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  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Swings under 30 percent to SNP now look poor!
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Castle Point

    Con: 23,112
    UKIP: 14,178

    Wow. Big Con hold.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    Nowhere near for UKIP in Castle Point..
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    Swing in Falkirk a measly 26%

    Broken, sleazy SNP on the slide???
  • dmc82
    dmc82 Posts: 27
    CON hold Castle Point
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    edited May 2015
    Huge Tory win on Canvey Island (comparatively)
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Tories hold castle point with ease
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    UKIP fall well short in Castle Point then?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Monty SNP on 49% still not a majority in Scottish vote, and some of those will be No voters voting SNP for more powers
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Castle point nowhere near for ukip
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Castle Point - Con hold,
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Castle point LD 80 :lol::lol::lol:
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    saddened said:

    FPT, BenM, and other Labour supporters who have taken this magnanimously

    BenM has always played a straight bat - good economic indicators were 'good news for the government' - not 'yes, but what about.....'
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    rcs1000 said:

    Castle Point

    Con: 23,112
    UKIP: 14,178

    Wow. Big Con hold.

    Wasn't this a big target for them?
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2015
    kippers short by 9 000 in Castle Point.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Castle Point easy hold.
  • Creidekki
    Creidekki Posts: 18
    Bugger. I've got to work in about 5 hours. Not sure I'll be very productive today
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Castle Point

    Con: 23,112
    UKIP: 14,178

    Wow. Big Con hold.

    Will UKIP have any seats?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Castle Point clear Tory hold
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    First losing bet! Con hold Castle Point
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    rcs1000 said:

    Castle Point

    Con: 23,112
    UKIP: 14,178

    Wow. Big Con hold.

    Con won't lose many to UKIP. Labour on the other hand are looking much more venerable.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Lib Dems 80 in Castle Point?!
  • Gravitation
    Gravitation Posts: 287
    Castle Point Con hold with big majority.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    Chris_A said:

    Can't believe that the BBC forecast hasn't changed at all

    They're too busy drowning their sorrows with their champagne.
  • Chris_A
    Chris_A Posts: 1,237
    UKIP stuffed. Hurrah
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    SNP are on the way to well over 50% of teh vote.

    These swings are more than Exit Poll.
  • CopperSulphate
    CopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    edited May 2015
    Green party candidate clearly couldn't be bothered to get changed for the count in Castle Point.
  • Eh_ehm_a_eh
    Eh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    East Kilbride tick
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    I feel sorry for Dan Hodges.

    Was right about Ed Miliband, but we all have to see his knackers in public
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    isam said:

    First losing bet! Con hold Castle Point

    You're going to lose a lot more on UKIP on that basis
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    I thought UKIP would win Castle Point.

    Best hope for UKIP now is the northern Labour seats.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Looks like the only chances of UKIP adding to Clacton are with Labour seats.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Seems to be some considerable Con-Lab swing in safe Lab seats.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Wasn't Castle Point a big UKIP target?
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Forget 5 or 7 party nonsense, we have 2 party politics well and truly. With NI and Scotland being their own bubble.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    HYUFD said:

    Monty SNP on 49% still not a majority in Scottish vote, and some of those will be No voters voting SNP for more powers

    Oh give it up you can't accept the SN P pissing up

  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Speedy If Labour look like they can win a majority without the SNP then they can win England and Wales, they certainly need a better leader, Cooper, Burnham and Umunna would all be far better than Ed but it will be a tough fight
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    he's missed himself off the list

    Tim Montgomerie ن ‏@montie · 4m4 minutes ago
    Biggest losers of the night: Scottish Labour? LibDems? Pollsters? Farage? Galloway? Tory leadership hopefuls?

  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Changes in Fareham:

    Con +0.8%
    UKIP +11.3%
    Lab +0.1%
    LD -15.0%
    Greens +2.4%

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000699
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    rcs1000 said:

    I thought UKIP would win Castle Point.

    Best hope for UKIP now is the northern Labour seats.

    I'd really like them to win Rotherham, but it's unlikely.
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/596487549075456001

    Forgot about the EU referendum because it looked like Hung Parliament nailed on.
    Looks like it's on like Donkey Kong
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    KentRising said:

    Looks like the only chances of UKIP adding to Clacton are with Labour seats.

    I suspect the SNP surge hit UKIP in Conservative held seats...
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Forget 5 or 7 party nonsense, we have 2 party politics well and truly. With NI and Scotland being their own bubble.

    The votes don't show that.
  • Eh_ehm_a_eh
    Eh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Motherwell & Wishaw. tick
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Maybe very few CON gains from LAB - will need to take them from LD
  • Monty
    Monty Posts: 346
    In my heart I'm not surprised Labour has failed even though it's painful. They haven't found their voice in the modern age yet, and it shows.
    I'm very pleased UKIP has crashed and burned though.
    It isn't healthy for democracy having a reactionary far right group doing well.
    I am worried about Scottish nationalism. Nationalism is an ugly ideology and I fear we will increasingly see that in Scotland.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    East Kilbride

    SNP 33678
    Labour 17151
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    CON MAJ govt now tighter odds than CON MIN govt at Ladrokes.
  • Moses_
    Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    SNP gain East Kilbride
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    he's missed himself off the list

    Tim Montgomerie ن ‏@montie · 4m4 minutes ago
    Biggest losers of the night: Scottish Labour? LibDems? Pollsters? Farage? Galloway? Tory leadership hopefuls?

