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Who is the next UKIP leader?
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So this time tomorrow could Cameron (and Nicola) be the only leaders still standing? Clegg Miliband and Farage all gone?0
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BBC Scotland reporting from Edinburgh sounds good for SNP. Linlithgow SNP. Midlothian SNP.0
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Ed Davey clinging to the YouGov0
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Oh no. Jeremy Vine in the Matrix. The worst bit of election nights.0
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It's holding up wellTheScreamingEagles said:A 1,000 comments in less than two hours.
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Gove said straight away that he believed the exit poll. As Chief Whip, his info should be as good as the best.0
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@rowenamason: David Blunkett on ITV saying he fears the exit polls are correct... not the central party line
@alstewitn: #GE2015 David Blunkett pretty well concedes on @itvnews but knows how the numbers work. Good man, & numerate.0 -
Clearly false bravado, if he was so confident he would need to have said very little.currystar said:
I really hope not. His complacency was pretty sadSaltire said:The exit poll is predicting about 20 Labour gains assuming 40 losses in Scotland. Considering that they are probably going to get atleast 10 Liberal ones that does not leave many from the Tories at all.
Will Nick Palmer be one of the few gains??
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You can hear the laughter from New York in Doncaster....0
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Were 500 of those in response to the exit poll?TheScreamingEagles said:A 1,000 comments in less than two hours.
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"David Cameron's ability to hold on in Downing Street is on a knife-edge," Labour's Ed Balls says
Comment of the night, so far?0 -
Tory gains according to BBC:
Lewes
Thornbury
Gedling
Kingston
Southport
Derby North
Derbyshire NE0 -
It seems we need to wait for the Nuneaton result to gauge if the exit poll is anywhere near correct. If what Thrasher is saying is correct then Labour will struggle to win this, if they do win in line with projected national swing then the rest of the polling industry can breath a bit easier and perhaps the thing aint over0
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BBC project Labour gain Cambridge narrowly.0
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Bernard Ponsonby to Willie Rennie while joking about it still being evening not quite morning "you might not want to wake up in the morning to face this".0
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Speaker and the deputies traditionally don't vote?? I have forgotten my BC.Tim_B said:They keep talking about a majority being 326. How many Sinn Fein MPs are there, and do they still not turn up?
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@paulhutcheon: Rumours that David Mundell, the sole Tory MP in Scotland, is toast #GE20150
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BBC predicting Nuneaton Blue0
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What do we think about vote percentages? If Ukip overperform and SNP get 58 MPs I can just hear the anger.0
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Tory gain Gedling and Derbyshire NE projected.0
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Did wonder why Dave was in Lancaster and Fleetwood last thing yesterday afternoon... did they really have an inkling?0
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Exit polls says places like Nuneaton, Ipswich and Ealing staying blue.0
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The bile and venom coming from blunket and Balls is hilarious.0
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Labour have picked up a couple of hundred votes in their strongest area. Get real. Going backwards.TOPPING said:The reality is that in the N-E so far it has been overwhelmingly Lab (forget the swings, they have huge majorities).
Which means that whole economic communities are not feeling the recovery, such as it is, and perhaps feel left out of economic progress that has been made for the past generation and more.
That is something that any new govt needs to address.0 -
@KateEMcCann: Oh dear, someone has already set up @LibDemDeposits to tally up how much cash Nick Clegg's party has lost. (£1,500 so far)0
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Where exactly are the LDs 10 seats, then?0
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What a dick Davey is.0
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Lets us see if the RCS hare outpaces my tortoise ARSE ....rcs1000 said:
Oi!bigjohnowls said:Looks like an early night.
JackW looks amazingly accurate at this stage.
