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Although, to be fair, the Red Hand goes back much further than that: it was one of the traditional symbols of Ulster, and was used by cousin Edward for the Ulster Volunteers (the good ones)calum said:Just as well this is election day or the MSM would have had a field day with this:
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/ge2015/6444611/Clot-red-handed-Labour-Jims-last-push-as-fan-pops-question-to-Nicola.html
Murphy's researchers are clearly not on their game as the red hand is a significant logo for Unionism - see link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Volunteer_Force
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Volunteers0 -
You do have weight of existing bets on markets that have been running for many months.surbiton said:
Serious subject for a PhD thesis: Why are betting markets so slow in reacting ?
Having said that, this isn't new - the position of the spreads has been really consistent. Looking at lg's history, they've had Con in the 280 to 292 range all year (peaks above 290 mid-March, and this last week).
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What bolloxsurbiton said:
Stop moaning. You lost in 2012 with the Budget. The 5% cut to top earners showed only one thing. For all their talk, money is always found for the mega rich who needs the least. They have never recovered since then.OblitusSumMe said:
I actually think that if the Coalition had refrained from giving away any sweeties - no increase in the personal allowance, no cuts in Corporation Tax, Fuel Duty, etc - and just repeated the mantra that there was no money left, we had to stop adding to the debt pile and start paying it back, that they would be more popular now than they are.Cyclefree said:
The savings need to be used to pay off the deficit. Just moving the money into another spending bucket does not help.Ghedebrav said:Re. Child benefit. My wife and I were talking about this the other day. We're middle-income working parents; the extra dough is welcome, especially with little one being preschool, but realistically we'd get by without it. Better would be to scrap it above a certain (low-ish) household income and use some of the savings to help subsidise childcare up to school age.
Once we as a nation have started earning more than we spend then we can start thinking about what our spending priorities should be. One of those priorities will be to pay down (or start the process) of paying off debt. Because that debt incurs interest and money spent on paying interest is money which cannot be spent on other "nicer" things.
The Tories should have been hammering this point home for the last 5 years instead of going on a spending spree promise in the last few weeks. Whatever the result they risk trashing their USP and disappointing their voters.
It was when they started favouring one group over another that they undermined their own message. If there is money enough for a cut in fuel duty, or whatever, then you can't blame the voter for thinking that there is money enough for whatever else that voter wants.
The top rate was 40% from 1997 until about 3 weeks before the 2010 election! It's now 45%, which is higher in case you are too thick to work it out.
HIgh rate taxpayers now don't get child tax credits, have not had their tax thresholds uprated with inflation, and if you earn a little bit more, you lose all your child benefit as well.
My pay slip tells me that my effective tax rate is 44.7% (gross vs net)
The tories have squeezed fairly hard but the economy is doing well, so I have a chance to as well if I work hard, so they got my vote.
But be warned, I am left with nothing from the state, so there's nothing left to cut from me. So what will Ed do?0 -
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Harry Cole @MrHarryCole ·
Tory source tells @tnewtondunn their private polling says 302 seats, he tells @NewsUK election party
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The only reason I'm skeptical is that a lot was said about queues etc in 2010 and whilst turnout was up on the previous election, it wasn't a huge leap. Though I may also be influenced by the fact my polling station was very quiet today when I was there.JonCisBack said:Local rag tweeting that 100 people are now queuing at my polling station! I went for a run earlier and all polling stations were really busy.
Are we heading for large turnout? Several anecdotes below as well..?
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If SPIN is correct, Labour could be winning 10 seats in Scotland.0
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I don't support money being given to Tory backers or corruption.Dair said:
That was Thatcher's argument against the Nationalised Industries. I guess when it's Tory backers getting the money and sharing it with their Tory friends this stops being a problem.Charles said:
If they have to be subsidised in order to make work pay for them, then there is an argument that the country would be better off with them not working or doing a different jobGhedebrav said:
I was thinking more along the lines of supporting those who wish to work with childcare, as opposed to a free-for-all handout with no broader economic benefit.
At least voting SNP, you know your representative (probably) can't be bought. You cannot say that about Labour or the Tories or the Liberals or the Kippers. LibLabConKip will do what it takes to keep their snouts in the trough.0 -
Young voters in Wales will be backing Plaid Cymru. And remember they're much more likely to speak Welsh.Fenster said:Just voted in Ystrad Mynach (Caerphilly). They let my dog in the voting booth.
Word is it's been busy and a lot of young voters have been in. Which I think will be good for UKIP as the Kippers really seem to have captured the zeitgeist amongst young voters (probably misinformed, but at least they are involved); my Facebook page is full of Kipper v anti-Kipper fist-fights, among people who I've never seen involved in politics before.
It's that replicated across the country the Kippers will do well.
My vote counts for little here though. Safe Labour win.0 -
What about Oona Chaplin?!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Well, I'm off to get ready for a count, then to work straight after in the AM - I have PB bets for UKIP to have 5 seats or less (I think I'm safe there) and Tories less than 300 seats (ditto), but if I am wrong about Lab being most seats or Ed being the next PM, extended absence will be due to tiredness, not embarrassment at my own ineptitude.
