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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The early results suggest it really is Ajockalypse Now for

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  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766

    Tories increase their maj in Swindon South

    Gobsmacking
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    Swindon South - Con hold on 22,777.

    That is a little more than holding on!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    LD switchers clearly important, breaking for Dave.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328

    Cyclefree said:

    Our own Nick P is still an ex-MP, according to the Beeb ticker........

    Count still in early stage and I'm told it appears to be close and not yet a clear result, though it would be frankly odd if we gained it in the current national and regional picture. Going over to the count shortly so will sign off in a bit.

    OK, thanks. I wish you personally the best, whatever the result.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MichaelPDeacon: Pretty galling to find out that even though I've been taking the piss out of Ed Miliband for three years I've still overestimated him
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    he's missed himself off the list

    Tim Montgomerie ن ‏@montie · 4m4 minutes ago
    Biggest losers of the night: Scottish Labour? LibDems? Pollsters? Farage? Galloway? Tory leadership hopefuls?

    Biggest winners are David Cameron and the SNP - would expect DC to make a generous offer to Scotland
    I think he can safely ignore them, he needs the SNP boogeyman under the present conditions to win elections.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    BBC behind the times again.
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346

    Monty said:

    In my heart I'm not surprised Labour has failed even though it's painful. They haven't found their voice in the modern age yet, and it shows.
    I'm very pleased UKIP has crashed and burned though.
    It isn't healthy for democracy having a reactionary far right group doing well.
    I am worried about Scottish nationalism. Nationalism is an ugly ideology and I fear we will increasingly see that in Scotland.

    Well UKIP are not a reactionary right group. And they have hardly crashed and burned given that it looks like they will end up well into double figures of the vote share
    Well, Farage has lost it seems. And no more than 2 seats max to boot.
    That's what crashing and burns looks like to me.
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Monty said:

    I'm very pleased UKIP has crashed and burned though.
    It isn't healthy for democracy having a reactionary far right group doing well.
    .

    Surely the whole point of democracy is to reflect the will of the people. It isn't "democracy" if one can only vote for the parties or people you approve of.

    FWIW, I don't think it's "democracy" if UKip only win 1-2 seats on, what, 13-14% of the popular vote. Surely their supporters deserve to have their views represented? But that's the system we have.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @itvnews: CON Gain Colchester #GE2015
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    "Politics is a complex business" Tessa Jowell
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    2% swing in Swindon S to CON
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    I think LibDem tactical voters went to Cons, but Cons voters (like TSE) stayed with with the Cons...
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Well Tessa, they lied to you. And you badly need a new leader, a new direction...a new everything.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    I think Labour need a new spin line...the Exit Poll is terribly wrong, it isn't what people told us, just is looking very silly now.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    i really hope Labour keep Ed. And the stone. Keep wheeling it out - keep getting Tory governments.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Swing to Con in Darlington, albeit 0.1.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Mensch is on C4
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    Tessa Jowell can't believe it. Doesn't believe exit poll. Can't believe results. Doesn't reflect what she saw on the ground.

    What is she even suggesting?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: Another body blow to Labour. If this continues, Miliband will surely have to quit Hague-style tmrw https://t.co/95dxHOQqeE
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Tessa Jowell looking tired and emotional. Wow
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Scott_P said:

    @itvnews: CON Gain Colchester #GE2015

    Sir Bob has gone.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Swindon South another awful result for Labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Freggles said:

    Chameleon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Castle Point

    Con: 23,112
    UKIP: 14,178

    Wow. Big Con hold.

    Con won't lose many to UKIP. Labour on the other hand are looking much more venerable.
    UKIP not doing very well outside the NE. I think proximity to Scotland has increased the vote there.

    It will be interesting to see some WWC seats in the Midlands and North. I have my eyes on Leicester West locally.
    Hartlepool will be interesting, but even up here there is still considerable stigma attached to Ukip.
    Shy UKip
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525

    Dair said:

    SNP are on the way to well over 50% of teh vote.

    These swings are more than Exit Poll.

    when is the first seat against SLD or SCUP? those could be interesting.
    Fife NE (Ming's old seat) due soon. Most of the rest are not likely until after 3:30
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393

    Well Tessa, they lied to you. And you badly need a new leader, a new direction...a new everything.

    "I cannot reconcile these results with what I heard on the doorstep" hahahahaha
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    rcs1000 said:

    I think LibDem tactical voters went to Cons, but Cons voters (like TSE) stayed with with the Cons...

    I feel incredibly guilty now.

    The Tory party has shafted the Lib Dems.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Motherwell
    SNP
    Labour 15377

    Dair said:

    SNP are on the way to well over 50% of teh vote.

    These swings are more than Exit Poll.

    when is the first seat against SLD or SCUP? those could be interesting.
    Ages some of these constituencies are huge. Ross and Skye is bigger than Northern Ireland.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    SDLP hold South Belfast..and I will have lost a notable amount of money.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Jonathan said:

    LD switchers clearly important, breaking for Dave.

