politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB close the gap with Ipsos and get within 1% with Ashcrof

murali_s said:

Baskerville said:

Apropos of turnout... a few hours telling this morning in middle class area of Tooting saw turnout up about 15% on last election... Mansion Tax working for you, Sadiq?
N.B. This is only one PS in one ward of Tooting, but we only have to overturn a 2500 majority and if enough 2010 LDs hold their noses and vote against the "Three-bed London Semi Tax for Scottish Nurses", then he's toast.
Fun this, huh?
FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.

Where in London is a bog standard 3-bed semi £2 million?

Sadiq, who's a very popular local MP, will comfortably increase his majority.

Some of the nonsense spouted out by right-wing nut-jobs on here beggars belief!

rottenborough said:

Prodicus said:

Baskerville said:

FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.

'Oh, Toto, we're not alone after all!' *weeps with relief*

(Nervous, moi?)

To offer some balance :-) My predictions:

Tory 269
Lab 280
Lib Dem 26
UKIP 3

AndreaParma_82 said:

Mandelson doorstepping in Ilford North
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEZijkpWEAA628c.jpg:large

dyingswan said:

This is my 13th general election. I worked for Labour in1970 and called the result wrong on the night until Guildford was declared and then I realised I had deluded myself out of bias. Many people on here will do that today. I called it for Major in 1992. Today I have a gut feeling that Labour will win. There will be buyers regret very quickly and tremendous anger when Labour raid pension funds to fill the hole they will create in public finances. Still that is democracy I suppose. Even when I campaigned for Labour I was under no illusion that they were hopeless about balancing the books

Prodicus said:

Hard at work inside our @Ladbrokes #GE2015 hub this afternoon ... pic.twitter.com/kd8sxTiK3s

— Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) May 7, 2015

dyedwoolie said:

Prodicus said:

Attn YG fans.

Some info on the exit poll tonight. And Peter Kellner says YouGov will be releasing its own 10pm kinda-exit-poll. pic.twitter.com/35K4TvylZd

— joshi herrmann (@joshi) May 7, 2015

Apols if we knew this.

HHemmelig said:

I have noticed that JackW has recently stopped writing "Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister" in his posts. I presume it's because he now secretly accepts Ed has a very good chance of reaching no.10 and is trying to gradually backtrack without looking too stupid. I think it's very likely ARSE will be way off this time and given the arrogant certainty of his posts Mr W will hardly be able to complain about the ridicule he may well attract tomorrow.

Stereotomy said:

dyedwoolie said:

Prodicus said:

Attn YG fans.

Some info on the exit poll tonight. And Peter Kellner says YouGov will be releasing its own 10pm kinda-exit-poll. pic.twitter.com/35K4TvylZd

— joshi herrmann (@joshi) May 7, 2015

Apols if we knew this.

Early figures must tie in with Kellners thoughts! Lol
Or not

Not only are @darlingtonbc refusing to re-run the ballot, they have not even issued an apology. Disgraceful. #ElectoralFraud

— Alexandra Swann (@AlexandralSwann) May 7, 2015

dyedwoolie said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

*ICM update*

*ICM update*

*ICM update*

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_final_poll_FINAL.pdf

Lab lead 35 to Con 34!

Lab 35 (+3)
Con 34 (-1)
UKIP 11(-2)
LD 9 (nc)
Grn 4 (-1)

We've seen all the polls Sunil.

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Fenster said:

Are you confident Richard?

I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.

Doesn't look likely now.

I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.

If Cameron is 3-4% ahead on votes he will be well ahead on seats (20-30?), in that situation I'd say he is highly likely to be PM: the Legitimacy Question.

However, as may be clear - ! - I doubt the Tories will even be 2% ahead (at most) and Labour will probably have the edge in seats.

One of us is going to be wrong. Your prediction is interesting to me, as you were so accurate on the indyref. But I remain despondent about Dave's chances.

And now I am going to go and see my girlfriend the policewoman, who is guarding the Polling Station at Primrose hill! I may bribe her to bar a few shifty, unsavoury, dishevelled local types from entering- playwrights, actors, musicians, Labour bigwigs, etc.

If Labour are only 20 seats behind then EICIPM:

Lab - 266
Con - 286
LD - 25
SNP - 50
Oth - 5
NI - 18

Lab+SNP+PC+Grn+SDLP=320, which will be enough.

If Labour is 30 seats behind, that does then enter knife-edge territory and at that point legitimacy does come into play.

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Fenster said:

Are you confident Richard?

I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.

Doesn't look likely now.

I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.

