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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is turning into a truly terrible night for the Lib Dem

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    EIMP !
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,885
    Con gain Bolton west
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Awwww bless
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Have we had a result from Hendon? The BBC page is blank:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000741
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Con gain Hazel Grove and Bolton W. Maj surely there now? WIll add about 10 more gains in SW? LDs must be toast there:
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Surely the penny will finally drop in Labour here?
    KentRising said:

    Another 2nd place for UKIP - in Miliband's seat.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,210
    Tories 7 points ahead. This isn't happening. HAHA :D
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,292
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    TGOHF said:

    @bbclaurak: Prof Curtice says now with more than half the results, Tories look 7pts ahead in popular vote, and still possible to get an overall majority

    Massive fail from pollsters - bar ICM In January.

    There were a few 5 or 6pt Con leads in April, though none of seven.
    Seriously David, what the eff are we going to write about over the weekend?
    Lab leadership election. Liz Kendal, Dan Jarvis, Yvette, Alan... the list goes on.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Whiney, entitled shrews will not win future elections for Labour.
    williamglenn said:

    Yvette Cooper making her leadership pitch.

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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Lib dems are going to be wiped out in SW
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Is there a list of gains somewhere?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,359
    Will Tebbit and others apologise to Cameron for all the bile they've thrown at him I wonder? Or is it not enough because he won't have won the way they would like?

    One reason I wanted a Con-LD coalition in the first place in 2010 was I wanted a more liberal Cameron led government, and people think that is actually more his inclination that pandering to his more rowdy backbenchers. I hope that is true, as if he can actually manage a majority from this, Cameron's leadership will be stronger than it has ever been, and he needs to get them in line with his version of conservatism while he is at his peak, rather than be beholden to those same rowdy backbenchers.
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    GravitationGravitation Posts: 281
    A second seat for the Ulster Unionists! They don't have a pact with the Conservatives like last time, do they?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Horrible result for Labour in Tamworth, their vote dropping to 26.1%, Tories on 50.0%:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000986
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Ed is crap, and looks crap...
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Interesting UUP gain in Fermanagh which means we might need one more seat!
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    UUP gain F&ST
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,907
    Ooh, Doncaster North - was it SO and Isam who had a bet on which side of 50% Ed would get? Looks like JUST over 50%. Well done to whoever deemed that an evens bet!
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Laws out in Yeovil.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @skyelections: UUP gain #Fermanagh & #SouthTyrone from Sinn Fein #GE2015

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,804
    Be Jesus, UKIP got 9000 votes in Doncaster North.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Delighted at the Scottish results and disappointed at the English ones.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Concession speech!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,536
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    TGOHF said:

    @bbclaurak: Prof Curtice says now with more than half the results, Tories look 7pts ahead in popular vote, and still possible to get an overall majority

    Massive fail from pollsters - bar ICM In January.

    There were a few 5 or 6pt Con leads in April, though none of seven.
    Seriously David, what the eff are we going to write about over the weekend?
    AV?
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Is Ed conceding? Admonishing 'the next govt' sounds like it.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Ed conceding :grin:
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    currystar said:

    TGOHF said:

    @bbclaurak: Prof Curtice says now with more than half the results, Tories look 7pts ahead in popular vote, and still possible to get an overall majority

    Massive fail from pollsters - bar ICM In January.

    ICM had 39-33 two weeks ago. Apparently is was a rogue
    Phone polls were better for the Tories in recent weeks

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596435872121278464
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,210
    Blue_rog said:

    Ed conceding :grin:

    Did you enjoy your poo?........... :p
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,359
    Slackbladder said:

    Lib dems are going to be wiped out in SW

    Worse than that, they may be replaced as the anti-Tory vote by Labour or UKIP, which not only will hinder a parliamentary recovery, it will even hinder council strength in the region. I'm in Wiltshire, and people just don't vote Labour outside of Swindon. But now plenty are, more than LD. Remarkable.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Tim Montgomerie:

    Huge congrats to David Cameron (and Lynton Crosby). Despite austerity & the split on the right he's achieved a truly remarkable re-election.

    Gritted teeth, no doubt.....
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,804
    Bye Bye Ed.....
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    LucyJones said:

    KentRising said:

    UKIP move from 4th to 2nd v Fallon in Sevenoaks, up 14%.