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We're allllllllrrriiiiiigggghhhttttTheScreamingEagles said:
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Yes, a foursome, every man's fantasy, a chance to disappoint four women at once.RobD said:0 -
Would be moment of the night although I am also hearing things are looking bleak for Helen Grant in Maidstone and the LDs are very confident in WatfordChameleon said:
Seeing how hard Con are pressing Twickers I think that Cable is gone.heseltine said:Having seen actual turnout numbers and turnout of tory pledge in 2 SW London seats I would say one of the LD incumbents could lose by as much as 4000
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I saw an official (well I assume it was, as it was professionally sign written) UKIP transit van on the Newport/Torfaen border today. So they've got some imprint in the Valleys and thereabouts .Fenster said:Just voted in Ystrad Mynach (Caerphilly). They let my dog in the voting booth.
Word is it's been busy and a lot of young voters have been in. Which I think will be good for UKIP as the Kippers really seem to have captured the zeitgeist amongst young voters (probably misinformed, but at least they are involved); my Facebook page is full of Kipper v anti-Kipper fist-fights, among people who I've never seen involved in politics before.
It's that replicated across the country the Kippers will do well.
My vote counts for little here though. Safe Labour win.0 -
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It is an anathema to me why anyone pays attention to anything Murdoch says, or his proxies (papers)EPG said:
Absolutely. I agree, but, most of them look at Murdoch and see incarnate the forces of wealth ranged against them. Which, to be fair, is true (not to say they aren't right to be against socialism, just that the Sun is a rather powerful mouthpiece).
UKIP is a good counter-example. I tend to discount them because of the high numbers of rather strange deluded types that seem to infest them. That is not to say that they do not have a group of nasties in there.EPG said:Just as Cameron's Conservatives are not the right, Blair's Labour is not the left. So maybe the best comparison is to the anger and hate felt by Ukip supporters towards everyone from Cameron left who they felt betrayed or demeaned them, just as the left felt everyone from Blair right did the same.
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LOLTheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, a foursome, every man's fantasy, a chance to disappoint four women at once.RobD said:
What about at the same time....?TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/596399612811997184
I'll get my coat..0 -
LOL....Tykejohnno said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole ·
Tory source tells @tnewtondunn their private polling says 302 seats, he tells @NewsUK election party0 -
Good luck! Hope you'll keep in touch with what's happening elsewhere in the country.kle4 said:Well, I'm off to get ready for a count, then to work straight after in the AM - I have PB bets for UKIP to have 5 seats or less (I think I'm safe there) and Tories less than 300 seats (ditto), but if I am wrong about Lab being most seats or Ed being the next PM, extended absence will be due to tiredness, not embarrassment at my own ineptitude.
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Has to be possible. The required SNP swings in many places are so massive that even a modest recovery from SLAB will save a handful at the least, on top of the 5 or so the worst of the predictions said.surbiton said:If SPIN is correct, Labour could be winning 10 seats in Scotland.
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Who was source,Oliver letwin ;-)Tykejohnno said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole ·
Tory source tells @tnewtondunn their private polling says 302 seats, he tells @NewsUK election party0 -
This idea that the Tories will tear themselves to pieces is a bit silly. The 2005 leadership election was really maturely played out, and back then - pre the expenses scandal - there were lots of older, men-in-grey-suits types in the party.kle4 said:
Such will be the refrain as the Tories tear themselves to pieces in 1-4 days (depending on whether he goes immediately as Ed has most seats, or it takes a few days for the Lab-SNP arrangement - not deal - to be formalised as much as is necessary).midwinter said:
Right. Cos Cameron has been such a drag on the conservative vote hasn't he....MaxPB said:
Make it a proper Tory party, not this idiotic rich man's club they have created over the last few years.MikeK said:
Will you try and make it a true conservative party and not as it is now, a near duplicate of Labour? However, you'd be better off in UKIP.MaxPB said:I think I am going to do one thing if the Tories lose today, I'll join the party, hopefully I can do some good, I'm not particularly interested in being an MP, but I do think a strong Conservative party is important for the country and hopefully I could help.
History may be kinder to him and say that is unfair, but we'll hear it a lot shortly I am sure.
Don't forget the Tories had a big clear out in 2010 with lots of fresh faces and free thinkers coming in. Plus, trouble makers like Carswell and Reckless jumped ship.
I suspect the parliamentary party is far different now to what it was in the 90s.
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You are probably my favourite PB posterCyclefree said:
No. They need to stop copying others, let alone Blair. They need to think hard about Conservatism, what it means, what it should mean, decide on it and tell us. And when thinking about it, they need to remember their history and that they have been at their best when they have thought about us first and that the "us" they need to be thinking about are "the people of England, that never have spoken yet" a la GK Chesterton and remember to include NI, Wales and Scotland in England.pinkrose said:The Tory party needs a "clause four moment" against the rich, big business, media elite, hedge fund types. A policy that is counter intuitive, to make those voters who are suspicious about the Tory party and their motives, values sit up and take notice.
Cameron, Osborne et al could and can never pull such a thing off. Cameron leading the Tory party is the equivalent of a left wing firebrand Union boss leading the Labour party, it confirms all the doubts and the worst prejudices about Tories: rich, elites, out of touch, cruel, born to rule etc
(Though at this point remembering that there is more to England than London and some of the Home Counties would be good.)
