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  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TimGatt: So who will be the first Labour politician to blame Russell Brand for their apparent shocking performance? I reckon Mandelson #SunNation
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    If the figures are right, some sitting Lab MPs could lose seat to Con. As the number of Lab gains from Con is limited, at the margins there will be some movements against the average swing
  • Blueberry
    Blueberry Posts: 408
    Does anyone know how big the exit poll is/are?

    I presume it's tens of thousands?
  • OllyT
    OllyT Posts: 5,050
    As someone who voted Labour, I believe the exit poll, they are usually pretty accurate. Well done to those who continued to believe it might be 1992 all over again, looks like it is. Didn't think the polls could be that wrong again. At least I can now go to bed instead of sitting up all night and am retiring abroad in 4 months so every cloud has a silver lining and at least there will be some stability!
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Slackbladder said:

    Laura Pitel ‏@laurapitel 5 mins5 minutes ago

    Ukip source says party organisers in Ed Balls's seat (Morley and Outwood) are convinced the Tories are going to take it.

    oh please please please please......

    Well I did tip it!
  • AnneJGP
    AnneJGP Posts: 3,743
    Tonight was always going to be a bit exciting but this ... is the phrase "ups the stakes"?
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    Will the Lib Dems want to go back with the Tories after losing 49 seats last time?
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    Stereotomy said:

    Are these BBC seat numbers based on constituency polls or swing from the popular vote?

    Radio4 said it was 22,000 voter interviews in about 180 constituencies
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    awwww look at hatties face....
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    oh. Harriet looks very stiff upper-lipped.

    Typical aristo.
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    edited May 2015
    Tim_B said:

    What's the history of these beeb exit polls? Are they typically good indicators?

    If 1992 is anything to go by the Cons may do even better.

    It is run by Ipsos-Mori for BBC, ITV, Sky.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Slackbladder said:

    awwww look at hatties face....

    I almost want to change channel....
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    LOL Harman - not exactly denying it! :lol::lol::lol:
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    Hello Harriet. You look just like you've eaten a shit sandwich. HAHAHAHA!!!
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    GIN1138 said:

    Will the UK opinion polling industry still be alive at 5am?

    Well some of them are surely up the creek.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Slackbladder said:

    Laura Pitel ‏@laurapitel 5 mins5 minutes ago

    Ukip source says party organisers in Ed Balls's seat (Morley and Outwood) are convinced the Tories are going to take it.

    oh please please please please......

    Oh deep joy
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    It looks like it'll be a Con minority government then, with DUP and UKIP support. If the LDs get 10 it looks like Clegg may not even survive as an MP, let alone a leader, alone lead his party into another coalition.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    That'd make my decade.
    Slackbladder said:

    Laura Pitel ‏@laurapitel 5 mins5 minutes ago

    Ukip source says party organisers in Ed Balls's seat (Morley and Outwood) are convinced the Tories are going to take it.

    oh please please please please......

  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Super weak spinning by Hattie......!!!!!
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    Artist said:

    Will the Lib Dems want to go back with the Tories after losing 49 seats last time?

    I don't think there would be any pro-coalition LD MPs left, even Clegg would probably lose his seat on this.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    Slackbladder said:

    Laura Pitel ‏@laurapitel 5 mins5 minutes ago

    Ukip source says party organisers in Ed Balls's seat (Morley and Outwood) are convinced the Tories are going to take it.

    oh please please please please......

    He wasn't far off going last time. He certainly isn't popular in that neck of the woods.
  • dobbin
    dobbin Posts: 28
    Form an orderly Q to kiss PBs most famous bottom. Compouter can go first!
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Another damned long wait for the first results. It's a whisky for me and then a filter coffee.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Well surely the next thread on PB should be one about why the Conservatives will not gain seats at this election.
    Innocent face.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Split the difference and the Tories are still on 300-odd. Result for them.
  • Eh_ehm_a_eh
    Eh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Sturgeon and Hosie say no to 58
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    So Harman would want a coalition of the losers?

  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    EICALAF
  • welshowl
    welshowl Posts: 4,464
    Well one of these pollsters is wrong ( if not both!).

    Careers on the line?

    Cannot believe the Beeb's one frankly
  • FalseFlag
    FalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Cracking down on elctoral fraud has really delivered results.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Even if ttories slip a bit, if they can stay above 300 its a victory for Cameron
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    I'm going to faint with joy if this poll is like '92 as well as Cable and Balls out on their arses.
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    I wonder when the BBC will wake up to the DUP?! The tories' top bedfellows would be their unionist counterparts.
  • Concanvasser
    Concanvasser Posts: 190
    GOTV all day in Milton Keynes. Looks like 2 Con holds to me. Our people git out.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    MaxPB said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Laura Pitel ‏@laurapitel 5 mins5 minutes ago

    Ukip source says party organisers in Ed Balls's seat (Morley and Outwood) are convinced the Tories are going to take it.

    oh please please please please......

