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  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    Baskerville said:

    So, have the haters misunderestimated Dave again?

    I wonder who'll be the first to say he's been a luck general. ;-)

    If, indeed, he has been lucky.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Plato said:

    My LD contacts said that the LDs were suffering from a lot of unformed hatred that was an incoherent mishmash of Tuition Fees/Coalition and oddly losses to Kippers as protest party fodder.

    I was surprised by the latter.

    foxinsoxuk said:

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sunderland result points to Tory majority IMO.

    Nonsense. It's a hefty swing to Labour.
    Either a lot of churn or most of those kippers in Sunderland came from UKIP, BNP, LD and Ind. Labour poll up 2000 and Con down 1000.

    Con vote holding up well.
    I've been saying the latter over the past month. It was, IMHO, readable from several of Ashcroft's marginal polls.

  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    isam said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Speedy said:

    Swing of 4% to Labour, but UKIP leapfrogged the exit poll prediction for Sunderland.

    But UKIP only 7% better than the BNP result in 2010
    eh?
    Tories only 4% better than the BNP result in 2010.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    We're getting more than 100 page views a second...

    I have had to kick the server once :-)
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Tory vote up on 2010!!
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?
  • saddened
    saddened Posts: 2,245
    EDW20000 said:

    1st past the post is dead

    You ok hun?
  • TheKrakenAwakes
    TheKrakenAwakes Posts: 553
    Harriet on 5Live can't understand why after 4 million conversations on the doorstep the exit poll suggest something other than she had expected - Yes, Harriet...THEY WERE LYING TO YOU
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Plato said:

    Which has the best coverage - BBC ITV or Sky?

    Sky IMO
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?

    :D:D
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    rcs1000 said:

    Flightpathl said:

    AndyJS said:

    Farage only needs about 32% to win Thanet South and they've just got 22% in Houghton.

    That is an excellent point but Sunderland is a safe Labour seat. And this is a head exploding election. Both exit polls give 2 kipper seats - which 2?
    I reckon they'll get:

    Clacton 100% chance
    Castle Point 75%
    Thurrock 65%
    Thanet South 60%
    Rochester 33%

    We shall see what else...
    Dagenham & Rainham of course
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    The most delicious thought for me is all those lefties in Broadcasting House having to leave untold cases of finest champagne unopened and grumpily making their way home.

    Now let's see some real action from Cameron's new Government mounting a determined effort to eliminate once and for all all that all that deeply entrenched pro-Labour bias.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    williamglenn said:

    Theresa May on Sky, looking like she's spent the last 4 weeks on a spa vacation.

    I thought that is exactly what everybody in the Tory cabinet had been doing?

    Has anybody seen Pickles, Gove, May, Hague, Hammond, Grayling, IDS, Hunt, Morgan, Greening, etc more than once or twice over the past 6 weeks?
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    Has anyone got any sense of the likely vote share from this?
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 8s8 seconds ago
    Final ELBOW update - Labour % leads split into YouGov v. Non-YG polls. YouGov = 0.2% LAB lead, Non-YG = 0.4% LAB lead

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596437942576553987
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?

    Sunderland does not compute.

  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Slackbladder said:

    Plato said:

    Which has the best coverage - BBC ITV or Sky?

    Sky IMO
    Agreed, they seem more switched on.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Good evening, everyone.

    Must admit I think the exit poll is crackers. Then again, I thought the same in 2010.

    Watched Serenity. Never seen Firefly, but I quite enjoyed the film.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeK said:

    AndyJS said:

    My prediction for that first seat was Lab 53%, UKIP 27%.

    When was this?
    At about 9:30pm I posted my constituency predictions for all GB regions apart from the NW (unfortunately I ran out of time to finish it).
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    EDW20000 said:

    1st past the post is dead

    Nonsense. If this exit poll is right, then first past the post is surprisingly safe. Tories have no reason to change voting method (neither do Labour).
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?

    Scottish changes could make that happen
  • FattyBolger
    FattyBolger Posts: 299
    Agree with RodCrosby. Tories must not be hubristic. Too early, too early for that.

    Fair play to lefties who are fronting up at the moment.

    I still fear a disateously inaccurate exit poll seats outcome
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Danny565 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Who is the next Labour leader?

    Andy Burnham. UKIP look like being the big winners (in votes albeit not seats), making it vital Labour get a real humanbeing in.
    Burnham? I can't see him being PM in 2020 by a long shot!
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Danny565 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Who is the next Labour leader?

    Andy Burnham. UKIP look like being the big winners (in votes albeit not seats), making it vital Labour get a real humanbeing in.
    Mr Stafford Hospital himself?
  • macisback
    macisback Posts: 382
    Plato said:

    Which has the best coverage - BBC ITV or Sky?