Balls talking Balls if Con have 20 or more seats than Lab IMO
I was much more accurate: lower on LDs than JackW, higher on the Cons
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Bedford staying blue according to BBC...0
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McCluskey will hang the EdStone around someone's neck in the morning.0
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LD lost deposit count, ah feck it i'm not going to count all 450.0
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Tory holds according to BBC:
Brighton Kemptown
Colne Valley
Hove
Enfield North
Croydon Central
Ipswich
Nuneaton0 -
BBC giving Gedling to the Tories! I tipped that as a possible Tory gain from Labour...0
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Kudos to Robert and Mike for that.Slackbladder said:
It's holding up wellTheScreamingEagles said:A 1,000 comments in less than two hours.
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Libs think Lewes is in trouble.0
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Scott_P said:
@paulhutcheon: Rumours that David Mundell, the sole Tory MP in Scotland, is toast #GE2015
RIP 0 -
I think the worst is the Sophie Rayworth map and the impending vox pop.numbertwelve said:Oh no. Jeremy Vine in the Matrix. The worst bit of election nights.
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Perhaps not the greatest surprise of the night, to be honest.Scott_P said:@paulhutcheon: Rumours that David Mundell, the sole Tory MP in Scotland, is toast #GE2015
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Labour projected to gain Thurrock and Pudsey.0
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Labour win Cambridge?0
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If they choose Burnham next time Labour will do worse, McCluskey should learn his lesson and let the more qualified set the agenda.Prodicus said:
Yes, they will. Have.TCPoliticalBetting said:To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn.
For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?
Their dear leader was bought and paid for by their Paymaster, Unite (against the will of MPs and the constituencies). They could not defenestrate Ed without offending Len McCluskey and thus bankrupting the party. After this, McCluskey will install someone electable. The MPs and constituencies will insist on it. Ed is toast.0 -
Is it just me or is the BBC results map not as good as 2010? Why is it made so you have to click onto a different page to view constituency details?0
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Good speach by Ed Davey on Sky - putting on a brave face, bless him...0
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If the SNP have 58 seats then there's no way they would want another election. They'd have to find some way to back track on their "anti-Tory" rhetoric. Probably some sort of deal for extra powers (which the Tories would probably be quite happy to give them if it cost Scotland money).Danny565 said:
Sure, there's no chance at all Labour would get into govt on these figures. But they might still be able to unite to vote against the Tories (hence new election).HYUFD said:Danny565 Labour and the SNP combined are still behind the Tories so that is not strictly correct
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Labour gains according to BBC:
Wolv' SW
Warwicks N
Hendon
Cambridge
Cardiff North0 -
Didn't someone put £50k on Labour largest this morning? OUCH!
Also Mr S was on for 23 seats or less between Con and Lab? OUCH.0 -
Was Nick Clegg a Tory plant in the Lib Dem party to destroy it ?
I hope Clegg, Alexander, Laws lose. Its difficult to think who these 10 are.0 -
Per BBC website:
2015 electorate: 46.425m
2010 electorate: 45.608m
Up 1.8%
Per me: I think it is up less than population.0 -
Really, really, honestly don't see Labour winning Soton Itchen. It is a southern seat, and Labour are simply done down here. No tellers today. Have seen only 2 posters in 2 constituencies down here.0
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The exit poll is predicting that Labour will win Thurrock.
So what is the second UKIP seat?0 -
Mr. England, ha, was thinking something similar.0
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plus it doesn't autorefresh. GRRGravitation said:Is it just me or is the BBC results map not as good as 2010? Why is it made so you have to click onto a different page to view constituency details?
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Was Thurrock there too ?AndyJS said:Labour gains according to BBC:
Wolv' SW
Warwicks N
Hendon
Cambridge
Cardiff North
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couldn't see Broxtowe didyou ?AndyJS said:Labour gains according to BBC:
Wolv' SW
Warwicks N
Hendon
Cambridge
Cardiff North0 -
If the exit poll is correct it's a shockingly good yet pyrrhic victory for Cameron.
