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  • JonCisBack
    JonCisBack Posts: 911
    Warwickshire North Con Hold - #1 target for Lab!
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Thurrock: Tories vs UKIP, recount

    Looks we may have found the second UKIP seat, but not certain.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    Nate Silver joins LordA:

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/liveblogs/uk-general-election-2015/

    His model currently predicts 53 LD seats, and 20 UKIP seats.

    Nate Silver was crap before, and is crap again. Not a shock ;)
    Nate Silver gets plaudits for predicting "all 50 states" when anyone could predict about 45 of them most of the time.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 14s15 seconds ago
    The Tories have increased their majority from 54 to 2,973 in Warwickshire North.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Ave_it said:

    Think we might just fall short of the overall majority now!

    We need to see SW England and SW London results...
  • Brom
    Brom Posts: 3,760
    UKIP back from the dead in Thurrock. Potentially incredible
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    rcs1000 said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    Re Burnley, my old seat, disappointed to see Lab win it - but they didn't win by much.

    Note - Maitliss said the Exit Poll would have the Tories on 20% here. They got 13.5% - note of caution re Lancashire marginals. Could be better for Lab than exit poll predicts!

    Surprised how well LDs did frankly...
    Tory TV not enough?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    isam said:

    Why are people watching the BBC if they don't like the coverage? Its on about 4 other channels!

    Most of the channels are rubbish to be honest. Not enough results, too much chat.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    Re Burnley, my old seat, disappointed to see Lab win it - but they didn't win by much.

    Note - Maitliss said the Exit Poll would have the Tories on 20% here. They got 13.5% - note of caution re Lancashire marginals. Could be better for Lab than exit poll predicts!

    Surprised how well LDs did frankly...
    Tory TV not enough?
    in Burnley, not generally :-)
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Brom said:

    UKIP back from the dead in Thurrock. Potentially incredible

    Not clear who is asking for the recount...
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Apparently the Tories have gained Vale of Clwyd from Labour.

    Number 52 on the Tory target list.
  • Moses_
    Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Scott_P said:

    EICIPM

    @SophyRidgeSky: Labour MPs and party sources are telling me they can't see how Ed Miliband can stay on as leader... #GE2015

    Sophie Ridge Sky - mood in Labour grim
  • CopperSulphate
    CopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    What's the latest prediction based on the swing that has happened so far (excluding Scotland) ?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Vale of Clwyd Tory gain, did some phoning there last monday, Tory candidate friend of a friend
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    HYUFD said:

    Tories forecast to take Eastleigh

    And Itchen, surely?

    Labour is dead on South Coast. Have been saying it for weeks.

  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    LOL
    DavidL said:

    Glad I did not waste my vote on Labour in Dundee West.

  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    rcs1000 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Think we might just fall short of the overall majority now!

    We need to see SW England and SW London results...
    All depends on how the LDs hold up.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Brom said:

    UKIP back from the dead in Thurrock. Potentially incredible

    Could be a similar situation in Thanet.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    SNP win Airdrie and Shotts.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    POEWAS...
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Recount at Ynys Mon.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Feel for the Milbabes.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    John Mann with the knives out
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Jonathan said:

    Burnham is back. Possibly significant.

    No shock. A chimp in a red rosette can and has won Leigh.

  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Were you up for Jim Murphy?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    EMWNBPM.
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    SouthamObserver said:

    Camden New Journal predicting close result in Hampstead & Kilburn. Could be recount territory. Didn't see that one coming, but makes sense given the other London results so far.

    Oh I do hope smug Miss Tulip flops.....
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    Spread betting has Lib Dem at 10.5 - 12.

    How much downside risk is there to buying at 12. Although relying heavily on Swinson result.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Casino_Royale said:

    EMWNBPM.

    Going out on a limb there? :D:D
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Murphy up....
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Chameleon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Think we might just fall short of the overall majority now!