Preach
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Arse.... Oh hang on....FrancisUrquhart said:
LOL....Tykejohnno said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole ·
Tory source tells @tnewtondunn their private polling says 302 seats, he tells @NewsUK election party0 -
who from the main parties would you like to see have a bloody nose tonight?0
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"Good ones"? If The first UVF and Carson had just gone with the direction of history Ireland would be richers, less bloody and the UK would be less tarnished. A United Irelandin 1922 would have been better for everyone.Charles said:
Although, to be fair, the Red Hand goes back much further than that: it was one of the traditional symbols of Ulster, and was used by cousin Edward for the Ulster Volunteers (the good ones)calum said:Just as well this is election day or the MSM would have had a field day with this:
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/ge2015/6444611/Clot-red-handed-Labour-Jims-last-push-as-fan-pops-question-to-Nicola.html
Murphy's researchers are clearly not on their game as the red hand is a significant logo for Unionism - see link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Volunteer_Force
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Volunteers
There are no "good guys".0 -
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FrancisUrquhart said:Tykejohnno said:
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole ·
Tory source tells @tnewtondunn their private polling says 302 seats, he tells @NewsUK election pa
LOL...
And that would bee wthLab winning at least 8 offs thTories in London..0 -
Be optimistic - only three.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, a foursome, every man's fantasy, a chance to disappoint four women at once.RobD said:0 -
Funnily enough I actually think Boris could surprise people if he were leader. Cameron and Osborne have never shown any interest in being anything other than a pair of corporate and media yes men. Perhaps that's how they enjoy doing politics and since New Labour got away with it, why shouldn't they? Boris may seem to be cut from the same cloth but I actually think he's rather more ambitious. It may seem a strange thing to say but neither Cameron or Osborne appear to aspire to very much. You could hardly say that of Boris.pinkrose said:The Tory party needs a "clause four moment" against the rich, big business, media elite, hedge fund types. A policy that is counter intuitive, to make those voters who are suspicious about the Tory party and their motives, values sit up and take notice.
Cameron, Osborne et al could and can never pull such a thing off. Cameron leading the Tory party is the equivalent of a left wing firebrand Union boss leading the Labour party, it confirms all the doubts and the worst prejudices about Tories: rich, elites, out of touch, cruel, born to rule etc
He could easily become a Jeb Bush though if the Tories lose. Tainted by being a member of the Eton family.0 -
Gulp...Tykejohnno said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole ·
Tory source tells @tnewtondunn their private polling says 302 seats, he tells @NewsUK election party0 -
Yes - I think you are right. I hope she does well.GeoffM said:
Random guess but it's possible surbiton is mistaking you for MrsB, ex of this parish.
I believe that she is the LD candidate in Rochester this time around.
Right.... time to retire to the telly with a coffee and watch "New Tricks" on UK Drama and then, at 10 o'clock, switch to the BBC and watch a UK Drama as old tricks unfold.
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In 2010 Tory private polling overestimated their share by 20-30 seats.0
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But surely bets already made is sunk gains or losses. The current rate should be in tune to the market.Andrew said:
You do have weight of existing bets on markets that have been running for many months.surbiton said:
Serious subject for a PhD thesis: Why are betting markets so slow in reacting ?
Having said that, this isn't new - the position of the spreads has been really consistent. Looking at lg's history, they've had Con in the 280 to 292 range all year (peaks above 290 mid-March, and this last week).0 -
Do you vote Tory? If you do, you support it. It is the Tories raison d'etre.Charles said:
I don't support money being given to Tory backers or corruption.Dair said:
That was Thatcher's argument against the Nationalised Industries. I guess when it's Tory backers getting the money and sharing it with their Tory friends this stops being a problem.Charles said:
If they have to be subsidised in order to make work pay for them, then there is an argument that the country would be better off with them not working or doing a different jobGhedebrav said:
I was thinking more along the lines of supporting those who wish to work with childcare, as opposed to a free-for-all handout with no broader economic benefit.
At least voting SNP, you know your representative (probably) can't be bought. You cannot say that about Labour or the Tories or the Liberals or the Kippers. LibLabConKip will do what it takes to keep their snouts in the trough.
I do wonder, however, if it might fall foul of Illegal State Support at some point and be deemed illegal by the EU.0 -
Save me doing a catchup, Who is slitting their wrists, and who is celebrating?
TSE appears to be "celibating" for one.0 -
Hmmm the point im making is that Camerons carried the party at times. I cant think of anyone who would have done as well never mind better. If the elections close and there is any chance of an imminent second poll they would be wise to keep him.kle4 said:
Such will be the refrain as the Tories tear themselves to pieces in 1-4 days (depending on whether he goes immediately as Ed has most seats, or it takes a few days for the Lab-SNP arrangement - not deal - to be formalised as much as is necessary).midwinter said:
Right. Cos Cameron has been such a drag on the conservative vote hasn't he....MaxPB said:
Make it a proper Tory party, not this idiotic rich man's club they have created over the last few years.MikeK said:
Will you try and make it a true conservative party and not as it is now, a near duplicate of Labour? However, you'd be better off in UKIP.MaxPB said:I think I am going to do one thing if the Tories lose today, I'll join the party, hopefully I can do some good, I'm not particularly interested in being an MP, but I do think a strong Conservative party is important for the country and hopefully I could help.
