politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your sortable & searchable PB guide to Labour’s top 80 CON

RobD said:

I don't see how the blues can end up with 300+ seats.. despite how much I may want them to.

Why aren't you on a plane?

Traitor!

Just totted up the Election portfolio... £4.3k staked... would prob settle for £4k return!

Havent backed Hornchurch and Upminster which I meant to.. if anyone can get on the 12/1 at Paddy I will take £25 for a bit of fun.. please let me know if possible... cant back all these far flung places and watch the home town go purple with no £££

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/Betfred/status/596404275967832066

He paid out on United winning the title in 1998. Titter.

BREAKING NEWS: Fred is paying out early on the Conservatives winning the most seats in the #GeneralElection!

BREAKING NEWS: Fred is paying out early on the Conservatives winning the most seats in the #GeneralElection! https://youtu.be/maEowjWRrAM

LOL!

Charles said:

RobD said:

I don't see how the blues can end up with 300+ seats.. despite how much I may want them to.

Why aren't you on a plane?

Traitor!

And miss the election results and PB? Never!

Gutwrenching. Would they really dare to do that if they didn't have some inside info?

valleyboy said:

FrankBooth said:

I see Fenster just mentioned Ystrad Mynach. That reminds what someone in work said today. That Ukip might win the Rhondda. I rather doubt it but they have potential in the Valleys and it could be symbolic given the remarkable Labour heritage in the region.

We expect UKIP to pick up a good sized protest vote, but they are not going to get anywhere near Labour in any of the valleys.

Rhondda is the hardest, most macho place in Britain. That's why Chris Bryant is the perfect fit up those parts.

I've played rugby up there numerous times. Believe me. Nails. When they feed their staff's they don't even take the food out of the tin.

Yeah, just a stunt. It's still 1.27 on betfair after all, not like there's some great certainty.

Betfred are a joke of a book anyway. He talks about "smart money" - ridiculous, any account labelled sharp gets closed asap.

EPG said:

Dair said:

Charles said:

calum said:

Just as well this is election day or the MSM would have had a field day with this:

http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/ge2015/6444611/Clot-red-handed-Labour-Jims-last-push-as-fan-pops-question-to-Nicola.html

Murphy's researchers are clearly not on their game as the red hand is a significant logo for Unionism - see link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Volunteer_Force

Although, to be fair, the Red Hand goes back much further than that: it was one of the traditional symbols of Ulster, and was used by cousin Edward for the Ulster Volunteers (the good ones)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Volunteers

"Good ones"? If The first UVF and Carson had just gone with the direction of history Ireland would be richers, less bloody and the UK would be less tarnished. A United Irelandin 1922 would have been better for everyone.

There are no "good guys".

E Carson was the man most responsible for partition and the most significant threat to the armed authority of the British state in the twentieth century, far more threatening in practice than Gerry Adams or even the leaders of the Central Powers or the Axis. Ironic because as a Dubliner he hated the idea of partition, but the only thing he hated more was the idea of Catholics in charge of Ireland.

Carson was not an anti-Catholic. He was brought up at Castle Ellen, a hot bed of liberalism and tolerance

The last thing he wanted was partition - he never thought it would happen but saw Ulster as a way to make Irish independence infeasible. And then James Craig did him over at the last minute.

I'll admit, though, that it was quite ironic that the Solicitor General and a member of the Cabinet could raise his own militia, while continuing to serve in government (and ultimately to be given a State Funeral!)

But as he wrote to my great grandmother at the time he never expected to find himself 'on the high road to treason and despair'.

Blimey, I'm feeling tense with an hour to go. Not as tense as my bank manager.

Anorak said:

fitalass said:

Its looking like a bumper GE turnout.... So much for it being a boring GE campaign that failed to engage the voters.

I think the indyref and the SNP are to blame/congratulate. Mdae politics, well, interesting to a whole swathe of people who otherwise wouldn't give a monkeys.

But what about all those "torn apart families"?

The fact that publicity shy Paddy Power haven't paid out early tells you everything (IE it is too close to call)

#DisturbingReports really is giving Ruth Davidson a kicking.

