The WHO report today came out with some very concerning numbers about levels of obesity in the UK. Apparently, 64% of women and 75% of men will be overweight by 2030. That's a sad state to be in as a country. We really need to do a much better job of teaching children how to manage nutrition and fitness when they're at school.
Body image concerns are like a pendulum swinging from too-thin models to unchecked obesity. While there is an obesity problem, I'm not wholly convinced by some of the norms that are used, with regard to secular increases in size and maturity, and ethnic differences, but that is perhaps uninformed quibbling.
Lab most seats in from 6.0 to 5.2 Lab majority in from 250 to 120 Cameron PM after election in from 2.04 to 1.90
I still think Lab most seats is good value. It sounds like SLAB are increasingly confident they are going to hold seats in Scotland today and outperform expectations. If they do, surely Lab will win most seats and Red Ed gets into number 10.
@guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon
Sounds like a Lab ICM lead to me..
Yes, I think so. There's been a late move to Labour, not the Tories. Why on earth this has happened, I have no idea, but I doubt ICM would buck that trend.
If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!
Watch out for over excited posts from ickle 'pouter and his squirrel companion, since he's in on the poll result.
Lab most seats in from 6.0 to 5.2 Lab majority in from 250 to 120 Cameron PM after election in from 2.04 to 1.90
I still think Lab most seats is good value. It sounds like SLAB are increasingly confident they are going to hold seats in Scotland today and outperform expectations. If they do, surely Lab will win most seats and Red Ed gets into number 10.
But I'm very sanguine* about the result. I harbour none of the visceral, irrational hatred I had for Gordon Brown back in 2010 and given that I like following politics for the blood-sport, I think Ed Miliband would be very interesting viewing as PM.
I still can't imagine it, not even now, despite its likelihood.
Ed Miliband as PM! Ed Miliband meeting Putin and Obama, shaking hands with the Queen once a week and greeting diplomats at Chequers?
Ed Miliband whom even Damien Mcbride (his mate and colleague) disparages and admits can't make a decision for toffee.
This will be fun.
Popcorn makers will do well in the next five years anyway...
I'm still thinking the Tories will be ahead by 10 seats.
But I'm very sanguine* about the result. I harbour none of the visceral, irrational hatred I had for Gordon Brown back in 2010 and given that I like following politics for the blood-sport, I think Ed Miliband would be very interesting viewing as PM.
I still can't imagine it, not even now, despite its likelihood.
Ed Miliband as PM! Ed Miliband meeting Putin and Obama, shaking hands with the Queen once a week and greeting diplomats at Chequers?
Ed Miliband whom even Damien Mcbride (his mate and colleague) disparages and admits can't make a decision for toffee.
This will be fun.
*It's easy to be sanguine in Wales. We have no money anyway - we just get it off the EU
Who knows? Maybe he'll be a bit "Thatcher-esque" (a lefty version of course). I think EICIPM will be successful, actually.
I base this on the fact that noone ever thought he could win. And he nearly has. There's certainly a drive and determination there i've not yet seen in many other policitians. DC has been a bit of a damp squib, and never really knew what he wanted to do with the power once he'd got it.
Ahem. Anecdotal argument against postal voting (Health warning: it's the Mash):
“Guess what, postal voters: I shot a load of zoo animals this morning, for no reason. And what are you going to do about it? Nothing, because you’ve already voted for me just to save yourself five minutes’ walk to a primary school.”
That's not satire. My local UKIP candidate is a prime example of that. Except it was a person he wanted to shoot.
If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!
Watch out for over excited posts from ickle 'pouter and his squirrel companion, since he's in on the poll result.
Who?
Compouter2 - he obviously knows the ICM figures (as he did yesterday) and is more than content with them, so Lab lead. But does that matter much now?
very funny speculation going on here. guess it passes the time 'til 10pm but its all idle fancy. the first hint of anything will be if the exit poll leaks around 9pm. if it doesn't then were all whistling in the wind until 10pm. No offence n' all that.
