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  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2015

    "We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.

    And yet today you've voted for a party under whose government it was more the case than it is now, and whose policies would have the direct consequence of making inequality worse in the future.

    It is indeed a funny old world.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RodCrosby said:

    Three Labour canvassers knocking on the door, including an 'ethnic' Cockney!

    Not a good use of resources...

    We just had a car driving past our house; up and down the side-streets with someone shouting through a megaphone "Vote Labour, Vote Labour" repeatedly.

    Not very pleasant when we'd just got our baby daughter down to sleep. Rather inappropriate I think.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Carnyx said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Disturbing reports of people being turned away from an Annan polling station by burly blokes if they say they don't support a certain party.

    — Ruth Davidson MSP (@RuthDavidsonMSP) May 7, 2015
    I assume the intimation is that these "burly blokes" are SNP.
    https://twitter.com/dgcouncil/status/596302016416247810
    The most shocking thing about that photo is it appears there is a man in Scotland wearing a Conservative rosette.

    #megaTick

    Annan is in DCT Mundell's seat you do know! !
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Prodicus said:

    House-trained Marxist Brendan O'Neill at SunNation (extract):
    http://www.sunnation.co.uk/this-is-why-leftie-brendan-oneill-wont-be-giving-red-ed-his-x/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-SunNation-_-20150507-_-SunNation-_-177805817

    "I’d rather sauté my own testicles than give my X to the Miliband-run Labour Party. For me, being left-wing has always meant three things:

    2) Believing ordinary people are capable of running their own lives, without needing experts to hold their hands and whisper patronising advice in their lugholes.

    ???

    This is 180 degrees opposite to how lefties think and act!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    "We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.

    I agree that a clear political break point in this parliament was the 2012 budget, particularly the rise of UKIP at the expense of the Tories.

    However, I think this government has been as financially and economically responsible for the average man as could have been expected under virtually any scenario.

    The problem has been its branding, selling of itself, and explaining of itself. All of which have been woeful.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Isn't it bizarre that the lead story on the Beeb website (and elsewhere) is 'UK party leaders cast their votes'? Not exactly news, is it?

    Hell of a story if they didn't, certainly.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    "We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.

    And yet today you've voted for a party under whose government it was more the case than it is now, and whose policies would have the direct consequence of making inequality worse in the future.

    It is indeed a funny old world.
    There are a lot of people who vote for parties not because of what it has done or says it will do but because of what they'd like to believe it would do, irrespective of any objective evidence.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    edited May 2015
    TGOHF said:

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    acf2310 said:

    Lab edge up to 265 on SPIN, Con remain at 288.

    BF is DC 1.95 EM 2.08
    Con most seats 1.25 Lab most seats 4.8

    Anything to move these figures before the exit poll?

    The Lab most seats 1.01 train seems to have broken down at the 4.8 station..
    Quite quite bizarre. If the Tories are more than 20 seats ahead, Cameron will, I reckon, be PM.

    Yet, the polls, the polls.

    *bangs head lightly with Labour Immigration mug*
    There are scenarios where the polls and the markets are right - an SNP style wave of mega majorities across safe Labour seats - which there is evidence of in Lord A's mega poll by region.

    This. Labour will get bigger majorities in its safe seats and what became its marginals as lots of Red LDs who went over to Clegg in 2010 come home. But in Tory marginals there are far fewer of them because last time they held their noses and voted Labour as the Tories were a far worse option. They'll vote Labour again this time with more enthusiasm, but just as there were not enough of them to keep the seats red then there will not be enough of them now.

    There is no real doubt that the Labour vote share will go up today - despite the Scottish carnage - but outside of London and maybe parts of NW England it will go up in the wrong places from a seat-winning perspective. And in the Midlands it will be bleak. Nick may win his seat, but very few others will change hands.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    "We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.

    A profoundly reassuring post. Jack's ARSE and SO never let you down.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,396
    hunchman said:

    Carnyx said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Disturbing reports of people being turned away from an Annan polling station by burly blokes if they say they don't support a certain party.

    — Ruth Davidson MSP (@RuthDavidsonMSP) May 7, 2015
    I assume the intimation is that these "burly blokes" are SNP.
    https://twitter.com/dgcouncil/status/596302016416247810
    The most shocking thing about that photo is it appears there is a man in Scotland wearing a Conservative rosette.

    #megaTick
    Annan is in DCT Mundell's seat you do know! !

    I think someone's trying to create a panda-monium ...

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    hunchman said:

    Carnyx said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Disturbing reports of people being turned away from an Annan polling station by burly blokes if they say they don't support a certain party.

    — Ruth Davidson MSP (@RuthDavidsonMSP) May 7, 2015
    I assume the intimation is that these "burly blokes" are SNP.
    https://twitter.com/dgcouncil/status/596302016416247810
    The most shocking thing about that photo is it appears there is a man in Scotland wearing a Conservative rosette.

    #megaTick
    Annan is in DCT Mundell's seat you do know! !

    According to fivethirtyeight DCT was the constituency most in line with the national vote in 2010.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    "We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.

    And yet today you've voted for a party under whose government it was more the case than it is now, and whose policies would have the direct consequence of making inequality worse in the future.

    It is indeed a funny old world.
    There are a lot of people who vote for parties not because of what it has done or says it will do but because of what they'd like to believe it would do, irrespective of any objective evidence.
    Undoubtedly. The firmness of the images of various parties is quite remarkable.

  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141

    acf2310 said:

    Slightly surprised to see this - understand re Bury North but Bury South (from a Labour tweeter)?

