Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON moves to 9% lead in first GE2020 poll.

2456710

Comments

  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    AnneJGP said:

    Re. Stephen Kinnock MP (to whom my congratulations, this is not aimed at his circumstances, I'm merely carrying the principle to its logical conclusion).

    Are there any 'conflict of interest' regulations that deal with close personal relationships with foreign government officials?

    Suppose one were in high office & taking despatch boxes home to where a foreign gov. official has free access?

    The very end of that line would be quite beneficial - PM of one country married to PM of another should make for very good relations between the countries (as long as the personal relationship stayed OK).

    Do you remember what happened when Preston North End sacked Darren Ferguson? Manchester United recalled the players they had loan there. Nothing personal, of course.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I see the poster formally known as AudreyAnne in another guise was banned again on FPT.

    Come on guys. She was almost pitch perfect on the predictions - this is getting silly.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Dave can't win.


  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,748

    Mr. Eagles, isn't the Welsh Assembly before Holyrood? I think I heard Farage saying he reckoned UKIP could make advances there.

    Same day as Holyrood/London
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Labour numpty on Sky calling for 'new' New Labour...
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    isam said:
    Just shows that the UK needs to import a continental European electoral system.

    Such a shame Farage would never support such a move.

    Oh he wants such an immigrant European system?

    Strange.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited May 2015
    RobD said:

    Greens have been hammered in Brighton and Hove, down 10 seats.

    The council are a total clusterf##k down there....I have some friends who live there and more than likely voted Lucas back in, but say it is just a disaster zone.
  • Options
    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Mr. Eagles, isn't the Welsh Assembly before Holyrood? I think I heard Farage saying he reckoned UKIP could make advances there.

    Yes UKIP got lots of second places in Welsh Labour seats and could get a lot of list seats that would displace current Cons, LDs and Plaid.

    One quirk of the GE, is that in Ceredigion none of the 6 candidates lost their deposit.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    What Thursday night told the Kippers is where they're strongest - now they can target effectively.

    Without this - they'd have no idea bar anecdotes.
    Dair said:

    isam said:
    Just shows that the UK needs to import a continental European electoral system.

    Such a shame Farage would never support such a move.

    Oh he wants such an immigrant European system?

    Strange.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,033
    Mr. Dair, no.

    It shows that UKIP failed at strategy. Again. PR is the work of Satan.

    Mr. Eagles, ah. I wonder if the London count will be as slack as last time.

    Miss Plato, was a bit surprised by that.
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Plato said:

    I see the poster formally known as AudreyAnne in another guise was banned again on FPT.

    Come on guys. She was almost pitch perfect on the predictions - this is getting silly.

    It seems like several commenters just disappear without explanation, or without the ability to explain what's happened. It does not seem like the best way to moderate an online forum.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Are YouGov doing a poll tonight?
  • Options
    jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    RobD said:

    Has the official wake finished yet on BBC News?

    Have they sacked Andrew Marr yet? He was virtually in tears as the Scottish results came in. Embarrassing stuff.

    BBC were total crap all night, I gave up like many others. SKY pretty good on a low budget!

    (Apols I have no doubt this has all been discussed on here, but I was out of action most of Friday and wife ill in bed all day today so looking after 3 children!)
    Emily Maitlis was ready for breaking down when the coverage started.

    I had both on + PB and obviously PB was #1, but Sky was much better than BBC.
    Yeah, she was not happy!
    Emily came running with me and a few club mates a few weeks ago,she looked better on TV than in her running kit,but she was very professional especially with retakes of the filming. We all had a good morning out, and free lunch on her BBC expense account.

  • Options
    GravitationGravitation Posts: 281
    Polls already? Thought we'd have a week or so off but like the politics junkies we are we'll soon start poring over rolling averages and sub-samples.

    At least we have finally, finally seen the last of posters repeatedly saying EICIPM
  • Options
    acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141

    Early in...front page of tomorrow's Guardian...

    http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/unnamed1-330x440.jpg

    Panelbase, 2015's Angus Reid.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    RodCrosby said:

    Labour numpty on Sky calling for 'new' New Labour...

    New Labour Classic
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    It's 34 Cons and 34 Labs - we don't need a poll to tell us what they'd say :sunglasses:

    Are YouGov doing a poll tonight?

  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Leanne Wood and PC generally must be wondering what they've done wrong.