FrankBooth said:

Dair said:

Fenster said:

Dair said:

Fenster said:

Just voted in Ystrad Mynach (Caerphilly). They let my dog in the voting booth.

Word is it's been busy and a lot of young voters have been in. Which I think will be good for UKIP as the Kippers really seem to have captured the zeitgeist amongst young voters (probably misinformed, but at least they are involved); my Facebook page is full of Kipper v anti-Kipper fist-fights, among people who I've never seen involved in politics before.

It's that replicated across the country the Kippers will do well.

My vote counts for little here though. Safe Labour win.

Young voters in Wales will be backing Plaid Cymru. And remember they're much more likely to speak Welsh.

I don't think the youngsters vote Plaid. Plaid are the party of the Welsh speakers - round this area there aren't many Welsh speakers. Though Beci Newton, their local candidate, is one for the eye-candy fans.

Maybe you're in the wrong demographic. But the younger generation in Wales have the highest percentage of Welsh language speakers.

For basic level perhaps. I'm not sure about many young people speaking it fluently though. I've not seen any polls predicting a big Plaid surge. It's also incredibly stupid to think speaking Welsh equates with voting Plaid. My Grandparents and Aunt were staunch Tories and were fluent Welsh speakers. I, as a rebel, refused to learn much to my Nain's disappointment. Her favourite politician was Michael Heseltine.

I think they are up 0.1 on SPIN but might be mis-remembering it as I'm only really paying attention to the SNP.

Sky News correspondent expects 65-70% turnout.

My wife assures me the green candidate is very nice. I think she is winding me up.

Anyway she says that there was a substantial queue in the Birkhill polling station. Sad to say it but many of my neighbours are pro SNP and very few are pro Labour. It is hardly a shocker but it is looking ominous for SLAB in Dundee West.

bigjohnowls said:

Tory source tells @tnewtondunn their private polling says 302 seats, he tells @NewsUK election party.

EICIPM?

bigjohnowls said:

Tory source tells @tnewtondunn their private polling says 302 seats, he tells @NewsUK election party.

BigJohnOwls always with the breaking news.....

May I make a polite suggestion as it gets crazy on here, might be worth people having a quick scan of the thread before posting a tweet etc, so we don't get the same tweet 87 times.

Completely unsubstantiated report on twitter says Glasgow has seen some polling station at 70% by 8pm

TheScreamingEagles said:

Shadsy says Jim Murphy is now the outright favourite to hold his seat

Propped up by baby-eating Tories? The horror.

FrankBooth said:

I have to say I find it really bizarre to see all these countries that use electronic voting. As soon as the polls close you get the result. Weird. I hope it never happens here.

I know. Absolutely no excitement. Much better with the results declaring throughout the night. And boo on the councils too cheap to count on the night.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Shadsy says Jim Murphy is now the outright favourite to hold his seat

Remember that this is based mainly on Labour tellers getting a positive feeling from those they are tallying. But as we saw in the Guardian's video from Tom Clark;s seat (and saw in 2011) the parties facing the SNP surge get told lies by their former supporters.

Of course in Murphy's case he does have a big and possibly stupid pool of Tories to pull votes from. But Labour were claiming they could keep a couple of Glasgow seats earlier in the day which is not going to happen.

Betfair's Labour Most Seats has weakened back to 5.0 from 4.5 appreox one hour ago.

Ave_it said:

Ave it reminds you of his projection made on Tuesday:

CON 303
LAB 249
LD 31
SNP 43
PC 4
GRN 1
UKIP 1
DUP 10
SF 5
SDLP 2
NI IND 1

Can it happen?!

Is it a dream?!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAiKC1FEc-A

That would pretty much guarantee Coalition v2.0

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/596399847286116353

Why do the parties both with private polling on any sort of national scale? Why should such polls prove any more accurate than the large sample published polls or even as accurate as those?

so they can selectively leak the best bits from their own perspective?

MikeL said:

Con most seats tightening a fraction - 1.24.

Might there be any exit poll leakage by now - ie if exit poll was clear Lab win would we expect at least some movement on Betfair?

Not the official exit poll as the media don't get it until 9.45pm and I would presume given only 5 people get the data they won't even be hinting anything.

