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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The early results suggest it really is Ajockalypse Now for

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    HA HA - Dan Hodges on Sky now, trying to understand why it's all gone wrong.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    antifrank said:

    Oh good, Labour won Ealing Central & Acton. That was one I had in my quiver.

    Balls, well I suppose a few losses are likely.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    "Ross and Skye is bigger than Northern Ireland."

    Wikipedia puts Ross, Skye and Lochaber at 12,000 square kilometres and Northern Ireland just short of 14,000 square kilometres, so I don't think this is quite true.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Fraser Nelson: Ed has no option but to resign tomorrow.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Ed should pledge his tablet for use in building affordable housing if he gets in in 2020.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    When does balls seat declare
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Any news about whether Gisela Stuart is safe in Edgbaston?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Gadfly said:

    https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/596490822784167936

    Well, as he's a Telegraph journo he loves the ones who voted Conservative only.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Casino_Royale said:

    1st Labour gain from Conservative: Ealing Central and Acton.

    Phew.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    labour don't take target seat no. 1 - still nothing discussed on bbc.... where's the tv remote
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Warks North - i think there is all the evidence you need that UKIP haven't damaged the Tories
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    labour don't take target seat no. 1 - still nothing discussed on bbc.... where's the tv remote

    North Warks.?!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    No where NEAR in Warwickshire North
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    A majority is on for the Tories.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Warwickshire North:

    Con 20,047
    Lab 17,069
    UKIP 8,256
    LD 978
    Green 894
    TUSC 138
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    labour don't take target seat no. 1 - still nothing discussed on bbc.... where's the tv remote

    Nor the delicious result in Swindon South.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    7% LibDem -> Con swing...
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Big Ben Swingometers!
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Jim Murphy doesnt look happy
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Con +4.7 in Ealing but still lost
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Ed Balls count about 4.30
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    labour don't take target seat no. 1 - still nothing discussed on bbc.... where's the tv remote

    They'll mention it in half an hour.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    LOL
    DavidL said:

    Glad I did not waste my vote on Labour in Dundee West.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    CopperSulphate said:

    Ed should pledge his tablet for use in building affordable housing if he gets in in 2020.

    They'd better wallpaper over the pledges text. Waking up to see that every morning would give you nightmares.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    LD -> Lab also 7%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Chameleon said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    labour don't take target seat no. 1 - still nothing discussed on bbc.... where's the tv remote

    North Warks.?!
    Swing to CON.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Bugger
    Burnham survives
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    AndyJS said:

    Warwickshire North:

    Con 20,047
    Lab 17,069
    UKIP 8,256
    LD 978
    Green 894
    TUSC 138

    Wow, majority on.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    "JackW Dozen" :

    Warwickshire North - Con Hold - Yes
    Ochil S Perthshire SNP Gain - Yes
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Increased majority for Warwickshire North.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    UKIP 9000 votes in Burnham's constituency.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Why has the BBC not shown Burnley. This is a disgrace.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Labour Uncut article was right.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    All this nonsense from Vine on swingometers seem to imply the Tories on 327.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Con hold Worcester
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    The Midlands was always going to be horrible for Labour, but not even I thought it would be this bad. It's no great surprise though.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Increased majority for Warwickshire North.

    Incredible. BBC coverage is terrible :(
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Is streaking even legal? Would be quite amusing to see Hodges taken away in handcuffs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    JackW said:

    "JackW Dozen" :

    Warwickshire North - Con Hold - Yes
    Ochil S Perthshire SNP Gain - Yes

    Well done Jack

    Leader ratings are the gold standard
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Labour take Ealing Central and Acton in one of its first gains at 3am, but fail to take Warwickshire N
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited May 2015
    After all the abuse Dan Hodges has taken on this site in recent years, you would now expect there to be a lengthy queue forming to admit that he called this election right from way out.
    Stark_Dawning said:

    dr_spyn said:

    SNP Gain Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath #GE2015

    Well, the mighty Hodges got that one wrong - he thought Labour would just hang on. Still, you can't be right about everything.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    MyBurningEars said:

    "Ross and Skye is bigger than Northern Ireland."

    Wikipedia puts Ross, Skye and Lochaber at 12,000 square kilometres and Northern Ireland just short of 14,000 square kilometres, so I don't think this is quite true.

    Could be a metric thing. Is it bigger in Imperial measurements?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    BBC coverage is dire - few live results compared to sky - too much chat waiting.

    Balls too close to call - Kussenberg.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    EICIPM

    @SophyRidgeSky: Labour MPs and party sources are telling me they can't see how Ed Miliband can stay on as leader... #GE2015
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    DavidL said:

    Why has the BBC not shown Burnley. This is a disgrace.

    That was one of the dead cert Lab gains from LibDem...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    Next leader of the Labour Party on Sky
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    One thing that I can say.
    The swingometer still works.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Burnham going for an anti-london line...
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    boundary changes on the way
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    BALLS TCTC
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    WTF are the BBC doing....I have both BBC and Sky on and BBC are just wittering as there are all these results coming in...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Burnham moaning about the boundaries...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Ealing another Labour gain. Not on the TV though.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    North East Party less than 30 seats from the Lib Dems in Easington
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Renfrewshire East... also an SNP gain
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    MP_SE said:

    Is streaking even legal? Would be quite amusing to see Hodges taken away in handcuffs.

    One testicle in each cuff.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Con hold Worcester, some good Tory results in Wales gaining Brecon and holding Aberconwy
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Chris_A said:

    All this nonsense from Vine on swingometers seem to imply the Tories on 327.

