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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The early results suggest it really is Ajockalypse Now for

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  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Warwickshire North Con Hold - #1 target for Lab!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Thurrock: Tories vs UKIP, recount

    Looks we may have found the second UKIP seat, but not certain.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    Nate Silver joins LordA:

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/liveblogs/uk-general-election-2015/

    His model currently predicts 53 LD seats, and 20 UKIP seats.

    Nate Silver was crap before, and is crap again. Not a shock ;)
    Nate Silver gets plaudits for predicting "all 50 states" when anyone could predict about 45 of them most of the time.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 14s15 seconds ago
    The Tories have increased their majority from 54 to 2,973 in Warwickshire North.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Ave_it said:

    Think we might just fall short of the overall majority now!

    We need to see SW England and SW London results...
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    UKIP back from the dead in Thurrock. Potentially incredible
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    rcs1000 said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    Re Burnley, my old seat, disappointed to see Lab win it - but they didn't win by much.

    Note - Maitliss said the Exit Poll would have the Tories on 20% here. They got 13.5% - note of caution re Lancashire marginals. Could be better for Lab than exit poll predicts!

    Surprised how well LDs did frankly...
    Tory TV not enough?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    isam said:

    Why are people watching the BBC if they don't like the coverage? Its on about 4 other channels!

    Most of the channels are rubbish to be honest. Not enough results, too much chat.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    Re Burnley, my old seat, disappointed to see Lab win it - but they didn't win by much.

    Note - Maitliss said the Exit Poll would have the Tories on 20% here. They got 13.5% - note of caution re Lancashire marginals. Could be better for Lab than exit poll predicts!

    Surprised how well LDs did frankly...
    Tory TV not enough?
    in Burnley, not generally :-)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Brom said:

    UKIP back from the dead in Thurrock. Potentially incredible

    Not clear who is asking for the recount...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Apparently the Tories have gained Vale of Clwyd from Labour.

    Number 52 on the Tory target list.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Scott_P said:

    EICIPM

    @SophyRidgeSky: Labour MPs and party sources are telling me they can't see how Ed Miliband can stay on as leader... #GE2015

    Sophie Ridge Sky - mood in Labour grim
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    What's the latest prediction based on the swing that has happened so far (excluding Scotland) ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Vale of Clwyd Tory gain, did some phoning there last monday, Tory candidate friend of a friend
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    HYUFD said:

    Tories forecast to take Eastleigh

    And Itchen, surely?

    Labour is dead on South Coast. Have been saying it for weeks.

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    LOL
    DavidL said:

    Glad I did not waste my vote on Labour in Dundee West.

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    rcs1000 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Think we might just fall short of the overall majority now!

    We need to see SW England and SW London results...
    All depends on how the LDs hold up.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Brom said:

    UKIP back from the dead in Thurrock. Potentially incredible

    Could be a similar situation in Thanet.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SNP win Airdrie and Shotts.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    POEWAS...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Recount at Ynys Mon.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Feel for the Milbabes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    John Mann with the knives out
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Jonathan said:

    Burnham is back. Possibly significant.

    No shock. A chimp in a red rosette can and has won Leigh.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Were you up for Jim Murphy?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    EMWNBPM.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    SouthamObserver said:

    Camden New Journal predicting close result in Hampstead & Kilburn. Could be recount territory. Didn't see that one coming, but makes sense given the other London results so far.

    Oh I do hope smug Miss Tulip flops.....
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Spread betting has Lib Dem at 10.5 - 12.

    How much downside risk is there to buying at 12. Although relying heavily on Swinson result.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Casino_Royale said:

    EMWNBPM.

    Going out on a limb there? :D:D
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Murphy up....
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lab hold Hammersmith and Westminster North
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Chameleon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Think we might just fall short of the overall majority now!

    We need to see SW England and SW London results...
    All depends on how the LDs hold up.
    No real indication so far: Somerset & Frome was forecast by Ashcroft to be a big Con gain
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Where can I get all the results on the internet? BBC and ITV not cutting it
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Murphy moment...
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    KentRising said:

    Brom said:

    UKIP back from the dead in Thurrock. Potentially incredible

    Could be a similar situation in Thanet.
    Wishful thinking but never lose hope until its declared!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AndyJS said:

    BBC: Labour out of it in Thurrock.

    Recount between Con and UKIP.

    Someone was laying Cons and UKIP at 2/1 for 400 quid each about an hour ago!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 49s49 seconds ago
    Newport West constituency result:
    LAB 41.2% (+0.0)
    CON 32.5% (+0.2)
    UKIP 15.2% (+12.3)
    PC 4.0% (+1.2)
    LDEM 3.9% (-12.7)
    GRN 3.2% (+2.0)
    0 retweets 0 favorites
    Reply Retweet Favorite

    Flat vote by labour in Wales - Ed must be on way out.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Murphy...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,234
    Big Jim gets his cards
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Jim Murphy gone.

    If things continue as they are, David Axelrod might earn himself a Tory peerage.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    BOOOOOOOOMMMMMMM Murphy gonw
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Jim Murphy gone

    RIP Scottish Labour
  • dmc82dmc82 Posts: 27
    SNP gain RENFREWSHIRE EAST Jim Murphy out
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Lol - 12k for the Tories in Renfrewshire - piss off Jim, we're not voting for ye!
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Spud gone
  • KingaKinga Posts: 59
    Murphy is TOASTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Nobody is safe from the SNP.

    Decapitation.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Murphy out .
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Murphy goes down...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    dr_spyn said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 14s15 seconds ago
    The Tories have increased their majority from 54 to 2,973 in Warwickshire North.