History may be kinder to him and say that is unfair, but we'll hear it a lot shortly I am sure.
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302 was JackW's SUPER ARSE.Tykejohnno said:
Who was source,Oliver letwin ;-)Tykejohnno said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole ·
Tory source tells @tnewtondunn their private polling says 302 seats, he tells @NewsUK election party0 -
Or JackW has been doing their private polling.JohnLilburne said:0 -
Any news on oxwab?heseltine said:
Would be moment of the night although I am also hearing things are looking bleak for Helen Grant in Maidstone and the LDs are very confident in WatfordChameleon said:
Seeing how hard Con are pressing Twickers I think that Cable is gone.heseltine said:Having seen actual turnout numbers and turnout of tory pledge in 2 SW London seats I would say one of the LD incumbents could lose by as much as 4000
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Maybe a discussion on whether or not TND will tweet about some opinion poll results early if they look good for the Tories. What time is Yougov tonight? :-)TheScreamingEagles said:As PB's editor for the next few hours, any suggestions for threads, I don't think there's much happening tonight.
Is it a good night to publish my thread on AV?
Edit: Oh I see that as I was writing this little bit of sarcasm TND actually did just that :-)0 -
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Thank you! Am touched.DaemonBarber said:
You are probably my favourite PB posterCyclefree said:
No. They need to stop copying others, let alone Blair. They need to think hard about Conservatism, what it means, what it should mean, decide on it and tell us. And when thinking about it, they need to remember their history and that they have been at their best when they have thought about us first and that the "us" they need to be thinking about are "the people of England, that never have spoken yet" a la GK Chesterton and remember to include NI, Wales and Scotland in England.pinkrose said:The Tory party needs a "clause four moment" against the rich, big business, media elite, hedge fund types. A policy that is counter intuitive, to make those voters who are suspicious about the Tory party and their motives, values sit up and take notice.
Cameron, Osborne et al could and can never pull such a thing off. Cameron leading the Tory party is the equivalent of a left wing firebrand Union boss leading the Labour party, it confirms all the doubts and the worst prejudices about Tories: rich, elites, out of touch, cruel, born to rule etc
(Though at this point remembering that there is more to England than London and some of the Home Counties would be good.)
Preach
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Was Conservative private polling right last time out? (on specific figures)0
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On the Lucy Powell and Newsnight tweet; there isn't a Newsnight tonight...0
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Increase your tax to 50% in the first budget and then to 55% in 2016, 60% in 2017, 70% in 2018 and 75% in 2019 - to pay off the Scots.JonCisBack said:
What bolloxsurbiton said:
Stop moaning. You lost in 2012 with the Budget. The 5% cut to top earners showed only one thing. For all their talk, money is always found for the mega rich who needs the least. They have never recovered since then.OblitusSumMe said:
I actually think that if the Coalition had refrained from giving away any sweeties - no increase in the personal allowance, no cuts in Corporation Tax, Fuel Duty, etc - and just repeated the mantra that there was no money left, we had to stop adding to the debt pile and start paying it back, that they would be more popular now than they are.Cyclefree said:
The savings need to be used to pay off the deficit. Just moving the money into another spending bucket does not help.Ghedebrav said:Re. Child benefit. My wife and I were talking about this the other day. We're middle-income working parents; the extra dough is welcome, especially with little one being preschool, but realistically we'd get by without it. Better would be to scrap it above a certain (low-ish) household income and use some of the savings to help subsidise childcare up to school age.
Once we as a nation have started earning more than we spend then we can start thinking about what our spending priorities should be. One of those priorities will be to pay down (or start the process) of paying off debt. Because that debt incurs interest and money spent on paying interest is money which cannot be spent on other "nicer" things.
The Tories should have been hammering this point home for the last 5 years instead of going on a spending spree promise in the last few weeks. Whatever the result they risk trashing their USP and disappointing their voters.
It was when they started favouring one group over another that they undermined their own message. If there is money enough for a cut in fuel duty, or whatever, then you can't blame the voter for thinking that there is money enough for whatever else that voter wants.
The top rate was 40% from 1997 until about 3 weeks before the 2010 election! It's now 45%, which is higher in case you are too thick to work it out.
HIgh rate taxpayers now don't get child tax credits, have not had their tax thresholds uprated with inflation, and if you earn a little bit more, you lose all your child benefit as well.
My pay slip tells me that my effective tax rate is 44.7% (gross vs net)
The tories have squeezed fairly hard but the economy is doing well, so I have a chance to as well if I work hard, so they got my vote.
But be warned, I am left with nothing from the state, so there's nothing left to cut from me. So what will Ed do?0 -
I'd still rather trust the national polls. Don't forget the SNP's private polling predicted they'd win the referendum.Danny565 said:
Gulp...Tykejohnno said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole ·
Tory source tells @tnewtondunn their private polling says 302 seats, he tells @NewsUK election party
Squeaky bum time though......0 -
Apologies ! Mistaken identity.Beverley_C said:
Yes - I think you are right. I hope she does well.GeoffM said:
Random guess but it's possible surbiton is mistaking you for MrsB, ex of this parish.