    Labour's policy of throwing insults non-stop at the Lib Dems and their voters obviously didn't have the desired effect.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Peterborough is a Tory hold, contrary to the latest Ashcroft poll.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Labour hold Hartlepool.

    Ian Reeve @IanReevebiz · 4m 4 minutes ago
    Hartlepool's Cons candidate, Richard Royal, conceded he'll be third. UKIP second. Lab win, he says. #GE2015

    I really don't know where the second UKIP seat will be.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    can I also thank Lord A for his polls helping to completely blind side his tory opponents....
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    ITV News ‏@itvnews 8s9 seconds ago
    CON Gain Brecon & Radnorshire #GE2015
    0 retweets 0 favorites
    Reply Retweet Favorite
    More
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Con confident of increased majority in Pendle
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @MichaelPDeacon: Pretty galling to find out that even though I've been taking the piss out of Ed Miliband for three years I've still overestimated him

    Arf - harsh but fair :lol:
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Right, the first seat not SNP we'll send the boys round.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    I think LibDem tactical voters went to Cons, but Cons voters (like TSE) stayed with with the Cons...

    It has been said before: Cons do not do tactical voting. it is both a problem and a benefit.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    I feel sorry for Dan Hodges.

    Was right about Ed Miliband, but we all have to see his knackers in public

    Did you vote Tory? I ended up voting Labour - but yet I'm gleefully laughing at all the, shall we say, "suboptimal" Lab results so far :)
    Why'd you vote Labour, out of interest Sunil?
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    CON GAIN BRECON - ITV
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    East Dunbartonshire - GET IN
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Scott_P said:

    Polly's feed is s thing of beauty tonight

    @pollytoynbee: Cameron wins now - but he risks losing the history books: the little Englander who broke the Union and took the UK out of the EU.

    Haha now opposition are blaming Cameron for the SNP win. You can't make it up.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Peterborough coming up
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Ah spam filter! Tories gain Vale of Clwyd!!!!! 52nd on their list.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 60 s 60 secondi fa
    Conservative sources say it looks like they've won Vale of Clwyd. A surprise win for them and a big upset for Labour.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    In Peterborough they are all mad, right?
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Can;t work out which of the many astonishing things is the most astonishing

    Polls utterly wrong
    LDs collapsing out of sight
    SNP getting 35% swings
    Labour going backwards
    Tory absolute majority on the cards

    unbelievable stuff happening at every turn
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Saltire said:

    Dair said:

    SNP are on the way to well over 50% of teh vote.

    These swings are more than Exit Poll.

    when is the first seat against SLD or SCUP? those could be interesting.
    Fife NE (Ming's old seat) due soon. Most of the rest are not likely until after 3:30
    Also Swinston's seat now declaring
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504

    Well Tessa, they lied to you. And you badly need a new leader, a new direction...a new everything.

    It's a common trait that we only hear what we want to hear. We all fall foul of it at times.

    Add in the fact that people sometimes lie to tell us what we want to hear, and such anecdata is rather flawed.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706

    rcs1000 said:

    I think LibDem tactical voters went to Cons, but Cons voters (like TSE) stayed with with the Cons...

    I feel incredibly guilty now.

    The Tory party has shafted the Lib Dems.
    That was a strategy started in 2005. Planned and executed to perfection.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Majority game on....
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Conservatives have won Brecon and Radnorshire from the Lib Dems.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    I'm sorry.. but what the hell is going on????
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Brom said:

    UKIP smashing it in the north and struggling in the south. Confusing!

    Northern kippers could vote with impunity; southern kippers couldn't - too much at stake. Glad I added to the southern kipper tally, but gutted for Farage - a big loss to parliament.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927

    Scott_P said:

    Polly's feed is s thing of beauty tonight

    @pollytoynbee: Cameron wins now - but he risks losing the history books: the little Englander who broke the Union and took the UK out of the EU.

    Haha now opposition are blaming Cameron for the SNP win. You can't make it up.
    There seems to be a peculiar line coming out that it's the Tories fault Labour are losing their seats in Scotland because it's the Tories fault the Nationalists are doing well.

    It's all a bit fatuous. But then in Labourland anything that doesn't work out for them = the fault of the Tories.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Oh god Stewart Jackson is back...sigh...
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Jo Swinson puts up a fight.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    edited May 2015
    Swinston loses by about 2000 to SNP
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Con hold Peterborough. The Noble Lord wasted his money on his polls.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Paul Waugh retweeted
    Carrie Symonds ‏@carrieapples 1m1 minute ago London, England
    CON Gain Colchester
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Do the BBC actually have cameras at counts?!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Slightly dodgy result for us in Peterborough - nice friendly atmosphere at the count!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    Blueberry said:

    Brom said:

    UKIP smashing it in the north and struggling in the south. Confusing!

    Northern kippers could vote with impunity; southern kippers couldn't - too much at stake. Glad I added to the southern kipper tally, but gutted for Farage - a big loss to parliament.
    I was a Tory and voted Ukip in Woking and I'd like to think I'd have done the same in at Tory-Labour marginal. But it looks a fair point that you make.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SWINSON Out.