    This is what UKIP are doing: piling up 2nd places. Must be 100+ now.

    I'm in Sevenoaks and that doesn't surprise me at all. The Ukip guy is the only one I've seen out campaigning. I think Fallon's failure to deliver a Grammar School for the town can't have helped him either.
    Yeah, Lindsay (UKIP) didn't make enough of it. Generic national leaflets about the EU when one - 'I'd fight for a grammar school, my kids go to state schools unlike those of Fallon, who's failed to deliver" - would have cut-through.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,292
    Looks like the whole fear factor, SNP holding balance of power, they'll tax your mansion/small semi etc etc really did work on shy tories.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,885
    edited May 2015
    Ave_it said:

    Interesting UUP gain in Fermanagh which means we might need one more seat!

    Don't the UUP caucus with the Tories? Or if not, I think their support is a given
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    bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    Norman Lamb face like thunder in North Norfolk. Looks to be close. Taxi for Farron!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: Labour now need to admit the Miliband experiment has been a disaster, and start moving on fast #GE2015
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SNP on 54 out of 59 with two seats to decide. Danny's and Michaels.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,292
    bunnco said:

    Norman Lamb face like thunder in North Norfolk. Looks to be close. Taxi for Farron!

    Might have to be a mini
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Does sound like Balls has gone
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,397
    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,012
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    TGOHF said:

    @bbclaurak: Prof Curtice says now with more than half the results, Tories look 7pts ahead in popular vote, and still possible to get an overall majority

    Massive fail from pollsters - bar ICM In January.

    There were a few 5 or 6pt Con leads in April, though none of seven.
    Seriously David, what the eff are we going to write about over the weekend?
    Tory cabinet positions?

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,061
    Close to concession speech by Ed Miliband, anyway off for some brief rest
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @lucymanning: Ed Miliband talks about responsibility of next Government.. Effectively conceding election.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Swing to Micky Fab in Lichfield:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000791
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @tnewtondunn: Labour now need to admit the Miliband experiment has been a disaster, and start moving on fast #GE2015

    "Experiment" ouch.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,210
    NickPalmer said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    Sorry for your loss, Nick!
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    Dair said:

    SNP on 54 out of 59 with two seats to decide. Danny's and Michaels.

    Michael has already conceded defeat.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,359
    True story, at the count I was at tonight, just before it began, I was able to see the exit poll and mentioned it to a colleague, who then blamed David Miliband, but meaning Ed. Even now people still mix them up. Maybe that was more significant than I imagined.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472
    numbertwelve said:

    Ave_it said:

    Interesting UUP gain in Fermanagh which means we might need one more seat!

    Don't the UUP caucus with the Tories? Or if not, I think their support is a given
    This sounds quite important and interesting. Why are the media not talking about it?
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,944
    Well done JackW - undoubtedly others too.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Tories hold Ashford
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    I was looking forward to Peter Bone demanding Cameron's resignation. Looks like it won't happen now.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    NickPalmer said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    Sorry for you personally, but not politically!!!
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    RobD said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Ed conceding :grin:

    Did you enjoy your poo?........... :p
    Well that's a weight off my mind :grin:
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Norfolk Mid
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,862
    NickPalmer said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    Good luck with whatever you do next, Nick.

    You were a good MP and the House is the poorer without you.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Boulton saying effectively Ed concession
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,386
    England & Wales:

    5 Con gains from Lab
    5 Lab gains from Con
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,886
    MP_SE said:

    I was looking forward to Peter Bone demanding Cameron's resignation. Looks like it won't happen now.

    The Tory backbenchers will be running the country for the next five years.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Oh, Charles Kennedy is gone to..!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @StigAbell: The search for the EdStone begins...
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    60-90 mins to Balls
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,359
    Ian Dunt: Actually feeling quite sorry for Miliband. Principled, decent man. Might not have made best leader, but fought the more honourable campaign.