    We need to see SW England and SW London results...
    All depends on how the LDs hold up.
    No real indication so far: Somerset & Frome was forecast by Ashcroft to be a big Con gain
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lab hold Hammersmith and Westminster North
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Where can I get all the results on the internet? BBC and ITV not cutting it
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Murphy moment...
  • Brom
    Brom Posts: 3,760
    KentRising said:

    Brom said:

    UKIP back from the dead in Thurrock. Potentially incredible

    Could be a similar situation in Thanet.
    Wishful thinking but never lose hope until its declared!
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    AndyJS said:

    BBC: Labour out of it in Thurrock.

    Recount between Con and UKIP.

    Someone was laying Cons and UKIP at 2/1 for 400 quid each about an hour ago!
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 49s49 seconds ago
    Newport West constituency result:
    LAB 41.2% (+0.0)
    CON 32.5% (+0.2)
    UKIP 15.2% (+12.3)
    PC 4.0% (+1.2)
    LDEM 3.9% (-12.7)
    GRN 3.2% (+2.0)
    0 retweets 0 favorites
    Reply Retweet Favorite

    Flat vote by labour in Wales - Ed must be on way out.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Murphy...
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Jim Murphy gone.

    If things continue as they are, David Axelrod might earn himself a Tory peerage.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Big Jim gets his cards
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    BOOOOOOOOMMMMMMM Murphy gonw
  • Moses_
    Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Jim Murphy gone

    RIP Scottish Labour
  • dmc82
    dmc82 Posts: 27
    SNP gain RENFREWSHIRE EAST Jim Murphy out
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Lol - 12k for the Tories in Renfrewshire - piss off Jim, we're not voting for ye!
  • Eh_ehm_a_eh
    Eh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Spud gone
  • Kinga
    Kinga Posts: 59
    Murphy is TOASTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Nobody is safe from the SNP.

    Decapitation.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Murphy out .
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Murphy goes down...
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    dr_spyn said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 14s15 seconds ago
    The Tories have increased their majority from 54 to 2,973 in Warwickshire North.

    UKIP again seem to increase their vote by eating into Labour instead of the Tories.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Jim Murphy - he gawwwn
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Cherie Murphy
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Paging BBC: Murphy > Glasgow North.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Murphy's gone too - Labour buggered in Scotland now!
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    SNP... wow...
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Slackbladder said:

    Murphy up....

    Murphy down ....
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Glasgow North.
    Green 3284
    SNP 19k
    Dunno

    East Ren
    SNP 23k
    Murphy dunno SNP win
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Freggles said:

    Where can I get all the results on the internet? BBC and ITV not cutting it

    The PA have a page usually but I can't find it at the moment.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    Iron Bru sales to drop in Renfrewshire East....
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Murphy gone. good grief.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    SNP gain Glasgow N and E Renfrewshire falls to SNP tide and Murphy big scalp
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    Murphy goes down with his ship.
    Good.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Hammersmith Labour hold
  • CopperSulphate
    CopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Jim Murphy looks like Murphy from Robocop.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Wow. Labour utterly demolished in Scotland.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rosschawkins: Lib candidate in Dorset West Ros Kayes tells me she will call for Clegg to go in her speech
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    SNP gain Glasgow North
  • fitalass
    fitalass Posts: 4,444
    edited May 2015
    OMG, this candidate who didn't even understand what FFA or the Barnett formula was, or how they both worked?!! Good luck East Renfrewshire, you deserve the candidate you voted for.....
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Murphy goes down...

  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Is anyone going to put up a list of the top 80 conservative targets from labour sortable and searchable?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    There will be no Labour MPs in Scotland.

    Will it be all SNP?