    Well I did tip it!
    If that was to happen then I would be absolutely ecstatic.

    Big if, though. I still cannot see it. If he didn't lose in 2010 then he won't lose it in 2015.
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    S'ok.

    Lab had an excellent campaign.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    edited May 2015
    The_Apocalypse said:

    It looks like it'll be a Con minority government then, with DUP and UKIP support. If the LDs get 10 it looks like Clegg may not even survive as an MP, let alone a leader, alone lead his party into another coalition.

    The problem with a Conservative minority is that none of the other parties agree with Tory policies apart from DUP maybe.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Has anyone noticed that the Greens are set to gain a seat in the exit poll?
    Which seat?
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    So farewell then Ed. You were crap.

    If there was any doubt about the result Harman has ended it.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    SLABs ability to wipe itself out is just amazing.

    If one ofn the Tories scrapes in they could be the opposition.
  • Saltire
    Saltire Posts: 525
    Y0kel said:

    A large slice of the variation here seems to be LD-Tory marginals.

    Very true. The SW of London and the SW of England could make or break the future of the Libdems. If they manage to hold most then they should be ok. If they end up on 10 or similar could be a much changed party in the next 6 months.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Balls losing his seat would be the Portillo moment.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    If Balls's seat really is in danger then the exit poll might be too pessimistic for the Tories.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    I was thinking she's had a death in the family.

    She looks poleaxed and uber calm in that I'm In Shock way
    Anorak said:

    Hello Harriet. You look just like you've eaten a shit sandwich. HAHAHAHA!!!

  • Eh_ehm_a_eh
    Eh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Ave_it said:

    CON gain Sunderland and Houghton?

    Ye cannit Mackem
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    edited May 2015
    Were you up for Balls?
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    hahaha Ed already at risk of if he'll have to resign. not the questions labour want
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Harriet Harman is a complete idiot. There's no way Labour can govern on these figures. Personally, I think Cameron will be seriously disappointed at those LDs figure. It pretty much (if true) ruins his plans for another coalition.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    SouthamObserver said:

    So farewell then Ed. You were crap.

    If there was any doubt about the result Harman has ended it.

    Yes, she did didn't she.
  • sarissa
    sarissa Posts: 2,190
    Alistair said:

    Dair said:

    According to the exit polls the last seat in Scotland is LABOUR not Lib Dem.

    Wowzer if true
    Tories save Murphy??? That would be cruel beyongd belief!
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Looks like LAB have lost 40 to SNP, gained about 15 from LD and net 5 from CON

    Its possible Nick is the only LAB gain in England outside London!! Probably not tho as I suspect its 10 LAB gain 5 LAB loss England - losses inc Southampton Test, Halifax and possibly Morley & Outwood! :lol:

  • Gravitation
    Gravitation Posts: 287
    Harma trotting out the same line Labour tried in 1992 when exit poll came out that a lost majority automatically means lost right to rule despite being largest party.

    (Oh, hello btw from long time lurker!)
  • Bob__Sykes
    Bob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Exit poll is a monumental screw up.

    The final moment of torture for us Tories in GE2015.
  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    Oops, posted in old thread. Spreads suspicious.....

    spin Con 302.5, Lab 253.5, LD 18
    sprx Con 303.5, Lab 252.5, LD 16
    lg Con 301.5, Lab 254.5, LD 14
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Scott_P said:

    @TimGatt: So who will be the first Labour politician to blame Russell Brand for their apparent shocking performance? I reckon Mandelson #SunNation

    No. This will be re-named as the TOMBSTONE election.
    Labour with the heaviest suicide note in history.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Bob__Sykes said:

    Exit poll is a monumental screw up.

    The final moment of torture for us Tories in GE2015.

    That would indeed be terrible :D
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    Dimblebore is shelled shocked...he just talked about a Labour victory.
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    PB's collective reaction to the exit poll.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NefM2gVo9mw
  • nigel4england
    nigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Slackbladder said:

    Super weak spinning by Hattie......!!!!!

    She was so weak she must have seen internal polling.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Conservative minority with DUP support, most obvious outcome
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Gravitation said:

    Harma trotting out the same line Labour tried in 1992 when exit poll came out that a lost majority automatically means lost right to rule despite being largest party.

    (Oh, hello btw from long time lurker!)

    Welcome :)
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800


    MichaelWhite ‏@MichaelWhite 34 secs35 seconds ago

    Harriet Harman also cautious on BBC, but her body language does not look optimistic
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Can someone clarify the YouGov poll?

    Exit?

    Sample size?

    Methodology?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    David Miliband was the better option for Labour. From the moment Ed was elected instead I feared Labour would go backwards at this election.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    I bought three bottles of cava plonk to dull the dog's breakfast I expected.

