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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is turning into a truly terrible night for the Lib Dem

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  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Recount in BRS. Need it for the Panda tie. And to keep SNP < 56
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    First Birmingham result. This is important.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    LDs come fourth in Camborne & Redruth:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000616
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I heard a lot voters down here mentioning the SNP and Labour being crap at the economy...
    Sean_F said:

    So, were the polls always wrong, or did voters change their minds in the polling booth?

  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    edited May 2015
    61 second places for Ukip so far, according to Sky.

    So close, and yet so far.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Jim Murphy constituency turnout 81%!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Labour piling up votes where they don't need to
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    I can't believe I am still up and awake. What a great night!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sean_F said:

    So, were the polls always wrong, or did voters change their minds in the polling booth?

    Perhaps the wrong demographics.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: David LAWS OUT.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/596527118944739328

    Fair play to @Tissue_Price - he'd tipped that for a while.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Gower majority of 27, first time it hasn't been Labour since 1918!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Gower has been Labour since 1906.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories take Gower by 27 votes:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/W07000046
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    I hold my hand up. I have lost massively on this election. What I don't understand is where have the LibDem 2010 voters gone? Not Lab in the midlands marginals thats for sure.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Disappointed that Liam Byrne has held on for Labour.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Dair Latest Yougov has No 53 Yes 47 in rerun referendum
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,972
    Morning all! We got routed in Stockton South: Tories went from 332 majority to 5,046. Ironically we look to have won a lot of votes for the council elections which start formally counting at 11am
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    I really want Dorset seats to declare. It is dawn in Dorset and I want to be able to proclaim a Blue dawn in Dorset! Fingers crossed!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JournoStephen: Meanwhile in Wales... the Conservatives are set for their best general election result since 1983 http://t.co/X7YYmoMNli
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    It's the third. Labour held Northfields (small swing to Con) and Erdington (small swing to Lab) earlier
    Purseybear said:

    First Birmingham result. This is important.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pong said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/596527118944739328

    Fair play to @Tissue_Price - he'd tipped that for a while.
    Much obliged! 2/6 of the Wales long-shots I identified came in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    rottenborough said:

    I hold my hand up. I have lost massively on this election. What I don't understand is where have the LibDem 2010 voters gone? Not Lab in the midlands marginals thats for sure.

    Stayed at home? UKIP?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/596528915247714304
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Sean_F said:

    So, were the polls always wrong, or did voters change their minds in the polling booth?

    The polls were always wrong, probably for years.
    Lord A was particularly rubbish.

    The LD never collapsed in favour of Labour and UKIP never took votes from the Tories.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rottenborough said:

    I hold my hand up. I have lost massively on this election. What I don't understand is where have the LibDem 2010 voters gone? Not Lab in the midlands marginals thats for sure.

    *cough*Labour firewall*cough*
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    Any news on T. Hunt yet?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lab hold Blackpool South

    Given how the night is developing they could have been in danger there
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/596529263840468993
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Scott_P said:

    @JournoStephen: Meanwhile in Wales... the Conservatives are set for their best general election result since 1983 http://t.co/X7YYmoMNli

    I wonder how Labour's excellent running of the NHS in Wales have effected them?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Here's Ed...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Surely a majority is now a certainty? I can't see how not if net changes between Tories and Labour seem to be 0, while they get masses of gains from the Lib Dems.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    Yvette Cooper making her leadership pitch.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Off to bed for a few hours I think, Berwickshire declaring at 7am post recount
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    Do I remember rightly: didn't some pensioner bet £50K on a labour majority this week?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    JackW said:

    More bad news from Nick Palmer .... he's ruined my clean sweep of the "JackW Dozen" ....

    Bugger .... :smile:

    ... and Watford wasn't exactly TCTC, was it?

    I wasn't expecting the LibDems to come third, though.
    Absolutely astonishing Nabbers.

    The local Tories were genuinely concerned. Voters makes fools of all of us. :smile:

    Bury North comes in for the "JackW Dozen"

  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Cooper making a play for the leadership
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @itvnews: CON Gain Hazel Grove #GE2015
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Cooper pitching for the big job. Boring.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    UKIP move from 4th to 2nd v Fallon in Sevenoaks, up 14%.

    This is what UKIP are doing: piling up 2nd places. Must be 100+ now.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    Con gain Gower.

    I think it's highly likely, unless SW Lib Dems are very limpet-like, that they won't get to the de facto 323 now
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Bye bye Kennedy
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Scott_P said:

    rottenborough said:

    I hold my hand up. I have lost massively on this election. What I don't understand is where have the LibDem 2010 voters gone? Not Lab in the midlands marginals thats for sure.

    *cough*Labour firewall*cough*
    "crutch", I think was the word.

    Actually, we don't know that they didn't. It could be that Labour's former core failed to turn out or defected to UKIP in sizable numbers.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    With her maj up a bit - it can't hurt her at all
    williamglenn said:

    Yvette Cooper making her leadership pitch.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/596528915247714304

    One of the architects of the coalition gets his reward.
    Ashdown should be covered with tar and chicken feathers.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Kennedy's declaration on BBC...
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Charlie Kennedy declaration on Sky
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @bbclaurak: Prof Curtice says now with more than half the results, Tories look 7pts ahead in popular vote, and still possible to get an overall majority

    Massive fail from pollsters - bar ICM In January.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Prodicus said:

    I can't believe I am still up and awake. What a great night!

    For those of us old enough to remember 1992......the party starts well, then turns ugly....lets hope the UKIP 'failure' keeps the Turnip Taliban in their places.....
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    rottenborough said:

    I hold my hand up. I have lost massively on this election. What I don't understand is where have the LibDem 2010 voters gone? Not Lab in the midlands marginals thats for sure.

