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yougov considerably different, Con 284, Lab 263 (see thread header)0
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YouGov still think it is neck and neck.
Somebody is going to look like a right tw@t come when the morning comes.0 -
MikeK, about who would be laughing loudest, if this is remotely close to being correct it's me as I told you it would.0
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Fpt.
End of the Union pier show if the exit poll is right.
Also, it would blast out of the water any SLab narrative that voting SNP let the Tories in.0 -
Let's not get too triumphant... shy kippers, shy Labour in Scotland etc...0
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based on this exit poll Mr Palmer might be making a donation to LUPUS UK.. but its too early to tell.0
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Oh gods... Just looked at mine.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't dare look on my twitter timeline now!
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Well, bugger me senseless.
This is 1992 all over again.0 -
Oh fuck. Wow. That is all.0
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Are these BBC seat numbers based on constituency polls or swing from the popular vote?0
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Which 10 LD seats are left?
Farron, Laws, Lamb...?
Actually feel sorry for them. just...wow0 -
There is a lot of cigar smoke coming out from DUP headquarters right now....
Ok lets say that this does over egg the Conservative seats a bit, a still sizeable gap to Labour does make it harder to go for the legitimate right to govern for Labour.
But we will see. Whilst I can understand why the polls were wrong this does seem to the very highest end of Conservative expectations.0 -
This poll seems too good to be true...0
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So EMWNBPM?0
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I'm maxed out with every bookmaker, I have thousands of pounds riding on this. Please get an 11th seat!nigel4england said:
So do I as I followed you on it.rcs1000 said:God I hope the LDs get 11 seats.
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Wasn't there another exit poll due?0
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I said a month ago that I thought the pollsters were going to have egg on their faces, it just didn't feel right. We will soon know...0
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I don't believe this poll.
But whilst we can please think of how Owen, polly and al are feeling right now.0 -
This is even more shocking than the Lib Dem figure in the 2010 exit poll that nobody could believe.
It's taken me 10 minutes just to take it in, and think of something other than swearing about it.
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Perfect timing - As David Dimbleby opens his exit poll,the crawler along the bottom of the screen says "Captain Kidd's treasure found"0
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Whatever else, goodnight Ed. Scotland lost, LAB going backwards, what a fracking triumph.0
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I would love e to know what constituencies make up the exit pollTheScreamingEagles said:I don't believe this exit poll
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Gove - pollsters will have "SOPHISTICTED EXPLANATIONS"!!!!!!!!!!!!0
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According to the exit polls the last seat in Scotland is LABOUR not Lib Dem.0
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Absolutely ridiculous disparity between the two exit polls
Except the Kipper two...0 -
I'll take the yougov version. Surprised if it's not closer..
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Has Yougov just said 34% each ?0
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Harriet Harman has gone AWOL0
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I'd like to take this opportunity to resubmit the prediction I made yesterday on this forum:
I was predicting a Labour minority government but I've changed my mind in the last few days and think the election will result in a Conservative minority government. My reasoning is that opinion polls indicate the voters trust them more with the economy and prefer Cameron to Miliband. Another factor is that UKIP voters overwhelmingly indicate that they'd prefer to see a Conservative government and I expect many of them to vote tactically in the marginals. (They will still have the chance of voting for UKIP in the local elections.)
Seats are more difficult to predict. I think Labour will be completely wiped out in Scotland and will struggle to get beyond 260 seats.
The SNP will take all seats in Scotland save Shetland and Orkney which will go down to the wire.
The Liberal Democrats will be down to less than 20 seats and in no mood to join another coalition.
THE VALUE NOW IS ON CON MINORITY GOVERNMENT.0 -
Will Nick still win?0
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YG isn't an exit pollisam said:Absolutely ridiculous disparity between the two exit polls
Except the Kipper two...0 -
If the LD prediction is anywhere near right then this is just an unwind from the mid 90s0
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My fellow PB Tories, can I urge we have some humility.
Please don't do an IOS, at least until we've got the first 300 results in.0 -
I backed 11-30!nigel4england said:
So do I as I followed you on it.rcs1000 said:God I hope the LDs get 11 seats.
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Those two exit polls are as far apart as Natalie Bennett is from reality.0
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Arise Sir Rod.0
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The amazing thing is, even on the basis of the bombshell exit poll, Labour would still gain about 20 seats from the Tories. That shows the calamity of Scotland and, apparently, how beneficial to the Tories the LibDem collapse was.0
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...and don't get that 21st!!!rcs1000 said:
I'm maxed out with every bookmaker, I have thousands of pounds riding on this. Please get an 11th seat!nigel4england said:
So do I as I followed you on it.rcs1000 said:God I hope the LDs get 11 seats.
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Sounds like we may get a reasonably early result from Swindon, as they have received training from Sunderland/Newcastle in how to count votes (BBC)
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TUD Not at all, Cameron has made clear he would implement the Smith Commission Plans and Quebec nationalists won over 50 seats in the 1993 Canadian general election and Quebec still remains in Canada. Sturgeon has made clear she would only call a referendum in the short term if Brexit and Scotland votes In0
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2 very different exit polls so it is BBC v Yougov0
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IF 10 LDs - WHO will they be?0
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Is NP still an xMP?0
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YouGov definitely did an exit poll, because I was polled... so if this isn't it, when are they releasing it?Purseybear said:
YG isn't an exit pollisam said:Absolutely ridiculous disparity between the two exit polls
Except the Kipper two...0 -
Morley
and
Outwood
That is all0 -
Thrasher cool and certain of his case.0
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Have a thought for OGH on the spread betting.....0
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Carmichael probably one.JonCisBack said:Which 10 LD seats are left?
