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Another marvellous rumour if true. If Reckless goes its just fantastic.Dair said:WOW
Farage has lost. HIs ITV interview reaction and body language and language. He's GONE.0 -
Mood music for #Labour Sehr feierlich und sehr langsam - Bruckner's Symphony No. 7 in E major (WAB 107).0
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Surbiton will be please :-)Slackbladder said:ames Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 1 min1 minute ago
Tory sources in Kingston & Surbiton believe Ed Davey is in 'real trouble' #GE20150 -
@ByrneToff: hearing rumours ed miliband says when he sees exit polls collapsing around him he 'feels respect'0
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FU It was Brand wot lost it?0
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I really wish I had bought some champagne...Purseybear said:
Another marvellous rumour if true. If Reckless goes its just fantastic.Dair said:WOW
Farage has lost. HIs ITV interview reaction and body language and language. He's GONE.
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No, it is up to them to convert those votes into seats. They will have their chances if they sustain their momentum.KentRising said:Carswell: UKIP and Greens could get 5 million votes yet have 2-3 seats put together. Time for voting reform.
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Any news on Vince?
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The only explanation re. the exit poll and the ordinary polls is large numbers of people entering the polling station intending not to vote Tory and then actually voting for them.0
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#EdStone on eBay already.
http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/EdStone-8ft-Limestone-Obelisk-Unwanted-Present-/291457433121?0 -
I believe Rod prediction was based upon Tories winning by 4% on national vote share. So it doesn't need to be that far out e.g could be 35/30. Exit poll is also saying Labour piling up votes in areas they don't need it and getting no swing in ones they do.Slackbladder said:Tim Montgomerie ن @montie 2 mins2 minutes ago
On LBC, @LordAshcroft says his poll of 12,000 voters - Con 34%, Lab 31% - is inconsistent with the exit poll0 -
Nigel Farage on ITV has just effectively said that UKIP are now an alternative party to Labour. A party for white working class bigots.
I'm surprised he still has the nerve to wear his velvet collared camel hair coat.
He then walked on and took no questions - which I take it to mean he has lost. IF he has lost and resigns then UKIP will change character completely.
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Not at all - differential response could be the key. Some people just don't like other people intruding into their business.AndyJS said:The only explanation re. the exit poll and the ordinary polls is large numbers of people entering the polling station intending to not to vote Tory and then actually voting for them.
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@EllieJPrice: #GE2015 Tory agent at Rochester count tells BBC "I'm smiling" hinting their candidate Kelly Tolhurst will beat UKIP's Mark Reckless.
Too late to put bubbly in the fridge?0 -
All three Fife seats going SNP from the BBC Scotland reporting.0
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Yes it's not an exit poll. I think it's time the Pollsters just hang their heads in shame and shut the bleep up.GIN1138 said:0 -
Carswell a shoo-in for leader.Bond_James_Bond said:
Fantastic if trueDair said:WOW
Farage has lost. HIs ITV interview reaction and body language and language. He's GONE.0 -
ITN says Labour has won six seats. Any idea where the three the BBC aren't reporting are?0
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If ComRes has turned out to be the most 'accurate' pollster we can no longer use the ComedyResults moniker!0
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If the 1% swing is correct, and it's a BIG if, the Tories should have a 20% chance....AndyJS said:
It would be astonishing if the Tories took Nottingham South. Just incredible.antifrank said:I tipped the Conservatives in Nottingham South at 9/1 last year. I see the BBC are predicting that will happen.
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Are 10 Lib Dems really going to vote for £12bn in welfare cuts?
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And with the hatred/vitriol directed at Tories from those on the left, it's hardly a surprise.Tissue_Price said:
Not at all - differential response could be the key. Some people just don't like other people intruding into their business.AndyJS said:The only explanation re. the exit poll and the ordinary polls is large numbers of people entering the polling station intending to not to vote Tory and then actually voting for them.
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Yvette stoney faced0
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I've been saying this for ages, particularly that the soft Blue Kippers would return home this GE but that the WWC Kippers will never go back to Labour.Morris_Dancer said:Carswell on Sky talking about turning UKIP into an alternative to Labour in seats the Conservatives stand no chance [north of England, basically].
And I am right.0 -
I wonder what odds you could have got on the LDs losing all of their London seats..Prob won't happen but it's close.rcs1000 said:
Surbiton will be please :-)Slackbladder said:ames Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 1 min1 minute ago
Tory sources in Kingston & Surbiton believe Ed Davey is in 'real trouble' #GE20150 -
Yvette Cooper looking ashen despite her words ....0
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I expect there will be a little pink bus joining it shortly..!RobinWiggs said:#EdStone on eBay already.
http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/EdStone-8ft-Limestone-Obelisk-Unwanted-Present-/291457433121? 0 -
Has Ed's Downfall parody video been done yet?0
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8th May = VE Day: Victory over Ed day?0
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Yvette looks haunted.0
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Who will be next?0
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The problem for Labour is the perception they see all WWC people as bigots.Flightpathl said:Nigel Farage on ITV has just effectively said that UKIP are now an alternative party to Labour. A party for white working class bigots.