Lab most seats in from 6.0 to 5.2 Lab majority in from 250 to 120 Cameron PM after election in from 2.04 to 1.90
I still think Lab most seats is good value. It sounds like SLAB are increasingly confident they are going to hold seats in Scotland today and outperform expectations. If they do, surely Lab will win most seats and Red Ed gets into number 10.
I thought Labour most seats was already at 4.5
Where do you get that from? It sounds like Labour would be very happy with a handful of seats in Scotland.
Lab most seats in from 6.0 to 5.2 Lab majority in from 250 to 120 Cameron PM after election in from 2.04 to 1.90
I still think Lab most seats is good value. It sounds like SLAB are increasingly confident they are going to hold seats in Scotland today and outperform expectations. If they do, surely Lab will win most seats and Red Ed gets into number 10.
I thought Labour most seats was already at 4.5
It will be all over the place. More important to look at Con most seat.
I really cant understand the betfair most seats market.
Despite all the evidence of a lot of polling in the past 24 hours that the parties are pretty much neck & neck and fairly convincing evidence of a firming up of the labour vote, there are still significant numbers of people prepared to give odds of over 4/1 against labour will having the most seats. I am happy to admit on the polling it is not clear who will come out with most seats, you can make the case either way. However that would suggest the odds for the tories & labour should be similar. I know that there is a thought that tory inclined voters are more inclined to bet than labour ones (I must admit to doing fairly well on the seats market last time as I was very confident labour would be 250+ and the spread market very much under priced labour) but this really makes very little sense.
Is there anyone on here who is offering 5.3 on labour having the most seats and if so could you explain your reasoning?
If I had listened to financial markets analysts the way some on here adhere to pollsters, I probably wouldn't be posting this from Barbados. Great place to follow the results. Five hours behind, bbc 24 on tap, as much rum as I can drink. Oh and balcony overlooking Caribbean Sea.
As the polls move towards Labour, the Betfair odds on Cameron as PM continue to fall, now 1.86 from 2.64 about a week ago.
Very odd
Apparently there's some confusion how Betfair may settle this market. So that may be affecting its price. Dave may not need to pass a queens speech to win on this market for example, he might just need to make an attempt to pass one to be considered PM after election.
I find the mosts seats price more bizarre. The polls and seats forecast projects are very, very close (and most of them expect SNP to win almost all the seats in Scotland - and I still doubt this will happen). How the Tories are priced 1.20-1.23 to win most seats at this stage is beyond me. I want to believe the prices are right, but I just don't see how it can be this short.
If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!
Watch out for over excited posts from ickle 'pouter and his squirrel companion, since he's in on the poll result.
Who?
Compouter2 - he obviously knows the ICM figures (as he did yesterday) and is more than content with them, so Lab lead. But does that matter much now?
How would he know them? Isn't it just a lucky guess?
Lab most seats in from 6.0 to 5.2 Lab majority in from 250 to 120 Cameron PM after election in from 2.04 to 1.90
I still think Lab most seats is good value. It sounds like SLAB are increasingly confident they are going to hold seats in Scotland today and outperform expectations. If they do, surely Lab will win most seats and Red Ed gets into number 10.
I thought Labour most seats was already at 4.5
No - I backed Labour Most Seats at 6.2 this morning.
If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!
Watch out for over excited posts from ickle 'pouter and his squirrel companion, since he's in on the poll result.
Who?
Compouter2 - he obviously knows the ICM figures (as he did yesterday) and is more than content with them, so Lab lead. But does that matter much now?
I'm still thinking the Tories will be ahead by 10 seats.
But I'm very sanguine* about the result. I harbour none of the visceral, irrational hatred I had for Gordon Brown back in 2010 and given that I like following politics for the blood-sport, I think Ed Miliband would be very interesting viewing as PM.
I still can't imagine it, not even now, despite its likelihood.
Ed Miliband as PM! Ed Miliband meeting Putin and Obama, shaking hands with the Queen once a week and greeting diplomats at Chequers?
