the Tories still won. Looking at what people elsewhere are saying I'm surprised how little enthusiasm there seems to be for the Tories. Just a general Labour will f*** it up, can't trust Miliband and Balls, lesser of two evils sort of thing.

    Chuka is partly right. The Tories are seen as being for the very rich. But, Labour are seen as well-meaning but incompetent.
  • What public interest is there in the story on the Mail on Sunday? I doubt Mrs Bercow has been preaching about the sanctity of marriage or anything that could justify this sort of story. The editor and publisher may end up facing an action for breach of confidence.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Every best wish, JackW.

    I hope that you will be back when Labour appoints its new leader, to tell us that

    XXXXX XXXXXXX Will Never Be Prime Minister!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    While many of them will have links to the older MPs, I sometimes wonder how the new intake figure out who to back in these leadership races; they'll know the broad factions, but maybe won't have the knowledge to judge how things are swinging and which way to jump.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    In England the Con + UKIP figure was 55%. Still 51% with Scotland and Wales as I said earlier.

    People keep repeating this to give the 37% Government some legitimacy. I don't think it is remotely true. Kippers took as many (if not more) from Labour as from Tory and I don't think there were any significant number of Kippers voting for UKIP to get continued Austerity.

    It's a completely bogus argument.
    Yes. A few years ago you could've argued that 80% of Ukip's support was from or like Tories, but now it's more like 60%.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Tory, might it not be that the Welsh just don't feel the same way as the Scots?

    The Welsh Assembly barely passed, and there's no realistic prospect of Welsh independence.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911

    Does anyone have the

    1) GB Wide share of the vote

    2) How well did Labour do in Cornwall in terms of increase in share of the vote

    Ta

    UK

    Party %
    CON 36.9
    LAB 30.4
    UKIP 12.6
    LD 7.9
    SNP 4.7
    GRN 3.8

    (from BBC and UK only and looks like not NI - more decimal places probably available elsewhere...)

    Cornwall

    2015: % for Labour and change on 2010

    St Ives: 9.34 (+1.17)
    Cam and Red: 24.96 (+8.61)
    Truro & Fal: 15.16 (+5.53)
    St Aust & Newq: 10.23 (+3.06)
    N Corn: 5.43 (+0.08)
    SE Corn: 9.29 (+2.22)

    Mixed bag, all low but decently up?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Why is Sally Bercow trending?

    *Innocent Face*
  • Dair said:

    People keep repeating this to give the 37% Government some legitimacy. I don't think it is remotely true. Kippers took as many (if not more) from Labour as from Tory and I don't think there were any significant number of Kippers voting for UKIP to get continued Austerity.

    It's a completely bogus argument.

    We live in a representative democracy. People vote for parliamentary representatives, not for political parties. Whoever can command a majority of the votes of those representatives in the House of Commons is ipso facto legitimate. End of story.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Why has the BBC news main item since lunchtime been "Sturgeon bursting with pride"?

    1) Is this news?

    2) Has nothing else happened in the world?

    Amusing more than annoying but still

    They're in denial. I'd quite like to see the BBC wound up, but actually it's more amusing to watch them pretend that they are politically neutral.
    I imagine when the shock of the result finally wears off, they will be crapping themselves at the thought of what's about to happen to their budget.

    How popular would a 50% cut in the telly tax be, it's one of the most regressive taxes out there?
    It would be very popular. Axing our favourite programmes would be less popular. And btw, the BBC is run by Tories.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    Why is Sally Bercow trending?

    *Innocent Face*

    I hope this has the hashtag #InnocentFace
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited May 2015
    @JackW

    Speedy recovery.

    There were times I doubted your ARSE.

    But in the end EMWNBPM.

    So IHYRSAPAOTS*.

    * I hope you recover soon and post again on this site.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    In England the Con + UKIP figure was 55%. Still 51% with Scotland and Wales as I said earlier.

    People keep repeating this to give the 37% Government some legitimacy. I don't think it is remotely true. Kippers took as many (if not more) from Labour as from Tory and I don't think there were any significant number of Kippers voting for UKIP to get continued Austerity.