    They see the SNP carrying all before them but in Wales they don't gain Ynys Monn from Labour and they don't gain Ceredigon from the LibDems.

    Meanwhile the Conservatives make three Welsh gains and UKIP picks up disaffected LAbour supporters in the Valley and north-east Wales.

    Plaid have never got their strategy right. Wood is personable and telegenic but she's also a republican. The SNP avoid "reasons not to vote SNP". They spent decades as Liberal Democrats and only shifted to Social Democracy in the last 10 years with the Liberal Democrats well entrenched and happy enough to capture the lefties.

    Wales also has the problem of its natural wealth having run out many decades ago and its wealth filched since then. It's economically as weak as any third world toilet and only propped up on UK money.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I Can't Believe It's Not Labour?
    kle4 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Labour numpty on Sky calling for 'new' New Labour...

    New Labour Classic
  • Options
    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    edited May 2015
    More gazing into the results supplement...

    Why did the tories up against LDs in Carshalton and Wallingotn (and also Southport) do so relatively badly?

    Actually surprised the LDs held these 2 seats,. If the tory in C&W had done similarly to the tory performance in Twickenham (+7%) or even Kingston and Surbiton (+2.7%) , C&W would have gone blue. C&W tory lost >5% on 2010, Southport tory lost nearly 8% and lost by < 3 %

    LDs night could easily have been even worse. Is Mark Senior about to explain?
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Plato said:

    I Can't Believe It's Not Labour?

    kle4 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Labour numpty on Sky calling for 'new' New Labour...

    New Labour Classic
    Post Post New Labour?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    jayfdee said:

    RobD said:

    Has the official wake finished yet on BBC News?

    Have they sacked Andrew Marr yet? He was virtually in tears as the Scottish results came in. Embarrassing stuff.

    BBC were total crap all night, I gave up like many others. SKY pretty good on a low budget!

    (Apols I have no doubt this has all been discussed on here, but I was out of action most of Friday and wife ill in bed all day today so looking after 3 children!)
    Emily Maitlis was ready for breaking down when the coverage started.

    I had both on + PB and obviously PB was #1, but Sky was much better than BBC.
    Yeah, she was not happy!
    Emily came running with me and a few club mates a few weeks ago,she looked better on TV than in her running kit,but she was very professional especially with retakes of the filming. We all had a good morning out, and free lunch on her BBC expense account.

    Did that ever get broadcast?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    Dair said:

    isam said:
    Just shows that the UK needs to import a continental European electoral system.

    Such a shame Farage would never support such a move.

    Oh he wants such an immigrant European system?

    Strange.
    You are such a little European that you can only think in terms of that bloc. PR is used in many countries around the world including Commonwealth countries. And yes Farage supports the move to PR.
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    kle4 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Labour numpty on Sky calling for 'new' New Labour...

    New Labour Classic
    Red Bull.
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    To be honest, I want to see more Scotland polling, Holyrood next year is the next major polling event/alongside the London Mayoral election.

    It would be nice to see some markets. Lib Dem extinction market, Orkney and Zetland Constituencies, maybe opposition markets and Green range.

    But I don't see why the bookies create early political markets - isn't that where all the killings happen? Don't really get that from a business point of view. I doubt all the deluded Kippers covered the losses on SLAB and Scottish Constituency bets.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,629
    This isn't the Survation they held back from publishing on Election Day?

    :lol:
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    When are we expecting crossover?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,033
    Mr. kle4, New Labour Strikes Back.
  • Options
    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    RodCrosby said:

    Labour numpty on Sky calling for 'new' New Labour...

    Newer Labour

    New Labour with a vengeance
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    kle4 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Labour numpty on Sky calling for 'new' New Labour...

    New Labour Classic
    Red Bull.
    Fizzy water which tastes like shit, makes you go a little mad then gives you a headache, which is no good for you? Sounds about right...

    (having said that I had two cans on friday to keep me going)
  • Options
    FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    More gazing into the results supplement...

    Why did the tories up against LDs in Carshalton and Wallingotn (and also Southport) do so relatively badly?

    Actually surprised the LDs held these 2 seats,. If the tory in C&W had done similarly to the tory performance in Twickenham (+7%) or even Kingston and Surbiton (+2.7%) , C&W would have gone blue. C&W tory lost >5% on 2010, Southport tory lost nearly 8% and lost by < 3 %

    LDs night could easily have been even worse. Is Mark Senior about to explain?