Ed Miliband whom even Damien Mcbride (his mate and colleague) disparages and admits can't make a decision for toffee.
This will be fun.
*It's easy to be sanguine in Wales. We have no money anyway - we just get it off the EU
Who knows? Maybe he'll be a bit "Thatcher-esque" (a lefty version of course). I think EICIPM will be successful, actually.
Nah, he'll be a disaster. Alex and Nicola will run rings round him and the whole thing will ultimately collapse in total acrimony and bitterness...
If Scotland has not after all gone SNP en masse and the Tories are having a tougher time than expected south of the border, then let's not forget Ed could find himself with or close to a majority tomorrow. The momentum is with Labour not the Tories.
I thought whilst Cameron in his polling station photo was all smiles, Sam looked like death.
The WHO report today came out with some very concerning numbers about levels of obesity in the UK. Apparently, 64% of women and 75% of men will be overweight by 2030. That's a sad state to be in as a country. We really need to do a much better job of teaching children how to manage nutrition and fitness when they're at school.
The Netherlands are the only major European going the other way. Mostly down to 25% of journeys by cycling and less of a fast food culture. I was told by an Indonesian Dutch doctor at a conference that cycling lessons are part of the citizenship programme. Can't be Dutch if you cannot ride a bike!
Lab most seats in from 6.0 to 5.2 Lab majority in from 250 to 120 Cameron PM after election in from 2.04 to 1.90
I still think Lab most seats is good value. It sounds like SLAB are increasingly confident they are going to hold seats in Scotland today and outperform expectations. If they do, surely Lab will win most seats and Red Ed gets into number 10.
6 seats out of 41 does not sound like confident to me
Given the closeness, for the first time in a very long time every vote counts in every constituency - even safe ones. Winning most votes nationally will surely be a huge plus point if the seat tallies are close.
That said, I still can't see past a decent Tory seat lead; 30 looks about right.
@guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon
Sounds like a Lab ICM lead to me..
Yes, I think so. There's been a late move to Labour, not the Tories. Why on earth this has happened, I have no idea, but I doubt ICM would buck that trend.
Particularly not if the Guardian are tweeting it.
It's #EdStone what won it.
Don't say that. They'll all have them next time otherwise. Won't be able to move for them.
If I had listened to financial markets analysts the way some on here adhere to pollsters, I probably wouldn't be posting this from Barbados. Great place to follow the results. Five hours behind, bbc 24 on tap, as much rum as I can drink. Oh and balcony overlooking Caribbean Sea.
Election procedure question: Chap in the office says his aunt is part of the counting team today. Apparently they receive boxes throughout the day which are opened and counted to 'spread the load'.
I thought that nothing could be opened until the polls had closed to prevent partial results influencing matters. Could there be locals which are handled differently?
Can someone clarify what happens? My (short) attempt at googling drew a blank.
If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!
Watch out for over excited posts from ickle 'pouter and his squirrel companion, since he's in on the poll result.
Who?
Compouter2 - he obviously knows the ICM figures (as he did yesterday) and is more than content with them, so Lab lead. But does that matter much now?
How would he know them? Isn't it just a lucky guess?
One of the most stupid PR stunts not going down well with the twittersphere...
Disgruntled teenagers and twentysomethings have taken to Twitter today to air their disgruntlement at the withdrawal of access to Charmed and the Big Bang Theory.
@guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon
if lab move ahead then the impression of a late swing but to Labour will be complete.
what fun....
There has been no late swing.
I thought the Question Time debate was a disaster ! The man can't eat a bacon sandwich. He knifed his brother in the back. Didn't he say the Labour Party "did not overspend".
Surely, there could not be any late swing to Labour. Could it ?
We'll find out how effective the Conservative Party's electronic GOTV operation is. For the next 12 hours or so, I'm inclined to treat price movements as reflecting rumours rather than facts.
But it is noticeable that CCHQ messaging on Miliband has been self-contradictory: why should voters fear someone so inept at the art of bacon sandwich-eating? He can't be Stalin and Mr Bean.