    And UKIP could be on just one seat...
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    corporeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Forget 5 or 7 party nonsense, we have 2 party politics well and truly. With NI and Scotland being their own bubble.

    The votes don't show that.
    The seats do. 97% of England and Wales seats between the two parties.
  • CopperSulphate
    CopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    dyedwoolie said:

    Lib Dems 80 in Castle Point?!

    Very surprising, I was thinking they'd get no more than 79.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Cyclefree said:

    Our own Nick P is still an ex-MP, according to the Beeb ticker........

    Count still in early stage and I'm told it appears to be close and not yet a clear result, though it would be frankly odd if we gained it in the current national and regional picture. Going over to the count shortly so will sign off in a bit.

  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,727
    Anyone seen Ed yet?
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2015
    Chameleon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Castle Point

    Con: 23,112
    UKIP: 14,178

    Wow. Big Con hold.

    Con won't lose many to UKIP. Labour on the other hand are looking much more venerable.
    UKIP not doing very well outside the NE. I think proximity to Scotland has increased the vote there.

    It will be interesting to see some WWC seats in the Midlands and North. I have my eyes on Leicester West locally.
  • Stark_Dawning
    Stark_Dawning Posts: 10,202
    Eck seems pleased enough.
  • Brom
    Brom Posts: 3,760
    UKIP smashing it in the north and struggling in the south. Confusing!
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    I thought UKIP would win Castle Point.

    Best hope for UKIP now is the northern Labour seats.

    LordA once again on a roll for worst pollster in history.
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Just reviewed my betting. If UKIP win 2 seats or more and we get a CON minority I'm ahead.

    I sold turnout at 70% on SPIN - latest is 62.4%. Big loser on CON-LAB supremacy.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    LDs can't really have got 80 votes in Castle Point? Surely it's 800:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000622
  • Flightpathl
    Flightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Castle Point

    Con: 23,112
    UKIP: 14,178

    Wow. Big Con hold.

    Will UKIP have any seats?
    Possibly not. But UKIP are morphing before our eyes. it is becoming a party that wishes to be an alternative to Northern labour.
    So even its 1 MP is likely to soon be an independent.
  • Moses_
    Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    SNP hold Angus
  • Eh_ehm_a_eh
    Eh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Angus hold tick.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    For a while, I've had a thought, the Lib Dems would vote tactically for the Tories where UKIP were challenging the Tories.

    Castle Point backs that up
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Motherwell SNP gain
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    Monty said:

    In my heart I'm not surprised Labour has failed even though it's painful. They haven't found their voice in the modern age yet, and it shows.
    I'm very pleased UKIP has crashed and burned though.
    It isn't healthy for democracy having a reactionary far right group doing well.
    I am worried about Scottish nationalism. Nationalism is an ugly ideology and I fear we will increasingly see that in Scotland.

    Well UKIP are not a reactionary right group. And they have hardly crashed and burned given that it looks like they will end up well into double figures of the vote share
  • MyBurningEars
    MyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    oxfordsimon said:

    One thing that the SNP will have to deal with is the fact that a good number of these candidates were selected with very little expectation of actually winning. There are going to be some very 'interesting' new people who never expected to be MPs...

    There were some really rubbish "paper candidates" who won through when the Canadian NDP had a surprise surge (pushing the Liberals into 3rd place) in 2011 election.

    See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Ellen_Brosseau but she was far from the worst (despite winning a Quebec seat and not speaking French).

    Also, the NDP look set to make big surprise gains (even win) the Alberta elections, and a whole new raft of paper candidates are set to gain power: http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/a-yoga-teacher-students-and-a-hugo-chavez-fan-what-an-ndp-government-might-look-like-in-alberta

  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Slackbladder said:

    isam said:

    First losing bet! Con hold Castle Point

    You're going to lose a lot more on UKIP on that basis
    Haha you don't say!
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    I think UKIP has gotten stuffed - as the LibDems have in the past - by FPTP.
  • Y0kel
    Y0kel Posts: 2,307
    DUP have reportedly gained East Belfast from Alliance.
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For a while, I've had a thought, the Lib Dems would vote tactically for the Tories where UKIP were challenging the Tories.

    Castle Point backs that up

    What LibDems?

