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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON moves to 9% lead in first GE2020 poll.

SystemSystem Posts: 11,698
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON moves to 9% lead in first GE2020 poll.

Survation have CON 9% ahead in first poll of GE2020 pic.twitter.com/Cdk86uAUwV

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    This is a wind up right? Who the f##k pays for this 2 days after a GE?

    Also...Have just spat my drink out over my keyboard....

    https://twitter.com/mlilleker/status/597099261982076928
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    LOL
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    JazJaz Posts: 21
    Is the methodology the same? Or different weightings now being applied?
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    So maybe 16% ahead in reality?
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    I demand a recount - was it weighted for shy Labour?
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Cameron needs to call another election!!
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    Does anybody know of an Excel spreadsheet with the results by constituency?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    Applying my shy Tory/Lazy Labour filter this is in fact a Tory lead of 15%
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    No need to be a shy Tory now...
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Based on the last few weeks the real lead is ? Answers to the BPC before they do the review. :)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    Data tables here.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Final-MoS-Post-election-poll-1c0d2h7.pdf
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Is this the one for 2015 that they supressed? Allegedly because they did not believe it.....
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2015
    Err, is this a very late poll for GE2015, or a very early poll for GE2020?
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Anymore leads like this and suddenly the polling industry will be a highly rate one, on PB.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    felix said:

    I demand a recount - was it weighted for shy Labour?

    Shy labour? Ever met one?

    Me either
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Enjoy PB Tories - that's your last good threadheader till 2020 :)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,111
    FU/SimonSTClare/Sandpit /Charles/MD (Last thread) Obama and Blair are both slippery and metropolitan ex lawyers, both won, so what?
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited May 2015
    I think we can ignore this insane outlier.
    EICIPM.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    TGOHF said:

    @PennyRed: I don't have a problem with this. The bravery of past generations does not oblige us to be cowed today. https://t.co/QS6Oq55n5q

    Penny on graffiti on War memorials.

    Lovely...I suppose it is very easy to write crap like that from your dorm room of an extremely expensive American University....
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    BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Disco Boy voting in Herne Bay, Kent:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZvNdTW8cQ8
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    acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    Everybody loves a winner.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    http://goo.gl/SKbvbU

    It begins....
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    Oh dear, don't tell Charlotte Church ...... she'll be "mad as hell".
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Flightpathl said:

    Dair said:

    I have no idea how much of this article to trust.

    But it is truly juicy. There will be some excellent stories from this campaign.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3074175/Ed-writing-victory-speech-came-exit-poll-ANDREW-PIERCE-reflects-catastrophic-night-Labour-leader.html

    If it is true then it shows how bad Labour's polling was and/or that it was Ed and Labour who were really 'out of touch' and not the Eton toff Cameron and Tories.

    Also I see the Mail strenuously pointing out that Miliband does not simply live in Doncaster but has a ''detached constituency home in a pretty south Yorkshire village''.

    I must admit that you do a good service pointing me to this article because I honestly try not to read the Daily Mail. It says that 'Oxford academic' (whoever realised that the term could be so condescending?) Lord Wood ''dreamed up Miliband’s meaningless and forgettable slogans such as the ‘predistribution’ of wealth ''. No wonder labour lost!
    Pity they did not study predestination more.

    It is all the stuff of priceless drama doccumentary. ''When Ed Met... (insert suitable name here)''
    In the grand traditions of The Deal and Coalition, next election will surely be preceded by When Ed Met Russell.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    So opinion polls are very good at coming up with results that coincide with elections that have already taken place?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,111
    This poll is about as useful as a May 1992 one showing John Major romping home at the 1997 election, Panelbase would be better to save its money for a few weeks and spend it investigating where it got its forecasts wrong, then come out with a new first poll after the necessary adjustments have been made
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,000
    Ha. It's like that episode in The Simpson when Russia reveals it's really the Soviet Union.

