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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The early results suggest it really is Ajockalypse Now for

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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,274
    Swings under 30 percent to SNP now look poor!
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,783
    Castle Point

    Con: 23,112
    UKIP: 14,178

    Wow. Big Con hold.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,887
    Nowhere near for UKIP in Castle Point..
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306
    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    Swing in Falkirk a measly 26%

    Broken, sleazy SNP on the slide???
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    dmc82dmc82 Posts: 27
    CON hold Castle Point
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited May 2015
    Huge Tory win on Canvey Island (comparatively)
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Tories hold castle point with ease
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    UKIP fall well short in Castle Point then?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,281
    Monty SNP on 49% still not a majority in Scottish vote, and some of those will be No voters voting SNP for more powers
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,063
    Castle point nowhere near for ukip
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Castle Point - Con hold,
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Castle point LD 80 :lol::lol::lol:
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    saddened said:

    FPT, BenM, and other Labour supporters who have taken this magnanimously

    BenM has always played a straight bat - good economic indicators were 'good news for the government' - not 'yes, but what about.....'
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306
    rcs1000 said:

    Castle Point

    Con: 23,112
    UKIP: 14,178

    Wow. Big Con hold.

    Wasn't this a big target for them?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2015
    kippers short by 9 000 in Castle Point.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,080
    Castle Point easy hold.
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    CreidekkiCreidekki Posts: 18
    Bugger. I've got to work in about 5 hours. Not sure I'll be very productive today
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Castle Point

    Con: 23,112
    UKIP: 14,178

    Wow. Big Con hold.

    Will UKIP have any seats?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,281
    Castle Point clear Tory hold
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    First losing bet! Con hold Castle Point
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181
    rcs1000 said:

    Castle Point

    Con: 23,112
    UKIP: 14,178

    Wow. Big Con hold.

    Con won't lose many to UKIP. Labour on the other hand are looking much more venerable.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Lib Dems 80 in Castle Point?!
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    GravitationGravitation Posts: 281
    Castle Point Con hold with big majority.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,786
    Chris_A said:

    Can't believe that the BBC forecast hasn't changed at all

    They're too busy drowning their sorrows with their champagne.
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    UKIP stuffed. Hurrah
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SNP are on the way to well over 50% of teh vote.

    These swings are more than Exit Poll.
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    CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    edited May 2015
    Green party candidate clearly couldn't be bothered to get changed for the count in Castle Point.
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    Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    East Kilbride tick
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,921
    I feel sorry for Dan Hodges.

    Was right about Ed Miliband, but we all have to see his knackers in public
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    isam said:

    First losing bet! Con hold Castle Point

    You're going to lose a lot more on UKIP on that basis
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,783
    I thought UKIP would win Castle Point.

    Best hope for UKIP now is the northern Labour seats.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    Looks like the only chances of UKIP adding to Clacton are with Labour seats.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181
    Seems to be some considerable Con-Lab swing in safe Lab seats.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,928
    Wasn't Castle Point a big UKIP target?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Forget 5 or 7 party nonsense, we have 2 party politics well and truly. With NI and Scotland being their own bubble.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,281
    Speedy If Labour look like they can win a majority without the SNP then they can win England and Wales, they certainly need a better leader, Cooper, Burnham and Umunna would all be far better than Ed but it will be a tough fight
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,282
    HYUFD said:

    Monty SNP on 49% still not a majority in Scottish vote, and some of those will be No voters voting SNP for more powers

    Oh give it up you can't accept the SN P pissing up

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Changes in Fareham:

    Con +0.8%
    UKIP +11.3%
    Lab +0.1%
    LD -15.0%
    Greens +2.4%

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000699
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,063
    he's missed himself off the list

    Tim Montgomerie ن ‏@montie · 4m4 minutes ago
    Biggest losers of the night: Scottish Labour? LibDems? Pollsters? Farage? Galloway? Tory leadership hopefuls?

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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,521
    rcs1000 said:

    I thought UKIP would win Castle Point.

    Best hope for UKIP now is the northern Labour seats.

    I'd really like them to win Rotherham, but it's unlikely.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/596487549075456001

    Forgot about the EU referendum because it looked like Hung Parliament nailed on.
    Looks like it's on like Donkey Kong
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,783
    KentRising said:

    Looks like the only chances of UKIP adding to Clacton are with Labour seats.

    I suspect the SNP surge hit UKIP in Conservative held seats...
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Forget 5 or 7 party nonsense, we have 2 party politics well and truly. With NI and Scotland being their own bubble.

