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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is turning into a truly terrible night for the Lib Dem

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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Tories take Portsmouth south
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Can Cameron hit 40,000 votes?
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Good. Hated that smarmey bastard.
    Scott_P said:

    @itvnews: CON Gain Thornbury & Yate Steve Webb out #GE2015

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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Mark Reckless looks to have lost in Rochester and Strood.

    THE TPD IS OUT! :D
    What does TPD stand for?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: The SNP carries all before it, but Salmond's dream of amending Labour Budgets line by line has gone.

    Hell yes!!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,720
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Bye bye Handycock. Tories take Portsmouth South

    Thank f##k for that....
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    Speedy said:

    Britain Elects @britainelects · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Tories expected to be short of a majority by one seat. One.

    Carswell?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories hold Erewash with increased majority of 3,584:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000695
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    LD have held Somerton and Frome tenaciously in the last 3 elections with a majority of around 1000 every time

    Con gain with majority of 20,270

    TWENTY THOUSAND

    So Wells is gone, Taunton, the Cornwall seats, and all teh Devon seats as well surely?? Must be Tory 330 seats total, no?

    Looks like Only hope for another LD hold is Norfolk N isn;t it?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,760
    Woo, Cameron got re-elected as an MP.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,376

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Mark Reckless looks to have lost in Rochester and Strood.

    THE TPD IS OUT! :D
    What does TPD stand for?
    Traitorous Pig Dog
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,276
    Boy oh boy, is there going to be some post-mortem in the labour party this summer.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    JackW said:

    Vale of Glamorgan comes in for the "JackW Dozen"

    What's your running score out of 12 Jack ?
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,886
    I'm not sure why the Lib Dem forecast has gone up.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,720
    Piss poor effort from Cameron only 35000 ;-)
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,062
    I need to go to work soon got a client meeting and no sleep.... TPD TPD TPD TPD we need to know and Nige also
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    20k!!!!! Holy Ballots

    LD have held Somerton and Frome tenaciously in the last 3 elections with a majority of around 1000 every time

    Con gain with majority of 20,270

    TWENTY THOUSAND

    So Wells is gone, Taunton, the Cornwall seats, and all teh Devon seats as well surely?? Must be Tory 330 seats total, no?

    Looks like Only hope for another LD hold is Norfolk N isn;t it?

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The pensions industry mourns.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,204

    Piss poor effort from Cameron only 35000 ;-)

    Shockingly bad.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @skyelections: Conservative gain #Colchester from Lib Dem #GE2015
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,292
    ITV News ‏@itvnews 55s55 seconds ago
    CON Hold Kingswood #GE2015
    2 retweets 0 favorites
    Reply Retweet2 Favorite
    More
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Steve Webb - one of the finest Coalition ministers out - Extremely cruel.
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    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Seats crossover! Con now ahead.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Tories GAIN Cornwall North
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,204
    Tories about to overtake Labour on BBC in terms of seats & votes.
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    I know that Ogh runs a great site but just how wrong has he been on this election .
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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Con gain Colchester
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    They're dropping like flies.
    Scott_P said:

    @skyelections: Conservative gain #Colchester from Lib Dem #GE2015

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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,012
    You're very welcome, Dave.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Speedy said:

    Britain Elects @britainelects · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Tories expected to be short of a majority by one seat. One.

    I don't understand how they could possibly fall short?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,461
    So what date will the EU referendum be?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    currystar said:

    I know that Ogh runs a great site but just how wrong has he been on this election .

    Donations may be required ?
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    BBC projection Con 325 Lab 232
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Looks like the SNP will have 55 seats, CON 2 seats LAB 1, LD 1 in Scotland.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    My Sunday Thread is being written

    George Osborne : Truly he is the greatest master strategist of all time

    Perhaps tim could make a guest appearance to write the article.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,204
    Dadge said:

    BBC projection Con 325 Lab 232

    If we end up with 100 more seats than Labour, I'll be happy :D All that talk about 20 seat gap.. titter.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,314
    Cameron remembering those who sacrificed...LD MPs?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,393

    Someone pinch me these results are unbelievable

    MikeL said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    Nick - your posts are always appreciated.

    Serious question - why were the polls so wrong?

    Did people switch on the day?
    Thanks for all the sympathetic posts. It's actually OK - as I said the other day, I've got a great day job and at a personal level I'm relaxed about it. And Rottenborough's quote from Kipling is apt!