    "Vote Labour? That's just what we wanted you to think! Mwahahaha!"
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    HYUFD said:

    This poll is about as useful as a May 1992 one showing John Major romping home at the 1997 election, Panelbase would be better to save its money for a few weeks and spend it investigating where it got its forecasts wrong, then come out with a new first poll after the necessary adjustments have been made

    Isn't that what this is? If this is based on their old weighting/methodologies, surely the Tories must be much higher :D
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,896
    FPT I don't see either Stella Creasey or Chuka Umunna as leadership material. John Cruddas excepted, no one who's based in London has a clue how to win over Middle England and Wales.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    broken sleazy Labour on the slide ?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I bumped into @Richard_Nabavi at the celebration drinkies in Eastbourne earlier. Wot a small world it is.

    Caroline Ansell is delightful as the new MP - hope she gets a Ministerial job in education before too long. One to watch me thinks.
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    jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    DaemonBarber said:

    felix said:

    I demand a recount - was it weighted for shy Labour?

    Shy labour? Ever met one?

    Me either
    Shy Tory here, do not want my car resprayed.

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,932
    LOL - I assume the Mail on Sunday have some sort of contract and didn't think to exclude this weekend. Alternately they ordered it when they were expecting a hung Parliament, in which case maybe it might have had some use.

    Any reason they don't show changes on their last poll, apart from the pollster trying to avoid his own embarrassment?
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Given some accuracy in the final polls regarding the minor parties then this is indicating a further fall in Lib Dem support (and this really would not surprise me.

    Also indicative of a further rise in SNP support. Which again I would expect as any "anyone but the Tories" voter will be deserting their previous options to vote SNP.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,886
    LOL!

    I've had quite enough of these polls for the next few weeks...
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Pretty sure Surviation did say they would continue polling post election, but of what real value it is now, rather than in a hung parliment position is anyones guess
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,509
    Sean_F said:

    FPT I don't see either Stella Creasey or Chuka Umunna as leadership material. John Cruddas excepted, no one who's based in London has a clue how to win over Middle England and Wales.

    Frank Field would be amazing, but I understand he's hated - hardly surprising for someone who talks sense in the Labour party.

    Oh, and apropos of nothing, I think Diane Abbot would make a great Speaker of the HOC.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I despair at times

    https://twitter.com/AFrankWords/status/597119268606578689
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Plato said:

    I despair at times

    https://twitter.com/AFrankWords/status/597119268606578689

    Relax, lets just hope labour continue to listen to people like Red Penny and Owen Jones.

    They'll be in opposition for ever if they do.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/597006143228108800
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Plato said:

    I despair at times

    https://twitter.com/AFrankWords/status/597119268606578689

    I assume her account has been hacked. Otherwise she's finished.
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    BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    jayfdee said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    felix said:

    I demand a recount - was it weighted for shy Labour?

    Shy labour? Ever met one?

    Me either
    Shy Tory here, do not want my car resprayed.

    I'm a shy kipper. I look out over one of the busiest rail links in London. I could have had four foot high U K I P letters in my windows seen by thousands every day, but I don't people scrawling over my door and pissing through my letter box which is definitely what would have happened. UKIP got about 3% in my constituency and to admit voting UKIP at work would be a career-stopper. .
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2015
    CON moves to 9% lead in first GE2020 poll.


    Apart from entertainment value, is this the most pointless poll ever commissioned ?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,896
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT I don't see either Stella Creasey or Chuka Umunna as leadership material. John Cruddas excepted, no one who's based in London has a clue how to win over Middle England and Wales.

    Frank Field would be amazing, but I understand he's hated - hardly surprising for someone who talks sense in the Labour party.

    Oh, and apropos of nothing, I think Diane Abbot would make a great Speaker of the HOC.
    A good rule of thumb for winning an election now is to run against London, like running against Washington.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Dair said:

    Given some accuracy in the final polls regarding the minor parties then this is indicating a further fall in Lib Dem support (and this really would not surprise me.