    Or will O&S or one of the borders seats buck the trend?
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Brom said:

    KentRising said:

    Brom said:

    UKIP back from the dead in Thurrock. Potentially incredible

    Could be a similar situation in Thanet.
    Wishful thinking but never lose hope until its declared!
    No one knows what's going on there. They're not even due to declare until 6am.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Isle Of Wight a Con hold, despite all the rumours.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    CON hold Isle of Wight, which was raised a few times on here in the last few days.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    I was up when key senior opposition members Murphy, Alexander and .... lost their seats
  • Stark_Dawning
    Stark_Dawning Posts: 10,202
    Jim looks pleased it's all over.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    antifrank said:

    Isle Of Wight a Con hold, despite all the rumours.

    What was the margin?
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    >
    corporeal said:

    Spread betting has Lib Dem at 10.5 - 12.

    How much downside risk is there to buying at 12. Although relying heavily on Swinson result.

    Hasn't she already lost?
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Not surprising at all. If SLAB want to get anywhere, it won't be under Jim Murphy.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    Murphy gone. good grief.

    Con vote holding up well, will be interesting later on.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    ITV News ‏@itvnews 34s34 seconds ago
    LAB Hold Rotherham #GE2015#

    might be interesting to see how UKIP turned out.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    SNP gain Airdrie
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    isam said:

    >

    corporeal said:

    Spread betting has Lib Dem at 10.5 - 12.

    How much downside risk is there to buying at 12. Although relying heavily on Swinson result.

    Hasn't she already lost?
    Yes she is out of there
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    All about getting the seats off LD and doing it in Midlands!
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Hammersmith

    Lab +6
    Con 0
  • Eh_ehm_a_eh
    Eh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    fitalass said:

    OMG, this candidate didn't even understand what FFA or the Barnett formula was, or how they both worked?!! Good luck East Renfrewshire, you deserve the candidate you voted for.....

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Murphy goes down...

    Awww! your big SLAB hope gone.

  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no Labour MPs in Scotland.

    Will it be all SNP?

    Or will O&S or one of the borders seats buck the trend?

    When SCUP > SLab. Make it so Scotland.
  • Gadfly
    Gadfly Posts: 1,205
    DavidL said:

    Murphy gone. good grief.

    One of the few Labour MPs I have admired.

  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    ITV News ‏@itvnews 16s17 seconds ago
    CON Hold Isle of Wight #GE2015
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    SNP gain Lanark, etc
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    isam said:

    >

    corporeal said:

    Spread betting has Lib Dem at 10.5 - 12.

    How much downside risk is there to buying at 12. Although relying heavily on Swinson result.

    Hasn't she already lost?
    I think the question is, will other LD candidates (in the borders, CS&ER, and O&S) in Scotland hold up as well as Swinson. If they do, there might be 2 Scottish LD MPs.

    Or there might be none.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Any of the Labour re-treads got elected?
  • saddo
    saddo Posts: 534
    Big issue for Labour post Scottish destruction is it takes out major slice of their political brain power as well as the seats
  • Chris_A
    Chris_A Posts: 1,237
    fitalass said:

    OMG, this candidate didn't even understand what FFA or the Barnett formula was, or how they both worked?!! Good luck East Renfrewshire, you deserve the candidate you voted for.....

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Murphy goes down...

    So the Unionist parties in Scotland will get about 50% of the vote and zero, nil, zilch seats. Still a fan of FPTP?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    rcs1000 said:

    antifrank said:

    Isle Of Wight a Con hold, despite all the rumours.

    What was the margin?
    14k.. LOL
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 34s34 seconds ago
    LAB Hold Rotherham #GE2015#

    might be interesting to see how UKIP turned out.

    What about Rother Valley.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    15 minutess, then it's time for me to go to bed...
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    We await the Con-LD marginals now to see if it's a Cons majority but I'd say it is now nailed on. That Warks North is extraordinary: 3.1% to Cons in Labour's No.1 target. Labour Uncut had it spot on a week ago.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Vale of Clwyd 3.9% swing for Con GAIN off Lab. Who would have predicted that?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806

    New thread

  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Vale of Clwyd!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This discussion has been closed.

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