politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so now we turn to leader resignations triggering off ma

How did the retread strategy do? I know about npxmp and Stroud stayed Tory.

couldn't sleep... please let the tories get 326 during his speech.. that'd be glorious

Moses_ said:

I have to say I am very sad to see Nick CLegg resign.

In 2010 He and the lib dems made a massive decision to join a coalition which they stood by for the entire 5 years. They did what they had to do and they for once put the country before the party and themselves.

That alone should and must never be forgotten. History will judge them kindly even though the ballot boxes were quite cruel.


Well done Nick I hope that this is not the last we see off you. I say the same about Danny Alexander.

Well said

Labour holds Luton South taking them to 230 seats:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000801

So after SINDYRef we can add GE2015 to the victims of GOTV hubris.....

Clarke is the history not the future. I'm a Conservative that supported Clarke in 2001 and wants an In vote, but we can't resist a referendum now. Its time to hold a vote and let the public decide, if they decide out then so be it. I think the party will respect the public's choice and we'll have a line in the sand drawn.

scotslass said:

Alanbrooke

56 out of 59. Get used to it. The NATS won huge and Salmond's back virtue of the people of Gordon. Ho Ho Ho.

how's that holding the balance of power going for you ?

Ed giving in to your demands ?

https://twitter.com/paulcotswolds/status/596606584320618496

Ed looks utterly shell shocked...

Only Brutus regrets stabbing a family member more than Ed Miliband.

Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio.....

Dan Hodges - Balls of Steel

Alanbrooke said:

scotslass said:

Alanbrooke

56 out of 59. Get used to it. The NATS won huge and Salmond's back virtue of the people of Gordon. Ho Ho Ho.

how's that holding the balance of power going for you ?

Ed giving in to your demands ?

Is Eck drafting Osborne's budget?

"Yes - Labour's Liverpool redoubt - hope they can find a seat for her PDQ - or might Cameron bring her into the Lords? She only lost narrowly..... " CarlottaVance

Hope she come back to the Commons. she is a fighter. Having seen the vandalism and abuse heaped on her I can understand why the welfare system remained unreformed for so long and we ended up with record numbers of children brought up in households where no one had ever worked.

Barnesian said:

Just emerging bleary-eyed after a nap after a very long night. Just in time for Clegg's resignation statement followed quickly by Ed's.

I've learned that complex computer models based solely on polls are useless. Rubbish in - rubbish out!

Had six winning bets (Clegg to go in 2015, Watford Con, Richmond Park Con, Kingston Con, Lab seats in Scot, Brighton Pav Green) but two big losers (Lab minority gov and Lab most seats). About £200 down.

Ironically my investment in Berkeley Homes Group has risen by £6000 this morning now the threat of mansion tax has gone. A small consolation.

Mine were mostly arbs. or else well-hedged; e.g., Labour most seats plus a series of Tory seat bets. Many thanks to Antifrank for the advice on his blog and this forum, and Pulpstar.

I agree about the computer models. One of them predicted that Colchester, Eastbourne and Eastleigh were all 100% safe. Ha ha!

CarlottaVance said:

Alanbrooke said:

scotslass said:

Alanbrooke

56 out of 59. Get used to it. The NATS won huge and Salmond's back virtue of the people of Gordon. Ho Ho Ho.

how's that holding the balance of power going for you ?

Ed giving in to your demands ?

Is Eck drafting Osborne's budget?

5 years of neutered rage ahoy !

so no different than the last Parliment.

@IsabelHardman: Very good speech by Miliband. Message to party was: please get on with it and don’t split.

Except the new leader will unilaterally discard Milibandism in all its forms

Sam Cam's looking great.

HurstLlama said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sorry to see Clegg go, he had a tough hand to play and got no thanks for it.

Were it not for his ridiculous U-turn over the boundary changes I might have agreed with you. However, what sort of man makes a speech in favour of something then votes against it when the time comes? Politics will be better for his departure.

