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All quiet so far.....if we don't hear from him soon, we might have to start getting worried.SquareRoot said:I wonder what tim saying on twitter
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But the Sun is saying it is?Slackbladder said:Alberto Nardelli @AlbertoNardelli 2 mins2 minutes ago
YouGov is not an exit poll.
The BPC REALLY needs to get a grip and ban arsehattery by clients in misrepresenting polls as things which they aren't, right wing newspapers and self-important billionaires not excluded.
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Yougov looks exactly like Kellners final prediction. I cant get on the site now to check but it looks like a fuck up.0
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Well, that's only 80% implied probability despite a stonking exit poll lead, implying _possibly_ that said poll was on the high side of an error rangeSlackbladder said:
'only'
Having said that, since last post Cameron is down to 1.17 :-)
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You can see the flaw in what YouGov have done...
If people on their panel were lying about what they intended to do before the poll, chances are they will lie about what they did AFTER the poll.
#spanners0 -
Now shitting a brick over Huppert in Cambridge.
Don't believe this exit poll.0 -
"Nigel Farage has won and by a bigger margin than people think."0
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Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?0
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Just been chatting with a group of friends in Hamilton. Labour has got a kicking because they did not look after their voters. This was not a vote on independence. It was clear that the SNP won the ground war. At my polling station there were 2 SNP tellers and no Labour teller. Where were the Labour ground troops?
The voter turnout will be nowhere near the polls. However it is the direct switching of committed Labour voters that is killing them not the introduction of new voters.
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Nuttall says Farage has won. "Doing well in Kent and Essex".0
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Think SPIN is about right now: 306 - 252
In line with Ave it projections!!0 -
I expect postal votes to be even more favourable to the Conservatives than prior elections.
Pollsters were weighting wrong.
People really don't comprehend how extensive electoral fraud became in this country under the last government.0 -
BBC not looking good in TV terms.
It looks to be driven by tech gimmicks not getting information out.
Can't we have Jeremy Vine with his six gun shooting up the studio.0 -
Fun anecdote - one of my LD teller compatriots told me of a spoilt ballot paper that was accepted.
A voter had expertly drawn a cannabis leaf in the box and everyone agreed that this was fair.
Another voter was the wife of a returning officer who was having an affair - she wrote all about it in the little box at the same count. Hilariously awkward there.0 -
Have they released the shares underpinning that Exit poll?0
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lynton crosby all is forgiven0
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No, but this latest stunt is - potentially - seriously adding insult to injury.foxinsoxuk said:
Yougov has not covered itself in glory. But has any pollster?Ishmael_X said:If YouGov have been wasting our collective time nightly for the last 5 years, as seems probable even on their own exit poll, I hope for their sake their exit poll does no turn out to be time-wasting crap in itself.
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Exit poll predicting Labour doing well in NE of England so looking for their vote share to go up in the Sunderland seats.AndyJS said:
2010 result — Houghton & Sunderland South:
Lab 19137 (50.3%)
Con 8147 (21.4%)
LD 5292 (13.9%)
Ind 2462 (6.5%)
BNP 1961 (5.2%)
UKIP 1022 (2.7%)
Turnout: 55.3%
Candidates this time:
Con: Stewart Hay
Lab: Bridget Phillipson
LD: Jim Murray
UKIP: Richard Elvin
Greens: Alan Robinson0 -
@DPJHodges: Tories quietly confident they've won South Thanet.0
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SPIN - Mid points :
Con 306 .. Lab 252 .. LibDem 26.5 .. SNP 46.5
Very ARSE like ....
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Well done to the Tories,Well done to Cameron and Osborne.Well done to Lynton Crosby.Well done to Dan Hodges.Well done to our own JackW,Rodcrosby,Southam and others for getting it right.
Now off to the pub to drown my sorrows...0 -
Nuttall complaining about the LDs getting too many seats...
Hmm...0 -
Cheers.FrancisUrquhart said:
The Exit pollsters themselves say 20-25 seat margin of error.Casino_Royale said:What do the statisticians here think of this exit poll? What degree of MoE can we expect on seat totals?
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Dair will answer for himself, but don't forget the completely different viting system in Hoyrood allows the Greens and SSP, and the new truly independent Scottish Labour Party (which I assume Mr Murphy will now be busy founding, his chums having secured the URL some months ago) to weigh in and help achieve a pro-indy majority. And we have yet to see what happens in Westminster. It's not just the SNP who drive the voting.John_N said:
Why do you think that? There's been a big change in the pro and anti SNP vote shares between last September and now. Why is it "obviously" true that it's all going to stay static, or keep on moving in the same direction, between now and next year?Dair said:BEcause that will require an SNP vote in 2016. Obviously it will likely return a mandate for the Second Indyref.
