I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
While Dave's slim majority provides a temporary illusion of unity on the right, is that really going to last through an EU referendum (with Dave campaigning pro-EU) and into 2020?
The knives really came out for dave over the past year and the right had a taste of what its like to be screwed over by FPTP - the assumption that PR would automatically favour the left has been called into question by a substantial chunk of the governing party.
The big open question for 2015 is what happens to the UKIP score after an EU referendum, assuming it happens. Assuming an "in" vote, are they defeated and fade away, or do they get a boost from all the resentful voters on the losing "out" side who reckon they were robbed by Cameron? And if it's "out", has their reason to exist disappeared, or can they run on Cameron's betrayal in subsequent negotiations?
It depends I suspect on how close the vote is. If its incredibly close then they'll benefit like the SNP with a view that "just one more push" will see them over the line next time.
If its a clear margin of victory then I think they are defeated and fade away. Like the Lib Dems and their beloved AV referendum.
Personally I suspect it'll be 2:1 in favour of Stay In and that out will be comprehensively defeated and fade away.
Pulpstar Depends how many gains Labour make and how much the LDs recover under, say, Tim Farron
If they have any sense they'll go for Lamb. Differentiate.
Mature, but not a coffin-dodger (sorry, Ming)
Anyone, other than a graduate from the All-Party School for Apparatchiks...
There's only 7 Lib Dems left who can replace Nick, assuming Nick won't do a Farage and stand again to replace himself. Are there any coffin dodgers left?
Is there a list somewhere as to who the remaining Lib Dems are and how solid (or weak) their remaining majorities are?
PT You will be lucky, yougov today has a 9 point In lead, already less than No won by in indyref, if it gets any narrower UKIP will of course be able to cry 'betrayal' in any narrow In vote, especially if Cameron leads the In side, night
Lamb is too tied to Clegg, I personally would prefer him to Farron, but from a tactical point of view the LDs have to run as far from Clegg and the Coalition as possible if they are going to regain some of those who voted for them in 2005 and 2010 or even in the eighties and nineties and hence some of their lost seats, Farron is their only choice on that score, night
Too sophisticated an analysis. Already over the head of 99% of the voters.
Lamb, although not ideal, could galvanize some. A bit of a Grimond, if you please.
Farron? Meh. A hand-wringing, bed-wetting, too-nice-by-half bloke. The LD's Miliband?
RC Farron is the only senior LD who clearly kept himself out of the coalition and opposed austerity, Lamb will easily be tied to the coalition by Labour and the SNP and the Greens, he was in effect Clegg's right hand man. Grimond's Liberals won 6 seats in 1959, 9 seats in 1964 and 12 in 1966 so if they want to stay in a taxi cab Lamb may be the man
RC Farron is the only senior LD who clearly kept himself out of the coalition and opposed austerity, Lamb will easily be tied to the coalition by Labour and the SNP and the Greens, he was in effect Clegg's right hand man.
Who cares? In 5 years no-one will remember the coalition.
Farron will be the LDs answer to Miliband. Disastrous...
The voters who deserted the LDs post 2010 for Labour and the Greens and the SNP will, they are who the LDs need to win back. Farron, unlike Miliband, does not need to win a majority, just recapture some of the soft left voters who Ashdown and Kennedy won and Clegg won in 2010, any other alternative will see them continue to have enough MPs for 1 taxi alone, but that is up to them, tactically if they pick Lamb they will stay on 5-10 seats or so, goodnight
Pulpstar Depends how many gains Labour make and how much the LDs recover under, say, Tim Farron
If they have any sense they'll go for Lamb. Differentiate.
Mature, but not a coffin-dodger (sorry, Ming)
Anyone, other than a graduate from the All-Party School for Apparatchiks...
There's only 7 Lib Dems left who can replace Nick, assuming Nick won't do a Farage and stand again to replace himself. Are there any coffin dodgers left?
Is there a list somewhere as to who the remaining Lib Dems are and how solid (or weak) their remaining majorities are?
From most vulnerable to safest I'd go:
Carshalton 3.2% Conservative Southport 3% Conservative North Norfolk 8.2% Conservative Ceredigion 8.2% Plaid Hallam 4.2% Labour; 26.4% Conservative Leeds NW 6.7% Labour, 18.2% Conservative Orkney and Shetland 3.6% SNP Westmorland and Lonsdale 18.3% Conservative
They could all go next GE except maybe Farron.
The majority over the Conservatives in Hallam this time round is very very inflated. Its very interesting next time round. Could be a Con gain.
The voters who deserted the LDs post 2010 for Labour and the Greens and the SNP will, they are who the LDs need to win back. Farron, unlike Miliband, does not need to win a majority, just recapture some of the soft left voters who Ashdown and Kennedy won and Clegg won in 2010, any other alternative will see them continue to have enough MPs for 1 taxi alone, but that is up to them, tactically if they pick Lamb they will stay on 5-10 seats or so, goodnight
Well I speak as someone who wishes the party well, and voted for them on Thursday.
Farron would probably make me reconsider that. Ineffable lightweight.
RC The LDs got barely more than 1/3 of the votes they won in 2010 on Thursday, appealing as you are Rod I think they need to try and recapture the 2/3 of voters they lost, not hold onto your vote or try and recapture the glories of Grimond, who in 2/3 of the elections he led the Liberals won less than 10 seats, and now it really is goodnight
RC The LDs got barely more than 1/3 of the votes they won in 2010 on Thursday, appealing as you are Rod I think they need to try and recapture the 2/3 of voters they lost, not hold onto your vote or try and recapture the glories of Grimond, who in 2/3 of the elections he led the Liberals won less than 10 seats, and now it really is goodnight
Those voters are gone. What reason is there to assume they'd come back under a leadership change.