I believe that she is the LD candidate in Rochester this time around.
Right.... time to retire to the telly with a coffee and watch "New Tricks" on UK Drama and then, at 10 o'clock, switch to the BBC and watch a UK Drama as old tricks unfold.0 -
FWIW, Sporting have just increased their spread for the Tories by one seat to a mid-spread price of 287 seats, 18 seats ahead of Labour.0
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marke09 said:
who from the main parties would you like to see have a bloody nose tonight?
All of them.
I'll get my coat.
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This time it'll be underestimated by 20 seats.. majority nailed on.Tykejohnno said: 0 -
Hmmm - something like that would only be temporary though, and is more about keeping people in employment long term. Either way, it's a more cost effective and, yes, 'progressive' use of money than the splurge of child benefit.Charles said:
If they have to be subsidised in order to make work pay for them, then there is an argument that the country would be better off with them not working or doing a different jobGhedebrav said:
I was thinking more along the lines of supporting those who wish to work with childcare, as opposed to a free-for-all handout with no broader economic benefit.Cyclefree said:
The savings need to be used to pay off the deficit. Just moving the money into another spending bucket does not help.Ghedebrav said:Re. Child benefit. My wife and I were talking about this the other day. We're middle-income working parents; the extra dough is welcome, especially with little one being preschool, but realistically we'd get by without it. Better would be to scrap it above a certain (low-ish) household income and use some of the savings to help subsidise childcare up to school age.
Once we as a nation have started earning more than we spend then we can start thinking about what our spending priorities should be. One of those priorities will be to pay down (or start the process) of paying off debt. Because that debt incurs interest and money spent on paying interest is money which cannot be spent on other "nicer" things.
The Tories should have been hammering this point home for the last 5 years instead of going on a spending spree promise in the last few weeks. Whatever the result they risk trashing their USP and disappointing their voters.
My other big idea is to raise the state pension age to 71 for anyone under 50 (+ details). No point b*ggering about with spare-room subsidies and cutting disability benefits - it's the state pension that wants trimming.
To late to vote for me now though, kids
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A few thoughts:
1) That ICM poll must have quite a substantial shift to Labour today - I believe the Conservatives has a lead of nearly 1% yesterday and today's sample was only a third of the size of the previous day's.
2) In 1992 the opinion polls were shifting steadily towards the Conservatives during the last week, this year they've shifted towards Labour. So a 1992 type surprise would be an even worse performance for the polling companies than it was back then.
3) The village in which the Millibands were voting is a very posh place with expensive houses - I'm sure everyone will be amazed that EdM's constituency residence is not among Labour voters.
4) TSE's dad deserves a special mention for his voting record - 1983 Lab, 1997 Con, 2015 LD - such a heroic support of lost causes is what democracy is built upon.
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Ave it reminds you of his projection made on Tuesday:
CON 303
LAB 249
LD 31
SNP 43
PC 4
GRN 1
UKIP 1
DUP 10
SF 5
SDLP 2
NI IND 1
Can it happen?!
Is it a dream?!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAiKC1FEc-A
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302 Con seats sound awfully familiar ....Tykejohnno said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole ·
Tory source tells @tnewtondunn their private polling says 302 seats, he tells @NewsUK election party
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I don't see how the blues can end up with 300+ seats.. despite how much I may want them to.0
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if cameron comes first in seats he needs to be quick off the mark in making a generous offer to all the partys, PR, FFA for Scotland, House of Lords reform, EV4EL, because if he doesn't Ed surely will http://t.co/282bOWot8w0
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That's a fivesome.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, a foursome, every man's fantasy, a chance to disappoint four women at once.RobD said:
In a foursome you just feel burning shame in front of three women. Or two women and another man. When there's only one women it ceases being a foursome and becomes a gang bang. Well, that's what my wife told me anyway.0 -
Yes,Cameron has polled more consistently popular that reD and polled as more popular than his party. Chip-on-shoulder kippers should get off the class-warfare bit and suppress their inferiority complexes - that's Labour's game.midwinter said:
Right. Cos Cameron has been such a drag on the conservative vote hasn't he....MaxPB said:
Make it a proper Tory party, not this idiotic rich man's club they have created over the last few years.MikeK said:
Will you try and make it a true conservative party and not as it is now, a near duplicate of Labour? However, you'd be better off in UKIP.MaxPB said:I think I am going to do one thing if the Tories lose today, I'll join the party, hopefully I can do some good, I'm not particularly interested in being an MP, but I do think a strong Conservative party is important for the country and hopefully I could help.
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The tweet didn't say anything about Newsnight...it said pulled from the BBC tonight.JamesM said:On the Lucy Powell and Newsnight tweet; there isn't a Newsnight tonight...