If Cameron is 3-4% ahead on votes he will be well ahead on seats (20-30?), in that situation I'd say he is highly likely to be PM: the Legitimacy Question.

However, as may be clear - ! - I doubt the Tories will even be 2% ahead (at most) and Labour will probably have the edge in seats.

One of us is going to be wrong. Your prediction is interesting to me, as you were so accurate on the indyref. But I remain despondent about Dave's chances.

And now I am going to go and see my girlfriend the policewoman, who is guarding the Polling Station at Primrose hill! I may bribe her to bar a few shifty, unsavoury, dishevelled local types from entering- playwrights, actors, musicians, Labour bigwigs, etc.

If Labour are only 20 seats behind then EICIPM:

Lab - 266
Con - 286
LD - 25
SNP - 50
Oth - 5
NI - 18

Lab+SNP+PC+Grn+SDLP=320, which will be enough.

If Labour is 30 seats behind, that does then enter knife-edge territory and at that point legitimacy does come into play.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

dyedwoolie said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

*ICM update*

*ICM update*

*ICM update*

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_final_poll_FINAL.pdf

Lab lead 35 to Con 34!

Lab 35 (+3)
Con 34 (-1)
UKIP 11(-2)
LD 9 (nc)
Grn 4 (-1)

We've seen all the polls Sunil.

OK just checking

So is that it then?

Can I post my final ELBOW?

RodCrosby said:

100 years ago almost to the minute, the waters closed over the Lusitania....

Chris123 said:

RodCrosby said:

100 years ago almost to the minute, the waters closed over the Lusitania....

70 years ago, almost to the minute, the curtain drew on the Third Reich.

FalseFlag said:

murali_s said:

Baskerville said:

Apropos of turnout... a few hours telling this morning in middle class area of Tooting saw turnout up about 15% on last election... Mansion Tax working for you, Sadiq?
N.B. This is only one PS in one ward of Tooting, but we only have to overturn a 2500 majority and if enough 2010 LDs hold their noses and vote against the "Three-bed London Semi Tax for Scottish Nurses", then he's toast.
Fun this, huh?
FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.

Where in London is a bog standard 3-bed semi £2 million?

Sadiq, who's a very popular local MP, will comfortably increase his majority.

Some of the nonsense spouted out by right-wing nut-jobs on here beggars belief!

I agree, I don't think the mansion tax is a good idea (property rights, targets everyone when it should target just foreign 'investors' etc.) but the idea it would affect many people or their votes is bizarre. Out of touch by the Conservative leadership.

FalseFlag said:

murali_s said:

Baskerville said:

Apropos of turnout... a few hours telling this morning in middle class area of Tooting saw turnout up about 15% on last election... Mansion Tax working for you, Sadiq?
N.B. This is only one PS in one ward of Tooting, but we only have to overturn a 2500 majority and if enough 2010 LDs hold their noses and vote against the "Three-bed London Semi Tax for Scottish Nurses", then he's toast.
Fun this, huh?
FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.

Where in London is a bog standard 3-bed semi £2 million?

Sadiq, who's a very popular local MP, will comfortably increase his majority.

Some of the nonsense spouted out by right-wing nut-jobs on here beggars belief!

I agree, I don't think the mansion tax is a good idea (property rights, targets everyone when it should target just foreign 'investors' etc.) but the idea it would affect many people or their votes is bizarre. Out of touch by the Conservative leadership.

dyedwoolie said:

Over halfway through polling guys and gals.....

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Chris123 said:

RodCrosby said:

100 years ago almost to the minute, the waters closed over the Lusitania....

70 years ago, almost to the minute, the curtain drew on the Third Reich.

VE Day = Victory over Ed day?

or

VE Day = Victory over Etonians Day?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Chris123 said:

RodCrosby said:

100 years ago almost to the minute, the waters closed over the Lusitania....

70 years ago, almost to the minute, the curtain drew on the Third Reich.

VE Day = Victory over Ed day?

or

VE Day = Victory over Etonians Day?

DanSmith said:

dyedwoolie said:

Over halfway through polling guys and gals.....

And still no hints.

Alistair said:

I've slapped £20 on the Most seats market taking my election exposure up to £570. It would be rude not to at those prices.

richardDodd said:

When will the British Population realise that we pay far too much in tax.. it has to stop.

watford30 said:

botanically_speaking said:

dyedwoolie said:

This could all come down to the simple reason I abandoned the Tories. The recovery has not got beyond the pockets of the banks and the rich. Voters may prefer Cameron and might be wary of Ed. There is however an underlying resentment that the rich have not been brought to heel, that taxes are not paid by the very wealthiest corps and people and so why should we face austerity if it benefits us not a jot?
There's your Labour plurality and Lab/SNP majority

.

