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The increase in labour's vote in Sunderland - 4.8% is dead in line with all the final polls, not sure swing is relevant due to the increase in UKIP. John Curtice's explanation made some sense ie that Labour has done well in some places but gone backwards in other places and the LDs simply wont win many seats on 8%. I suspect if there is so much local variation not only will we see some very odd results but the exit poll itself is a lot of guesswork.0
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UKIP +18.8%
Hmm...0 -
Again, caveating like mad here, but if the result is as the exit poll says, I think they should erect the EdStone outside the Sheffield Arena as a monument to Labour failure..GIN1138 said:I remember when Tony got his landslide Sunderland gave Labour 30,000+ votes.
Ed seem's to have barely improved on what Brown did...0 -
Ed Balls could be in trouble!0
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With this parliament, that EU referendum is going to be interesting.0
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Guy Adams @guyadams 2 mins2 minutes ago
I have it on moderately good authority that Milibean only did the Russell Brand interview because their postal vote numbers where shiteous
Rumours, but makes sense...0 -
Were you still up for Balls? Ed Balls in trouble in Morley0
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Paddy Ashdown's hat has got its own twitter account!
Twitter is excellent0 -
Who is the next Labour leader?0
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If Tories get a majority and SNP take 58 seats there is no option but Home Rule inc FFA.0
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Agree with that.SouthamObserver said:
No, Labour needs to start again. Best for all if the old guard goes.FrancisUrquhart said:
But Balls is the one of a very very few Labour front benchers who really do know what they are talking about when it comes to economics / business. He has just had to go along with a lot of the anti-business nonsense that Ed has been spouting, while he and Chukka have been running around telling businessmen no no it won't be like that.SouthamObserver said:
Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.Danny565 said:Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?
I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.
If the exit poll is right, then Labour are in a far worse position than after the 2005 election. It will take a candidate with real skill and boldness to put the party back together.
Very sad personally for Ed Miliband, who will have risked a lot in family harmony for his chance to be leader. I feel sorry for him.
But, unhappily, I always thought he was a crap leader.0 -
I think Balls is in trouble - Lab could go sub 2250
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Balls and Umunna are realistic and have some vision and original rhetoric the rest of the Labour front-bench mediocre at best, most boring automatons, or even worse Union funded stooges. For the good of the country they need a serious rethink, even if the final result is nearer the yougov they need a revamp.FrancisUrquhart said:
But Balls is the one of a very very few Labour front benchers who really do know what they are talking about when it comes to economics / business. He has just had to go along with a lot of the anti-business nonsense that Ed has been spouting, while he and Chukka have been running around telling businessmen no no it won't be like that.SouthamObserver said:
Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.Danny565 said:Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?
I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.
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There is an issue here between predictions and polls assuming some some of uniform behaviour and the exit poll based on statistical analysis of changing data only one method can be right in this case.......0
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Turnout in Sun S was 56%! Lazy feckers0
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@steve_hawkes: William Hill now offering 6/4 Ed Miliband resigns before midnight tomorrow
But, but, but EICIPM !!!!0 -
One lefty will be happy with this result...Russell Brand...another 5 years of material for him to flog to the twitter masses.
Oh F##k off Campbell...SO says Labour need a clear out, they need to get rid of Campebell, just get him away from all media. He immediately has me feeling anti-Labour feelings, when I have a lot of time for many Labour MPs, he just instantly makes me angry.0 -
Is that UKIPs best ever GE vote share?!0
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For anyone who doesn't have it = DECLARATION TIMES0
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My prediction for that first seat was Lab 53%, UKIP 27%.0
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Mirror front page:
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03296/election-mirror_3296144b.jpg
titter.0 -
Labour people are speaking like they think the exit poll might be right0
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I'm having doubts about the exit...0
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Yes, it's a big problem for the future. But for now I think the Conservatives will just want to focus on putting together a Government.Dair said:If Tories get a majority and SNP take 58 seats there is no option but Home Rule inc FFA.
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You do realise that means its odds on (more likely) that he wont?Scott_P said:@steve_hawkes: William Hill now offering 6/4 Ed Miliband resigns before midnight tomorrow
But, but, but EICIPM !!!!0 -
Campbell spinning 239 seats as good.
