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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON moves to 9% lead in first GE2020 poll.
Survation have CON 9% ahead in first poll of GE2020 pic.twitter.com/Cdk86uAUwV
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This is a wind up right? Who the f##k pays for this 2 days after a GE?
Also...Have just spat my drink out over my keyboard....
https://twitter.com/mlilleker/status/5970992619820769280 -
LOL0
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Is the methodology the same? Or different weightings now being applied?0
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I demand a recount - was it weighted for shy Labour?0
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So maybe 16% ahead in reality?0
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Cameron needs to call another election!!0
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Does anybody know of an Excel spreadsheet with the results by constituency?0
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Applying my shy Tory/Lazy Labour filter this is in fact a Tory lead of 15%0
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No need to be a shy Tory now...0
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Based on the last few weeks the real lead is ? Answers to the BPC before they do the review.
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Is this the one for 2015 that they supressed? Allegedly because they did not believe it.....0
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Err, is this a very late poll for GE2015, or a very early poll for GE2020?0
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Anymore leads like this and suddenly the polling industry will be a highly rate one, on PB.0
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Enjoy PB Tories - that's your last good threadheader till 2020 0
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FU/SimonSTClare/Sandpit /Charles/MD (Last thread) Obama and Blair are both slippery and metropolitan ex lawyers, both won, so what?0
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I think we can ignore this insane outlier.
EICIPM.0 -
Lovely...I suppose it is very easy to write crap like that from your dorm room of an extremely expensive American University....TGOHF said:@PennyRed: I don't have a problem with this. The bravery of past generations does not oblige us to be cowed today. https://t.co/QS6Oq55n5q
Penny on graffiti on War memorials.0 -
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Everybody loves a winner.0
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Oh dear, don't tell Charlotte Church ...... she'll be "mad as hell".0
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In the grand traditions of The Deal and Coalition, next election will surely be preceded by When Ed Met Russell.Flightpathl said:
If it is true then it shows how bad Labour's polling was and/or that it was Ed and Labour who were really 'out of touch' and not the Eton toff Cameron and Tories.Dair said:I have no idea how much of this article to trust.
But it is truly juicy. There will be some excellent stories from this campaign.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3074175/Ed-writing-victory-speech-came-exit-poll-ANDREW-PIERCE-reflects-catastrophic-night-Labour-leader.html
Also I see the Mail strenuously pointing out that Miliband does not simply live in Doncaster but has a ''detached constituency home in a pretty south Yorkshire village''.
I must admit that you do a good service pointing me to this article because I honestly try not to read the Daily Mail. It says that 'Oxford academic' (whoever realised that the term could be so condescending?) Lord Wood ''dreamed up Miliband’s meaningless and forgettable slogans such as the ‘predistribution’ of wealth ''. No wonder labour lost!
Pity they did not study predestination more.
It is all the stuff of priceless drama doccumentary. ''When Ed Met... (insert suitable name here)''0 -
So opinion polls are very good at coming up with results that coincide with elections that have already taken place?0
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This poll is about as useful as a May 1992 one showing John Major romping home at the 1997 election, Panelbase would be better to save its money for a few weeks and spend it investigating where it got its forecasts wrong, then come out with a new first poll after the necessary adjustments have been made0
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Ha. It's like that episode in The Simpson when Russia reveals it's really the Soviet Union.
"Vote Labour? That's just what we wanted you to think! Mwahahaha!"0 -
Isn't that what this is? If this is based on their old weighting/methodologies, surely the Tories must be much higherHYUFD said:This poll is about as useful as a May 1992 one showing John Major romping home at the 1997 election, Panelbase would be better to save its money for a few weeks and spend it investigating where it got its forecasts wrong, then come out with a new first poll after the necessary adjustments have been made
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FPT I don't see either Stella Creasey or Chuka Umunna as leadership material. John Cruddas excepted, no one who's based in London has a clue how to win over Middle England and Wales.0
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broken sleazy Labour on the slide ?0
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I bumped into @Richard_Nabavi at the celebration drinkies in Eastbourne earlier. Wot a small world it is.
