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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is turning into a truly terrible night for the Lib Dem

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LAB gain Cambs from LDs
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    oxfordsimon said:

    LucyJones said:

    Have we had the Balls result yet? I'm losing track.

    30-60 minutes off yet
    Thanks. I have to be "up" in 30 minutes... starting to feel sleepy now, but I think I've missed my chance,

    This is like 1997 in reverse. I felt gutted then. Much happier overall this time, although disappointed for Ukip and sorry for the LibDems.

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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Danny Alexander next.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Millsy said:

    Like Cameron's comment about opinion polls - there's only one that matters!

    The only one that will exist from now on.
    I think the British Polling industry will shut down after the colossal fiasco of this election.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lab gain Cambridge :(
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,954
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Labour survived in Newcastle under Lyme but it was close

    That should have been easy for Labour.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,503
    Millsy said:

    Like Cameron's comment about opinion polls - there's only one that matters!

    What a bloody waste of money all those polls ended up being. At least the good lord can waste as much of his own as he likes.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited May 2015
    Speedy said:

    Life_ina_market_town said:

    A referendum on the European Union by December 2017 now looks inevitable.

    I think the Tories will self destruct on that.
    The vote needs to get a majority. Will almost certainly need DUP and UKIP support.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Harwich, and Corby
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,889
    edited May 2015
    Danny up next... Is 18k enough? nope!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,715
    TW1R64 said:

    When did the Twickenham result come in. I must have nodded off.

    4:35ish
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    BalthasarsfeastBalthasarsfeast Posts: 16
    Look at this on 20th April. When John the Tip predicted exactly this result he was told to keep taking the meds and banned from this site

    8.52pm on 20th April
    John the Tip said:

    I think we may see something like this. None of know but my guesstimate at this stage is the following:

    Conservative 310 to 340
    Labour 240-ish
    SNP 40+
    LineDem 12
    Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will.

    Tyson: 'are you sure you've taken your mess properly this afternoon. You better check with the psychiatric nurse on the ward'
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Sandpit said:

    Danny up next... Is 18k enough?

    nope
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Danny Alexander gone. Another great shame imho.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Bad night for the Alexanders in Scotland.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Dadge said:

    BBC projection Con 325 Lab 232

    If we end up with 100 more seats than Labour, I'll be happy :D All that talk about 20 seat gap.. titter.
    I thought Labour would be 20 ahead at least! Gods I'm thick.
    I was thoroughly disheartened this morning.. what with the polls not moving. This has been a spectacular night.
    I will need a nap before totalling up. I have done well in individual seats markets, betting against LDs and UKIP. I have never been very convinced by personal votes. I backed Jacks ARSE early on, backing Lab under 250 seat band, and Con Minority and Majority governments.

    I just got wobbly in the last week with stationary polls so put a significant bet on Lab most seats. I mostly missed out on the Scotterdammerung, the value had mostly gone by the time I wised up. Still in profit on Scotland but nothing like it could have been.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,505
    Tories 'hold' Corby.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    Laws is out.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,887
    How does Gisela Stuart keep holding on?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,715
    Con gain Yeovil, bye bye David Laws.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    So no UKIP revolution. How sad is that for Britain. Ah well!
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,889
    Yeovil goes blue too - Bye bye David Laws
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,364
    One thing's very clear: unless the voting system changes, there will not be a another coalition government in Britain for decades after this result for the LDs.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    DANNY ALEXANDER has gone
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Artist said:

    Shocked at that Cambridge result.

    If LordA said it was a LD hold then it probably would have ended a LD loss.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    CON GAIN SOLIHULL from LDs
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,954
    kle4 said:

    Millsy said:

    Like Cameron's comment about opinion polls - there's only one that matters!

    What a bloody waste of money all those polls ended up being. At least the good lord can waste as much of his own as he likes.
    I don't envy the poor sod from YouGov who has to go in front of Murdoch and explain what he pissed all his money upon those daily polls on.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,503
    Huppert gone too, my word. I guess more LD MPs should have done like Nick and gotten those Tory tactical votes, eh?
    old_labour said:

    Danny Alexander next.

    The longest wait for a sure thing ever perhaps.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,249
    Dair said:

    DANNY ALEXANDER has gone

    By 10k.. huge.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,294
    SimonStClare said:

    Danny Alexander gone. Another great shame imho.