    UKIP again seem to increase their vote by eating into Labour instead of the Tories.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Jim Murphy - he gawwwn
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Cherie Murphy
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Paging BBC: Murphy > Glasgow North.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Murphy's gone too - Labour buggered in Scotland now!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Slackbladder said:

    Murphy up....

    Murphy down ....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    SNP... wow...
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Glasgow North.
    Green 3284
    SNP 19k
    Dunno

    East Ren
    SNP 23k
    Murphy dunno SNP win
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Freggles said:

    Where can I get all the results on the internet? BBC and ITV not cutting it

    The PA have a page usually but I can't find it at the moment.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Iron Bru sales to drop in Renfrewshire East....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Murphy gone. good grief.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    SNP gain Glasgow N and E Renfrewshire falls to SNP tide and Murphy big scalp
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    Murphy goes down with his ship.
    Good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Hammersmith Labour hold
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Jim Murphy looks like Murphy from Robocop.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Wow. Labour utterly demolished in Scotland.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rosschawkins: Lib candidate in Dorset West Ros Kayes tells me she will call for Clegg to go in her speech
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    SNP gain Glasgow North
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited May 2015
    OMG, this candidate who didn't even understand what FFA or the Barnett formula was, or how they both worked?!! Good luck East Renfrewshire, you deserve the candidate you voted for.....
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Murphy goes down...

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Is anyone going to put up a list of the top 80 conservative targets from labour sortable and searchable?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    There will be no Labour MPs in Scotland.

    Will it be all SNP?

    Or will O&S or one of the borders seats buck the trend?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Brom said:

    KentRising said:

    Brom said:

    UKIP back from the dead in Thurrock. Potentially incredible

    Could be a similar situation in Thanet.
    Wishful thinking but never lose hope until its declared!
    No one knows what's going on there. They're not even due to declare until 6am.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Isle Of Wight a Con hold, despite all the rumours.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    CON hold Isle of Wight, which was raised a few times on here in the last few days.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    I was up when key senior opposition members Murphy, Alexander and .... lost their seats
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,714
    Jim looks pleased it's all over.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    antifrank said:

    Isle Of Wight a Con hold, despite all the rumours.

    What was the margin?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    >
    corporeal said:

    Spread betting has Lib Dem at 10.5 - 12.

    How much downside risk is there to buying at 12. Although relying heavily on Swinson result.

    Hasn't she already lost?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Not surprising at all. If SLAB want to get anywhere, it won't be under Jim Murphy.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    Murphy gone. good grief.

    Con vote holding up well, will be interesting later on.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    ITV News ‏@itvnews 34s34 seconds ago
    LAB Hold Rotherham #GE2015#

    might be interesting to see how UKIP turned out.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    SNP gain Airdrie
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    isam said:

    >

    corporeal said:

    Spread betting has Lib Dem at 10.5 - 12.

    How much downside risk is there to buying at 12. Although relying heavily on Swinson result.

    Hasn't she already lost?
    Yes she is out of there
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    All about getting the seats off LD and doing it in Midlands!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Hammersmith

    Lab +6
    Con 0
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    fitalass said:

    OMG, this candidate didn't even understand what FFA or the Barnett formula was, or how they both worked?!! Good luck East Renfrewshire, you deserve the candidate you voted for.....

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Murphy goes down...

    Awww! your big SLAB hope gone.

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no Labour MPs in Scotland.

    Will it be all SNP?

    Or will O&S or one of the borders seats buck the trend?

    When SCUP > SLab. Make it so Scotland.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    DavidL said:

    Murphy gone. good grief.

    One of the few Labour MPs I have admired.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    ITV News ‏@itvnews 16s17 seconds ago
    CON Hold Isle of Wight #GE2015
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    SNP gain Lanark, etc
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    isam said:

    >

    corporeal said:

    Spread betting has Lib Dem at 10.5 - 12.

    How much downside risk is there to buying at 12. Although relying heavily on Swinson result.

    Hasn't she already lost?
    I think the question is, will other LD candidates (in the borders, CS&ER, and O&S) in Scotland hold up as well as Swinson. If they do, there might be 2 Scottish LD MPs.

    Or there might be none.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Any of the Labour re-treads got elected?
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Big issue for Labour post Scottish destruction is it takes out major slice of their political brain power as well as the seats
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    fitalass said:

    OMG, this candidate didn't even understand what FFA or the Barnett formula was, or how they both worked?!! Good luck East Renfrewshire, you deserve the candidate you voted for.....

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Murphy goes down...

    So the Unionist parties in Scotland will get about 50% of the vote and zero, nil, zilch seats. Still a fan of FPTP?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    rcs1000 said:

    antifrank said:

    Isle Of Wight a Con hold, despite all the rumours.

    What was the margin?
    14k.. LOL
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 34s34 seconds ago
    LAB Hold Rotherham #GE2015#

    might be interesting to see how UKIP turned out.

    What about Rother Valley.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    15 minutess, then it's time for me to go to bed...
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    We await the Con-LD marginals now to see if it's a Cons majority but I'd say it is now nailed on. That Warks North is extraordinary: 3.1% to Cons in Labour's No.1 target. Labour Uncut had it spot on a week ago.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Vale of Clwyd 3.9% swing for Con GAIN off Lab. Who would have predicted that?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978

    New thread

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Speedy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 34s34 seconds ago
    LAB Hold Rotherham #GE2015#

    might be interesting to see how UKIP turned out.

    What about Rother Valley.
    Nope.
    Nick Lowles ‏@lowles_nick 6m6 minutes ago
    UKIP well beaten in Rother Valley, another key target
This discussion has been closed.