There are other "unofficial" exit polls though which I guess could be leaking to the like of our friend compuoter2

MikeL said:

Con most seats tightening a fraction - 1.24.

Might there be any exit poll leakage by now - ie if exit poll was clear Lab win would we expect at least some movement on Betfair?

I like to think that the five polling experts are held in a secure room under armed guard in some nuclear bunker in central London. No leaking from that

JGC said:

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/596399847286116353

Why do the parties both with private polling on any sort of national scale? Why should such polls prove any more accurate than the large sample published polls or even as accurate as those?

so they can selectively leak the best bits from their own perspective?

They probably ask the VI question first, and then detailed questions about policies.

nigel4england said:

Anorak said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/596399612811997184

What about at the same time....?



I'll get my coat..

Yes, a foursome, every man's fantasy, a chance to disappoint four women at once.

That's a fivesome.

In a foursome you just feel burning shame in front of three women. Or two women and another man. When there's only one women it ceases being a foursome and becomes a gang bang. Well, that's what my wife told me anyway.

Many moons ago when I was young and fit I did the threesome thing with my then girlfriend and her mate, never worked so hard in my life. Never again.

Presumably followed by note to self: find new girlfriend whose best mate isn't a 20 stone bloke recently out of HMP Durham.

Dair said:

Charles said:

Dair said:

Charles said:

Dair said:

Charles said:

Ghedebrav said:

I was thinking more along the lines of supporting those who wish to work with childcare, as opposed to a free-for-all handout with no broader economic benefit.

If they have to be subsidised in order to make work pay for them, then there is an argument that the country would be better off with them not working or doing a different job

That was Thatcher's argument against the Nationalised Industries. I guess when it's Tory backers getting the money and sharing it with their Tory friends this stops being a problem.

At least voting SNP, you know your representative (probably) can't be bought. You cannot say that about Labour or the Tories or the Liberals or the Kippers. LibLabConKip will do what it takes to keep their snouts in the trough.

I don't support money being given to Tory backers or corruption.

Do you vote Tory? If you do, you support it. It is the Tories raison d'etre.

I do wonder, however, if it might fall foul of Illegal State Support at some point and be deemed illegal by the EU.

I do vote Tory. And, no, it's not the Tories' raison d'etre.

Reform that ye may preserve is the motto that underpins true Conservatism.

Even if Macaulay was a Whig

Yes I understand that. But it doesn't work that way and has not for quite a considerable time. The Tory party today are as true to their roots as the Labour party is.

You are muddling up the Thatcherites, who really are Liberals.

The Tories roots are the Hartington Whigs and Peelites and they remain as strong as ever. The Tory Reform Committee, for example, (which led to the Tory Reform Group what TSE was talking about the other day) is one of their tendrils

Labour posters appear to be a bit less prominent on here than a few hours ago?!

rcs - how so? Could Clegg get another deal through his party? And what exactly would the Tories offer a Lib Dem rump that had lost half it's MPs and votes?

JGC said:

RobD said:

MikeL said:

Con most seats tightening a fraction - 1.24.

Might there be any exit poll leakage by now - ie if exit poll was clear Lab win would we expect at least some movement on Betfair?

I like to think that the five polling experts are held in a secure room under armed guard in some nuclear bunker in central London. No leaking from that

Thats true but see OGHs story from last time when he was part of broadcast team, they were told (& sworn to secrecy @ 21:15). There is a lot of money ar stake all it takes is the proverbial tea boy or girl to spot the numbers and tip the wink......

I linked to an article down thread that stated this time they will only get the last data at 21:15, only 5 people will known and wont be telling any media until 21:45.

We obviously have to believe this is the truth.

I would suggest the virtual silence, other than Loud Howard i.e. TND, nobody does really have a good idea what the state of play is / it is too close to call.

Plato said:

Just back from telling and I'm sun and wind burnt - what a day weather wise down here in Eastbourne. My ward polling station had a steady stream all day - 80% didn't know there were also three local council seats up for grabs out of about 600 voters I talked with.