    Also indicative of a further rise in SNP support. Which again I would expect as any "anyone but the Tories" voter will be deserting their previous options to vote SNP.

    Looks like SNP flat-lining to me :)
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Plato said:

    I despair at times

    https://twitter.com/AFrankWords/status/597119268606578689

    And these people wonder why they didn't get enough votes.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,932
    edited May 2015
    Plato said:

    I despair at times

    twitter.com/AFrankWords/status/597119268606578689

    She actually said that - and then wonders why her beloved party lost the election! Some of the left really are losing it.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,111
    RobD Indeed, but it is not that different to get a poll result reflecting an election 2 days ago, no polling company can have done a full research exercise into what they got wrong in that time
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    After the fall of Berlin: no one was a Nazi, knew a Nazi, or had ever met a Nazi.

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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/labour-left-miliband-hating-english

    'A friend made the point when he told me that at 8.30am on Friday, when Ed Balls lost his seat, the trading floor at Credit Suisse at Canary Wharf erupted with cheers. I don’t doubt there were similar yelps of delight on every other trading floor in the City.'

    Brilliant, just brilliant....

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,111
    edited May 2015
    SeanF Cruddas represents leftwing populism, which may win back a few wwc voters from UKIP but not many more. As I said in the last thread it is the suburban middle classes Blair won who Labour need to win back
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    SimonStClare said:

    CON moves to 9% lead in first GE2020 poll.


    Apart from entertainment value, is this the most pointless poll ever commissioned ?

    No, you're thinking of the ones commissioned prior to the 2015 election :)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    Changes on their last poll

    Con +7, Lab -3, UKIP -4, LD -3

    Lab collapsing after Ed quits.

    BRING BACK ED!
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    I think we can ignore this insane outlier.
    EICIPM.

    May2015 aren't including it.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Crossover
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    RobD said:

    SimonStClare said:

    CON moves to 9% lead in first GE2020 poll.


    Apart from entertainment value, is this the most pointless poll ever commissioned ?

    No, you're thinking of the ones commissioned prior to the 2015 election :)
    Arf - good point well made Sir :lol:
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL :smiley:
    Slackbladder said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/labour-left-miliband-hating-english

    'A friend made the point when he told me that at 8.30am on Friday, when Ed Balls lost his seat, the trading floor at Credit Suisse at Canary Wharf erupted with cheers. I don’t doubt there were similar yelps of delight on every other trading floor in the City.'

    Brilliant, just brilliant....

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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited May 2015
    FPT

    I agree with Kendal - good thinker. Umunna reminds me too much of African politicians I used to meet in sub-Saharan Africa when working on World Bank projects. They were too proud of their own importance, looked down on their fellow Africans as inferior and treated them almost as slaves and all had a healthy Swiss Bank Account.

    Labour needs leaders with the width of thought like Hoey and Field and have a similar backgrounds - not sure where they will find them
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Plato said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/597114135608963072

    OKaaay

    That's like recording University Challenge and watching it back with friends pretending you haven't seen it before...
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    welshowl said:

    Crossover

    Lol to that as well. But seriously, when can we expect crossover? I'll go for September.

    UKIP to lead Labour in September.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Changes on their last poll

    Con +7, Lab -3, UKIP -4, LD -3

    Lab collapsing after Ed quits.

    BRING BACK ED!

    Margin of error of the margin of error movements?... titter
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    To be semi-serious - right of centre 52% left of centre 39% Lds/other 8% Result :)
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The Day The Polls Turned. :sunglasses:
    welshowl said:

    Crossover

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503
    DIGIPM.
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    JazJaz Posts: 21
    Looks like Survation have changed their weightings...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    Has the official wake finished yet on BBC News?
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Changes on their last poll

    Con +7, Lab -3, UKIP -4, LD -3

    Lab collapsing after Ed quits.

    BRING BACK ED!