    SNP win.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 60 s 60 secondi fa
    Conservative sources say it looks like they've won Vale of Clwyd. A surprise win for them and a big upset for Labour.

    Tory majority on.
    Saltire said:

    Saltire said:

    Dair said:

    SNP are on the way to well over 50% of teh vote.

    These swings are more than Exit Poll.


    when is the first seat against SLD or SCUP? those could be interesting.
    Fife NE (Ming's old seat) due soon. Most of the rest are not likely until after 3:30
    Also Swinston's seat now declaring
    Isn't that supposed to be close?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    In Peterborough they are all mad, right?

    Yes
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Peterborough Tory hold, Lord A got that wrong then
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    Dair said:

    Motherwell
    SNP
    Labour 15377

    Dair said:

    SNP are on the way to well over 50% of teh vote.

    These swings are more than Exit Poll.

    when is the first seat against SLD or SCUP? those could be interesting.
    Ages some of these constituencies are huge. Ross and Skye is bigger than Northern Ireland.
    Useless fact: Argyll and Bute has a longer coastline than the entirety of France.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Dumbartonshire East

    SNP 22,093
    LD 19,926


  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    I'm sorry.. but what the hell is going on????

    England and Wales has voted against the SNP.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    A shame that Jo Swinson has gone..
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Swinson loses but only by 2,133. If a few more Tories had voted tactically she could have survived:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/S14000018
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Are we looking at a Tory landslide here?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Aww.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    That was close in Dunbartonshire East
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Swinson only just edged out...
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Why?! Have you even bothered to follow the utterly negative and totally unpleasant Labour campaign against Soubry in this seat over the last five years?! Sometimes actions speak louder than words, and I suspect that Soubry's actions fighting for her constituents rather than Nick fighting Soubry personally went along way to sealing the result in this seat.
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Our own Nick P is still an ex-MP, according to the Beeb ticker........

    Count still in early stage and I'm told it appears to be close and not yet a clear result, though it would be frankly odd if we gained it in the current national and regional picture. Going over to the count shortly so will sign off in a bit.

    OK, thanks. I wish you personally the best, whatever the result.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    alex. said:

    Are we looking at a Tory landslide here?

    Don't say those words.. you'll jinx it!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Not a bad effort by Jo Swinson considering what else is going on in Scotland but another one bites the dust. Tactical voting by tories unsuccessful.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Artist said:

    A shame that Jo Swinson has gone..

    Rubbish. That was one of my 50/1 shots.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Dair said:

    SWINSON Out.

    SNP win.

    Only 2% down for the Libdems. It was the SNP going up by 30% that won it.
  • dmc82dmc82 Posts: 27
    SNP gain Kirkcaldy
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    ITV coverage seems simple, gimmick free, but interesting and getting results out
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    DUP GAIN - Belfast East from Alliance
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Looking good for Lucas in Brighton. Reckon I'll be owing Neil fifty quid :)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Peterborough Tory hold, Lord A got that wrong then

    I don't think he's got anything right apart from Scotland, and even there he underestimated the SNP.

    Worst pollster in the world.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Er we haven't gained a seat yet!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Jo Swinson puts up a fight.

    A much closer fight than SLAB put up. She is young enough to get back in next time round, I certainly hope so.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    DavidL said:

    Not a bad effort by Jo Swinson considering what else is going on in Scotland but another one bites the dust. Tactical voting by tories unsuccessful.

    or "insufficient" :-)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Tories Anti-SNP vote strategy a masterstroke
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 60 s 60 secondi fa
    Conservative sources say it looks like they've won Vale of Clwyd. A surprise win for them and a big upset for Labour.

    Ed must now be dragging the resignation speech out and putting the victory speech back in the box
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Ave_it said:

    Er we haven't gained a seat yet!

    Titter.. something about chickens and counting?
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Rutherglen 21k majority gooooonne
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Looks like UKIP are going to have to adopt some left wing policies. I know Steven Woolfe was talking about the benefits of nationalising railways.
  • Flockers_pbFlockers_pb Posts: 204
    Random winner of the night: Danny Alexander. When he managed the press office of the Cairn Gorms National Park he never expected to be made a Lord of the realm...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150

    I feel sorry for Dan Hodges.

    Was right about Ed Miliband, but we all have to see his knackers in public

    Did you vote Tory? I ended up voting Labour - but yet I'm gleefully laughing at all the, shall we say, "suboptimal" Lab results so far :)
    I did
    I salute your indefatigability etc, etc :smile: 0
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    Lucy Powell alert!!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Lucy Powell alert!!!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656

    Jo Swinson puts up a fight.

    A much closer fight than SLAB put up. She is young enough to get back in next time round, I certainly hope so.
    Ashcroft called that one broadly right. LDs actually did slightly better than the polls.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    They've let her out!
This discussion has been closed.