I didn't know until the other day - very poor campaigning on this one and I'm really surprised. Right after 10hrs of this I don't think I'll get the power of speech back again until next week!

Well done! 10 hours in one place? That deserve a medal! Think I've clocked up about 5.5 hours today; my tan will be better than Ed's foundation by tomorrow!

Wishing I had taken a tactical nap now - but just want to pop back to local polling statute on at 10 to see if there is a queue....

nigel4england said:

Polruan said:

nigel4england said:

Anorak said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/596399612811997184

What about at the same time....?



I'll get my coat..

Yes, a foursome, every man's fantasy, a chance to disappoint four women at once.

That's a fivesome.

In a foursome you just feel burning shame in front of three women. Or two women and another man. When there's only one women it ceases being a foursome and becomes a gang bang. Well, that's what my wife told me anyway.

Many moons ago when I was young and fit I did the threesome thing with my then girlfriend and her mate, never worked so hard in my life. Never again.

Presumably followed by note to self: find new girlfriend whose best mate isn't a 20 stone bloke recently out of HMP Durham.

Girlfriend had to go, not the most virtuous of girls.

You say that like it's a bad thing

numbertwelve said:

FrankBooth said:

I have to say I find it really bizarre to see all these countries that use electronic voting. As soon as the polls close you get the result. Weird. I hope it never happens here.

I am still amazed though that you can still just saunter into a polling station in this country, give your name and address, and make a vote. im surprised we haven't introduced voter ID requirements.

Seems totally bonkers to me. People have given reasons why it isn't fair, suppresses people ability to vote...but you can't open a bank account without id, can't get on a plane without id, basically you can't do diddly without ID these days...well other than vote.

Ave_it said:

Website appears to be holding up better than in 2010!

Viva mike/rcs!

Although last time we had an IRRRRRC unmoderated channel in which there was unlimited swearing!

Of course we don't like that sort of thing now!

Were there hordes of burley commentators?



*banned*

TheScreamingEagles said:

Someone said earlier, I could tweet a made up exit poll figure around this time, and most of the world would believe it.

So I'm going for Con 495, SNP 59, Irish 18, PC 3, UKIP 2, Others 3, Speaker 1, Lab 69

Poor Lib Dems. Better cancel the taxi.

numbertwelve said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Someone said earlier, I could tweet a made up exit poll figure around this time, and most of the world would believe it.

So I'm going for Con 495, SNP 59, Irish 18, PC 3, UKIP 2, Others 3, Speaker 1, Lab 69

Poor Lib Dems. Better cancel the taxi.

Oops I meant

Con 460, LDs 35, SNP 59, Irish 18, PC 3, UKIP 2, Others 3, Speaker 1, Lab 69

FrancisUrquhart said:

numbertwelve said:

FrankBooth said:

I have to say I find it really bizarre to see all these countries that use electronic voting. As soon as the polls close you get the result. Weird. I hope it never happens here.

I am still amazed though that you can still just saunter into a polling station in this country, give your name and address, and make a vote. im surprised we haven't introduced voter ID requirements.

Seems totally bonkers to me. People have given reasons why it isn't fair, suppresses people ability to vote...but you can't open a bank account without id, can't get on a plane without id, basically you can't do diddly without ID these days...well other than vote.

Seems quaint doesn't it?
Faintly ridiculous and totally British.

Long may it continue.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Someone said earlier, I could tweet a made up exit poll figure around this time, and most of the world would believe it.

So I'm going for Con 495, SNP 59, Irish 18, PC 3, UKIP 2, Others 3, Speaker 1, Lab 69

I think you're a bit low on the Speaker's seats.

MarkHopkins said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Someone said earlier, I could tweet a made up exit poll figure around this time, and most of the world would believe it.

So I'm going for Con 495, SNP 59, Irish 18, PC 3, UKIP 2, Others 3, Speaker 1, Lab 69

I think you're a bit low on the Speaker's seats.

definite slight movement on the best seats market, it might simply be random or triggered by the tory private poll story but there must also be increasing numbers of folk in the know with the real exit poll

What was the final poll average? It was quite remarkable to see the convergence in the polls over the last day or two? Could they all really be collectively wrong?