politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is turning into a truly terrible night for the Lib Dem

Tories take Portsmouth south

Good. Hated that smarmey bastard.

Scott_P said:

@itvnews: CON Gain Thornbury & Yate Steve Webb out #GE2015

@JohnRentoul: The SNP carries all before it, but Salmond's dream of amending Labour Budgets line by line has gone.

Hell yes!!

Tories hold Erewash with increased majority of 3,584:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000695

LD have held Somerton and Frome tenaciously in the last 3 elections with a majority of around 1000 every time

Con gain with majority of 20,270

TWENTY THOUSAND

So Wells is gone, Taunton, the Cornwall seats, and all teh Devon seats as well surely?? Must be Tory 330 seats total, no?

Looks like Only hope for another LD hold is Norfolk N isn;t it?

Philip_Thompson said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

@britainelects: Mark Reckless looks to have lost in Rochester and Strood.

THE TPD IS OUT!

What does TPD stand for?

Traitorous Pig Dog

Boy oh boy, is there going to be some post-mortem in the labour party this summer.

Piss poor effort from Cameron only 35000 ;-)

FrancisUrquhart said:

Piss poor effort from Cameron only 35000 ;-)

Shockingly bad.

@skyelections: Conservative gain #Colchester from Lib Dem #GE2015

Steve Webb - one of the finest Coalition ministers out - Extremely cruel.

I know that Ogh runs a great site but just how wrong has he been on this election .

Speedy said:

Britain Elects @britainelects · 2m 2 minutes ago
Tories expected to be short of a majority by one seat. One.

I don't understand how they could possibly fall short?

Looks like the SNP will have 55 seats, CON 2 seats LAB 1, LD 1 in Scotland.

Dadge said:

BBC projection Con 325 Lab 232

If we end up with 100 more seats than Labour, I'll be happy All that talk about 20 seat gap.. titter.

SquareRoot said:

Someone pinch me these results are unbelievable

MikeL said:

NickPalmer said:

Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

Nick - your posts are always appreciated.

Serious question - why were the polls so wrong?

Did people switch on the day?

Thanks for all the sympathetic posts. It's actually OK - as I said the other day, I've got a great day job and at a personal level I'm relaxed about it. And Rottenborough's quote from Kipling is apt!

Mike, as I said earlier I did smell a rat during the day - in every part of the constituuency, people who'd been promising support just 2-3 days earlier were suddenly declining to comment or even saying openly that they were voting for someone else. A couple of my team wer unwise enough to say "But you promised..." which invariably elicited the response "no I didn't!" The voters involved didn't offer reasons, but my guess is that the economy finally struck home - it had been a persistent theme through the election in a minor key whether the apparent recovery might be put at risk by Labour, and I suspect it flared up as people actually decided how to vote. There were some local factors too (tramworks blamed on the Labour council, and a complex feud over a Labour-led town council).

Anyway, must snatch some sleep before the borough council count. G'night!

TGOHF said:

JackW said:

Vale of Glamorgan comes in for the "JackW Dozen"

What's your running score out of 12 Jack ?

13 seats - 8 hits 1 miss 4 to come.

Colchester falls with ease

LDs will fit in a Vauxhall Zafira

Fenster, the PM just said that he'd help those that need it! This is what we were talking about earlier, no?

kle4 said:

RobD said:

Dadge said:

BBC projection Con 325 Lab 232

If we end up with 100 more seats than Labour, I'll be happy All that talk about 20 seat gap.. titter.

I thought Labour would be 20 ahead at least! Gods I'm thick.

I was thoroughly disheartened this morning.. what with the polls not moving. This has been a spectacular night.

tlg86 said:

So what date will the EU referendum be?

At an undisclosed date sometime next century perhaps.

Recount in Derby North

So...which LD wants to be leader? Carmichael, Brake, Farron...somebody else?

It looks as if the Liberal Democrats have done as well as they did when they last went into coalition with the Tories in the 1930s. Moral of the story: don't sleep with the Conservatives!