    It's a completely bogus argument.
    I'd actually agree. I don't question the legitimacy of this government as while I don't like FPTP to do so would question the legitimacy of most of our recent past governments, but we cannot just add the Tory+UKIP scores together; people doing that with Lab+LD+the rest as some sort of automatic anti-Tory alliance really annoyed me in 2010, and there will be Kippers, former Tory or former Labour, who will feel the same. People for for parties for a variety of reasons, and even if the party position was one which aligns with the Tories on this, it cannot be assumed all their voters would back that.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    Oops

    Sorry I misread the tables yet again. The final figure was SNP 66 PER CENT , TORY 13.6, LABOUR 11.6 LIBERAL 2.7.

    Only a sub sample but the way of the world and of Scotland.

    Why would anyone in Scotland vote Labour again unless you are a die hard Loyalist? And Loyalism has been dying off for years.
    With a similar view toward the LDs I imagine, do you imagine the future for Scotland is for the SNP vs the loyalist rump of the Tories to be the way of things, rather than SNP vs SLAB?
    The Tories aren't a West Central Scotland party. Tories are Unionists not Loyalists (in the Scottish sectarian sense).

    Even in West Central Scotland, the Tory vote isn't a sectarian vote, at most you have the 90 minute bigots like Murdo Fraser (which whom I have sung The Sash at Scottish Tory Conference) but it is very much a politically Unionist and not sectarian Loyalist party,.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978

    Does anyone have the

    1) GB Wide share of the vote

    2) How well did Labour do in Cornwall in terms of increase in share of the vote

    Ta

    UK

    Party %
    CON 36.9
    LAB 30.4
    UKIP 12.6
    LD 7.9
    SNP 4.7
    GRN 3.8

    (from BBC and UK only and looks like not NI - more decimal places probably available elsewhere...)

    Cornwall

    2015: % for Labour and change on 2010

    St Ives: 9.34 (+1.17)
    Cam and Red: 24.96 (+8.61)
    Truro & Fal: 15.16 (+5.53)
    St Aust & Newq: 10.23 (+3.06)
    N Corn: 5.43 (+0.08)
    SE Corn: 9.29 (+2.22)

    Mixed bag, all low but decently up?
    Cheers, I find those Cornwall results odd.

    We were told that Labour were massively outworking the Tories in Cornwall.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    TSE: I'm working on the Cornwall question. Whoops — someone's already done that.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Sean_F said:

    Blimey. Did not see that headline coming.

    I am not a Bercow fan (as I may have occasionally mentioned) but I do feel sorry for him over this.

    Agreed. No one should be humiliated like that.

    Whats this about Bercow is this election gonna get better ? Has sanctimonious dwarf been caught on somthing.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    kle4 said:

    Bercow can be an arse, but I hear he's been a good speaker for backbenchers at least, so if this story is true one hopes personal troubles would not lead to him not fighting for the position again.

    I think there will be motivation for every single opposition MP to vote for Bercow and at least a few Tory's to rebel. It might be the vote that sets the tone for a narrow majority parliament.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036

    Why is Sally Bercow trending?

    *Innocent Face*

    LOL!!!!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Holbornlolz: So basically, outside Downing Street, after losing the election, the left is reduced to this http://t.co/dsFqAGklpi
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    O/T and apols if this has been posted before, but interesting, and relevant to the Camborne and Redruth figures I just posted I think (Camborne has a School of Mines which is basically a Mining University)

    Labour seats are almost all in former mining areas.

    http://i.imgur.com/hvJ6DuE.jpg
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Looks like Chuka is going for the comfort zone vote. Smart move in terms of internal Labour politics. Ridiculous, though, if he ever wants to be PM.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Sky News: PM to announce Michael #Gove as Justice Secretary, Chris #Grayling becomes Leader of the Commons and Nicky #Morgan remains as Education Sec
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    Oops

    Sorry I misread the tables yet again. The final figure was SNP 66 PER CENT , TORY 13.6, LABOUR 11.6 LIBERAL 2.7.

    Only a sub sample but the way of the world and of Scotland.

    Why would anyone in Scotland vote Labour again unless you are a die hard Loyalist? And Loyalism has been dying off for years.
    With a similar view toward the LDs I imagine, do you imagine the future for Scotland is for the SNP vs the loyalist rump of the Tories to be the way of things, rather than SNP vs SLAB?
    The Tories aren't a West Central Scotland party. Tories are Unionists not Loyalists (in the Scottish sectarian sense).

