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  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Bad omen for Ed Balls as well.

    Please, PLEASE PLEASE can we have an Ed Balls 'moment' tonight!
    Balls, Alexanders, Kennedy and Cable moments all to come...
  • JGC
    JGC Posts: 64
    The increase in labour's vote in Sunderland - 4.8% is dead in line with all the final polls, not sure swing is relevant due to the increase in UKIP. John Curtice's explanation made some sense ie that Labour has done well in some places but gone backwards in other places and the LDs simply wont win many seats on 8%. I suspect if there is so much local variation not only will we see some very odd results but the exit poll itself is a lot of guesswork.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    UKIP +18.8%

    Hmm...
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    GIN1138 said:

    I remember when Tony got his landslide Sunderland gave Labour 30,000+ votes.

    Ed seem's to have barely improved on what Brown did...

    Again, caveating like mad here, but if the result is as the exit poll says, I think they should erect the EdStone outside the Sheffield Arena as a monument to Labour failure..
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Ed Balls could be in trouble!
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    With this parliament, that EU referendum is going to be interesting.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Saltire said:

    Sandpit said:

    And first of how many LD lost deposits?

    200+? A fair chunk of change for the party to shell out no matter what.
    I think deposits are always put up by local parties...
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Due to declare at 3am
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Bad omen for Ed Balls as well.

    Please, PLEASE PLEASE can we have an Ed Balls 'moment' tonight!
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Guy Adams ‏@guyadams 2 mins2 minutes ago

    I have it on moderately good authority that Milibean only did the Russell Brand interview because their postal vote numbers where shiteous


    Rumours, but makes sense...
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited May 2015
    Were you still up for Balls? Ed Balls in trouble in Morley
  • JonCisBack
    JonCisBack Posts: 911
    Paddy Ashdown's hat has got its own twitter account!

    Twitter is excellent
  • JonathanD
    JonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited May 2015
    Dair said:

    Ed Balls could be in trouble!

    Shame, Balls was a great vote winner for the Tories.

  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    Sunderland result points to Tory majority IMO.

    Nonsense. It's a hefty swing to Labour.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Who is the next Labour leader?
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    If Tories get a majority and SNP take 58 seats there is no option but Home Rule inc FFA.
  • YBarddCwsc
    YBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Danny565 said:

    Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?

    Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.

    I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.

    But Balls is the one of a very very few Labour front benchers who really do know what they are talking about when it comes to economics / business. He has just had to go along with a lot of the anti-business nonsense that Ed has been spouting, while he and Chukka have been running around telling businessmen no no it won't be like that.

    No, Labour needs to start again. Best for all if the old guard goes.

    Agree with that.

    If the exit poll is right, then Labour are in a far worse position than after the 2005 election. It will take a candidate with real skill and boldness to put the party back together.

    Very sad personally for Ed Miliband, who will have risked a lot in family harmony for his chance to be leader. I feel sorry for him.

    But, unhappily, I always thought he was a crap leader.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    HYUFD said:

    Were you still up for Balls? Ed Balls in trouble in Morley

    When is it declaring?
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    I think Balls is in trouble - Lab could go sub 225
  • macisback
    macisback Posts: 382

    Danny565 said:

    Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?

    Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.

    I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.

    But Balls is the one of a very very few Labour front benchers who really do know what they are talking about when it comes to economics / business. He has just had to go along with a lot of the anti-business nonsense that Ed has been spouting, while he and Chukka have been running around telling businessmen no no it won't be like that.
    Balls and Umunna are realistic and have some vision and original rhetoric the rest of the Labour front-bench mediocre at best, most boring automatons, or even worse Union funded stooges. For the good of the country they need a serious rethink, even if the final result is nearer the yougov they need a revamp.
  • JGC
    JGC Posts: 64
    There is an issue here between predictions and polls assuming some some of uniform behaviour and the exit poll based on statistical analysis of changing data only one method can be right in this case.......
  • JonCisBack
    JonCisBack Posts: 911
    Turnout in Sun S was 56%! Lazy feckers
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PSbook: Ed Balls
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @steve_hawkes: William Hill now offering 6/4 Ed Miliband resigns before midnight tomorrow

    But, but, but EICIPM !!!!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Scott_P said:

    @PSbook: Ed Balls

    Two Ed Balls days in one year? We're spoilt.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edited May 2015
    One lefty will be happy with this result...Russell Brand...another 5 years of material for him to flog to the twitter masses.

    Oh F##k off Campbell...SO says Labour need a clear out, they need to get rid of Campebell, just get him away from all media. He immediately has me feeling anti-Labour feelings, when I have a lot of time for many Labour MPs, he just instantly makes me angry.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Is that UKIPs best ever GE vote share?!
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    For anyone who doesn't have it = DECLARATION TIMES
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    My prediction for that first seat was Lab 53%, UKIP 27%.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sunderland result points to Tory majority IMO.

