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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is turning into a truly terrible night for the Lib Dem

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  • BalthasarsfeastBalthasarsfeast Posts: 16
    Nick I'm very sorry for you. I think you may owe Audrey a tenner but I'll tell her to contact you when you've had a chance to get over this disappointment.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    CON HOLD HERTFORD AND STORTFORD

    :-)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jonwalker121: It's now official - Labour have taken Birmingham Yardley, Lib Dem MP John Hemming loses his seat #ge2015
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    numbertwelve said:

    Ave_it said:

    Interesting UUP gain in Fermanagh which means we might need one more seat!

    Don't the UUP caucus with the Tories? Or if not, I think their support is a given
    Not quite but their support should be a given with tactful handling.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    The Mogg has been reelected.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    NickPalmer said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    I'd still like to know where 2010 LibDems went.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Con hold Hertford, Guildford and St Albans
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    NickPalmer said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    Commiserations Nick. Good effort.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    How the heck have we gained Plymouth Moor View?

    I have no f-ing idea. I'm confused. But very pleased!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    Ian Dunt: Actually feeling quite sorry for Miliband. Principled, decent man. Might not have made best leader, but fought the more honourable campaign.

    It was certainly the most laden with hubris. I hope he dumps that bloody Edstone on the car of whoever suggested it.

    With the Con minority/small Con majority Cameron's got, the next five years may not be magic and roses anyway, particularly with impact of austerity to come, Scotland, and Europe - Cameron keeping his party together will be key, and if the past is anything to go by it'll be very hard to do that. Miliband seems like a nice guy, but just not PM material.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    MP_SE said:

    The Mogg has been reelected.

    Excellent. Hopefully with an increased majority.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658

    It'd be horrible if #EdBalls got the boot, said absolutely nobody, ever

    — Richard (@CaptainSambuca) May 8, 2015
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Hemming loses by quite a big margin as well.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    What is the latest Kipper national share prediction ?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    tlg86 said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Ave_it said:

    Interesting UUP gain in Fermanagh which means we might need one more seat!

    Don't the UUP caucus with the Tories? Or if not, I think their support is a given
    This sounds quite important and interesting. Why are the media not talking about it?
    Probably because the UUP didn't win any seats last time around.

    Although the relationship between the two parties has varied over the years, I think it is pretty much accepted that there is close loyalty there
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,097
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    How the heck have we gained Plymouth Moor View?

    A very good and energetic candidate, so I understand.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    NickPalmer said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    Nick - your posts are always appreciated.

    Serious question - why were the polls so wrong?

    Did people switch on the day?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    MP_SE said:

    The Mogg has been reelected.

    Worth it for the entertainment factor.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    McVey got the Tory vote +2,000 but it wasn't enough.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    NickPalmer said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    Best wishes. You will probably do more good with the animal welfare than making up the numbers on the back benches.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    At the start of the night to suggest that the Libdems would struggle to have enough for a rugby team would of been rather pessimistic of their chances. Didn't think it would be a 7's team that they would be struggling to muster...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    Really hope McVey gets a peerage or parachuted into a safe seat. She didnt deserve that wretched campaign against her.

    Also, Maude for cabinet office as Peer?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    Many commiserations, Nick. You worked very hard and were very passionate about your seat.

    All the best in you future endeavours.
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    Very gracious post from Nick Palmer; all the very best in the future.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    kle4 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    What a gent.
    Top class.

    Even before I found PB, he was my favourite MP - had a soft spot for anyone with a maths degree, a polyscandiglot who had earned a crust programming on the ZX Speccy.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Amazing the forecast has not been updated. Cons must be on for 330ish now.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    How the heck have we gained Plymouth Moor View?

    I have no f-ing idea. I'm confused. But very pleased!
    That'll be the wine; I'm on my second bottle!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Artist said:

    MP_SE said:

    I was looking forward to Peter Bone demanding Cameron's resignation. Looks like it won't happen now.

    The Tory backbenchers will be running the country for the next five years.
    Cameron has to stamp his authority on those loons right now, he'll never be in a better position to do it. I think I said if he somehow managed a majority, after 5 years of cuts and not having managed one last time, he'd bee a truly incredible leader. Maybe he is. Aided by the even worse than imagined collapse of the LDs, but he still had to stamp them into the dirt after they fell to make sure they didn't get back up.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    RobD said:

    MP_SE said:

    The Mogg has been reelected.

    Excellent. Hopefully with an increased majority.
    12,741, big swing to him.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm glad I'm a Tory, if I was a Lib Dem or Lab, I'd be crying like a disgraced televangelist right now

    Post of the night!
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    edited May 2015
    KentRising said:

    LucyJones said:

    KentRising said:

    UKIP move from 4th to 2nd v Fallon in Sevenoaks, up 14%.