    I know my constituency is safe but those voting in Bury North and South - its so, so tight. Vote for @Frith4BuryNorth and @IvanLewis_MP

    Bury South is really weird -- I live in Bury N and do a little work for the Tories. I'm hearing that Ivan Lewis is delivering far more leaflets that you'd expect in a safe seat, often focussed on how voting UKIP will 'let the Tories in.' My sense is that UKIP have a decent candidate in Bury S -- he's not going to win, but he might give the Tory candidate something of a shot if he does well in Lab heartlands like Radcliffe.

    That being said I'd be staggered if Ivan Lewis gets less than a 4000 majority. I'd also be surprised if the majority in Bury N isn't less than 1000, whichever way it goes.
    I'd go along with SeanT's subsequent explanation below, but as a resident of Bury South, I've been pointing out over recent weeks on here the surprising amount of Lewis leaflets. I do think the constituency is very much gentrifying (I've moved there since 2010... :-) ), certainly more so than Bury N which has always been fairly affluent in pockets, and it is of course one of the most heavily Jewish constituencies in the land and there were recent polls (UK) suggesting the Jewish vote was leaning heavily Tory IIRC.

    So, maybe, just maybe it is indeed close - helped by a surprising UKIP showing (it's next door to Heywood & Middleton too)....
    I was surprised that Michelle Wiseman didn't do a little better last time. Are you getting much contact from Daniel Critchlow?

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SeanT said:

    I suggest that if, against all the odds (or at least the polls) JackW is vindicated, then we should have JackW's ARSE cast in gold and kept at PB Towers under glass, for all to admire.

    This is entirely feasible, by the way.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2359590/Would-cast-brass-How-turning-bits-body-art-new-middle-class-trend.html

    Might I suggest Damien Hirst be commissioned to undertake a platinum and diamond encrusted ARSE named :

    "For the Love of ARSE"

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    RodCrosby said:

    Three Labour canvassers knocking on the door, including an 'ethnic' Cockney!

    Not a good use of resources...

    one can read, another can write and the third watches the dangerous intellectuals.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Dair said:

    Whatever happened to cars with megaphones?

    Do they still exist anywhere?

    Heard one in Edinburgh South West on Bank Holiday weekend Sunday morning. SNP, naturally.
  • LaurusLaurus Posts: 10

    "We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.

    Correct, and I'm astonished the Tories didn't do more to counter that in the campaign, some sort of positive message about the future.

    Instead it was all unpleasantly personal on the perfectly decent Ed Miliband, and the "promise" of more austerity.

    I think the Tories have been guilty of believing their own spin, on Miliband, on the economy, on Crosby's swingback, on everything.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    edited May 2015
    Pulp


    I'm in the smoke with an hour to kill before pub opens lol

    Go the the zoo otherwise known as Soho and head for the Italian Bar on Greek Street. You'll at least enjoy the surroundings. You might even see some misbehaving Lib Dems. It has been known
  • lolandollolandol Posts: 35
    BBC reporting more registered voters than 2010. Maybe turnout percentage won't be higher as a result of less people registered?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SouthamObserver

    'The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.'

    And as we found out in the 70's driving the aspirational, wealthy and large corporations out of the UK isn't sustainable either, but it makes the left feel good.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    Nothing has changed in the last 36 hours or even two four weeks.

    The only small difference that has been was recorded in the beginning of the campaign when the Great British public found out that Ed Miliband did not eat babies after all. There was a one-off jump and it has remained like that.

    I think you may be misreading this.

    I think people that were flirting with the Greens and such like have suddenly realised that the Tories were winning and are swinging behind Ed and trying to shore up Labour.
    What you are both misreading is labour's 'Tories eat babies' campaign as per their last PPB with Coogan.
    In contrast the tories have not said that of Miliband or Labour. The papers may have derided Miliband and pointed out that Labour are happy with segregated audiences. The reality is the Tories have done nothing in office to justify these Labour attacks; but if the electorate chose to believe Labour then thats the boat we are stuck in.
    As for the Green vote - looking at the breakdowns earlier in Ashcrofts poll - then for England and Wales the Labour vote was mostly dire and the Greens remarkably good. Didn't ICM do Ashctofts polls?
    RodCrosby said:

    100 years ago almost to the minute, the waters closed over the Lusitania....

    Made me pause for thought, my grandmother was on the Lusitania and survived, otherwise I wouldn't be here wittering on!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited May 2015
    The Green Slogan, 'Vote For What You Believe In' is quite seductive, until you look at what they appear to believe in, almost all the lost causes of the last 50 years.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Prodicus said:

    House-trained Marxist Brendan O'Neill at SunNation (extract):
    http://www.sunnation.co.uk/this-is-why-leftie-brendan-oneill-wont-be-giving-red-ed-his-x/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-SunNation-_-20150507-_-SunNation-_-177805817

    "I’d rather sauté my own testicles than give my X to the Miliband-run Labour Party. For me, being left-wing has always meant three things:

    2) Believing ordinary people are capable of running their own lives, without needing experts to hold their hands and whisper patronising advice in their lugholes.

    ???

    This is 180 degrees opposite to how lefties think and act!
    Read spiked-online. He is editor, spiked is the phoenix that arose from Marxism Today, one of Britains better political journals. O'Neill is a leftist libertarian now.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    "We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.

    I agree that a clear political break point in this parliament was the 2012 budget, particularly the rise of UKIP at the expense of the Tories.

    However, I think this government has been as financially and economically responsible for the average man as could have been expected under virtually any scenario.