    All voting in twickenham?
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Charlie Kennedy gone.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SCOTLAND WINS in Skyee Lochaber and Ross
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Charles Kennedy loses
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Kennedy's gone too!!!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Charles Kennedy loses
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Kennedy gone too
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    Charlie Kennedy gone.

    Let's hope he sorts his life out.. poor guy.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Charles Kennedy - gawwwwn.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    TGOHF said:

    @bbclaurak: Prof Curtice says now with more than half the results, Tories look 7pts ahead in popular vote, and still possible to get an overall majority

    Massive fail from pollsters - bar ICM In January.

    ICM had 39-33 two weeks ago. Apparently is was a rogue
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    Cooper-Balls re-elected. Single-earner household?
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    ED!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ted's declaration now
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Wouldn't it be funny if.... well,OK.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Eddisbury - where is that??
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Charles Kennedy gone just before head off!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Charles Kennedy out - Hopefully he will be able to get his life back on track.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    currystar said:

    TGOHF said:

    @bbclaurak: Prof Curtice says now with more than half the results, Tories look 7pts ahead in popular vote, and still possible to get an overall majority

    Massive fail from pollsters - bar ICM In January.

    ICM had 39-33 two weeks ago. Apparently is was a rogue
    I'm pretty sure EICIPM... surely???
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Bradshaw holds Exeter with a 4% swing in his favour:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000698
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    I didn't even know the Tories were targeting Bolton West.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Kennedy out!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    currystar said:

    TGOHF said:

    @bbclaurak: Prof Curtice says now with more than half the results, Tories look 7pts ahead in popular vote, and still possible to get an overall majority

    Massive fail from pollsters - bar ICM In January.

    ICM had 39-33 two weeks ago. Apparently is was a rogue
    They overstated Labour by 3-4%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    Here's Team Tw@t,,,making his 5 yearly visit.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    TGOHF said:

    @bbclaurak: Prof Curtice says now with more than half the results, Tories look 7pts ahead in popular vote, and still possible to get an overall majority

    Massive fail from pollsters - bar ICM In January.

    There were a few 5 or 6pt Con leads in April, though none of seven.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @NicoHines: Greens rubbing it in: say they have beaten the Lib Dems in 67 seats
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    When does Caithness declare. My last winnable bet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Plato said:

    Con hold Eddisbury - where is that??

    Cheshire
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    JackW said:

    Charles Kennedy out - Hopefully he will be able to get his life back on track.

    As he's often as drunk as a lord they'll probably make him one.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories hold Bury North by 378:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000611
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Draw back the curtains peeps, it's daylight out.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Whiney, entitled shrews will not win future elections for Labour.
    williamglenn said:

    Yvette Cooper making her leadership pitch.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    david_herdson said:

    Scott_P said:

    rottenborough said:

    I hold my hand up. I have lost massively on this election. What I don't understand is where have the LibDem 2010 voters gone? Not Lab in the midlands marginals thats for sure.

    *cough*Labour firewall*cough*
    "crutch", I think was the word.

    Actually, we don't know that they didn't. It could be that Labour's former core failed to turn out or defected to UKIP in sizable numbers.
    I think it was past weighting of D/K that destroyed the UK polling industry, plus some other factors that we might found from the exit poll internals.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    SNP win Doncaster North
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Ed wins!!!

    His seat
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Well at least he won his own seat....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Slackbladder said:

    Ed wins!!!

    His seat

    EICIMP?
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    KentRising said:

    UKIP move from 4th to 2nd v Fallon in Sevenoaks, up 14%.

    This is what UKIP are doing: piling up 2nd places. Must be 100+ now.

    I'm in Sevenoaks and that doesn't surprise me at all. The Ukip guy is the only one I've seen out campaigning. I think Fallon's failure to deliver a Grammar School for the town can't have helped him either.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Ed is safe ... till lunchtime?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Hazel Grove Con gain
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Two key gains flash through!!!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Bolton W Con gain
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    RobD said:

    currystar said:

    TGOHF said:

    @bbclaurak: Prof Curtice says now with more than half the results, Tories look 7pts ahead in popular vote, and still possible to get an overall majority

    Massive fail from pollsters - bar ICM In January.

    ICM had 39-33 two weeks ago. Apparently is was a rogue
    I'm pretty sure EICIPM... surely???
    Er, no. just EIC. Someone said earlier they could hear David M's laughter from New York.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Another 2nd place for UKIP - in Miliband's seat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Ed M holds Doncaster N
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    CarlottaVance said:

    Prodicus said:

    I can't believe I am still up and awake. What a great night!

    For those of us old enough to remember 1992......the party starts well, then turns ugly....lets hope the UKIP 'failure' keeps the Turnip Taliban in their places.....
    Defecting to UKIP does not look a smart move anymore.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    david_herdson said:

    TGOHF said:

    @bbclaurak: Prof Curtice says now with more than half the results, Tories look 7pts ahead in popular vote, and still possible to get an overall majority

    Massive fail from pollsters - bar ICM In January.

    There were a few 5 or 6pt Con leads in April, though none of seven.
    Seriously David, what the eff are we going to write about over the weekend?
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    rottenborough said:

    When does Caithness declare. My last winnable bet.

    SNP won it about an hour ago
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Bolton West Con gain from Lab
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    RobD said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Ed wins!!!

    His seat

    EICIMP?
    Arf - shame BJO is missing all the fun.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    I almost feel sorry for the guy. What a crazy 24 hours.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    EICIMP
This discussion has been closed.