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/5963861627611381770 -
And in some northern places it could take the Tories.dyedwoolie said:
It could take Labour over the line in some places unexpected.midwinter said:
Surely ukip taking 15% is irrelevant to whether labour votes are wasted.surbiton said:
You are forgetting UKIP will be taking 10-15% votes in the South, mainly from you.Chameleon said:
Even you have to agree that the massive LD -> Lab swings in the South will cause lots more Lab wasted votes for few seats, and that for every 1% of new wasted votes for Lab gives the Tories a 1% advantage where it matters - and visa versa.surbiton said:
Wishful thinking ends in exactly 2hours:08 minutes !Chameleon said:
I'm confidently back on Con most seats after realising one thing that I don't think has been factored in: the Lib Dem collapse in favour of Lab in the South (excl. London). I've just been doing a map of second places (http://i.gyazo.com/be87e23c6294ce419ab334a40a90c5f3.png) and it's occurred to me that in each place where the Lib Dems are second - they could lose 20% of the vote and it to go to Labour without Labour actually gaining (m)any seats. This means that the massive swings in the south which will result in few seats going to the Tories are distorting the overall picture. Up to 4% of the nationwide vote (from Lab) could be wasted with no gains if this happens in the South.kle4 said:Judging by the way predictions and markets seem slow on the uptake I'm guessing the exit poll will show Tories narrowly most seats, which is slowly proven wrong through the night.
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....and we can relax. In that case, I can stop panicking (for now at least).DanSmith said:In 2010 Tory private polling overestimated their share by 20-30 seats.
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They should refresh their PR stunts.JackW said:
302 Con seats sound awfully familiar ....Tykejohnno said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole ·
Tory source tells @tnewtondunn their private polling says 302 seats, he tells @NewsUK election party0 -
E Carson was the man most responsible for partition and the most significant threat to the armed authority of the British state in the twentieth century, far more threatening in practice than Gerry Adams or even the leaders of the Central Powers or the Axis. Ironic because as a Dubliner he hated the idea of partition, but the only thing he hated more was the idea of Catholics in charge of Ireland.Dair said:
"Good ones"? If The first UVF and Carson had just gone with the direction of history Ireland would be richers, less bloody and the UK would be less tarnished. A United Irelandin 1922 would have been better for everyone.Charles said:
Although, to be fair, the Red Hand goes back much further than that: it was one of the traditional symbols of Ulster, and was used by cousin Edward for the Ulster Volunteers (the good ones)calum said:Just as well this is election day or the MSM would have had a field day with this:
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/ge2015/6444611/Clot-red-handed-Labour-Jims-last-push-as-fan-pops-question-to-Nicola.html
Murphy's researchers are clearly not on their game as the red hand is a significant logo for Unionism - see link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Volunteer_Force
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Volunteers
There are no "good guys".0 -
I was thinking that,they say Cameron is a admirer of PB ;-)glw said:
302 was JackW's SUPER ARSE.Tykejohnno said:
Who was source,Oliver letwin ;-)Tykejohnno said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole ·
Tory source tells @tnewtondunn their private polling says 302 seats, he tells @NewsUK election party
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FrankBooth said:
I'd still rather trust the national polls. Don't forget the SNP's private polling predicted they'd win the referendum.Danny565 said:
Gulp...Tykejohnno said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole ·
Tory source tells @tnewtondunn their private polling says 302 seats, he tells @NewsUK election party
Squeaky bum time though......
SNP's private "polling" was someone checking for mentions on Twitter, wasn't it?
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I don't think the youngsters vote Plaid. Plaid are the party of the Welsh speakers - round this area there aren't many Welsh speakers. Though Beci Newton, their local candidate, is one for the eye-candy fans.Dair said:
Young voters in Wales will be backing Plaid Cymru. And remember they're much more likely to speak Welsh.Fenster said:Just voted in Ystrad Mynach (Caerphilly). They let my dog in the voting booth.
Word is it's been busy and a lot of young voters have been in. Which I think will be good for UKIP as the Kippers really seem to have captured the zeitgeist amongst young voters (probably misinformed, but at least they are involved); my Facebook page is full of Kipper v anti-Kipper fist-fights, among people who I've never seen involved in politics before.
It's that replicated across the country the Kippers will do well.
My vote counts for little here though. Safe Labour win.
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I have zero trust CCHQ know their arsehole from their ear hole. Private polling showing 302 seats?? Lolz.DanSmith said:In 2010 Tory private polling overestimated their share by 20-30 seats.
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Wife wants me to go on come dine with me. Thinks I could win..
I said, what about masterchef' ... She laughed.0 -
one hour until the most ancient and learn'd Dimbleby graces our screens0
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The Tories would be bonkers to elect Boris. Even though he is popular, he hasn't caused London to meltdown (as predicted by the Guardian TWICE), he is just totally the wrong bloke at the wrong time and also the press haven't even started digging into him..FrankBooth said:
Funnily enough I actually think Boris could surprise people if he were leader. Cameron and Osborne have never shown any interest in being anything other than a pair of corporate and media yes men. Perhaps that's how they enjoy doing politics and since New Labour got away with it, why shouldn't they? Boris may seem to be cut from the same cloth but I actually think he's rather more ambitious. It may seem a strange thing to say but neither Cameron or Osborne appear to aspire to very much. You could hardly say that of Boris.pinkrose said:The Tory party needs a "clause four moment" against the rich, big business, media elite, hedge fund types. A policy that is counter intuitive, to make those voters who are suspicious about the Tory party and their motives, values sit up and take notice.