Once again in my constituency I simply have to spunk my vote on the the LibDems when me, and a couple of thousand others like me, could have voted tory and seen Ed Balls heading for the dole office rather than Downing Street. I'll sit tight for ERS and CT and interest rates and whatever to go up and properly fuck me up. Thanks tories


I have read some nonsense on here but this is up with the best

botanically_speaking said:

FalseFlag said:

murali_s said:

Baskerville said:

Apropos of turnout... a few hours telling this morning in middle class area of Tooting saw turnout up about 15% on last election... Mansion Tax working for you, Sadiq?
N.B. This is only one PS in one ward of Tooting, but we only have to overturn a 2500 majority and if enough 2010 LDs hold their noses and vote against the "Three-bed London Semi Tax for Scottish Nurses", then he's toast.
Fun this, huh?
FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.

Where in London is a bog standard 3-bed semi £2 million?

Sadiq, who's a very popular local MP, will comfortably increase his majority.

Some of the nonsense spouted out by right-wing nut-jobs on here beggars belief!

I agree, I don't think the mansion tax is a good idea (property rights, targets everyone when it should target just foreign 'investors' etc.) but the idea it would affect many people or their votes is bizarre. Out of touch by the Conservative leadership.

No tax rises are a particularly good idea. The mansion tax will probably raise very little and the proceeds wasted.

But you have to win elections and that requires some political nous. It's gesture politics, I acknowledge. But it's good politics because it seems fair to lots of people in the middle.

If anyone wants to offer me £160k for my 4 bedroomed semi in a genuinely decent area with excellent local schools, 10 minute commute from central Leeds, I'll snatch their hand off.

Anyone who believes modestly higher taxes on a £2million property is a net vote loser is utterly detached from the reality of life in Yorkshire or, for that matter, most of the country.

James Parker, the Green candidate for the south London marginal of Eltham, has told his supporters they should give their votes to Labour, Jessica Elgot reports.

Parker, whose south London constituency is a Labour seat with a slim marginal of under 1,700 votes, told the Guardian he wanted to see Ed Miliband as prime minister.

“If you are voting Green in Eltham as a protest, do vote for Clive Efford, the Labour candidate,” Parker said. “If you really feel Green in your heart, then vote for me, but it is more important that we don’t have a Conservative government.”

Parker, who said he was genuinely still torn as to whether he would vote for himself, said he was hoping for Green victories in some of the closer seats, like Brighton Pavilion and Bristol West, but said he did not want people to vote Green where candidates, like him, could not win and where Labour was battling Tories.

foxinsoxuk said:

Stereotomy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Fenster said:

Are you confident Richard?

I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.

Doesn't look likely now.

I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.

Why are the polls getting it wrong?

It may not be the pollsters or punters getting it wrong. It could be the dammned voters getting it wrong!

JEO said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Fenster said:

Are you confident Richard?

I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.

Doesn't look likely now.

I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.

If Cameron is 3-4% ahead on votes he will be well ahead on seats (20-30?), in that situation I'd say he is highly likely to be PM: the Legitimacy Question.

However, as may be clear - ! - I doubt the Tories will even be 2% ahead (at most) and Labour will probably have the edge in seats.

One of us is going to be wrong. Your prediction is interesting to me, as you were so accurate on the indyref. But I remain despondent about Dave's chances.

And now I am going to go and see my girlfriend the policewoman, who is guarding the Polling Station at Primrose hill! I may bribe her to bar a few shifty, unsavoury, dishevelled local types from entering- playwrights, actors, musicians, Labour bigwigs, etc.

If Labour are only 20 seats behind then EICIPM:

Lab - 266
Con - 286
LD - 25
SNP - 50
Oth - 5
NI - 18

Lab+SNP+PC+Grn+SDLP=320, which will be enough.

If Labour is 30 seats behind, that does then enter knife-edge territory and at that point legitimacy does come into play.

Do you really think a five party coalition that still doesn't have a majority, let alone a working majority, is going to be a goer? It would be an absolute disaster and would barely last a few months.

Cyclefree said:

botanically_speaking said:

FalseFlag said:

murali_s said:

Baskerville said:

Apropos of turnout... a few hours telling this morning in middle class area of Tooting saw turnout up about 15% on last election... Mansion Tax working for you, Sadiq?
N.B. This is only one PS in one ward of Tooting, but we only have to overturn a 2500 majority and if enough 2010 LDs hold their noses and vote against the "Three-bed London Semi Tax for Scottish Nurses", then he's toast.
Fun this, huh?
FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.