    The problem has been its branding, selling of itself, and explaining of itself. All of which have been woeful.
    I think it was 2010 not 2012.
    The compromises of the coalition lead to the betrayal of many core principles of both parties, that lead to the suicide of the LD's and the surge of UKIP, though the LD suffered more though due to them being the junior partner.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328

    "We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.


    I am paying more tax than I was under Labour and have lost child benefit. And my pension savings have been attacked (again).

    It is nonsense to say that I have never had it so good. I am worse off than I was and will likely be even worse off if Labour get in. I will not starve obviously and there are plenty who are much much less well off than me. So this is not a whinge.

    I just find it strange that you say that people have never had it so good. The time for saying that was under Labour - thought much of the wealth was illusory.
  • LaurusLaurus Posts: 10

    TGOHF said:

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    acf2310 said:

    Lab edge up to 265 on SPIN, Con remain at 288.

    BF is DC 1.95 EM 2.08
    Con most seats 1.25 Lab most seats 4.8

    Anything to move these figures before the exit poll?

    The Lab most seats 1.01 train seems to have broken down at the 4.8 station..
    Quite quite bizarre. If the Tories are more than 20 seats ahead, Cameron will, I reckon, be PM.

    Yet, the polls, the polls.

    *bangs head lightly with Labour Immigration mug*
    There are scenarios where the polls and the markets are right - an SNP style wave of mega majorities across safe Labour seats - which there is evidence of in Lord A's mega poll by region.

    This. Labour will get bigger majorities in its safe seats and what became its marginals as lots of Red LDs who went over to Clegg in 2010 come home. But in Tory marginals there are far fewer of them because last time they held their noses and voted Labour as the Tories were a far worse option. They'll vote Labour again this time with more enthusiasm, but just as there were not enough of them to keep the seats red then there will not be enough of them now.

    There is no real doubt that the Labour vote share will go up today - despite the Scottish carnage - but outside of London and maybe parts of NW England it will go up in the wrong places from a seat-winning perspective. And in the Midlands it will be bleak. Nick may win his seat, but very few others will change hands.
    Haven't Ashcroft's polls being showing marginals swings equal to, or greater than the national?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    Isn't it bizarre that the lead story on the Beeb website (and elsewhere) is 'UK party leaders cast their votes'? Not exactly news, is it?

    It's always odd on election day because there are tight rules about what the media can report until the polls close...

    Which makes all these opinion polls that have appeared today all the stranger.

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited May 2015
    Laurus said:

    "We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.

    Correct, and I'm astonished the Tories didn't do more to counter that in the campaign, some sort of positive message about the future.

    Instead it was all unpleasantly personal on the perfectly decent Ed Miliband, and the "promise" of more austerity.

    I think the Tories have been guilty of believing their own spin, on Miliband, on the economy, on Crosby's swingback, on everything.

    A number of people have said that the Tories should have been positive about the economy, but that would have allowed Labour to push the argument that it was "safe" to let Labour back in.

    No plan survives contact with the opposition.

  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Sandpit said:

    SeanT said:

    Tabman said:

    SeanT said:

    FWIW I was at a party chatting with a very senior Guardian journo last night (presumably well informed).

    We agreed that Cameron's heart wasn't in it (he thought Cameron was just laid-back and bored, I argued that Cameron didn't want the EU referendum hassle). We concluded this is one big reason he won't be PM next month.

    However he was also adamant that Cameron would just shade it in seats.


    I'd go with a safe pair of hands, a Hammond or May for the autumn election.

    Both millionaires and then some. Owen Jones & Brand would explode. Nasty mess.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    SeanT said:

    "We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.

    But you've been predicting Dave will win for the last month. Duh? Back pedalling?

    By "running away" I mean cruising towards a majority. I am still very comfortable with my 30 seat winning margin for them. But given the improving economy, EdM's leadership and the Labour collapse in Scotland, winning 290 or so seats on a 35% vote share is not really that much to shout about.

  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I suggest that if, against all the odds (or at least the polls) JackW is vindicated, then we should have JackW's ARSE cast in gold and kept at PB Towers under glass, for all to admire.

    This is entirely feasible, by the way.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2359590/Would-cast-brass-How-turning-bits-body-art-new-middle-class-trend.html

    Might I suggest Damien Hirst be commissioned to undertake a platinum and diamond encrusted ARSE named :

    "For the Love of ARSE"

    Wouldn't Hirst pickle the by now famous anatomical part and then cut it into slices?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    edited May 2015
    Cyclefree

    It is nonsense to say that I have never had it so good. I am worse off than I was and will likely be even worse off if Labour get in. I will not starve obviously and there are plenty who are much much less well off than me. So this is not a whinge.

    Well you mustn't own your own house or if you do it must be very small or you must have very little equity in it otherwise it's very difficult to be worse off than you were five years ago
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Darlington council really are a bunch of incompetents aren't they.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    So we've had the last polls, we've had the Tory IT system down and now this latest blow to morale...

    #SunNation‏@SunNation·2 mins2 minutes ago
    Exclusive: 'I really will leave Britain if Ed wins' http://sunnation.co/6016A4io This is not a joke @KTHopkins means it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Laurus said:

    TGOHF said:

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    acf2310 said:

    Lab edge up to 265 on SPIN, Con remain at 288.

    BF is DC 1.95 EM 2.08
    Con most seats 1.25 Lab most seats 4.8

    Anything to move these figures before the exit poll?

    The Lab most seats 1.01 train seems to have broken down at the 4.8 station..
    Quite quite bizarre. If the Tories are more than 20 seats ahead, Cameron will, I reckon, be PM.

    Yet, the polls, the polls.