    It was certainly the most laden with hubris. I hope he dumps that bloody Edstone on the car of whoever suggested it.
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    GravitationGravitation Posts: 281
    Con gain Plymouth Moor View. Bye bye Alison Seabeck
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    All about the Plymouth Moor View!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    After a long and boozy evening, what an extraordinary set of results!
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Con Gain Plymouth Moor view - from Lab??
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Kellner pointing out that 24 hours ago Labour were predicting 35 net gains from Con - currently its net zero (5 gains, 5 losses).....
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481
    https://twitter.com/skyelections/status/596532187467493376
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con GAIN Plymouth Moor from LAB
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,885
    Con gain Plymouth Moor View from Lab.

    Majority inching ever closer...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,804
    oxfordsimon said:

    60-90 mins to Balls

    What another hour....we have people waiting on having a shit here....
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Con gain Plymouth Moor View from Lab!

    By the end of the night there will be more Con gains from Lab than Lab gains from Con
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    NickPalmer said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    Bad luck, Nick. You put in a hell of a lot of work.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,210
    Gravitation said:

    Con gain Plymouth Moor View. Bye bye Alison Seabeck

    More CON gains :D
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,536
    Yes! The Gower by 27! Win for the BattleBus.....
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    SthLondonNickSthLondonNick Posts: 26
    Plymouth Moor View - Con GAIN
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    Mili pretty much conceding there
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472
    Who had a bet on the smallest margin of victory? I'm sure someone tipped it but I can't remember what the margin was.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    NickPalmer said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    That post is a credit to you Nick.

    Good luck with the animal welfare and whatever you decide to do now.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481
    How the heck have we gained Plymouth Moor View?
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited May 2015
    Doncaster North won't be seeing much more of EdM. It can't be long before he joins his brother in the U.S.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,359
    NickPalmer said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    What a gent.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    Con gain Plymouth Moor View
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories increased their majority in Hendon from 106 to 3,724:

    https://www.barnet.gov.uk/citizen-home/council-and-democracy/democracy-and-elections/elections-in-barnet/election-results-in-barnet.html

    Labour had another retread standing here.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,944
    Oh and PS. Well done me a little bit too. Twickenham was always my favourite bet. Just pulled my punches a bit more than I'd have liked in hindsight.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    John Hemming next LD out. Shame, he was a good egg.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,210
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    How the heck have we gained Plymouth Moor View?

    It has to be a dream :D LOL
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,496
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    TGOHF said:

    @bbclaurak: Prof Curtice says now with more than half the results, Tories look 7pts ahead in popular vote, and still possible to get an overall majority

    Massive fail from pollsters - bar ICM In January.

    There were a few 5 or 6pt Con leads in April, though none of seven.
    Seriously David, what the eff are we going to write about over the weekend?
    Cricket?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,804
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Doncaster North won't be seeing much more of EdM. It can't be long before he joins his brother in the U.S.

    They never did see much of him....Once every 5 years.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,083
    Scott_P said:

    @StigAbell: The search for the EdStone begins...

    Has Neil Kinnock suggested grinding it into dust yet?

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,292
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    Good luck with whatever you do next, Nick.

    You were a good MP and the House is the poorer without you.
    I suppose at times like these one can quote Kipling about treating disaster and triumph as equal imposters Nick. More time for Diplomacy anyway :-)
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Artist said:

    MP_SE said:

    I was looking forward to Peter Bone demanding Cameron's resignation. Looks like it won't happen now.

    The Tory backbenchers will be running the country for the next five years.
    O yes, completely forgot about the upcoming referendum. There is literally too much to take in tonight.

    Looks like the backbenchers will be getting their referendum. Now we can look forward to what Dave is going to demand in terms of concessions.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    NickPalmer said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    Very gracious of you Nick -all the best with your animal welfare
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481
    I'm glad I'm a Tory, if I was a Lib Dem or Lab, I'd be crying like a disgraced televangelist right now
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    NickPalmer said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    Unlucky, Nick! Please keep posting here! And look after the cats!
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,059
    edited May 2015
    NickPalmer said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    Bad luck, Nick. I'm really sorry. You certainly did all you could.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    NickPalmer said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    Respect Nick.

    I despise your party, your leader and your policies, but you're a good egg.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,804
    Mr Super Injection Breaker is out....
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    How the heck have we gained Plymouth Moor View?

    Really??? woah.
This discussion has been closed.