I'm surprised he still has the nerve to wear his velvet collared camel hair coat.
He then walked on and took no questions - which I take it to mean he has lost. IF he has lost and resigns then UKIP will change character completely.0 -
Bloody marvellous. I want to record the result and replay it several times.Scott_P said:@EllieJPrice: #GE2015 Tory agent at Rochester count tells BBC "I'm smiling" hinting their candidate Kelly Tolhurst will beat UKIP's Mark Reckless.
Too late to put bubbly in the fridge?0 -
No, the explanation is the obvious one: quite a few of those saying they'd vote Labour didn't, and those who were fired up about keeping Ed out did.AndyJS said:The only explanation re. the exit poll and the ordinary polls is large numbers of people entering the polling station intending not to vote Tory and then actually voting for them.
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She might have Ed as a house husband at this rate.Stark_Dawning said:Yvette looks haunted.
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Probably places like Newcastle East where they're guessing the result. Ridiculous of them not to wait for the declaration.SouthamObserver said:ITN says Labour has won six seats. Any idea where the three the BBC aren't reporting are?
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Looks like labour ground game was as big as clueless0
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Christ almighty, it's looking like my dream outcome may eventuate - both UKIP and Labour utterly routed.
People's army my arse.
Farage has received the Roderick Spode treatment at the hands of Bertie Wooster:
The trouble with you, Spode, is that just because you have succeeded in inducing a handful of half-wits to disfigure the London scene by going about in black shorts, you think you're someone. You hear them shouting "Heil, Spode!" and you imagine it is the Voice of the People. That is where you make your bloomer. What the Voice of the People is saying is: "Look at that frightful ass Spode swanking about in footer bags! Did you ever in your puff see such a perfect perisher?"
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But it's the collapse of the LDs that is creating this issue...Tories vote can stay static in LD/ Con marginals and they will still win.FrancisUrquhart said:
I believe Rod prediction was based upon Tories winning by 4% on national vote share. So it doesn't need to be that far out e.g could be 35/30. Exit poll is also saying Labour piling up votes in areas they don't need it and getting no swing in ones they do.Slackbladder said:Tim Montgomerie ن @montie 2 mins2 minutes ago
On LBC, @LordAshcroft says his poll of 12,000 voters - Con 34%, Lab 31% - is inconsistent with the exit poll0 -
GIN1138 said:
Cheerio, Mr Davey. Need any help carrying away all your nice turbines? Don't let the door hit you on the ARSE on the way out.Slackbladder said:ames Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 1 min1 minute ago
Tory sources in Kingston & Surbiton believe Ed Davey is in 'real trouble' #GE2015
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The real reason is that phone and online sampling methodology is outdated garbage. So the only accurate poll is the one that actually gets the people as they come out = the exit poll.Tissue_Price said:
Not at all - differential response could be the key. Some people just don't like other people intruding into their business.AndyJS said:The only explanation re. the exit poll and the ordinary polls is large numbers of people entering the polling station intending to not to vote Tory and then actually voting for them.
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Don't tell IOS.AndreaParma_82 said:Looks like labour ground game was as big as clueless
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Bond Disagree, all 3 relatively moderate, telegenic, one a northerner, 1 a woman, 1 a black man, any of them would be miles better than Miliband, and with an EU referendum now likely a more rightwing leader is likely to succeed Cameron0
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Wee, ratty Effie trying to avoid blame for foundering of HMS SNPout.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:Nats will like this.
Effie Deans
@Effiedeans
To be clear my involvement with #SNPout has always been peripheral. I just help with tweets. The team deserves the credit #GE2015ill like this0 -
As a humble foot soldier in all this my overwhelming impressions are:
The British public are terribly polite. Even if thay hate all you and all you stand for the most they ever say is No thanks
The number of cats in this country is extraordinary and they know there territory better than any canvasser
Gardens sre looking wonderful this year. Gravel does not work well as a substitute for grass or flower borders
England is not nearly as altered as many would have you believe.0 -
Dave Milli would have won this easy on NuLab agenda0
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I did try and tell Mr Smithson this point.heseltine said:
But it's the collapse of the LDs that is creating this issue...Tories vote can stay static in LD/ Con marginals and they will still win.FrancisUrquhart said:
I believe Rod prediction was based upon Tories winning by 4% on national vote share. So it doesn't need to be that far out e.g could be 35/30. Exit poll is also saying Labour piling up votes in areas they don't need it and getting no swing in ones they do.Slackbladder said:Tim Montgomerie ن @montie 2 mins2 minutes ago
On LBC, @LordAshcroft says his poll of 12,000 voters - Con 34%, Lab 31% - is inconsistent with the exit poll0 -
isam vs rcs1000 bets
LibDems under 10% - isam winner
LibDems under 8% - rcs1000 winner
Reckless wins Rochester - rcs1000 winner
Cons +6.5% in Thanet South - rcs1000 winner
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The horror.....Slackbladder said:
She might have Ed as a house husband at this rate.Stark_Dawning said:Yvette looks haunted.