Caroline Ansell is delightful as the new MP - hope she gets a Ministerial job in education before too long. One to watch me thinks.0 -
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LOL - I assume the Mail on Sunday have some sort of contract and didn't think to exclude this weekend. Alternately they ordered it when they were expecting a hung Parliament, in which case maybe it might have had some use.
Any reason they don't show changes on their last poll, apart from the pollster trying to avoid his own embarrassment?0 -
Given some accuracy in the final polls regarding the minor parties then this is indicating a further fall in Lib Dem support (and this really would not surprise me.
Also indicative of a further rise in SNP support. Which again I would expect as any "anyone but the Tories" voter will be deserting their previous options to vote SNP.0 -
LOL!
I've had quite enough of these polls for the next few weeks...0 -
Pretty sure Surviation did say they would continue polling post election, but of what real value it is now, rather than in a hung parliment position is anyones guess0
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Frank Field would be amazing, but I understand he's hated - hardly surprising for someone who talks sense in the Labour party.Sean_F said:FPT I don't see either Stella Creasey or Chuka Umunna as leadership material. John Cruddas excepted, no one who's based in London has a clue how to win over Middle England and Wales.
Oh, and apropos of nothing, I think Diane Abbot would make a great Speaker of the HOC.0 -
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Relax, lets just hope labour continue to listen to people like Red Penny and Owen Jones.Plato said:I despair at times
https://twitter.com/AFrankWords/status/597119268606578689
They'll be in opposition for ever if they do.0 -
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I assume her account has been hacked. Otherwise she's finished.Plato said:I despair at times
https://twitter.com/AFrankWords/status/5971192686065786890 -
I'm a shy kipper. I look out over one of the busiest rail links in London. I could have had four foot high U K I P letters in my windows seen by thousands every day, but I don't people scrawling over my door and pissing through my letter box which is definitely what would have happened. UKIP got about 3% in my constituency and to admit voting UKIP at work would be a career-stopper. .jayfdee said:0 -
CON moves to 9% lead in first GE2020 poll.
Apart from entertainment value, is this the most pointless poll ever commissioned ?0 -
A good rule of thumb for winning an election now is to run against London, like running against Washington.Luckyguy1983 said:
Frank Field would be amazing, but I understand he's hated - hardly surprising for someone who talks sense in the Labour party.Sean_F said:FPT I don't see either Stella Creasey or Chuka Umunna as leadership material. John Cruddas excepted, no one who's based in London has a clue how to win over Middle England and Wales.
Oh, and apropos of nothing, I think Diane Abbot would make a great Speaker of the HOC.0 -
Looks like SNP flat-lining to meDair said:Given some accuracy in the final polls regarding the minor parties then this is indicating a further fall in Lib Dem support (and this really would not surprise me.
Also indicative of a further rise in SNP support. Which again I would expect as any "anyone but the Tories" voter will be deserting their previous options to vote SNP. 0 -
And these people wonder why they didn't get enough votes.Plato said:I despair at times
https://twitter.com/AFrankWords/status/5971192686065786890 -
RobD Indeed, but it is not that different to get a poll result reflecting an election 2 days ago, no polling company can have done a full research exercise into what they got wrong in that time0
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After the fall of Berlin: no one was a Nazi, knew a Nazi, or had ever met a Nazi.
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http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/labour-left-miliband-hating-english
'A friend made the point when he told me that at 8.30am on Friday, when Ed Balls lost his seat, the trading floor at Credit Suisse at Canary Wharf erupted with cheers. I don’t doubt there were similar yelps of delight on every other trading floor in the City.'
Brilliant, just brilliant....
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SeanF Cruddas represents leftwing populism, which may win back a few wwc voters from UKIP but not many more. As I said in the last thread it is the suburban middle classes Blair won who Labour need to win back0
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No, you're thinking of the ones commissioned prior to the 2015 electionSimonStClare said:CON moves to 9% lead in first GE2020 poll.
Apart from entertainment value, is this the most pointless poll ever commissioned ? 0 -
Changes on their last poll
Con +7, Lab -3, UKIP -4, LD -3
Lab collapsing after Ed quits.
BRING BACK ED!0 -
May2015 aren't including it.MonikerDiCanio said:I think we can ignore this insane outlier.
EICIPM.0 -
Crossover0
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Arf - good point well made SirRobD said:
No, you're thinking of the ones commissioned prior to the 2015 electionSimonStClare said:CON moves to 9% lead in first GE2020 poll.