    Mike, as I said earlier I did smell a rat during the day - in every part of the constituuency, people who'd been promising support just 2-3 days earlier were suddenly declining to comment or even saying openly that they were voting for someone else. A couple of my team wer unwise enough to say "But you promised..." which invariably elicited the response "no I didn't!" The voters involved didn't offer reasons, but my guess is that the economy finally struck home - it had been a persistent theme through the election in a minor key whether the apparent recovery might be put at risk by Labour, and I suspect it flared up as people actually decided how to vote. There were some local factors too (tramworks blamed on the Labour council, and a complex feud over a Labour-led town council).

    Anyway, must snatch some sleep before the borough council count. G'night!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,720
    Dadge said:

    BBC projection Con 325 Lab 232

    Douglas my old chap....what can we do for you....
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TGOHF said:

    JackW said:

    Vale of Glamorgan comes in for the "JackW Dozen"

    What's your running score out of 12 Jack ?
    13 seats - 8 hits 1 miss 4 to come.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,314
    RobD said:

    Dadge said:

    BBC projection Con 325 Lab 232

    If we end up with 100 more seats than Labour, I'll be happy :D All that talk about 20 seat gap.. titter.
    I thought Labour would be 20 ahead at least! Gods I'm thick.
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    edited May 2015
    Colchester falls with ease

    LDs will fit in a Vauxhall Zafira
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: The SNP carries all before it, but Salmond's dream of amending Labour Budgets line by line has gone.

    Hell yes!!

    Huge thanks to the SNP for smashing Labour and making this great result possible.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,012
    Fenster, the PM just said that he'd help those that need it! This is what we were talking about earlier, no?
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Dave triumphant yeah
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Croydon South
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Ed Balls has lost.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,204
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Dadge said:

    BBC projection Con 325 Lab 232

    If we end up with 100 more seats than Labour, I'll be happy :D All that talk about 20 seat gap.. titter.
    I thought Labour would be 20 ahead at least! Gods I'm thick.
    I was thoroughly disheartened this morning.. what with the polls not moving. This has been a spectacular night.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,720

    My Sunday Thread is being written

    George Osborne : Truly he is the greatest master strategist of all time

    Perhaps tim could make a guest appearance to write the article.
    Still no tweets...should we be getting worried?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    tlg86 said:

    So what date will the EU referendum be?

    At an undisclosed date sometime next century perhaps.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Wish the idiots of Whitney would stop humming
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Recount in Derby North
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Imagine how sad that has to be to one of the three SNP MPs that didnt win
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,314
    So...which LD wants to be leader? Carmichael, Brake, Farron...somebody else?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Worc Mid
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    It looks as if the Liberal Democrats have done as well as they did when they last went into coalition with the Tories in the 1930s. Moral of the story: don't sleep with the Conservatives!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,204
    Dair said:

    Imagine how sad that has to be to one of the three SNP MPs that didnt win

    Have you won Berwickshire ? :(
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,143
    Dair said:

    Imagine how sad that has to be to one of the three SNP MPs that didnt win

    How is BRS looking
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    CON GAIN Thornbury and Yate from LDs
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,314
    I know you are trying Cameron, but any devolution you offer will not be enough for the SNP, and you know it.
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    The spread markets were wrong again but the other way

    Good job I don't gamble :-)
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Speedy said:

    tlg86 said:

    So what date will the EU referendum be?

    At an undisclosed date sometime next century perhaps.
    Would love to see the EU bureaucrats reaction.
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Have we had the Balls result yet? I'm losing track.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,385
    edited May 2015

    Thanks for all the sympathetic posts. It's actually OK - as I said the other day, I've got a great day job and at a personal level I'm relaxed about it. And Rottenborough's quote from Kipling is apt!

    Mike, as I said earlier I did smell a rat during the day - in every part of the constituuency, people who'd been promising support just 2-3 days earlier were suddenly declining to comment or even saying openly that they were voting for someone else. A couple of my team wer unwise enough to say "But you promised..." which invariably elicited the response "no I didn't!" The voters involved didn't offer reasons, but my guess is that the economy finally struck home - it had been a persistent theme through the election in a minor key whether the apparent recovery might be put at risk by Labour, and I suspect it flared up as people actually decided how to vote. There were some local factors too (tramworks blamed on the Labour council, and a complex feud over a Labour-led town council).

    Anyway, must snatch some sleep before the borough council count. G'night!

    Thanks for that feedback - honest as always.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,720
    Pumped up Cameron there....rarely do we see it.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Well done to my friend James Cleverly holding Braintree
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    LucyJones said:

    Have we had the Balls result yet? I'm losing track.