    *bangs head lightly with Labour Immigration mug*
    There are scenarios where the polls and the markets are right - an SNP style wave of mega majorities across safe Labour seats - which there is evidence of in Lord A's mega poll by region.

    This. Labour will get bigger majorities in its safe seats and what became its marginals as lots of Red LDs who went over to Clegg in 2010 come home. But in Tory marginals there are far fewer of them because last time they held their noses and voted Labour as the Tories were a far worse option. They'll vote Labour again this time with more enthusiasm, but just as there were not enough of them to keep the seats red then there will not be enough of them now.

    There is no real doubt that the Labour vote share will go up today - despite the Scottish carnage - but outside of London and maybe parts of NW England it will go up in the wrong places from a seat-winning perspective. And in the Midlands it will be bleak. Nick may win his seat, but very few others will change hands.
    Haven't Ashcroft's polls being showing marginals swings equal to, or greater than the national?
    That was my understanding and one of the reasons I was so certain of Lab most seats even before last night's convergence, so I hope I had that right.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I suggest that if, against all the odds (or at least the polls) JackW is vindicated, then we should have JackW's ARSE cast in gold and kept at PB Towers under glass, for all to admire.

    This is entirely feasible, by the way.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2359590/Would-cast-brass-How-turning-bits-body-art-new-middle-class-trend.html

    Might I suggest Damien Hirst be commissioned to undertake a platinum and diamond encrusted ARSE named :

    "For the Love of ARSE"

    My own ARSE is a bit wobbly. My stakes are biggest on Lab most seats and turnout under 65%. I do have some side punts too, including most of the Jack W dozen.

    Finally people are starting to talk about politics at work. I have persuaded a few to vote for the yellow peril fairly easily including in Bosworth, where they stand a chance. We LibDems may not be as out of favour as I thought.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Laurus said:

    "We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.

    Correct, and I'm astonished the Tories didn't do more to counter that in the campaign, some sort of positive message about the future.

    Instead it was all unpleasantly personal on the perfectly decent Ed Miliband, and the "promise" of more austerity.

    I think the Tories have been guilty of believing their own spin, on Miliband, on the economy, on Crosby's swingback, on everything.
    Miliband is duplicitous not decent. Labour are not slow at smearing Cameron with wanting to kill the NHS. their last PPB was one long smear.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Cyclefree said:

    "We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.


    I am paying more tax than I was under Labour and have lost child benefit. And my pension savings have been attacked (again).

    It is nonsense to say that I have never had it so good. I am worse off than I was and will likely be even worse off if Labour get in. I will not starve obviously and there are plenty who are much much less well off than me. So this is not a whinge.

    I just find it strange that you say that people have never had it so good. The time for saying that was under Labour - thought much of the wealth was illusory.

    The wealthiest have never had it so good. QE, rising stock markets, booming property prices, low interest rates. If you are earning in the top rate band and are asset rich the last few years have been fantastic. If you are paying a bit more tax, you are not noticing it. As you say, below that level it is much, much harder.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Laurus said:

    TGOHF said:

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    acf2310 said:

    Lab edge up to 265 on SPIN, Con remain at 288.

    BF is DC 1.95 EM 2.08
    Con most seats 1.25 Lab most seats 4.8

    Anything to move these figures before the exit poll?

    The Lab most seats 1.01 train seems to have broken down at the 4.8 station..
    Quite quite bizarre. If the Tories are more than 20 seats ahead, Cameron will, I reckon, be PM.

    Yet, the polls, the polls.

    *bangs head lightly with Labour Immigration mug*
    There are scenarios where the polls and the markets are right - an SNP style wave of mega majorities across safe Labour seats - which there is evidence of in Lord A's mega poll by region.

    This. Labour will get bigger majorities in its safe seats and what became its marginals as lots of Red LDs who went over to Clegg in 2010 come home. But in Tory marginals there are far fewer of them because last time they held their noses and voted Labour as the Tories were a far worse option. They'll vote Labour again this time with more enthusiasm, but just as there were not enough of them to keep the seats red then there will not be enough of them now.

    There is no real doubt that the Labour vote share will go up today - despite the Scottish carnage - but outside of London and maybe parts of NW England it will go up in the wrong places from a seat-winning perspective. And in the Midlands it will be bleak. Nick may win his seat, but very few others will change hands.
    Haven't Ashcroft's polls being showing marginals swings equal to, or greater than the national?
    Nope, the nationals now show a swing of 5% in E&W, while LordA has it at 3.5% .
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    TGOHF said:

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    acf2310 said:

    Lab edge up to 265 on SPIN, Con remain at 288.

    BF is DC 1.95 EM 2.08
    Con most seats 1.25 Lab most seats 4.8

    Anything to move these figures before the exit poll?

    The Lab most seats 1.01 train seems to have broken down at the 4.8 station..
    Quite quite bizarre. If the Tories are more than 20 seats ahead, Cameron will, I reckon, be PM.

    Yet, the polls, the polls.

    *bangs head lightly with Labour Immigration mug*
    There are scenarios where the polls and the markets are right - an SNP style wave of mega majorities across safe Labour seats - which there is evidence of in Lord A's mega poll by region.

    This. Labour will get bigger majorities in its safe seats and what became its marginals as lots of Red LDs who went over to Clegg in 2010 come home. But in Tory marginals there are far fewer of them because last time they held their noses and voted Labour as the Tories were a far worse option. They'll vote Labour again this time with more enthusiasm, but just as there were not enough of them to keep the seats red then there will not be enough of them now.