    Cable was not standing in Southport...
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,629
    Anyone know if Paddy has eaten his hat yet?

    :o:
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    JEO said:

    Plato said:

    I see the poster formally known as AudreyAnne in another guise was banned again on FPT.

    Come on guys. She was almost pitch perfect on the predictions - this is getting silly.

    It seems like several commenters just disappear without explanation, or without the ability to explain what's happened. It does not seem like the best way to moderate an online forum.
    Like AveryLP. Surely we'll have a return of the Yellow Boxes and the glorious George Osborne (most popular heir-to-a-baronetcy in the realm) avatar.
  • Options
    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911

    Mr. kle4, New Labour Strikes Back.

    Their on-message 1997 intake:

    Attack of the clones...
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,629
    Plato said:

    It's 34 Cons and 34 Labs - we don't need a poll to tell us what they'd say :sunglasses:

    Are YouGov doing a poll tonight?

    LOL!! :lol:
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,071

    RobD said:

    Greens have been hammered in Brighton and Hove, down 10 seats.

    The council are a total clusterf##k down there....I have some friends who live there and more than likely voted Lucas back in, but say it is just a disaster zone.
    Yes, they've pretty much tried to ban cars from the city, with the result that it takes an hour to drive the last couple of miles on the A23 almost any time of day so people don't make the trip any more.. Also they had loads of issues with bin collections. Or more accurately a lack of bin collections.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    RodCrosby said:

    Labour numpty on Sky calling for 'new' New Labour...

    Newer Labour

    New Labour with a vengeance
    New Labour 2: Triangulate harder...
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    To be honest, I want to see more Scotland polling, Holyrood next year is the next major polling event/alongside the London Mayoral election.

    Bet the house on #SexySocialism
  • Options
    jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618

    jayfdee said:

    RobD said:

    Has the official wake finished yet on BBC News?

    Have they sacked Andrew Marr yet? He was virtually in tears as the Scottish results came in. Embarrassing stuff.

    BBC were total crap all night, I gave up like many others. SKY pretty good on a low budget!

    (Apols I have no doubt this has all been discussed on here, but I was out of action most of Friday and wife ill in bed all day today so looking after 3 children!)
    Emily Maitlis was ready for breaking down when the coverage started.

    I had both on + PB and obviously PB was #1, but Sky was much better than BBC.
    Yeah, she was not happy!
    Emily came running with me and a few club mates a few weeks ago,she looked better on TV than in her running kit,but she was very professional especially with retakes of the filming. We all had a good morning out, and free lunch on her BBC expense account.

    Did that ever get broadcast?
    Yes we were on Newsnight,about a month ago, she wanted an interview in Farron country, about 3 hours of filming condensed down to about 1 minute.
    She has undoubted stamina,doing an all nighter and still looking good, however she had a stupid whippet dog running with us,which in this part of the world is not good.

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,629

    Are YouGov doing a poll tonight?

    YouGov if you want to. The Lady's NOT for gov'ing!
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,033
    Mr. C, but will the next leader be A New Dope?
  • Options
    FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    jayfdee said:

    RobD said:

    Has the official wake finished yet on BBC News?

    Have they sacked Andrew Marr yet? He was virtually in tears as the Scottish results came in. Embarrassing stuff.

    BBC were total crap all night, I gave up like many others. SKY pretty good on a low budget!

    (Apols I have no doubt this has all been discussed on here, but I was out of action most of Friday and wife ill in bed all day today so looking after 3 children!)
    Emily Maitlis was ready for breaking down when the coverage started.

    I had both on + PB and obviously PB was #1, but Sky was much better than BBC.
    Yeah, she was not happy!
    Emily came running with me and a few club mates a few weeks ago,she looked better on TV than in her running kit,but she was very professional especially with retakes of the filming. We all had a good morning out, and free lunch on her BBC expense account.

    How very ungallant of you to say so.
  • Options
    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Why has the BBC news main item since lunchtime been "Sturgeon bursting with pride"?

    1) Is this news?

    2) Has nothing else happened in the world?