Cameron, Osborne et al could and can never pull such a thing off. Cameron leading the Tory party is the equivalent of a left wing firebrand Union boss leading the Labour party, it confirms all the doubts and the worst prejudices about Tories: rich, elites, out of touch, cruel, born to rule etc
He could easily become a Jeb Bush though if the Tories lose. Tainted by being a member of the Eton family.
That reminds me actually. People going on about Ed getting shit thrown at him from the media, Boris had some pretty disgusting smears thrown out, including the Boris is a racist one.
In contrast Red Ken got the media treatment, but it was policy / scandal, less of the colorful personal life.0 -
It was actual polling with adjustment for Shy Nats based on social media activity.MarkHopkins said:FrankBooth said:
I'd still rather trust the national polls. Don't forget the SNP's private polling predicted they'd win the referendum.Danny565 said:
Gulp...Tykejohnno said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole ·
Tory source tells @tnewtondunn their private polling says 302 seats, he tells @NewsUK election party
Squeaky bum time though......
SNP's private "polling" was someone checking for mentions on Twitter, wasn't it?0 -
Do we know if this "Tory private polling" was done by secret Canadians?0
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He may shortly have more time to spend with itTykejohnno said:
I was thinking that,they say Cameron is a admirer of PB ;-)glw said:
302 was JackW's SUPER ARSE.Tykejohnno said:
Who was source,Oliver letwin ;-)Tykejohnno said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole ·
Tory source tells @tnewtondunn their private polling says 302 seats, he tells @NewsUK election party0 -
I see Fenster just mentioned Ystrad Mynach. That reminds what someone in work said today. That Ukip might win the Rhondda. I rather doubt it but they have potential in the Valleys and it could be symbolic given the remarkable Labour heritage in the region.0
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Basically: the UKIP& SNP surge and LD collapse make it unlikely that the exit poll will be picking up everything (or even only a little bit of it) likely making it bollocks. On that not I'm off for a kip and will be back ~2:00 when we start to work out what is actually happening.weejonnie said:
And in some northern places it could take the Tories.dyedwoolie said:
It could take Labour over the line in some places unexpected.midwinter said:
Surely ukip taking 15% is irrelevant to whether labour votes are wasted.surbiton said:
You are forgetting UKIP will be taking 10-15% votes in the South, mainly from you.Chameleon said:
Even you have to agree that the massive LD -> Lab swings in the South will cause lots more Lab wasted votes for few seats, and that for every 1% of new wasted votes for Lab gives the Tories a 1% advantage where it matters - and visa versa.surbiton said:
Wishful thinking ends in exactly 2hours:08 minutes !Chameleon said:
I'm confidently back on Con most seats after realising one thing that I don't think has been factored in: the Lib Dem collapse in favour of Lab in the South (excl. London). I've just been doing a map of second places (http://i.gyazo.com/be87e23c6294ce419ab334a40a90c5f3.png) and it's occurred to me that in each place where the Lib Dems are second - they could lose 20% of the vote and it to go to Labour without Labour actually gaining (m)any seats. This means that the massive swings in the south which will result in few seats going to the Tories are distorting the overall picture. Up to 4% of the nationwide vote (from Lab) could be wasted with no gains if this happens in the South.kle4 said:Judging by the way predictions and markets seem slow on the uptake I'm guessing the exit poll will show Tories narrowly most seats, which is slowly proven wrong through the night.
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My suspicion is that all these scenarios are more enjoyable in theory than in practice.Anorak said:That's a fivesome.
In a foursome you just feel burning shame in front of three women. Or two women and another man. When there's only one women it ceases being a foursome and becomes a gang bang. Well, that's what my wife told me anyway.0 -
So you don't believe in the right of self-determination?Dair said:
"Good ones"? If The first UVF and Carson had just gone with the direction of history Ireland would be richers, less bloody and the UK would be less tarnished. A United Irelandin 1922 would have been better for everyone.Charles said:
Although, to be fair, the Red Hand goes back much further than that: it was one of the traditional symbols of Ulster, and was used by cousin Edward for the Ulster Volunteers (the good ones)calum said:Just as well this is election day or the MSM would have had a field day with this:
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/ge2015/6444611/Clot-red-handed-Labour-Jims-last-push-as-fan-pops-question-to-Nicola.html
Murphy's researchers are clearly not on their game as the red hand is a significant logo for Unionism - see link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Volunteer_Force
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Volunteers
There are no "good guys".