    The votes don't show that.
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    Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Motherwell & Wishaw. tick
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Maybe very few CON gains from LAB - will need to take them from LD
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    East Kilbride

    SNP 33678
    Labour 17151
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    MontyMonty Posts: 346
    In my heart I'm not surprised Labour has failed even though it's painful. They haven't found their voice in the modern age yet, and it shows.
    I'm very pleased UKIP has crashed and burned though.
    It isn't healthy for democracy having a reactionary far right group doing well.
    I am worried about Scottish nationalism. Nationalism is an ugly ideology and I fear we will increasingly see that in Scotland.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    CON MAJ govt now tighter odds than CON MIN govt at Ladrokes.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    SNP gain East Kilbride
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,783
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    he's missed himself off the list

    Tim Montgomerie ن ‏@montie · 4m4 minutes ago
    Biggest losers of the night: Scottish Labour? LibDems? Pollsters? Farage? Galloway? Tory leadership hopefuls?

    And UKIP could be on just one seat...
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    corporeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Forget 5 or 7 party nonsense, we have 2 party politics well and truly. With NI and Scotland being their own bubble.

    The votes don't show that.
    The seats do. 97% of England and Wales seats between the two parties.
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    CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    dyedwoolie said:

    Lib Dems 80 in Castle Point?!

    Very surprising, I was thinking they'd get no more than 79.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,411
    Cyclefree said:

    Our own Nick P is still an ex-MP, according to the Beeb ticker........

    Count still in early stage and I'm told it appears to be close and not yet a clear result, though it would be frankly odd if we gained it in the current national and regional picture. Going over to the count shortly so will sign off in a bit.

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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,927
    Anyone seen Ed yet?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2015
    Chameleon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Castle Point

    Con: 23,112
    UKIP: 14,178

    Wow. Big Con hold.

    Con won't lose many to UKIP. Labour on the other hand are looking much more venerable.
    UKIP not doing very well outside the NE. I think proximity to Scotland has increased the vote there.

    It will be interesting to see some WWC seats in the Midlands and North. I have my eyes on Leicester West locally.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,419
    Eck seems pleased enough.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    UKIP smashing it in the north and struggling in the south. Confusing!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    I thought UKIP would win Castle Point.

    Best hope for UKIP now is the northern Labour seats.

    LordA once again on a roll for worst pollster in history.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Just reviewed my betting. If UKIP win 2 seats or more and we get a CON minority I'm ahead.

    I sold turnout at 70% on SPIN - latest is 62.4%. Big loser on CON-LAB supremacy.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    LDs can't really have got 80 votes in Castle Point? Surely it's 800:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000622
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    FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Castle Point

    Con: 23,112
    UKIP: 14,178

    Wow. Big Con hold.

    Will UKIP have any seats?
    Possibly not. But UKIP are morphing before our eyes. it is becoming a party that wishes to be an alternative to Northern labour.
    So even its 1 MP is likely to soon be an independent.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    SNP hold Angus
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    Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Angus hold tick.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,921
    For a while, I've had a thought, the Lib Dems would vote tactically for the Tories where UKIP were challenging the Tories.

    Castle Point backs that up
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,281
    Motherwell SNP gain
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,396
    Monty said:

    In my heart I'm not surprised Labour has failed even though it's painful. They haven't found their voice in the modern age yet, and it shows.
    I'm very pleased UKIP has crashed and burned though.
    It isn't healthy for democracy having a reactionary far right group doing well.
    I am worried about Scottish nationalism. Nationalism is an ugly ideology and I fear we will increasingly see that in Scotland.

    Well UKIP are not a reactionary right group. And they have hardly crashed and burned given that it looks like they will end up well into double figures of the vote share
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    oxfordsimon said:

    One thing that the SNP will have to deal with is the fact that a good number of these candidates were selected with very little expectation of actually winning. There are going to be some very 'interesting' new people who never expected to be MPs...

    There were some really rubbish "paper candidates" who won through when the Canadian NDP had a surprise surge (pushing the Liberals into 3rd place) in 2011 election.

    See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Ellen_Brosseau but she was far from the worst (despite winning a Quebec seat and not speaking French).

    Also, the NDP look set to make big surprise gains (even win) the Alberta elections, and a whole new raft of paper candidates are set to gain power: http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/a-yoga-teacher-students-and-a-hugo-chavez-fan-what-an-ndp-government-might-look-like-in-alberta

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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Slackbladder said:

    isam said:

    First losing bet! Con hold Castle Point

    You're going to lose a lot more on UKIP on that basis
    Haha you don't say!
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,783
    I think UKIP has gotten stuffed - as the LibDems have in the past - by FPTP.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    DUP have reportedly gained East Belfast from Alliance.
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For a while, I've had a thought, the Lib Dems would vote tactically for the Tories where UKIP were challenging the Tories.

    Castle Point backs that up

    What LibDems?

    Only kidding.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2015
    Islington South

    Emily Thornberry +8.7
    Con +2.8
    LD -23.2
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    Flockers_pbFlockers_pb Posts: 204
    Suddenly two seats looks ambitious for Ukip. Cameron massively strengthened by this. For a week or so!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306
    isam said:

    Slackbladder said:

    isam said:

    First losing bet! Con hold Castle Point

    You're going to lose a lot more on UKIP on that basis
    Haha you don't say!
    I just hope MikeK was cautious with his betting!
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    Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Dundee East, well you know the rest.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Ed's Labour is a tired 1970s party in the 21st century. Hey - Lord Kinnock: have your party back.