    Sky, Robbo shouldn't be there for the BBC the poor lad isn't well.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour vote up by 1,464 votes in Sunderland Central.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TSE I got locked on screen then it took me 20 mins to get back in again.. if you are in you are ok..
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?


    Foot was EdM's political hero. It's apt.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    edited May 2015
    Another huge UKIP in Sunderland Central.

    I think the Tories are getting ahead of themselves and 15 UKIP is actually possible.

    Green beat Lib Dem again.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    Slackbladder said:

    Plato said:

    Which has the best coverage - BBC ITV or Sky?

    Sky IMO
    Oh its funny on BBC, as most of them look like they are going to burst into tears.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Great result for the Greens in Sunderland Central...
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Tories down quite heavily again in Sunderland Central...
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Neil's going to owe you £400 when all this is sadi and done, Eagles.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Con second in Sunderland central.
  • kjohnw
    kjohnw Posts: 1,456
    SeanT said:

    kjohnw said:

    SeanT said:

    OMG Ed Balls in trouble

    Oh Oh Oh

    *reaches for Kleenex*

    so no longer a labour plurality then eh sean!
    NOPE.

    IF - if if if - IF this exit poll is right, then I am, as regards this election, a TOTAL FUCKWIT.

    And kudos to Southam and, even more, JackW.

    but a happy fuckwit though?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Danny565 said:

    Tories down quite heavily again in Sunderland Central...

    Making for a leaner, more efficient vote :D
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?

    It would make sense if the exit poll is correct.

  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    LOL BBC miss the declaration!
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Thanx just changed channel

    Sky IMO

  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    edited May 2015
    Interesting.

    These are safe seats. Not that the GP necessarily know the nuances of their own seats but will be interesting to see a closely contested seat.

    Will sort out the UKIP sheep from the NOTA lambs.
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    Labour vote only up 1000 in Sunderland Central...
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Could Barron be in trouble ?
  • Razedabode
    Razedabode Posts: 3,117
    edited May 2015
    Are ukip taking votes off labour then.?
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Sunderland Central Con to Lab swing = 5.5%
  • Moses_
    Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Tories nearly 10k in Sunderland central ... WTF?
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Look out for the Greens. They may well get 5%/6% nationally. I imagine they'll do very well among the under 30s.
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    edited May 2015
    whoops
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    Painful night so far.
  • Stereotomy
    Stereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Sunderland Central Con to Lab swing = 5.5%

    ????????
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    In 2010 the average % for UKIP at the GE was 3.3

    In 2015 after two results it was 19

    n-n-n-n-n-n-n-n-nineteen!
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If the north-east is Labour's best area according to the exit poll, as they said on BBC, they're heading for a very bad night because they're only up by 4 to 5% in these first two seats.
  • bookseller
    bookseller Posts: 508
    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Were you still up for Balls? Ed Balls in trouble in Morley

    When is it declaring?
    4.30am according to here
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Second Sunderland 5.5% swing to Labour, UKIP up 17%.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?

    Sunderland does not compute.

    Don't forget Brown did well in Scotland. If Lab have barely moved in England and are wiped out in Scotland then...
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    DAMMIT.

    I can't help but admire, somehow, EdB.

    No one would be happier if he lost his seat but he is a class act.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Sam#s UKIP bet is on a knife edge imo
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Who's Barron?
    Pulpstar said:

    Could Barron be in trouble ?

  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    @CountfromSesameSt: Two Lib Dem deposits lost.. ah-ah-ah!
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    Could Barron be in trouble ?

    Yes I think he's in deep trouble.
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    Nick Robinson could make a fortune charging for making obscene phone calls......
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Pulpstar said:

    Sam#s UKIP bet is on a knife edge imo

    Yes, it's one of the most interesting bets of the election.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    @WikiGuido: Tories pushing Ed Balls out rumour. Surely not...

    s it me or does Balls look rattled?
  • nigel4england
    nigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Razedabode said:

    Are ukip taking votes off labour then.?

    I've been saying that for months.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    something wrong.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    SouthamObserver said:

    Look out for the Greens. They may well get 5%/6% nationally. I imagine they'll do very well among the under 30s.

    Yes Greens crapping all over Lib Dems so far.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    If the north-east is Labour's best area according to the exit poll, as they said on BBC, they're heading for a very bad night because they're only up by 4 to 5% in these first two seats.

    Thats why we have to wait for a seat out of the NE.
  • Saltire
    Saltire Posts: 525
    The Conservatives losing votes where it does not matter. The inbuilt bias that Labour had in the electoral system may well be gone after this. Indeed it might actually favour the Tories now.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    isam said:

    In 2010 the average % for UKIP at the GE was 3.3

    In 2015 after two results it was 19

    n-n-n-n-n-n-n-n-nineteen!