    Only kidding.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2015
    Islington South

    Emily Thornberry +8.7
    Con +2.8
    LD -23.2
  • Flockers_pb
    Flockers_pb Posts: 204
    Suddenly two seats looks ambitious for Ukip. Cameron massively strengthened by this. For a week or so!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    isam said:

    Slackbladder said:

    isam said:

    First losing bet! Con hold Castle Point

    You're going to lose a lot more on UKIP on that basis
    Haha you don't say!
    I just hope MikeK was cautious with his betting!
  • Eh_ehm_a_eh
    Eh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Dundee East, well you know the rest.
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    Ed's Labour is a tired 1970s party in the 21st century. Hey - Lord Kinnock: have your party back.

    Next: LAB civil war.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Polly's feed is s thing of beauty tonight

    @pollytoynbee: Cameron wins now - but he risks losing the history books: the little Englander who broke the Union and took the UK out of the EU.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Presumably BJO is waiting for a surprise swing to Labour in an isolated seat to repeat his famous mantra.

    I'm with Jack W. EMWNBPM
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Islington South

    Emily Thornberry +8.7
    Con +2.8
    LD -23.2

    Is that a shock swing to Labour in London?
  • dmc82
    dmc82 Posts: 27
    CON hold Swindon South
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    MikeSmithson said:

    Just reviewed my betting. If UKIP win 2 seats or more and we get a CON minority I'm ahead.

    I sold turnout at 70% on SPIN - latest is 62.4%. Big loser on CON-LAB supremacy.

    I thought you were probably spending a few hours cutting your losses! Welcome back.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Dair said:

    SNP are on the way to well over 50% of teh vote.

    These swings are more than Exit Poll.

    when is the first seat against SLD or SCUP? those could be interesting.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    MikeSmithson said:

    Just reviewed my betting. If UKIP win 2 seats or more and we get a CON minority I'm ahead.

    I sold turnout at 70% on SPIN - latest is 62.4%. Big loser on CON-LAB supremacy.

    OGH could you please exclude LordA and his stupid appalling constituency polls from political existence?
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Forget 5 or 7 party nonsense, we have 2 party politics well and truly. With NI and Scotland being their own bubble.

    Lol - one and a half party politics.
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    Tessa Jowell must have Stevie Wonder as her fashion adviser.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    ITV News ‏@itvnews 9s9 seconds ago
    CON Hold Swindon South #GE2015
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    The BBC now saying 3% swing to the tories. This is incredible.
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Swindon South - Con hold on 22,777.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    edited May 2015
    dmc82 said:

    CON hold Swindon South

    YAY :D

    Tories gain Vale of Clwyd!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Tories increase their maj in Swindon South
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    he's missed himself off the list

    Tim Montgomerie ن ‏@montie · 4m4 minutes ago
    Biggest losers of the night: Scottish Labour? LibDems? Pollsters? Farage? Galloway? Tory leadership hopefuls?

    Biggest winners are David Cameron and the SNP - would expect DC to make a generous offer to Scotland
  • CopperSulphate
    CopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Glad I don't bet as I would have lost a packet on these results.
  • Gadfly
    Gadfly Posts: 1,205
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel sorry for Dan Hodges.

    Was right about Ed Miliband, but we all have to see his knackers in public

    LOL
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Chameleon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Castle Point

    Con: 23,112
    UKIP: 14,178

    Wow. Big Con hold.

    Con won't lose many to UKIP. Labour on the other hand are looking much more venerable.
    UKIP not doing very well outside the NE. I think proximity to Scotland has increased the vote there.

    It will be interesting to see some WWC seats in the Midlands and North. I have my eyes on Leicester West locally.
    Hartlepool will be interesting, but even up here there is still considerable stigma attached to Ukip.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel sorry for Dan Hodges.

    Was right about Ed Miliband, but we all have to see his knackers in public

    Did you vote Tory? I ended up voting Labour - but yet I'm gleefully laughing at all the, shall we say, "suboptimal" Lab results so far :)
  • MyBurningEars
    MyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    AndyJS said:

    LDs can't really have got 80 votes in Castle Point? Surely it's 800:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000622

    Castle Point was a close race so no surprise the Lib Dems got squeezed. Their candidate there was not local (difficult to vote for someone whose address is listed as "Address in NW Cambridgeshire constituency" if you live in South Essex, surely).
  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    Monty said:

    In my heart I'm not surprised Labour has failed even though it's painful. They haven't found their voice in the modern age yet, and it shows.
    I'm very pleased UKIP has crashed and burned though.
    It isn't healthy for democracy having a reactionary far right group doing well.
    I am worried about Scottish nationalism. Nationalism is an ugly ideology and I fear we will increasingly see that in Scotland.

    If you're typical of Labour supporters (and I'm only inferring that, so do please accept my apologies if I'm wrong), I think you'll continue to struggle to get to grips with UKIP - they're not a reactionary far right group, no matter how much you wish to believe that is so.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    This is bonkers....
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel sorry for Dan Hodges.

    Was right about Ed Miliband, but we all have to see his knackers in public

    Did you vote Tory? I ended up voting Labour - but yet I'm gleefully laughing at all the, shall we say, "suboptimal" Lab results so far :)
    I did
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tories increase their maj in Swindon South

    It seems like the only Con-Lab swings are in very safe, deprived Lab seats in the North West.
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