    This puts UKIP + Cons at >50%, whereas in the GE they were just under 50%. How much support would UKIP lose if they cosied up to the Cons?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,000
    Miss DiCanio, it'd be nice if 'twere so, but I doubt it.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,975
    edited May 2015
    https://twitter.com/theboyknowles/status/597120512909774848
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    What would Basil think....EICIPM?
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/567327091495272448
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,111
    Financier Many of those African leaders also won elections, even Mugabe, and Umunna is no more pompous than Obama. Umunna would need the advice of field and Hoey but thinkers do not win elections, just ask John Kerry, Michael Ignatieff or, indeed, Ed Miliband
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2015
    Blueberry said:

    jayfdee said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    felix said:

    I demand a recount - was it weighted for shy Labour?

    Shy labour? Ever met one?

    Me either
    Shy Tory here, do not want my car resprayed.

    I'm a shy kipper. I look out over one of the busiest rail links in London. I could have had four foot high U K I P letters in my windows seen by thousands every day, but I don't people scrawling over my door and pissing through my letter box which is definitely what would have happened. UKIP got about 3% in my constituency and to admit voting UKIP at work would be a career-stopper. .
    True anecdote. After taking down a LibDem poster from my window in OxWAb after 1992 I found a neat hole in the window made by an air rifle pellet...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/567327091495272448

    Plenty of material to keep us entertained until the next election.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    Early in...front page of tomorrow's Guardian...

    http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/unnamed1-330x440.jpg
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Has the official wake finished yet on BBC News?

    Have they sacked Andrew Marr yet? He was virtually in tears as the Scottish results came in. Embarrassing stuff.

    BBC were total crap all night, I gave up like many others. SKY pretty good on a low budget!

    (Apols I have no doubt this has all been discussed on here, but I was out of action most of Friday and wife ill in bed all day today so looking after 3 children!)
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    :lol::smiley::sunglasses:

    Can anything constructive be said about this poll?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503
    Sean_F said:

    FPT I don't see either Stella Creasey or Chuka Umunna as leadership material. John Cruddas excepted, no one who's based in London has a clue how to win over Middle England and Wales.

    This is so true. The posts I've read from left-wing people on Facebook who live in London have both been hysterical, and demonstrated a total lack of self-awareness.
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    RodCrosby said:

    Blueberry said:

    jayfdee said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    felix said:

    I demand a recount - was it weighted for shy Labour?

    Shy labour? Ever met one?

    Me either
    Shy Tory here, do not want my car resprayed.

    I'm a shy kipper. I look out over one of the busiest rail links in London. I could have had four foot high U K I P letters in my windows seen by thousands every day, but I don't people scrawling over my door and pissing through my letter box which is definitely what would have happened. UKIP got about 3% in my constituency and to admit voting UKIP at work would be a career-stopper. .
    True anecdote. After taking down a LibDem poster from my window in OxWAb after 1992 I found a neat hole in the window made by an air rifle pellet...
    Pure coincidence. They were just trying to shoot you ;-)
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503
    Has OGH broken into the subsamples yet to explain why this poll is actually good for Labour?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited May 2015
    JonCisBack said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Has the official wake finished yet on BBC News?

    Have they sacked Andrew Marr yet? He was virtually in tears as the Scottish results came in. Embarrassing stuff.

    BBC were total crap all night, I gave up like many others. SKY pretty good on a low budget!

    (Apols I have no doubt this has all been discussed on here, but I was out of action most of Friday and wife ill in bed all day today so looking after 3 children!)
    Emily Maitlis was ready for breaking down when the coverage started.

    I had both on + PB and obviously PB was #1, but Sky was much better than BBC.
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    jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    Blueberry said:

    jayfdee said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    felix said:

    I demand a recount - was it weighted for shy Labour?

    Shy labour? Ever met one?

    Me either
    Shy Tory here, do not want my car resprayed.