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There's a strong case for banning polls in say the last 3 weeks before an election.0
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Hello mukesh - I take back my earlier comment - well done for fronting it out!SMukesh said:Well done to the Tories,Well done to Cameron and Osborne.Well done to Lynton Crosby.Well done to Dan Hodges.Well done to our own JackW,Rodcrosby,Southam and others for getting it right.
Now off to the pub to drown my sorrows...0 -
@JohnRentoul: Not only was there no late swing, I don't think public opinion changed much since the trade unions elected wrong candidate five years ago.0
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If Farage doesn't win South Thanet it'll be hilarious. Strangely I'm not feeling as sad I thought I'd be, and am looking forward to seeing what happens.Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: Tories quietly confident they've won South Thanet.
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Sliding off the parapet at Westminster Bridge, or being crushed for hardcore.numbertwelve said:Where is the EdStone at the moment?
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1992 didn't surprise me - this one does (assuming that the exit poll is correct). Either lots of people were misleading the pollsters,or the regional swings are very different from each other.0
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Can't remember whether it was Neil or Glynis Kinnock talking about the last hours coming into the '92 vote saying they'd noticed something similar.NickPalmer said:Intriguing choice of exit polls, both of them producing an awkward result without an obvious majority, though obviously would be better than expected for Cameron. I can confirm that there were a higher number than usual of expected Labour voters in my patch who declined to say how they were voting, which isn't usually a good sign. But I won't comment more till we see the result.
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Lefties on twitter already turning bitter....0
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Perhaps, in the end, people who planned to vote UKIP just couldn't stomach a Labour government, once they reached the polling booths.0
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Will stay up for Farage, Balls and Cable.
ICM wisdom does indeed look good, gold standard.0 -
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Balls out for the lads?0
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Could you imagine Ed and Harriet negotiating a rainbow coalition 80 seats behind the Tories and with Dougie, Jim Murphy and Ed Balls all out of parliament. That would be mega lol.saddened said:
Please God, that would be an eight out of ten, Cooper nine out of ten, Balls ten out of ten, reckless eleven out of ten.Pulpstar said:Uncle Vince must be toast on this, surely !
But if I really had to pick a result it would be Cooper and Balls signing on.
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No, they never do.Monksfield said:Have they released the shares underpinning that Exit poll?
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Where is the second Green seat ?0
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Sunderland getting ready.0
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It sounds very much like the non yougov poll is the more accurate. Extraordinary polling disaster for all the rest of them.0
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Bristol West?surbiton said:Where is the second Green seat ?
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No. Gutted. Presumably Carmichael is the survivor.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
Happy with 58?DavidL said:I just don't believe that exit poll. It is too good to be true. But there is no doubt it is massively better than I feared. I am delighted to be so wrong.
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Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.Danny565 said:Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?
I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.
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Remember, sunderland houghton was Lab 60, Con 20, UKIP 16 based on the BBC exit poll.0
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Harman "very sceptical"0
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Evening Plato - Keep the 'teller' anecdotes comming, they're hilarious.Plato said:Fun anecdote - one of my LD teller compatriots told me of a spoilt ballot paper that was accepted.
A voter had expertly drawn a cannabis leaf in the box and everyone agreed that this was fair.
Another voter was the wife of a returning officer who was having an affair - she wrote all about it in the little box at the same count. Hilariously awkward there.
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Of course they are. If this result was the reverse, PB righties would be bitter tooSlackbladder said:Lefties on twitter already turning bitter....
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SPIN now have SNP at 53-560
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That's not borne out by the individual seat projections the BBC put up before either, though. It projected 18% for UKIP in N Warks for example.Sean_F said:Perhaps, in the end, people who planned to vote UKIP just couldn't stomach a Labour government, once they reached the polling booths.
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SO. It looks like you might have hit lucky!!0
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Any reason?TheScreamingEagles said:
No, they never do.Monksfield said:Have they released the shares underpinning that Exit poll?
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It's a Labourite according to Exit Poll.DavidL said:
No. Gutted. Presumably Carmichael is the survivor.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
Happy with 58?DavidL said:I just don't believe that exit poll. It is too good to be true. But there is no doubt it is massively better than I feared. I am delighted to be so wrong.
I might chuckle if it is Anne McLaughlin not that I dislike her but that she is such an inveterate loser.0 -
Norwich South. Has to be.FrancisUrquhart said:
Bristol West?surbiton said:Where is the second Green seat ?
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ITV released their shares in 1992 at 10pm. Con 41%, Lab 37%. Out by 2%.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, they never do.Monksfield said:Have they released the shares underpinning that Exit poll?