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In the WWC north east Labour seems to have clung on.KentRising said:
The problem for Labour is the perception they see all WWC people as bigots.Flightpathl said:Nigel Farage on ITV has just effectively said that UKIP are now an alternative party to Labour. A party for white working class bigots.
I'm surprised he still has the nerve to wear his velvet collared camel hair coat.
He then walked on and took no questions - which I take it to mean he has lost. IF he has lost and resigns then UKIP will change character completely.
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2nd UKip seat Rother Valley ?¿0
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Davey and Cable are well goneProdicus said:GIN1138 said:
Cheerio, Mr Davey. Need any help carrying away all your nice turbines? Don't let the door hit you on the ARSE on the way out.Slackbladder said:ames Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 1 min1 minute ago
Tory sources in Kingston & Surbiton believe Ed Davey is in 'real trouble' #GE2015
Only Hughes left for LD in London0 -
You mean, Mr Smithson SnrPurseybear said:
I did try and tell Mr Smithson this point.heseltine said:
But it's the collapse of the LDs that is creating this issue...Tories vote can stay static in LD/ Con marginals and they will still win.FrancisUrquhart said:
I believe Rod prediction was based upon Tories winning by 4% on national vote share. So it doesn't need to be that far out e.g could be 35/30. Exit poll is also saying Labour piling up votes in areas they don't need it and getting no swing in ones they do.Slackbladder said:Tim Montgomerie ن @montie 2 mins2 minutes ago
On LBC, @LordAshcroft says his poll of 12,000 voters - Con 34%, Lab 31% - is inconsistent with the exit poll0 -
He's not the only one either. Look like we are having a load of Angus Reid's in this election...Speedy said:
If the Exit Poll is correct LordA has to resign from the polling industry, all of his constituency polls would have been massively wrong apart from Scotland.Slackbladder said:Tim Montgomerie ن @montie 2 mins2 minutes ago
On LBC, @LordAshcroft says his poll of 12,000 voters - Con 34%, Lab 31% - is inconsistent with the exit poll0 -
Kinnock live on BBC Parliament channel0
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Wonder how impressed Mike will be with his lordship, a bit less than he appears to have been over the last few months I suspect.Speedy said:
If the Exit Poll is correct LordA has to resign from the polling industry, all of his constituency polls would have been massively wrong apart from Scotland.Slackbladder said:Tim Montgomerie ن @montie 2 mins2 minutes ago
On LBC, @LordAshcroft says his poll of 12,000 voters - Con 34%, Lab 31% - is inconsistent with the exit poll0 -
Well yes, but it's something of a dead cat bounce - their NorthEast vote fell by 20% between 1997 and 2010, far bigger than falls in the South.SouthamObserver said:
In the WWC north east Labour seems to have clung on.KentRising said:
The problem for Labour is the perception they see all WWC people as bigots.Flightpathl said:Nigel Farage on ITV has just effectively said that UKIP are now an alternative party to Labour. A party for white working class bigots.
I'm surprised he still has the nerve to wear his velvet collared camel hair coat.
He then walked on and took no questions - which I take it to mean he has lost. IF he has lost and resigns then UKIP will change character completely.
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Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson 59 secs60 seconds ago
Nick Robinson retweeted Matthew Price
Now Tories predicting win against UKIP defector Mark Reckless
Please please please0 -
Great spin from Mrs Balls on BBC - even if the exit poll is right, it shows that Cameron has lost his majority and cant form a government.....0
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It may boil down to voters not trusting Ed to look after their finances.0
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Yeah, but they would have still lost Scotland....EDW20000 said:Dave Milli would have won this easy on NuLab agenda
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Dudley NorthPulpstar said:2nd UKip seat Rother Valley ?¿
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Whilst people are rightly pointing out the difficulty in running minority governments, need to bear in mind that it probably makes a difference when Conservatives are so far ahead of the opposition. Much easier to play off other parties against each other and far more scope to do deals on tricky issues. A situation where there is no majority opposition to one side of them also makes it much less likely that the opposition will unite against them.
And it clearly is not in the SNP interest to force another election.
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This is why Labour could be toast. There is now an alternative for the WC vote they have long taken for granted.nigel4england said:
I've been saying this for ages, particularly that the soft Blue Kippers would return home this GE but that the WWC Kippers will never go back to Labour.Morris_Dancer said:Carswell on Sky talking about turning UKIP into an alternative to Labour in seats the Conservatives stand no chance [north of England, basically].