    Nonsense. It's a hefty swing to Labour.
    But it potentially points to 25 Con gains from the LibDems

    *But*

    there are clearly a lot of very, very, very close seats
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sunderland result points to Tory majority IMO.

    Nonsense. It's a hefty swing to Labour.
    However the exit polls was predicting a 5% swing, only a 4% one was delivered. If repeated across the country we could be looking at a tiny majority.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Labour people are speaking like they think the exit poll might be right
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    I'm having doubts about the exit...
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    Dair said:

    If Tories get a majority and SNP take 58 seats there is no option but Home Rule inc FFA.

    Yes, it's a big problem for the future. But for now I think the Conservatives will just want to focus on putting together a Government.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Scott_P said:

    @steve_hawkes: William Hill now offering 6/4 Ed Miliband resigns before midnight tomorrow

    But, but, but EICIPM !!!!

    You do realise that means its odds on (more likely) that he wont?
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Campbell spinning 239 seats as good.

    Mentalist.
  • Flightpathl
    Flightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Danny565 said:

    Judging by the Sunderland result compared to the projection, it seems the exit poll slightly overstated both Tories and Labour, and understated UKIP.

    Yes but only slightly according to the pollster.
    I was in the Royal Blenheim when the exit came out on the TV and choked on my pint of bitter. I do not believe it. But if it is half right it would be amazing. As for Sunderland - each Sunderland seat is different. What is driving the kipper vote? Is it anti Labour?? The pollster says that Yorkshire is v bad for Labour.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Turnout was up by just 1% in Houghton & Sunderland South.
  • kjohnw
    kjohnw Posts: 1,456
    SeanT said:

    OMG Ed Balls in trouble

    Oh Oh Oh

    *reaches for Kleenex*

    so no longer a labour plurality then eh sean!
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    isam said:

    Is that UKIPs best ever GE vote share?!

    I feel rather sorry for UKIP. They're going to have c. 12%, and fewer than 5 seats.

  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour must be very nervous in Rother Valley after that first result.
  • EDW20000
    EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Exit poll is bollox, spin looking for stupid con buyers
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    edited May 2015
    Edgbaston could be at risk at 00:45

    Edit-might be 0530 actually.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    RodCrosby said:

    I'm having doubts about the exit...

    Well have to wait till Nuneaton, I doubt too that the only place with a heavy Labour swing is the NE of England.
    Curtice might be a prophet if his prediction that his exit poll will be rubbish turns correct.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    rcs1000 said:

    Who is the next Labour leader?

    Andy Burnham. UKIP look like being the big winners (in votes albeit not seats), making it vital Labour get a real humanbeing in.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Rod, isn't this in line with your original L&N model? How serious are your doubts?
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sunderland result points to Tory majority IMO.

    Nonsense. It's a hefty swing to Labour.
    Either a lot of churn or most of those kippers in Sunderland came from UKIP, BNP, LD and Ind. Labour poll up 2000 and Con down 1000.

    Con vote holding up well.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 39 secs40 seconds ago
    Final ELBOW update - Labour % leads, split into Phone v. Online polls. Phone = 0.5% CON lead, Online = 0.5% LAB lead!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596435872121278464
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Malcolm Bruce at Gordon count "bad for Lib dems, terrible for UK" - he's admitting defeat after watching the count.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Is that UKIPs best ever GE vote share?!

    I feel rather sorry for UKIP. They're going to have c. 12%, and fewer than 5 seats.

    I'll take 12% and 4!
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edited May 2015
    Paddy Ashdown is making a tw@t of himself. Showing himself to be totally ignorant.

  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Perhaps Labour can take some solace from Nicola and her Nats giving Dave and co a hard time while the new Chuka Umunna administration find their feet
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Is that UKIPs best ever GE vote share?!

    I feel rather sorry for UKIP. They're going to have c. 12%, and fewer than 5 seats.

    To be fair to FPTP it encourages parties to show they're up to it in local government first. I voted Ukip in Woking today. I know they won't win, but at least it helps the share of the vote and may encourage others to vote Ukip in the future.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    AndyJS said:

    Labour must be very nervous in Rother Valley after that first result.

    I suspect there are going to be a lot of seats where UKIP falls just short
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @owenjbennett: Labour source at South Thanet count reckons ukip third, with Tory/labour fighting it out for win. #GE2015
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Is that UKIPs best ever GE vote share?!

    I feel rather sorry for UKIP. They're going to have c. 12%, and fewer than 5 seats.