I must admit I'm slightly surprised!0 -
Tim Montgomerie ن @montie ·
@MrHarryCole @tnewtondunn At 10pm five years ago Tory HQ were still insisting they had a majority #PinchOfSalt
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An Ireland with a 25% Protestant population share (back then it's obviously dwindled since) would have been a very different country to an Irish Republic with 95% Catholic population. To an extent the outcome of the Irish Republic was determined by partition as much as demographics.EPG said:
E Carson was the man most responsible for partition and the most significant threat to the armed authority of the British state in the twentieth century, far more threatening in practice than Gerry Adams or even the leaders of the Central Powers or the Axis. Ironic because as a Dubliner he hated the idea of partition, but the only thing he hated more was the idea of Catholics in charge of Ireland.Dair said:
"Good ones"? If The first UVF and Carson had just gone with the direction of history Ireland would be richers, less bloody and the UK would be less tarnished. A United Irelandin 1922 would have been better for everyone.Charles said:
Although, to be fair, the Red Hand goes back much further than that: it was one of the traditional symbols of Ulster, and was used by cousin Edward for the Ulster Volunteers (the good ones)calum said:Just as well this is election day or the MSM would have had a field day with this:
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/ge2015/6444611/Clot-red-handed-Labour-Jims-last-push-as-fan-pops-question-to-Nicola.html
Murphy's researchers are clearly not on their game as the red hand is a significant logo for Unionism - see link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Volunteer_Force
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Volunteers
There are no "good guys".0 -
First election night programme begins on Sky News...0
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I do vote Tory. And, no, it's not the Tories' raison d'etre.Dair said:
Do you vote Tory? If you do, you support it. It is the Tories raison d'etre.Charles said:
I don't support money being given to Tory backers or corruption.Dair said:
That was Thatcher's argument against the Nationalised Industries. I guess when it's Tory backers getting the money and sharing it with their Tory friends this stops being a problem.Charles said:
If they have to be subsidised in order to make work pay for them, then there is an argument that the country would be better off with them not working or doing a different jobGhedebrav said:
I was thinking more along the lines of supporting those who wish to work with childcare, as opposed to a free-for-all handout with no broader economic benefit.
At least voting SNP, you know your representative (probably) can't be bought. You cannot say that about Labour or the Tories or the Liberals or the Kippers. LibLabConKip will do what it takes to keep their snouts in the trough.
I do wonder, however, if it might fall foul of Illegal State Support at some point and be deemed illegal by the EU.
Reform that ye may preserve is the motto that underpins true Conservatism.
Even if Macaulay was a Whig
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I'd be bloody terrified, frankly.rullko said:
My suspicion is that all these scenarios are more enjoyable in theory than in practice.Anorak said:That's a fivesome.
In a foursome you just feel burning shame in front of three women. Or two women and another man. When there's only one women it ceases being a foursome and becomes a gang bang. Well, that's what my wife told me anyway.0 -
I was just thinking about the possible permutations and how I would react to them in the morning. It soon became obvious that they all resolved into two categories:
* Wow, that was unexpected!
* Hmmm, this is going to be interesting.
Or possibly both at once. ;-)0 -
Maybe the prediction was spat out by the same malfunctioning computer that was suppose to be organizing the GOTV campaign for the Tories?KentRising said:
I have zero trust CCHQ know their arsehole from their ear hole. Private polling showing 302 seats?? Lolz.DanSmith said:In 2010 Tory private polling overestimated their share by 20-30 seats.
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Depends entirely on your state of mind at the time, and if you are relaxed enough.rullko said:
My suspicion is that all these scenarios are more enjoyable in theory than in practice.Anorak said:That's a fivesome.
In a foursome you just feel burning shame in front of three women. Or two women and another man. When there's only one women it ceases being a foursome and becomes a gang bang. Well, that's what my wife told me anyway.
Or so I'm told...0 -
Maybe you're in the wrong demographic. But the younger generation in Wales have the highest percentage of Welsh language speakers.Fenster said:
I don't think the youngsters vote Plaid. Plaid are the party of the Welsh speakers - round this area there aren't many Welsh speakers. Though Beci Newton, their local candidate, is one for the eye-candy fans.Dair said:
Young voters in Wales will be backing Plaid Cymru. And remember they're much more likely to speak Welsh.Fenster said:Just voted in Ystrad Mynach (Caerphilly). They let my dog in the voting booth.
Word is it's been busy and a lot of young voters have been in. Which I think will be good for UKIP as the Kippers really seem to have captured the zeitgeist amongst young voters (probably misinformed, but at least they are involved); my Facebook page is full of Kipper v anti-Kipper fist-fights, among people who I've never seen involved in politics before.
It's that replicated across the country the Kippers will do well.
My vote counts for little here though. Safe Labour win.0 -
LolKentRising said:
I have zero trust CCHQ know their arsehole from their ear hole. Private polling showing 302 seats?? Lolz.DanSmith said:In 2010 Tory private polling overestimated their share by 20-30 seats.
Tory activist told by Tory journo that a Tory "source" told him about Tory "polling" showing the Tories doing well.
All sounds a bit.... Romneyish...0 -
I don't believe the internal polling, but I also can't take Tim Montgomerie seriouslyTykejohnno said:Tim Montgomerie ن @montie ·
@MrHarryCole @tnewtondunn At 10pm five years ago Tory HQ were still insisting they had a majority #PinchOfSalt0 -
We expect UKIP to pick up a good sized protest vote, but they are not going to get anywhere near Labour in any of the valleys.FrankBooth said:I see Fenster just mentioned Ystrad Mynach. That reminds what someone in work said today. That Ukip might win the Rhondda. I rather doubt it but they have potential in the Valleys and it could be symbolic given the remarkable Labour heritage in the region.
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Its looking like a bumper GE turnout.... So much for it being a boring GE campaign that failed to engage the voters.0
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Any intel on Nuneaton?0
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*** ANECDOTE ALERT ***
High levels of tactical voting in Edinburgh.
Could it be enough in West and South?0
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