And I am right.
The irony of a party once called "the Tory party your grandfather voted for" hoovering up Labour voters now.0 -
HAHA :-) That's true good point. I've seen that your Mr Smithson Jnr.rcs1000 said:
You mean, Mr Smithson SnrPurseybear said:
I did try and tell Mr Smithson this point.heseltine said:
But it's the collapse of the LDs that is creating this issue...Tories vote can stay static in LD/ Con marginals and they will still win.FrancisUrquhart said:
I believe Rod prediction was based upon Tories winning by 4% on national vote share. So it doesn't need to be that far out e.g could be 35/30. Exit poll is also saying Labour piling up votes in areas they don't need it and getting no swing in ones they do.Slackbladder said:Tim Montgomerie ن @montie 2 mins2 minutes ago
On LBC, @LordAshcroft says his poll of 12,000 voters - Con 34%, Lab 31% - is inconsistent with the exit poll0 -
Tom Harris looking a bit broken.
"The electorate just wasn't listening."0 -
Middlesbrough South expected c.0300 hours. If Tories get it, on universal swing (yeah, yeah) they have a majority.0
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STV - SNP activists saying 2 to 1 ahead. Tom Harris asked how he is feeling "well, I'm not expecting a recount", he's lost.
He says
"no-one was listening to us"
"we won on all the polciies"
"this wasnt about policies"
"no idea if Labour will win any seats in Scotland"
WOW. This is utterly amazing. From the reactions this is beyond anything I thought would happen. The SNP have destroyed Labour. And the Lib Dems. The Second Indyref will be on the ballot in 2016 and you know what, we will win both 2016 and the Second Referendum.
Kezia was chipper on BBC Scotland earleir, now looking utterly distrought on STV. Earlier saying "wait for then result" now saying "this will be bad". Blaming SNP for a Tory Government with a majority more than all the seats in Scotland.0 -
A perception that is 100% accurate.KentRising said:
The problem for Labour is the perception they see all WWC people as bigots.Flightpathl said:Nigel Farage on ITV has just effectively said that UKIP are now an alternative party to Labour. A party for white working class bigots.
I'm surprised he still has the nerve to wear his velvet collared camel hair coat.
He then walked on and took no questions - which I take it to mean he has lost. IF he has lost and resigns then UKIP will change character completely.
Farage also clearly despises the type of supporter he actually has.0 -
I'm sure Mark Reckless can celebrate the loss of Rochester and Strood with an orange juice....0
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The polls kept saying UKIP didn't have much of a chance in Great Grimsby...0
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Even if the exit poll is wrong, this is still potentially a horrendous result for Labour. Too much spinning from Labour bigwigs.
Take it from me as a proxy for a Labour spokesman that this is a very poor night for Labour.0 -
Turnout up 0.6%, so far.0
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@PickardJE: Feels a bit like senior Labour figures are actors reading the script to a different play.0
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Can we some more declarations?0
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bbc forecast tory hold in broxtowe.!!!0
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I think we may soon have an answer to the question as to whether Lord Ashcroft's Q1 or Q2 was a better guide, and I have a hunch it's going to be Q1.0
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Wise words from Neil Kinnock both exit polls can't be right.
How he never became PM evades me.0 -
Just a thought....if it does come out as predicted, Tories need Lib Dems.
Clegg can't stay as leader after this surely? If it isn't Nick who gets on well with Cameron, could it be seriously rocky if it is somebody like Fallon instead?0 -
Broxtowe stays Con according to BBC exit poll0
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Kinnock on the BBC: I think the two exit polls are so far apart that they can't possibly both be right.
No Shit, Sherlock !0 -
ukip seats max = 10
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I love the Labour desperation of trying to suggest that if the exit poll is correct they will still be able to scramble together a Government of all the Damned to keep Dave out.0
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They may not need anyone and if they do they might prefer the DUPFrancisUrquhart said:Just a thought....if it does come out as predicted, Tories need Lib Dems.
Clegg can't stay as leader after this surely? If it isn't Nick who gets on well with Cameron, could it be seriously rocky if it is somebody like Fallon instead?0 -
NP still XMP forecast by Vine0
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Important to see how the SNP do. Mood music sounds good for them and bad for Labour, but there's no substitute for concrete results.0
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Didn't I tell you there was a big difference between the way people vote in a silly Euro poll and the way they vote in a general election?isam said:
I am starting to lose a little faith in the 6.5 hcap bets!rcs1000 said:isam vs rcs1000 bets
LibDems under 10% - isam winner
LibDems under 8% - rcs1000 winner
Reckless wins Rochester - rcs1000 winner
Cons +6.5% in Thanet South - rcs1000 winner
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