    There is no real doubt that the Labour vote share will go up today - despite the Scottish carnage - but outside of London and maybe parts of NW England it will go up in the wrong places from a seat-winning perspective. And in the Midlands it will be bleak. Nick may win his seat, but very few others will change hands.
    Someone please keep our SO away from sharp implements and balcony edges!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    hunchman said:

    Carnyx said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Disturbing reports of people being turned away from an Annan polling station by burly blokes if they say they don't support a certain party.

    — Ruth Davidson MSP (@RuthDavidsonMSP) May 7, 2015
    I assume the intimation is that these "burly blokes" are SNP.
    https://twitter.com/dgcouncil/status/596302016416247810
    The most shocking thing about that photo is it appears there is a man in Scotland wearing a Conservative rosette.

    #megaTick
    Annan is in DCT Mundell's seat you do know! !

    Sign of a programmer #43: You read the comment above and think: what on earth is a Discrete Cosine Transform Mundell?
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Cyclefree said:

    "We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.


    I am paying more tax than I was under Labour and have lost child benefit. And my pension savings have been attacked (again).

    It is nonsense to say that I have never had it so good. I am worse off than I was and will likely be even worse off if Labour get in. I will not starve obviously and there are plenty who are much much less well off than me. So this is not a whinge.

    I just find it strange that you say that people have never had it so good. The time for saying that was under Labour - thought much of the wealth was illusory.
    You are ideal target material for the Labour taxman.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    acf2310 said:

    acf2310 said:

    Slightly surprised to see this - understand re Bury North but Bury South (from a Labour tweeter)?

    I know my constituency is safe but those voting in Bury North and South - its so, so tight. Vote for @Frith4BuryNorth and @IvanLewis_MP

    Bury South is really weird -- I live in Bury N and do a little work for the Tories. I'm hearing that Ivan Lewis is delivering far more leaflets that you'd expect in a safe seat, often focussed on how voting UKIP will 'let the Tories in.' My sense is that UKIP have a decent candidate in Bury S -- he's not going to win, but he might give the Tory candidate something of a shot if he does well in Lab heartlands like Radcliffe.

    That being said I'd be staggered if Ivan Lewis gets less than a 4000 majority. I'd also be surprised if the majority in Bury N isn't less than 1000, whichever way it goes.
    I'd go along with SeanT's subsequent explanation below, but as a resident of Bury South, I've been pointing out over recent weeks on here the surprising amount of Lewis leaflets. I do think the constituency is very much gentrifying (I've moved there since 2010... :-) ), certainly more so than Bury N which has always been fairly affluent in pockets, and it is of course one of the most heavily Jewish constituencies in the land and there were recent polls (UK) suggesting the Jewish vote was leaning heavily Tory IIRC.

    So, maybe, just maybe it is indeed close - helped by a surprising UKIP showing (it's next door to Heywood & Middleton too)....
    I was surprised that Michelle Wiseman didn't do a little better last time. Are you getting much contact from Daniel Critchlow?

    No. Not a sausage. Had to Google last night to find his name. His campaign website is sparse to say the least and has hardly been touched in 2015 at all.

    Clearly the Tories don't give a rats ass about fighting the seat.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Another van with a megaphone.

    www.vectis.co.uk/Page/ViewLot.aspx?LotId=92185&Section=27&Start=40
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    If we're looking at UKIP threat in Labour traditional heartlands...I would watch out Harlepool....CLP is not particularly on the spot...
    football club urged theirs fans to think twice before voting for the sitting MP...ok, I am told Hartlepool football club is a bit crap anyway and almost got relegated...but anyway
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Fair point

    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 24s24 seconds ago
    Worried Polling's Tied? Remember Israeli Pollsters Said Netanyahu Would Lose, He Stormed It http://guyfawk.es/1P3ve5j
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Roger said:

    Cyclefree

    It is nonsense to say that I have never had it so good. I am worse off than I was and will likely be even worse off if Labour get in. I will not starve obviously and there are plenty who are much much less well off than me. So this is not a whinge.

    Well you mustn't own your own house or if you do it must be very small or you must have very little equity in it otherwise it's very difficult to be worse off than you were five years ago


    House prices going up don't really help anyone. It just means more expense if you want to trade up, more stamp duty for moving, and envious politicians wanting to tax you more for no benefit.

    "Equity" doesn't mean jack by itself.

    If you die and can finally realise the property value, then you still don't get to enjoy the money yourself.

  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    The betting advert which keeps getting linked to is beginning to really annoy me now. One slip and we jump to the page.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    I know this is meaningless but I spoke to a labour activist in a labour lib dem marginal who thought it wasn't as plain sailing as they'd hoped and the lib Dems we're not lying down as they were expected to.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited May 2015
    TGOHF said:

    Fair point

    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 24s24 seconds ago
    Worried Polling's Tied? Remember Israeli Pollsters Said Netanyahu Would Lose, He Stormed It http://guyfawk.es/1P3ve5j

    Is it a reasonable comparison though?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,992
    Afternoon all :)

    Mrs Stodge, who is at home in East Ham today, has reported the following from the Labour heartland.

    "The TUSC candidate is still at her impromptu stall in the High Street while outside the polling stations there are four or five Labour supporters and no one from other parties. I saw one of our local Councillors chatting to residents in the street outside. I think there was some Conservative leafleting at the tube station this morning but I missed it."

    My prediction is not that Stephen Timms will hold the seat - that's the epitome of the no-brainer. He won 70% last time - I think he may be a little lower this time. The Conservatives will be just shy of 20% with UKIP just saving their deposit followed by the TUSC, LDs, Greens and the Community Justice Party who will all lose theirs.