    Amusing more than annoying but still
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    Xtreme Labour - a UNITE offshoot to the youth
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Actually, thinking about it Callum and antifrank could probably afford some private Scotland polling right now
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Alistair said:

    Actually, thinking about it Callum and antifrank could probably afford some private Scotland polling right now

    Your coat, sir.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,629
    edited May 2015
    acf2310 said:

    Early in...front page of tomorrow's Guardian...

    http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/unnamed1-330x440.jpg

    Panelbase, 2015's Angus Reid.

    Nah, that's YouGov!
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223

    Why has the BBC news main item since lunchtime been "Sturgeon bursting with pride"?

    1) Is this news?

    2) Has nothing else happened in the world?

    Amusing more than annoying but still

    They're in denial. I'd quite like to see the BBC wound up, but actually it's more amusing to watch them pretend that they are politically neutral.
  • Options
    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    SURVATION

    Only a sub sample but this has the SNP at 62 per cent. I shall repeat that 62 per cent!
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    kle4 said:

    Xtreme Labour - a UNITE offshoot to the youth

    New Labour MAX
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130

    Why has the BBC news main item since lunchtime been "Sturgeon bursting with pride"?

    1) Is this news?

    2) Has nothing else happened in the world?

    If she is still bursting after all this time, that may well be news, sounds very uncomfortable.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    UKIP did gain Thanet council. I'm assuming they'll be more sensible than their Green 'counterparts' in Brighton!
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2015
    Has anyone had the Green Deposits bet settled yet on Betfair?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    scotslass said:

    SURVATION

    Only a sub sample but this has the SNP at 62 per cent. I shall repeat that 62 per cent!

    I suppose you have three seats to target LOL.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    RobD said:

    UKIP did gain Thanet council. I'm assuming they'll be more sensible than their Green 'counterparts' in Brighton!

    It should be a good test of their commitment not to whip votes.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    It's like a parallel world post 7th May re polling - after thousands of posts and hundreds of threads - we're laughing with gallows humour at them all now.

    Dearie me, I can't recall a bigger upset in credibility for a sector as this.

  • Options
    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Leanne Wood and PC generally must be wondering what they've done wrong.

    They see the SNP carrying all before them but in Wales they don't gain Ynys Monn from Labour and they don't gain Ceredigon from the LibDems.

    Meanwhile the Conservatives make three Welsh gains and UKIP picks up disaffected LAbour supporters in the Valley and north-east Wales.

    Leanne Wood is a republican and to the left of Labour, so often she is fishing in the same pool. Ynys Mon Council is composed mainly of two sets of independents who are unpredictable and the council was put into administration by the Welsh Government.

    The PC candidate for Ceredigion, had a mixed history and as student had likened English immigrants to Wales as similar to Nazis and refused to apologise for that remark. In the street he was totally unable to explain how he/PC would achieve their policies set out in his literature. PC knew that they were losing as they had canvassers out on election day.

    The LD MP, Mark Williams, has been an extremely good constituency MP and has built up a strong incumbency. He is a very quiet man, a bit of a rebel and lives with his family in the constituency - Ceredigion is very conservative (small c) and likes the status quo and being fussed over by their MP>
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Plato said:

    I see the poster formally known as AudreyAnne in another guise was banned again on FPT.

    Come on guys. She was almost pitch perfect on the predictions - this is getting silly.

    My recollection is that poster was rude to OGH. Anyone doing that on someone's blog should expect to be banned.
  • Options
    GravitationGravitation Posts: 281
    I just sincerely hope that neither YouGov nor another company does a daily online poll again this time.

    Then again, YouGov and Peter Kellner must be laughing all the way to the bank after getting the contract from The Sun
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Mr. Dair, no.

    It shows that UKIP failed at strategy. Again. PR is the work of Satan.

    Mr. Eagles, ah. I wonder if the London count will be as slack as last time.

    Miss Plato, was a bit surprised by that.

    It's Farage and the senior UKIP politicians who are now calling for the UK to import an Immigrant European Electoral System.

    Go figure.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,033
    Mr. Alistair, Mr. Calum's probably got his own island and/or castle now after that tipping performance.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Apply here for your fire sale free owl

    https://twitter.com/Ou_Prg/status/595472511694954496
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Plato said:

    It's like a parallel world post 7th May re polling - after thousands of posts and hundreds of threads - we're laughing with gallows humour at them all now.

    Dearie me, I can't recall a bigger upset in credibility for a sector as this.

    1992? :D:D:D
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,071
    tlg86 said:

    Why has the BBC news main item since lunchtime been "Sturgeon bursting with pride"?