    This is what UKIP are doing: piling up 2nd places. Must be 100+ now.

    I'm in Sevenoaks and that doesn't surprise me at all. The Ukip guy is the only one I've seen out campaigning. I think Fallon's failure to deliver a Grammar School for the town can't have helped him either.
    Yeah, Lindsay (UKIP) didn't make enough of it. Generic national leaflets about the EU when one - 'I'd fight for a grammar school, my kids go to state schools unlike those of Fallon, who's failed to deliver" - would have cut-through.
    The Grammar School was a constant issue in the local press for about the past 5 years and we were always "just about" to get one, only to find another reason to put off the decision.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156
    UUP gain Fermanagh from SF - UUP now have two MPs
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited May 2015
    NickPalmer said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    Good luck with your future ventures.

    I suspect the forces arraigned against you were greater than a single constituency MP could overcome - I'm sure it wasn't for want of trying!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Mortimer said:

    Really hope McVey gets a peerage or parachuted into a safe seat. She didnt deserve that wretched campaign against her.

    Also, Maude for cabinet office as Peer?

    Agreed. Shame she can't join in the jubilation most Tories are feeling right now.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Someone pinch me these results are unbelievable
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm on bottle two of fizzy plonk myself :smiley:
    Blue_rog said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    How the heck have we gained Plymouth Moor View?

    I have no f-ing idea. I'm confused. But very pleased!
    That'll be the wine; I'm on my second bottle!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Osborne grinning like a Cheshire Cat
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    williamglenn said:

    Scott_P said:

    @StigAbell: The search for the EdStone begins...

    Has Neil Kinnock suggested grinding it into dust yet?

    "I warn you never to grow old, or become a stone mason..."
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Just got up. I blame it all on Ave_it. If only he had backed UKIP. Sigh!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Vale of Glamorgan
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    This is the first g.e. that I have stayed up all night! I think the crowds in the halls have been better behaved and more respectful than I have seen before. Struck by the dignity of the speeches of the politicians - winners and losers.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Think the Tories are just going to make 326.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    JamesM said:

    Very gracious post from Nick Palmer; all the very best in the future.

    He's a gentleman.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    TGOHF said:

    @bbclaurak: Prof Curtice says now with more than half the results, Tories look 7pts ahead in popular vote, and still possible to get an overall majority

    Massive fail from pollsters - bar ICM In January.

    There were a few 5 or 6pt Con leads in April, though none of seven.
    Seriously David, what the eff are we going to write about over the weekend?
    ELBOW splits between Phone and Online polls?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories gain Plymouth Moor View by 1,026 votes:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000879
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    McVey can do one. Ashfield soon, could Gloria be in trouble?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Artist said:

    MP_SE said:

    I was looking forward to Peter Bone demanding Cameron's resignation. Looks like it won't happen now.

    The Tory backbenchers will be running the country for the next five years.
    Basically. In the long-term that could be quite entertaining.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    What are vote shares currently svp
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    The_Apocalypse said:

    kle4 said:

    Ian Dunt: Actually feeling quite sorry for Miliband. Principled, decent man. Might not have made best leader, but fought the more honourable campaign.

    It was certainly the most laden with hubris. I hope he dumps that bloody Edstone on the car of whoever suggested it.

    With the Con minority/small Con majority Cameron's got, the next five years may not be magic and roses anyway, particularly with impact of austerity to come, Scotland, and Europe - Cameron keeping his party together will be key, and if the past is anything to go by it'll be very hard to do that. Miliband seems like a nice guy, but just not PM material.
    Oh I have my doubts anyone can handle what Cameron now has to, although I won't rule it out after seeing this result.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Brom said:

    McVey can do one. Ashfield soon, could Gloria be in trouble?

    She held it easily.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Potential Con gains from Lab out there?

    Derby North
    Gedling
    Morely
    Wakefield
    Halifx

    what else?

    Possible Lab gains from Con ?

    Did I hear there is a recount in Croydon Central? And that's it maybe
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Brom said:

    McVey can do one. Ashfield soon, could Gloria be in trouble?

    Alas not! Miliband in tears
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    SquareRoot said:

    What are vote shares currently svp

    LAB 33.1, CON 32.2, UKIP 11.7, SNP, 7.4, LD 7.0, GRN 3.0
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Ouch the LDs in Oldham East
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Mortimer said:

    Really hope McVey gets a peerage or parachuted into a safe seat. She didnt deserve that wretched campaign against her.

    Also, Maude for cabinet office as Peer?