    We're going to have a lot more that 12%, #rcs1000
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Roger said:

    Perhaps Labour can take some solace from Nicola and her Nats giving Dave and co a hard time while the new Chuka Umunna administration find their feet

    Sorry about Edinburgh and Aberdeen South btw - I ended up slightly on Murray in Edi South
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Scott_P said:

    @owenjbennett: Labour source at South Thanet count reckons ukip third, with Tory/labour fighting it out for win. #GE2015

    That'd be delicious.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2015

    Rod, isn't this in line with your original L&N model? How serious are your doubts?

    Not sure what's happening. Although the Sunderland seats overestimated the Tories in 2010. Could be Labour's turn tonight.

    The UKIP change is phenomenal...
  • Eh_ehm_a_eh
    Eh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Only tories can save SLAB.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Can I remind everyone that about two-thirds of my posts in the last three weeks were tipping LibDems 11-20 seats at 4-1
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour must be very nervous in Rother Valley after that first result.

    I suspect there are going to be a lot of seats where UKIP falls just short
    They've got 22% in a seat where no-one thought they'd do particularly well, and in a number of constituencies 30% is enough to win.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    My LD contacts said that the LDs were suffering from a lot of unformed hatred that was an incoherent mishmash of Tuition Fees/Coalition and oddly losses to Kippers as protest party fodder.

    I was surprised by the latter.

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sunderland result points to Tory majority IMO.

    Nonsense. It's a hefty swing to Labour.
    Either a lot of churn or most of those kippers in Sunderland came from UKIP, BNP, LD and Ind. Labour poll up 2000 and Con down 1000.

    Con vote holding up well.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Even if the tories slip a bit, if they remain above 300 it's a very good night for them.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    AndyJS said:

    My prediction for that first seat was Lab 53%, UKIP 27%.

    When was this?
  • EDW20000
    EDW20000 Posts: 138
    1st past the post is dead
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Is the site holding up for everyone?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour must be very nervous in Rother Valley after that first result.

    I suspect there are going to be a lot of seats where UKIP falls just short
    They've got 22% in a seat where no-one thought they'd do particularly well, and in a number of constituencies 30% is enough to win.
    UKIP + BNP of 8% in 2010 was one of the highest in the country.

    But I suspect UKIP 5 seats is quite a likely outcome.
    I'd be a buyer here of UKIP seats...
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sunderland result points to Tory majority IMO.

    Nonsense. It's a hefty swing to Labour.
    I meant relative to what was being said on BBC where they said they expected a 9% increase in the Labour vote from their exit poll data. It was actually 5%.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608

    Is the site holding up for everyone?

    I'm on polticalbetting.vanillaforums.com, and it is working fine!
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited May 2015
    The NE of England used to be extremely Labour - before the Lib Dems came in. It looks as if the lib dems have gone back to labour in droves. The total votes cast is only 500 more than 2010.

    Unfortunately for Labour an additional 2000 votes in Houghton means SFA.

    I gather the exit poll forecast 5% Cons to Labour and it came in at 4%.

    So far we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the poll is accurate.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    macisback said:

    Danny565 said:

    Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?

    Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.

    I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.

    But Balls is the one of a very very few Labour front benchers who really do know what they are talking about when it comes to economics / business. He has just had to go along with a lot of the anti-business nonsense that Ed has been spouting, while he and Chukka have been running around telling businessmen no no it won't be like that.
    Balls and Umunna are realistic and have some vision and original rhetoric the rest of the Labour front-bench mediocre at best, most boring automatons, or even worse Union funded stooges. For the good of the country they need a serious rethink, even if the final result is nearer the yougov they need a revamp.
    I let you into a little secret...I met Umunna fairly recently and he came across well. Certainly a bit slippery, but he did actually have an idea what he was talking about.

    Then I come home and hear Ed Miliband giving it the massive anti-business, goodies vs badies, "why do companies pay a dividend" nonsense.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Labour insider. "It's over...it's over."

    Was it Ed?
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Labour 4.7 on Betfair in Thurrock
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Is that UKIPs best ever GE vote share?!

    I feel rather sorry for UKIP. They're going to have c. 12%, and fewer than 5 seats.

    I'll take 12% and 4!
    I had 12% and 6.
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Is that UKIPs best ever GE vote share?!

    I feel rather sorry for UKIP. They're going to have c. 12%, and fewer than 5 seats.

    I'll take 12% and 4!
    1. Well done in Sunderland
    2. 12% = IOU £20!!
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    rcs1000 said:

    Can I remind everyone that about two-thirds of my posts in the last three weeks were tipping LibDems 11-20 seats at 4-1

    I just ended up covering all the Lib Dem bands
  • saddened
    saddened Posts: 2,245
    The exit may well be wrong, but it's hilarious to see the gobshites have taken cover. Distinct lack of squirrel hilarity.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950

    Is the site holding up for everyone?