He won't want to form a government with a tiny majority. His hope of governing with the Lib Dems will be dashed (they'll surely shun it anyway) and he will be facing a difficult Major'esque few years as PM.0 -
@BBCAllegra: Watching list of poss Tory gains: Mary MacLeoud hangs on! Senior Tory strategist told me they'd get Norman Baker Lewes. I laughed. Silly me?0
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the SNP effect = ed is crap (losing 59 seats in one go doesn't for some reason "not count" because they are Scottish seats)The_Apocalypse said:
You really think the Conservatives being ahead by 77 is due to EdStone? Really? It's probably the SNP effect combined with Miliband's approval ratings, and people have little confidence in Labour's competence.Ishmael_X said:
No one is making any such assumption.The_Apocalypse said:
That's because Tories are too busy celebrating and thinking Labour will never be the largest party in a parliament ever again. I understand being happy; what I don't understand is why you'd assume based on tonight's results the Tories will govern the UK forever. A tad hyperbolic from many on here.Danny565 said:
Yes - I think something that's being missed in this is that, even on the basis of the exit poll, although the Tories would be the "winners", it would still be very hard for the Tories to get things through parliament. A new election would beckon, unless the Tories can get a few more seats than the exit.FrancisUrquhart said:Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?
Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.
PS If you'd like me to talk you through the Sheffield Effect and the EdStone again I'm here all night.
And some are making such assumptions, claiming Labour are becoming 'obsolete', and that Labour will become 'extinct' outside of London, and are collapsing 'piece by piece, region by region'.
Miliband's approval ratings = ed is crap
the Sheffield Effect = the electorate suddenly takes on board at a specific moment in the fortnight before the election that the LOTO is too crap to govern.
And if Labour collapses it will be replaced by something else, so it won't be tories for ever.0 -
Is there something big on?TheScreamingEagles said:A 1,000 comments in less than two hours.
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@paulhutcheon: This is big. I understand Tom Greatrex, who has the second safest @scottishlabour seat, is looking vulnerable #GE20150
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Or if the majority of Scots have voted for Unionist candidates and end up with 1 seat.FrankBooth said:What do we think about vote percentages? If Ukip overperform and SNP get 58 MPs I can just hear the anger.
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So the Libdems 10 does not include Cambridge, Lewes and Thornbury. Only slightly more incumbency needed to be found for the 11-20 bet to be safe0
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Why does BBC map not give result for individual seat when you click on it (like it did in 2010).0
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didn't see it on either the Tory or Labour list. Maybe it's one of the UKIP seatsAlanbrooke said:
couldn't see Broxtowe didyou ?AndyJS said:Labour gains according to BBC:
Wolv' SW
Warwicks N
Hendon
Cambridge
Cardiff North 0 -
Wonderful expression, "government of the losers"0
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It's the buildup thread to TSE's big AV thread due to be published sooncorporeal said:
Is there something big on?TheScreamingEagles said:A 1,000 comments in less than two hours.
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Who'd have thought ARSE would be the new Gold Standard!0
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And you can't click on the Sky map at all!RobD said:
plus it doesn't autorefresh. GRRGravitation said:Is it just me or is the BBC results map not as good as 2010? Why is it made so you have to click onto a different page to view constituency details?
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If Labour have lost on this scale, it is because Labour didn't give its potential supporters enough of a reason to go out and vote for them.
But what a stunning exit poll.0 -
Huge smiles on SNP at Motherwell count.0
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I silly straw in the wind..
Mrs Urquhart, somebody who fits exactly the demographic Miliband was trying to woo and agrees with many of the problems he identified and was going to vote Labour.
She informed me earlier in the end she couldn't do it...her description was "In the end, I wouldn't trust him to open a packet of crisps"...I said, but you might get Cameron then and she said so be it.
I honestly shocked at the time, but maybe there has been a hell of a lot more "Mrs Urquhart"'s up and down the country..0 -
Brilliant at last by Peter Kellner: the tories wouldn't need 326. 316 would be fine to govern alone.0
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Extreme caution required on the low LibDem seat numbers.