    Timms' majority last time was 27,000 - I suspect nearer 25,000 today. I also expect a quicker declaration though there is a by-election today in Stratford New Town Ward - Labour will hold it easily but it will be interesting to see if the influx of "new money" is having the same political effect as it has along the riverside in Tower Hamlets.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    I put a losable few quid on Lab 11-20 seats ahead at 14/1 with Betfair.

    If the polls are right, and there's some tactical voting you never know.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    "We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.

    And yet today you've voted for a party under whose government it was more the case than it is now, and whose policies would have the direct consequence of making inequality worse in the future.

    It is indeed a funny old world.

    Possibly. But I look at the possibility of a Tory majority government though and believe that under its rule that would definitely happen. Selling off social housing that in five years will mostly be in the hands of buy to let landlords, huge cuts to child and working tax credits, entrenching unearned wealth with the raising of IHT thresholds, and so on. I am afraid I just do not think these are good policies and I think they will prove to be extremely damaging.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    TGOHF said:

    Fair point

    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 24s24 seconds ago
    Worried Polling's Tied? Remember Israeli Pollsters Said Netanyahu Would Lose, He Stormed It http://guyfawk.es/1P3ve5j

    Not really since I remember everyone saying before the Israeli election that their opinion polls were notoriously rubbish.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    My only bet is a modest one on Labour having the most seats. I think the Scottish voters will see sense and there will not be a wipe out. Certainly if I lived in Scotland I would put all party loyalty aside and vote for whichever unionist party was most likely to beat the SNP. As per usual the stupid Tories will be left lamenting the days they turned down AV and fairer boundaries.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    "We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.

    I agree that a clear political break point in this parliament was the 2012 budget, particularly the rise of UKIP at the expense of the Tories.

    However, I think this government has been as financially and economically responsible for the average man as could have been expected under virtually any scenario.

    The problem has been its branding, selling of itself, and explaining of itself. All of which have been woeful.
    The government is a coalition of two parties and Vince Cable and Fallon are in one of them.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I suggest that if, against all the odds (or at least the polls) JackW is vindicated, then we should have JackW's ARSE cast in gold and kept at PB Towers under glass, for all to admire.

    This is entirely feasible, by the way.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2359590/Would-cast-brass-How-turning-bits-body-art-new-middle-class-trend.html

    Might I suggest Damien Hirst be commissioned to undertake a platinum and diamond encrusted ARSE named :

    "For the Love of ARSE"

    Wouldn't Hirst pickle the by now famous anatomical part and then cut it into slices?
    Salt ARSE as a preservative might be more flavoursome especially if one was inclined to the Jewish persuasion .... and with a few fava beans and a decent chianti if named Solomon Lecter

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2015
    RodCrosby said:

    Three Labour canvassers knocking on the door, including an 'ethnic' Cockney!

    Not a good use of resources...

    Perfectly good use of resources. The Labour Party has never been short of volunteers on Election Day. I have been in committee rooms at 7:30 pm, when we have been given lists in streets that had already been knocked up 4 times before.

    Funny, few people actually object. Partly because those whose doors are knocked are known supporters. Best way to avoid door-knocking is guess what, vote !
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    new thread
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TGOHF said:

    Fair point

    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 24s24 seconds ago
    Worried Polling's Tied? Remember Israeli Pollsters Said Netanyahu Would Lose, He Stormed It http://guyfawk.es/1P3ve5j

    Is Guido HYUFD?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Roger said:

    I know this is meaningless but I spoke to a labour activist in a labour lib dem marginal who thought it wasn't as plain sailing as they'd hoped and the lib Dems we're not lying down as they were expected to.

    A couple of posters on the Vote-2012 website today are very bullish about Lib Dem chances in Birmingham Yardley .
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Chris_A said:

    As per usual the stupid Tories will be left lamenting the days they turned down AV and fairer boundaries.

    No

    Rejecting AV was patriotic duty.

    Fairer boundaries were a welch by the Fib Dems.

    Apart from that, good post.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,081

    acf2310 said:

    acf2310 said:

    Slightly surprised to see this - understand re Bury North but Bury South (from a Labour tweeter)?

    I know my constituency is safe but those voting in Bury North and South - its so, so tight. Vote for @Frith4BuryNorth and @IvanLewis_MP

    Bury South is really weird -- I live in Bury N and do a little work for the Tories. I'm hearing that Ivan Lewis is delivering far more leaflets that you'd expect in a safe seat, often focussed on how voting UKIP will 'let the Tories in.' My sense is that UKIP have a decent candidate in Bury S -- he's not going to win, but he might give the Tory candidate something of a shot if he does well in Lab heartlands like Radcliffe.

    That being said I'd be staggered if Ivan Lewis gets less than a 4000 majority. I'd also be surprised if the majority in Bury N isn't less than 1000, whichever way it goes.
    I'd go along with SeanT's subsequent explanation below, but as a resident of Bury South, I've been pointing out over recent weeks on here the surprising amount of Lewis leaflets. I do think the constituency is very much gentrifying (I've moved there since 2010... :-) ), certainly more so than Bury N which has always been fairly affluent in pockets, and it is of course one of the most heavily Jewish constituencies in the land and there were recent polls (UK) suggesting the Jewish vote was leaning heavily Tory IIRC.

    So, maybe, just maybe it is indeed close - helped by a surprising UKIP showing (it's next door to Heywood & Middleton too)....
    I was surprised that Michelle Wiseman didn't do a little better last time. Are you getting much contact from Daniel Critchlow?