Mentalist.0 -
Yes but only slightly according to the pollster.Danny565 said:Judging by the Sunderland result compared to the projection, it seems the exit poll slightly overstated both Tories and Labour, and understated UKIP.
I was in the Royal Blenheim when the exit came out on the TV and choked on my pint of bitter. I do not believe it. But if it is half right it would be amazing. As for Sunderland - each Sunderland seat is different. What is driving the kipper vote? Is it anti Labour?? The pollster says that Yorkshire is v bad for Labour.0 -
Turnout was up by just 1% in Houghton & Sunderland South.0
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Labour must be very nervous in Rother Valley after that first result.0
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Exit poll is bollox, spin looking for stupid con buyers0
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Edgbaston could be at risk at 00:45
Edit-might be 0530 actually.0 -
Rod, isn't this in line with your original L&N model? How serious are your doubts?0
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Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 39 secs40 seconds ago
Final ELBOW update - Labour % leads, split into Phone v. Online polls. Phone = 0.5% CON lead, Online = 0.5% LAB lead!
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5964358721212784640 -
Malcolm Bruce at Gordon count "bad for Lib dems, terrible for UK" - he's admitting defeat after watching the count.0
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Paddy Ashdown is making a tw@t of himself. Showing himself to be totally ignorant.
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Perhaps Labour can take some solace from Nicola and her Nats giving Dave and co a hard time while the new Chuka Umunna administration find their feet0
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To be fair to FPTP it encourages parties to show they're up to it in local government first. I voted Ukip in Woking today. I know they won't win, but at least it helps the share of the vote and may encourage others to vote Ukip in the future.rcs1000 said:
I feel rather sorry for UKIP. They're going to have c. 12%, and fewer than 5 seats.isam said:Is that UKIPs best ever GE vote share?!
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@owenjbennett: Labour source at South Thanet count reckons ukip third, with Tory/labour fighting it out for win. #GE20150
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That'd be delicious.Scott_P said:@owenjbennett: Labour source at South Thanet count reckons ukip third, with Tory/labour fighting it out for win. #GE2015
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Not sure what's happening. Although the Sunderland seats overestimated the Tories in 2010. Could be Labour's turn tonight.Casino_Royale said:Rod, isn't this in line with your original L&N model? How serious are your doubts?
The UKIP change is phenomenal...0 -
Only tories can save SLAB.0
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Can I remind everyone that about two-thirds of my posts in the last three weeks were tipping LibDems 11-20 seats at 4-1
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They've got 22% in a seat where no-one thought they'd do particularly well, and in a number of constituencies 30% is enough to win.rcs1000 said:
I suspect there are going to be a lot of seats where UKIP falls just shortAndyJS said:Labour must be very nervous in Rother Valley after that first result.
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My LD contacts said that the LDs were suffering from a lot of unformed hatred that was an incoherent mishmash of Tuition Fees/Coalition and oddly losses to Kippers as protest party fodder.
I was surprised by the latter.foxinsoxuk said:0 -
Even if the tories slip a bit, if they remain above 300 it's a very good night for them.0
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1st past the post is dead0
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Is the site holding up for everyone?0
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UKIP + BNP of 8% in 2010 was one of the highest in the country.AndyJS said:
They've got 22% in a seat where no-one thought they'd do particularly well, and in a number of constituencies 30% is enough to win.rcs1000 said:
I suspect there are going to be a lot of seats where UKIP falls just shortAndyJS said:Labour must be very nervous in Rother Valley after that first result.
But I suspect UKIP 5 seats is quite a likely outcome.
I'd be a buyer here of UKIP seats...0 -
I'm on polticalbetting.vanillaforums.com, and it is working fine!TheScreamingEagles said:Is the site holding up for everyone?
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The NE of England used to be extremely Labour - before the Lib Dems came in. It looks as if the lib dems have gone back to labour in droves. The total votes cast is only 500 more than 2010.
Unfortunately for Labour an additional 2000 votes in Houghton means SFA.
I gather the exit poll forecast 5% Cons to Labour and it came in at 4%.