    30-60 minutes off yet
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Michael Green is safe.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Welwyn Hatfield and Braintree - oh and Bracknell
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Tories have now overtaken Lab in total votes, and about to do so in total seats

    1992 relegated to 2nd place in great shock election nights of our time
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,204
    I'd agree with the comments re: Nick. Hope he sticks around in the years to come.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    About an hour to go
    LucyJones said:

    Have we had the Balls result yet? I'm losing track.

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    A referendum on the European Union by December 2017 now looks inevitable.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851

    Dadge said:

    BBC projection Con 325 Lab 232

    Douglas my old chap....what can we do for you....
    Voting reform?!
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Imagine how sad that has to be to one of the three SNP MPs that didnt win

    How is BRS looking
    recount, result @ 7. Not sure who is ahead, its SNP v Con
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,314
    Dair said:

    Imagine how sad that has to be to one of the three SNP MPs that didnt win

    Heh, that is pretty amusing actually. Some gentle teasing from their victorious comrades in good fun I imagine.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,143

    Derbyshire NE is another Lab seat at risk; I guess

    Its going blue
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    ITV prediction:

    Con 327
    Lab 233
    SNP 56
    LD 10
    UKIP 1
    Greens 1
    Others 22
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,276
    Well, it's pretty much broad daylight, and I am skint on betting losses on a Lab minority. So better go to bed and try and see if the whole thing was a bad dream.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Con hold Penrith and The Border, and Totnes, and Flyde
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour survived in Newcastle under Lyme but it was close
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,009
    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Imagine how sad that has to be to one of the three SNP MPs that didnt win

    How is BRS looking
    Moore has said it's a two-horse race, but he is not one of the horses ...
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,901
    I'm a bit behind the curve here - bed early and only just up - but has anyone seen the result in Burton? Tories up to 66%, Labour and Lib Dems lose deposit?!
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,834

    Someone pinch me these results are unbelievable

    MikeL said:

    Handsome Tory win in Broxtowe - yes, I probably did overegg the optimistic reports, eh? Never mind - thanks for the friendly comments. Back to animal welfare!

    Nick - your posts are always appreciated.

    Serious question - why were the polls so wrong?

    Did people switch on the day?
    Thanks for all the sympathetic posts. It's actually OK - as I said the other day, I've got a great day job and at a personal level I'm relaxed about it. And Rottenborough's quote from Kipling is apt!

    Mike, as I said earlier I did smell a rat during the day - in every part of the constituuency, people who'd been promising support just 2-3 days earlier were suddenly declining to comment or even saying openly that they were voting for someone else. A couple of my team wer unwise enough to say "But you promised..." which invariably elicited the response "no I didn't!" The voters involved didn't offer reasons, but my guess is that the economy finally struck home - it had been a persistent theme through the election in a minor key whether the apparent recovery might be put at risk by Labour, and I suspect it flared up as people actually decided how to vote. There were some local factors too (tramworks blamed on the Labour council, and a complex feud over a Labour-led town council).

    Anyway, must snatch some sleep before the borough council count. G'night!
    Good luck Nick - you are doing vital work in your field.
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Quite poor result for Grant Shapps - wikigate?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,012
    Letwin holds Dorset W
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories hold Northampton North with maj of 3,245:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000861
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    A referendum on the European Union by December 2017 now looks inevitable.

    I think the Tories will self destruct on that.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Anyone notice what appears to have been missing from election coverage this time? Reporters at party HQs?
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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Like Cameron's comment about opinion polls - there's only one that matters!
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    TW1R64TW1R64 Posts: 56
    When did the Twickenham result come in. I must have nodded off.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,385
    Precise result may be key for the boundary changes.

    DUP may not support the boundary changes.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,886
    Shocked at that Cambridge result.
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Huppert gone
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    MimusMimus Posts: 56
    Reverse crossover.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Quite poor result for Grant Shapps - wikigate?

    Too right. He's on my [short] list of Tories I wouldn't vote for.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Can't help noticing that Dave shepherded Sam into the car, Ed did not do same for Justine. Just saying.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cookie said:

    I'm a bit behind the curve here - bed early and only just up - but has anyone seen the result in Burton? Tories up to 66%, Labour and Lib Dems lose deposit?!

    It was a typo by BBC.

    Correct result:

    http://www.eaststaffsbc.gov.uk/elections/2015-burton-constituency-results
    Con 24,376
    Lab 13,484
    UKIP 8,658
    LD 1,232
    Green 1,224
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Labour gains Cambridge.
This discussion has been closed.