    No. Not a sausage. Had to Google last night to find his name. His campaign website is sparse to say the least and has hardly been touched in 2015 at all.

    Clearly the Tories don't give a rats ass about fighting the seat.
    Bob - I met Daniel Critchlow when he was fighting the Wythenshawe by-election - he put a lot of effort into it for an unwinnable seat. Seemed pleasant and personable. Surprised he's seeming less bothered for Bury South, where there has at least been Tory representation within living memory.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I suggest that if, against all the odds (or at least the polls) JackW is vindicated, then we should have JackW's ARSE cast in gold and kept at PB Towers under glass, for all to admire.

    This is entirely feasible, by the way.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2359590/Would-cast-brass-How-turning-bits-body-art-new-middle-class-trend.html

    Might I suggest Damien Hirst be commissioned to undertake a platinum and diamond encrusted ARSE named :

    "For the Love of ARSE"

    My own ARSE is a bit wobbly. My stakes are biggest on Lab most seats and turnout under 65%. I do have some side punts too, including most of the Jack W dozen.

    Finally people are starting to talk about politics at work. I have persuaded a few to vote for the yellow peril fairly easily including in Bosworth, where they stand a chance. We LibDems may not be as out of favour as I thought.
    As a wobbly and seemingly partial ARSE denier you may be forced to sever a hand as punishment.

    However as a man of medicine you'll be able to save the NHS the trouble and do the surgery yourself. :smile:

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Artist said:

    I'm surprised there isn't more unsubstantiated gossip floating about...

    All very quiet.

    There's some strange things going on out there.

    Very strange.....

    ....but embargoed until 10 pm....!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    surbiton said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Three Labour canvassers knocking on the door, including an 'ethnic' Cockney!

    Not a good use of resources...

    Perfectly good use of resources. The Labour Party has never been short of volunteers on Election Day. I have been in committee rooms at 7:30 pm, when we have been given lists in streets that had already been knocked up 4 times before.

    Funny, few people actually object. Partly because those whose doors are knocked are known supporters. Best way to avoid door-knocking is guess what, vote !
    As I told them, I'd already voted...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2015
    Some bookies have now shortened Labour most seats to 4. Still good value. DYOR.

    THe bookies are going to make a killing on this one. Less with Next Prime Minister after General Election since until yesterday Miliband was the favourite.

    I find it odd that we have Labour minority government AND Cameron next Prime Minister after GE - both favourites !
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516

    Roger said:

    I know this is meaningless but I spoke to a labour activist in a labour lib dem marginal who thought it wasn't as plain sailing as they'd hoped and the lib Dems we're not lying down as they were expected to.

    A couple of posters on the Vote-2012 website today are very bullish about Lib Dem chances in Birmingham Yardley .
    I hope JH stays in, he's a good constituency MP.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Roger said:

    I know this is meaningless but I spoke to a labour activist in a labour lib dem marginal who thought it wasn't as plain sailing as they'd hoped and the lib Dems we're not lying down as they were expected to.

    Clegg bet the farm on attracting smart younger voters and those who admired competence rather than ineffectual protest.

    Perhaps he's not lost every acre ...
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    acf2310 said:

    acf2310 said:

    Slightly surprised to see this - understand re Bury North but Bury South (from a Labour tweeter)?

    I know my constituency is safe but those voting in Bury North and South - its so, so tight. Vote for @Frith4BuryNorth and @IvanLewis_MP

    Bury South is really weird -- I live in Bury N and do a little work for the Tories. I'm hearing that Ivan Lewis is delivering far more leaflets that you'd expect in a safe seat, often focussed on how voting UKIP will 'let the Tories in.' My sense is that UKIP have a decent candidate in Bury S -- he's not going to win, but he might give the Tory candidate something of a shot if he does well in Lab heartlands like Radcliffe.

    That being said I'd be staggered if Ivan Lewis gets less than a 4000 majority. I'd also be surprised if the majority in Bury N isn't less than 1000, whichever way it goes.
    I'd go along with SeanT's subsequent explanation below, but as a resident of Bury South, I've been pointing out over recent weeks on here the surprising amount of Lewis leaflets. I do think the constituency is very much gentrifying (I've moved there since 2010... :-) ), certainly more so than Bury N which has always been fairly affluent in pockets, and it is of course one of the most heavily Jewish constituencies in the land and there were recent polls (UK) suggesting the Jewish vote was leaning heavily Tory IIRC.

    So, maybe, just maybe it is indeed close - helped by a surprising UKIP showing (it's next door to Heywood & Middleton too)....
    I was surprised that Michelle Wiseman didn't do a little better last time. Are you getting much contact from Daniel Critchlow?

    No. Not a sausage. Had to Google last night to find his name. His campaign website is sparse to say the least and has hardly been touched in 2015 at all.

    Clearly the Tories don't give a rats ass about fighting the seat.
    Seems Critchlow is a Church of England vicar. I know there are numerous ulster Protestant ministers and maybe Alan Beith was some kind of clergyman but have their been CofE clergy in the commons before ?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AndyJS said:

    Darlington council really are a bunch of incompetents aren't they.

    Another ballot paper c*ck up in Bournemouth for the council elections . Kinson North voters had ballot papers for Kinson South candidates and vice versa .
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RodCrosby said:

    surbiton said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Three Labour canvassers knocking on the door, including an 'ethnic' Cockney!

    Not a good use of resources...

    Perfectly good use of resources. The Labour Party has never been short of volunteers on Election Day. I have been in committee rooms at 7:30 pm, when we have been given lists in streets that had already been knocked up 4 times before.