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If this is correct then WOW
The pollsters will really need to go back to the drawing board after this.0 -
And just for comparison, the final ELBOW for Online polls, a LAB lead of 0.45%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5964308639209963520 -
Very poor prediction by JackW. How could he be so far out?0
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No. It's because the pollsters' methodology is awful and outdated. There's no wriggle room. Look it's so simple:ukelect said:1992 didn't surprise me - this one does (assuming that the exit poll is correct). Either lots of people were misleading the pollsters,or the regional swings are very different from each other.
online panels self-select and are totally unrepresentative and
very few people use a landline0 -
LDs - to get around 8% overall0
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Prof. Curtice doens't look too shell-shocked, despite being held under armed guard for the last 12 hours 0
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The Guardian headline should be "the day the polls turned."
:-)
If the exit poll is wildly wrong then a lot of us will have egg on our faces . :-)0 -
Don't understand why cameras are at Dundee count, unless Hosie has 101% of the vote.0
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Laurie Penny, Owen Jones, Russel Brand, 'hopefully' your boys are going to take one hell of a beating!!0
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But Balls is the one of a very very few Labour front benchers who really do know what they are talking about when it comes to economics / business. He has just had to go along with a lot of the anti-business nonsense that Ed has been spouting, while he and Chukka have been running around telling businessmen no no it won't be like that.SouthamObserver said:
Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.Danny565 said:Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?
I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.0 -
Didn't someone point out earlier that 9/10ths of every poll this parliament has overstated Labour?0
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John Curtice doing brilliant nutty professor act.0
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So if Cameron is back in looks like boundary changes will boost the conservatives next time.0
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BTW, LibDems on 9.0% in ELBOW, highest since it started in August.0
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LDs defending against Conservative challengers "seem to be doing better". Presumably lots of of predicted 500 vote losses.0
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Could be a night when Labour and Lib Dems both lose their chancellors
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They say it's not a VI poll, but an extrapolation event.Stereotomy said:
Any reason?TheScreamingEagles said:
No, they never do.Monksfield said:Have they released the shares underpinning that Exit poll?
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Though I don't mind Ed not being PM I'd be very disappointed if NickP and Ian Murray don't win.0
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On these figures, I hope the Queen is ready to be activated fairly sharpish...0
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BBC Banner - "Ashdown: If exit poll right I'll eat my hat"0
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WHOOP!!!!!Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: Tories quietly confident they've won South Thanet.
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Curtice: So the Tories have soft-balled the Libs in LD/Con marginals. Wonder if that means Clegg safe?0
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If you just ask people how they voted as they come out of the polling booth, you don't collect the data to balance the sample. They rely on sampling in key, mostly marginal, constituencies. So just as a normal VI poll doesn't give seats to any degree of accuracy, an exit poll can't do percentage VI to any degree of accuracy.Stereotomy said:
Any reason?TheScreamingEagles said:
No, they never do.Monksfield said:Have they released the shares underpinning that Exit poll?
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I thought Labour would do well in London and the North West. Yet they're saying they've done well in the North East.0
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Icing on the cake if trueSlackbladder said:Laura Pitel @laurapitel 5 mins5 minutes ago
Ukip source says party organisers in Ed Balls's seat (Morley and Outwood) are convinced the Tories are going to take it.
oh please please please please......0 -
@janemerrick23: People who might be considering resigning tonight: Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband, Nigel Farage, every polling chief, Sunderland counting people0
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I'm shocked but this is truly a fantastic result for the country. A disastrous result for Ed Miliband and the polling companies. This is gonna be a helluva a night as the results come in. I'm definitely going to stay up all night drinking this in.
Well done everyone who got out the blue vote today!0 -
Curtice seems to be full of contradictions.
If labour are taking most LD seats why arethey on 239. And where do Tory gains come from?0 -
Sarissa Rubbish Yougov had No ahead in a rerun indy ref poll at the weekend, it is just all the Yes voters are now voting SNP0
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Labour 100% record so far.
If this continues, exit poll will look very wrong :-)0 -
Well just got to ride the wave of it now... no time for cautionJosiasJessop said:The Guardian headline should be "the day the polls turned."
:-)
If the exit poll is wildly wrong then a lot of us will have egg on our faces . :-)
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Tories knocked into third place in Houghton.0
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UKIP second.
Exit poll overstating Conservatives relative to UKIP.0 -
Fair play ...SMukesh said:Well done to the Tories,Well done to Cameron and Osborne.Well done to Lynton Crosby.Well done to Dan Hodges.Well done to our own JackW,Rodcrosby,Southam and others for getting it right.
Now off to the pub to drown my sorrows...0 -
sell cons0
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I would take Nuttal's comments with a large pinch of salt given that he claimed the exit poll was wildly wrong.rcs1000 said:
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