If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!
Watch out for over excited posts from ickle 'pouter and his squirrel companion, since he's in on the poll result.
Who?
Compouter2 - he obviously knows the ICM figures (as he did yesterday) and is more than content with them, so Lab lead. But does that matter much now?
How would he know them? Isn't it just a lucky guess?
He was dropping very specific hints yesterday that suggest he knows. Also, previously he would do the same and pop up for certain polls.
If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!
Watch out for over excited posts from ickle 'pouter and his squirrel companion, since he's in on the poll result.
Who?
Compouter2 - he obviously knows the ICM figures (as he did yesterday) and is more than content with them, so Lab lead. But does that matter much now?
How would he know them? Isn't it just a lucky guess?
Yes, of course, it could be but my (wholly unprovable) surmise is that he does have access to polling information. Anyway, we shall find out soon enough.
In homage to Avery, here's a yellow box with the latest forecasts from various academics/pundits, and a slection of PB regulars. Apologies for any mistakes (in a couple of cases I've had to guess the PC/Respect figures):
If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!
Watch out for over excited posts from ickle 'pouter and his squirrel companion, since he's in on the poll result.
Who?
Compouter2 - he obviously knows the ICM figures (as he did yesterday) and is more than content with them, so Lab lead. But does that matter much now?
How would he know them? Isn't it just a lucky guess?
Works for the newspaper involved?
I'm finding it hard to distinguish speculation from actual information here.
If Scotland has not after all gone SNP en masse and the Tories are having a tougher time than expected south of the border, then let's not forget Ed could find himself with or close to a majority tomorrow. The momentum is with Labour not the Tories.
I thought whilst Cameron in his polling station photo was all smiles, Sam looked like death.
What if ICM have detected a last minute shift rightwards and are holding as long as possible so they can say they are the only firm to have picked up on this? Still think it will be 35/34 or 33 in fav of Lab though
One of the most stupid PR stunts not going down well with the twittersphere...
Disgruntled teenagers and twentysomethings have taken to Twitter today to air their disgruntlement at the withdrawal of access to Charmed and the Big Bang Theory.
I thought whilst Cameron in his polling station photo was all smiles, Sam looked like death.
They know it's all over.
Surely if they knew it was all over they would be the other way round? Sam would get her life back.
LOL, you really are as bad as your posts. She does not exactly have much to do other than lounge about , spend money and leave it all to the servants. LOL.
I really cant understand the betfair most seats market.
Despite all the evidence of a lot of polling in the past 24 hours that the parties are pretty much neck & neck and fairly convincing evidence of a firming up of the labour vote, there are still significant numbers of people prepared to give odds of over 4/1 against labour will having the most seats. I am happy to admit on the polling it is not clear who will come out with most seats, you can make the case either way. However that would suggest the odds for the tories & labour should be similar. I know that there is a thought that tory inclined voters are more inclined to bet than labour ones (I must admit to doing fairly well on the seats market last time as I was very confident labour would be 250+ and the spread market very much under priced labour) but this really makes very little sense.
Is there anyone on here who is offering 5.3 on labour having the most seats and if so could you explain your reasoning?
Well I can't explain it, JGC, but I will have a guess.
The market is being played by punters with little experience of political betting. They see the main Parties are virtually tied and think that with Labour losing 40 or so seats in Scotland that must make the Conservatives favorites for most seats.
Anyway, 5.3 is a daft price for Labour and I've been backing that judgement with hard-earned all morning.
very funny speculation going on here. guess it passes the time 'til 10pm but its all idle fancy. the first hint of anything will be if the exit poll leaks around 9pm. if it doesn't then were all whistling in the wind until 10pm. No offence n' all that.
No offence taken. It's just that unless all the polls - all of them - are not just wrong but wrong by a lot, then the eventual outcome is not in doubt, just the exact balance of it and how long it takes to get there, so that naturally starts the speculation early.
LOL, you really are as bad as your posts. She does not exactly have much to do other than lounge about , spend money and leave it all to the servants. LOL.