    LOL!

    Who got on a UKIP second places spread bet?
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    Terrible exit poll for Labour and a superb one for the Tories.

    I'm a little devastated obviously but if this mirrors the actual results then congrats to all the Tories on here.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Wow: Somerset & Frome down 22% LDs forecast
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,458
    BBC "still a little bit shell-shocked..."

    LOL
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    rcs1000 said:

    Wow: Somerset & Frome down 22% LDs forecast

    no incumbent, of course
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Will the BBC feed these numbers into their exit poll, and provide an updated one?
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    I've got a bad feeling about this
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Lib Dems are looking utterly Norwegian Blue.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Could Barron be in trouble ?

    Yes I think he's in deep trouble.
    Yorkshire could be bad for Labour on the basis of this and Balls.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    If we hadn't had the exit poll, there wouldn't have been anything notable about the first two results.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    murali_s said:

    Terrible exit poll for Labour and a superb one for the Tories.

    I'm a little devastated obviously but if this mirrors the actual results then congrats to all the Tories on here.

    Very gracious of you.

    Still very very early days! have faith
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Tories projected to GAIN HAZEL GROVE - BBC

    Told you guys weeks ago you should get on it ;)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Pulpstar said:

    Neil's going to owe you £400 when all this is sadi and done, Eagles.

    I hope so.

    I think he'd be delighted to lose that bet.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    In 2010 the average % for UKIP at the GE was 3.3

    In 2015 after two results it was 19

    n-n-n-n-n-n-n-n-nineteen!

    LOL!

    Who got on a UKIP second places spread bet?
    They SPIN guy on here backed over 100 at 2/1
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    something wrong.

    Unfortunately Rod we will have to wait another 90 minutes at least to know.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Hazel Grove forecast Con Gain?! Good grief, no wonder Cameron hasn't slept for 3 days. He must be sensing a majority.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    CON gaining their 124th target seat???
  • Moses_
    Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Ed Balls on Sky.. If exit poll right Cameron would be clinging on

    Sky ticker -- Labour source stating Labour have wiped out the coalition based on exit poll

    I reckon Balls knows he is fecked
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Don't think LD are that confident in Redcar! :lol::lol::lol:
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    isam said:

    In 2010 the average % for UKIP at the GE was 3.3

    In 2015 after two results it was 19

    n-n-n-n-n-n-n-n-nineteen!

    Paul Hardcastle or Commentators?

    (to save bandwidth):
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3bl4xaFZMM

    On topic: If UKIP get 19% they'll have done superbly.
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    That 'why dividends?' remark, soooo Ed Miliband and 1970s Labour, was the end of Ed Miliband for the reality based community of working people.
  • JonCisBack
    JonCisBack Posts: 911
    Hazel Grove going blue?!

    Momentous events...
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    murali_s said:

    Terrible exit poll for Labour and a superb one for the Tories.

    I'm a little devastated obviously but if this mirrors the actual results then congrats to all the Tories on here.

    Don't be to downbeat, most of us Tories have doubts about this poll.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Percentages after two results:

    Lab 52.6%
    Con 21.0%
    UKIP 20.3%
    Greens 3.5%
    LD 2.4%

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    isam said:

    In 2010 the average % for UKIP at the GE was 3.3

    In 2015 after two results it was 19

    n-n-n-n-n-n-n-n-nineteen!

    Top post :lol::lol:
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    I hope I've done my sums right !
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2015
    St Ives projected to be gained by Tories but on "only" a 4% swing, according to the lovely Emily.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Tories nearly 10k in Sunderland central ... WTF?

    It was 12000 last time
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    RobD said:

    Will the BBC feed these numbers into their exit poll, and provide an updated one?

    They will have late exit poll returns and first results to add, from memory they made a slight adjustment by a couple of seats last time around midnight.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. S, gracious words, although there's a long way to go and the exit poll came with a health warning the day before it was done.

    No really useful results yet.

    Can't believe the Lib Dems would be down to 10.
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    Breakdown of the exit poll shows massive LD to Cons swing: 15% swing and also big LD to Lab swings.

    Some incumbency bonus for LDs: 7% swing LD to Con.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    GIN1138 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?

    Sunderland does not compute.

    Don't forget Brown did well in Scotland. If Lab have barely moved in England and are wiped out in Scotland then...
    Labour have had two excellent results in Sunderland, compared to 2010.

    Something's wrong.
  • Eh_ehm_a_eh
    Eh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    LD lost deposit count 2
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