Farron, Laws, Lamb...?
Actually feel sorry for them. just...wow
The SNP are predicted on 58 seats, so that leaves 1.0 -
A large slice of the variation here seems to be LD-Tory marginals.0
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Yes it isPurseybear said:
YG isn't an exit pollisam said:Absolutely ridiculous disparity between the two exit polls
Except the Kipper two...0 -
Yep, must relax a little. Was very disheartened in recent days, so the exit poll was quite a shocker.TheScreamingEagles said:My fellow PB Tories, can I urge we have some humility.
Please don't do an IOS, at least we've got the first 300 results in.0 -
If the exit poll is true then Labour are in big trouble. JackW was right, Ed Miliband Will Never Be PM.
Insane.0 -
Indy ref-the Unionist grannies won it for NO
GE- The English grannies won it for Dave
Number Cruncher is plainly a genius!0 -
Gove must have been fed lots and lots of positive news and doesn't believe YouGov, because there was virtually zero caution in his opening salvo.
If he is wrong, he will go do in history as badly as the BBC exit poll.
Paddy says he will eat a hat if Lib Dem get anywhere near 10...will it be worth staying up for?0 -
Laws must be gone surely?
Danny Alex gone
Berwickshire gone
Cable gone?
Baker gone?
Kennedy gone?
I still think Lloyd has a chance - lots of voters seemed to name him today.JonCisBack said:Which 10 LD seats are left?
Farron, Laws, Lamb...?
Actually feel sorry for them. just...wow0 -
Thasher sounds very confident0
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Paddy Ashdown publicly says that he will eat his hat on the BBC if the exit poll is right.0
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What's the history of these beeb exit polls? Are they typically good indicators?0
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Can it really be EICIPM? Etonian Idol Cameron ........0
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SeanT UKIP swingback seems likely0
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Interesting night ahead0
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Surely the BBC could have told Nick Robinson to stay in bed.0
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No, it is Profs Thrasher and Curtice vs YouGov. Nowt to do with BBC.MarkSenior said:2 very different exit polls so it is BBC v Yougov
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Thrasher, "a handful of Lab gains", 1% swing in England & Wales.0
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Michael Thrasher:
1. SNP have stormed through
2. Collapse of LD's. Across the board regardless of incumbency
3. Crucial part is that in E&W Labour have not really made inroads into the Cons vote share and not destined to make many seats: just a handful. 1% swing from Con to Lab in E&W
Labour over-estimated in polls and Cons under-estimated.0 -
@rowenamason: Lord Ashdown: "If this exit poll is right, I will publicly eat my hat."
Oh, please, please, please...0 -
Mulholland,possibly Brake,HerbertPlato said:Laws must be gone surely?
Danny Alex gone
Berwickshire gone
Cable gone?
Baker gone?
Kennedy gone?
I still think Lloyd has a chance - lots of voters seemed to name him today.JonCisBack said:Which 10 LD seats are left?
Farron, Laws, Lamb...?
Actually feel sorry for them. just...wow0 -
Will the UK opinion polling industry still be alive at 5am?0
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Ok Yougov's poll is much less dramatic. That looks much more likely to be coalition mkII0
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Just too good to be true I think. SNP won't get 58, and I still think UKIP will get more than 2. Think the Greens will just have Lucas.0
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Thrasher: Lab have not done well in marginals0
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Even if Yougov is correct, those are still a lo better for the Tories than most polls indicated.0
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Some Labour seats must be on the line tonight...JonCisBack said:Morley
and
Outwood
That is all0 -
Afraid I don't believe it - but it is 20k+ people interviewed after voting!0
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"cannot rule out a tory majority" Kin ell0
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If I were John Curtice, Stephen Fisher et al I would be very nervous, they might be right but unless populus backs them up every pollster and all the parties think they are wrong. It will be a very embarrassing episode for someone0
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So which Scottish seat won't be SNP?
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I still urge a lot of caution. I get the feeling so so many seats will be on an absolute knife edge and so it could easily swing many many seats.0
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Laura Pitel @laurapitel 5 mins5 minutes ago
Ukip source says party organisers in Ed Balls's seat (Morley and Outwood) are convinced the Tories are going to take it.
oh please please please please......0 -
CON gain Sunderland and Houghton?0
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Watching BBC News, STV Player and BBC Scotland iPlayer and trying to follow this site is already giving me a headache.0
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Who did the first exit poll?0
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Paddy is getting upset. Whilst I do think the exit poll might not be spot on, it is a poll of people who have actually voted.0
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All I care about are reckless balls and cable. If they are all out it will make my year.0
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6000SeanT said:Is the YouGov exit poll the same enormous size as the Beeb's? 22,000??
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Staggering. But I can't just sit around watching idle speculation for the next five or six hours. I'm off to bed for a bit.0
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