I'm looking forward to my lunch, Mr Llama!

BannedInParis said:

glw said:

A rubbish speech full of the platitudes that typify Miliband. He is certainly no Blair, or even a Brown.

I thought that was all a bit, I dunno, triumphant?

Indeed, all about Labour "achievements". Err, like getting their arses kicked and annihilation in Scotland.

foxinsoxuk said:

Alanbrooke said:

scotslass said:

Alanbrooke

56 out of 59. Get used to it. The NATS won huge and Salmond's back virtue of the people of Gordon. Ho Ho Ho.

how's that holding the balance of power going for you ?

Ed giving in to your demands ?

The prospect of Alex writing the budget was the final nail in Labours coffin. The icing on the cake was the addition of the #edstone.

Now the SNP are going to have to listen as well as speak in order to negotiate a sensible and workable constitutional system with the Conservatives. Being stroppy will just leave them on the sidelines.

better not tell their supporters that.

EPG, one important lesson is that Cameron has won without the right-wing fringe that has gone over to UKIP. He won without them. He doesn't need them. A divided right was supposed to be doomed to defeat. He has shown it is possible to build up sufficient support in the centre-right to get a majority.

The obvious business solution when a large incumbent is losing out to a small, more agile, localized competitor is to buy them out and promote their team. How much would it cost for Labour to acquire the SNP?

edmundintokyo said:

The obvious business solution when a large incumbent is losing out to a small, more agile, localized competitor is to buy them out and promote their team. How much would it cost for Labour to acquire the SNP?

Good idea, but a reverse takeover would work better.

KentRising said:

Sam Cam's looking great.

At least two more years of Sam Cam. Yeeeeeeeeessssss

@EllieCumbo: When does Russell Brand resign?

Have to admire how British parties quickly and cleanly dispose of failed leaders (or they dispose of themselves) and move on, compared to the U.S. Gives real hope for renewal and adaptation.

In the U.S., who leads the House Dems? Nancy Pelosi. Who leads the Senate Dems? Harry Reid. Who's leading the charge to be next president? Hillary who flopped spectacularly in 2008 and Jeb of the unending Bush dynasty.

MarkHopkins said:

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/596623614646026241

Was it Malc?

Purseybear said:

Has anyone got that seats still to declare link again? Sorry.

8 to go:

Overnight count (1): The Cotswolds

Friday count (7): St Ives, Warwick, Kenilworth, Blyth Valley, Wansbeck, Hexham, Berwick.

Scott_P said:

@EllieCumbo: When does Russell Brand resign?

When does Paul O'Grady leave?

Conservatives hold the Cotswolds and have an overall majority.

HYUFD said:

Nemtynacht No, Cameron will be the last Tory PM for a while, Chuka Umunna will succeed him in No 10 in my view although I know many disagree

Chuka vs. Sajid?

AndyJS said:

Conservatives hold The Cotswolds, taking them to 326 seats.

May try to go to bed now... although might stay up for Cam's speech.

May I congratulate and thank all on PB who kept it going last night.

Congratulations also to Antifrank, SO, JackW, RCS100 and any others I've missed who called this right. Commiserations to others: I hope the Labour supporters - BenM, BJO etc will stay.

An absolutely fascinating night and days to come!!! The best election night I can remember since 1992.

I do feel sorry for the LibDems: they did the right thing in 2010 and didn't really deserve this.

The Tories have been like a crocodile, they've smiled broadly, given them a lift across the river and then gobbled them up.

And they seem to have done this to SLAB as well.

A few thoughts:-

1. How will EU leaders react? They will need to take Cameron a lot more seriously now.

2. I hope the Tories will not become hubristic. They are entitled to gloat now - especially Cameron, who must be delighted to have proved himself - but I do hope that they will be magnanimous and gracious in the next 5 years. I echo what Fenster said last night on this.