    Next: LAB civil war.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Polly's feed is s thing of beauty tonight

    @pollytoynbee: Cameron wins now - but he risks losing the history books: the little Englander who broke the Union and took the UK out of the EU.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,018
    Presumably BJO is waiting for a surprise swing to Labour in an isolated seat to repeat his famous mantra.

    I'm with Jack W. EMWNBPM
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Islington South

    Emily Thornberry +8.7
    Con +2.8
    LD -23.2

    Is that a shock swing to Labour in London?
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    dmc82dmc82 Posts: 27
    CON hold Swindon South
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    MikeSmithson said:

    Just reviewed my betting. If UKIP win 2 seats or more and we get a CON minority I'm ahead.

    I sold turnout at 70% on SPIN - latest is 62.4%. Big loser on CON-LAB supremacy.

    I thought you were probably spending a few hours cutting your losses! Welcome back.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Dair said:

    SNP are on the way to well over 50% of teh vote.

    These swings are more than Exit Poll.

    when is the first seat against SLD or SCUP? those could be interesting.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MikeSmithson said:

    Just reviewed my betting. If UKIP win 2 seats or more and we get a CON minority I'm ahead.

    I sold turnout at 70% on SPIN - latest is 62.4%. Big loser on CON-LAB supremacy.

    OGH could you please exclude LordA and his stupid appalling constituency polls from political existence?
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Forget 5 or 7 party nonsense, we have 2 party politics well and truly. With NI and Scotland being their own bubble.

    Lol - one and a half party politics.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Tessa Jowell must have Stevie Wonder as her fashion adviser.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,294
    ITV News ‏@itvnews 9s9 seconds ago
    CON Hold Swindon South #GE2015
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,080
    The BBC now saying 3% swing to the tories. This is incredible.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Swindon South - Con hold on 22,777.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306
    edited May 2015
    dmc82 said:

    CON hold Swindon South

    YAY :D

    Tories gain Vale of Clwyd!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,921
    Tories increase their maj in Swindon South
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,054
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    he's missed himself off the list

    Tim Montgomerie ن ‏@montie · 4m4 minutes ago
    Biggest losers of the night: Scottish Labour? LibDems? Pollsters? Farage? Galloway? Tory leadership hopefuls?

    Biggest winners are David Cameron and the SNP - would expect DC to make a generous offer to Scotland
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    CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Glad I don't bet as I would have lost a packet on these results.
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    GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel sorry for Dan Hodges.

    Was right about Ed Miliband, but we all have to see his knackers in public

    LOL
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Chameleon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Castle Point

    Con: 23,112
    UKIP: 14,178

    Wow. Big Con hold.

    Con won't lose many to UKIP. Labour on the other hand are looking much more venerable.
    UKIP not doing very well outside the NE. I think proximity to Scotland has increased the vote there.

    It will be interesting to see some WWC seats in the Midlands and North. I have my eyes on Leicester West locally.
    Hartlepool will be interesting, but even up here there is still considerable stigma attached to Ukip.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,079
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel sorry for Dan Hodges.

    Was right about Ed Miliband, but we all have to see his knackers in public

    Did you vote Tory? I ended up voting Labour - but yet I'm gleefully laughing at all the, shall we say, "suboptimal" Lab results so far :)
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    AndyJS said:

    LDs can't really have got 80 votes in Castle Point? Surely it's 800:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000622

    Castle Point was a close race so no surprise the Lib Dems got squeezed. Their candidate there was not local (difficult to vote for someone whose address is listed as "Address in NW Cambridgeshire constituency" if you live in South Essex, surely).
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Monty said:

    In my heart I'm not surprised Labour has failed even though it's painful. They haven't found their voice in the modern age yet, and it shows.
    I'm very pleased UKIP has crashed and burned though.
    It isn't healthy for democracy having a reactionary far right group doing well.
    I am worried about Scottish nationalism. Nationalism is an ugly ideology and I fear we will increasingly see that in Scotland.

    If you're typical of Labour supporters (and I'm only inferring that, so do please accept my apologies if I'm wrong), I think you'll continue to struggle to get to grips with UKIP - they're not a reactionary far right group, no matter how much you wish to believe that is so.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,053
    This is bonkers....
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,921
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel sorry for Dan Hodges.

    Was right about Ed Miliband, but we all have to see his knackers in public

    Did you vote Tory? I ended up voting Labour - but yet I'm gleefully laughing at all the, shall we say, "suboptimal" Lab results so far :)
    I did
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tories increase their maj in Swindon South

    It seems like the only Con-Lab swings are in very safe, deprived Lab seats in the North West.
This discussion has been closed.