Dair said:

Imagine how sad that has to be to one of the three SNP MPs that didnt win

How is BRS looking

I know you are trying Cameron, but any devolution you offer will not be enough for the SNP, and you know it.

Speedy said:

tlg86 said:

So what date will the EU referendum be?

At an undisclosed date sometime next century perhaps.

Would love to see the EU bureaucrats reaction.

NickPalmer said:

Thanks for all the sympathetic posts. It's actually OK - as I said the other day, I've got a great day job and at a personal level I'm relaxed about it. And Rottenborough's quote from Kipling is apt!

Mike, as I said earlier I did smell a rat during the day - in every part of the constituuency, people who'd been promising support just 2-3 days earlier were suddenly declining to comment or even saying openly that they were voting for someone else. A couple of my team wer unwise enough to say "But you promised..." which invariably elicited the response "no I didn't!" The voters involved didn't offer reasons, but my guess is that the economy finally struck home - it had been a persistent theme through the election in a minor key whether the apparent recovery might be put at risk by Labour, and I suspect it flared up as people actually decided how to vote. There were some local factors too (tramworks blamed on the Labour council, and a complex feud over a Labour-led town council).

Anyway, must snatch some sleep before the borough council count. G'night!

Thanks for that feedback - honest as always.

Tories have now overtaken Lab in total votes, and about to do so in total seats

1992 relegated to 2nd place in great shock election nights of our time

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dadge said:

BBC projection Con 325 Lab 232

Douglas my old chap....what can we do for you....

Voting reform?!

Dair said:

Imagine how sad that has to be to one of the three SNP MPs that didnt win

Heh, that is pretty amusing actually. Some gentle teasing from their victorious comrades in good fun I imagine.

ITV prediction:

Con 327
Lab 233
SNP 56
LD 10
UKIP 1
Greens 1
Others 22

Pulpstar said:

Dair said:

Imagine how sad that has to be to one of the three SNP MPs that didnt win

How is BRS looking

Moore has said it's a two-horse race, but he is not one of the horses ...

NickPalmer said:

SquareRoot said:

Someone pinch me these results are unbelievable

MikeL said:

NickPalmer said:

Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

Nick - your posts are always appreciated.

Serious question - why were the polls so wrong?

Did people switch on the day?

Thanks for all the sympathetic posts. It's actually OK - as I said the other day, I've got a great day job and at a personal level I'm relaxed about it. And Rottenborough's quote from Kipling is apt!

Mike, as I said earlier I did smell a rat during the day - in every part of the constituuency, people who'd been promising support just 2-3 days earlier were suddenly declining to comment or even saying openly that they were voting for someone else. A couple of my team wer unwise enough to say "But you promised..." which invariably elicited the response "no I didn't!" The voters involved didn't offer reasons, but my guess is that the economy finally struck home - it had been a persistent theme through the election in a minor key whether the apparent recovery might be put at risk by Labour, and I suspect it flared up as people actually decided how to vote. There were some local factors too (tramworks blamed on the Labour council, and a complex feud over a Labour-led town council).

Anyway, must snatch some sleep before the borough council count. G'night!

Good luck Nick - you are doing vital work in your field.

Letwin holds Dorset W

Life_ina_market_town said:

A referendum on the European Union by December 2017 now looks inevitable.

I think the Tories will self destruct on that.

Like Cameron's comment about opinion polls - there's only one that matters!

Precise result may be key for the boundary changes.

DUP may not support the boundary changes.

Huppert gone

JonCisBack said:

Quite poor result for Grant Shapps - wikigate?

Too right. He's on my [short] list of Tories I wouldn't vote for.

Cookie said:

I'm a bit behind the curve here - bed early and only just up - but has anyone seen the result in Burton? Tories up to 66%, Labour and Lib Dems lose deposit?!

It was a typo by BBC.

Correct result:

http://www.eaststaffsbc.gov.uk/elections/2015-burton-constituency-results
Con 24,376
Lab 13,484
UKIP 8,658
LD 1,232
Green 1,224