Exit poll based on LibDems losing Cambridge, Lewes and Thornbury & Yate .... Hhhmmm0 -
Whatever else is happening those of us who are on the Lost Deposits to lose many.many deposits are sitting pretty.Maybe over 500?0
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Turnout almost exactly 2010 figures.RodCrosby said:Average 4% swing to Labour in Sunderland's 3 seats...
Any Geordies, Mackems or Foggies care to comment? Was the Scottish question particularly strong in the NE? Did the kippers pledge to end Barnett go down particularly well there?0 -
Butcher Burnham would be my preferred choice as Labour leader by a long way. He'd lose worse than Miliband. So much blood on his hands.macisback said:
If they choose Burnham next time Labour will do worse, McCluskey should learn his lesson and let the more qualified set the agenda.Prodicus said:
Yes, they will. Have.TCPoliticalBetting said:To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn.
For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?
Their dear leader was bought and paid for by their Paymaster, Unite (against the will of MPs and the constituencies). They could not defenestrate Ed without offending Len McCluskey and thus bankrupting the party. After this, McCluskey will install someone electable. The MPs and constituencies will insist on it. Ed is toast.
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LOL or SNP :-)Danny565 said:
didn't see it on either the Tory or Labour list. Maybe it's one of the UKIP seatsAlanbrooke said:
couldn't see Broxtowe didyou ?AndyJS said:Labour gains according to BBC:
Wolv' SW
Warwicks N
Hendon
Cambridge
Cardiff North0 -
At least one pollster should be embarrassed in the morning.0
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Confession time.
I did put £30 on a Conservative majority at 13/2. That does look lost but worth a punt.0 -
21k majority.Scott_P said:@paulhutcheon: This is big. I understand Tom Greatrex, who has the second safest @scottishlabour seat, is looking vulnerable #GE2015
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Mr. Corporeal, not urgent, but as we wait for results could you check your mail? [Old message from me].0
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To be fair, this was a pretty easy one to call. You knew as well as me that The Midlands was going to be miserable for Labour.Alanbrooke said:
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If were're looking at the polls, the Sheffield Effect has been going on for five years now. Miliband's ratings, for the most part have always been pretty bad. And who do think will replace Labour as the main centre-left party in England - unless of course, you think the centre-left are no longer viable in England....Ishmael_X said:
the SNP effect = ed is crap (losing 59 seats in one go doesn't for some reason "not count" because they are Scottish seats)The_Apocalypse said:
You really think the Conservatives being ahead by 77 is due to EdStone? Really? It's probably the SNP effect combined with Miliband's approval ratings, and people have little confidence in Labour's competence.Ishmael_X said:
No one is making any such assumption.The_Apocalypse said:
That's because Tories are too busy celebrating and thinking Labour will never be the largest party in a parliament ever again. I understand being happy; what I don't understand is why you'd assume based on tonight's results the Tories will govern the UK forever. A tad hyperbolic from many on here.Danny565 said:
Yes - I think something that's being missed in this is that, even on the basis of the exit poll, although the Tories would be the "winners", it would still be very hard for the Tories to get things through parliament. A new election would beckon, unless the Tories can get a few more seats than the exit.FrancisUrquhart said:Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?
Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.
PS If you'd like me to talk you through the Sheffield Effect and the EdStone again I'm here all night.
And some are making such assumptions, claiming Labour are becoming 'obsolete', and that Labour will become 'extinct' outside of London, and are collapsing 'piece by piece, region by region'.
Miliband's approval ratings = ed is crap
the Sheffield Effect = the electorate suddenly takes on board at a specific moment in the fortnight before the election that the LOTO is too crap to govern.
And if Labour collapses it will be replaced by something else, so it won't be tories for ever.
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Ruth Davidson to Jackie Baillie "do you think you're gonna get gubbed tonight".
Best Tory ever.0 -
I did an internet exit poll for Populus this morning. Where is it?0
This discussion has been closed.