3. I very much hope those bone-headed EU-obsessed Tories don't ruin things over the next few years. We do not need a rerun of 1992-1997 thank you very much.

4. How to deal with Scotland? A sensible federal solution which recognises that Scotland is to all intents and purposes a separate country is needed.

5. The Tories must not rest on their laurels. Next time they won't face a crap Labour party. They still need to come up with a Conservatism which works for all, for those who are not wealthy or privileged, for those who don't live in London, work in the City, for those in all parts of the country. And they need to do this from now and every day.

6. Labour need to do the hard thinking they've avoided for the last few years about what it means to be a social democratic left of centre party. Sixth-form seminar socialism is not the answer, as Phil Collins put it. Any one of us could come up with better ideas than they have been able to.

7. Galloway, Livingstone and their ilk need to be tied to that tombstone and sent somewhere so far away that we will never hear of them again.

The best video of the day?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQ6TgaPJcR0

Tories hold Cotswolds , now officially a Tory majority

Nemtynakht said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Meanwhile, back to business.

Clearly the assumptions most punters have been making about Next Tory Leader have changed dramatically, but the odds haven't yet changed as attention is focused elsewhere.

Sajid Javid at 12/1.

If the Tories don't go for him for next leader then they are idiots. Comprehensive educated self made man who grew up in one of the toughest areas of bristol. Apart from the banking he has got the perfect story.

The guy who tipped Lab 226-250 in the Post pullout also tipped that. Draw your own conclusions.

StarzandStrypz said:

Have to admire how British parties quickly and cleanly dispose of failed leaders (or they dispose of themselves) and move on, compared to the U.S. Gives real hope for renewal and adaptation.

In the U.S., who leads the House Dems? Nancy Pelosi. Who leads the Senate Dems? Harry Reid. Who's leading the charge to be next president? Hillary who flopped spectacularly in 2008 and Jeb of the unending Bush dynasty.

The voters did a pretty through de-dynastificiation job, too. Ended the career of the younger Miliband, booted out half the Balls-Cooper family, fended off Will Straw. The only black mark is Neil Kinnock's son - pity Labour couldn't put up his wife instead.

Fernando said:

EPG, one important lesson is that Cameron has won without the right-wing fringe that has gone over to UKIP. He won without them. He doesn't need them. A divided right was supposed to be doomed to defeat. He has shown it is possible to build up sufficient support in the centre-right to get a majority.

Couldn't agree more Fernando. I have longed for this day for years.

The Tories have confounded the polls to finish with a majority for the first time in 23 years yet I can't help but feel sad.

Listening to Clegg's resignation 'If our losses today are part-payment for every family that is more secure because of a job we helped create, every person with depression who is treated with the compassion they deserve, every child who does a little better in school, every apprentice with a long and rewarding career to look forward to, every gay couple who know their love is worth no less than everyone else's, and every pensioner with a little more freedom and dignity in retirement, then I hope our losses can be endured with a little selfless dignity.' combined with this tweet (https://mobile.twitter.com/IainDale/status/596626820398723072) makes me feel that we've made a terrible mistake in destroying the Lib Dems and that history will remember Cleggy as the best PM we never had.

Even with Miliband he seems to have been at ease and even made a few decent jokes.

A true emotional rollercoaster.

SKY: CONSERVATIVES WIN A MAJORITY

Wow, just wow.

What's still left to declare?

foxinsoxuk said:

EPG said:

Fernando said:

EPG, one important lesson is that Cameron has won without the right-wing fringe that has gone over to UKIP. He won without them. He doesn't need them. A divided right was supposed to be doomed to defeat. He has shown it is possible to build up sufficient support in the centre-right to get a majority.

But all analysts agree that Tory Ukippers went home to save England from Scotland, while northern Ukippers quit Labour.

Frankly the analysts have demonstrated pretty decisively in the last 24 hours that they know and understand very little.

more importantly the electorate was nowhere near as stupid as Labour hoped they would be.

I take comfort in that.