    A bit dodgy in the minutes after the exit poll but settling down now.
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Danny565 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Who is the next Labour leader?

    Andy Burnham. UKIP look like being the big winners (in votes albeit not seats), making it vital Labour get a real humanbeing in.
    Agreed. Can't see anyone better than Burnham. Umunna or Reeves as shadow chancellor.

    On balance even given the exit poll being right I'd imagine Balls will hold on, but will be to the backbenches.

  • Eh_ehm_a_eh
    Eh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Dair said:

    Malcolm Bruce at Gordon count "bad for Lib dems, terrible for UK" - he's admitting defeat after watching the count.

    Can't be, Eck was the prize for the tacticals.

  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Plato said:

    My LD contacts said that the LDs were suffering from a lot of unformed hatred that was an incoherent mishmash of Tuition Fees/Coalition and oddly losses to Kippers as protest party fodder.

    I was surprised by the latter.

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sunderland result points to Tory majority IMO.

    Nonsense. It's a hefty swing to Labour.
    Either a lot of churn or most of those kippers in Sunderland came from UKIP, BNP, LD and Ind. Labour poll up 2000 and Con down 1000.

    Con vote holding up well.
    Nah: 10% of voters are "I'm sick of the lot of them and I'd like a new type of politics."

    LDs got that in 2010
    UKIP in 2015

    UKIP would be wise not to get into coalition with anyone :-)
  • Flightpathl
    Flightpathl Posts: 1,243
    AndyJS said:

    Farage only needs about 32% to win Thanet South and they've just got 22% in Houghton.

    That is an excellent point but Sunderland is a safe Labour seat. And this is a head exploding election. Both exit polls give 2 kipper seats - which 2?
  • Baskerville
    Baskerville Posts: 391
    So, have the haters misunderestimated Dave again?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    tlg86 said:

    Is the site holding up for everyone?

    A bit dodgy in the minutes after the exit poll but settling down now.
    That was PB Tories (myself included) getting all excited.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053

    Is the site holding up for everyone?

    A bit slower, but not all that bad, TSE.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    Theresa May on Sky, looking like she's spent the last 4 weeks on a spa vacation.
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    is there a local opt out in election coverage? We just had a couple of minutes of commercials
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    edited May 2015

    Is the site holding up for everyone?

    Yes, great job by the admins and moderators. :d

    700 comments in 70 mins on this thread!!!
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Ed Balls doesn't seem to be able to calculate that 316 + 10 = 326.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sunderland result points to Tory majority IMO.

    Nonsense. It's a hefty swing to Labour.
    I meant relative to what was being said on BBC where they said they expected a 9% increase in the Labour vote from their exit poll data. It was actually 5%.
    I don't buy it, so far. Unless the country is tearing itself apart, swing-wise...
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    What are PBers least likely winning bets tonight? Mine would be Con win Great Grimsby....
  • JGC
    JGC Posts: 64
    I am sure there will be lots of these sort of things as the votes pile onto the tables, not sure this fits in the with exit poll. It does fit with earlier tweets from UKIP in Thurrock suggesting they havent won there either

    "Labour source at South Thanet count reckons ukip third, with Tory/labour fighting it out for win. #GE2015"
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    edited May 2015

    AndyJS said:

    Farage only needs about 32% to win Thanet South and they've just got 22% in Houghton.

    That is an excellent point but Sunderland is a safe Labour seat. And this is a head exploding election. Both exit polls give 2 kipper seats - which 2?
    I reckon they'll get:

    Clacton 100% chance
    Castle Point 75%
    Thurrock 65%
    Thanet South 60%
    Rochester 33%

    We shall see what else...
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    saddened said:

    The exit may well be wrong, but it's hilarious to see the gobshites have taken cover. Distinct lack of squirrel hilarity.

    1. Owen Jones
    2. Ed Balls
    3. Compouter

    What a night.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Tim_B said:

    is there a local opt out in election coverage? We just had a couple of minutes of commercials

    That was a BBC news break.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950

    So, have the haters misunderestimated Dave again?

    As far as I'm concerned he's failed to win an election. Again.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    AndyJS said:

    Ed Balls doesn't seem to be able to calculate that 316 + 10 = 326.

    Quite frankly on those numbers why do think the LDs will be going into coalition with the Conservatives?
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Which has the best coverage - BBC ITV or Sky?
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: It is with (very little) regret that the management of DUEMA (the Don't Underestimate Ed Mili Association) announce organisation to close.
This discussion has been closed.