    I'm a shy kipper. I look out over one of the busiest rail links in London. I could have had four foot high U K I P letters in my windows seen by thousands every day, but I don't people scrawling over my door and pissing through my letter box which is definitely what would have happened. UKIP got about 3% in my constituency and to admit voting UKIP at work would be a career-stopper. .
    Have to agree, what, am i agreeing with a Kipper!. But you make a valid point,in my working days I was the subject of much intimidation, including hate mail and death threats, accusations I was causing cancers, and birth deformities etc.
    I prefer a low profile life now.

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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Re. Stephen Kinnock MP (to whom my congratulations, this is not aimed at his circumstances, I'm merely carrying the principle to its logical conclusion).

    Are there any 'conflict of interest' regulations that deal with close personal relationships with foreign government officials?

    Suppose one were in high office & taking despatch boxes home to where a foreign gov. official has free access?

    The very end of that line would be quite beneficial - PM of one country married to PM of another should make for very good relations between the countries (as long as the personal relationship stayed OK).

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Changes on their last poll

    Con +7, Lab -3, UKIP -4, LD -3

    Lab collapsing after Ed quits.

    BRING BACK ED!

    There will shortly be an election in which the Conservatives will increase their majority.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Casino_Royale said:

    Has OGH broken into the subsamples yet to explain why this poll is actually good for Labour?

    He'll be explaining why tories need more of swing to obtain a majority.

    Sorry...couldn't resist
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,970
    Slackbladder said:

    Pretty sure Surviation did say they would continue polling post election, but of what real value it is now, rather than in a hung parliment position is anyones guess

    I suppose it does give continuty. At some point over the next few months up to the end of the year we are going to start wondering again how the parties are doing relative to each other and it is probably useful to have at least one pollster continuing to give a regular output on a weekly basis to see how the changes develop.

    Whether we should actually hold any store by them is a different matter entirely.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    JonCisBack said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Blueberry said:

    jayfdee said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    felix said:

    I demand a recount - was it weighted for shy Labour?

    Shy labour? Ever met one?

    Me either
    Shy Tory here, do not want my car resprayed.

    I'm a shy kipper. I look out over one of the busiest rail links in London. I could have had four foot high U K I P letters in my windows seen by thousands every day, but I don't people scrawling over my door and pissing through my letter box which is definitely what would have happened. UKIP got about 3% in my constituency and to admit voting UKIP at work would be a career-stopper. .
    True anecdote. After taking down a LibDem poster from my window in OxWAb after 1992 I found a neat hole in the window made by an air rifle pellet...
    Pure coincidence. They were just trying to shoot you ;-)
    Not sure. The poster had Ashdown's face on it...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    JonCisBack said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Has the official wake finished yet on BBC News?

    Have they sacked Andrew Marr yet? He was virtually in tears as the Scottish results came in. Embarrassing stuff.

    BBC were total crap all night, I gave up like many others. SKY pretty good on a low budget!

    (Apols I have no doubt this has all been discussed on here, but I was out of action most of Friday and wife ill in bed all day today so looking after 3 children!)
    Emily Maitlis was ready for breaking down when the coverage started.

    I had both on + PB and obviously PB was #1, but Sky was much better than BBC.
    Yeah, she was not happy!
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I just snorted there - brilliant.
    Tissue_Price said:

    ttps://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/567327091495272448

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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,124
    Leanne Wood and PC generally must be wondering what they've done wrong.

    They see the SNP carrying all before them but in Wales they don't gain Ynys Monn from Labour and they don't gain Ceredigon from the LibDems.

    Meanwhile the Conservatives make three Welsh gains and UKIP picks up disaffected LAbour supporters in the Valley and north-east Wales.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Slackbladder said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/labour-left-miliband-hating-english

    'A friend made the point when he told me that at 8.30am on Friday, when Ed Balls lost his seat, the trading floor at Credit Suisse at Canary Wharf erupted with cheers. I don’t doubt there were similar yelps of delight on every other trading floor in the City.'

    Brilliant, just brilliant....