Apart from entertainment value, is this the most pointless poll ever commissioned ? 0 -
LOL
Slackbladder said:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/labour-left-miliband-hating-english
'A friend made the point when he told me that at 8.30am on Friday, when Ed Balls lost his seat, the trading floor at Credit Suisse at Canary Wharf erupted with cheers. I don’t doubt there were similar yelps of delight on every other trading floor in the City.'
Brilliant, just brilliant....0 -
FPT
I agree with Kendal - good thinker. Umunna reminds me too much of African politicians I used to meet in sub-Saharan Africa when working on World Bank projects. They were too proud of their own importance, looked down on their fellow Africans as inferior and treated them almost as slaves and all had a healthy Swiss Bank Account.
Labour needs leaders with the width of thought like Hoey and Field and have a similar backgrounds - not sure where they will find them0 -
OKaaayPlato said:
That's like recording University Challenge and watching it back with friends pretending you haven't seen it before...0 -
Lol to that as well. But seriously, when can we expect crossover? I'll go for September.welshowl said:Crossover
UKIP to lead Labour in September.0 -
Margin of error of the margin of error movements?... titterTheScreamingEagles said:Changes on their last poll
Con +7, Lab -3, UKIP -4, LD -3
Lab collapsing after Ed quits.
BRING BACK ED!0 -
To be semi-serious - right of centre 52% left of centre 39% Lds/other 8% Result 0
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DIGIPM.0
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Looks like Survation have changed their weightings...0
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Has the official wake finished yet on BBC News?0
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This puts UKIP + Cons at >50%, whereas in the GE they were just under 50%. How much support would UKIP lose if they cosied up to the Cons?TheScreamingEagles said:Changes on their last poll
Con +7, Lab -3, UKIP -4, LD -3
Lab collapsing after Ed quits.
BRING BACK ED!0 -
Miss DiCanio, it'd be nice if 'twere so, but I doubt it.0
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What would Basil think....EICIPM?0
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Financier Many of those African leaders also won elections, even Mugabe, and Umunna is no more pompous than Obama. Umunna would need the advice of field and Hoey but thinkers do not win elections, just ask John Kerry, Michael Ignatieff or, indeed, Ed Miliband0
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True anecdote. After taking down a LibDem poster from my window in OxWAb after 1992 I found a neat hole in the window made by an air rifle pellet...Blueberry said:
I'm a shy kipper. I look out over one of the busiest rail links in London. I could have had four foot high U K I P letters in my windows seen by thousands every day, but I don't people scrawling over my door and pissing through my letter box which is definitely what would have happened. UKIP got about 3% in my constituency and to admit voting UKIP at work would be a career-stopper. .jayfdee said:0 -
Plenty of material to keep us entertained until the next election.Tissue_Price said:0 -
Early in...front page of tomorrow's Guardian...
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/unnamed1-330x440.jpg0 -
Have they sacked Andrew Marr yet? He was virtually in tears as the Scottish results came in. Embarrassing stuff.FrancisUrquhart said:Has the official wake finished yet on BBC News?
BBC were total crap all night, I gave up like many others. SKY pretty good on a low budget!
(Apols I have no doubt this has all been discussed on here, but I was out of action most of Friday and wife ill in bed all day today so looking after 3 children!)0 -
Can anything constructive be said about this poll?
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This is so true. The posts I've read from left-wing people on Facebook who live in London have both been hysterical, and demonstrated a total lack of self-awareness.Sean_F said:FPT I don't see either Stella Creasey or Chuka Umunna as leadership material. John Cruddas excepted, no one who's based in London has a clue how to win over Middle England and Wales.
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Pure coincidence. They were just trying to shoot you ;-)RodCrosby said:
True anecdote. After taking down a LibDem poster from my window in OxWAb after 1992 I found a neat hole in the window made by an air rifle pellet...Blueberry said:
I'm a shy kipper. I look out over one of the busiest rail links in London. I could have had four foot high U K I P letters in my windows seen by thousands every day, but I don't people scrawling over my door and pissing through my letter box which is definitely what would have happened. UKIP got about 3% in my constituency and to admit voting UKIP at work would be a career-stopper. .jayfdee said:0 -
Has OGH broken into the subsamples yet to explain why this poll is actually good for Labour?0
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Emily Maitlis was ready for breaking down when the coverage started.JonCisBack said:
Have they sacked Andrew Marr yet? He was virtually in tears as the Scottish results came in. Embarrassing stuff.FrancisUrquhart said:Has the official wake finished yet on BBC News?