    Funny, few people actually object. Partly because those whose doors are knocked are known supporters. Best way to avoid door-knocking is guess what, vote !
    As I told them, I'd already voted...
    Within an hour, the records will be updated and they won't bother.

    Why is the Labour party knocking on your door to vote ?
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807

    "We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.

    And yet today you've voted for a party under whose government it was more the case than it is now, and whose policies would have the direct consequence of making inequality worse in the future.

    It is indeed a funny old world.

    ... huge cuts to child and working tax credits...
    I recall the same scare stories in the last few days of GE 2010 targeted at women being credited for the late swing that prevented the Tory majority... Is the same thing happening...

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I suggest that if, against all the odds (or at least the polls) JackW is vindicated, then we should have JackW's ARSE cast in gold and kept at PB Towers under glass, for all to admire.

    This is entirely feasible, by the way.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2359590/Would-cast-brass-How-turning-bits-body-art-new-middle-class-trend.html

    Might I suggest Damien Hirst be commissioned to undertake a platinum and diamond encrusted ARSE named :

    "For the Love of ARSE"

    My own ARSE is a bit wobbly. My stakes are biggest on Lab most seats and turnout under 65%. I do have some side punts too, including most of the Jack W dozen.

    Finally people are starting to talk about politics at work. I have persuaded a few to vote for the yellow peril fairly easily including in Bosworth, where they stand a chance. We LibDems may not be as out of favour as I thought.
    As a wobbly and seemingly partial ARSE denier you may be forced to sever a hand as punishment.

    However as a man of medicine you'll be able to save the NHS the trouble and do the surgery yourself. :smile:

    As a matter of interest what was your final turnout figure?

    I salute your indefatigability!

    Saturdays with no ARSE to peruse first thing are going to be a little dull.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366

    Ed in power won't change a lot, assuming the lights don't go out. Energy bills will rise to pay for the green initiatives and everyone's taxes will rise a little to pay for the Gaelgeld, but look on the bright side.

    Scots will be better off, and our carbon footprint will disappear. And everyone else will be equal so any misery will be shared.

    And lots of people will feel better about themselves.
  • rullkorullko Posts: 161
    Dair said:

    Haven't seen a megaphone car in years and years. Last one I saw (parked) was for a Anne McLaughlin council election years ago when I knew her through friends.

    There's at least one currently on the go in Glasgow NE, where she's standing.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Speedy said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fair point

    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 24s24 seconds ago
    Worried Polling's Tied? Remember Israeli Pollsters Said Netanyahu Would Lose, He Stormed It http://guyfawk.es/1P3ve5j

    Is Guido HYUFD?
    I suppose I should ask before its too late - does HYUFD stand for anything?
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    "We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.

    And yet today you've voted for a party under whose government it was more the case than it is now, and whose policies would have the direct consequence of making inequality worse in the future.

    It is indeed a funny old world.

    Possibly. But I look at the possibility of a Tory majority government though and believe that under its rule that would definitely happen. Selling off social housing that in five years will mostly be in the hands of buy to let landlords, huge cuts to child and working tax credits, entrenching unearned wealth with the raising of IHT thresholds, and so on. I am afraid I just do not think these are good policies and I think they will prove to be extremely damaging.
    Thanks for reminding me why I voted Tory at 8 o'clock this morning.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721
    PaulM said:

    acf2310 said:

    acf2310 said:

    Slightly surprised to see this - understand re Bury North but Bury South (from a Labour tweeter)?

    I know my constituency is safe but those voting in Bury North and South - its so, so tight. Vote for @Frith4BuryNorth and @IvanLewis_MP

    Bury South is really weird -- I live in Bury N and do a little work for the Tories. I'm hearing that Ivan Lewis is delivering far more leaflets that you'd expect in a safe seat, often focussed on how voting UKIP will 'let the Tories in.' My sense is that UKIP have a decent candidate in Bury S -- he's not going to win, but he might give the Tory candidate something of a shot if he does well in Lab heartlands like Radcliffe.

    That being said I'd be staggered if Ivan Lewis gets less than a 4000 majority. I'd also be surprised if the majority in Bury N isn't less than 1000, whichever way it goes.
    I'd go along with SeanT's subsequent explanation below, but as a resident of Bury South, I've been pointing out over recent weeks on here the surprising amount of Lewis leaflets. I do think the constituency is very much gentrifying (I've moved there since 2010... :-) ), certainly more so than Bury N which has always been fairly affluent in pockets, and it is of course one of the most heavily Jewish constituencies in the land and there were recent polls (UK) suggesting the Jewish vote was leaning heavily Tory IIRC.

    So, maybe, just maybe it is indeed close - helped by a surprising UKIP showing (it's next door to Heywood & Middleton too)....
    I was surprised that Michelle Wiseman didn't do a little better last time. Are you getting much contact from Daniel Critchlow?

    No. Not a sausage. Had to Google last night to find his name. His campaign website is sparse to say the least and has hardly been touched in 2015 at all.

    Clearly the Tories don't give a rats ass about fighting the seat.
    Seems Critchlow is a Church of England vicar. I know there are numerous ulster Protestant ministers and maybe Alan Beith was some kind of clergyman but have their been CofE clergy in the commons before ?
    Can one hold a living and be an MP? I thought that somewhere I read that one couldn’t.

    Secondly, when my wife and I went to vote this morning the clerk clearly told us to put one cross on each paper (we’ve council elections as well) I pointed out that there were two council seats up fior grabs and after a moments thought she said "Oh Yes. Two crosses on the yellow paper!”
    "I wonder" said my wife as we went out “how many others she’s said that to?”
This discussion has been closed.