Given this election ended with a slim majority and governments normally lose, not gain, seats; further given that Labour are now starting so far behind and don't have Scotland ... the overwhelming favourite for the next election's result has to be a Hung Parliament again. The Lib Dems could ride two horses before appealing to centre left and centre right voters to stop the other one. "Only LD can stop .... here"
The question that the new LD leader needs to answer is: will you go back into coalition with the Conservatives? If they say no then all the "vote LD to beat Labour" Tory-leaners are gone. If they say yes, Labour-leaners (and greens etc) who "vote LD to beat the Tories" are gone.
Either way its a very difficult and consequential decision the new leader has to make.
Labour’s leadership of former special advisers does not look like the people it wants to represent and does not look as if it likes the look of them either. In this, it is typical of the wider educated left in England, which almost alone in the world, makes a virtue of denigrating its own people.
The universities, left press, and the arts characterise the English middle-class as Mail-reading misers, who are sexist, racist and homophobic to boot. Meanwhile, they characterise the white working class as lardy Sun-reading slobs, who are, since you asked, also sexist, racist and homophobic. The national history is reduced to one long imperial crime, and the notion that the English are not such a bad bunch with many strong radical traditions worth preserving is rejected as risibly complacent. So tainted and untrustworthy are they that they must be told what they can say and how they should behave.
PT The LDs lost most of their 2010 votes a few months after the election, yes a few LDs went to the Tories or UKIP, but most went to Labour and the Greens and the SNP in Scotland, so they have to make a leftwards shift to regain them, end of. That really is my final comment, night
A question for the insomniac anoraks amongst us. Which were the three seats the Tories didn't stand in this year. One is obviously Buckingham, what are the other two?
A question for the insomniac anoraks amongst us. Which were the three seats the Tories didn't stand in this year. One is obviously Buckingham, what are the other two?
A question for the insomniac anoraks amongst us. Which were the three seats the Tories didn't stand in this year. One is obviously Buckingham, what are the other two?
Some months ago I privately advised Mike & Robert Smithson that I would, in the near future, for health reasons have to leave PB for an indeterminate period.
That time has come.
Should I recover I would hope to return in due course, alternatively an appropriate announcement will be placed on the site.
In the recent parlance of PB :
JWWNBCIHRTPB - JackW Will Never Be Crap If He Returns To Political Betting.
Perhaps we have learnt from you and Rod Crosby that pollsters can never hope to accurately capture that moment alone in the polling booth with the ballot paper and the stubby pencil. The moment of decision; how will this affect me, my family, my country, my employer, have the Gov't really screwed up badly?, would the alternative be any better?
Comments
If its a clear margin of victory then I think they are defeated and fade away. Like the Lib Dems and their beloved AV referendum.
Personally I suspect it'll be 2:1 in favour of Stay In and that out will be comprehensively defeated and fade away.
Is there a list somewhere as to who the remaining Lib Dems are and how solid (or weak) their remaining majorities are?
Lamb, although not ideal, could galvanize some. A bit of a Grimond, if you please.
Farron? Meh. A hand-wringing, bed-wetting, too-nice-by-half bloke. The LD's Miliband?
Farron will be the LDs answer to Miliband. Disastrous...
Carshalton 3.2% Conservative
Southport 3% Conservative
North Norfolk 8.2% Conservative
Ceredigion 8.2% Plaid
Hallam 4.2% Labour; 26.4% Conservative
Leeds NW 6.7% Labour, 18.2% Conservative
Orkney and Shetland 3.6% SNP
Westmorland and Lonsdale 18.3% Conservative
They could all go next GE except maybe Farron.
The majority over the Conservatives in Hallam this time round is very very inflated. Its very interesting next time round. Could be a Con gain.
Farron would probably make me reconsider that. Ineffable lightweight.
"March to the sound of gunfire!"
You/We/They need a Grimond....
Given this election ended with a slim majority and governments normally lose, not gain, seats; further given that Labour are now starting so far behind and don't have Scotland ... the overwhelming favourite for the next election's result has to be a Hung Parliament again. The Lib Dems could ride two horses before appealing to centre left and centre right voters to stop the other one. "Only LD can stop .... here"
The question that the new LD leader needs to answer is: will you go back into coalition with the Conservatives? If they say no then all the "vote LD to beat Labour" Tory-leaners are gone. If they say yes, Labour-leaners (and greens etc) who "vote LD to beat the Tories" are gone.
Either way its a very difficult and consequential decision the new leader has to make.
The universities, left press, and the arts characterise the English middle-class as Mail-reading misers, who are sexist, racist and homophobic to boot. Meanwhile, they characterise the white working class as lardy Sun-reading slobs, who are, since you asked, also sexist, racist and homophobic. The national history is reduced to one long imperial crime, and the notion that the English are not such a bad bunch with many strong radical traditions worth preserving is rejected as risibly complacent. So tainted and untrustworthy are they that they must be told what they can say and how they should behave.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/labour-left-miliband-hating-english
2015 Effective Government seats: 341
The money next time would surely have to be on a minority Conservative Gov't with tacit support from the unionists in N Ire ?
2015 Tory seats 330
Not sure that Labour should even bother contesting the next election.
Which is the Lib Dem top Conservative target now ? - Carshalton is obviously very vulnerable at 2020
Sorry that was 2010
BNP 33rd, a touch behind "Poole people"
I hope you recover soon. Best wishes.