BBC were total crap all night, I gave up like many others. SKY pretty good on a low budget!
(Apols I have no doubt this has all been discussed on here, but I was out of action most of Friday and wife ill in bed all day today so looking after 3 children!)
I had both on + PB and obviously PB was #1, but Sky was much better than BBC.0 -
Have to agree, what, am i agreeing with a Kipper!. But you make a valid point,in my working days I was the subject of much intimidation, including hate mail and death threats, accusations I was causing cancers, and birth deformities etc.Blueberry said:
I'm a shy kipper. I look out over one of the busiest rail links in London. I could have had four foot high U K I P letters in my windows seen by thousands every day, but I don't people scrawling over my door and pissing through my letter box which is definitely what would have happened. UKIP got about 3% in my constituency and to admit voting UKIP at work would be a career-stopper. .jayfdee said:
I prefer a low profile life now.
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Re. Stephen Kinnock MP (to whom my congratulations, this is not aimed at his circumstances, I'm merely carrying the principle to its logical conclusion).
Are there any 'conflict of interest' regulations that deal with close personal relationships with foreign government officials?
Suppose one were in high office & taking despatch boxes home to where a foreign gov. official has free access?
The very end of that line would be quite beneficial - PM of one country married to PM of another should make for very good relations between the countries (as long as the personal relationship stayed OK).
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There will shortly be an election in which the Conservatives will increase their majority.TheScreamingEagles said:Changes on their last poll
Con +7, Lab -3, UKIP -4, LD -3
Lab collapsing after Ed quits.
BRING BACK ED!0 -
He'll be explaining why tories need more of swing to obtain a majority.Casino_Royale said:Has OGH broken into the subsamples yet to explain why this poll is actually good for Labour?
Sorry...couldn't resist0 -
I suppose it does give continuty. At some point over the next few months up to the end of the year we are going to start wondering again how the parties are doing relative to each other and it is probably useful to have at least one pollster continuing to give a regular output on a weekly basis to see how the changes develop.Slackbladder said:Pretty sure Surviation did say they would continue polling post election, but of what real value it is now, rather than in a hung parliment position is anyones guess
Whether we should actually hold any store by them is a different matter entirely.0 -
Not sure. The poster had Ashdown's face on it...JonCisBack said:
Pure coincidence. They were just trying to shoot you ;-)RodCrosby said:
True anecdote. After taking down a LibDem poster from my window in OxWAb after 1992 I found a neat hole in the window made by an air rifle pellet...Blueberry said:
I'm a shy kipper. I look out over one of the busiest rail links in London. I could have had four foot high U K I P letters in my windows seen by thousands every day, but I don't people scrawling over my door and pissing through my letter box which is definitely what would have happened. UKIP got about 3% in my constituency and to admit voting UKIP at work would be a career-stopper. .jayfdee said:0 -
Yeah, she was not happy!FrancisUrquhart said:
Emily Maitlis was ready for breaking down when the coverage started.JonCisBack said:
Have they sacked Andrew Marr yet? He was virtually in tears as the Scottish results came in. Embarrassing stuff.FrancisUrquhart said:Has the official wake finished yet on BBC News?
BBC were total crap all night, I gave up like many others. SKY pretty good on a low budget!
(Apols I have no doubt this has all been discussed on here, but I was out of action most of Friday and wife ill in bed all day today so looking after 3 children!)
I had both on + PB and obviously PB was #1, but Sky was much better than BBC.0 -
I just snorted there - brilliant.Tissue_Price said:
ttps://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/567327091495272448
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Leanne Wood and PC generally must be wondering what they've done wrong.
They see the SNP carrying all before them but in Wales they don't gain Ynys Monn from Labour and they don't gain Ceredigon from the LibDems.
Meanwhile the Conservatives make three Welsh gains and UKIP picks up disaffected LAbour supporters in the Valley and north-east Wales.