    Agree.
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Balthasarsfeast said:

    Look at this on 20th April. When John the Tip predicted exactly this result he was told to keep taking the meds and banned from this site

    8.52pm on 20th April
    John the Tip said:

    I think we may see something like this. None of know but my guesstimate at this stage is the following:

    Conservative 310 to 340
    Labour 240-ish
    SNP 40+
    LineDem 12
    Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will.

    Tyson: 'are you sure you've taken your mess properly this afternoon. You better check with the psychiatric nurse on the ward'

    That was pretty close.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories almost won Newcastle-under-Lyme. Lab maj 650:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000834
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    MimusMimus Posts: 56
    Where are the lib dems going to scrape four more seats from? Only 198 seats to go.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    Plato said:

    Con hold Harwich, and Corby

    Isn't that a regain Corby after the by-election?
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Plato said:

    About an hour to go

    LucyJones said:

    Have we had the Balls result yet? I'm losing track.

    Sooo glad I had a 'comfort' break when I did :grin:
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SkyeHE: GAIN. RT @skyelections: Conservative hold #Corby #GE2015
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    Boulton: "Every Lib Dem who has been a cabinet minister - other than Clegg - has lost their seat."
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Laws out.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    MikeK said:

    So no UKIP revolution. How sad is that for Britain. Ah well!

    Well an anti-SNP and anti-LD revolution occurred.
    Counter revolution really.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Tory Maj nailed on!
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Huppert loses by 600

    Cons on 8k

    Greens on 4k
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,249
    Can the Tories gain the last seat in Scotland?
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    Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    At least the Orange Bookers are also getting their just desserts.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Christ.
    KentRising said:

    Boulton: "Every Lib Dem who has been a cabinet minister - other than Clegg - has lost their seat."

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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    oxfordsimon said:

    Plato said:

    Con hold Harwich, and Corby

    Isn't that a regain Corby after the by-election?
    They ignore byelections and only look at the GE result.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    There are no votes left.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Con gain Yeovil, bye bye David Laws.

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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    With Laws and Huppert losing does that mean Lamb is the only possible other MP for the Libdems?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jonwalker121: Everyone who has been a Lib Dem cabinet minister except Nick Clegg has now lost their seat, says @adamboultonSKY
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,219
    Libdemapocalypse
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Con hold sherwood

    have they held all of their top 10 most marginal seats?!
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Sherwood
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,715
    Con Hold Sherwood!
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    macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    Derby North second recount, victory expected be double figures but Cons think they have it.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :naughty::smiley:
    old_labour said:

    There are no votes left.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Con gain Yeovil, bye bye David Laws.

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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Saltire said:

    With Laws and Huppert losing does that mean Lamb is the only possible other MP for the Libdems?

    I think so
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    KentRising said:

    Boulton: "Every Lib Dem who has been a cabinet minister - other than Clegg - has lost their seat."

    Clegg should resign as an MP.
    He doesn't deserve to be in Parliament.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    MikeK said:

    So no UKIP revolution. How sad is that for Britain. Ah well!

    Chin up, vote share looks good, these things take time!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @itvnews: CON Gain St Austell & Newquay #GE2015
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BBC predicting 325, ITV 327.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    TGOHF said:

    Huppert loses by 600

    Cons on 8k

    Greens on 4k

    I could be wrong but im pretty sure people were saying Huppert was free money.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    MikeK said:

    So no UKIP revolution. How sad is that for Britain. Ah well!

    2020, Mike.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    how are the lib dems going to get to 10 seats?
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Very surprised about Cambridge.

    LibDems below 10 seats - Astonishing.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,236
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Con Hold Sherwood!

    Huzzah
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    Speedy said:

    KentRising said:

    Boulton: "Every Lib Dem who has been a cabinet minister - other than Clegg - has lost their seat."

    Clegg should resign as an MP.
    He doesn't deserve to be in Parliament.
    Eh?

    He just won his seat. Therefore he deserves to be there.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Romsey & Soton N, and Aylesbury
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    This is looking eerily accurate.
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2010/07/could-the-lib-dem-marginal-meltdown-mean-the-tories-gain-from-a-v/
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Saltire said:

    With Laws and Huppert losing does that mean Lamb is the only possible other MP for the Libdems?