    There is a really nasty side to the Labour party. I hope tonight is just the start of their decline. Hopefully the unions start kicking off and imposing their will on them.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    As I type that, it's been updated! Con now forecast 325
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Mr_Eugenides: COMMISSION THE RESIGNATION STONE
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    not_on_fire said:

    As I type that, it's been updated! Con now forecast 325

    Con.. majority?? :D
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    With Sinn Fein losing a seat does that mean that 324 is now need for a majority?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Yes, CCentral is recounting
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Potential Con gains from Lab out there?

    Derby North
    Gedling
    Morely
    Wakefield
    Halifx

    what else?

    Possible Lab gains from Con ?

    Did I hear there is a recount in Croydon Central? And that's it maybe

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    When I finally do sleep (after work today), I think I will see 'SNP Gain' on my eyelids. They've been branded on there.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Apparently Norman Lamb has clung on in Norfolk North.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: "He thought he was going to be PM a couple of hours ago…" Marr on Miliband.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lab gain Wolverhampton SW
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited May 2015
    Marr right about no-one wanting to go into coalition after this. Sorry, Europe, I like it and you like it, but the British people do not.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Yes Nick, best wishes - you are always decent to your opponents.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    kle4 said:

    Artist said:

    MP_SE said:

    I was looking forward to Peter Bone demanding Cameron's resignation. Looks like it won't happen now.

    The Tory backbenchers will be running the country for the next five years.
    Cameron has to stamp his authority on those loons right now, he'll never be in a better position to do it. I think I said if he somehow managed a majority, after 5 years of cuts and not having managed one last time, he'd bee a truly incredible leader. Maybe he is. Aided by the even worse than imagined collapse of the LDs, but he still had to stamp them into the dirt after they fell to make sure they didn't get back up.
    David Cameron is another Brian Mulroney, he won on a nationalist scare and promises of reform that he can't deliver without crashing to bits.
    Now he will be forced to make the Tory manifesto reality, which is practically impossible.

    Any concession to the SNP or Europe will end backfiring, and the economic downturn will be the final nail.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Hard luck Nick Palmer.

    Politics is a brutal business .... I should have realised the writing was on the wall for you when the last but one ARSE had you in front by 666 votes.

    Stay with PB - you have much to offer PB.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Somerton & Frome CON GAIN
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories got very close in Hampstead, 44% to 42%:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000727
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    I'm going to use my GE strategy next time - and thanks to Plato for her suggestion, grab an hour early evening, watch the preamble and first couple of results, then kip for a couple of hours and wake up at 2, then drink wine until day break :grin:
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Tissue_Price said:

    Think the Tories are just going to make 326.

    Including Bercow, or 326+ bercow?
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Earlier I predicted UKIP 12-14% in Hertford and Stortford. Got 13.4% :-)

    (I know nobody cares...)

    Prisk majority now 21,500 up from about 4,500 in 2001
  • SthLondonNickSthLondonNick Posts: 26
    Wolverhampton SW - Lab GAIN
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Somerton & Frome (SW) - Tory gain from LD.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @dizzy_thinks: Somerton and Frome Lib Dem loss Tory gain
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Very close now to cross-over on seats. Cross-over on votes was a trifle delayed, but looks to have happened at about 7.01am yesterday morning.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Con GAIN Frome
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156
    RobD said:

    Tories 7 points ahead. This isn't happening. HAHA :D

    Game over, man! Game over :)
  • SthLondonNickSthLondonNick Posts: 26
    Somerton & Frome - Con GAIN
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sam Cam looks great at 5am.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Argyll & Bute SNP ga och you know the rest
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: Mark Reckless looks to have lost in Rochester and Strood.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @itvnews: CON Gain Thornbury & Yate Steve Webb out #GE2015
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Mark Reckless looks to have lost in Rochester and Strood.

    THE TPD IS OUT! :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Thornbury and fucking yate
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    This HAS to be a Cons majority. Come on Sky / BBC have the balls to call it.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Cllr Hussain gain Bradford East
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Britain Elects @britainelects · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Tories expected to be short of a majority by one seat. One.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2015
    Witney - possible Tory hold.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LAB gain Bradford E from LDs
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    My Sunday Thread is being written

    George Osborne : Truly he is the greatest master strategist of all time
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    SimonStClare said:

    Witney - posible Tory hold.

    Recount?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Scott_P said:

    @itvnews: CON Gain Thornbury & Yate Steve Webb out #GE2015

    Sad to hear that. One of the best Coalition Ministers and wont get any credit.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    324 needed due to SF loss
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Still waiting for Boston & Skegness...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Vale of Glamorgan comes in for the "JackW Dozen"
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Scott_P said:

    @itvnews: CON Gain Thornbury & Yate Steve Webb out #GE2015

    Lib Dem annihilation.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Bye bye Handycock. Tories take Portsmouth South
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Derbyshire NE is another Lab seat at risk; I guess
This discussion has been closed.