Something doesn't seem right to me when Labour voters are more likely to vote than Tories. They may say that but I thought it didn't quite work out like that in practice.
I thought whilst Cameron in his polling station photo was all smiles, Sam looked like death.
They know it's all over.
This is all very entertaining. Is it normally like this on here on the election day? We're now basing the General Election result on whether the pm's wife smiled at 7am? Lovin it.
If Scotland has not after all gone SNP en masse and the Tories are having a tougher time than expected south of the border, then let's not forget Ed could find himself with or close to a majority tomorrow. The momentum is with Labour not the Tories.
I thought whilst Cameron in his polling station photo was all smiles, Sam looked like death.
They know it's all over.
Or else Sam was quite looking forward to getting her life back and now she's got five more years ;-)
@guardian_clark: ICM detail 2: In marginal battlegrounds where Con were 2% ahead in 2010, Lab has 11% lead today. Sub-samples, for sure, but not tiny ones
I thought whilst Cameron in his polling station photo was all smiles, Sam looked like death.
They know it's all over.
Surely if they knew it was all over they would be the other way round? Sam would get her life back.
LOL, you really are as bad as your posts. She does not exactly have much to do other than lounge about , spend money and leave it all to the servants. LOL.
She's Creative Director of Smythsons too. A more rewarding and high powered role than whatever factory work you do.
I really cant understand the betfair most seats market.
Despite all the evidence of a lot of polling in the past 24 hours that the parties are pretty much neck & neck and fairly convincing evidence of a firming up of the labour vote, there are still significant numbers of people prepared to give odds of over 4/1 against labour will having the most seats. I am happy to admit on the polling it is not clear who will come out with most seats, you can make the case either way. However that would suggest the odds for the tories & labour should be similar. I know that there is a thought that tory inclined voters are more inclined to bet than labour ones (I must admit to doing fairly well on the seats market last time as I was very confident labour would be 250+ and the spread market very much under priced labour) but this really makes very little sense.
Is there anyone on here who is offering 5.3 on labour having the most seats and if so could you explain your reasoning?
Well I can't explain it, JGC, but I will have a guess.
The market is being played by punters with little experience of political betting. They see the main Parties are virtually tied and think that with Labour losing 40 or so seats in Scotland that must make the Conservatives favorites for most seats.
Anyway, 5.3 is a daft price for Labour and I've been backing that judgement with hard-earned all morning.
Comments
Lab 34,36,34,35,30,35
Con 33,34,33,33,35,36
That was the one with the Lab VI retention number of 63%.
Solid Con seat FWIW.
Lab majority in from 250 to 120
Cameron PM after election in from 2.04 to 1.90
I still think Lab most seats is good value. It sounds like SLAB are increasingly confident they are going to hold seats in Scotland today and outperform expectations. If they do, surely Lab will win most seats and Red Ed gets into number 10.
I base this on the fact that noone ever thought he could win. And he nearly has. There's certainly a drive and determination there i've not yet seen in many other policitians. DC has been a bit of a damp squib, and never really knew what he wanted to do with the power once he'd got it.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/61164/administration-of-2010-uk-general-election.pdf
2015 - news article on foul ups by Hackney Council. Look on Twitter.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/angry-and-chaotic-scenes-in-london-borough-as-queues-grow-and-glitch-hits-voting-systems-10231555.html
Despite all the evidence of a lot of polling in the past 24 hours that the parties are pretty much neck & neck and fairly convincing evidence of a firming up of the labour vote, there are still significant numbers of people prepared to give odds of over 4/1 against labour will having the most seats. I am happy to admit on the polling it is not clear who will come out with most seats, you can make the case either way. However that would suggest the odds for the tories & labour should be similar. I know that there is a thought that tory inclined voters are more inclined to bet than labour ones (I must admit to doing fairly well on the seats market last time as I was very confident labour would be 250+ and the spread market very much under priced labour) but this really makes very little sense.
