The increase in labour's vote in Sunderland - 4.8% is dead in line with all the final polls, not sure swing is relevant due to the increase in UKIP. John Curtice's explanation made some sense ie that Labour has done well in some places but gone backwards in other places and the LDs simply wont win many seats on 8%. I suspect if there is so much local variation not only will we see some very odd results but the exit poll itself is a lot of guesswork.
I remember when Tony got his landslide Sunderland gave Labour 30,000+ votes.
Ed seem's to have barely improved on what Brown did...
Again, caveating like mad here, but if the result is as the exit poll says, I think they should erect the EdStone outside the Sheffield Arena as a monument to Labour failure..
Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?
Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.
I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.
But Balls is the one of a very very few Labour front benchers who really do know what they are talking about when it comes to economics / business. He has just had to go along with a lot of the anti-business nonsense that Ed has been spouting, while he and Chukka have been running around telling businessmen no no it won't be like that.
No, Labour needs to start again. Best for all if the old guard goes.
Agree with that.
If the exit poll is right, then Labour are in a far worse position than after the 2005 election. It will take a candidate with real skill and boldness to put the party back together.
Very sad personally for Ed Miliband, who will have risked a lot in family harmony for his chance to be leader. I feel sorry for him.
But, unhappily, I always thought he was a crap leader.
Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?
Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.
I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.
But Balls is the one of a very very few Labour front benchers who really do know what they are talking about when it comes to economics / business. He has just had to go along with a lot of the anti-business nonsense that Ed has been spouting, while he and Chukka have been running around telling businessmen no no it won't be like that.
Balls and Umunna are realistic and have some vision and original rhetoric the rest of the Labour front-bench mediocre at best, most boring automatons, or even worse Union funded stooges. For the good of the country they need a serious rethink, even if the final result is nearer the yougov they need a revamp.
There is an issue here between predictions and polls assuming some some of uniform behaviour and the exit poll based on statistical analysis of changing data only one method can be right in this case.......
One lefty will be happy with this result...Russell Brand...another 5 years of material for him to flog to the twitter masses.
Oh F##k off Campbell...SO says Labour need a clear out, they need to get rid of Campebell, just get him away from all media. He immediately has me feeling anti-Labour feelings, when I have a lot of time for many Labour MPs, he just instantly makes me angry.
Judging by the Sunderland result compared to the projection, it seems the exit poll slightly overstated both Tories and Labour, and understated UKIP.
Yes but only slightly according to the pollster. I was in the Royal Blenheim when the exit came out on the TV and choked on my pint of bitter. I do not believe it. But if it is half right it would be amazing. As for Sunderland - each Sunderland seat is different. What is driving the kipper vote? Is it anti Labour?? The pollster says that Yorkshire is v bad for Labour.
Well have to wait till Nuneaton, I doubt too that the only place with a heavy Labour swing is the NE of England. Curtice might be a prophet if his prediction that his exit poll will be rubbish turns correct.
I feel rather sorry for UKIP. They're going to have c. 12%, and fewer than 5 seats.
To be fair to FPTP it encourages parties to show they're up to it in local government first. I voted Ukip in Woking today. I know they won't win, but at least it helps the share of the vote and may encourage others to vote Ukip in the future.
My LD contacts said that the LDs were suffering from a lot of unformed hatred that was an incoherent mishmash of Tuition Fees/Coalition and oddly losses to Kippers as protest party fodder.
I meant relative to what was being said on BBC where they said they expected a 9% increase in the Labour vote from their exit poll data. It was actually 5%.
The NE of England used to be extremely Labour - before the Lib Dems came in. It looks as if the lib dems have gone back to labour in droves. The total votes cast is only 500 more than 2010.
Unfortunately for Labour an additional 2000 votes in Houghton means SFA.
I gather the exit poll forecast 5% Cons to Labour and it came in at 4%.
So far we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the poll is accurate.
Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?
Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.
I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.