    1) Is this news?

    2) Has nothing else happened in the world?

    Amusing more than annoying but still

    They're in denial. I'd quite like to see the BBC wound up, but actually it's more amusing to watch them pretend that they are politically neutral.
    I imagine when the shock of the result finally wears off, they will be crapping themselves at the thought of what's about to happen to their budget.

    How popular would a 50% cut in the telly tax be, it's one of the most regressive taxes out there?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,279
    Dair Farage backed AV in 2011 and has said he would consider PR
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,033
    Mr. Dair, Farage is entitled to be completely wrong. It's a free society, despite what might deface war memorials.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    UKIP did gain Thanet council. I'm assuming they'll be more sensible than their Green 'counterparts' in Brighton!

    It should be a good test of their commitment not to whip votes.
    And to see if they are fit to run a whelk stall...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    RobD said:

    Plato said:

    It's like a parallel world post 7th May re polling - after thousands of posts and hundreds of threads - we're laughing with gallows humour at them all now.

    Dearie me, I can't recall a bigger upset in credibility for a sector as this.

    1992? :D:D:D
    That got the direction of travel right at least though I believe.
  • Options
    acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    On a more serious note, Survation do seem to be trying really hard to create a reputation as the pollster than was secretly right.

    That makes me doubt their credibility far more than the pollsters who immediately said 'we got it wrong and we'll look at why that was, and how we can put it right.' This new poll that Survation have come out with is an online poll -- so it's not even using the fancy new methodology.

    We'll all be very suspicious of all the polls, but I think there's a good case for taking anything that comes out of Survation with especial scepticism.
  • Options
    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Apologies I misread and exagerated the SNP total. They only have 60.2 per cent on Survation sub sample not 62 per cent!


    SNP 60.2% : Lab 12.6% : Con 12.2% : LD 3.9% : UKIP 3.7% : Grn 1.6%
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    CON might be further ahead in reality than this poll you know. The opposition is all in a state right now. The shy Tories may not even be gone.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    scotslass said:

    Apologies I misread and exagerated the SNP total. They only have 60.2 per cent on Survation sub sample not 62 per cent!


    SNP 60.2% : Lab 12.6% : Con 12.2% : LD 3.9% : UKIP 3.7% : Grn 1.6%

    I was promised a Tory surge :(
  • Options
    FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    What would Basil think....EICIPM?

    Y'know wot? Those initials should be carved in stone.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,157
    Alistair said:

    To be honest, I want to see more Scotland polling, Holyrood next year is the next major polling event/alongside the London Mayoral election.

    Bet the house on #SexySocialism
    And #AngrySalmond - very often very funny indeed. And with a good charitable aim too.

  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Plato said:

    I see the poster formally known as AudreyAnne in another guise was banned again on FPT.

    Come on guys. She was almost pitch perfect on the predictions - this is getting silly.

    Why on earth has she been banned again?

    She promised last thread not to be rude again - and made some reasonable criticisms of Mike's approach in a measured way. Some of which I even agree with.

    Mike: you can't just go on banning people for no reason. If you need assistance moderating, then I'm sure that lots of people will volunteer.

    But the fact that Audreyanne got support from both @SeanT and @malcolmg suggests that you may just have, possibly, got this one wrong.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,748
    He's back.

    Tony Blair tells Labour: return to the centre ground to win again

    Former PM says party has to be ‘for ambition and aspiration as well as compassion and care’

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/09/tony-blair-labour-return-centre-ground-general-election-defeat
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    acf2310 said:

    On a more serious note, Survation do seem to be trying really hard to create a reputation as the pollster than was secretly right.

    That makes me doubt their credibility far more than the pollsters who immediately said 'we got it wrong and we'll look at why that was, and how we can put it right.' This new poll that Survation have come out with is an online poll -- so it's not even using the fancy new methodology.

    We'll all be very suspicious of all the polls, but I think there's a good case for taking anything that comes out of Survation with especial scepticism.

    Yeah, that whole blog post about how they were secretly right all along, but didn't want to publish it. Give me a break.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,279
    edited May 2015
    Blueberry In an EU referendum the Out campaign will be far more vocal and populist as Yes was, both will play the patriot card, In voters will be more silent as No voters were
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Internet Poll - add 6 to the Tories.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited May 2015
    Good Evening PBers

    Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.