Is there anyone on here who is offering 5.3 on labour having the most seats and if so could you explain your reasoning?
SPIN 316 (290+26)
SPRX 314 (288+26)
IG 316.5 (288+28.5)
Betfair aren't exactly comparable, but Tory over/under 287.5 is pretty much bang on equal.
Great place to follow the results. Five hours behind, bbc 24 on tap, as much rum as I can drink. Oh and balcony overlooking Caribbean Sea.
I find the mosts seats price more bizarre. The polls and seats forecast projects are very, very close (and most of them expect SNP to win almost all the seats in Scotland - and I still doubt this will happen). How the Tories are priced 1.20-1.23 to win most seats at this stage is beyond me. I want to believe the prices are right, but I just don't see how it can be this short.
I thought whilst Cameron in his polling station photo was all smiles, Sam looked like death.
They know it's all over.
That said, I still can't see past a decent Tory seat lead; 30 looks about right.
Chap in the office says his aunt is part of the counting team today. Apparently they receive boxes throughout the day which are opened and counted to 'spread the load'.
I thought that nothing could be opened until the polls had closed to prevent partial results influencing matters. Could there be locals which are handled differently?
Can someone clarify what happens? My (short) attempt at googling drew a blank.
Scottish National Party is an anagram of "I train total sycophants"!
Disgruntled teenagers and twentysomethings have taken to Twitter today to air their disgruntlement at the withdrawal of access to Charmed and the Big Bang Theory.
http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/general-election-2015-but-i-want-to-watch-charmed-teenagers-moan-at-e4-shutdown-10231622.html
But it is noticeable that CCHQ messaging on Miliband has been self-contradictory: why should voters fear someone so inept at the art of bacon sandwich-eating? He can't be Stalin and Mr Bean.
Con Lab LD UKIP SNP PC Resp Grn ======================================= rcs100 311 248 18 2 47 3 1 1 JackW 302 251 28 3 42 3 1 1 Richard Nabavi 295 258 22 3 48 3 1 1 Jonathan 295 270 20 2 40 4? 0 0 Rod Crosby 294 247 34 2 49 3 1 1 Southam Observer 290 251 27 3 55 3 1 1 Peter the Punter 284 264 25 3 50 1? 0? 2 Nick Palmer 271 280 24 2 50 3 0 1 antifrank 266 280 21 4 54 4 1 1 Stephen Fisher 285 262 25 3 53 3 1 1 Peter Kellner 283 261 32 2 50 3 0 1 Election Forecast 281 266 27 1 51 4 1 1 UKelect 274 275 26 2 50 3 0 1 May2015 273 268 28 2 56 3 1 1 Poll Observatory 271 273 24 2 55 3 0 1Where was Mrs Farage?
What if ICM have detected a last minute shift rightwards and are holding as long as possible so they can say they are the only firm to have picked up on this?
Still think it will be 35/34 or 33 in fav of Lab though
Any later and it'll be called an exit poll
The market is being played by punters with little experience of political betting. They see the main Parties are virtually tied and think that with Labour losing 40 or so seats in Scotland that must make the Conservatives favorites for most seats.
Anyway, 5.3 is a daft price for Labour and I've been backing that judgement with hard-earned all morning.
Ummmm....
Dr Fox? Peter Bone? Lord Ashcroft?
Almost up there with the old: Ronald Wilson Reagan - Insane Anglo Warlord.
Will he last the night though ??
Ed Miliband should comfortably form a government on UNS (with SNP support).
Does your G stand for Garnett? You do seem to have many Alf-like traits...
Some are maybe city people used to watching highly qualified analysts spout rubbish on a daily basis
Guess people just don't like voting for austerity. but sample of 450 might leave icm with egg on face.
"We've been showing nude pictures of the party leaders casting their votes."
And there was me thinking the ballot was meant to be private!
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/07/labour-one-point-lead-tories-final-icm-poll
If they are correct on the seat projections, it looks like we will be in a very uncertain ride for the next years with constant horse trading.
(or not)