    Even in West Central Scotland, the Tory vote isn't a sectarian vote, at most you have the 90 minute bigots like Murdo Fraser (which whom I have sung The Sash at Scottish Tory Conference) but it is very much a politically Unionist and not sectarian Loyalist party,.
    I see. And do you see the future fight as being one between principally the SNP and Tories, rather than SNP and SLAB, or are the Tories essentially stuck on what they've got? Depending on how soon independence occurs, obviously.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    On topic so that VI means an actual result of CON 45% LAB 29% based on 2015 accuracy levels.
  • AndyJS said:

    Something for the people demonstrating in Whitehall to consider:

    In Great Britain the combined Conservative and UKIP share was 50.66%, 15,188,670 votes out of a total of 29,980,107.

    One thing that hasn't been discussed much in the media is that turnout only increased by 1%. It looks like a lot of potential Labour voters didn't bother to vote.

    Was there a strike at the postal vote printing works ?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @TSE

    'We were told that Labour were massively outworking the Tories in Cornwall.'

    By IOS.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911

    Does anyone have the

    1) GB Wide share of the vote

    2) How well did Labour do in Cornwall in terms of increase in share of the vote

    Ta

    UK

    Party %
    CON 36.9
    LAB 30.4
    UKIP 12.6
    LD 7.9
    SNP 4.7
    GRN 3.8

    (from BBC and UK only and looks like not NI - more decimal places probably available elsewhere...)

    Cornwall

    2015: % for Labour and change on 2010

    St Ives: 9.34 (+1.17)
    Cam and Red: 24.96 (+8.61)
    Truro & Fal: 15.16 (+5.53)
    St Aust & Newq: 10.23 (+3.06)
    N Corn: 5.43 (+0.08)
    SE Corn: 9.29 (+2.22)

    Mixed bag, all low but decently up?
    Cheers, I find those Cornwall results odd.

    We were told that Labour were massively outworking the Tories in Cornwall.
    In absolute terms 3 of those are up a lot. Labour were a comical 6th in Cornwall in the 2009 Euros, behind Mebyon Kernow. I remember a SeanT special on that!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Regarding Bercow, a Speaker is supposed to have the support of the whole house. A speaker that only has the support of one side of the house should resign and if Bercow had any self respect or respect for his own office he'd realise that was lost and resign.

    Otherwise if it's acceptable to have a Speaker that only one side respects what is to prevent every majority government installing a ridiculously biased pro-government speaker and keeping them there on 51% of the vote?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Gove is back?

    I reiterate my earlier comments, Clarke needs to be brought back - he only needs a few years to break the record for time in government.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    JackW said:

    Good Evening PBers

    Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.

    That time has come.

    Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.

    In the recent parlance of PB :

    JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.

    Jack best wishes for a speedy recovery, we await the return of your wit and wisdom

    Mr Brooke.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    Plaid Cymru is first and foremost associated with the Welsh language and it's preservation. They have tried to break out of rural north and west Wales into the Labour heartlands, Wood being the obvious person to do that as a Valleys girl, but there are very few Welsh speakers there. She is a Welsh language 'learner' a big deal for the Party, the idea of them having a non-Welsh speaking leader is remote.

    New Labour did what they could to get Alun Michael as First Minister and were obviously horrified by 'red' Rhodri Morgan. I wonder if they feel the same way now given what's happened in Scotland. They had their fright from Plaid in the first Assembly elections in 1999 but obviously learnt from it.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    AndyJS said:

    TSE: I'm working on the Cornwall question. Whoops — someone's already done that.

    Copied from The Times...hope it's right...
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108



    Plaid should be getting members of their party - like Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond to help with their strategy. They're getting way too much basic stuff wrong and to be honest all the really need to do is ask and the SNP would send them a team (probably paid for by the SNP) to sort out their strategic planning.

    DAIR
    Thats not a bad idea-would also help negate the idea that SNP are only interested in Scotland and couldn't care less about anyone else.

    I never said they would do so publicly.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    In England the Con + UKIP figure was 55%. Still 51% with Scotland and Wales as I said earlier.

    People keep repeating this to give the 37% Government some legitimacy. I don't think it is remotely true. Kippers took as many (if not more) from Labour as from Tory and I don't think there were any significant number of Kippers voting for UKIP to get continued Austerity.

    It's a completely bogus argument.
    If we had PR, the Conservatives would have about 240 seats, and UKIP about 90. That's a right wing majority.
This discussion has been closed.