But Balls is the one of a very very few Labour front benchers who really do know what they are talking about when it comes to economics / business. He has just had to go along with a lot of the anti-business nonsense that Ed has been spouting, while he and Chukka have been running around telling businessmen no no it won't be like that.
Balls and Umunna are realistic and have some vision and original rhetoric the rest of the Labour front-bench mediocre at best, most boring automatons, or even worse Union funded stooges. For the good of the country they need a serious rethink, even if the final result is nearer the yougov they need a revamp.
I let you into a little secret...I met Umunna fairly recently and he came across well. Certainly a bit slippery, but he did actually have an idea what he was talking about.
Then I come home and hear Ed Miliband giving it the massive anti-business, goodies vs badies, "why do companies pay a dividend" nonsense.
My LD contacts said that the LDs were suffering from a lot of unformed hatred that was an incoherent mishmash of Tuition Fees/Coalition and oddly losses to Kippers as protest party fodder.
I meant relative to what was being said on BBC where they said they expected a 9% increase in the Labour vote from their exit poll data. It was actually 5%.
I don't buy it, so far. Unless the country is tearing itself apart, swing-wise...
I am sure there will be lots of these sort of things as the votes pile onto the tables, not sure this fits in the with exit poll. It does fit with earlier tweets from UKIP in Thurrock suggesting they havent won there either
"Labour source at South Thanet count reckons ukip third, with Tory/labour fighting it out for win. #GE2015"
@iainmartin1: It is with (very little) regret that the management of DUEMA (the Don't Underestimate Ed Mili Association) announce organisation to close.
Comments
Hmm...
I have it on moderately good authority that Milibean only did the Russell Brand interview because their postal vote numbers where shiteous
Rumours, but makes sense...
Twitter is excellent
If the exit poll is right, then Labour are in a far worse position than after the 2005 election. It will take a candidate with real skill and boldness to put the party back together.
Very sad personally for Ed Miliband, who will have risked a lot in family harmony for his chance to be leader. I feel sorry for him.
But, unhappily, I always thought he was a crap leader.
But, but, but EICIPM !!!!
Oh F##k off Campbell...SO says Labour need a clear out, they need to get rid of Campebell, just get him away from all media. He immediately has me feeling anti-Labour feelings, when I have a lot of time for many Labour MPs, he just instantly makes me angry.
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03296/election-mirror_3296144b.jpg
titter.
*But*
there are clearly a lot of very, very, very close seats
Mentalist.
I was in the Royal Blenheim when the exit came out on the TV and choked on my pint of bitter. I do not believe it. But if it is half right it would be amazing. As for Sunderland - each Sunderland seat is different. What is driving the kipper vote? Is it anti Labour?? The pollster says that Yorkshire is v bad for Labour.
Edit-might be 0530 actually.
Curtice might be a prophet if his prediction that his exit poll will be rubbish turns correct.
Con vote holding up well.
Final ELBOW update - Labour % leads, split into Phone v. Online polls. Phone = 0.5% CON lead, Online = 0.5% LAB lead!
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596435872121278464
The UKIP change is phenomenal...
I was surprised by the latter.
But I suspect UKIP 5 seats is quite a likely outcome.
I'd be a buyer here of UKIP seats...
Unfortunately for Labour an additional 2000 votes in Houghton means SFA.
I gather the exit poll forecast 5% Cons to Labour and it came in at 4%.
So far we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the poll is accurate.
Then I come home and hear Ed Miliband giving it the massive anti-business, goodies vs badies, "why do companies pay a dividend" nonsense.
2. 12% = IOU £20!!
On balance even given the exit poll being right I'd imagine Balls will hold on, but will be to the backbenches.
LDs got that in 2010
UKIP in 2015
UKIP would be wise not to get into coalition with anyone :-)
700 comments in 70 mins on this thread!!!
"Labour source at South Thanet count reckons ukip third, with Tory/labour fighting it out for win. #GE2015"
Clacton 100% chance
Castle Point 75%
Thurrock 65%
Thanet South 60%
Rochester 33%
We shall see what else...
2. Ed Balls
3. Compouter
What a night.