    Only 43 LD so far on the Sky ticker, must be 13 still out there.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I hope those Lib Dem losers are not parachuted into the House of Lords. It is an obscenity.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,503
    Am I right in thinking that the UNS prediction for LD seats ended up being correct?
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    oxfordsimon said:

    Speedy said:

    KentRising said:

    Boulton: "Every Lib Dem who has been a cabinet minister - other than Clegg - has lost their seat."

    Clegg should resign as an MP.
    He doesn't deserve to be in Parliament.
    Eh?

    He just won his seat. Therefore he deserves to be there.
    I wonder if the Tories would have voted for him if they had an idea of their total number of seats.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Are all the LDs in the SW gone now?
    Scott_P said:

    @itvnews: CON Gain St Austell & Newquay #GE2015

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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Looks like we have got the overall majority as we have cleared out the LDs!

    Off to bed now :lol:

    GN all top night!!!

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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,249
    BBC still predicting 2 for UKIP
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    oxfordsimon said:

    Speedy said:

    KentRising said:

    Boulton: "Every Lib Dem who has been a cabinet minister - other than Clegg - has lost their seat."

    Clegg should resign as an MP.
    He doesn't deserve to be in Parliament.
    Eh?

    He just won his seat. Therefore he deserves to be there.
    As the last of the LD after destroying everyone else?
    That's a travesty.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,236
    Huppert smoked £50 done :(
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:

    Tories almost won Newcastle-under-Lyme. Lab maj 650:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000834

    FFS, should have gone to help there rather than Burton (which was obv safe but I know the MP).
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,294
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 5s5 seconds ago
    Tories GAIN Corby.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,574
    edited May 2015
    Mercer taking the Plymouth Moor View seat from Labour is huge - and as highlighted by my good self as a real possibility 3 weeks back.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,888
    Dear God I might lose my Cons 301-325 @11/4.

    But in a good way.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    RobD said:

    BBC still predicting 2 for UKIP

    And with a straight face too.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold S Ribble, and Bournemouth W
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,065
    Looks like Paddy has a hat to eat?
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Poor rcs1000,

    whowuddathunk'd it that the LD's would go into single figures.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    CON REGAIN Corby!
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Tories expected to be short of a majority by one seat. One.

    — Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 8, 2015
    Con - UKIP coalition if Farage wins?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,018
    Plato said:

    Are all the LDs in the SW gone now?

    Scott_P said:

    @itvnews: CON Gain St Austell & Newquay #GE2015

    Mid Dorset/North Poole still to announce. Fingers crossed!

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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Hmmm BBC now going for 12 Libdems seems rather optimistic.
    Also I noticed that in the graphics that they did not included the UUP in the possible government for the Conservatives
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,715
    Pulpstar said:

    Huppert smoked £50 done :(

    How much did you stake on Con gain Twickers following my suggestion?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MP_SE said:

    TGOHF said:

    Huppert loses by 600

    Cons on 8k

    Greens on 4k

    I could be wrong but im pretty sure people were saying Huppert was free money.
    Huge increase in the Lab vote from 10k to 18k. He didn't drop much.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,249
    TOPPING said:

    Dear God I might lose my Cons 301-325 @11/4.

    But in a good way.

    LOL. Who'd have thunk it.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MP_SE said:

    TGOHF said:

    Huppert loses by 600

    Cons on 8k

    Greens on 4k

    I could be wrong but im pretty sure people were saying Huppert was free money.
    No such thing in the betting world.
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    What a good man John Curtis is. He just had the humility to say they might not have got it 'quite' right because they said 316 not 326 in the exit poll. Kudos to him. They did really well. There aren't many like that around.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Barwell winning Croydon Central. Just.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,410
    Purseybear said:

    What a good man John Curtis is. He just had the humility to say they might not have got it 'quite' right because they said 316 not 326 in the exit poll. Kudos to him. They did really well. There aren't many like that around.

    Very high class.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,505
    Kellner wants the election to "stop right there"!
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    May holds Maidenhead.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lab gain Cambridge by 599:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000617
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Redditch
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Didn't a bookie take 30k from someone on Tory majority? If Con fall a few seats short he is going to be kicking himself.
This discussion has been closed.