    That time has come.

    Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.

    In the recent parlance of PB :

    JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Alistair said:

    Has anyone had the Green Deposits bet settled yet on Betfair?

    Oh Is that not settled yet ?

    I covered 0-30% - there is MORE money possibly coming back ?!
  • Options
    Tony_MTony_M Posts: 70
    kle4 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Labour numpty on Sky calling for 'new' New Labour...

    New Labour Classic
    The Labourshank Redemption
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    JackW said:

    Good Evening PBers

    Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.

    That time has come.

    Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.

    In the recent parlance of PB :

    JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.

    I hope the old Jacobite has a relaxing period of convalescence, and that his ARSE be maintained in all its glory until he returns.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    edited May 2015
    I know they don't want to be mean, but how are people like Blair praising Miliband's campaigning as brilliant whilst similarly trashing his message and policy focus?

    "Ed was brilliant, simply brilliant...except for everything he said, which was wrong. But what a courageous and brilliant campaigner"
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Did they prompt for UKIP?

    I think we should be told.
    Pulpstar said:

    CON might be further ahead in reality than this poll you know. The opposition is all in a state right now. The shy Tories may not even be gone.

  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,796
    JackW said:

    Good Evening PBers

    Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.

    That time has come.

    Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.

    In the recent parlance of PB :

    JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.

    Best wishes Jack.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    You wouldn't have thought that if the LDs held one seat in London it would be Carshalton & Wallington. Also that Ceredigion now has one of the biggest majorities of any LD seat.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,279
    Financier I would agree whoever ends up Labour leader will want to have a good team behind him, Chuka interestingly was a member of political think tank Compass, he is not averse to political thought
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    JackW said:

    Good Evening PBers

    Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.

    That time has come.

    Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.

    In the recent parlance of PB :

    JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.

    Best Wishes, Jack.

    Hurry back.
  • Options
    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    I don't think the Survation 2010 vote proportions are what happened in the election. I think there was 10%+ Lab -> Con switchers and 15% Lab -> UKIP. I imagine Labour actually had the 30% of 2010 Lib Dems that the polls reported.
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Why has the BBC news main item since lunchtime been "Sturgeon bursting with pride"?

    1) Is this news?

    2) Has nothing else happened in the world?

    Amusing more than annoying but still

    This is the UK. Scotland is the story.
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    JackW said:

    Good Evening PBers

    Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.

    That time has come.

    Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.

    In the recent parlance of PB :

    JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.

    Very best wishes to you Jack, I have learnt a lot from you and I am truly grateful.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,033
    edited May 2015
    Mr. W, I'm sorry to hear that, but all things must come to an end*, and you did a damned sight better than the professionals. All hail the ARSE of JackW!

    *Hopefully temporary, in this case.

    Mr. Charles, if that's the case, I hope the ban can be temporary.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sky: Chris Leslie to be new shadow chancellor
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Best wishes JackW.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    edited May 2015
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Why has the BBC news main item since lunchtime been "Sturgeon bursting with pride"?

    1) Is this news?

    2) Has nothing else happened in the world?

    Amusing more than annoying but still

    They're in denial. I'd quite like to see the BBC wound up, but actually it's more amusing to watch them pretend that they are politically neutral.
    I imagine when the shock of the result finally wears off, they will be crapping themselves at the thought of what's about to happen to their budget.

    How popular would a 50% cut in the telly tax be, it's one of the most regressive taxes out there?
    Yep you were right - awful result for the BBC. The license fee may well be scrapped... it's exactly the sort of thing that middle class lefties love and actually punishes very tight up working class.

    The best the BBC can hope for is for it to go up with inflation. Could be a forlorn hope though.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,157
    edited May 2015
    JackW said:

    Good Evening PBers

    Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.

    That time has come.

    Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.

    In the recent parlance of PB :

    JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.

    Please accept my best wishes. [Edited to remove unintentional possibly offensive joke.]
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Chris Leslie to be new shadow chancellor

    Damn. I looked at that market and didn't place the bet
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    JackW said:

    Good Evening PBers

    Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.

    That time has come.

    Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.

    In the recent parlance of PB :

    JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.

    All the best wishes JackW, you utter legend.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Amazing; Sky News says Labour hasn't got the exact procedure in place yet for their new leadership election rules. Haven't they had five years to do that?
This discussion has been closed.