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A very good article - the point about favoured minorities clearly struck a chord with the writer. The luvvies will hate the whole thing.Slackbladder said:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/labour-left-miliband-hating-english
'A friend made the point when he told me that at 8.30am on Friday, when Ed Balls lost his seat, the trading floor at Credit Suisse at Canary Wharf erupted with cheers. I don’t doubt there were similar yelps of delight on every other trading floor in the City.'
Brilliant, just brilliant....0 -
To be honest, I want to see more Scotland polling, Holyrood next year is the next major polling event/alongside the London Mayoral election.0
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Yes, excepting Obama (who is not an African leader), most of the African leaders I met (except John Kufor of Ghana) won due to a mixture of corruption, bribery and threats. I would not nominate Mugabe as a clean operator. I mentioned wide thinkers as the last lot of Labour evidently were not and probably did not want to be seen as such.HYUFD said:Financier Many of those African leaders also won elections, even Mugabe, and Umunna is no more pompous than Obama. Umunna would need the advice of field and Hoey but thinkers do not win elections, just ask John Kerry, Michael Ignatieff or, indeed, Ed Miliband
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The work of a Thorpe irredentist.RodCrosby said:
Not sure. The poster had Ashdown's face on it...JonCisBack said:
Pure coincidence. They were just trying to shoot you ;-)RodCrosby said:
True anecdote. After taking down a LibDem poster from my window in OxWAb after 1992 I found a neat hole in the window made by an air rifle pellet...Blueberry said:
I'm a shy kipper. I look out over one of the busiest rail links in London. I could have had four foot high U K I P letters in my windows seen by thousands every day, but I don't people scrawling over my door and pissing through my letter box which is definitely what would have happened. UKIP got about 3% in my constituency and to admit voting UKIP at work would be a career-stopper. .jayfdee said:0 -
Yeah, as much as we joke about it, having the continuity definitely helps. Like how MORI keeps asking the same question regarding issues facing the country.Richard_Tyndall said:
I suppose it does give continuty. At some point over the next few months up to the end of the year we are going to start wondering again how the parties are doing relative to each other and it is probably useful to have at least one pollster continuing to give a regular output on a weekly basis to see how the changes develop.Slackbladder said:Pretty sure Surviation did say they would continue polling post election, but of what real value it is now, rather than in a hung parliment position is anyones guess
Whether we should actually hold any store by them is a different matter entirely.0 -
LOLRodCrosby said:
Not sure. The poster had Ashdown's face on it...JonCisBack said:
Pure coincidence. They were just trying to shoot you ;-)RodCrosby said:
True anecdote. After taking down a LibDem poster from my window in OxWAb after 1992 I found a neat hole in the window made by an air rifle pellet...Blueberry said:
I'm a shy kipper. I look out over one of the busiest rail links in London. I could have had four foot high U K I P letters in my windows seen by thousands every day, but I don't people scrawling over my door and pissing through my letter box which is definitely what would have happened. UKIP got about 3% in my constituency and to admit voting UKIP at work would be a career-stopper. .jayfdee said:
Back in those days LD posters were rife. Based on poster count the LDs looked like they would win my parents' seat by 3:1ish. Tory majority 21K in the end...0 -
Mr. Eagles, isn't the Welsh Assembly before Holyrood? I think I heard Farage saying he reckoned UKIP could make advances there.0
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Labour surging ahead in BootleCasino_Royale said:Has OGH broken into the subsamples yet to explain why this poll is actually good for Labour?
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Greens have been hammered in Brighton and Hove, down 10 seats.0
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Do you remember what happened when Preston North End sacked Darren Ferguson? Manchester United recalled the players they had loan there. Nothing personal, of course.AnneJGP said:Re. Stephen Kinnock MP (to whom my congratulations, this is not aimed at his circumstances, I'm merely carrying the principle to its logical conclusion).
Are there any 'conflict of interest' regulations that deal with close personal relationships with foreign government officials?
Suppose one were in high office & taking despatch boxes home to where a foreign gov. official has free access?
The very end of that line would be quite beneficial - PM of one country married to PM of another should make for very good relations between the countries (as long as the personal relationship stayed OK).0