Where in London is a bog standard 3-bed semi £2 million?

Sadiq, who's a very popular local MP, will comfortably increase his majority.

Some of the nonsense spouted out by right-wing nut-jobs on here beggars belief!

I agree, I don't think the mansion tax is a good idea (property rights, targets everyone when it should target just foreign 'investors' etc.) but the idea it would affect many people or their votes is bizarre. Out of touch by the Conservative leadership.

No tax rises are a particularly good idea. The mansion tax will probably raise very little and the proceeds wasted.

But you have to win elections and that requires some political nous. It's gesture politics, I acknowledge. But it's good politics because it seems fair to lots of people in the middle.

If anyone wants to offer me £160k for my 4 bedroomed semi in a genuinely decent area with excellent local schools, 10 minute commute from central Leeds, I'll snatch their hand off.

Anyone who believes modestly higher taxes on a £2million property is a net vote loser is utterly detached from the reality of life in Yorkshire or, for that matter, most of the country.

If there is going to be one, the mansion tax should be imposed on properties everywhere in the country i.e. on the top priced houses everywhere. Everyone should contribute to the NHS not just a few people. And it would be interesting to see how popular such a tax is when the relatively asset wealthy in regions a long way from London also have to pay it.

Danny565 said:

James Parker, the Green candidate for the south London marginal of Eltham, has told his supporters they should give their votes to Labour, Jessica Elgot reports.

Parker, whose south London constituency is a Labour seat with a slim marginal of under 1,700 votes, told the Guardian he wanted to see Ed Miliband as prime minister.

“If you are voting Green in Eltham as a protest, do vote for Clive Efford, the Labour candidate,” Parker said. “If you really feel Green in your heart, then vote for me, but it is more important that we don’t have a Conservative government.”

Parker, who said he was genuinely still torn as to whether he would vote for himself, said he was hoping for Green victories in some of the closer seats, like Brighton Pavilion and Bristol West, but said he did not want people to vote Green where candidates, like him, could not win and where Labour was battling Tories.

FrancisUrquhart said:

On next PM markets, does it count if the next PM only lasts a few days / weeks?

ThomasNashe said:

Danny565 said:

James Parker, the Green candidate for the south London marginal of Eltham, has told his supporters they should give their votes to Labour, Jessica Elgot reports.

Parker, whose south London constituency is a Labour seat with a slim marginal of under 1,700 votes, told the Guardian he wanted to see Ed Miliband as prime minister.

“If you are voting Green in Eltham as a protest, do vote for Clive Efford, the Labour candidate,” Parker said. “If you really feel Green in your heart, then vote for me, but it is more important that we don’t have a Conservative government.”

Parker, who said he was genuinely still torn as to whether he would vote for himself, said he was hoping for Green victories in some of the closer seats, like Brighton Pavilion and Bristol West, but said he did not want people to vote Green where candidates, like him, could not win and where Labour was battling Tories.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/may/07/election-polling-day-live-tories-and-labour-neck-and-neck-uk-votes

richardDodd said:

When will the British Population realise that we pay far too much in tax.. it has to stop.

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Danny565 said:

James Parker, the Green candidate for the south London marginal of Eltham, has told his supporters they should give their votes to Labour, Jessica Elgot reports.

Parker, whose south London constituency is a Labour seat with a slim marginal of under 1,700 votes, told the Guardian he wanted to see Ed Miliband as prime minister.

“If you are voting Green in Eltham as a protest, do vote for Clive Efford, the Labour candidate,” Parker said. “If you really feel Green in your heart, then vote for me, but it is more important that we don’t have a Conservative government.”

Parker, who said he was genuinely still torn as to whether he would vote for himself, said he was hoping for Green victories in some of the closer seats, like Brighton Pavilion and Bristol West, but said he did not want people to vote Green where candidates, like him, could not win and where Labour was battling Tories.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/may/07/election-polling-day-live-tories-and-labour-neck-and-neck-uk-votes

Wow! That's extraordinary. I wonder what Green HQ make of that?

MarkHopkins said:

To five more years of the most glorious coalition government that this country has ever known since the turn of the century.

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Chris123 said:

RodCrosby said:

100 years ago almost to the minute, the waters closed over the Lusitania....

70 years ago, almost to the minute, the curtain drew on the Third Reich.

VE Day = Victory over Ed day?

or

VE Day = Victory over Etonians Day?

I am calling Ilford North for Ed