So far we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the poll is accurate.0 -
I let you into a little secret...I met Umunna fairly recently and he came across well. Certainly a bit slippery, but he did actually have an idea what he was talking about.macisback said:
Balls and Umunna are realistic and have some vision and original rhetoric the rest of the Labour front-bench mediocre at best, most boring automatons, or even worse Union funded stooges. For the good of the country they need a serious rethink, even if the final result is nearer the yougov they need a revamp.FrancisUrquhart said:
But Balls is the one of a very very few Labour front benchers who really do know what they are talking about when it comes to economics / business. He has just had to go along with a lot of the anti-business nonsense that Ed has been spouting, while he and Chukka have been running around telling businessmen no no it won't be like that.SouthamObserver said:
Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.Danny565 said:Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?
I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.
Then I come home and hear Ed Miliband giving it the massive anti-business, goodies vs badies, "why do companies pay a dividend" nonsense.0 -
Was it Ed?Scott_P said:@PickardJE: Labour insider. "It's over...it's over."
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Labour 4.7 on Betfair in Thurrock0
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The exit may well be wrong, but it's hilarious to see the gobshites have taken cover. Distinct lack of squirrel hilarity.0
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A bit dodgy in the minutes after the exit poll but settling down now.TheScreamingEagles said:Is the site holding up for everyone?
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Agreed. Can't see anyone better than Burnham. Umunna or Reeves as shadow chancellor.Danny565 said:
Andy Burnham. UKIP look like being the big winners (in votes albeit not seats), making it vital Labour get a real humanbeing in.rcs1000 said:Who is the next Labour leader?
On balance even given the exit poll being right I'd imagine Balls will hold on, but will be to the backbenches.
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Can't be, Eck was the prize for the tacticals.Dair said:Malcolm Bruce at Gordon count "bad for Lib dems, terrible for UK" - he's admitting defeat after watching the count.
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Nah: 10% of voters are "I'm sick of the lot of them and I'd like a new type of politics."Plato said:My LD contacts said that the LDs were suffering from a lot of unformed hatred that was an incoherent mishmash of Tuition Fees/Coalition and oddly losses to Kippers as protest party fodder.
I was surprised by the latter.foxinsoxuk said:
LDs got that in 2010
UKIP in 2015
UKIP would be wise not to get into coalition with anyone :-)0 -
That is an excellent point but Sunderland is a safe Labour seat. And this is a head exploding election. Both exit polls give 2 kipper seats - which 2?AndyJS said:Farage only needs about 32% to win Thanet South and they've just got 22% in Houghton.
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So, have the haters misunderestimated Dave again?0
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That was PB Tories (myself included) getting all excited.tlg86 said:
A bit dodgy in the minutes after the exit poll but settling down now.TheScreamingEagles said:Is the site holding up for everyone?
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A bit slower, but not all that bad, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:Is the site holding up for everyone?
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Theresa May on Sky, looking like she's spent the last 4 weeks on a spa vacation.0
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is there a local opt out in election coverage? We just had a couple of minutes of commercials0
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Yes, great job by the admins and moderators. :dTheScreamingEagles said:Is the site holding up for everyone?
700 comments in 70 mins on this thread!!!0 -
Ed Balls doesn't seem to be able to calculate that 316 + 10 = 326.0
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I don't buy it, so far. Unless the country is tearing itself apart, swing-wise...AndyJS said:0 -
What are PBers least likely winning bets tonight? Mine would be Con win Great Grimsby....0
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I am sure there will be lots of these sort of things as the votes pile onto the tables, not sure this fits in the with exit poll. It does fit with earlier tweets from UKIP in Thurrock suggesting they havent won there either
"Labour source at South Thanet count reckons ukip third, with Tory/labour fighting it out for win. #GE2015"0 -
I reckon they'll get:Flightpathl said:
That is an excellent point but Sunderland is a safe Labour seat. And this is a head exploding election. Both exit polls give 2 kipper seats - which 2?AndyJS said:Farage only needs about 32% to win Thanet South and they've just got 22% in Houghton.
Clacton 100% chance
Castle Point 75%
Thurrock 65%
Thanet South 60%
Rochester 33%
We shall see what else...0 -
As far as I'm concerned he's failed to win an election. Again.Baskerville said:So, have the haters misunderestimated Dave again?
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Quite frankly on those numbers why do think the LDs will be going into coalition with the Conservatives?AndyJS said:Ed Balls doesn't seem to be able to calculate that 316 + 10 = 326.
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Which has the best coverage - BBC ITV or Sky?0
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@iainmartin1: It is with (very little) regret that the management of DUEMA (the Don't Underestimate Ed Mili Association) announce organisation to close.0