    I've just popped the first cork for entirely different reasons. If the exit poll is nonsense, I'm going to anesthetise my sunburn and enjoy the fun until it's debunked.
    Chameleon said:

    I'm going to faint with joy if this poll is like '92 as well as Cable and Balls out on their arses.

  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    What the hell was Harman wittering on about?
  • Stark_Dawning
    Stark_Dawning Posts: 10,202
    Well, if the exit is correct then it will vindicate what I've been saying since 2010 - political polling as a concept is now utterly broken backed. Respondents are using them to reinforce the perceived media narrative (Ed's played a blinder etc.) rather than express voting intention.
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    rcs1000 said:

    Conservative minority with DUP support, most obvious outcome

    Yep. They're both unionist parties: match made in heaven.

    But lets see. Tories could get over the line. Thats happened before. Or they could dip under 300.
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    Artist said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    It looks like it'll be a Con minority government then, with DUP and UKIP support. If the LDs get 10 it looks like Clegg may not even survive as an MP, let alone a leader, alone lead his party into another coalition.

    The problem with a Conservative minority is that none of the other parties agree with Tory policies apart from DUP maybe.
    On the caveat the exit poll is spot on, with 8 DUP and 2 UKIP does that not create a right-wing majority?

    There is the shocking chance an EU referendum bill could pass.
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Do we have a share? 37-29???
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    I suppose this might be the PB Tory's sheffield rally.... :D
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JonBergdahl: **FOR SALE** Granite stone. Some minor cosmetic damage. One careful owner. Best offer accepted #EdStone #GE2015 http://t.co/tDAESSOFy3
  • DaemonBarber
    DaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    MikeL said:

    Can someone clarify the YouGov poll?

    Exit?

    Sample size?

    Methodology?

    All down thread.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Artist said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    It looks like it'll be a Con minority government then, with DUP and UKIP support. If the LDs get 10 it looks like Clegg may not even survive as an MP, let alone a leader, alone lead his party into another coalition.

    The problem with a Conservative minority is that none of the other parties agree with Tory policies apart from DUP maybe.
    So 316 + 8 = 324 MPs. Just a majority when Sinn Fein don't take their seats. Personally, I don't think a Con minority govt is great for the Tories. It's something I thought was possible, but not on these figures.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    This could be the night of the PBtories......
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    £ up 2c against $
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Where are the PB Labour posters?
  • Dixie
    Dixie Posts: 1,221
    YES
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Well, if the exit is correct then it will vindicate what I've been saying since 2010 - political polling as a concept is now utterly broken backed. Respondents are using them to reinforce the perceived media narrative (Ed's played a blinder etc.) rather than express voting intention.

    Me too. I suggested both online and phone polling were deeply deeply flawed. The online VI are an utter waste of space.
  • Tony_M
    Tony_M Posts: 70
    edited May 2015
    Edit: The Sage Crosby beat me to it
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Can Labour persuade Nicola to join them? Break the British transfer record. She's got to be worth more than Gareth Bale
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    Woman in red dress has a face as if someone is ramming half a raw onion up her rectum
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    LD 2% Hendon???? LOL
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    This is massive. Little to no swing, if '92 is anything to go by then we could be Con majority. Paging IOS.
    RobD said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    Exit poll is a monumental screw up.

    The final moment of torture for us Tories in GE2015.

    That would indeed be terrible :D
    Pls no.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Split the difference in the exit polls: Tories in the high 290s
  • pinkrose
    pinkrose Posts: 189
    If the Lib Dems get 10 seats, surely they CANNOT prop up the Tories?????
  • Dixie
    Dixie Posts: 1,221
    Blimey
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Labour struggling to pick up the first target on their list?
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    jeeezz.... labour really really struggling to pick up even easy seats on those exit polls
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edited May 2015
    Emily Maitlis looks like she is going to cry.....

    If SNP do get 58 seats, how can there not be another SIndy Referendum?
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Where on earth is Labour picking up seats to offset Scotland on this BBC exit poll? Not Warwicks North, not Cardiff North. Only LD seats?
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    If the poll is accurate Balls has about a 29% chance of losing.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:

    Who did the first exit poll?

    GfK. Pukka market research.
  • Razedabode
    Razedabode Posts: 3,117
    Does match the supposed labour mood music though
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    I hope you all got on my Birmingham Northfield bet.
  • Eh_ehm_a_eh
    Eh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    SNP hopeful in Rutherglen 21k lab maj.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    any indication of turnout?
  • macisback
    macisback Posts: 382
    RodCrosby said:

    JonCisBack said:

    Morley

    and

    Outwood

    That is all

    Some Labour seats must be on the line tonight...
    Hopefully the odious Chris Williamson in Derby North will be gone, that is my no1 wish.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Hmmm labour pikcing up votes in places it doesn't matter is that it?
  • Stereotomy
    Stereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Where's Populus??????
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