    A very good article - the point about favoured minorities clearly struck a chord with the writer. The luvvies will hate the whole thing.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    To be honest, I want to see more Scotland polling, Holyrood next year is the next major polling event/alongside the London Mayoral election.
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    HYUFD said:

    Financier Many of those African leaders also won elections, even Mugabe, and Umunna is no more pompous than Obama. Umunna would need the advice of field and Hoey but thinkers do not win elections, just ask John Kerry, Michael Ignatieff or, indeed, Ed Miliband

    Yes, excepting Obama (who is not an African leader), most of the African leaders I met (except John Kufor of Ghana) won due to a mixture of corruption, bribery and threats. I would not nominate Mugabe as a clean operator. I mentioned wide thinkers as the last lot of Labour evidently were not and probably did not want to be seen as such.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    RodCrosby said:

    JonCisBack said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Blueberry said:

    jayfdee said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    felix said:

    I demand a recount - was it weighted for shy Labour?

    Shy labour? Ever met one?

    Me either
    Shy Tory here, do not want my car resprayed.

    I'm a shy kipper. I look out over one of the busiest rail links in London. I could have had four foot high U K I P letters in my windows seen by thousands every day, but I don't people scrawling over my door and pissing through my letter box which is definitely what would have happened. UKIP got about 3% in my constituency and to admit voting UKIP at work would be a career-stopper. .
    True anecdote. After taking down a LibDem poster from my window in OxWAb after 1992 I found a neat hole in the window made by an air rifle pellet...
    Pure coincidence. They were just trying to shoot you ;-)
    Not sure. The poster had Ashdown's face on it...
    The work of a Thorpe irredentist.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Pretty sure Surviation did say they would continue polling post election, but of what real value it is now, rather than in a hung parliment position is anyones guess

    I suppose it does give continuty. At some point over the next few months up to the end of the year we are going to start wondering again how the parties are doing relative to each other and it is probably useful to have at least one pollster continuing to give a regular output on a weekly basis to see how the changes develop.

    Whether we should actually hold any store by them is a different matter entirely.
    Yeah, as much as we joke about it, having the continuity definitely helps. Like how MORI keeps asking the same question regarding issues facing the country.
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    RodCrosby said:

    JonCisBack said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Blueberry said:

    jayfdee said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    felix said:

    I demand a recount - was it weighted for shy Labour?

    Shy labour? Ever met one?

    Me either
    Shy Tory here, do not want my car resprayed.

    I'm a shy kipper. I look out over one of the busiest rail links in London. I could have had four foot high U K I P letters in my windows seen by thousands every day, but I don't people scrawling over my door and pissing through my letter box which is definitely what would have happened. UKIP got about 3% in my constituency and to admit voting UKIP at work would be a career-stopper. .
    True anecdote. After taking down a LibDem poster from my window in OxWAb after 1992 I found a neat hole in the window made by an air rifle pellet...
    Pure coincidence. They were just trying to shoot you ;-)
    Not sure. The poster had Ashdown's face on it...
    LOL

    Back in those days LD posters were rife. Based on poster count the LDs looked like they would win my parents' seat by 3:1ish. Tory majority 21K in the end...
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,000
    Mr. Eagles, isn't the Welsh Assembly before Holyrood? I think I heard Farage saying he reckoned UKIP could make advances there.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Casino_Royale said:

    Has OGH broken into the subsamples yet to explain why this poll is actually good for Labour?

    Labour surging ahead in Bootle :)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Greens have been hammered in Brighton and Hove, down 10 seats.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    felix said:

    Slackbladder said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/labour-left-miliband-hating-english

    'A friend made the point when he told me that at 8.30am on Friday, when Ed Balls lost his seat, the trading floor at Credit Suisse at Canary Wharf erupted with cheers. I don’t doubt there were similar yelps of delight on every other trading floor in the City.'

    Brilliant, just brilliant....

    A very good article - the point about favoured minorities clearly struck a chord with the writer. The luvvies will hate the whole thing.
    Just the trading floor in the city...Wouldn't surprise me if the cheer from that announcement didn't register as some minor earth tremor across the country!
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