    Only that? I fear they could have bigger gains tbh....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    When do we get Borders results?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    ITV News ‏@itvnews 10s11 seconds ago
    CON Gain Vale of Clwyd #GE2015
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Lab got 3% swing in Peterborough - better result than others
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Philip_Thompson said:

    corporeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Forget 5 or 7 party nonsense, we have 2 party politics well and truly. With NI and Scotland being their own bubble.

    The votes don't show that.
    The seats do. 97% of England and Wales seats between the two parties.
    Electoral system defeating the public's will.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    R5L news headlines 03.00: SNP bias.

    Twice in a row. I mean, it's not as if it's the biggest story so far. Scrap the licence fee!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    4% Con to Lab swing in Ealing - Lab GAIN
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    tlg86 said:

    Next leader of the Labour Party on Sky

    Dan Hodges?
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Re Burnley, my old seat, disappointed to see Lab win it - but they didn't win by much.

    Note - Maitliss said the Exit Poll would have the Tories on 20% here. They got 13.5% - note of caution re Lancashire marginals. Could be better for Lab than exit poll predicts!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 10s11 seconds ago
    CON Gain Vale of Clwyd #GE2015

    Pretty important result.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Unbelievable election.

    UNS is dead.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Prodicus said:

    Ed Balls count about 4.30

    Thanks
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    CopperSulphate said:

    MP_SE said:

    Is streaking even legal? Would be quite amusing to see Hodges taken away in handcuffs.

    One testicle in each cuff.
    Lol. Hopefully he sets a date and time to ensure a good turnout.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    Slackbladder said:

    tlg86 said:

    Next leader of the Labour Party on Sky

    Dan Hodges?
    I was thinking Andy Burnham!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    WTF are the BBC doing....I have both BBC and Sky on and BBC are just wittering as there are all these results coming in...

    They're not even trying to report every result. Farce.

    Only Sky and ITV are on the ball.

    Con HOLD Gosport.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Bob__Sykes said:

    Re Burnley, my old seat, disappointed to see Lab win it - but they didn't win by much.

    Note - Maitliss said the Exit Poll would have the Tories on 20% here. They got 13.5% - note of caution re Lancashire marginals. Could be better for Lab than exit poll predicts!

    Surprised how well LDs did frankly...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Chameleon said:

    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 10s11 seconds ago
    CON Gain Vale of Clwyd #GE2015

    Pretty important result.
    Look out for Delyn and Alyn & Deeside
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    Nate Silver joins LordA:

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/liveblogs/uk-general-election-2015/

    His model currently predicts 53 LD seats, and 20 UKIP seats.

    Follow


    Thomas Lumley @tslumley · 5m 5 minutes ago
    @NateSilver538 @juhasaarinen It *had* stabilised, but there was just a really weird UKIP jump.
    Embedded image permalink
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    KentRising said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    WTF are the BBC doing....I have both BBC and Sky on and BBC are just wittering as there are all these results coming in...

    They're not even trying to report every result. Farce.

    Only Sky and ITV are on the ball.

    Con HOLD Gosport.
    There not even doing the important ones... Too much obsessing over the SNP.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Why are people watching the BBC if they don't like the coverage? Its on about 4 other channels!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Thurrock: Tories vs UKIP, recount
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ArifBBC: Lab sources suggest Will Straw (Jack Straw's son) has not won Rossendale & Darwen. Conservative Jake Berry likely to survive. #GE2015
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BBC: Labour out of it in Thurrock.

    Recount between Con and UKIP.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Speedy said:

    Nate Silver joins LordA:

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/liveblogs/uk-general-election-2015/

    His model currently predicts 53 LD seats, and 20 UKIP seats.

    Nate Silver was crap before, and is crap again. Not a shock ;)
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    CON hold my UK constituency of Gosport. Well done Caroline Dineage.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    JUS News ‏@JUS_News 24s25 seconds ago
    Sheffield Hallam voter turnout confirmed at 76.85%. #GE2015
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SNP are winning every damn thing in Scotland.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    AndyJS said:

    BBC: Labour out of it in Thurrock.

    Recount between Con and UKIP.

    Exciting! :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Eastleigh Con gain
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    RodCrosby said:

    Chameleon said:

    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 10s11 seconds ago
    CON Gain Vale of Clwyd #GE2015

    Pretty important result.
    Look out for Delyn and Alyn & Deeside
    All advised on here at double figures, as well as Gower.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Labour never really seems to acknowledge what happened in scotland, now they're paying the price.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 26s26 seconds ago
    Tories HOLD Warwickshire North. Labour's number one target seat.
    0 retweets 0 favorites
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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Right, I'm off. Let's hope Balls loses his seat. Night, everyone.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Speedy Lord A got Worcester and Ealing right, he did have one national poll with a 6/7 point Tory lead
  • Tony_MTony_M Posts: 70
    edited May 2015
    Chris_A said:

    So if Balls goes, should it be the Warre 99 or the Graham 85?

    Always the Warre, Chris. Have a wee one for me!
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    rcs1000 said:

    Eastleigh Con gain

    I'm a winner
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    25 minutes and then I need to go to bed :-)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    isam said:

    Why are people watching the BBC if they don't like the coverage? Its on about 4 other channels!

    I have the luxury of multi-tv setup :-)
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Think we might just fall short of the overall majority now!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    Burnham is back. Possibly significant.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    isam said:

    Why are people watching the BBC if they don't like the coverage? Its on about 4 other channels!

    So they can continue to whinge about the licence fee?...

    Interesting Charter renewal coming up
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Tories forecast to take Eastleigh
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Stick a yellow rosette on a Monkey and weigh the votes.
This discussion has been closed.